Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 44

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (167,521 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (117,989 contracts), the Fed Funds (87,943 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (38,673 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8,102 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (4,470 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-88,017 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-28,509 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,274 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Fed Funds leads Bonds Price Changes

Leading the bond market’s price performance this week was the Fed Funds, with a modest gain of 0.29%. The Fed Funds have been up by 0.28% over the past 30 days, and are higher by 1.34% over the past 90 days.

Next up, we have the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which rose by 0.25% followed by the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which was a tick higher by 0.09%. Both of these markets are up by over 1% in the last 90 days, respectively.

The 2-Year Bonds were virtually unchanged, with a 0.04% gain on the week. The 2-year bond has been higher by 0.75% over the past 90 days.

The 5-Year Bonds were slightly lower, with a -0.15% decline on the week. However, the 5-Year Bonds have increased by over 2% in the past 90 days. The 10-Year Bonds were lower by -0.39%. The 10-Year Bonds are up by 1% over the past 30 days, and higher by over 3% in the past 90 days.

Finally, the U.S. Treasury Bond was lower by -1.03% over the past week. However, the U.S. Treasury Bond has been higher by 1.54% in the past 30 days, and has advanced by 3.22% in the past 90 days.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (72 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (55 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 1-Month (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (36.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (38.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (36.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (49.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (20.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (55.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (46.5 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-64 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (16.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-36.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-64.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-14.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (17.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (12.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -119,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 87,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -207,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	63.6	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	59.4	1.4
– Net Position:	-119,513	107,071	12,442
– Gross Longs:	359,323	1,606,503	47,927
– Gross Shorts:	478,836	1,499,432	35,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	54.6	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-17.8	3.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 167,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,004 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	55.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-98,483	97,806	677
– Gross Longs:	1,999,586	7,670,131	35,703
– Gross Shorts:	2,098,069	7,572,325	35,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	44.6	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-18.9	11.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -297,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -88,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -209,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	71.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	53.4	0.0
– Net Position:	-297,794	297,793	1
– Gross Longs:	193,227	1,182,295	273
– Gross Shorts:	491,021	884,502	272
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.0	64.2	-2.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,403,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,374,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	78.5	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	51.0	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,403,470	1,248,246	155,224
– Gross Longs:	569,143	3,564,142	258,784
– Gross Shorts:	1,972,613	2,315,896	103,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.0	90.8	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	5.9	6.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,436,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 117,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,554,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.8	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	50.7	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,436,774	2,234,545	202,229
– Gross Longs:	519,377	5,660,026	458,365
– Gross Shorts:	2,956,151	3,425,481	256,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	86.8	87.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-4.6	-2.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -819,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -857,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	75.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	63.4	6.0
– Net Position:	-819,299	659,945	159,354
– Gross Longs:	728,767	4,088,798	481,431
– Gross Shorts:	1,548,066	3,428,853	322,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	53.5	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-25.8	14.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -266,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -274,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	75.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	61.3	12.4
– Net Position:	-266,822	332,797	-65,975
– Gross Longs:	345,310	1,791,967	228,464
– Gross Shorts:	612,132	1,459,170	294,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	63.4	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.0	-20.8	-14.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -94,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	77.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	79.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-94,138	-41,776	135,914
– Gross Longs:	151,579	1,412,245	258,901
– Gross Shorts:	245,717	1,454,021	122,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	26.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-12.6	22.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -263,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -248,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-263,219	262,589	630
– Gross Longs:	135,468	1,645,379	183,916
– Gross Shorts:	398,687	1,382,790	183,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	42.7	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.2	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

21 Sep

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by WTI Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (16,865 contracts) with Gasoline (2,538 contracts), Brent Oil (1,496 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (30 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-16,397 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-474 contracts) also seeing slightly lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas leads Energy Price Changes

The energy markets price changes were mixed this week. Natural Gas was the highest mover with a muted 0.37% gain over the past 5 days. Natural Gas has been down -7.12% over the past 30 days while dropping a sharp -31.52% over the past 90 days.

Next up, Heating Oil was higher by 0.25% this week. Heating Oil is up 2.65% over the past 30 days while seeing a gain of 10.57% over the past 90 days.

WTI Crude Oil edged higher this week by 0.22% and has been up 8.73% over the past 90 days.

Brent Crude Oil was modestly lower by -0.38% over the past week. Brent Crude Oil has been up by approximately 1.5% in the past 30 days and is higher by 9% in the past 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next lowest with a -0.43% return on the week while Gasoline saw the highest decline on the week with a -0.81% dip. Gasoline has been higher by 3.5% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 6% over the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

On the downside, WTI Crude (6.3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is the only market currently in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (6.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Natural Gas (53.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (66.3 percent)
Gasoline (44.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (40.9 percent)
Heating Oil (68.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (44.7 percent)

Gasoline tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gasoline (13.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Heating Oil (0.9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-16.1 percent), Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) and the Bloomberg Index (-9.8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-16.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-27.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-3.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-5.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.8 percent)
Gasoline (13.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.7 percent)
Heating Oil (0.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-6.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-9.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-10.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 98,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	41.8	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	47.7	2.5
– Net Position:	98,709	-114,749	16,040
– Gross Longs:	278,276	820,579	64,779
– Gross Shorts:	179,567	935,328	48,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	95.5	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	19.9	-26.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	43.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	32.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-24,699	23,024	1,675
– Gross Longs:	40,627	88,732	8,347
– Gross Shorts:	65,326	65,708	6,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	54.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	3.5	3.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	31.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	25.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-110,944	104,419	6,525
– Gross Longs:	283,441	520,328	52,273
– Gross Shorts:	394,385	415,909	45,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	54.8	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	22.3	-29.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	49.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	64.3	4.3
– Net Position:	43,659	-54,863	11,204
– Gross Longs:	86,260	183,418	27,051
– Gross Shorts:	42,601	238,281	15,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	49.3	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-17.7	31.1

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	44.5	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	56.1	7.4
– Net Position:	18,983	-45,749	26,766
– Gross Longs:	56,751	176,526	56,062
– Gross Shorts:	37,768	222,275	29,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	23.0	94.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-8.2	22.2

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	73.2	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	67.1	3.7
– Net Position:	-13,749	13,449	300
– Gross Longs:	33,754	162,851	8,485
– Gross Shorts:	47,503	149,402	8,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	54.8	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	9.5	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

21 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by Sugar & Corn

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall decisively higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (33,266 contracts) with Corn (18,075 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,621 contracts), Soybeans (12,864 contracts), Wheat (9,980 contracts), Cotton (8,685 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,351 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,514 contracts), Coffee (1,659 contracts) and Cocoa (1,391 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets was Live Cattle with a drop by -4,952 contracts on the week.

Live Cattle leads Softs Price Changes this week

Soft commodities market changes this week were overall lower. Live Cattle was the price change leader over the past 5 days with a gain of 1.05%. Live Cattle is up by almost 2% over the last 30 days and is higher by 12.43% over the past 90 days.

Wheat comes in second with a 0.36% gain on the week. However, Wheat has been down by -2.89% over the past 30 days and lower by -4.21% over the past 90 days. Next up, Cocoa was minimally higher by 0.25% on the week. Cocoa has been cruising higher by 20% over the past 30 days and is up by 21.46% over the past 90 days.

Cotton was down by -0.43% this week followed by Corn which was lower by -1.01% while Soybeans fell by -1.48% and Soybean Meal was down by -1.99%. Sugar dipped by -2.17% this week followed by Lean Hogs which saw a decline by -2.19% and Soybean Oil dropped by -3.09%.

Coffee came in as the biggest loser on the week with a -7.03% decline. However, Coffee has been higher by 26.89% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 5% over the past 90 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (99 percent) and Live Cattle (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (68 percent), Coffee (65 percent) and Soybeans (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (8 percent), Cotton (12 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and the Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.8 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (64.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (63.2 percent)
Soybeans (55.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (16.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.3 percent)
Live Cattle (78.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (96.5 percent)
Cotton (11.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.6 percent)
Cocoa (18.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.0 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.1 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (17 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (14 percent), Coffee (11 percent) and Corn (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-7 percent), Live Cattle (-5 percent) and Cotton (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.8 percent)
Sugar (-7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.4 percent)
Soybeans (15.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-15.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-29.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.1 percent)
Cotton (-4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.9 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.0 percent)
Wheat (5.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	44.4	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	40.0	10.4
– Net Position:	-36,169	68,373	-32,204
– Gross Longs:	346,750	679,858	126,706
– Gross Shorts:	382,919	611,485	158,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	67.5	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-12.1	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -106,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 33,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	56.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	43.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-106,344	112,398	-6,054
– Gross Longs:	175,246	514,370	75,162
– Gross Shorts:	281,590	401,972	81,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	94.2	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	4.8	9.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	37.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	62.1	3.5
– Net Position:	40,176	-43,585	3,409
– Gross Longs:	63,063	65,689	9,579
– Gross Shorts:	22,887	109,274	6,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	35.4	75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-13.1	48.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	56.6	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	57.5	7.4
– Net Position:	21,187	-8,293	-12,894
– Gross Longs:	167,351	507,053	53,482
– Gross Shorts:	146,164	515,346	66,376
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	41.8	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-17.1	7.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	45.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	54.2	4.4
– Net Position:	47,501	-55,005	7,504
– Gross Longs:	133,827	292,585	35,467
– Gross Shorts:	86,326	347,590	27,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	33.6	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	15.8	-17.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	51.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	46.5	5.3
– Net Position:	-44,608	29,001	15,607
– Gross Longs:	118,194	317,392	48,569
– Gross Shorts:	162,802	288,391	32,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	86.5	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-13.4	-11.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 101,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	30.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	51.8	13.3
– Net Position:	101,726	-83,348	-18,378
– Gross Longs:	180,326	118,626	33,510
– Gross Shorts:	78,600	201,974	51,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.8	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.5	14.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 95,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	25.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	48.4	7.7
– Net Position:	95,098	-88,856	-6,242
– Gross Longs:	184,169	96,648	23,341
– Gross Shorts:	89,071	185,504	29,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.1	0.3	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-16.6	-8.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	49.9	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	33.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-42,649	42,601	48
– Gross Longs:	70,118	129,115	12,948
– Gross Shorts:	112,767	86,514	12,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	89.1	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	3.0	14.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	47.0	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	58.6	8.2
– Net Position:	8,337	-11,290	2,953
– Gross Longs:	24,775	45,550	10,941
– Gross Shorts:	16,438	56,840	7,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	82.4	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.1	-3.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -72,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,139 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	36.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	20.6	6.9
– Net Position:	-72,159	73,100	-941
– Gross Longs:	127,443	167,332	30,903
– Gross Shorts:	199,602	94,232	31,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	64.4	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-7.0	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

19 Sep

Wall Street indices close at record highs. Norges Bank cuts key rate

By JustMarkets

By the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.27%. The S&P500 Index (US500) gained 0.48%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology Index closed higher by 0.94%. All three major Wall Street indices closed at record highs on Thursday. Investors welcomed the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut and the prospect of two additional reductions, interpreting the move as a shift toward supporting growth rather than strictly controlling inflation. Technology stocks led the rally, with Intel shares soaring more than 22% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in a joint chip development, and Nvidia shares gained 3.5%. Economically, initial jobless claims fell sharply to 231,000 from a four-year high, easing some concerns about labor market weakness.

The Mexican peso fell to 18.35 per US dollar, retreating from its strongest level since July 2024 at 18.29. In Mexico, headline inflation in August was 3.57% and core inflation was around 4.23%, which is relatively subdued but still keeps Banxico cautious, limiting aggressive rate cuts. Meanwhile, growth forecasts have softened, industrial production has shown a contraction, and the outlook for private spending has cooled, which reduces demand for peso-denominated assets.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.35%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed up 0.87%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.32%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively on Thursday at 0.21%. The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4%, with two members voting for a 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%. The MPC also voted 7-2 to slow quantitative tightening, reducing gold holdings by £70 billion over the next year to £488 billion. Policymakers noted progress in disinflation after past shocks, supported by a restrictive policy, although inflation remains above the target. The CPI was 3.8% in August, and is expected to rise slightly in September before returning to the 2% level. Looking ahead, the committee emphasized the need for a gradual, data-driven approach without a predetermined path for rate cuts, maintaining flexibility to respond to future developments.

In September 2025, Norges Bank reduced its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated that it would continue to lower rates next year if the economy develops as anticipated. This was the second rate cut in the last five years, following a brief pause in August. The bank’s committee noted that the current policy is restrictive, helping to cool the economy and reduce inflation.

US natural gas prices fell by more than 3% to below $2.99/MMBtu after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected increase in storage inventories. In the week leading up to September 12, companies injected 90 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, exceeding forecasts of 81 billion cubic feet, compared to 56 billion cubic feet a year earlier and a five-year average of 74 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets were mostly lower yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.15%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.44%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.83% yesterday.

In September 2025, the Bank of Japan left its key short-term rate unchanged at 0.5%, keeping borrowing costs at their highest level since 2008 and meeting market expectations. The decision, made by a 7-2 vote, came amid uncertainty about Japan’s political outlook and the impact of US tariffs. It followed the US Fed’s rate cut earlier this week: the first since December. During Friday’s meeting, the Bank of Japan announced that it would begin selling its holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs). The board noted that the Japanese economy has recovered at a moderate pace despite some weaknesses. Private consumption remained robust due to improved employment and income conditions. Inflation expectations rose moderately, with the core CPI projected to increase gradually.

The New Zealand dollar fluctuated around $0.598 on Friday after falling more than 1% in the previous session to a nearly two-week low. The drop was fueled by a sharper-than-expected economic downturn, which increased bets on further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank. GDP fell by 0.9% in the June quarter, which was worse than the forecasted 0.3% decline. This followed a revised growth of 0.9% in the previous quarter. The contraction was primarily due to weakness in the construction and manufacturing sectors, as well as a decline in exports. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with the probability of a more significant 50-basis-point reduction estimated at around 25%. They also anticipate an additional 71 basis points of easing, up from 50 basis points previously. Additionally, data released today indicated that New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed to NZ$1.2 billion in August, compared to NZ$2.3 billion in the same month last year. However, it still exceeded market expectations of NZ$0.7 billion.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,631.96 +31.61 (+0.48%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,142.42 +124.10 (+0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 23,674.53 +315.35 (+1.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,228.11 +19.74 (+0.21%)

USD index 97.38 +0.51 (+0.52%)

News feed for: 2025.09.19

New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

19 Sep

EUR/USD Corrects Lower in Post-Fed Pause

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair extended its decline on Friday, retreating further following the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The US dollar found support as the Fed’s rhetoric proved less dovish than markets had anticipated.

While the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points and signalled two additional cuts in 2025, it projected only one further reduction in 2026, tempering expectations for more aggressive easing. Chair Jerome Powell described the decision as a “risk management” response to a softening labour market, emphasising that the Fed saw “no need to rush” into further moves.

The dollar drew additional strength from initial jobless claims data, which fell to 231,000 – below forecasts of 241,000 and well under the previous week’s revised figure of 264,000.

Earlier in the week, eurozone inflation held steady at 2.0% year-on-year in August, unchanged from July and slightly better than the 2.1% forecast.

Despite this week’s pullback, the broader trend for EUR/USD remains bullish.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range around 1.1800 USD before breaking downward. The pair is now extending its decline towards 1.1680 USD. Once this target is reached, a corrective rebound towards 1.1800 USD may follow. The MACD indicator supports this view: its signal line remains above zero but is trending firmly lower, reflecting building near-term selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed a downward move to 1.1777 USD and a corrective bounce to 1.1845 USD. The market is now forming a new downward structure towards 1.1720 USD, with further downside potential to 1.1680 USD. A brief correction towards 1.1800 USD is possible before any renewed decline towards 1.1630 USD, and eventually 1.1550 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms the near-term bearish momentum, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downward towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is undergoing a technical correction after the Fed tempered expectations for aggressive easing. While the dollar has found near-term support, the euro’s underlying fundamentals remain steady, with inflation under control and growth concerns limited. The pair’s broader uptrend is likely to resume once the current corrective phase concludes, though a deeper retracement cannot be ruled out if US data continues to surprise to the upside. Traders will be watching next week’s eurozone PMI and US PCE data for fresh directional catalysts.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 Sep

The US Fed and the Bank of Canada have cut interest rates as expected

By JustMarkets

By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.57%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.10%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed lower by 0.33%. US stocks closed mixed as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s outlook following an expected 25-basis-point rate cut. The median FOMC prognosis suggests two more rate cuts this year, but strong growth, a low unemployment rate, and an upward revision of core inflation have raised doubts about the pace of easing in 2026. Chairman Powell also showed caution, refraining from expressing confidence in further rate cuts. The Fed expects to cut rates by another 50 basis points by the end of 2025 and by a quarter-point in 2026, which is slightly more than anticipated in June. GDP growth expectations were revised upward for 2025 (1.6% vs 1.4% in the Jun prognosis), 2026 (1.8% vs 1.6%), and 2027 (1.9% vs 1.8%). PCE inflation this year is projected at 3%, the same as in June, but expectations for 2026 were revised upward (2.6% vs 2.4%). The core PCE inflation expectations also remained at 3.1% for 2025 but were revised upward for 2026 to 2.6% from 2.4%. The unemployment rate is still expected to be 4.5% for 2025, but the projections for next year were revised downward to 4.4% from 4.5%. Meanwhile, technology stocks were under pressure, with shares of Avidia and Broadcom falling by 2.5% and 3.5% amid reports of Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chip purchases.

The Canadian dollar fell to 1.375 per US dollar after the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% and signaled that the easing campaign would continue. The move reflected a sharper-than-expected slowdown in activity, including a 1.6% contraction in Q2 GDP and a 27% drop in exports. The deteriorating labor market situation strengthened the case for policy easing: in August, net job losses and the unemployment rate rose to 7.1%, which reduced wage pressures and took the edge off inflation.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.40%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 0.24%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively at 0.14%. The Eurozone’s consumer price inflation for August 2025 was revised downward to 2.0% from a preliminary 2.1%, which is in line with the ECB’s target. Top gainers included Continental (+1.9%), Adidas (+1.7%), Bayer (+1.6%), and Infineon Technologies (+1.3%). In contrast, Commerzbank and Siemens Energy suffered the biggest losses, falling by 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $64 per barrel on Wednesday. European officials reported plans to accelerate the reduction of Russian fossil fuel imports and called for more decisive measures to increase economic pressure on Moscow. Additionally, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 9.3 million barrels last week, the largest drop in three months.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.25%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.63%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.78%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.67%.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, following the US Fed, lowered borrowing costs to 4.5%, the lowest since November 2022. Chief Executive Eddie Yue stated that the move should support the real estate market and the broader economy.

The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% at its September 2025 policy meeting. Since last September, the Central Bank has lowered rates by 150 basis points, bringing the key rate to its lowest level since October 2022. Recent data showed that in Q2, GDP grew by 5.12% y/y, the fastest pace in two years, and annual inflation in August fell to 2.31%. Earlier this week, the government unveiled a stimulus package worth around $1 billion for Q4 to accelerate GDP growth.

The Australian dollar traded around $0.665 on Thursday. Data showed that net employment in August fell by 5,400 against projections of a 21,500 increase, driven by a sharp reduction of 40,900 full-time jobs. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. Despite the weak data, markets imply only a 20% chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its September 30 meeting, with expectations for November rising to 70% as inflation remains above target and policymakers show caution.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.592 after weaker-than-expected GDP data spurred bets on interest rate cuts. New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.9%, worse than the expected contraction of 0.3%. Markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut to 2.75% at the Reserve Bank’s October meeting, with a 24% chance of a more significant half-percent cut.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,600.35 −6.41 (−0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,018.32 +260.42 (+0.57%)

DAX (DE40) 23,359.18 +29.94 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,208.37 +12.71 (+0.14%)

USD Index 96.98 +0.35 (+0.36%)

News feed for: 2025.09.18

New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
Norwegian Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

18 Sep

GBP Holds Near Highs as Market Awaits BoE Decision

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair stabilised around 1.3626 USD on Thursday, following a highly volatile session on Wednesday. The pair remains close to its highest level in over ten weeks, as markets await the Bank of England’s policy decision later today.

The BoE is widely expected to maintain rates at 5.25% (note: corrected from 4% based on current BoE rate) and may signal a reduction in its £100 billion annual bond-purchase program.

Recent data showed UK inflation held steady at 3.8% in August, matching both forecasts and July’s 18-month high. Labour market figures were broadly in line with expectations: unemployment remained at 4.7%, wage growth (ex-bonuses) came in at 4.8% (4.7% including bonuses), and payrolls declined by 8,000.

Market expectations for a BoE rate cut remain subdued, with only a one-in-three chance priced in for a reduction by December.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut yesterday, with traders now expecting at least two additional cuts by the end of 2025.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD completed an upward move to 1.3723 USD, followed by a downward impulse to 1.3620 USD. The pair is now likely to form a consolidation range around this level. A break below 1.3620 USD could initiate a decline towards 1.3528 USD. A corrective rebound towards 1.3620 USD may then follow. Renewed selling pressure could subsequently drive the pair towards 1.3500 USD, with further downside potential to 1.3277 USD. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned above zero but turning decisively downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed a downward impulse to 1.3620 USD. A consolidation phase is expected around this level. A break lower would likely trigger the first wave of a new downtrend towards 1.3530 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this near-term bearish view, as its signal line lies below 50 and is trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound is trading near multi-week highs as markets await guidance from the BoE. While UK inflation remains elevated, softening labour data and a dovish Fed have limited the GBP’s upside. Technically, the pair appears vulnerable to a near-term correction, particularly if the BoE maintains a cautious tone. Today’s decision and accompanying communications will be critical in determining whether cable extends its rally or enters a deeper corrective phase.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Sep

Canadian dollar declines after inflation data. Investors take profits ahead of the Fed meeting

By JustMarkets

By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.27%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.13%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed down 0.07%. US stocks edged lower on Tuesday as investors took profits ahead of the highly anticipated September Federal Reserve meeting. Traders widely expect the Fed to cut the rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, which would be the first cut since December. Meanwhile, positive retail sales data for August signaled resilient consumer spending despite stagnant inflation and a softening labor market. Investors were also watching developments between the US and China. Progress on trade and a new TikTok framework boosted sentiment and contributed to a rise in Oracle shares.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.38 per US dollar in September, reaching monthly highs after domestic data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada would take a cautious approach to rate cuts. The core Consumer Price Index in August rose by 1.9% year-on-year – below the consensus of 2.0%. However, key metrics, specifically the average and median values, remain near 3.0%, indicating persistent underlying inflation after excluding volatile goods. These readings, along with signs of economic resilience, suggest that the Bank of Canada may keep policy restrictive for longer and decrease the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle; markets now expect only a modest 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.00%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 1.51%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negatively on Tuesday at 0.88%. On Tuesday, European stocks closed sharply lower, pressured by aggressive losses in the financial sector. Traders were cautious ahead of key monetary policy decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England this week, as well as trade talks between China and the US, while US President Trump begins his visit to the UK today. On the data front, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany surprisingly rose, while UK employment data continued to signal a slowdown in the labor market.

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 1.5% on Tuesday to $64.5 per barrel, continuing to climb on risks related to Russian supply. Ukraine launched another strike on oil refineries as part of a broader campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including the Primorsk export hub. Goldman Sachs estimates that recent attacks have taken about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity offline in August and early September. Reuters also reported that pipeline operators are restricting oil storage for producers, which is exacerbating the problem. Meanwhile, the EU is considering new sanctions, including against firms in India and China that facilitate Moscow’s oil trade.

The US natural gas prices rose to $3/MMBtu, the highest level in a week, amid falling production. The average output in September was 107.4 billion cubic feet per day, down from August’s record high of 108.3. However, inventory growth was limited by weak demand prognoses, ample storage capacity, and stagnant LNG exports. Gas inventories are about 6% above the seasonal average, and injections are expected to continue.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.50%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.28%.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.597, ending a two-day rally as traders showed caution ahead of Thursday’s GDP data release. The economy is expected to have contracted by 0.3% in the June quarter, which would reinforce the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish outlook. Markets now expect a 25 basis point rate cut at the October meeting, with rates expected to fall to 2.50% by early 2026.

The People’s Bank of China has released a draft rule aimed at easing restrictions on gold imports, proposing to expand the use of “reusable permits,” extend their validity from six to nine months, remove restrictions on use, and allow more ports to clear bullion. These measures also apply to exports, though permits are still rarely issued due to strict capital controls and the People’s Bank of China’s drive to build reserves. The move comes as China continues to buy gold for the ninth consecutive month, increasing its reserves to approximately 73.96 million troy ounces in August 2025.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,606.76 −8.52 (−0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,757.90 −125.55 (−0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 23,329.24 −419.62 (−1.77%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,195.66 −81.37 (−0.88%)

USD Index 96.65 −0.65 (−0.67%)

News feed for: 2025.09.17

Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Sep

EUR/USD Hits Four-Year High: All Eyes on the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair surged to 1.1854 USD on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since September 2021. Investors are positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision, due later today.

Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, with 67 basis points of cumulative easing expected by year-end. These expectations are reinforced by recent labour market softening, despite inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.

Significant attention will also be focused on the updated quarterly dot plot, which may offer critical insights into the future path of monetary policy.

The trading session is expected to be highly volatile.

On the data front, US retail sales rose in August for the third consecutive month, underscoring the resilience of consumer spending over the summer.

Broad-based USD weakness has driven the dollar lower against nearly all major currencies.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range around 1.1762 USD before breaking upward to complete an impulsive move to 1.1877 USD. The pair now appears poised for a corrective decline towards 1.1762 USD. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator: although the signal line remains above zero, it has reached overextended levels. This suggests that a near-term pullback is likely.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed its ascent to 1.1877 USD and is now forming a consolidation range below this level. A downward breakout is expected, with an initial decline towards 1.1762 USD likely. A brief rebound towards 1.1820 USD may follow. Selling pressure could then resume, with targets at 1.1630 USD and potentially 1.1550 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish near-term bias, with its signal line positioned below 50 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The euro’s rally to multi-year highs reflects broad USD weakness and elevated expectations for Fed easing. However, technical indicators suggest the pair is overextended and due for a correction. Today’s Fed decision – particularly the tone of the statement and updated dot plot – will be crucial in determining whether this pullback deepens or becomes a buying opportunity. Traders should prepare for significant volatility following the release.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Sep

USD/JPY Declines: Yen Gains Safe-Haven Appeal

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with the Japanese yen strengthening to around 147.19 JPY per US dollar. The move reflects broad-based USD weakness and growing expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed this week, with a total of 67 basis points’ easing anticipated through the remainder of the year. These expectations are reinforced by recent data pointing to a cooling labour market and moderating inflation.

The Bank of Japan is also set to meet this week and is widely expected to hold rates steady at 0.5%. Meanwhile, policymakers will need to evaluate the potential impact of US tariff policies on Japan’s export-dependent economy.

Upcoming economic releases are likely to show continued softness: both exports and imports are forecast to remain weak, while core CPI is expected to slow to 2.7% – the lowest level since November 2024.

Amid elevated global volatility, the yen is demonstrating relative strength, underscoring its role as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to trade within a consolidation range centred around 147.33 JPY, with recent extensions towards 148.14 JPY on the upside and 146.90 JPY on the downside. A further decline towards 146.30 JPY is possible. Should this level be reached, a corrective bounce towards 147.33 JPY may occur before another leg down towards 145.30 JPY. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is following a clear downward move structure towards 146.76 JPY. The market has broken below its recent consolidation range, confirming the bearish momentum. Further declines towards 146.76 JPY are expected, with an extension towards 144.44 JPY likely. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line remains below 50 and is trending downward towards 20, reflecting strengthening selling pressure.

Conclusion

The yen is strengthening amid broad USD softness and safe-haven demand, with all eyes on this week’s Fed and BoJ meetings. While the BoJ is likely to remain on hold, the Fed’s dovish shift could further weigh on USD/JPY in the near term. Technically, the pair exhibits clear bearish momentum, with key support levels in focus. A break below 146.30 JPY may accelerate the decline towards deeper supports.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.