InvestMacro

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.34% by the end of Monday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.47%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 1.95% higher. The indexes’ growth was fueled by renewed hopes for a September Fed rate cut following a weak July employment report and a downward revision of data from previous months. In response, President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and stated he would name a replacement this week. Meanwhile, updated tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% added additional pressure, although Switzerland and the EU signaled an openness to negotiations. Mega-cap tech stocks led the gains as traders focused on strong earnings, with 82% of S&P 500 companies reporting better-than-expected results so far. Palantir jumped 4.2% ahead of its post-market earnings release, Nvidia was up 3.5%, and Amazon gained 1.5%.

European stock markets were mostly higher yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 1.42%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.14%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.84%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.66% higher on Monday. The FTSE 100’s Monday gains were driven by a sharp rise in British bank stocks after a favorable Supreme Court ruling on a motor finance case. Shares of Lloyds Banking Group surged over 8% to their highest level since 2015, while Barclays climbed 1.5%. HSBC and Standard Chartered also saw gains. The ruling overturned a lower court decision, easing fears of massive compensation payouts related to mis-selling car loans. The Financial Conduct Authority is now estimating a potential redress amount of £9 billion, significantly lower than earlier market fears of up to £30 billion. The ratings agency RBC upgraded Lloyds, the largest player in the UK car finance market, calling the court decision an “event that removes significant pressure on the stock.” BP shares also rose nearly 2% ahead of its earnings report as investors anticipate new insights into the company’s return to traditional energy sources.

The Swiss franc weakened to 0.81 against the US dollar as concerns about newly announced US tariffs overshadowed modest Swiss inflation growth. On August 1st, the Trump administration announced 39% tariffs on Swiss exports, higher than the 31% tariffs announced in April, with the measures taking effect on August 7th. If the tariffs remain in place, they are expected to intensify disinflationary pressure in Switzerland. Meanwhile, inflation in July grew slightly to 0.2% year-over-year, which was higher than the 0.1% expectation but still near zero. The subdued price growth, combined with rising external risks, suggests that the Swiss National Bank may resort to further negative interest rate cuts. The Swiss Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in July from 49.6 in June, signaling a deeper downturn in the sector.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $66.3 per barrel on Monday as traders digested the OPEC+ decision to increase production and growing geopolitical uncertainty. The group confirmed a widely anticipated production increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, completing the phased unwinding of voluntary cuts enacted in 2023. While the move was expected, it heightened expectations that global oil supply could outpace demand this year, potentially leading to a buildup in inventories. Traders are also monitoring potential US actions on Russian oil flows. President Trump has threatened to impose additional sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, specifically targeting India, with possible measures taking effect as early as August 8th.

The US natural gas prices fell below the $3/ 3/MMBtu mark, nearing a low not seen since November 2024, as production outpaces demand. According to LSEG, average output in the Lower 48 states reached 107.5 billion cubic feet per day in July, surpassing June’s record of 106.4 billion cubic feet per day. As a result, the latest EIA data showed a larger-than-expected injection into storage of 48 billion cubic feet for the week ending July 25th, exceeding forecasts of 38 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.25%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.52%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.92%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) had a positive result of 0.02% yesterday.

Hong Kong stocks dropped to 24,711 on Tuesday morning, reversing the previous session’s gains. Investors cautiously awaited China’s July trade data and upcoming inflation figures amid concerns over rising trade barriers and weak domestic demand. Consumer stocks fell while real estate, financial, and tech stocks saw modest gains. Further losses were contained by an overnight rally on Wall Street amid some bargain hunting after Friday’s decline and increased bets on a September rate cut. Meanwhile, according to a private survey, China’s services activity grew at its fastest pace in 14 months in July.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 1.23% (-3.02% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped by 1.60% (-2.50% for the week), and the Nasdaq Tech Index (US100) closed down by 1.96% (-2.48% for the week). The US stocks fell on Friday as investors reacted to weak July employment data and a new round of tariffs announced by President Trump. Non-farm payrolls increased by just 73,000 in July, well below expectations, and sharp downward revisions to previous months’ data pointed to deeper labor market weakness. Treasury yields fell, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September rose above 80%. Sentiment also soured after the US imposed new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from key partners, including Canada, India, and Taiwan. On the corporate front, Amazon dropped nearly 8% due to disappointing cloud forecasts, dragging the broader market, while Apple fell 2.9% despite strong results. Exxon (-1.8%) and Chevron (-0.1%) beat expectations, Eli Lilly rose by 3% on hopes of drug coverage, while Moderna plunged 6.6% amid renewed vaccine concerns.

The Mexican peso fell to a one-month low, breaking through 18.80 per USD, despite broad dollar weakness, primarily reflecting domestic factors and tariff concerns weighing on the currency. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July remained at 49.1 for the thirteenth consecutive month, while the business confidence index stayed below the 49.4 threshold, indicating falling export demand and reduced capital expenditures.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.38 per USD, rebounding from a two-month low as the dollar weakened following the weak US non-farm payroll report showing just 73,000 new jobs vs. 110,000 expected, and a net downward revision of 258,000 positions. This boosted bets on a Fed rate cut in September. At the same time, Canada’s economy showed surprising resilience: after a 0.1% GDP contraction in May, a 0.1% increase is expected in June, with manufacturing output rising by 0.7%. This supports the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold rates steady at 2.75%, standing in sharp contrast to the Fed’s more dovish stance. Although President Trump’s surprise announcement of 35% tariffs briefly shook markets, Canadian exemptions under USMCA effectively cap export taxes at around 5%, softening any major impact on cross-border trade flows.

European stock markets mostly declined on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell 2.66% (weekly: -4.09%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 2.91% (weekly: -4.77%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) dropped 1.88% (weekly: -1.68%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Friday 0.70% (weekly: -0.57%). European equities closed sharply lower on Friday, following a steep global market sell-off as the US government expanded the range of imports subject to tariffs. While the base tariff remained at 10%, rates were sharply increased for India (25%), Canada (35%), and Switzerland (39%). Overall, the average US tariff rate will rise to 15%, compared to roughly 2% in 2024. Additionally, banks and industrial giants fell sharply following the pessimistic US labor report: Siemens, Intesa Sanpaolo, ING, BNP Paribas, and Schneider dropped more than 4%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.7% to $67.3 per barrel on Friday amid reports that OPEC and its allies may soon agree to raise output. Market sentiment also deteriorated following newly signed tariffs by President Trump on imports from dozens of countries, including Canada, India, and Taiwan, which will take effect on August 7.

Silver hovered around $37 per ounce on Monday after rising nearly 1% in the previous session, supported by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut following the weak July jobs report. A falling dollar and lower Treasury yields further boosted silver’s appeal.

Asian markets mostly declined last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 1.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 3.74%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a slight weekly loss of 0.06%.

On Monday, the offshore yuan held its recent gains at 7.19 per USD after the People’s Bank of China announced the formation of a new committee on macroprudential and financial stability. The central bank reaffirmed its accommodative stance, pledging to manage key financial risks and maintain ample liquidity in H2 with an “appropriately loose” monetary policy. Lending to strategic sectors such as technology and green development has surged, reflecting policy priorities. Meanwhile, investors are watching the key October policy plenum, where officials are expected to present countermeasures to persistent deflationary pressure, excess industrial capacity, and the ongoing real estate downturn. Recent signals from the Politburo point to more stimulus through bond issuance and demand-boosting measures.

By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 0.38%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.12%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.15%. The US stocks ended mostly lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, as investors digested a wave of earnings reports. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the Fed is still assessing the impact of Trump-era tariffs on inflation, which tempered expectations for near-term rate cuts. The decision was not unanimous: Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller supported a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Investors also evaluated corporate earnings: Humana, Kraft Heinz, and Visa gained on strong results, while Starbucks dropped over 1% despite higher revenue. Meanwhile, trade tensions escalated as President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Indian goods and 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports.

The Canadian dollar fell to 1.38 per US dollar, its weakest level in two months, pressured by a stronger US dollar, while Canada’s monetary and economic environment had little impact on the Loonie. The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep its key rate at 2.75%, the third pause after seven cuts. This highlighted policymakers’ caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, an expected GDP slowdown in Q2 (after exporters front-loaded shipments in Q1), and projections that CPI inflation will remain close to the 2% target in the medium term.

European stock markets were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.06%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.23%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended slightly higher by 0.01%. Investors evaluated a range of regional economic data and fresh corporate earnings while keeping an eye on trade talks. Germany’s economy contracted by 0.1% in Q2, reversing a 0.4% growth in Q1. Meanwhile, the German cabinet approved a draft 2026 budget featuring a record €126.7 billion in investments and €174 billion in planned borrowing.

On the corporate front, Siemens Healthineers rose around 2% on strong Q3 results and updated expectations, and Porsche AG gained 1.7% as investors welcomed its strategic restructuring despite a projection cut due to €400 million in tariff-related losses. Among decliners, Adidas plunged over 11% after missing revenue targets, and Mercedes-Benz dropped 3.4% after H1 profit halved and its full-year revenue outlook was lowered.

WTI crude oil prices climbed above $70 per barrel on Wednesday, holding at a five-week high, driven by concerns over supply after President Donald Trump pressured Russia to shorten the timeline for ending the war in Ukraine. Trump gave Moscow a 10-day ultimatum to propose a satisfactory resolution or face consequences, including 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing trade with Russia. These measures could significantly disrupt oil markets, as key US trading partners, major buyers of Russian oil, might reduce or halt purchases.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day with a gain of 0.60%.

Official PMI data from China indicated a slowdown in July, with the composite PMI falling to a three-month low of 50.2 from June’s 50.7. Manufacturing activity remained in contraction, slipping to 49.3 from 49.7, while the services PMI declined to 50.1 — the weakest in eight months — from 50.5. Despite weak data, sentiment found some support from Wednesday’s Politburo meeting.

At its July meeting, the Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, maintaining borrowing costs at their highest level since 2008, in line with market expectations. The decision was unanimous, reflecting the Central Bank’s cautious stance on policy normalization. In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ raised its core inflation expectations for fiscal year 2025 to 2.7%, up from April’s 2.2%, while expecting it to drop to 1.8% in FY2026 and rise again to 2.0% in FY2027. The GDP growth estimate for FY2025 was slightly raised to 0.6% from 0.5%, while the FY2026 growth projection remained unchanged at 0.7%.

As of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.46%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.30%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.21%. The three major US indexes ended Tuesday in the red as mixed corporate earnings reports and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision weighed on investor sentiment. Weak results from UnitedHealth (-7.5%), Boeing (-4.4%), and Merck (-1.7%) dragged the market down, while United Parcel Service and Whirlpool also slumped more than 10% following disappointing earnings and expectations. Investors also reacted to a decline in job openings and hiring in June, although consumer confidence in July came in higher than expected. Meanwhile, trade talks between the US and China ended without a final agreement, leaving hopes alive for an extension of the current tariff truce.

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, but markets are closely watching for signals on the future direction of policy amid signs of slowing inflation.

The Bank of Canada will also hold its policy meeting today. It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.75%, but the tone of the statement and the follow-up press conference will be key for markets. Recent data points to economic weakness: GDP is expected to contract for the third consecutive month, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by year-end. With slowing inflation and weakening domestic demand, the Bank of Canada may lean toward a more dovish outlook.

The IMF expects global economic growth at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, slightly above its April 2025 projections. The upgrade — by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 and 0.1 percentage points for 2026 — reflects stronger-than-expected economic activity, lower-than-expected US tariff rates, improved financial conditions (partly due to a weaker US dollar), and expanded fiscal policies in several major economies. Despite the slightly improved outlook, the IMF warns that risks remain tilted to the downside. Growth projections for key economies include the US at 1.9% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, the Eurozone at 1.0% and 1.2%, and the UK at 1.2% and 1.4%. China’s growth was revised upward to 4.8% and 4.2%, while Japan is expected to grow at a more modest pace of 0.7% and 0.5%.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 1.03%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.72%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended up 0.60%. The FTSE 100 climbed over 0.5% to a new record high, supported by strong corporate earnings and improved sentiment around the UK economy. Shares of AstraZeneca jumped 3.5% following strong Q2 results, driven by high cancer drug sales and reaffirmed guidance. Barclays also rose by 2.5% despite a mixed earnings report, as its investment banking division posted solid results, benefiting from market volatility. Optimism was further boosted by the IMF’s projection that the UK’s economic growth this year and next will outpace other major European economies.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.7% to close at $69.20 per barrel on Tuesday, reaching a five-week high and extending Monday’s 2.4% gain, as easing trade tensions and rising geopolitical risks fueled supply concerns. Additional support came from former President Trump, who increased pressure on Russia by setting a shorter deadline for progress in ending the war in Ukraine and threatening new sanctions.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.79%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.01%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HK50) declined by 0.15%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a modest gain of 0.08%.

The Australian dollar rose above the $0.651 level on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing streak, as a weaker US dollar outweighed weak domestic inflation data. In Australia, consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in over four years in Q2: the headline CPI was 0.7% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year, while core inflation fell to a three-year low of 2.7% year-over-year. Both figures came in below expectations and within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range. The soft inflation data strengthened expectations for policy easing, with markets now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the RBA’s August meeting.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) edged up by 0.02%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.36%. The US stocks were mostly flat as investors digested the new trade agreement between the US and the EU and prepared for a busy week filled with earnings reports and key economic data.

President Trump announced a tariff agreement with the EU, setting a baseline rate of 15% (lower than the previously threatened 30%) amid growing hopes for an extension of the US-China trade truce. Despite easing trade tensions, market sentiment remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainty about the broader economic impact of tariffs. Attention is now shifting to earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, as well as the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where investors will closely watch for any hints of a potential rate cut in September.

European stock markets mostly declined yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped by 1.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.43%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.43%. Major European equity markets fell after an early rally driven by the US-EU trade deal. The framework agreement includes a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, as well as an EU commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of energy and additional military equipment from the US. The deal also provides selective access to key segments of the European market. While considered a better outcome than the previously threatened 30–50% tariffs proposed by Trump, lingering uncertainty over the final terms sparked concern among European leaders.

WTI crude oil prices jumped more than 2% to $66.70 per barrel on Monday amid renewed geopolitical fears after US President Donald Trump accelerated the deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump warned that Russia has 10–12 days to comply or face 100% “secondary tariffs,” raising concerns over potential disruptions in oil supplies. This follows new EU sanctions, including a lower price cap on Russian oil and a ban on importing petroleum products from third countries, set to take effect in January. If fully implemented, such measures could reduce global oil supply, especially given OPEC’s limited spare capacity.

The US natural gas prices dropped to $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest level since April 22, as weaker-than-expected summer heat and high production levels kept downward pressure on prices throughout July. Meanwhile, production remained high, averaging 107.2 billion cubic feet per day across the lower 48 US states in July, exceeding June’s record of 106.4 billion cubic feet per day. Inventories were about 6% above seasonal norms, reinforcing the view of an oversupplied market.

On Monday, silver prices remained under pressure, staying below $38.50 per ounce after falling more than 2% in the previous session, as recent trade deals between the US and key partners reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, markets are watching for further developments in US-China trade talks, which begin today in Stockholm, with expectations that discussions will go beyond tariffs and include broader geopolitical and economic issues.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 1.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed by 0.68%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.36%.

Thailand aims to finalize trade negotiations with the US by the August 1 deadline, and US tariffs are unlikely to reach 36%, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said on Tuesday. Bangkok expects a “very favorable” trade deal from the Trump administration following a peace initiative that resolved the border conflict with Cambodia. In 2024, the US was Thailand’s largest export market, accounting for 18.3% of total exports, or $54.96 billion, while the US trade deficit with Thailand stood at $45.6 billion.

Hong Kong’s trade deficit widened to $58.9 billion in June 2025 from $55.7 billion in the same month last year. Exports rose by 11.9% year-over-year to $417.8 billion. Meanwhile, imports increased by 11.1% to $476.7 billion. Imports from most major suppliers showed strong growth, particularly from Vietnam (+50.6%), the United Kingdom (+44.7%), and the US (+3.9%).