Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 44

US, European, and Asian markets show mixed results amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty

On Friday, the US stocks closed with mixed results as investors analyzed economic data, corporate news, and geopolitical developments. The Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.08% on Friday, bringing its weekly gain to 1.72%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.29% (+0.94% for the week), and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) fell by 0.51% (+0.35% for the week). Retail sales for July grew by 0.5%, meeting expectations, but the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 58.6 from 61.7, as inflation concerns rose. Markets also remained cautious ahead of President Trump’s meeting with President Putin, with his plan to impose new tariffs on steel and semiconductors adding to trade uncertainty.

Bitcoin fell to around $115,000 as profit-taking and waning expectations for US rate cuts weighed on sentiment. Higher-than-expected US producer inflation and retail sales data reduced the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing, pressuring risk assets. Further headwinds included statements from the US Treasury on strategic reserves, which heightened concerns about liquidity tightening, and a change in leadership at key financial market bodies, which increased policy uncertainty and risk aversion.

European stock markets traded without a clear direction on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.08% (+0.63% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.67% (+2.05% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.47% (+4.72% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) fell by 0.42% (+0.47% for the week). In Europe, investors focused on a key meeting in Washington between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, aimed at advancing a peace agreement with Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte were also expected to attend. Trump stated that following Friday’s talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he would press Zelenskyy for a swift resolution. While these discussions did not lead to a ceasefire breakthrough, Putin agreed to the US and Europe providing reliable security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a potential deal.

On Monday, WTI crude oil prices rose to $63 per barrel after an early-session drop, as markets focused on the Washington meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy aimed at advancing a peace agreement with Russia. Trump stated he would pressure Zelenskyy to accept a fast resolution after his Friday talks with President Putin, which centered on Moscow’s demand for Ukraine to cede territory. Trump also said he would not urgently impose sanctions on Russia and countries buying its oil, softening his stance from their earlier summit in Alaska. Oil prices have fallen more than 10% this month, also pressured by concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs and rising OPEC+ supply.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 5.07%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.94%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.30%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive return of 1.38%.

In its quarterly report, the People’s Bank of China confirmed its commitment to “carefully” implement a “moderately loose” monetary policy, with an emphasis on targeted support for the economy. This pledge came amid signs of slowing momentum in July, as domestic efforts to curb overcapacity and higher US tariffs weighed on growth.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.651 on Monday, as domestic economic data saw a relatively quiet week. Investor focus now shifts to this week’s scheduled releases of the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, Consumer Inflation Expectations, flash PMI, and speeches from RBA officials. In terms of monetary policy, investors are increasingly anticipating further RBA easing before the year’s end. While no immediate policy changes are expected, traders are currently pricing in the possibility of an additional 50 basis point rate cut by November.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,449.80 −18.74 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,946.12 +34.86 (+0.08%)

DAX (DE40) 24,359.30 −18.20 (−0.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,138.90 −38.34 (−0.42%)

USD Index 97.78 −0.07 (−0.07%)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

17 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (7,525 contracts) with Platinum (1,126 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-7,565 contracts), Silver (-6,390 contracts), Palladium (-1,161 contracts) and with Steel (-626 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Weekly Metals Performance

The metals markets on the week were mostly lower as 4 out of the 6 markets saw declining prices. Platinum led the week with a 0.58% increase, while Copper rose by 0.54%. Palladium was lower by -0.5%, Silver was down by -1.09% and Gold was down by -1.80%. Steel was the biggest loser on the week with a -3.33% decrease.

In the longer term, over the last 90 days, all these markets are higher, with Copper seeing just a 4.65% rise and is the smallest gainer over 90 days. Palladium, Silver, and Steel are all up by over 20% in the last 90 days, while Gold is up by 12.32%. Platinum is the biggest mover over the last 90 days with a gain of 42.67%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (78 percent) and Silver (71 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.2 percent)
Silver (71.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.3 percent)
Copper (59.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.5 percent)
Platinum (58.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.4 percent)
Palladium (78.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.9 percent)
Steel (59.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.0 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (10 percent) and Palladium (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-11 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.0 percent)
Silver (-23.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.4 percent)
Copper (-5.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.1 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.2 percent)
Palladium (7.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.3 percent)
Steel (-8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 229,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 237,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.6	14.2	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	73.2	4.5
– Net Position:	229,485	-263,065	33,580
– Gross Longs:	288,115	63,427	53,656
– Gross Shorts:	58,630	326,492	20,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	27.6	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-9.7	-1.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 44,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	26.4	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	68.9	6.7
– Net Position:	44,268	-66,421	22,153
– Gross Longs:	66,252	41,331	32,647
– Gross Shorts:	21,984	107,752	10,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	21.5	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	19.9	4.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	33.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	52.6	4.7
– Net Position:	28,211	-38,033	9,822
– Gross Longs:	58,802	63,855	19,016
– Gross Shorts:	30,591	101,888	9,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	37.7	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	-0.6	37.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.1	19.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	47.2	5.4
– Net Position:	17,788	-23,015	5,227
– Gross Longs:	47,458	15,571	9,606
– Gross Shorts:	29,670	38,586	4,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.0	41.3	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	11.5	-3.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,335 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	34.1	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	26.4	5.5
– Net Position:	-3,496	1,558	1,938
– Gross Longs:	8,005	6,891	3,049
– Gross Shorts:	11,501	5,333	1,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	9.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-10.2	14.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	77.3	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	75.0	1.0
– Net Position:	-718	501	217
– Gross Longs:	4,023	17,306	444
– Gross Shorts:	4,741	16,805	227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	40.3	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	8.9	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

17 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (158,614 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (49,646 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19,235 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (17,611 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-54,074 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-29,492 contracts), the Fed Funds (-6,397 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-3,468 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-699 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bond market prices this week

The major US bond market prices this week were pretty subdued, with the 3-month secured overnight financing rate (3-M SOFR) leading the way for the last 5 days with a 0.64% increase.

The 2-year bond (0.06%) and the 5-year bond (0.03%) were virtually unchanged, while the fed funds (-0.02%) and the 10-year note (-0.16%) were also virtually unchanged to the downside. The 1-month secured overnight financing rate was lower by 0.5%, while the longer treasury bonds were down by 1%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (93 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (62 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (9 percent), the Fed Funds (11 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (11.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (12.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (11.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (45.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (92.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (85.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (61.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (62.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (45.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (37.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (26 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-45 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-44.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-32.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-17.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-30.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (6.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (26.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (29.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (20.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (6.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -233,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -227,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	69.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	59.2	1.9
– Net Position:	-233,667	225,702	7,965
– Gross Longs:	260,775	1,535,528	50,810
– Gross Shorts:	494,442	1,309,826	42,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.5	83.1	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.9	44.8	-4.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -282,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 158,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -441,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	56.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	54.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-282,447	261,921	20,526
– Gross Longs:	1,818,394	6,932,254	71,213
– Gross Shorts:	2,100,841	6,670,333	50,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	53.1	88.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-20.1	-6.8

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	67.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	65.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-28,652	26,840	1,812
– Gross Longs:	187,765	910,687	4,165
– Gross Shorts:	216,417	883,847	2,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	38.1	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.1	-25.2	-6.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,379,597 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -54,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,325,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	80.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	52.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,379,597	1,253,871	125,726
– Gross Longs:	519,409	3,638,973	262,521
– Gross Shorts:	1,899,006	2,385,102	136,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	92.2	69.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	10.0	-1.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,566,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -29,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,536,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	83.7	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	51.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-2,566,369	2,352,918	213,451
– Gross Longs:	492,867	6,055,630	468,638
– Gross Shorts:	3,059,236	3,702,712	255,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	4.6	1.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -942,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -959,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	76.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	61.9	6.0
– Net Position:	-942,223	793,295	148,928
– Gross Longs:	544,434	4,100,111	470,827
– Gross Shorts:	1,486,657	3,306,816	321,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	72.3	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	13.8	20.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -360,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -359,622 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	77.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	61.2	11.4
– Net Position:	-360,321	402,305	-41,984
– Gross Longs:	292,485	1,908,261	239,327
– Gross Shorts:	652,806	1,505,956	281,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	81.9	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-10.5	4.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -60,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 49,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	76.7	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	79.6	7.1
– Net Position:	-60,794	-51,181	111,975
– Gross Longs:	148,973	1,372,602	239,356
– Gross Shorts:	209,767	1,423,783	127,381
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	24.1	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-14.4	5.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -209,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	81.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.6	8.6
– Net Position:	-209,132	198,287	10,845
– Gross Longs:	138,939	1,643,416	185,310
– Gross Shorts:	348,071	1,445,129	174,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	18.1	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-11.9	13.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

17 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,585 contracts) with Soybean Meal (23,298 contracts), Sugar (8,460 contracts), Cocoa (3,706 contracts) and Lean Hogs (789 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-25,206 contracts), Wheat (-10,481 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,877 contracts), Coffee (-3,056 contracts), Cotton (-2,961 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-234 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Changes:

Leading the prices this week for the soft commodity markets was Coffee, which jumped by over 10%. Coffee has now been up by 16% in the last 30 days, but over the last 90 days it is down by almost 1%.

Soybeans came in second this week with a gain of over 5%, followed by Soybean Meal, which rose by over 2.5% on the week. Cocoa was next with a gain of almost 2%, followed by Cotton with a 1.3% rise, and then Sugar, which rose by just about 1.2% on the week. Corn (0.29%) and Soybean Oil (0.14%) edged up a minuscule amount on the week.

Live cattle (-0.22%), Lean Hogs (-0.97%), and Wheat were all down on the week, with Wheat seeing the biggest downfall at -1.86%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (83 percent) and Lean Hogs (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (78 percent) and Coffee (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent), Soybean Meal (11 percent), Cotton (14 percent) and the Corn (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.5 percent)
Sugar (2.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (51.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (54.2 percent)
Soybeans (46.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.0 percent)
Live Cattle (82.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (83.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (82.5 percent)
Cotton (14.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.2 percent)
Cocoa (24.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (20.2 percent)
Wheat (23.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (32.0 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (11 percent) and Soybean Oil (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (3 percent) and Live Cattle (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-16 percent), Soybeans (-15 percent) and Cotton (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.1 percent)
Sugar (-0.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Coffee (-2.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-1.8 percent)
Soybeans (-14.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-24.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (6.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.1 percent)
Live Cattle (2.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-15.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.5 percent)
Cotton (-6.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.7 percent)
Cocoa (0.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.9 percent)
Wheat (-15.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -133,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	44.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	34.5	10.7
– Net Position:	-133,174	155,179	-22,005
– Gross Longs:	313,217	690,502	144,348
– Gross Shorts:	446,391	535,323	166,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	80.7	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.9	-3.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	52.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	45.2	7.5
– Net Position:	-68,512	64,008	4,504
– Gross Longs:	198,447	470,364	72,133
– Gross Shorts:	266,959	406,356	67,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	94.0	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-2.9	18.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	39.1	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	57.6	4.6
– Net Position:	26,202	-27,078	876
– Gross Longs:	46,593	57,194	7,616
– Gross Shorts:	20,391	84,272	6,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	51.1	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	3.7	-19.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,585 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,160 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	52.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	48.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-15,575	30,518	-14,943
– Gross Longs:	153,439	460,202	49,113
– Gross Shorts:	169,014	429,684	64,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	52.3	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	15.1	2.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 66,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	44.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	57.5	4.6
– Net Position:	66,069	-77,075	11,006
– Gross Longs:	139,219	276,377	39,003
– Gross Shorts:	73,150	353,452	27,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	22.3	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-4.0	-2.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	51.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	45.4	5.1
– Net Position:	-58,312	40,390	17,922
– Gross Longs:	111,199	342,675	51,943
– Gross Shorts:	169,511	302,285	34,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	90.8	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-7.8	-45.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 106,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	29.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	51.0	13.5
– Net Position:	106,141	-83,367	-22,774
– Gross Longs:	183,808	111,511	28,951
– Gross Shorts:	77,667	194,878	51,725
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	20.7	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	1.2	-10.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	28.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	49.0	7.4
– Net Position:	73,927	-69,042	-4,885
– Gross Longs:	153,610	98,076	20,430
– Gross Shorts:	79,683	167,118	25,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	16.4	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	15.0	13.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -38,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	46.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	30.5	5.1
– Net Position:	-38,439	39,218	-779
– Gross Longs:	68,099	113,063	11,588
– Gross Shorts:	106,538	73,845	12,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	87.2	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.7	-7.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	40.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	59.9	7.1
– Net Position:	13,749	-18,785	5,036
– Gross Longs:	27,469	39,736	11,968
– Gross Shorts:	13,720	58,521	6,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.0	74.8	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-1.3	11.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -89,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,565 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	37.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	19.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-89,046	88,024	1,022
– Gross Longs:	133,455	180,598	38,421
– Gross Shorts:	222,501	92,574	37,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	77.9	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	11.8	37.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

15 Aug

Supply Disruption Creates Opportunity for Lithium Co. as Prices Rally

Source: Streetwise Reports (8/15/25)

While the timing of the lithium market rebalancing remains under debate, demand growth fundamentals are undisputed. Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ), which,, according to analyst Heiko Ihle, is poised for near-term production, might be in the right position to capture value in the next lithium bull cycle.

The prices of lithium and lithium equities rallied early this week on unexpected news that Chinese regulators shuttered operations at the Jianxiawo lepidolite (a lithium-bearing mineral) mine due to owner noncompliance with permitting requirements.

“The current situation underscores lithium’s emergence as a truly strategic commodity in the global transition to electrification, where supply disruptions can trigger immediate and substantial market reactions across multiple industries and continents,” wrote Mark Reichman, Noble Capital Markets research analyst, in an August 11 research report.

After the news, on Monday alone, the lithium spot price rose nearly 4%, and lithium producers saw their share price increase between about 9% and 20%, reported Reichman. Spot lithium was US$10,850 per metric ton at the close of trading on Tuesday, Aug. 12, up 8.5% from US$10,008 at the end of last week.

The impact, if any, the Jianxiawo shutdown will have on the global lithium oversupply is hard to quantify, given the unknowns surrounding the duration of the closure. According to Benchmark in an Aug. 12 article, lithium prices’ gain this week primarily was due to sentiment and reflects the speculative nature of lithium trading in the Asian country.

MST Financial attributed the price movement to supply concerns amid speculation that Jianxiawo could be closed for much longer than the three months its owner, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL:ASX), announced, as long as a year, reported Stockhead on Aug. 11. CATL is China’s largest lithium battery producer. Dr. Cam Perks, Benchmark lithium product director, told Stockhead the mine is too important to the local economy, providing 30% of supply to the area’s lithium refineries, to remain closed for a significant time period.

“The fundamentals are really still very strong, and these are anchored in some very powerful, megatrends that we see developing within the global economy: the urgent drive for climate change mitigation, the once in a generational shift in the global energy system and also the rise of energy intensive technologies such as artificial intelligence,”

Jianxiawo’s annual production of lithium carbonate equivalent, about 46,000 metric tons, is equal to about 3% of the global output forecasted for this year, Australian government data show, reported Reuters on Aug. 11.

Thus, Reichman noted, “For investors, the situation presents both opportunities and uncertainties. While the immediate supply shock has benefited lithium stockholders, the underlying fundamentals of oversupply that had previously pressured prices remain largely unchanged.”

This oversupply has persisted throughout the past 18–24 months, according to an Aug. 11 Discovery Alert article. It resulted from a large amount of capacity and production expansion during the 2011-2022 bull market. New technological advances in lithium mining bolstered output at existing operations. The oversupply conditions are still in play; global lithium production capacity is estimated to still exceed demand throughout 2025 by about 100,000–150,000 tons.

“One mine suspension alone is unlikely to rebalance the market,” the Discovery Alert article read. “The market will likely require multiple quarters of coordinated production restraint before a sustainable uptrend can develop.”

In contrast, Barry Dawes, executive chairman of Martin Place Securities, wrote in an Aug. 11 note that the needed adjustment to reduce inventory levels has happened, the lithium market has bottomed, and more than half of lithium production costs are higher than the current lithium price. Underlying demand growth is strong, and with that, prices are poised to move higher. In other words, a new lithium bull market is underway.

“Lithium has been the most hated sector in the market for some time,” wrote Dawes. “The wheel turns.”

Investing News Network (INN) wrote in a July 21 article that long-term fundamentals “promise sustained demand growth into the next decade.” Now, with digitalization (data centers) and renewable energy integration (battery energy storage systems) requiring lithium in addition to electric vehicles (EVs), demand for the metal has picked up, remains strong, and is expected to rise.

According to a BloombergNEF report in June, global EV sales are predicted to reach 22 million (22M) in 2025, up 25% from last year due to lithium-ion batteries being less expensive and greater availability of more affordable EV models.

Total global demand for lithium carbonate equivalent, reported Statista, could reach about 2,500,000 metric tons by 2030, up from 292,000 metric tons in 2020.

“The fundamentals are really still very strong, and these are anchored in some very powerful, megatrends that we see developing within the global economy: the urgent drive for climate change mitigation, the once in a generational shift in the global energy system and also the rise of energy intensive technologies such as artificial intelligence,” Paul Lusty, head of battery raw materials research at Fastmarkets, said about lithium at a July conference, INN reported.

A more favorable lithium market, including higher prices of the metal, could benefit companies in the lithium mining space. Here’s a look at one U.S.-based lithium developer:

Atlas Lithium

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) is advancing its fully permitted Neves Lithium Project in Brazil. On August 4, 2025, the Company released its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), a nearly 500-page comprehensive technical report that establishes the foundation for the project’s anticipated strong financial returns. The study projects an 11-month payback period, a 145% internal rate of return, and a net present value exceeding $539 million. Additional details are available in the Company’s DFS filing with the SEC.

“With Atlas’ low-cost operations nearing first production, we believe that the company is well-positioned to generate strong long-term returns and provide valuable geopolitical diversification compared to other major lithium players, justifying its continued position as one of our Top Picks for 2025,” wrote Heiko Ihle, analyst at H.C. Wainwright & Co., in a July 14 research report.

Earlier this month, Atlas released a definitive feasibility study of Neves, Streetwise Reports reported. Study highlights were strong economics and a low capex. At an SC5.5 price of US$1,700 per ton (US$1,700/ton) and at a break-even SC5.5 price of US$735/ton, the project would yield a net present value of about US$540 million (US$540M) and an internal rate of return of 145%. Remaining capex to be paid is US$57.6M.

“The limited capex remaining, coupled with Neves’ status as a shovel-ready project, place Atlas in pole position to become the next lithium producer in Brazil’s lithium valley over the next year,” wrote Jake Sekelsky, analyst with Alliance Global Partners, in an Aug. 5 research report.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ)

	Retail: 52%
	Insiders & Management: 27%
	Strategic Investors: 11%
	Institutional: 10%

52%

27%

11%

10%

^*Share Structure as of 8/14/2025

Source: Atlas Lithium Corp.

Sekelsky expects Atlas to keep moving forward at Neves despite lithium market headwinds because of the project’s low cost structure and limited capex needed to take it to production. That said, the analyst expects lithium prices to start moving up as 2026 approaches, coinciding with Atlas’ project development ramp-up. Sekelsky also pointed out the expansion potential upside as Atlas could, down the line, increase plant capacity to 300,000 tons per year of SC5.5 from 150,000. Sekelsky has a Buy rating and a target price on Atlas, implying a potential return for investors of 235%.

H.C. Wainwright Analyst Ihle also rates Atlas Buy, and his target on the lithium developer suggests a possible 201% uplift, according to his report. In it, the analyst highlighted how close Atlas is to producing battery-grade spodumene concentrate and how it already secured agreements tied to future production, with Chengxin and Yahua, two major lithium companies, and Mitsui & Co. Ltd., a general trading company. Also, noted Ihle, subsidiary Atlas Critical Minerals, with about 54,000 hectares of property prospective for total rare earth oxides, titanium, graphite, and, potentially, uranium, strengthens Atlas Lithium’s position in Brazil’s critical minerals sector.

“This project complements the firm’s Neves project, as we expect the near-term cash flow to support Atlas’ long-term strategy of becoming a leading player in [the] global energy transition,” wrote Ihle.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Atlas Lithium, its management and insiders own about 27% of the company’s shares. Strategic partners, including Mitsui & Co., hold another roughly 11%. Institutional investors own about 10%. The rest, about 52%, is in retail.

Refinitiv reports that Atlas has 19.58M outstanding shares and 11.43M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$117.3M. Its 52-week range is US$3.54–12.48 per share.

Important Disclosures:

Atlas Lithium Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Atlas Lithium Corp.
Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Financial News Metals

15 Aug

US Administration seeks to acquire a stake in Intel. Natural Gas prices drop to a 9-month low

By JustMarkets

At the close on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.02%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.03%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed down 0.07%. Higher-than-expected wholesale inflation data dampened optimism for a significant Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The July Producer Price Index surged 0.9% month-over-month, the biggest increase in three years, and was up 3.3% year-over-year, which was significantly higher than the 0.2% expectations. Despite the inflation surprise, markets were still pricing in an 85-91% probability of a September rate cut, though expectations for a 50-basis-point change disappeared.

The Trump administration is in talks with Intel about a potential US government acquisition of a stake in the struggling chipmaker. The talks followed a meeting this week between President Donald Trump and Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, which came just days after Trump publicly demanded that Tan resign over his investments in Chinese technology companies, some of which are linked to the Chinese military. Details on the size and price of the stake are still being negotiated. A deal could provide Intel with fresh capital to support its long-term turnaround efforts, as the former chipmaking leader has lost its dominant position in recent years. On Thursday, Intel stock rose by 7.4%.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.8 per USD, near the month-low of 18.88 recorded earlier this month, amid a stronger US dollar combined with the Bank of Mexico’s recent policy easing and renewed tariff pressures. The sharp jump in US producer prices in July, the most significant in three years, reduced bets on an early Fed rate cut, which supported the dollar. Domestically, Banxico slowed its pace of easing but still cut rates by 25 basis points to 7.75% on August 7 in a split decision that acknowledged weak economic activity, currency volatility, and global trade risks. The move reduced the policy premium that had supported the peso and signaled that further small cuts could follow if disinflation continues.

European equity markets rallied strongly yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.79%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.84%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.24%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.13%. Market sentiment was supported by favorable trade news and cautious optimism about an upcoming Trump-Putin summit, where a possible resolution to the situation in Ukraine is expected to be discussed. A European Commission spokesperson said today that it had received a “new text” from the US with proposals for a joint declaration on tariffs, which is expected to follow the main political agreement. Leading the gains were Rheinmetall (+2.8%), Airbus (+2.3%), and Allianz (+2.1%). Banks also showed solid growth, with Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank adding 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

WTI crude oil prices jumped 2.1% to close at $64 per barrel on Thursday, reaching a one-week high and snapping a two-day losing streak. The rise was driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations that a US interest rate cut next month could stimulate demand. Prices rose after President Trump warned of “serious consequences” if negotiations with Russian President Putin on Ukraine fail, adding a risk premium given Russia’s status as the world’s second-largest oil producer.

The US natural gas prices fell by 1.5% to $2.79/MMBtu, their lowest level since November 2024, after the EIA reported a significant increase in storage inventories. Utilities injected 56 billion cubic feet for the week ending August 8, bringing total storage to 3.186 trillion cubic feet, which is 6.6% above the five-year average and slightly higher than the expected 53 billion cubic feet increase.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.70%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.53%. Hong Kong stocks fell by 1.3% in early trading on Friday, extending losses for a second session, as most sectors declined, led by financials, technology, and consumer stocks. Sentiment weakened after July data from China showed that industrial production and retail sales growth missed expectations, highlighting slowing economic growth amid persistent external risks, weather-related disasters, and weak domestic demand. The surveyed unemployment rate also rose to a four-month high of 5.2%. Nevertheless, the Hang Seng is on track for its second consecutive weekly gain, currently up more than 1%, helped by the extension of the 90-day US-China trade truce this week.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,468.54 +1.96 (+0.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,911.26 −11.01 (−0.02%)

DAX (DE40) 24,377.50 +191.91 (+0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,177.24 +12.01 (+0.13%)

USD Index 98.19 +0.35 (+0.36%)

News feed for: 2025.08.15

Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Aug

USD/JPY Declines as Yen Regains Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair dropped to 147.19 on Friday, clawing back losses from the previous session. The move followed stronger-than-expected GDP data and rising speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could hike interest rates.

Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3% in Q2, up from 0.1% in Q1, matching forecasts. The growth was primarily driven by net exports, which contributed 0.3 percentage points, despite pressure from US tariffs.

The yen drew further support from remarks by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested the BoJ is falling behind in tackling inflation. Market pressure is also mounting on the central bank to abandon its inflation target—currently tied to domestic demand and wage growth—which could limit its ability to tighten monetary policy.

However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious stance, emphasising that core inflation remains below the 2% target.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues its downward trajectory, eyeing 146.14—a level likely to be tested today. A rebound to 147.30 is possible before another decline towards 145.45, with further downside potential to 144.30. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a descending wave structure, targeting 146.16. A corrective bounce to 147.30 may follow before the downtrend potentially resumes towards 145.45. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this view, with its signal line below 50 and trending firmly downward.

Conclusion

The yen’s rebound reflects improving economic data and shifting BoJ rate expectations, while technical indicators suggest further downside for USD/JPY in the near term.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Aug

Bitcoin set a new all-time high. Oil prices fell to a 2-month low

By JustMarkets

By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index grew by 1.04%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.32%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up by 0.04%. On Wednesday, the US stock indices closed higher, extending recent momentum, as growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September continued to lift sentiment. The rally continued the gains from Tuesday, which were triggered by softer-than-expected inflation data that fueled bets on monetary easing, with traders fully pricing in a September rate cut and some even expecting a 50 basis point reduction. Among the gainers were AMD, which rose by 5.4%, while some mega-cap tech stocks like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft saw declines.

On Thursday, Bitcoin climbed above $123,000, setting a new record, fueled by growing institutional demand and expectations of monetary easing. An executive order issued last week opened the possibility of including digital assets in 401(k) retirement plans, signaling a more favorable regulatory stance in the US. Further boosting Bitcoin’s rise were steady inflows into spot exchange-traded funds and purchases by public companies following the example of MicroStrategy, which has transformed from a software company into a major player in the Bitcoin market. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has appreciated by approximately 28%.

European stock markets grew steadily yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was up by 0.67%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.66%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.08%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.19%. European stocks surged on Wednesday, reaching a two-week high, as prospects of US interest rate cuts and the possibility of lower energy prices supported a backdrop of stronger growth in the bloc. Banks, the luxury sector, and the technology sector were among the session’s leaders. Healthcare stocks also closed sharply higher after a change in their performance from the first half of the month: Sanofi and Bayer added 2% and 3.5%, respectively, while AstraZeneca jumped 3% outside the Eurozone Index. Conversely, oil producers declined, primarily due to a 1% drop in TotalEnergies shares following a signal from the IEA about a global surplus.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $62.6 per barrel, their lowest level in more than two months, after the International Energy Agency (IEA) expected a growing oil surplus this year and next. Inventories are expected to grow at a record pace and reach a 46-month high by June 2026, confirming similar expectations from the US government. The US oil production is projected to peak this year and then decline next year, driven by improved efficiency in existing wells. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that inventories grew slightly last week, which aligned with an industry report on Tuesday.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 2.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.41%.

In July 2025, employment in Australia grew by 24,500 to a record high of 14.64 million people, a sharp increase after a downwardly revised gain of 1,000 in the previous month, but slightly missing the market consensus of a 25,000 increase. Full-time employment rose to a record level of 10.13 million people. The employment-to-population ratio grew to 64.2%, while the participation rate remained at 67.0%. The strong labor market reduced the likelihood of further rate cuts from the RBA.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,466.58 +20.82 (+0.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,922.27 +463.66 (+1.04%)

DAX (DE40) 24,185.59 +160.81 (+0.67%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,165.23 +17.42 (+0.19%)

USD Index 97.83 −0.27 (−0.27%)

News feed for: 2025.08.14

Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Employment Change (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

13 Aug

S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach record highs. Natural gas prices fall to a one-year low

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 1.10% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up by 1.33%. Major Wall Street indices rallied on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs, after July inflation data largely met expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, easing fears of rising prices amid ongoing trade tensions. This bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Traders are pricing in an approximately 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Investor sentiment was further boosted by the largest inflow into US stocks in two years and optimism ahead of the Jackson Hole Fed meeting later this month.

European stock markets traded with mixed performance yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.23%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.71%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.02%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.20%. The ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator for Germany declined for the first time in four months to 34.7 in August 2025, down from 52.7 in July, which was its highest reading since 2022, and below expectations of 40. The significant drop in the August 2025 ZEW indicator was partly due to the poor performance of the German economy in the second quarter of 2025.

WTI oil prices fell to $63.5 a barrel on Tuesday, close to the two-month low of $62.77 reached the previous week, as President Trump extended the US-China tariff truce for 90 days and investors awaited US-Russia talks on Ukraine. Trump downplayed hopes of a breakthrough, calling the meeting a chance to “test the waters” for peace, while Ukrainian President Zelenskyy rejected any talks of ceding territory. Separately, OPEC projected a tighter oil market for 2026, citing higher demand and slowing non-OPEC production growth. Attention will turn to the monthly reports from the US Department of Energy and the IEA for market insights.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell below $2.9 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest since November 2024, pressured by near-record output, high storage levels, and expectations for milder weather. August production in the lower 48 states averaged 108.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), up from the record July output of 107.9 Bcf/d. Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, the high supply has allowed for above-average injections into storage, and stockpiles are about 6% above the seasonal norm and are expected to continue rising.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.41%.

The Australian dollar weakened to $0.652 against the US dollar on Wednesday, giving up the previous session’s gains after a dovish rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to weigh on the currency. On Tuesday, the central bank cut its official cash rate as expected and signaled that further easing may be needed to meet its inflation and employment goals amid a loss of economic momentum. It also lowered its 2025 GDP expectations to 1.7% from 2.1%, citing weak household demand at the start of the year that is unlikely to recover. Markets are now implying a slim 34% chance of another rate cut in September.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,445.76 +72.31 (+1.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,458.61 +483.52 (+1.10%)

DAX (DE40) 24,024.78 −56.56 (−0.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,147.81 +18.10 (+0.20%)

USD Index 98.07 −0.45 (−0.46%)

News feed for: 2025.08.13

Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

13 Aug

USD/JPY Gains Ground as Market Favouring Risk Appetite

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 148.00 on Wednesday, with the yen relinquishing its earlier gains as a rally in global risk assets dampened demand for the safe-haven currency.

The move followed the release of US inflation data, which bolstered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

In Japan, manufacturing sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in August, supported by a trade agreement with Washington. The US reduced tariffs on Japanese cars and other goods to 15% in exchange for a $550 billion investment package from Tokyo.

Meanwhile, producer price growth slowed to an 11-month low in July, reflecting pressure on domestic firms from higher US tariffs.

Monetary policy uncertainty persists, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers divided on the timing and pace of future rate hikes. Some officials advocate maintaining an accommodative stance, citing risks to the central bank’s economic forecasts.

Currently, capital markets show little appetite for safe-haven assets, traditionally a role filled by the yen. Doubts over the BoJ’s policy direction further undermine the currency’s appeal.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The USD/JPY pair continues its corrective wave towards 148.60. A pullback to 147.52 is expected today, after which another upswing to 148.60 may materialise. Once this wave exhausts, a decline towards 146.40 is anticipated. This scenario is technically validated by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

The pair has entered a consolidation phase around 148.00. A dip to 147.50 is likely today, potentially followed by an extension towards 148.65. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downward.

Conclusion

The USD/JPY remains buoyed by risk-on sentiment, though technical indicators suggest near-term volatility is likely. Traders will monitor BoJ policy signals and US economic data for further direction.

Disclaimer

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