Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 21

GBP/USD Hits Lows: Weak UK Data and a Strong Dollar Weigh on the Pound

The GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.3252, its lowest level since 11 May 2025, as a resurgent US dollar and disappointing UK economic data weighed on the pound.

Market sentiment has shifted from concerns about inflation to fears of an economic slowdown, while optimism surrounding new trade agreements has bolstered the dollar.

Although warmer weather boosted food sales, the broader economic outlook remains fragile after worse-than-expected PMI figures. This has reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could cut interest rates by 25 basis points as early as August, with another potential reduction before year-end to stimulate growth.

Meanwhile, the dollar gained strength following the announcement of a US-EU trade deal, which imposes 15% tariffs on most European exports, including cars. The agreement has averted a further escalation in trade tensions, providing additional support for the greenback.

However, not all European leaders view the deal as favourable. Many argue that the terms disproportionately disadvantage the EU. While the UK maintains its separate agreements, the broader economic ripple effects are still being felt, given the interconnected nature of global markets.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD continues its downward trajectory towards 1.3152, with a consolidation range currently forming around 1.3268. A downside breakout from this range could see the pair extend losses towards 1.3152, followed by a potential corrective rebound to 1.3370. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the hourly chart, the pair declined to 1.3225 before correcting to 1.3270. Further downside movement towards 1.3152 is anticipated today, with the Stochastic oscillator confirming this outlook: its signal line has crossed below 80 and is trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound remains under pressure amid a stronger dollar and a lacklustre UK economic performance. With rate cut expectations mounting and global trade dynamics shifting, further volatility in GBP/USD is likely. Traders will be watching key technical levels for confirmation of the next directional move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Jul

USD/JPY in Correction as Markets Await Signals from Fed and BoJ

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell to 147.92 on Wednesday, with the Japanese yen recovering some of its early-week losses as the US dollar softened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold, market focus remains squarely on whether policymakers will signal a potential rate cut in September.

Simultaneously, investors are assessing the outcome of this week’s US–China trade talks in Stockholm, which concluded on Tuesday without an extension of the current trade truce.

Domestically, attention turns to the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision. The central bank is forecast to maintain its current interest rate as it evaluates the economic impact of US tariffs. The BoJ’s quarterly outlook report may also see an upward revision to its inflation forecasts.

Political uncertainty adds another layer of complexity, with growing pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign. However, the Prime Minister has firmly denied any intention to step down.

Notably, despite broader US dollar strength across markets, the USD/JPY pair has not fully reflected this trend due to counterbalancing factors.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to consolidate around 147.90, having extended its range upwards to 148.77. Following a retest of 147.90 from above, the next likely move is a push higher towards 149.11, with a potential continuation towards 150.30 if bullish momentum holds. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and points firmly upwards.

H1 Chart:

Switching to the H1 chart, the pair is forming a consolidation range around 147.90. A breakout to the upside could see a move towards 149.11, followed by a retracement to 148.44. Conversely, a downside break may trigger a decline towards 145.90. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, as its signal line sits above 20 and is trending upwards.

Conclusion

The USD/JPY pair remains in a corrective phase, with near-term direction hinging on policy signals from the Fed and BoJ. While technical indicators currently support a bullish bias, traders should remain alert to the possibility of breakout moves as confirmation.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Jul

EUR/USD Under Seller Control: The Deal’s Consequences Could Be Severe

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair tumbled to 1.1579 by Tuesday, marking its sharpest intraday decline since 6 November last year.

The euro’s plunge followed the announcement of a new trade agreement between the US and the European Union, which imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods – a move set to significantly benefit the American economy.

European leaders reacted fiercely. France condemned the deal as one-sided, while German Chancellor Merz warned of serious risks to domestic industry. In response, Donald Trump reiterated that countries unwilling to negotiate bilateral agreements could face tariffs of 15–20%, up from the 10% rate in April.

Attention now turns to the US Federal Reserve’s July meeting, which concludes on Wednesday evening. While no rate change is expected, traders will scrutinise signals of a potential September cut, especially amid mounting White House pressure and trade-related uncertainties.

Key US economic data due this week – including the Core PCE Price Index and Nonfarm Payrolls report – will offer further clues on inflation and the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD pair has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, typically a reversal formation. The price has now broken below the 1.1590 support, approaching the pattern’s lower boundary. A confirmed breakdown could lead to a decline towards 1.1490, with 1.1200 as a potential medium-term target.

The MACD indicator reinforces this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward, suggesting sustained selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the hourly chart, the pair had been range-bound near 1.1645 before breaking lower, extending its downward move towards 1.1523. A pullback to retest 1.1645 (now as resistance) remains possible before any further downside.

Beyond that, the bearish trend is likely to resume, with 1.1490 acting as the next key support. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, as its signal line is below 50 and is trending downward towards 20, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Sellers remain firmly in control, with fundamental and technical factors both favouring further downside. A break below 1.1590 could accelerate losses, while key US data and Fed rhetoric this week may dictate near-term volatility.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Jul

Currency Speculators cut their British Pound Bets to 22-Week Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Mexican Peso, Canadian Dollar & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (5,942 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,751 contracts), the Japanese Yen (3,063 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,685 contracts), Bitcoin (634 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (214 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-28,621 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,797 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,336 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,428 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-2,706 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculator Bets fall to 22-Week Low

Highlighting this week’s currency speculators data is the sharp drop in the British Pound Sterling speculator bets.

The GBP speculator positions fell this week by -28,621 contracts and dropped for the second straight week. This was also the fifth time over the last six weeks that speculators have reduced their positioning for a 6-week drop by -51,064 contracts. This week’s decline marked the largest one-week drop in just about a year and takes the current speculator standing (+570 contracts) to the lowest level since February 18th, a span of 22 weeks.

Helping dent the speculator position for the British Pound Sterling is the outlook that the Bank of England could be reducing their benchmark interest rates. According to Reuters, traders see around an 80% chance of an interest rate reduction as early as August.

Despite the negative sentiment this week for the British Pound Sterling, the currency’s exchange rate continues to be near the highest levels since 2022 against the US dollar. This week, the GBP currency closed just below the 1.3500 level and saw a modest gain for the week.

Elsewhere in currency market prices:
– The Euro led the major market prices with an increase of over 1% against the US Dollar this week.
– The Mexican Peso, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen all saw higher exchange rates against the USD, varying from 0.75% to 1% gains.
– The US Dollar Index was the leading loser on the week with a decline of -0.84%.
– Bitcoin also saw a very modest small decline after recent all-time highs.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (80 percent) and the EuroFX (77 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent), New Zealand Dollar (61 percent) and the Mexican Peso (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (77.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (80.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (79.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (57.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.2 percent)
Bitcoin (13.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.0 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the EuroFX (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-11 percent), the US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.4 percent)
EuroFX (12.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.4 percent)
Bitcoin (3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	37.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	25.9	9.7
– Net Position:	-3,451	3,988	-537
– Gross Longs:	16,925	13,234	2,946
– Gross Shorts:	20,376	9,246	3,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	94.4	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	8.2	11.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	55.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	76.7	5.2
– Net Position:	125,515	-177,713	52,198
– Gross Longs:	248,380	469,100	96,216
– Gross Shorts:	122,865	646,813	44,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	20.7	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-9.0	-12.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	34.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.7	37.7	13.8
– Net Position:	570	-5,739	5,169
– Gross Longs:	93,760	67,928	32,179
– Gross Shorts:	93,190	73,667	27,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	61.5	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	22.7	-7.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 106,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	32.4	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	69.9	10.5
– Net Position:	106,645	-117,360	10,715
– Gross Longs:	164,411	101,532	43,676
– Gross Shorts:	57,766	218,892	32,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	21.3	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	13.0	-31.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	69.0	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	34.0	20.7
– Net Position:	-26,065	26,431	-366
– Gross Longs:	8,087	52,184	15,305
– Gross Shorts:	34,152	25,753	15,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	42.6	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	10.7	-7.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -70,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	70.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	34.5	12.4
– Net Position:	-70,343	71,510	-1,167
– Gross Longs:	23,086	140,760	23,647
– Gross Shorts:	93,429	69,250	24,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	43.9	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-8.3	-8.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	65.1	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	17.2	12.0
– Net Position:	-81,255	77,341	3,914
– Gross Longs:	25,066	105,142	23,352
– Gross Shorts:	106,321	27,801	19,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	76.0	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.1	-6.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	51.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	43.9	10.0
– Net Position:	-3,162	3,291	-129
– Gross Longs:	11,955	22,656	4,276
– Gross Shorts:	15,117	19,365	4,405
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.8	37.8	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-19.7	-7.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	37.6	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	72.6	1.7
– Net Position:	56,064	-60,340	4,276
– Gross Longs:	99,081	64,766	7,251
– Gross Shorts:	43,017	125,106	2,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	43.2	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	2.9	6.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	31.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	63.0	1.1
– Net Position:	25,857	-29,388	3,531
– Gross Longs:	58,202	29,484	4,575
– Gross Shorts:	32,345	58,872	1,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	33.0	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.8	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.4	5.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.4	1.3	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,852	1,247	605
– Gross Longs:	24,447	1,659	1,710
– Gross Shorts:	26,299	412	1,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	84.4	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-11.0	17.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Jul

EUR/USD Under Pressure Despite Weaker US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair dipped to 1.1738 on Friday as the US dollar staged a modest recovery, though it remains on track for a weekly decline. Investors continue to weigh developments in trade negotiations while awaiting next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Recent reports suggest the US and EU are nearing a trade agreement, which would impose tariffs of 15% on most European goods, mirroring the recent deal struck with Japan.

Amid this backdrop, monetary policy is coming into sharper focus. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates on hold at its upcoming meeting, as policymakers monitor the potential inflationary impact of new tariffs.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has softened his tone towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell following a historic visit to the central bank’s headquarters. Trump reiterated that he has no intention of removing Powell, despite earlier speculation.

Interest rate futures currently reflect expectations of a rate cut totalling 43 basis points by the end of 2025, with the consensus forecast anticipating one cut in September and another in December.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD has completed an upward wave towards 1.1788 on the H4 chart. Today, we expect a downward impulse to 1.1723, followed by a potential rebound to 1.1755. The pair is likely to enter a consolidation range near the peak of this upward wave, with a possible breakout to the downside towards 1.1670 as the primary target. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero but is trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 timeframe, the pair is forming the initial structure of a downward wave targeting 1.1723. The first local target at 1.1733 has already been met. A corrective rise to 1.1755 may follow before another decline towards 1.1723. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD faces near-term pressure, but broader dollar weakness persists. Traders should monitor developments in trade policy and forthcoming Fed communications for directional cues, while technicals suggest further consolidation with a bearish bias.

Disclaimer

Forex and Currency News Opinions

24 Jul

Pound Strengthens: Trade Tariffs and Economic Data Boost GBP/USD

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair climbed to a two-week high on Thursday, holding near 1.3578, bolstered by improved global risk sentiment following the US-Japan trade agreement.

The deal, which replaces previously proposed 25% tariffs with a 15% levy, also includes the creation of a $550 billion investment fund to support the US economy. President Donald Trump hailed the agreement as mutually beneficial, further lifting market confidence.

Investors are now turning their attention to key UK economic indicators. PMI forecasts suggest the smallest contraction in manufacturing activity in six months, accompanied by the sharpest rise in services sector growth in nearly a year. Retail sales are also expected to rebound, aided by recent warm weather.

However, concerns linger after the UK reported a June budget deficit of £20.7 billion – the second-highest June figure since 1993. Rising inflation-linked bond repayments pushed debt servicing costs to £16.4 billion, adding pressure on public finances.

Amid these developments, speculation is mounting that Chancellor Rachel Reeves could announce tax increases as early as the autumn to address fiscal challenges.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD completed an upward wave to 1.3535, forming a consolidation range around this level. A breakout above this range could extend gains towards 1.3593. However, a subsequent correction downwards to 1.3530 remains possible. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line sits above zero and is pointing firmly upward.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair finding support at 1.3462, with the current growth wave reaching its initial target of 1.3585. A short-term pullback to 1.3530 may occur before another upward move towards 1.3593. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, as its signal line hovers below 5 and is trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The GBP/USD rally reflects an improvement in risk sentiment and anticipation of stronger UK economic data. However, fiscal concerns and technical indicators suggest potential volatility ahead. Traders should monitor PMI releases and fiscal policy announcements for further direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Jul

USD/JPY Falls as Japan and US Reach Trade Agreement

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair dropped to 146.91 on Wednesday, marking a one-week low, following news that the US and Japan have finalised a trade deal.

US President Donald Trump announced that the agreement will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. Additionally, Japan has committed to investing $550 billion into the US economy while granting American goods greater access to key sectors of its domestic market.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba confirmed his awareness of the negotiations but refrained from disclosing specifics, stressing his commitment to protecting “national interests.” Japanese media reports suggest Ishiba may consider resigning depending on the outcome of the tariff discussions.

Political uncertainty in Japan has intensified after the ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house of parliament last weekend. This comes amid mounting pressure from US trade policy, further destabilising the yen’s position.

The combination of domestic political instability and external economic pressures has disrupted the yen’s typical role as a safe-haven asset, leaving the currency vulnerable to further fluctuations.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to consolidate around 147.07, with the range now extending downward to 146.20. The pair has retested 147.07 from above today, and we anticipate another potential decline toward 145.05, with a further downside target at 144.60. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range near 147.07. We expect a possible upward extension to 147.37 before another drop toward 146.30. A downward breakout from this range could open the path for a deeper decline to 145.05. This outlook is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward.

Conclusion

The USD/JPY pair remains under pressure amid trade-related developments and political uncertainty in Japan. Traders should monitor key support levels (145.05, 144.60) for potential bearish continuation, while any recovery above 147.37 could signal a short-term rebound.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Jul

EUR/USD Rises as Investors Remain Cautious Amid Mounting Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair climbed higher, settling near 1.1688 by Tuesday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key trade negotiation updates. The looming 1 August deadline –set by the US for new trade agreements – has kept markets on edge.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked on Monday that the quality of trade deals takes precedence over strict deadlines for the current administration. He added that President Donald Trump may extend the deadline for countries demonstrating constructive progress in negotiations.

Market attention has now shifted to an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in Washington. Investors are keen for any signals regarding future interest rate policy.

Despite mounting pressure from Trump for a rate cut, markets remain sceptical that such a move will materialise in the next Fed meeting.

With a light economic calendar at the start of the week, traders are focusing on broader macroeconomic factors.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range near 1.1640. Breaking upwards, the pair achieved its local correction target at 1.1716. Today, we anticipate a pullback towards 1.1640 (testing from above), followed by another upside move to 1.1726, where the correction’s potential is likely to be exhausted.

Subsequently, we expect a fresh decline towards 1.1560, with further downside potential to 1.1488. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and is trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has met its local growth target at 1.1716, with the entire upward move seen as a correction to the prior downtrend. Today, a decline towards 1.1640 is probable, followed by another rise to 1.1726.

This outlook is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line sits below 50 and is trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

While EUR/USD shows short-term bullish momentum, the broader trend remains bearish, with key resistance levels likely to cap gains before another downward move unfolds.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Jul

Euro Bets hit 83-week high, US Dollar Index Speculator Bets gain for 3rd Week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (7,625 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (321 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-24,798 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,573 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-4,956 contracts), the British Pound (-4,003 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,486 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,286 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-605 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-441 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-50 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Bets hit 83-week high, US Dollar Index Speculator Bets gain for 3rd Week

Highlighting the week for the currency markets this week was the Euro bets rising higher as well as a modest US Dollar Index comeback over the past three weeks.

The biggest mover with gains in speculative bets was the Euro which advanced for a second straight week and has now risen for eight out of the past ten weeks (for a 10-week improvement by +52,502 contracts). These gains have pushed the net speculator standing (currently at +128,221 contracts) to the highest level in 83-weeks, dating back to December 2023.

The US Dollar Index was the only other gainer in speculative bets on the week and the USD positions have risen for three straight weeks. Despite these gains, the US Dollar Index standing still remains in a small bearish position currently at -3,665 net contracts.

Elsewhere, the Brazilian Real saw a big drop in speculative positions by almost -25,000 contracts. The Brazilian Real positioning has been up and down over the last 10 weeks with big gains and big retreats. Currently, the Brazilian Real still has a positive net speculative position of almost +25,000 contracts.

The Japanese Yen saw another fall in speculator bets this week, with its overall net position standing at +103,582 contracts. This is down from the all-time high that was reached in April near +180,000 contracts. The Yen position has been clearly softening but still remains historically bullish with contracts over +100,000.

FX Price Changes this week

Overall, the Forex markets were pretty subdued in price changes for the week. The US Dollar Index was the only riser on the week and edged higher for a second week, up by approximately 0.70%. The Australian Dollar was the biggest decliner with a fall by over -1% on the week while the Japanese Yen was close to a -1% decline followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by almost -0.75%.

The US Dollar Index has made some gains over the last two weeks but prices stalled out around 98.60 on the upside this week and settled back down to end the week at 98.20. The U.S. Dollar Index is still down by over 10% since the beginning of the year and remains under that 100.00 psychological price level.

The Japanese Yen’s price uptrend has stalled and the currency has now fallen for three straight weeks (vs the USD). Meanwhile, the other currencies like the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and the Australian Dollar all saw slight declines on the week but still trade close to their highest levels of the year.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (79 percent) and the EuroFX (78 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (69 percent), Brazilian Real (64 percent) and the Swiss Franc (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Bitcoin (0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (23 percent) and the British Pound (46 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (77.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (79.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (82.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (55.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (68.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (56.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (84.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.1 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (32 percent) and the EuroFX (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the Swiss Franc (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-9 percent), Australian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-9.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-1.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	37.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	24.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-3,665	4,422	-757
– Gross Longs:	16,262	13,186	3,065
– Gross Shorts:	19,927	8,764	3,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.1	95.4	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	6.9	11.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 128,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	55.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	77.5	5.1
– Net Position:	128,221	-184,215	55,994
– Gross Longs:	242,096	451,525	97,608
– Gross Shorts:	113,875	635,740	41,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	18.4	92.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-15.7	1.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 29,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	26.7	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	46.7	14.0
– Net Position:	29,191	-37,481	8,290
– Gross Longs:	100,980	49,932	34,471
– Gross Shorts:	71,789	87,413	26,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	48.3	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	4.8	-11.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 103,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	33.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	68.3	11.2
– Net Position:	103,582	-110,846	7,264
– Gross Longs:	165,444	108,744	43,283
– Gross Shorts:	61,862	219,590	36,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	23.0	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	16.3	-38.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -22,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	66.7	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	35.7	20.3
– Net Position:	-22,637	23,016	-379
– Gross Longs:	9,959	49,559	14,677
– Gross Shorts:	32,596	26,543	15,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	37.0	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-4.7	-2.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	69.6	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	33.7	13.1
– Net Position:	-74,094	72,766	1,328
– Gross Longs:	21,924	141,093	27,836
– Gross Shorts:	96,018	68,327	26,508
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	44.5	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-16.0	10.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	64.5	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.9	16.3	14.4
– Net Position:	-74,919	72,528	2,391
– Gross Longs:	21,233	97,063	24,040
– Gross Shorts:	96,152	24,535	21,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	73.2	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.8	1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	38.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	47.8	9.7
– Net Position:	3,635	-4,003	368
– Gross Longs:	16,623	16,041	4,429
– Gross Shorts:	12,988	20,044	4,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	29.6	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.6	-31.0	3.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	38.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	72.5	1.7
– Net Position:	50,122	-56,173	6,051
– Gross Longs:	92,332	63,981	8,820
– Gross Shorts:	42,210	120,154	2,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	45.3	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	5.5	19.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	30.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	59.9	0.9
– Net Position:	24,172	-28,068	3,896
– Gross Longs:	60,809	28,965	4,761
– Gross Shorts:	36,637	57,033	865
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	34.1	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	4.7	4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -50 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	7.3	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.5	1.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,486	1,927	559
– Gross Longs:	24,282	2,287	1,629
– Gross Shorts:	26,768	360	1,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	6.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.5	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	-0.5	10.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

17 Jul

EUR/USD Under Pressure Amid Strong US Dollar Sentiment

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has dipped back into negative territory, trading at 1.1615 as the US dollar regains ground following yesterday’s losses.

Market sentiment was initially rattled by reports suggesting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could be dismissed. Although Donald Trump later described these rumours as “unlikely”, the speculation reignited concerns over the central bank’s independence.

On the macroeconomic front, weaker-than-expected US producer inflation data added to the case for potential Fed rate cuts later this year. June’s price index remained flat, contrary to forecasts of a modest rise.

Traders now await retail sales figures, which could provide further insight into the strength of US domestic demand.

Meanwhile, trade tensions persist as Trump reaffirmed plans to maintain 25% tariffs on Japanese imports while hinting at a potential new trade deal with India. Earlier in the week, he also signalled progress in negotiations with Indonesia. These developments suggest the White House is balancing its hardline trade stance with efforts to engage Asian partners.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair has formed a consolidation range following the breakdown from the growth channel at 1.1675 and has subsequently completed a downward move towards the local target of 1.1562. A correction back to the 1.1720 level has also taken place. At present, a new wave of decline is developing towards 1.1520. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the EUR/USD pair has executed a downward impulse to 1.1610, followed by a correction to 1.1658. Today, a tight consolidation range is expected to form around 1.1620. If the pair breaks lower from this range, a move towards 1.1585 becomes likely, with the potential for further downside continuation to 1.1520. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line lies below 50 and is heading sharply lower towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under pressure amid dollar strength, with technical indicators supporting further downside potential. Market focus now shifts to upcoming US retail sales data and evolving trade dynamics.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.