InvestMacro

On Wednesday, US stock indices closed in the red amid the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. By the end of the trading session, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.61%. The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.08%, while the technology-heavy NASDAQ (US100) edged up by 0.03%. The primary trigger for the decline was new reports of tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, which sparked a surge in WTI oil prices to $87 per barrel, despite the IEA’s emergency decision to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

Published inflation data (CPI) for February aligned with analysts’ expectations, showing a 2.4% year-on-year increase. Nevertheless, the bond market reacted with rising Treasury yields as traders fear that the March spike in gasoline prices and logistical chaos will make February’s figures a “relic of the past.” The probability that the Fed will refrain from rate cuts throughout 2026 has risen to 19.3%, with the first potential policy easing now shifted to September.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) showed strong appreciation, rising above the 1.36 mark against the US dollar. The main growth driver was the sustained high cost of WTI crude, which consolidated above $87 per barrel during trading, highlighting Canada’s status as the most stable and secure energy supplier for the North American region. The “loonie” received additional support from the contrast between US and Canadian macroeconomic data. While the US labor market showed signs of cooling (an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs leading to a drop in the Dollar Index), the Canadian economy appears more resilient. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in early 2026, a 16-month low.

European stock markets turned sharply downward, almost entirely erasing the optimism of the previous session. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.37%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.19%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.53%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.56% lower yesterday. The primary pressure factor was the growing positive correlation between stocks and government bonds: investors sold off both asset classes amid fears that the energy shock would lead to a prolonged period of high inflation, forcing the ECB to hike rates.

The Swiss franc (CHF) traded around 0.78 against the US dollar on Wednesday, continuing to hold near record highs. Its “safe-haven” status ensured a powerful capital inflow for the franc amid the twelfth day of active hostilities in Iran and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are ignoring risky assets in favor of the Swiss currency, viewing it as protection against global uncertainty. However, for the Swiss economy itself, such strength in the national currency is becoming a serious challenge. In response, the SNB moved from words to action: sight deposit data indicate that the regulator has already begun conducting foreign exchange interventions, buying foreign currency to weaken the franc.

On Thursday, the oil market entered a phase of extreme volatility: WTI futures jumped to $95 per barrel, gaining more than 8% in a single session. This rapid rise occurred against the backdrop of dramatic news from Iraq, where authorities were forced to completely suspend operations at oil terminals. The cause was attacks on two tankers in Iraqi territorial waters – the vessels were struck by explosive-laden drone boats and caught fire. This incident clearly confirmed that the risk zone in the Persian Gulf has expanded far beyond the Strait of Hormuz, encompassing the region’s key export hubs. The market’s reaction to the IEA’s decision to release 400 million barrels proved short-lived. Investors quickly concluded that even such massive interventions are merely a “temporary bandage” against the backdrop of a full blockade of the strait and production cuts by leading regional producers who no longer have storage space for oil that cannot be exported. The situation is exacerbated by Iran’s hawkish rhetoric: the republic’s military command openly warned the world of the prospect of $200 per barrel oil if the US and Israel do not cease their strikes.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.43% during the session, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.98%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.24%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.59% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, a wave of sell-offs swept the Australian stock market: the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell by 1.3%, breaking a two-day recovery period. Investors were spooked by the new round of rising oil prices, which, combined with hawkish rhetoric from RBA officials, made an interest rate hike next week almost inevitable. As a result, the market instantly repriced the odds of a March 17 rate hike: the probability is now estimated at 75% (up from 30% at the start of the week). The country’s largest banks, including CBA, Westpac, and ANZ, simultaneously revised their predictions, expecting rate hikes in March and May to a peak level of 4.35%.

On Tuesday, the US stock market concluded the session with a slight decline. The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.07%, and the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.21%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) managed a marginal gain of 0.01%. Investors found themselves in a state of uncertainty: the initial optimism sparked by President Trump’s claims of a swift end to the military operation met a harsh reality following clarifications from the White House. Official confirmation that naval escorts for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have not yet commenced, combined with reports of a potential Iranian mining threat, forced traders to remain cautious and partially rotate into cash.

Market attention has now shifted entirely to the upcoming inflation data. Traders fear that the recent spike in energy prices has already permeated macroeconomic indicators, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer than previously anticipated.

European equity markets mostly trended higher. The German DAX (DE40) surged by 2.39%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.79%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped to 3.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 1.59% higher. The primary catalyst for the optimism in Frankfurt was Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding a potential de-escalation in the Middle East, which led to a retreat in oil prices and eased fears of runaway inflation in the Eurozone.

However, the WTI oil market became an arena for intense informational warfare. After a morning slump to $80 per barrel, triggered by Trump’s “peaceful” tweets, quotes rebounded sharply to close near $87. This reversal followed an official statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which labeled Washington’s claims of an imminent end to the war as “false,” promising to block regional oil exports until US and Israeli strikes cease entirely. The situation intensified as US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, overseeing Operation “Epic Fury,” called Tuesday the “most intense day of airstrikes” since the conflict began, signaling a phase of systematic destruction of Iran’s industrial and naval infrastructure. The IEA has proposed a record-breaking release of strategic oil reserves; however, the physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a collapse in production from major Middle Eastern producers. This creates a supply deficit that reserves cannot fully offset, driving investors toward silver and other metals as a hedge against stagflation.

Asian markets also rebounded yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.88%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 1.06%, the Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 2.17%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.09%. Drivers for this optimism included strong corporate news and trade statistics from mainland China. China’s trade data for January-February 2026 continues to impress, with exports growing by a record 21.8% and imports by 19.8%. However, these strong figures also breed caution; investors worry that Beijing may view the economy as sufficiently resilient and delay further stimulus measures, especially given the recently announced 4.5-5.0% GDP target – the lowest in decades.

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) made an impressive leap to 0.716-0.718 USD, its highest level in nearly four years. This was driven by a sharp revision in interest rate expectations. The market reacted to signals from the RBA: the probability of a rate hike on March 17 skyrocketed from 30% to 75% in just days. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser confirmed that the spike in fuel prices (with petrol exceeding $2.15 per liter in major cities) poses a significant risk to inflation expectations, which already sit above the 23% target range.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) stabilized at 0.593-0.594 USD on March 11, 2026, holding weekly highs. This rise reflects a hawkish shift in investor sentiment. While the RBNZ signaled rate stability at 2.25% as recently as February, the March energy shock has forced the market to price in imminent tightening. Leading banks such as Westpac and BNZ have revised their inflation prognosis upward, expecting the CPI to remain within the upper 3.0% target boundary for most of 2026.

The US stock market concluded Monday’s session with gains. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.50%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.83%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) increased by 1.38%. The morning collapse, fueled by fears of stagflation, turned into a rally following statements by Donald Trump that the active phase of the war with Iran is “practically over” and that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening for tankers. This triggered a drop in WTI oil prices to $86 per barrel, removing the short-term threat of an energy collapse. The primary growth driver was the technology sector, where shares of AMD and Broadcom soared over 4.6% amid strong AI chip revenue predictions (Broadcom expects more than $100 billion in 2027). While the banking sector (Wells Fargo, Citigroup) remained under pressure due to private credit default risks, investors actively bought up discounted growth stocks.

On Tuesday, the Mexican peso (MXN) stabilized at 17.8 per dollar, breaking its fall toward seven-week lows. The rebound was sparked by Mexico’s February inflation data, which accelerated to 4.02%, breaching the central bank’s upper target threshold for the first time in a year. Despite local support, the peso remains a hostage to external shocks: the 10% global US tariffs and the war in the Middle East create a toxic backdrop for emerging market currencies. Although expensive oil bolsters Mexico’s budget, the peso’s status as a “proxy” for global risk makes it extremely vulnerable to every new wave of flight to the dollar.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the psychological $70,000 mark, gaining about 2% amid a sharp improvement in market sentiment. The upward momentum was provided by Donald Trump’s rhetoric, who described the war with Iran as “practically over” and predicted a swift resolution to the conflict. The digital assets market recovery synchronized with a powerful rally in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.8% to exceed 54,000 points. Altcoins followed the lead: Ether (ETH) returned to the $2,130 level, while Solana (SOL) stabilized near $91 ahead of the major Alpenglow network update later this month.

European stock markets mostly declined on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.98%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.86%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 0.34% lower. The primary pressure came from the escalation of US and Israeli strikes on Iranian refineries, which paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz and sparked fears of a new inflationary spiral. Consequently, traders began pricing in ECB rate hikes. The transport and industrial sectors suffered most: Lufthansa shares fell 7.3% due to soaring jet fuel prices, while tire manufacturer Continental fell 4.4%. Automakers (Volkswagen, Porsche) also finished in the red due to global supply chain risks.

Silver (XNG) recouped most of its morning losses, stabilizing at $83.9 per ounce. Earlier in the session, quotes had collapsed nearly 6%, testing key support near $80 due to a sharp strengthening of the dollar and oil prices spiking above $100. The dual nature of the metal, as a safe haven and an industrial commodity, created conflicting flows: while geopolitical tension supported haven demand, the threat of a global recession and reduced industrial consumption (which accounts for 60% of silver demand) exerted powerful downward pressure.

WTI oil prices performed a dizzying turnaround, collapsing nearly 4% by the end of the day to $87 per barrel. This followed an earlier surge to $120 on news of production paralysis in Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. The market cooled rapidly thanks to a coordinated statement from G7 Finance Ministers regarding readiness for massive strategic reserve interventions, effectively guaranteeing the replenishment of any short-term supply deficits.

Asian markets were also under a sell-off yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 5.20% during the session, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.47%, the Hang Seng (HK50) shed 1.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) closed down at 2.85%.

China’s trade surplus soared to a record $213 billion, with exports growing by 21.8% and imports by 19.8%. These figures significantly exceeded analyst prognosis and confirmed China’s status as a global manufacturing hub capable of scaling volumes even during periods of instability.

The Australian dollar (AUD) corrected to 0.70 against the US dollar on Tuesday, losing about 0.7% following the retreat in oil prices. As a “commodity” currency, the aussie faced pressure as brent fell to $91.37 and WTI to $86. This occurred after Donald Trump announced the military operation against Iran was significantly ahead of schedule, calling it “very complete” and predicting further fuel price declines. Domestic Australian statistics presented a mixed picture: the Westpac Index rose 1.2% to 91.6, while the NAB Business Confidence Index plummeted to 1, its first negative reading since April 2025.

• The Canadian dollar rose above 1.37 against the US dollar, reaching a one-month high and leading performance among G7 currencies.
• Mexican peso slid to 17.8 per dollar, a seven-week low and its weakest weekly result since summer 2024.
• Swiss franc trades near historic highs at 0.78 per USD, supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• Natural gas prices reached $3.4 per MMBtu, the highest in a month, on supply fears linked to Ras Laffan.

Oil prices surge above $100 per barrel

Trading on the US stock market ended lower. By the close of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.95% (-2.27% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) shed 1.33% (-1.41% for the week), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed down 1.59% (-0.60% for the week). This unanimous negative trend was driven by a dangerous combination of a geopolitical crisis and weak macroeconomic data, which heightened fears of stagflation. Washington’s ultimatum to Tehran and warnings from Middle Eastern exporters regarding force majeure circumstances propelled WTI oil prices to critical levels. Against this backdrop, the shocking contraction of 92,000 jobs in the US and the jump in the unemployment rate to 4.4% confirmed investor fears that high energy costs have begun to undermine the real economy and consumer activity.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to a one-month high above 1.37 against the US dollar, demonstrating the best performance among G7 currencies. The primary driver of the rally was the surge in WTI oil prices above $92 per barrel, which provided a massive influx of foreign exchange earnings into the Canadian economy amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to a seven-week low of 17.8 per dollar, showing its worst weekly performance since the summer of 2024. The main trigger for the decline was the shock contraction of US jobs, which amplified fears of an economic cooldown in Mexico’s largest trading partner. Despite a local weakening of the dollar index, the peso fell victim to a mass exodus of investors from risky emerging market assets, triggered by the escalation in the Middle East and the threat of global stagflation.

Equity markets in Europe mostly declined. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.94% (-4.80% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.65% (-5.53% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.99% (-4.57% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 1.24% lower (-5.33% for the week).

The Swiss franc (CHF) continues to trade near historical highs at 0.78 against the US dollar. Investors view the currency as the primary safe-haven asset amid the catastrophic escalation in the Middle East. However, further strengthening of the franc is limited by the hawkish rhetoric of the SNB. Vice President Antoine Martin confirmed that the regulator is ready for active currency interventions to prevent a deflationary spiral.

Silver prices (XAG) made a sharp move on Friday, consolidating above the $32.5 per ounce level. The main driver was the shocking US labor market report: the loss of 92,000 jobs and the rise in unemployment to 4.4% forced investors to urgently revise their anticipations. While the market had been preparing all week for a “higher-for-longer” interest rate scenario due to oil-driven inflationary pressure, Friday’s data sharply increased the likelihood of early Fed policy easing, reducing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

WTI oil prices demonstrated historic volatility: after a 31% surge, quotes stabilized above $100 per barrel (+13% for the day). This is the most powerful daily jump since the 2020 pandemic, caused by the paralysis of production in the Persian Gulf. In Iraq, production at southern fields collapsed by 70%, and Kuwait declared force majeure, which, combined with disruptions in Qatar, created a critical supply deficit on the global market. The situation is exacerbated by the risk of technical production halts in the UAE and Saudi Arabia; due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, exports are impossible, and domestic storage facilities are filling up critically fast. Against this background, a power transition occurred in Tehran. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ali Khamenei, became the new Supreme Leader of Iran, adding uncertainty regarding further escalation or the possibility of negotiations.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose to $3.4 per MMBtu, reaching a one-month high amid critical global supply disruptions. The main factor behind the panic was the production halt at the Qatari giant Ras Laffan following Iranian drone strikes and the declaration of force majeure. Since the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial shipping, approximately 20% of global LNG trade has been blocked, sharply increasing demand for American gas as the only stable alternative for Europe and Asia. The situation is further complicated by the war entering its second week: Israel and the US are striking Iranian fuel depots, while Tehran attacks the energy infrastructure of its neighbors.

Asian markets were also under a sell-off last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.70% over the trading week, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.98%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) shed 2.23%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 2.95% over the 5 days.

On Monday, the Nikkei 225 (JP225) plummeted by 6%, dropping to 32,000 points – its lowest level in two months. The massive sell-off was triggered by the jump in WTI oil prices above $100 per barrel (briefly reaching $119) amid the escalation of the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran. For the tech-oriented Japanese market, this served as a “fire siren,” as investors began pricing in the inevitable rise in production costs and the risk of global stagflation. Japan finds itself in a critical situation due to its unprecedented energy dependency: the country receives about 95% of its oil from the Middle East, with 70% of those supplies physically passing through the now-blocked Strait of Hormuz.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to $0.587, ending the week in the red amid the escalation in the Middle East and a flight to safe-haven assets. The energy shock and the blockade of supply routes make the New Zealand economy extremely vulnerable, as the country is totally dependent on imported oil. A conflict of expectations is brewing in the market: traders estimate the probability of an RBNZ rate hike in September at 80%, predicting a 40-basis-point tightening, while the regulator itself maintains a much softer rhetoric.