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COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1M, SOFR 3M & US Treasury Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1M, SOFR 3M & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (123,476 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (57,037 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (363 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-249,778 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-122,286 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-63,204 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-24,994 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-12,628 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11,554 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Prices lower to unchanged this week

This week, major U.S. bond prices were slightly lower across the board. The longer US Treasury bonds fell by a little more than half a percent. The 10-year bonds fell by less than half a percent, followed by the five-year, the fed funds, and the two-year which were trading virtually unchanged for the week.

The U.S. bond yields were also little changed this week, with the 20-year yield coming in around 4.83%, followed by the 10-year at 4.28%. The five-year is at 3.83%, the two-year is at 3.76%, while fed funds is right around 4.33%.

All of these yields are within the same respective ranges that have been trading for the last couple of years.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (62 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the Fed Funds (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (12.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (58.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (12.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (22.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (45.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (44.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (89.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (62.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (31.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (37.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (34.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (29 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-32 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-31 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-8 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-32.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-3.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-30.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-10.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (29.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-1.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (6.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (8.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -227,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -249,778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	68.6	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	58.1	2.2
– Net Position:	-227,270	217,354	9,916
– Gross Longs:	261,534	1,412,579	54,234
– Gross Shorts:	488,804	1,195,225	44,318
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	81.6	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.2	32.9	-8.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -441,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 57,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -498,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	58.2	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	54.3	0.7
– Net Position:	-441,061	463,119	-22,058
– Gross Longs:	1,664,500	6,967,210	62,396
– Gross Shorts:	2,105,561	6,504,091	84,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	63.5	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.0	-3.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 123,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	66.1	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	64.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-25,184	24,066	1,118
– Gross Longs:	185,388	832,778	4,309
– Gross Shorts:	210,572	808,712	3,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	37.5	69.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-28.4	-7.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,325,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -122,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,203,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	79.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	53.6	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,325,523	1,192,903	132,620
– Gross Longs:	558,423	3,645,933	251,547
– Gross Shorts:	1,883,946	2,453,030	118,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	86.9	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	8.0	2.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,536,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,511,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.4	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	50.8	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,536,877	2,324,021	212,856
– Gross Longs:	507,247	5,947,099	458,407
– Gross Shorts:	3,044,124	3,623,078	245,551
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.6	90.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	5.1	-4.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -959,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -63,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -896,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	78.7	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	62.3	6.4
– Net Position:	-959,834	843,450	116,384
– Gross Longs:	544,016	4,037,361	442,063
– Gross Shorts:	1,503,850	3,193,911	325,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	79.3	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.6	36.6	6.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -359,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -346,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	77.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	60.8	11.6
– Net Position:	-359,622	410,592	-50,970
– Gross Longs:	299,620	1,904,035	234,010
– Gross Shorts:	659,242	1,493,443	284,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	84.1	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-1.7	-0.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	77.9	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	77.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-110,440	1,517	108,923
– Gross Longs:	116,997	1,371,668	241,556
– Gross Shorts:	227,437	1,370,151	132,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	39.4	90.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	-3.5	20.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -228,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -216,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	70.0	9.5
– Net Position:	-228,367	243,087	-14,720
– Gross Longs:	134,510	1,633,599	174,640
– Gross Shorts:	362,877	1,390,512	189,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.5	35.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	19.3	-32.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn, Soybean Meal & Cocoa

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (25,499 contracts) with Soybean Meal (1,061 contracts) and Cocoa (187 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-28,376 contracts), Sugar (-14,824 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,110 contracts), Wheat (-8,880 contracts), Cotton (-8,629 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,051 contracts), Coffee (-588 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-255 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee leads Price Changes

Leading the soft commodities markets this week in price changes was Coffee, with a gain of over five percent. Live Cattle also came in higher by over two percent. Lean Hogs were almost up by two percent, and Sugar was up by three quarters of one percent.

On the downside, Cocoa lost over six and a half percent from its price this week and has been down by over nine percent for the last 30 days. Soybean Oil was lower by 1.5 percent, Soybean Meal by just about one percent, while Corn and Soybeans were also down by a little over half a percent. Cotton and Wheat were mostly unchanged.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (83 percent), Lean Hogs (83 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (54 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Soybean Meal (2 percent), Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the and the Cocoa (20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (21.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.0 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.2 percent)
Coffee (54.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (54.8 percent)
Soybeans (40.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (47.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (83.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (89.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.6 percent)
Live Cattle (82.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (82.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (83.3 percent)
Cotton (16.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.5 percent)
Cocoa (20.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (20.0 percent)
Wheat (32.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (39.1 percent)

Soybean Oil & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (6 percent) and Corn (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (0.2 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-16 percent), Sugar (-8 percent) and Wheat (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-3.6 percent)
Sugar (-8.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-4.2 percent)
Coffee (-1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.9 percent)
Soybeans (-24.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-24.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (6.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (13.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-2.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.9 percent)
Live Cattle (0.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (-2.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.9 percent)
Cocoa (-2.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-7.3 percent)
Wheat (-6.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (12.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -107,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,499 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	41.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	32.6	11.4
– Net Position:	-107,968	147,872	-39,904
– Gross Longs:	304,053	674,523	144,743
– Gross Shorts:	412,021	526,651	184,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	79.6	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	0.7	-31.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -76,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	53.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	43.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-76,972	89,529	-12,557
– Gross Longs:	195,681	475,643	62,659
– Gross Shorts:	272,653	386,114	75,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	3.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	9.0	-11.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	39.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	57.4	4.2
– Net Position:	29,258	-29,818	560
– Gross Longs:	49,040	63,450	7,367
– Gross Shorts:	19,782	93,268	6,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	48.5	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	2.8	-18.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	53.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	46.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-39,160	54,893	-15,733
– Gross Longs:	156,793	454,917	49,527
– Gross Shorts:	195,953	400,024	65,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	58.9	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	26.3	-6.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 74,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	43.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	57.2	4.3
– Net Position:	74,946	-86,018	11,072
– Gross Longs:	145,207	269,368	38,074
– Gross Shorts:	70,261	355,386	27,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	17.7	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.4	5.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -81,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	51.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	42.3	5.1
– Net Position:	-81,610	63,890	17,720
– Gross Longs:	113,280	346,431	51,829
– Gross Shorts:	194,890	282,541	34,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	99.8	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	4.6	-35.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 106,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	28.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	50.4	13.6
– Net Position:	106,375	-83,729	-22,646
– Gross Longs:	185,524	111,147	30,020
– Gross Shorts:	79,149	194,876	52,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.9	20.3	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	3.9	-11.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	29.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	49.2	7.7
– Net Position:	73,138	-68,353	-4,785
– Gross Longs:	150,728	99,031	21,285
– Gross Shorts:	77,590	167,384	26,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	16.9	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	15.5	15.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	46.4	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	30.5	5.5
– Net Position:	-35,478	37,338	-1,860
– Gross Longs:	69,961	109,145	11,121
– Gross Shorts:	105,439	71,807	12,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.2	86.1	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	3.0	-6.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	42.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	56.3	7.3
– Net Position:	10,043	-13,330	3,287
– Gross Longs:	24,969	40,221	10,191
– Gross Shorts:	14,926	53,551	6,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	80.4	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	4.1	-12.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -78,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	36.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	20.4	8.0
– Net Position:	-78,565	80,870	-2,305
– Gross Longs:	132,500	181,531	37,218
– Gross Shorts:	211,065	100,661	39,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	71.4	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	4.6	13.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Aug

EUR/USD Rises as the Dollar Struggles Under Tariff Pressures and Fed Uncertainty

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Friday, climbing to 1.1657, buoyed by expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and growing concerns over the economic impact of new US tariffs.

Recent data revealed that jobless claims exceeded forecasts this week, further signalling a softening labour market following last week’s lacklustre employment report.

On the political front, attention remains fixed on potential shifts within the Fed. US President Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, head of the Council of Economic Advisers, to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors. Meanwhile, reports suggest Christopher Waller is emerging as a leading candidate for Fed Chair. These developments have reinforced market expectations of an imminent rate cut as early as September.

Adding to the dollar’s woes, new US retaliatory tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, came into effect at midnight on Thursday. This has stoked fears of economic headwinds, further dampening sentiment towards the greenback.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD saw a corrective move to 1.1698, followed by consolidation near the top of this correction. A break below 1.1611 could trigger a downward wave towards 1.1520, with potential for further declines to 1.1343. The MACD indicator supports this bearish scenario: its signal line remains above zero but has exited the histogram zone, suggesting a pullback towards lower levels.

H1 Chart:

The pair formed a downward impulse to 1.1611, followed by a rebound to 1.1679. The current consolidation phase appears set for a downward breakout, potentially initiating a fifth wave of decline towards 1.1520. A brief retest of 1.1611 (from below) may follow before another drop to 1.1444, with an eventual target of 1.1343. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under upward pressure amid speculation about the Fed and concerns over tariffs, but technical indicators suggest a near-term bearish correction is likely.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Aug

Bank of Mexico cuts interest rate to 7.75%. Trump announces 100% tariff on imported microchips

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.51%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.08%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index (US100) closed higher by 0.35%. The US indices came under pressure on Thursday, as early gains faded amid renewed trade tensions. The Nasdaq 100 posted a modest gain, initially supported by semiconductor stocks after Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported microchips, excluding US manufacturers. However, sentiment quickly deteriorated due to broader trade concerns. Investors also reacted to reports that Fed Governor Christopher Waller may be Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve, fueling expectations of a rate cut in September.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.6 per US dollar after Banxico cut the overnight rate to 7.75%, reducing some of the carry appeal that had recently supported the currency. The move followed a drop in annual inflation from 4.51% to 3.51% and somewhat stronger economic growth in Q2. However, the Central Bank maintained a cautious tone, citing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks as potential inflation triggers via peso depreciation, or as threats to growth momentum. Meanwhile, Washington imposed new tariffs (25% on steel and 10% on aluminum from Mexico, with additional tariffs on auto parts set to take effect next week), posing further risks to export revenue and industrial output.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 1.12%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.97%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.06%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) declined by 0.69%.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices fell to $63.90 per barrel, marking a sixth consecutive day of losses, as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the war in Ukraine weighed on prices. The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet US President Donald Trump in the coming days, their first summit since 2021, raising hopes for de-escalation. Meanwhile, Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on Indian goods over continued imports of Russian oil and signaled the possibility of further tariffs against China. Saudi Arabia also raised prices for September oil deliveries to Asian buyers for the second month in a row, citing tight supply and strong demand.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.65%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.31%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.69%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down 0.14%.

Japan’s services PMI rose to 45.2 in July 2025 from 45.0 in June, the highest reading since February and the third consecutive monthly increase, though it came in slightly below the market expectation of 45.5. Meanwhile, the Economic Outlook Index climbed to a six-month high of 47.3 from 45.9 in June, supported by signs of an economic rebound, including expectations of stronger consumer demand, despite ongoing concerns about cost pressures and US trade policy uncertainty.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar held steady at USD 0.596, near a one-week high, supported by weakness in the US dollar. The greenback remained under pressure amid rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and concerns about the impact of new tariffs on the US economy. The kiwi also drew support from still-strong trade data out of China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, which showed July export growth exceeded expectations, offering some relief amid the fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington. However, domestic sentiment was dampened by recent labor market data indicating ongoing weakness, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower interest rates at its meeting later this month.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,340.00 −5.06 (−0.08%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,968.64 −224.48 (−0.51%)

DAX (DE40) 24,192.50 +268.14 (+1.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,100.77 −63.54 (−0.69%)

USD Index 98.09 −0.08 (−0.09%)

News feed for: 2025.08.08

Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 Aug

Oil prices fell below $65 per barrel. The RBA and RBNZ are likely to cut rates further in August

By JustMarkets

As of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.18%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.73%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up by 1.21%. The US stocks rose as investors reacted to strong corporate earnings and a major announcement from Apple, which pledged to invest an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing. Despite positive earnings reports from companies like Disney and Uber, some stocks, such as AMD, Snap, and Super Micro Computer, plunged due to disappointing results. Investor sentiment was supported by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with odds climbing to over 93% following soft labor market data. However, trade tensions flared again after President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to continued imports of Russian oil, adding uncertainty.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.33%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.18%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended 0.24% higher. The Frankfurt DAX closed higher at 23,924, marking its third consecutive session of gains as traders weighed corporate earnings and looming US tariffs. President Trump is expected to impose broad tariffs on August 7 against countries that have not concluded trade deals. While the EU and US are finalizing their agreement, 15% tariffs on EU goods will take effect tomorrow, with Trump warning of a possible increase to 35% if the promised European investments are not fulfilled. He also confirmed plans to introduce tariffs on pharmaceutical imports “within the next week or so.”

WTI crude oil prices reversed earlier gains on Wednesday and fell by 1.2% to $64.30 per barrel, marking the fifth consecutive decline and hitting a new six-week low. Prices initially rose on supply concerns following President Trump’s decree imposing 25% tariffs on Indian goods due to Russian oil imports. Temporary support also came from a larger-than-expected US crude inventory draw of 3 million barrels. However, gains were dampened after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that an announcement regarding potential sanctions against Russia could come later in the day, adding uncertainty to the market.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) climbed by 0.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dipped by 0.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) edged up 0.03%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed with a solid 0.84% gain.

The Australian dollar strengthened to USD 0.648 on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, as rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September boosted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, with little data expected this week, the Aussie may face headwinds as markets fully price in a 25 bp RBA rate cut to 3.60% on August 12.

The New Zealand dollar rose to USD 0.592 on Wednesday, rebounding from multi-week lows. However, the Kiwi’s upside may be limited by weaker-than-expected local employment data. New Zealand’s unemployment rate in Q2 rose to nearly a five-year high of 5.2%, slightly below expectations of 5.3%. This strengthened expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut rates at its upcoming August meeting. Markets currently price in a 90% chance of a 25 bp cut, with further easing to 2.75% expected by year-end or early next year. Additional concern comes from the Trump administration’s imposition of 15% tariffs on New Zealand exports starting August 7, which could place further pressure on the export-driven economy.

The offshore yuan remained stable around 7.18 per dollar on Thursday as investors digested the latest trade data. China’s trade surplus in July 2025 rose to $98.24 billion from $85.27 billion a year earlier. Export growth reached a three-month high of 7.2% year-over-year, significantly beating market expectations of 5.4%, mainly due to a temporary easing in tariff pressures ahead of the looming August deadline. Meanwhile, imports unexpectedly rose to an annual high, increasing 4.1% year-over-year, defying expectations for a 1.0% decline. In light of recent developments tied to a trade truce, President Donald Trump stated that the US and China are “very close” to extending the agreement set to expire on August 12.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,345.06 +45.87 (+0.73%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,193.12 +81.38 (+0.18%)

DAX (DE40) 23,924.36 +78.29 (+0.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,164.31 +21.58 (+0.24%)

USD Index 98.23 −0.55 (−0.55%)

News feed for: 2025.08.07

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 Aug

Pound Under Pressure Ahead of Bank of England Meeting

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair climbed to 1.3355 on Thursday as markets braced for today’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting. Traders are closely watching two key factors: the voting split among Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members and any signals regarding future rate moves.

The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%. However, there is speculation that some members, such as Swati Dingra or Alan Taylor, could push for a more aggressive 50 bps reduction, as seen in May. Should this occur, particularly if accompanied by a shift away from the BoE’s usual cautious tone, the pound could come under significant selling pressure.

Currently, markets have largely priced in a quarter-point cut. Yet, uncertainty remains around the future path of interest rates. While UK inflation remains elevated at 3.6%, well above the 2% target, the economy is weakening, and the labour market is showing signs of strain.

The baseline scenario suggests the BoE will maintain a gradual, data-dependent approach, with potential quarterly cuts. However, any deviation, such as a more aggressive voting split or dovish guidance, could significantly shift market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

The GBP/USD pair has retraced to 1.3366 in a technical correction. A fifth downward wave towards 1.2942 is likely, potentially followed by a corrective rebound to 1.3366. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line hovering near zero, signalling that downside momentum may soon resume.

H1 Chart:

A corrective wave is forming following the recent decline. The pair is currently consolidating around 1.3273 –a break above this range could see a push towards 1.3377. However, upon reaching this area, a fresh decline towards 1.3160 is anticipated. A breakdown below this would open the path to 1.2942. This bearish scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with the signal line below 80 and trending sharply down towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound remains vulnerable ahead of the BoE’s decision, with risks skewed towards further weakness if the central bank adopts a more dovish stance. Technically, the setup points to a resumption of the downtrend, with key levels at 1.3160 and 1.2942 in focus.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Aug

The Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates unchanged. In Vietnam, inflationary pressures continue to ease

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.49%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) ended lower by 0.65%. The US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as investors grappled with disappointing economic data, escalating trade tensions, and mixed corporate earnings. Stagflation concerns resurfaced after the ISM Services Index showed activity stalled in July. Meanwhile, President Trump’s threats to impose steep tariffs of up to 250% on pharmaceutical imports, along with potential tariffs on semiconductors, heightened market anxiety amid ongoing trade uncertainty with India, Switzerland, and China. On the earnings front, Palantir rose by 7.8% after raising its revenue expectations, while Pfizer gained 5.2% following a strong quarterly report.

In June 2025, Canada’s trade deficit widened to CAD 5.9 billion (seasonally adjusted), up from the revised figure of CAD 5.5 billion in the previous month. Imports increased by 1.4% from a six-month low to CAD 67.6 billion, marking the first increase in four months. Exports to the US, subject to sectoral and country-specific tariffs, rose 3.1% from the previous month but remained 12.5% lower year-over-year.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.14%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.16%. The DAX in Frankfurt gave up early gains and closed 0.4% higher on Tuesday as investors continued to monitor earnings season and trade developments, with US tariffs set to take effect on August 7. Under the US-EU deal, most EU exporters will face a unified 15% US tariff — half the 30% Trump had previously threatened. In return, the EU pledged to lower its own tariffs on certain goods and boost energy imports from the US by $750 billion over the remaining three and a half years of Trump’s presidency. However, Trump warned he could impose 35% tariffs on the EU if Brussels fails to meet its $600 billion investment commitment in US infrastructure.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $65 per barrel on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing streak and rebounding from a five-week low amid supply disruption concerns. Investors assessed potential supply interruptions, as India may reduce imports of Russian oil in response to President Trump’s tariff threats over continued purchases. Trump warned of raising tariffs on Indian goods within 24 hours to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Additional support for bulls came from API data showing a 4.2 million barrel drop in US crude inventories last week, exceeding market expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decline and signaling stronger-than-expected demand.

Silver held near $37.8 per ounce on Wednesday after rising for three straight sessions, supported by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The latest ISM Services PMI for July pointed to sluggish growth, a decline in employment, and persistent price pressures, reinforcing signs of labor market cooling after last week’s weaker-than-expected payroll report. Markets are now pricing in two Fed rate cuts by year-end, with the first potentially in September.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.64%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.94%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.68%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a strong performance, up 1.23%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), at its August meeting, held the key repo rate steady at 5.50%, maintaining a neutral stance after cutting the rate by 50 basis points in June, more than usual and in line with expectations. The rate remains at its lowest level since August 2022. The decision came amid easing inflation and the recent US announcement of 25% tariffs on Indian imports. On the economic outlook, the RBI maintained its GDP growth expectations at 6.5% for the 2025/26 fiscal year and 6.6% for the following year. Meanwhile, inflation expectations were revised downward to 3.1% from 3.7%, remaining within the RBI’s target range of 2-6%.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.19% in July 2025 from 3.57% in June, marking the lowest level in three months. Meanwhile, core inflation, excluding volatile items, slowed to 3.30% in July from 3.46% in June, also a three-month low. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.11%, down from a 0.48% increase in the previous period.

In June 2025, the unemployment rate in New Zealand rose to 5.2%, which is slightly higher than the previous figure of 5.1% and in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed increased to 158,000 people compared to 156,000 in March, representing an annual increase of 16,000 people, or 11.1%. This data indicates growing slack in the labor market, putting pressure on policymakers as economic dynamics continue to weaken.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,299.19 −30.75 (−0.49%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,111.74 −61.90 (−0.14%)

DAX (DE40) 23,846.07 +88.38 (+0.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,142.73 +14.43 (+0.16%)

USD Index 98.76 −0.03 (−0.03%)

News feed for: 2025.08.06

New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
Japan Average Cash Earnings (y/y) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Aug

Gold Holds Near Two-Week High

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Wednesday, the price of gold dipped to 3,375 USD per troy ounce but remained close to a two-week high, retaining most of its recent gains.

The market remains buoyed by demand for defensive assets amid expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy.

The previous day saw the release of US ISM data, which showed the services sector business activity index for July falling to 50.1 points – below forecasts. The figures indicated sluggish growth, slowing employment, and mounting price pressures. Earlier data also pointed to a weakening labour market and declining consumer spending.

These developments have bolstered expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as September, with markets now pricing in a 90% probability of such a move.

Further support for gold comes from new trade tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, alongside investor concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence following the resignation of Board of Governors member Lisa Kugler. Her departure paves the way for Trump to appoint a more accommodative successor.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is forming a broad consolidation range around 3,346 USD on the H4 chart. The market has corrected to 3,390 USD. Today, we assess the likelihood of a new downward wave developing towards 3,333 USD. A break below this level could extend the decline to a minimum of 3,255 USD. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero near recent highs but shows signs of an impending downturn.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a corrective structure to 3,390 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level, with a downward breakout likely to extend the decline towards 3,320 USD. A breach of this support could signal further downside momentum, potentially targeting 3,200 USD. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold remains resilient near recent highs, supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. However, technical indicators suggest potential near-term downside, with key support levels at 3,333 USD (H4) and 3,320 USD (H1) in focus.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

05 Aug

Bitcoin waits for fresh directional spark

By ForexTime

Bitcoin ↓ 1.6% month-to-date
Fresh catalyst needed to break out of range
Trump’s tariff & US data could spark volatility
Technical levels: $120k, $115k, $112k

Bitcoin remains in standby mode with prices lingering around $115k in the absence of a fresh directional catalyst.

Despite the action witnessed last Friday, the “OG” crypto remains trapped within a range with support identified at the 50-day SMA.

This period of calm could come to an end amid Trump’s tariff drama and market bets around the Fed cutting interest rates.

As of now, the massive ETF outflow of $812 million last Friday suggests that bears could strike. This was the biggest single-day outflow seen since late February 2025, when Bitcoin ended the month 17% lower.

Considering how Trump’s updated tariffs come into effect on Thursday, 7th August, risk assets, including Bitcoin could be exposed to downside risks.

Beyond the tariff drama, Bitcoin could also be influenced by US economic data and Fed cut expectations. Should US data support the argument around lower interest rates, this may support Bitcoin. The same can be said vice versa.

Potential scenarios:

Bullish Scenario: A clean breakout above $115k could push prices toward $120k and $123k.

Bearish Scenario: Weakness below $115k may trigger a decline back toward $112k and $110k.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

05 Aug

EUR/USD Pressured by External Factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair edged lower on Tuesday, dipping to 1.1556 amid subdued trading activity. Market participants are cautiously assessing the latest trade signals and recalibrating their expectations for monetary policy.

Trade tensions resurfaced as US President Donald Trump threatened India with steep tariff hikes over its continued purchases of Russian oil. Meanwhile, the European Union postponed retaliatory tariffs against the US by six months, with both sides pledging further negotiations.

The US dollar faced downward pressure last week following the release of a disappointing US employment report. July’s figures fell short of forecasts, reinforcing market bets on a Fed rate cut in September. Investors are now pricing in over 60 basis points’ worth of easing by year-end.

Political uncertainty also weighed on sentiment. The resignation of a Federal Reserve Board member and the dismissal of a key statistical agency head under Trump’s administration have fuelled concerns over stability in the US economic leadership.

Market focus now shifts to June’s foreign trade data and the latest ISM PMI report, which could offer fresh insights into the health of the US economy.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD corrected to 1.1590 before entering consolidation below this level. A breakout towards 1.1615 remains possible, but the primary expectation is a resumption of the downtrend, targeting 1.1348 as the next key support. This bearish view is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line firmly below zero and pointing downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1555, with the minimum correction target already met. A downside breakout is anticipated, initiating the fifth wave of decline towards 1.1348. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further losses, driven by a combination of weakening technical structure and external macroeconomic pressures. Traders should monitor US economic data for signals on near-term direction, as the broader downtrend remains intact.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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