InvestMacro

The GBP/USD pair advanced decisively to 1.3338, marking its highest level since late October. Sterling found support from an upward revision of the UK’s November Services PMI, while the US dollar remained under broad pressure ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

The UK Services PMI rose to 51.3 from a preliminary 50.5, remaining firmly in expansionary territory above the 50.0 threshold. The Composite PMI followed suit, climbing to 51.2.

Despite this improvement, S&P Global noted underlying softness, with business activity growth slowing and employment declining at the fastest pace since February. Furthermore, output price inflation fell to its lowest level since January 2021.

Markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Bank of England in December. However, expectations are that the central bank will then enter a prolonged pause, wary of the persistent risk of renewed inflation.

Conversely, the US dollar remains on the back foot. Markets have fully priced in a third consecutive Fed rate cut for December, with at least two additional cuts anticipated in 2026. This widening interest rate differential is enhancing the pound’s relative appeal.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD continues its confident upward trajectory, approaching a key technical resistance level at 1.3354. The price is holding well above the middle Bollinger Band, confirming the dominance of the bullish trend. The expansion of the upper band signals rising volatility and sustained buying interest.

A decisive breakout and close above 1.3354 would open the path for an extension of the rally towards the next resistance zone around 1.3363–1.3380. Should a pullback occur, the nearest significant support is situated at 1.3280. A breach of this level would suggest a deeper correction, potentially targeting the lower Bollinger Band.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, GBPUSD maintains an upward bias following a powerful impulse that pushed the price to the 1.3350–1.3360 resistance zone. The pair is now correcting, remaining above the local support of 1.3179, from which the growth began earlier. The upper Bollinger Band has turned down after a sharp expansion, indicating short-term market overheating and increasing the likelihood of a pullback. Nevertheless, the structure remains bullish: holding the price above the middle Bollinger Band supports a retest of 1.3350.

A breakout of the 1.3350–1.3360 resistance will open the way to the next target in the 1.3400 area. A consolidation below 1.3179 will be the first signal for a deeper correction, with targets in the 1.3120-1.3140 demand area.

Conclusion

GBP/USD strength is driven by a clear divergence in central bank policy expectations, favouring sterling in the near term. Technically, the pair is in a firm uptrend but is testing a critical resistance level at 1.3354. A successful breakout here could accelerate gains, while a rejection may trigger a consolidation or correction towards 1.3280. The upcoming Fed and BoE meetings will be pivotal in determining whether this momentum can be sustained.

Disclaimer:

04 Dec

The US labor market is showing signs of job losses

By JustMarkets

By Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.86%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.30%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.20% higher. Markets increased bets on Fed easing after the ADP report showed an unexpected decline of 32,000 jobs. The financial sector led strongly: Wells Fargo and Citi shares gained 3.5% each, while UnitedHealth jumped 4.7% thanks to improved expectations for costs and demand. Among tech companies, Marvell stood out, rising 7.9% on an optimistic prognosis for data centers and AI hardware, while Microsoft fell 2.5% after temporary concerns over reduced quotas for AI products.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per USD, reaching a monthly high thanks to US dollar weakness and signs of Canadian economic resilience. Stronger‑than‑expected GDP growth increased the likelihood of a pause in the Bank of Canada easing. Additional support came from rising oil and copper prices, which improved trade conditions despite weak manufacturing PMI.

Mexican peso firmed to 18.27 per USD, its highest since July, amid US dollar weakness and a resilient domestic labor market. Mexico’s low unemployment rate of 2.6% reduces the need for Banxico to ease policy quickly, supporting the attractiveness of high real interest rates.

European equities traded mixed on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.16%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.68%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.10% lower. European markets were buoyed by optimism over Fed easing after weak US labor data, despite mixed ECB signals: Lagarde noted inflation nearing target, while Lane warned of risks of acceleration. Corporate news drove gains: ASML rose by 2.6% after rating upgrades, Inditex surged 9% on strong results, and Stellantis and Airbus climbed 7.7% and 1.5% respectively.

Swiss franc held near 0.80 per USD, close to multi‑year highs ahead of the SNB meeting. Inflation in Switzerland was unexpectedly low again, with core prices falling to a four‑year low, complicating the central bank’s task. With rates already at 0%, the SNB remains cautious about easing, wary of financial stability risks, though it leaves the option open. Policymakers signaled that a return to negative rates is unlikely, but policy adjustments may be needed if the expected moderate inflation rebound fails to materialize.

WTI oil rose above $59/barrel amid geopolitical tensions: Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and lack of progress in talks with Moscow heightened supply risks. Additional uncertainty came from the US signals toward Venezuela’s oil sector. However, gains were capped by signs of weak demand and rising US crude and product inventories (EIA data), pointing to potential oversupply.

Asian equities traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.70%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.28%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.18%.

The Australian dollar climbed to 0.661 USD, a two‑month high, supported by unexpectedly strong domestic spending, which boosted expectations of another RBA rate hike in 2026. Household spending in October rose 1.3% versus 0.6% projections, reinforcing tightening prospects. At next week’s meeting, markets still expect the rate to remain at 3.6%, but the RBA’s tone may turn more hawkish amid overheating risks and persistent inflationary pressures.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,849.72 +20.35 (+0.30%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,882.90 +408.44 (+0.86%)

DAX (DE40) 23,693.71 −17.15 (−0.072%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,692.07 −9.73 (−0.10%)

USD Index 99.32 −0.10% (−0.10%)

News feed for: 2025.12.04

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – CAD (LOW)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

03 Dec

USD/JPY Declines as Market Focus Shifts to Bank of Japan Policy

The USD/JPY pair fell to 155.67 on Wednesday, recovering part of the previous session’s sharp losses. The decline was driven by renewed pressure on the US dollar, as market expectations for a deeper Federal Reserve easing cycle gained traction.

Domestically, investor attention remains firmly fixed on the likelihood of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike at its December meeting. This possibility has been underscored by recent hawkish signals from certain BoJ officials, creating a contrast with market perceptions that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government favours more accommodative monetary conditions.

This week, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama sought to downplay any perceived policy rift, stating there is no discrepancy between the government’s and the central bank’s economic assessments. This remark underscores the continued official emphasis on coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.

Her comments followed a speech by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who expressed confidence in Japan’s economic outlook and confirmed the central bank will carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of a rate increase at its December policy review.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY remains in a downward correction phase following its accelerated rally in mid-November. The pair is trading below the key resistance level of 156.76, forming a potential reversal structure near the lower Bollinger Band. Selling pressure persists, as evidenced by the market’s failure to sustain a move above the indicator’s middle band.

A decisive break below the 154.66 support level would signal a deeper correction, targeting the area of previous local lows. Conversely, a sustained recovery and close above 156.76 would provide the first technical signal of a potential recovery, opening a path for the pair to retest the 157.90–158.00 resistance zone.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is undergoing an upward correction after rebounding from support at 157.91. However, the upside appears constrained by the upper Bollinger Band. While buyers are attempting to push above the intermediate resistance at 158.40, price action remains choppy and lacks clear directional conviction.

The technical picture suggests a phase of sideways consolidation with a downside bias. Maintaining the price below 158.45 increases the likelihood of a retest of 157.91. A break below this level would strengthen the bearish scenario, targeting the lower boundary of the current range. For a confirmed bullish shift, a sustained move above 158.45, followed by a breakout towards 158.80–159.00, would be required.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is consolidating its recent decline amid a tug-of-war between a softer US dollar and evolving expectations for BoJ policy. The technical structure across both timeframes suggests a cautious, range-bound environment with a current tilt towards the downside. The immediate directional catalyst will likely be the BoJ’s December meeting, but in the near term, traders should watch for a break outside the 156.76–154.66 range on the H4 chart for a clearer signal on the pair’s next significant move.

Disclaimer:

03 Dec

Bitcoin climbs back above $93,000. Palladium rises to $1,460/oz

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.39%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.25%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.59% higher. Risk appetite supported Bitcoin’s rally, while the AI and software sector helped stabilize sentiment. Key drivers included Boeing, Nvidia, Oracle, and Intel, which posted significant gains. Investors continue to monitor macro data and the delayed PCE report ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, where markets still expect a 25 bp rate cut. Rising sovereign bond yields limited a stronger market recovery.

Bitcoin climbed back above $93,000, recovering confidently after its sharp drop below $84,000 earlier this month amid renewed risk demand. The rally was supported by expectations of a 25 bp Fed rate cut next week. Additional momentum came from rumors that Kevin Hassett may be appointed Fed Chair, reinforcing dovish sentiment, along with positive industry news: the SEC is preparing an “innovation exemption” for digital asset companies, and Vanguard announced plans to launch digital assets-focused funds.

European equities closed mostly higher on Tuesday, reflecting improved sentiment as investors assessed the trajectory of global interest rates. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.51%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.28%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.49%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.01%. The banking sector supported gains after Japanese bond stabilization, with BNP Paribas and ING up about 2%, and Santander rising on the sale of its Polish unit stake. Bayer surged more than 12%. The FTSE 100 rose 0.2% to 9,720 points, its highest in three weeks, driven by British banks after a successful stress test confirmed sector resilience.

Palladium (XPD) rose to $1,460/oz, its highest in nearly a month, supported by improved demand expectations and signs of limited supply. The launch of palladium futures in China added hedging tools and boosted interest from the world’s largest metals consumer. Medium‑term outlook points to supply deficits lasting at least until 2026.

Platinum (XPT) fell below $1,650/oz after recently hitting a six‑week high, as rising US bond yields and weak manufacturing data in the US and China triggered profit‑taking. Before the correction, platinum had rallied on expectations of recovering Chinese demand following the launch of a new physical contract on the Guangzhou exchange. Year‑to‑date, platinum has gained more than 70%, supported by supply disruptions in South Africa, safe‑haven demand, and strong Chinese buying.

WTI slipped slightly on Tuesday to around $59/barrel as the market digested mixed geopolitical and supply signals. Tensions with Venezuela escalated after Donald Trump declared its airspace “closed,” while Ukrainian strikes on OPEC+‑related facilities temporarily disrupted operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal. Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed current production levels will be maintained in Q1 2026 amid oversupply risks.
Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.16% higher.

The Australian dollar climbed to a five‑week high near $0.657 on Wednesday, despite weak GDP data. Australia’s economy grew just 0.4% QoQ, below expectations, reducing the likelihood of the RBA tightening next year. Markets are now almost certain the rate will remain at 3.6% at next week’s meeting, while Governor Bullock emphasized readiness to act if inflationary pressures return.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,829.37 +16.74 (+0.25%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,474.46 +185.13 (+0.39%)

DAX (DE40) 23,710.86 +121.42 (+0.51%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,701.80 −0.73 (−0.01%)

USD Index 99.32 −0.10% (−0.10%)

News feed for: 2025.12.03

Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); CHA50, HK50 (MED)
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

02 Dec

EUR/USD Holds Ground Amid Firm Focus on Fed Policy

The EUR/USD pair retreated to 1.1612 on Tuesday, pulling back from a recent two-week high. The catalyst for the move was a significant repricing of US interest rate expectations following weak manufacturing data. The ISM Manufacturing Index confirmed a ninth consecutive month of contraction, with the pace of decline the fastest in four months.

This data solidified market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Futures markets now imply an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at next week’s FOMC meeting.

In related news, President Donald Trump announced he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair. Media reports suggest the leading contender is Kevin Hassett, the current head of the White House National Economic Council.

Investor attention is now focused on an upcoming speech by current Chair Jerome Powell later today, which may offer further clues on the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD continues to trade within an established ascending channel. The pair is currently testing a key resistance zone at 1.1655, where buying momentum has met significant selling pressure. A decisive breakout above this level would open the path towards the next major resistance at 1.1730.

The Stochastic Oscillator is rising from the middle zone, indicating sustained bullish momentum without overbought conditions. The MACD remains above its zero line, maintaining a stable, albeit weak, buy signal. Conversely, a break and close below the key support at 1.1545 would signal a deeper correction, likely targeting the lower boundary of the current range near 1.1468.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is undergoing a correction after being rejected from local resistance at 1.1652. Buyers are currently defending the price above the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting short-term bullish control remains intact.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory (above 80) and is turning down, pointing to a near-term corrective pullback. However, the MACD remains in positive territory, supporting the broader upward bias. This technical picture suggests a brief downward pause is likely, with a potential retest of support in the 1.1600–1.1585 zone. A successful hold above this area would increase the probability of a fresh upward impulse, targeting a renewed test of 1.1652 and an eventual push towards 1.1700.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains confidently bid, supported by growing expectations of Fed easing. While a short-term technical correction is underway, the broader structure on both the H4 and H1 charts remains constructive. The key for continued upside is a successful defence of the 1.1600–1.1585 support zone. A break above 1.1655 would be a significant bullish confirmation, while a failure to hold support could trigger a deeper pullback towards 1.1545.

Disclaimer:

02 Dec

Digital assets under pressure after PBoC statements. Oil prices jump amid rising geopolitical risks

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.90%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.53%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.38% lower. Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key macro data this week, including the delayed September PCE inflation report and the upcoming FOMC decision. The tech sector saw volatility, while retail stocks showed resilience thanks to the holiday season momentum: Home Depot and Walmart posted gains. Manufacturing data pointed to further weakness: the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November 2025, the lowest in four months and below expectations of 48.6. The sector has contracted for nine consecutive months, with the pace of decline accelerating compared to September (48.7).

Selling pressure intensified on digital assets. Bitcoin fell more than 6%, dropping below $85,000 and extending the decline that began in November when it first broke under $90,000. Sentiment worsened after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) declared digital currency activities illegal. This triggered a sharp drop in digital assets company stocks on the Hong Kong exchange, while Ethereum and Solana fell more than 8% and 7% respectively, fueling a global digital assets sell‑off.

European equities mostly declined on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.04%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.32% lower, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended 0.18% lower. Airbus shares dropped 5.7% after an intraday plunge of more than 10% due to a new quality issue affecting dozens of A320 aircraft, despite most planes with prior software glitches already being modified.

On Tuesday, WTI prices traded around $59.3/barrel, stabilizing after a gain of more than 1% in the previous session. Support continued from geopolitical risks threatening global oil supplies and the latest OPEC+ production decision. Tensions between the US and Venezuela escalated after President Donald Trump threatened to treat Venezuelan airspace as closed.

The US natural gas prices kept rising amid cold weather and strong LNG exports. In early December, US natural gas futures surpassed $4.8/MMBtu, hitting a three‑year high and extending November’s 15% rally. Severe cold from December 3-7 across the Northeast and Great Lakes boosted demand, with projections pointing to below‑normal temperatures in the coming weeks. Storage withdrawals of 11 bcf in the week ending November 21 confirmed a tightening supply‑demand balance.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.67%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.44% lower. On Tuesday morning, the Hang Seng rose to 26,218, extending the prior session’s gains. Sentiment improved on expectations that weak November PMI data may prompt new stimulus measures ahead of next week’s Central Economic Work Conference. Fresh data also supported the market: Hong Kong retail sales in October posted the strongest growth since late 2023, reflecting a steady influx of tourists.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,812.63 −36.46 (−0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,289.33 −427.09 (−0.90%)

DAX (DE40) 23,589.44 −247.35 (−1.04%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,702.53 −17.98 (−0.18%)

USD Index 99.41 −0.05% (−0.05%)

News feed for: 2025.12.02

UK FPC Meeting Minutes at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)

By JustMarkets

01 Dec

Silver hits an all-time high. The US natural gas prices reach a 2-year peak

By JustMarkets

By Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.61% (weekly +4.16%), the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.54% (weekly +4.47%), and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.78% higher (weekly +5.37%). The US stocks ended November in positive territory. Risk appetite remained strong amid an 80-85% probability of a Fed rate cut in the coming weeks. Volatility increased during the day after a technical glitch at CME: a cooling system failure at the Chicago data center temporarily disrupted futures trading, causing unstable price feeds for many liquidity providers.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above 1.40 per USD, reaching a monthly high. Support came from stronger‑than‑expected Q3 GDP data, coinciding with US dollar weakness on rising Fed easing expectations.

Mexican peso firmed to 18.32 per USD, its highest since July 2024, as labor market resilience supported Banxico’s stance of maintaining tight monetary policy. October 2025 unemployment remained at 2.6% – slightly above 2.5% a year earlier, but below the expected 2.8% and the six‑month average, signaling labor market stability.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell more than 4% to $86,000, returning to April lows amid a new wave of digital assets sell‑offs. The decline was exacerbated by corporate factors: Strategy Inc. CEO Phong Le said the company may sell part of its Bitcoin holdings to finance dividend payments. A warning from Yearn’s X about a liquidity pool issue (yETH) sparked fresh concerns in DeFi. Bitcoin fell 17% in November.

European markets mostly rose on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.29% (weekly +2.39%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.29% higher (weekly +1.15%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.06% (weekly +2.57%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended 0.27% higher (weekly +1.90%). ECB minutes showed policymakers are in no rush to cut rates, given heightened economic uncertainty.

Silver (XAG/USD) price rose more than 1% above $57/oz on Monday, setting a new all‑time high. The rally was driven by supply constraints and expectations of imminent Fed easing. Inventories at warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to their lowest in nearly a decade, raising concerns about metal availability.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) climbed above $4.7/MMBtu, nearing the highest level since December 2022. Gains were supported by cold weather in key consumption regions. Winter conditions have already hit parts of the Midwest and East Coast. The European Centre model also expects significant early‑December colds in the same regions. LNG exports added further support: November shipments from US terminals averaged 18 bcf/day, surpassing the previous record.

Asian markets broadly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.04%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.09%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.60%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 1.44% over five days. Chinese stocks rose for a third straight day, nearing multi‑year highs, supported by optimism around AI development and related investments. However, further gains were capped by weak macro signals: manufacturing PMI fell for the eighth consecutive month, highlighting ongoing industrial pressure.

The New Zealand dollar traded near a monthly high, supported by hawkish signals from the RBNZ. Last week, the central bank cut the refinancing rate by 25 bp to 2.25%, its lowest since June 2022, but indicated the easing cycle is essentially over. Updated prognoses assign only a 20% probability of another cut in 2026.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,849.09 +36.48 (+0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,716.42 +289.30 (+0.61%)

DAX (DE40) 23,836.79 +68.83 (+0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,720.51 +26.58 (+0.27%)

USD Index 99.48 -0.12% (-0.12%)

News feed for: 2025.12.01

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (LOW)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

01 Dec

Gold Hits Five-Week High on Dovish Fed Bets

Gold climbed to 4,240 USD per ounce on Monday, reaching its highest level in five weeks, as expectations solidified for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Markets have priced in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point reduction at this month’s policy meeting.

The dovish shift has been reinforced by commentary from Fed officials and a string of weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data following the prolonged US government shutdown.

Investor focus now turns to manufacturing and private-sector employment data due this week, which may deliver final signals before the Fed convenes.

The precious metal has advanced nearly every month this year and is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979. Sustained demand from central bank purchases and ongoing inflows into gold-backed ETFs continue to underpin the rally, having previously propelled prices to a record high above 4,380 USD.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD continues to advance within a bullish impulse and is now testing the upper boundary of a Double Bottom reversal pattern, where buyers are meeting resistance. A decisive break above this zone would open the path for sustained gains toward 4,385 USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator supports the upward bias, with its signal lines positioned above 80 and yet to cross, indicating persistent bullish momentum. A deeper correction would require a break and close below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, particularly below 4,185 USD.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is rising after bouncing from local support at 4,215 USD. Buyers are attempting to secure a close above the key resistance level of 4,245 USD. A swift rebound and sustained trading above the EMA-65 confirm buyer dominance and signal potential for a short-term continuation higher.

The session’s technical outlook suggests the potential for a minor bearish correction, followed by a renewed push toward 4,345 USD, where the upper boundary of the bullish channel lies. The Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional positive signal, as its signal lines are rebounding from an ascending trendline, supporting the potential for further gains.

Conclusion

Gold continues to draw strength from growing expectations of Fed easing, positioning the metal for a potential test of record highs. The technical structure remains constructive, favouring further gains toward 4,385–4,345 USD on a sustained break above 4,245 USD. While a brief, shallow pullback cannot be ruled out, the broader uptrend appears intact, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained institutional demand.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Metals

26 Nov

GBP/USD Rises as Markets Await Crucial UK Budget

The GBP/USD pair extended its gains, reaching 1.3189, as investors await details of the UK budget, to be presented today, 26 November. All attention is on Chancellor Rachel Reeves and her strategy to close the fiscal deficit while adhering to the government’s self-imposed budgetary rules. This challenge requires finding tens of billions of pounds in savings or revenue. Market volatility has been stoked by reports suggesting the government may avoid immediate tax increases.

The fiscal backdrop is deteriorating. According to media reports, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is preparing to lower its growth forecasts for 2026 and beyond. This revision could widen the budget deficit by £20–30 billion, intensifying the long-term pressure for tax rises.

Recent macroeconomic data underscores the economy’s fragility. Public sector borrowing remains at record highs outside of the pandemic period, business activity is slowing, retail sales have contracted sharply, and consumer confidence is waning.

Amid this weak economic landscape, October’s inflation reading fell to 3.6%, solidifying expectations for monetary policy easing. Markets are now pricing in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Bank of England in December.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD broke decisively above 1.3116, completing a corrective wave structure to 1.3210. We now anticipate a pullback to retest the 1.3116 level from above. Following this retest, a final leg of the correction could push the pair towards 1.3215.

Once this corrective phase is complete, the primary downtrend is expected to resume. The next key target for the subsequent wave of selling is at 1.2911. The MACD indicator supports this view; its signal line is above zero and pointing upwards, confirming the current corrective strength is likely a prelude to a new downtrend.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair broke upwards from a pronounced consolidation range around 1.3123, reaching its initial target at 1.3210. A decline to retest 1.3123 is now expected. This should be followed by a final upward push to 1.3215, at which point the corrective potential is likely to be exhausted.

We then forecast the start of a fifth and typically powerful wave of decline, targeting 1.2911. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario. Its signal line is in overbought territory above 80 and is turning downwards, signalling that the current upward momentum is losing steam.

Conclusion

The pound’s strength is fragile, driven by budget speculation rather than a shift in fundamentals. The pre-budget rally is viewed as a corrective bounce within a broader bearish trend. Technically, the pair is approaching a critical resistance zone near 1.3215. We anticipate this level will cap gains and present a selling opportunity, paving the way for a resumption of the downtrend with an initial target at 1.2911. The budget details and the BoE’s subsequent December meeting will be key determinants of the pound’s medium-term direction.

Disclaimer: