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COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (34,270 contracts) with Soybean Meal (15,232 contracts), Wheat (14,836 contracts), Lean Hogs (6,359 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,303 contracts), Coffee (2,614 contracts) and Live Cattle (136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-4,445 contracts), Cocoa (-4,033 contracts), Cotton (-2,501 contracts) and with Soybeans (-1,557 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee leads price gains on the week

The soft commodities price performance this week was led for a second straight week by Coffee, which rose by over 6% in the last 5 days. Lean Hogs was next with a gain by over 5.5%. Soybean Meal rose by 2.27%, followed by Live Cattle, which rose by approximately 2%. Corn was up by 1.56%, and Wheat was also higher by 1.42%.

Soybeans was virtually unchanged with a -0.04%, edging lower this week. Sugar fell by -0.73%. Cotton was down by -1.28%, followed by Cocoa, which saw a -2.70% decline. And finally, Soybean Oil was the lowest on the week with a decrease by -3.03%.

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (85 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (73 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (15 percent) and Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (26.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.9 percent)
Sugar (0.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.7 percent)
Soybeans (55.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (72.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (69.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.7 percent)
Live Cattle (82.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (79.9 percent)
Cotton (14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.4 percent)
Cocoa (18.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.2 percent)
Wheat (31.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.8 percent)

Soybean Meal & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (18 percent) and Corn (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (2 percent) and Soybeans (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-8 percent), Sugar (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.8 percent)
Coffee (0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.3 percent)
Soybeans (0.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (1.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.0 percent)
Cotton (-7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.3 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.6 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -70,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	46.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	40.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-70,940	93,769	-22,829
– Gross Longs:	337,007	675,979	135,440
– Gross Shorts:	407,947	582,210	158,269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.6	71.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.6	5.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -74,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	45.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-74,738	75,802	-1,064
– Gross Longs:	190,535	491,865	71,165
– Gross Shorts:	265,273	416,063	72,229
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	96.8	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	2.4	16.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	38.2	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	59.0	3.8
– Net Position:	31,274	-33,581	2,307
– Gross Longs:	55,237	61,582	8,434
– Gross Shorts:	23,963	95,163	6,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	44.9	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-1.5	24.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	56.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	56.2	7.8
– Net Position:	18,189	-643	-17,546
– Gross Longs:	153,775	483,561	49,348
– Gross Shorts:	135,586	484,204	66,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	43.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-0.2	-6.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	43.5	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	54.0	4.3
– Net Position:	55,510	-63,636	8,126
– Gross Longs:	142,575	262,931	34,031
– Gross Shorts:	87,065	326,567	25,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	29.2	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	6.6	-21.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	52.4	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	49.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-32,896	18,769	14,127
– Gross Longs:	108,956	312,972	48,413
– Gross Shorts:	141,852	294,203	34,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	82.5	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-14.2	-54.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 106,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	28.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.6	12.8
– Net Position:	106,277	-85,211	-21,066
– Gross Longs:	189,758	112,784	28,909
– Gross Shorts:	83,481	197,995	49,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	18.5	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-4.1	5.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	27.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	48.4	7.3
– Net Position:	76,068	-71,664	-4,404
– Gross Longs:	152,263	93,942	20,718
– Gross Shorts:	76,195	165,606	25,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	14.2	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.3	8.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	48.0	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	32.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-37,606	37,534	72
– Gross Longs:	67,460	116,539	12,245
– Gross Shorts:	105,066	79,005	12,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	86.2	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	7.3	-1.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	45.8	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	58.9	8.1
– Net Position:	7,996	-11,793	3,797
– Gross Longs:	24,532	41,060	11,033
– Gross Shorts:	16,536	52,853	7,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	81.9	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	4.3	-4.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	20.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-78,782	78,683	99
– Gross Longs:	127,585	171,579	33,536
– Gross Shorts:	206,367	92,896	33,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	69.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	6.9	33.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

29 Aug

August was the best month for gold since April

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold (XAUUSD) is holding steady near USD 3,410 per ounce on Friday, just shy of its monthly high, and is set to close its second straight week with gains. The metal is supported by a weaker dollar and consistent safe-haven demand as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path lingers.

Dollar weakness and Fed uncertainty support gold

Investors are moving into gold amid concerns that political pressure on the Fed could accelerate the pace of rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September. Further support came from Fed Board member Christopher Waller, who said he expects rates to begin falling as early as next month, aligning with other policymakers’ dovish stance.

Attention now turns to the upcoming US household spending report, which is forecast to show stronger growth. This follows revised Q2 GDP data, which revealed slightly higher-than-expected economic expansion. However, concerns about rising inflation are also mounting, keeping gold attractive as a hedge.

Overall, August is shaping up to be gold’s strongest month since April, with prices consolidating at the upper end of the range, underpinned by a mix of dollar weakness and growing economic uncertainty.

Technical analysis of XAUUSD

On the H4 timeframe, gold completed a growth wave to 3,423, marking a local target. A decline towards 3,371 is now in play, with the market continuing to develop a wide consolidation range around this level. A downward breakout would open the way to 3,290, while an upward breakout could extend the range to 3,431 before the downtrend resumes towards 3,290. The MACD indicator supports this view: its signal line is above zero at the highs but has left the histogram zone, a sign of potential weakness and the beginning of a move towards new lows.

On the H1 chart, XAUUSD formed a consolidation range around 3,368 and broke upwards, completing the third growth wave at 3,420. The market has now started a downward correction towards 3,368. After reaching this level, a compact consolidation range is expected. A downward breakout would confirm continuation of the decline to 3,290, while an upward breakout could produce another growth structure towards at least 3,425. The Stochastic oscillator confirms the bearish correction, with its signal line below 50 and heading strictly towards 20.

Summary

Gold is consolidating near highs after its best monthly performance since April. While short-term corrections towards 3,371 and 3,290 remain likely, broader support from a weak dollar, Fed policy uncertainty, and inflation concerns continues to underpin the bullish outlook. Resistance levels are at 3,423–3,431, while support lies at 3,371 and 3,290.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

29 Aug

The S&P 500 Index rose to a record high above 6,500. Inflationary pressures ease in Japan

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, US stock indices continued to rise. The Dow Jones (US30) climbed by 0.16%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.32% to reach a new record high above 6,500, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished up 0.53%. Market sentiment was supported by strong economic data and sustained enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, despite mixed signals from Nvidia’s latest earnings report. The chipmaker reported a 56% surge in quarterly revenue but excluded potential China sales from its expectations, causing its stock to dip slightly even as analysts raised price targets and affirmed confidence in AI-driven growth. Other tech firms, including Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, saw gains, highlighting the sector’s momentum. In the broader economy, US Q2 GDP was revised upward to 3.3% on an annualized basis, and jobless claims came in lower than expected, which eased recession concerns.

European stocks closed mixed on Thursday as markets digested key US tech sector earnings and the global rate outlook. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.03%, while the French CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.24% and the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.34%. The UK FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.42%. The minutes from the ECB’s July meeting revealed a split among policymakers regarding the inflation outlook. Some argued that near-term risks were tilted to the downside, citing a weaker growth outlook and the impact of US tariffs. Others warned that risks could still be to the upside, particularly in the long term, given uncertainty about energy prices and currency movements. While inflation is at the target, officials noted it’s partly driven by temporary factors that could shift, underscoring the ongoing debate over whether the ECB should be cautious or vigilant in its policy.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.7% and reached $64.6 per barrel on Thursday, reversing earlier losses. The fading prospect of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine lowered expectations for additional Russian supplies to enter global markets. Hopes for an easing of export restrictions on Moscow’s crude were further diminished as traders awaited a potential signal for tighter sanctions from President Trump. At the same time, Ukraine intensified its drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, disrupting exports and adding to the uncertainty.

Asian markets were mostly up on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.73%, while China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.02%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.81%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed with a positive result of 0.22%.

Tokyo’s core consumer prices in August 2025 came in at 2.5% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of decline and meeting market expectations. Although inflation has slowed, it remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, which supports speculation about another rate hike later this year. Governor Kazuo Ueda recently noted that further wage growth is expected amid a tightening labor market, reinforcing the view that conditions for additional tightening are gradually forming. At its July meeting, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation expectations and struck a more optimistic tone on the economy.

The Australian dollar climbed to $0.654 USD on Friday, marking its fourth straight session of gains and reaching a two-week high, while the US dollar remained under pressure. The AUD also found support from stronger-than-expected domestic inflation, which eased market bets on a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Still, the Central Bank’s August meeting minutes indicated that further cash rate cuts are likely within the next year, with the pace and timing dependent on upcoming data and global risks. Investors are now looking ahead to the upcoming manufacturing PMI to get new insights into the country’s economic momentum.

In New Zealand, two-year-ahead consumer inflation expectations eased from 5.1% to 4.8%, while house price expectations held at 3.5%. Despite this, declining real interest rates and a dovish RBNZ stance are providing some support, although consumer sentiment and retail spending may remain subdued in the near term.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,501.86 +20.46 (+0.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,636.90 +71.67 (+0.16%)

DAX (DE40) 24,039.92 −6.29 (−0.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,216.82 −38.68 (−0.42%)

USD Index 97.84 −0.40 (−0.40%)

News feed for: 2025.08.29

Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Consumer Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Aug

NVDA shares fell despite a positive report. Oil prices are rising amid a reduction in inventories

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, stock indices recovered from early losses and advanced. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.32%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.24%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up by 0.17%. The S&P 500 (US500) set a new record, and the Nasdaq (US100) hit a weekly high. The strengthening of software company stocks drove the overall market higher.

On Wednesday, Nvidia reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, but data center sales revenue was slightly below expectations, as US restrictions on H20 chip sales to China had a negative impact. Following the report’s release, NVIDIA shares dropped by about 3.1% in aftermarket trading.

European stock markets mostly declined on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.44%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.44%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) dropped by 0.11%. Investors continued to monitor the heightened political uncertainty in France ahead of a confidence vote on September 8. Domestically in Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator fell to 23.6 in September 2025 from a slightly revised negative 21.7 in August, missing the expectations of a negative 22.0 and marking the weakest reading since April. The decline reflects households’ growing concerns about potential job cuts and persistent inflation. On the corporate front, Commerzbank (-2.5%), Deutsche Bank (-2.3%), and Siemens Energy (-1.6%) suffered sharp losses. Conversely, automaker stocks traded higher, led by Porsche (+2.4%), Mercedes-Benz (+1%), and BMW (+0.9%).

The Swiss Investor Sentiment Index fell by 56.2 points month-over-month to 53.8 in August 2025, signaling a return to pessimism after a brief positive reading of 2.4 in July. This is the weakest reading since November 2022, primarily due to the US imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss exports in early August. The US accounts for about 17% of Switzerland’s total exports, making it the country’s largest export market. Analysts expect Swiss export dynamics to weaken in the next six months.

WTI oil prices rose to $64.1 per barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a 2.4% fall on Tuesday, after US government data pointed to a larger-than-expected reduction in inventories. Crude oil inventories shrank by 2.39 million barrels to 418.3 million, which was more than the market anticipated, while stocks at the key Cushing hub decreased by 838,000 barrels.

Asian markets were mostly down on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.97%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 1.27%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.28%.

The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.27% on Wednesday, reversing earlier gains and marking a second day of losses amid a sell-off across all sectors. Sentiment worsened after several Chinese brokerage firms and fund managers reportedly restricted financing and purchases amid growing risks associated with the recent sharp rise in mainland stocks. Trading volume on Chinese exchanges on Tuesday exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, the second-highest record.

The Australian dollar rose above the $0.650 mark on Thursday, extending its rally for a third consecutive session, supported by easing bets on another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market prices now imply only about 34 basis points of additional easing by the end of 2025, and the probability of a September move has decreased to roughly 25%, after July’s inflation came in higher than expected.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,481.40 +15.46 (+0.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,565.23 +147.16 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 24,046.21 −106.66 (−0.44%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,255.50 −10.30 (−0.11%)

USD Index 98.21 −0.01 (−0.01%)

News feed for: 2025.08.28

Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Aug

Sterling is demonstrating stability, buoyed by shifting interest rate expectations surrounding the Bank of England (BoE)

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair advanced to 1.3509 on Thursday. The primary catalyst for traders was the latest UK Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

UK producer inflation accelerated to a two-year high, reaching 1.9% year-on-year (y/y) in June. This follows a previous report showing that consumer price inflation (CPI) rose to 3.8% y/y in July, an 18-month peak. Despite these inflationary pressures, money markets are currently pricing in only a 40% probability of a BoE rate cut by the end of the year.

Despite near-term volatility, sterling remains approximately 1.5% higher against the US dollar for August. This appreciation has been driven by diminishing expectations of an imminent BoE rate cut and a series of robust macroeconomic data releases. The hawkish sentiment was underscored by comments from Catherine Mann, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, who stated that policy must remain unchanged to anchor inflation effectively.

In summary, a hawkish repricing of BoE interest rate expectations is providing short-term momentum for the pound.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair completed a downward impulse wave to the 1.3420 level, followed by a corrective bounce to 1.3515. The market continues to develop a consolidation range around the 1.3455 level. The primary scenario for today is a resumption of the downward wave towards the 1.3360 support. A decisive break below this level would open the potential for a further decline towards the next downside targets of 1.3270 and 1.3140. This bearish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing sharply lower.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market formed a downward wave structure towards 1.3417, which was followed by a corrective wave to 1.3517. The current expectation is for the initiation of a new declining wave towards 1.3455, with the potential to extend the downward structure towards the 1.3390 level. This scenario is technically corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently below the 80 level and is trending sharply downwards towards 20, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.

Conclusion

The fundamental backdrop, characterised by persistent inflation and hawkish BoE rhetoric, offers near-term support for sterling. However, from a technical perspective, both the H4 and H1 charts suggest a high probability of a short-term bearish correction. Key levels to watch on the downside are 1.3360 and 1.3390. A break below these support levels could trigger a deeper pullback, despite the positive fundamental drivers.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Aug

Gold Surges Amid Mounting Global Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of gold reached 3,383 USD per ounce on Wednesday, trading near a two-week high. The rally is being driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets, fuelled by growing concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

US President Donald Trump has signalled a potential legal battle following the resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, whom he had accused of misconduct. Her departure has reignited debates about the central bank’s autonomy and the issue of political pressure. Cook’s exit could accelerate the timing of interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump’s public calls for a more accommodative monetary policy. Market pricing currently indicates an approximately 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September.

Trade tensions have further contributed to market unease. US authorities stated that a trade agreement with India before a key deadline is unlikely, which could result in tariffs on Indian goods doubling to 50%. Conversely, Indonesia has secured an exemption from tariffs on a range of raw materials. Simultaneously, Trump has threatened to impose severe tariffs on Chinese exports of rare earth metals, significantly escalating tensions between the two economic superpowers.

Political risks are also intensifying in Europe. The French Prime Minister continues to promote an austerity plan ahead of a crucial confidence vote, creating additional political uncertainty in the region.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair on the H4 chart completed an upward wave towards the 3,393 USD level. The focus now shifts to the potential for a decline to the 3,350 USD support level. The market appears to be consolidating within a broad range around this point. A decisive break below this range would open the potential for a further downward wave towards 3,290 USD.

This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero at recent highs but has diverged from the histogram, which suggests weakening momentum and a potential move towards new lows.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has also completed a wave structure up to 3,393 USD, with a corrective wave down to 3,350 USD underway. Upon reaching this level, we anticipate the formation of a tight consolidation range. A subsequent breakout below this range could extend the decline to 3,330 USD, with the broader trend potentially targeting 3,290 USD.

This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently below the 50 level and is pointing sharply downwards towards 20, indicating strengthening downward momentum.

Conclusion

The fundamental landscape, marked by political and trade uncertainties, is bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Technically, after a period of consolidation, the indicators suggest a heightened potential for a downward move if key support levels are breached.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

27 Aug

Political instability is escalating in France. The RBA intends to continue cutting interest rates despite rising inflation

By JustMarkets

By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.30%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.41%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed up 0.43%. Investors were balancing optimism about corporate earnings with concerns over President Trump’s unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve representative Lisa Cook. Trump’s decision to remove Cook over alleged mortgage lending violations fueled fears about the Fed’s independence, drawing close scrutiny from investors and analysts. Cook stated she plans to legally challenge her dismissal, highlighting the potential long-term risks of a politicized Central Bank. Nvidia shares jumped 1.1% ahead of their quarterly report on Wednesday, amid high expectations for the chipmaker in the face of ongoing US-China trade tensions.

According to preliminary estimates, Canadian manufacturing sales increased by 1.8% in July 2025, following a 0.3% rise in June. The growth was led by the transportation equipment and petroleum and coal product subsectors. If the data is confirmed, it will be the strongest monthly increase since October 2024, indicating a moderate turnaround in manufacturing activity after a period of sluggish performance.

European stock markets mostly declined on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down 1.70%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) dropped by 0.96%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was down 0.60%. The DAX and other European markets fell for a second consecutive day amid ongoing political turmoil in France. Prime Minister François Bayrou’s warning of a debt crisis came just before a confidence vote scheduled for September 8 in the National Assembly. Opposition parties have stated their intention to vote against the motion, raising the risk of government collapse and political instability across Europe.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.4% to $63.20 per barrel on Tuesday, retreating from a nearly three-week high in the previous session as investors weighed geopolitical risks and global demand concerns. The rally on Monday was driven by fears of further disruptions after Ukraine struck Russian energy infrastructure, raising the possibility of tougher US sanctions and deepening fuel shortages in Russia. President Trump warned of new sanctions against Moscow if peace talks stall.

Asian markets were mostly lower on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 0.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.18%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) had a negative result of 0.41%.

The Australian dollar hovered near the $0.650 mark on Wednesday, pausing its rise from the previous session as investors digested fresh data, including stronger-than-expected inflation figures. The data showed that consumer prices rose by 2.8% year-on-year in July, up from 1.9% in June and exceeding market expectations of 2.3%. Core inflation also increased, with the trimmed mean rising to 2.7% from 2.1% and inflation excluding volatile items and holiday travel climbing to 3.2% from 2.5%. Markets remain confident that the RBA will cut rates in November, despite the volatile CPI data.

In China, Cambricon Technologies has surged by 102% this month after the AI chip manufacturer reported record first-half profits, boosted by Beijing’s promotion of domestic technology amid the DeepSeek AI boom. This rally has pushed the company past Kweichow Moutai to become the most valuable stock on China’s A-share market. Economically, official data showed that China’s industrial profits fell by 1.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reflecting continued weakness in domestic demand.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,465.94 +26.62 (+0.41%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,418.07 +135.60 (+0.30%)

DAX (DE40) 24,152.87 −120.25 (−0.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,265.80 −55.60 (−0.60%)

USD Index 98.24 −0.19 (−0.20%)

News feed for: 2025.08.27

Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Aug

USD/JPY Under Pressure as Yen Pares Losses

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair declined on Tuesday, touching 147.70. The move marks a partial recovery for the yen, enabling it to recoup some of its recent losses. Selling pressure on the US Dollar intensified after US President Donald Trump announced the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud. The decision has sparked fresh concerns regarding the central bank’s independence and its ability to formulate policy without political interference.

On the domestic front, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that wage growth in Japan is expected to persist, supported by a tight labour market. He suggested that these conditions are laying the groundwork for a further interest rate hike. Although the central bank held its policy rate steady in July, it upgraded its inflation forecasts and delivered a more optimistic assessment of the economic outlook.

This week, investors are also awaiting the release of key Japanese economic data, including industrial production, retail sales, and consumer confidence.

Overall, sentiment towards the yen remains mixed, with the USD/JPY pair likely to remain range-bound in the near term.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The pair continues to trade within a consolidation range around 147.33. The current range extends between 146.55 and 148.76. A further decline towards the 146.14 support level is plausible. If reached, a new upward wave targeting 151.47 would be possible. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply lower.

H1 Chart:

The market has completed an upward wave structure to 147.92, followed by a downward leg to 147.00, effectively setting the boundaries of the current consolidation range. A breakout to the upside could see the pair extend its gains towards 148.40. Conversely, a break below support could open the way for a decline towards 146.14. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and trending lower towards 20.

Conclusion

The pair is currently caught between fundamental pressures on the dollar and a cautiously hawkish, but data-dependent Bank of Japan. The technical picture suggests a key decision point is approaching, with a breakout of the current consolidation range likely to set the direction for the next significant move.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Aug

Oil climbed to a 3-week high. The NZD fell to a 4-month low against the US dollar

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.77%, the S&P 500 (US500) was down 0.43%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.31% lower. The US stocks had a mixed day, with a clear divide between sectors as markets re-evaluated the scale of potential Fed rate cuts and the impact of tariffs on manufacturers. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell noted that a softening labor market could justify a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting if employment and price data don’t bring any surprises. However, concerns about high inflation, voiced by other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), prevented a sharper rally in the stock markets.

European stock markets declined on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.37%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.59% lower, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) dropped 0.85%, while the British FTSE 100 (UK100) was not trading. European equities closed lower, pulling back from gains made the previous week as markets continued to assess the global rate outlook and recent corporate news. The banking sector saw a sharp decline, with BBVA and BNP Paribas losing 2% and 3.5% respectively, and UniCredit down 0.4% after converting its synthetic position in Commerzbank into physical shares.

WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 1.5% on Monday to $64.70 per barrel, their highest level in nearly three weeks, as traders continued a four-day rally to weigh geopolitical risks and monetary policy signals. Prices were supported by fears of supply disruptions from Russia after new Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, including a fire at an export terminal in Ust-Luga and another at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery. Uncertainty over stalled peace talks and US President Trump’s threat to impose new sanctions on Russia and raise tariffs on Indian imports also heightened supply concerns.

Platinum prices held above the $1,350 per ounce mark on Monday after rising for three consecutive sessions, supported by dovish signals on US Fed monetary policy. The metal gained momentum after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, where he indicated that the Central Bank would likely cut interest rates at its next meeting. Markets are currently pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, up from 75% last week. Additional support came from expectations of a supply cut, as global platinum output is expected to decline slightly this year, primarily due to reduced production in South Africa and Russia amid operational issues, mine closures, aging infrastructure, and cost-cutting measures. On the demand side, platinum’s long-term outlook remains positive, driven by the growth of hydrogen fuel cells and broader green energy adoption.

Asian markets were mostly up on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.41%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 3.91%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.94%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.06% higher.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar hovered around $0.648 as investors weighed the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes. The Central Bank indicated that further interest rate cuts are likely over the coming year, with the pace of easing depending on incoming economic data. At its August 2025 meeting, the RBA Board lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, citing ongoing progress in bringing inflation closer to the mid-point of its 2-3% target range. Markets now expect the RBA to hold rates in September, with a possibility of another cut in November. Longer-term, rates are anticipated to potentially reach 3.10% or even 2.85%.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.584 on Tuesday, returning to a four-month low amid trade risks and expectations of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank. Sentiment weakened after US President Trump threatened China with high tariffs on rare-earth exports and warned of duties on countries supporting digital taxes, which increased risk aversion and put pressure on commodity-linked currencies. The RBNZ’s rate cut last week and its signal of more easing ahead, citing domestic and global growth risks, added further pressure. Markets are now pricing in an almost 50% chance of another rate cut in October and a full cut by November. However, losses were partially offset by a weaker US dollar after Trump’s dismissal of Fed official Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud raised concerns about the Central Bank’s independence.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,439.32 −27.59 (−0.43%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,282.47 −349.27 (−0.77%)

DAX (DE40) 24,273.12 −89.97 (−0.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,321.40 +12.20 (+0.13%)

USD Index 98.51 +0.80 (+0.82%)

News feed for: 2025.08.26

Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 21:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Aug

US stocks soared after Jerome Powell’s speech. Silver is close to a 14-year high

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) surged by 1.89% (+1.49% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.52% (+0.34% for the week), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 1.54% higher (down -0.56% for the week). The US stocks skyrocketed on Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole signaled a potential September rate cut, triggering the strongest cross-asset rally since April. Speaking at the annual Fed symposium, Powell noted that a shift in the balance of risks to the economy “could call for an adjustment to our policy,” while also warning that inflationary pressures persist. Traders quickly raised the odds of a 25 bps rate cut in September to around 91%. Tech stocks performed particularly well, with Tesla jumping 6.2%, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all gaining more than 2%, and Nvidia up 1.7%. Intel shares soared 5.5% on reports that the Trump administration plans to acquire a 10% stake in the chipmaker.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per US dollar as weakness in the greenback outweighed poor domestic data. In Canada, the mood also turned more dovish for the Bank of Canada, as July retail sales were projected to have fallen 0.8%, the second-steepest decline in a year, highlighting the volatility in retail sales amid trade uncertainty with the US. Core average inflation held steady at 3.0% against expectations of 3.1%, and employment data showed an unexpected loss of 41,000 jobs in July versus expectations for a gain of 13,500. This kept the unemployment rate at 6.9%, reinforcing the case for a looser policy.

The Mexican peso strengthened to approximately 18.6 per US dollar, nearing its yearly high, driven by the weaker US dollar. Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech increased the likelihood of a September Fed rate cut, which pushed the US dollar lower. This eased pressure on the dollar as a whole and supported emerging market currencies. At the same time, Banxico’s quarter-point rate cut to 7.75% on August 15 was a split decision, and the minutes omitted previous language promising further easing. This signals a gradual approach to easing rather than an aggressive pivot, maintaining a positive real yield.

European stock markets traded without a clear direction on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.29% (+0.20% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed positive 0.40% (+0.51% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.61% (+0.81% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.13% higher (+2.00% for the week). Germany’s economy shrank by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter from April to June, a steeper contraction than the previous estimate of 0.1% and following a 0.3% growth in the first quarter.

WTI crude oil prices hit $63 a barrel on Friday, marking their first weekly gain in three weeks as geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics kept markets volatile. Uncertainty increased after Russia launched new airstrikes on Ukraine and Ukraine struck a refinery and a key oil pumping station, disrupting supplies on the “Druzhba” pipeline. Meanwhile, US crude oil stockpiles shrank by 6 million barrels last week, significantly more than expected, suggesting high demand and providing support for prices.

Silver soared to $39 per ounce, nearing its 14-year high of $39.5 reached in late July, amid the prospect of a Fed rate cut. Markets also assessed demand for silver’s industrial use. On the industrial front, new data showed that China’s solar panel exports surged more than 70% in the first half of the year, driven by rising demand for photovoltaics in India. This follows China installing over 93 gigawatts of solar panels in May, a 300% increase from a year earlier and a new record high.

Asian markets were mostly higher last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.89%, while China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 3.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.18%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week up 0.32%.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate slowed to 0.6% in July 2025 from 0.8% in the previous month, slightly below market expectations of 0.7%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.4%, the sharpest decline in six months, compared to a 0.1% drop in the prior period. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate in July fell to a four-month low of 0.5%, missing market estimates and a 0.6% gain in the previous month.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,466.91 +96.74 (+1.52%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,631.74 +846.24 (+1.89%)

DAX (DE40) 24,363.09 +69.75 (+0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,138.90 +12.20 (+0.13%)

USD Index 97.73 −0.89 (−0.90%)

News feed for: 2025.08.25

New Zealand Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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