Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 81

Australia sees inflationary pressures easing. Bitcoin has reached a 3-month low

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.37%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.47%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.24%. Investor sentiment continued to be pressured by geopolitical and trade tensions after President Trump confirmed the imposition of tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, previously delayed by a month. There were also reports that the US was tightening restrictions on China’s chip industry. The technology, communication services, and utilities sectors fared the worst, while real estate, materials, and consumer staples were the gainers.

Today, investors are awaiting Nvidia’s earnings report, which could be a new catalyst for the market. Nvidia, like other AI-related stocks, has recently come under pressure due to concerns over China’s DeepSeek project, raising doubts about the sustainability of the AI rally. Market participants are also awaiting the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth at the end of the week, as well as the upcoming PCE Price Index report, which will provide key insights into the outlook for the economy and monetary policy.

BTC/USD fell below $88,000, its lowest in 3 months, as concerns over a slowing US economy, rising inflation, and Trump’s aggressive trade policies eroded investor confidence. Bitcoin has fallen about 20% since Trump’s inauguration in January as initial optimism over his digital-asset-friendly stance fades. Other major digital assets, including ETH and SOL, have also declined, and bitcoin ETFs saw record outflows of nearly $1 billion in February. Industry issues such as the $1.5 billion hack of Bybit also dampened sentiment.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.49%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.80%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.11%. Eurozone wages were 4.12% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, slowing from the 31-year high of 5.43% recorded in the previous quarter. The data brought some relief to European Central Bank policymakers as they continue their efforts to contain inflation while supporting sluggish economic growth. The ECB recently announced its plans to continue easing monetary policy, with money markets anticipating at least two interest rate cuts before the end of December.

The formation of a new government coalition in Germany also remains in the spotlight. Conservative leader Friedrich Merz intends to strike an agreement with the SPD “in the near future,” while talks on increased defense spending continue. On the corporate front, shares of Siemens Energy and Infineon Technologies are down 7.3% and 2.6% respectively amid concerns over US restrictions on the Chinese technology sector and ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report.

WTI crude oil prices were trading near $69 a barrel on Wednesday, near their lowest level since last December, as US economic concerns and broader market uncertainty put pressure on the outlook for energy demand. President Trump’s foreign policy also put pressure on oil, with the prospect of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine raising expectations of the lifting of Russian sanctions, which would pave the way for more Russian oil exports.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.32%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.68%. Hong Kong stocks rose by 2.3% on Wednesday, reversing a weak session the previous day amid strong gains across sectors. The mood was upbeat as the city’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan is due to unveil his plan to reduce Hong Kong’s deficit while mitigating the negative effects of a slowing Chinese economy and rising trade tensions with the US.

The Australian dollar fell below $0.633 on Wednesday, nearing two-week lows, as weaker-than-expected economic data fueled expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index was unchanged at 2.5% in January, defeating expectations of a slight rise to 2.6%. On the external front, the Aussie faced additional pressure from US President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals, which could disrupt global trade and negatively impact export-dependent economies such as Australia.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,983.25 −29.88 (−0.50%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,461.21 +33.19 (+0.08%)

DAX (DE40) 22,425.93 +138.37 (+0.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,658.98 −0.39 (−0.0045%)

USD Index 106.67 +0.06 (+0.06%)

News feed for: 2025.02.26

Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan BOJ Core CPI (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
G20 Meetings (Day 1).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Feb

Nvidia earnings preview: Make-or-break moment…

By ForexTime

Nvidia world’s 2nd largest company with $3.1 trillion market cap

Earnings due after US markets close Wednesday, 26th Feb

DeepSeek threat, tariffs and supply outlook in focus

Shares forecast to move almost 10% ↑ or ↓ post earnings

Technical levels: $115, $138 & $150

Nvidia’s earnings will be a defining moment for itself and the entire tech space.

Making it one of the biggest events for Q1.

Given the lofty expectations, the AI giant must deliver exceptional results to keep bulls alive.

But this could be complicated by mounting competition and supply constraints.

Here is what you need to know:

The lowdown…

Nvidia shares took a beating in late January, plunging 17% after Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek rocked the tech space. Although shares later rebounded, prices are still down almost 6% year-to-date.

When will earnings be released?

Nvidia will report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after US markets close on Wednesday.

What are markets expecting

Revenue: $38.2 billion – reflecting a staggering 73% YoY increase.

Data Center revenue: $34.1 billion

Gross profit margins: 73.5%

Net profits: $21.0 billion

Earnings per share (EPS): $0.84 – reflecting a massive 64% YoY increase.

Most importantly, all eyes will be on Nvidia’s guidance for future earnings which could boost or reduce confidence over its business outlook.

Note: Nvidia projected Q4 revenues of $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2% during its last report.

Why is Nvidia’s earnings so important?

Nvidia plays a critical role in AI development across the world.

The likes of Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet use Nvidia’s GPUs for their AI systems while Tesla uses them in its vehicles. OpenAI relies on Nvidia chips to train ChatGPT and Tencent/Alibaba use them in their chatbots.

So, the company’s earnings could serve as a major gauge for the AI trade while also re-confirming whether its $3.1 trillion valuation is justified.

Potential challenges

DeepSeek’s cheaper AI models hitting demand for Nvidia’s pricier chips.

Trump’s tariffs and trade uncertainty reducing chip sales, especially in China.

Supply challenges and production delays for Blackwell GPUs limiting growth.

How will Nvidia react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting a near 10% move, either up or down, for Nvidia stocks post earnings.

Note: With a $3.1 billion valuation, a nearly 10% move in the price of Nvidia is $310 billion. This is larger than the entire value of over 95% of companies in the S&P500.

Possible scenarios

If Nvidia delivers exceptional results and raises its guidance – prices could rally.

If Nvidia misses expectations and flags potential challenges down the road – prices may tumble.

What does this mean for FXTM’s NAS100 index.

FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index.

And Nvidia makes up under 10% of the index weighting, meaning that the upcoming earnings could result in heightened volatility.

The index is down almost 2% this month, with year-to-date gains flat. Prices are under pressure on the daily charts with bears eyeing support at 20500.

Key levels of interest can be found at 22256, 21400 and 20500.

nasdaq1000

Technical forces

Nvidia shares are under pressure on the daily charts.

This continues to be reflected in price action with the candlesticks below the 21, 50 and 100-day SMA.

Weakness below the 200-day SMA could signal a decline toward the $115.00 support and $100.

A solid move above the 50 and 100-day SMA could signal a move back toward $138, $150, and fresh all-time high beyond $152.69.

Nvidia chart 1

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

26 Feb

EUR/USD appreciates as optimism builds around Germany’s fiscal plans

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD climbed to 1.0504 on Wednesday, nearing its monthly high of 1.0528. The pair gained momentum following positive news from Germany, fuelling market optimism.

Key factors driving EUR/USD

Reports have emerged suggesting that Germany is considering the creation of a 200-billion-euro emergency fund, boosting expectations for increased local fiscal spending.

Additionally, Friedrich Merz, a leading candidate for the next German Chancellor, has proposed reforming the country’s debt brake to allow for more flexible financing of key expenditures. This could include tax cuts, lower energy prices, and a significant increase in defence spending – all of which could stimulate the German economy and support the euro.

Meanwhile, market participants are closely analysing recent comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) comments ahead of next week’s policy meeting. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time. However, some policymakers, including Isabel Schnabel, suggest that the central bank may soon need to pause or halt rate cuts altogether. The euro could find additional support if the ECB signals a more cautious stance on further easing,

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD completed a growth wave to 1.0524 and is now developing a downward wave towards 1.0450. A breakout below this level would open the potential for a further decline towards 1.0380. After reaching this target, a corrective rebound towards 1.0450 is likely. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero but pointing sharply downward.

On the H1 chart, the market declined to 1.0453, followed by a correction to 1.0524. The likelihood of the downward wave continuing towards 1.0450 remains high. If this level is breached, the correction could extend towards 1.0380, with the broader trend potentially targeting 1.0373. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line above 50 and pointing decisively downward.

Conclusion

EUR/USD benefits from renewed optimism surrounding Germany’s potential fiscal expansion, but downside risks persist due to the uncertainty surrounding ECB policy. While technical indicators suggest an ongoing downward wave, the pair’s movement will depend on key support levels around 1.0450 and 1.0380. The upcoming ECB meeting remains a critical event that could shape the euro’s near-term direction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Feb

Bitcoin has fallen below $92K. The US imposed additional sanctions on oil trade from Iran

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.08%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.50%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) decreased 1.21%. Among individual stocks, Palantir, a key player in defense AI, fell sharply by 10.5% and is now down nearly 30% from its peak. Nvidia also fell by 3.1% as it prepares to release its earnings report on Wednesday, while Microsoft lost 1% amid concerns about slowing data center spending growth. On the other hand, Apple rose by 0.6% as it announced plans to invest $500 billion in the US over the next four years and plans to hire 20,000 new employees.

Bitcoin prices fell below $92,000, hitting their lowest level since last November. The collapse in risk assets began last week amid growing concerns about the outlook for the US economy, amplified by President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threats and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy bought another 20,365 bitcoins worth nearly $2 billion, bringing the total number of bitcoins to 499,096 or roughly $33.1 billion.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.62%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.78%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.01%. In Germany, Friedrich Merz’s conservatives won the election. Investors are closely watching for signs of Germany’s fiscal strategy, while economists remain divided on the government’s ability to enact significant economic reforms.

Ukraine and the United States are in the final stages of negotiating a mineral deal considered key to ending Russia’s three-year war in Ukraine. Kyiv and Washington are interested in US access to Ukraine’s underground wealth, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said any deal must include specific security guarantees. Zelenskyy refused to sign an initial draft of the agreement earlier this month, sparking displeasure at the White House.

WTI crude prices climbed above $71 a barrel on Tuesday, posting a second straight day of gains after the US imposed additional sanctions on oil trade from Iran, adding to fears of dwindling global supplies. On Monday, the US imposed sanctions on brokers, tanker operators, and shipping companies involved in the sale and transportation of Iranian oil, affecting 22 individuals and 13 vessels based in China, the UAE, India, and Hong Kong. This is the second round of sanctions as President Donald Trump seeks to zero out Iran’s crude oil exports to prevent the country from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.37%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.58% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was up 0.14%. Hong Kong stocks fell 1.4% in Tuesday morning trading, marking a second session of sharp declines amid losses in the broad sector, especially consumer discretionary and technology. Traders retreated from risky assets after the US stepped up restrictions on Chinese investment and continued to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Caution also intensified ahead of China’s official PMI data for February to be released over the weekend, with the reading expected to be lower due to the impact of the New Year’s Eve holiday break.

The offshore yuan remained weak around 7.26 per dollar as investors remained cautious amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China. President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to tighten controls on chip exports to China following a recent executive order to restrict Chinese investment in technology and other strategic US industries.

The Australian dollar traded near US$0.635 on Tuesday, remaining under pressure after falling for two consecutive sessions, driven by US President Donald Trump’s recent comments on tariffs that raised fears of a possible global trade war. On Monday, Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico “will be imposed” as soon as the one-month delay period ends next week. Domestically, investors are also awaiting Australia’s monthly inflation report on Wednesday, which is expected to provide crucial insight into the future direction of monetary policy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,983.25 −29.88 (−0.50%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,461.21 +33.19 (+0.08%)

DAX (DE40) 22,425.93 +138.37 (+0.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,658.98 −0.39 (−0.0045%)

USD Index 106.67 +0.06 (+0.06%)

News feed for: 2025.02.25

German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Feb

Bitcoin tumbles below $90k on risk-off mood

By ForexTime

- Bitcoin ↓ 7% on Tuesday, pulling YTD losses to 5%
- Bears exploit Trump tariff fears & industry-related drama
- Over past year US PCE triggered moves of ↑ 4.1% & ↓ 2.5%
- Technical levels: $94,000, $87,000 and 200-day SMA
Bitcoin collapsed over 7% on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level since mid-November as a messy cocktail of developments soured investor appetite.
The “OG” crypto cut through the $90,000 weekly support level, dragging year-to-date losses to 5% amid Trump’s tariff fears and a series of industry-specific drama.
Last Friday, cryptocurrency exchange Bybit was hacked – losing $1.5 billion in what could be the biggest crypt theft in history. With investors jittery about the safety of digital-asset platforms, Bitcoin was left vulnerable to heavy losses.
Also weighing on sentiment was the memecoin scandal in mid-February involving Argentina’s President’s $LIBRA token.
All this uncertainty was reflected in the massive $516 million outflows from Bitcoin ETFs on Monday.
More losses could be on the cards for Bitcoin if the market mood fails to improve.
Source: Coinglass
On the macro front, incoming US data and Fed speeches may trigger fresh volatility for Bitcoin but to its sensitivity to interest rates.
Note: Traders are currently pricing in a 33% probability of a 25bp rate cut by May with this jumping to 83% by June.
- Thursday 27th February: US Q4 GDP (second estimate), initial weekly jobless claims, speeches by Fed officials.
- Friday 28th February: US January PCE, speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Over the past year, the US PCE report has triggered upside moves of as much as 4.1% or declines of 2.5% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Technical outlook
Prices are under pressure on the daily charts, trading below the 21, 50 and 100-day SMA.
- Should $87,000 prove to be reliable support, this may trigger a rebound back toward $94,000.
- A breakdown below $87,000 may open a path toward the 200-day SMA at $81,800.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

24 Feb

Germany has a new chancellor. The focus of traders’ attention today is on the negotiations on Ukraine

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 1.69% (for the week -2.89%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.71% (down -1.67% for the week). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 2.06% (week-to-date -1.93%). The US stocks fell on Friday as economic data heightened concerns about a slowing US economy and persistent inflation, prompting investors to seek safer assets. Consumer sentiment also suffered, with the University of Michigan Index falling to 64.7, reflecting growing concerns about inflation, which consumers expect to rise to 4.3% next year. Meanwhile, S&P Global’s US manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in February 2025 from 51.2 in January, beating market expectations of 51.5, preliminary estimates showed. This is the highest reading since June 2024, indicating the sector’s continued recovery.

Mexico’s GDP contracted by 0.6% in Q4, the sharpest contraction since Q3 2021, underscoring the weakness in the economy. Nevertheless, strong remittances, fiscal discipline and Mexico’s attractiveness for asset transactions are supporting the peso, while dollar softness is generally adding to its resilience.

In Canada, a 0.4% decline in January retail sales, the first in seven months, points to a slowdown in consumer spending after a boom in December, raising concerns about domestic market dynamics. In addition, lingering uncertainty over US tariff threats targeting a significant portion of Canadian exports has dampened the outlook for loonie demand. Conversely, strong inflationary pressures have highlighted the Bank of Canada’s challenge in balancing growth and price controls.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.12% (week-to-date -1.34%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.39% (week-to-date -0.33%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.12% (week-to-date +0.06%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.04% (week-to-date -0.84%). European equities closed slightly higher, retreating from record highs reached earlier in the week. Markets were assessing the latest PMI data and corporate reports, and positioned ahead of the German elections. Friedrich Merz announces his victory in the German elections, while Scholz concedes defeat. Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s conservative opposition, is expected to form a coalition government aimed at fiscal reforms. Also, Friedrich Merz actively supported Ukraine and condemned the Russian invasion during the election campaign. On February 24 (the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), many heads and officials of European countries will come to Kyiv to discuss the situation on the further settlement of the bloody conflict. In turn, the British prime minister will travel to the United States on Monday to present his plan for a settlement of the conflict.

Iraq’s oil ministry announced that it has completed all necessary procedures to resume oil exports through the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline, signaling a possible resolution to the nearly two-year dispute that has disrupted regional crude flows. Traders also continue to keep an eye on talks to end the war in Ukraine, as a peace deal could lead to an easing of sanctions on Russian oil, potentially boosting global supply. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the Gaza ceasefire is facing problems, with Hamas accusing Israel of jeopardizing a five-week truce by delaying the release of Palestinian prisoners. The first phase of the truce ends in early March, and details of a planned follow-up phase have yet to be agreed.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.81%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 2.83%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 3.18%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 2.82%.

Singapore core consumer prices in January 2025 came in at 0.8% y/y on an annualized basis, down sharply from a revised 1.7% y/y in the previous month and below market estimates of 1.5% y/y. This is the lowest core inflation rate since June 2021, mainly due to lower inflation in almost all major categories.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.577 on Monday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses and trading at a more than two-month high after domestic data showed strong retail sales. New Zealand’s Q4 2024 retail sales rose by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, the biggest increase in three years, following a revised figure for the previous period. This supported expectations of a slower pace of rate cuts, consistent with the RBNZ’s statement last week that future cuts are likely to be smaller and that the easing cycle is nearing completion.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,013.13 −104.39 (−1.71%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,428.02 −748.63 (−1.69%)

DAX (DE40) 22,287.56 −27.09 (−0.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,659.37 −3.60 (−0.04%)

USD Index 106.64 +0.27 (+0.25%)

News feed for: 2025.02.24

Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Feb

Speculators push US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen bullish bets higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Euro, Australian & Canadian Dollars

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while three markets had lower speculator contracts and one market saw no change.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (13,005 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (8,862 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (6,191 contracts), the Japanese Yen (5,954 contracts), the British Pound (2,589 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,472 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (386 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-2,827 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,177 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-140 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

In an extremely rare occurrence this week (that likely will be updated later), Bitcoin (0 contracts) saw no change in its futures contracts for the speculator positioning.

Large Currency Speculators push US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen bullish bets higher

Highlighting the COT data for the week was a rebound in some of the most bearish currency speculator positions (EUR, CAD & AUD) while the Japanese yen and the US Dollar Index speculators pushed their bets higher.

Here is a Quick Currency Roundup:

The US Dollar Index positioning rose once again this week and gained for the third week in a row. The USD Index bets has now risen in nine out of the past ten weeks and the current bullish position has grown to the highest level since September. Despite the positioning gains, the US Dollar Index futures price (DX) has actually dipped for the past three straight weeks. The DX closed the week at the 106.52 level and after the recent bullish momentum hit a roadblock around the 109.00-110.00 resistance level numerous times over the past month. Currently, the DX sits at support that used to be resistance in the recent past at 106.50.

The Euro speculator bets jumped this week by over +13,000 contracts after falling in three out of the past four weeks. The current speculator level sits at -51,420 contracts which is in extreme bearish territory compared to the past three years of positioning. The Euro exchange rate versus the USD has been trading at the lowest levels since 2022 when the EURUSD exchange went below parity for the first time in decades. The EURUSD recently bounced off support levels at 1.0250 but remains in a downtrend that has seen the Euro fall approximately 9 percent vs the USD since September.

The Japanese yen speculator positioning gained once again this week for the fifth straight week. The current speculator level leads all the currencies in net bullish positions at +60,569 contracts and has jumped by +89,980 contracts in just the past five weeks (going from -14,673 contracts five weeks ago to this week over +60k contracts). The turnaround in sentiment has also been felt in the yen exchange rate versus the US Dollar which has risen in five out of the past six weeks. The USDJPY currency pair closed below 150.00 this week for the first time since October which is a gain for the yen by over 6 percent since the beginning of the year.

The Australian dollar speculators boosted their bets by over +8,000 contracts this week to bring the total spec standing to -56,723 contracts. The AUD speculator standing has had a sharply bearish end to 2024 and start to this year as the spec level has fallen by -88,499 contracts since the beginning of December. The AUD positions have declined in nine out of the past twelve weeks but have rebounded in each of the past two weeks. The Australian currency recently dipped to the 0.6098 exchange level vs the USD which marked the lowest exchange rate since 2020. The AUDUSD currency pair closed the week at the 0.6355 exchange rate which is off the recent lows but remains in a downtrend currently.

The Canadian dollar speculative position improved again this week and rose for a second straight week. The CAD positioning has been extremely bearish and above the -100,000 contract level for nineteen straight weeks and overall, the CAD position has been in bearish territory for eighty-one consecutive weeks. Despite this extreme bearishness, the speculator positions have actually been positive in seven out of the past nine weeks. The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the US Dollar dipped modestly this week but had gained in the previous two weeks. The CAD futures price had recently fallen to the lowest level in over 20 years under the 0.6800 threshold but managed to bounce off long-term support around 0.6820-0.6875. This level has proved to be a strong turnaround level in both 2016 and 2020 and time will only tell if this turns out to be a similar case.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (98 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (3 percent) and the EuroFX (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (23 percent) and the Swiss Franc (23 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (41.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (38.4 percent)
EuroFX (9.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (34.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (95.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (36.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (29.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (36.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (36.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.1 percent)
Bitcoin (43.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.3 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the Australian Dollar (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-7 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (16.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (17.5 percent)
EuroFX (4.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (32.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (25.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-1.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-2.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (32.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (25.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-34.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-1.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.5	18.9	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	63.3	7.5
– Net Position:	16,768	-17,057	289
– Gross Longs:	26,729	7,275	3,161
– Gross Shorts:	9,961	24,332	2,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	60.5	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-13.6	-14.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -51,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	56.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	52.5	7.9
– Net Position:	-51,420	26,195	25,225
– Gross Longs:	170,320	361,239	75,697
– Gross Shorts:	221,740	335,044	50,472
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.2	90.1	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.4	13.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	49.2	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	43.9	16.9
– Net Position:	-579	10,797	-10,218
– Gross Longs:	73,564	100,001	24,129
– Gross Shorts:	74,143	89,204	34,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	65.7	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	6.6	-3.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 60,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	29.9	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	54.8	12.2
– Net Position:	60,569	-70,193	9,624
– Gross Longs:	147,566	84,001	43,985
– Gross Shorts:	86,997	154,194	34,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	2.7	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.3	-33.3	23.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	83.7	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.4	31.1	22.4
– Net Position:	-38,359	51,505	-13,146
– Gross Longs:	7,047	81,921	8,807
– Gross Shorts:	45,406	30,416	21,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	83.4	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	-4.8	14.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -144,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	82.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.3	35.6	10.3
– Net Position:	-144,643	151,212	-6,569
– Gross Longs:	21,276	266,233	26,645
– Gross Shorts:	165,919	115,021	33,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	78.4	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-17.0	18.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	58.0	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.6	26.2	15.5
– Net Position:	-56,723	60,353	-3,630
– Gross Longs:	46,918	110,010	25,863
– Gross Shorts:	103,641	49,657	29,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.0	65.9	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-13.5	15.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	80.4	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.0	20.2	6.0
– Net Position:	-52,163	53,832	-1,669
– Gross Longs:	13,048	71,887	3,718
– Gross Shorts:	65,211	18,055	5,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	96.3	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.7	10.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	52.7	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	61.2	3.7
– Net Position:	14,673	-12,824	-1,849
– Gross Longs:	63,852	78,851	3,749
– Gross Shorts:	49,179	91,675	5,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	67.6	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-1.2	-0.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.5	31.0	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	33.6	2.5
– Net Position:	940	-2,216	1,276
– Gross Longs:	50,763	26,471	3,444
– Gross Shorts:	49,823	28,687	2,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	47.2	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-33.8	12.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.9	5.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.0	4.5	3.8
– Net Position:	-367	141	226
– Gross Longs:	27,367	1,680	1,519
– Gross Shorts:	27,734	1,539	1,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	66.9	27.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.0	38.6	0.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper, Silver & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper, Silver & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,475 contracts) with Silver (4,744 contracts), Steel (4,618 contracts) and Palladium (943 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The two markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-15,830 contracts) and with Platinum (-2,193 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (90 percent) and Silver (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (82 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (61 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is over the 50-percent or the midpoint level for the past 3-years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (82.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (88.3 percent)
Silver (85.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.0 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (71.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (76.8 percent)
Palladium (60.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (53.8 percent)
Steel (89.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.7 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (26 percent) and Steel (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

There were no markets this week with negative trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.1 percent)
Silver (17.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.9 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (13.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (47.5 percent)
Palladium (25.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.4 percent)
Steel (24.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 268,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 284,504 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.0	13.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	70.5	4.5
– Net Position:	268,674	-296,071	27,397
– Gross Longs:	334,043	72,393	50,882
– Gross Shorts:	65,369	368,464	23,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	15.7	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-6.3	13.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.9	20.7	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	63.0	8.0
– Net Position:	54,454	-71,960	17,506
– Gross Longs:	84,814	35,237	31,187
– Gross Shorts:	30,360	107,197	13,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	14.8	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-17.5	11.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.0	5.7
– Net Position:	20,896	-24,842	3,946
– Gross Longs:	104,032	75,169	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	83,136	100,011	13,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	49.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.3	-7.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	16.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	47.4	5.9
– Net Position:	23,537	-27,658	4,121
– Gross Longs:	58,829	14,208	9,361
– Gross Shorts:	35,292	41,866	5,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.6	30.9	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-12.4	-2.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	39.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.3	16.1	6.7
– Net Position:	-5,631	4,658	973
– Gross Longs:	7,021	7,922	2,330
– Gross Shorts:	12,652	3,264	1,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	37.2	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-24.5	-1.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	58.7	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	0.5
– Net Position:	2,855	-3,034	179
– Gross Longs:	9,630	18,379	348
– Gross Shorts:	6,775	21,413	169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	10.5	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.8	-25.7	19.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

22 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (124,202 contracts) with the Fed Funds (73,169 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (41,507 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (10,481 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (9,093 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (7,490 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (3,780 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,301 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-5,859 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (100 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (81 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (14.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (13.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (41.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (37.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (65.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (67.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (100.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (98.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (82.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (81.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (79.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.4 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) and are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-16 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) and 10-Year Bonds (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-26.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-1.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-2.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-3.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (14.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (26.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (27.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (19.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (29.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-18.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -144,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 73,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -217,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	66.6	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	60.2	1.7
– Net Position:	-144,305	115,677	28,628
– Gross Longs:	216,604	1,194,529	58,796
– Gross Shorts:	360,909	1,078,852	30,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	63.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-8.7	33.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -741,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -751,909 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	62.9	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	55.9	0.3
– Net Position:	-741,428	731,384	10,044
– Gross Longs:	1,379,494	6,555,793	38,925
– Gross Shorts:	2,120,922	5,824,409	28,881
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	77.4	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	15.7	-1.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 51,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,587 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	59.4	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	60.7	2.4
– Net Position:	51,077	-18,806	-32,271
– Gross Longs:	352,869	866,616	3,103
– Gross Shorts:	301,792	885,422	35,374
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.1	26.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-11.1	-84.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,289,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,298,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	76.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	48.2	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,289,519	1,180,540	108,979
– Gross Longs:	509,383	3,187,914	244,396
– Gross Shorts:	1,798,902	2,007,374	135,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	87.6	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	10.4	-10.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,737,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 124,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,861,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	79.2	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	55.8	4.7
– Net Position:	-1,737,533	1,633,016	104,517
– Gross Longs:	412,913	5,533,519	433,254
– Gross Shorts:	2,150,446	3,900,503	328,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.1	85.5	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-3.4	-2.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -709,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 41,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -751,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	70.1	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	57.3	7.4
– Net Position:	-709,527	668,096	41,431
– Gross Longs:	727,934	3,672,440	426,916
– Gross Shorts:	1,437,461	3,004,344	385,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.1	60.6	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	8.2	-7.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -91,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	72.8	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	66.4	11.9
– Net Position:	-91,433	150,480	-59,047
– Gross Longs:	346,091	1,717,063	222,552
– Gross Shorts:	437,524	1,566,583	281,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	21.6	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-5.4	-22.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	63.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	69.4	6.9
– Net Position:	47,781	-118,538	70,757
– Gross Longs:	485,270	1,311,974	211,937
– Gross Shorts:	437,489	1,430,512	141,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.3	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-23.6	9.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -246,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	68.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-239,941	214,843	25,098
– Gross Longs:	152,029	1,450,800	179,900
– Gross Shorts:	391,970	1,235,957	154,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	11.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-14.0	43.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

22 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (43,955 contracts) with Wheat (11,414 contracts), Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (5,819 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Soybeans (-12,423 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Corn & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Corn (94 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (88 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (4 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (93.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (88.0 percent)
Sugar (4.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.1 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (46.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (49.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Corn (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (16 percent), Soybeans (11 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (17.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-22.9 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (18.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 468,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 43,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 424,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	39.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	57.2	10.2
– Net Position:	468,724	-377,274	-91,450
– Gross Longs:	627,494	807,094	120,055
– Gross Shorts:	158,770	1,184,368	211,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.6	12.4	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-16.2	-31.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,819 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	54.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	53.3	6.7
– Net Position:	-20,707	12,056	8,651
– Gross Longs:	205,612	538,441	74,611
– Gross Shorts:	226,319	526,385	65,960
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.0	93.8	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.6	17.8	6.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	37.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	71.9	3.5
– Net Position:	63,697	-67,169	3,472
– Gross Longs:	78,310	71,130	10,259
– Gross Shorts:	14,613	138,299	6,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	12.9	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.8	15.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	55.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	51.2	8.4
– Net Position:	-5,642	37,594	-31,952
– Gross Longs:	166,913	499,909	43,943
– Gross Shorts:	172,555	462,315	75,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	57.7	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-9.4	-17.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	55.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	67.0	4.5
– Net Position:	55,168	-65,153	9,985
– Gross Longs:	124,887	312,914	35,495
– Gross Shorts:	69,719	378,067	25,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	30.7	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-28.6	32.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	50.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	51.0	5.7
– Net Position:	-13,967	-4,408	18,375
– Gross Longs:	102,087	294,109	51,912
– Gross Shorts:	116,054	298,517	33,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.0	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.5	-9.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	29.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	53.5	14.1
– Net Position:	113,424	-88,275	-25,149
– Gross Longs:	179,879	108,595	26,597
– Gross Shorts:	66,455	196,870	51,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	14.8	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-9.5	-5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	32.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	53.4	9.4
– Net Position:	73,220	-67,641	-5,579
– Gross Longs:	137,087	101,137	24,044
– Gross Shorts:	63,867	168,778	29,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	13.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.8	29.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	50.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	36.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-42,565	39,238	3,327
– Gross Longs:	68,832	143,745	16,498
– Gross Shorts:	111,397	104,507	13,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	93.8	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	2.9	20.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	40.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	67.3	4.1
– Net Position:	26,819	-33,051	6,232
– Gross Longs:	40,947	48,369	11,236
– Gross Shorts:	14,128	81,420	5,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	60.1	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	9.6	3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	34.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	21.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-55,941	54,281	1,660
– Gross Longs:	132,148	152,709	35,998
– Gross Shorts:	188,089	98,428	34,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	64.4	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-16.3	-1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

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Archive for Financial News – Page 81

News feed for: 2025.02.26

Nvidia’s earnings will be a defining moment for itself and the entire tech space.

The lowdown…

When will earnings be released?

What are markets expecting

Why is Nvidia’s earnings so important?

The likes of Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet use Nvidia’s GPUs for their AI systems while Tesla uses them in its vehicles. OpenAI relies on Nvidia chips to train ChatGPT and Tencent/Alibaba use them in their chatbots.

Potential challenges

How will Nvidia react to earnings?

Possible scenarios

What does this mean for FXTM’s NAS100 index.

And Nvidia makes up under 10% of the index weighting, meaning that the upcoming earnings could result in heightened volatility.

Technical forces

News feed for: 2025.02.25

Bitcoin collapsed over 7% on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level since mid-November as a messy cocktail of developments soured investor appetite.

All this uncertainty was reflected in the massive $516 million outflows from Bitcoin ETFs on Monday.

Note: Traders are currently pricing in a 33% probability of a 25bp rate cut by May with this jumping to 83% by June.

Over the past year, the US PCE report has triggered upside moves of as much as 4.1% or declines of 2.5% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Technical outlook

News feed for: 2025.02.24

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Euro, Australian & Canadian Dollars

Large Currency Speculators push US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen bullish bets higher

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper, Silver & Steel

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures: