InvestMacro

By the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.55%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.01%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.44%. Investors shifted their focus from technology stocks toward cyclical and defense companies amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the scale and timing of Federal Reserve policy easing, as well as increased attention to the efficiency of capital expenditures in the field of artificial intelligence. The market was pressured by shares of large technology companies focused on AI infrastructure: Nvidia lost 2.2%, Broadcom 3.2%, Micron 3.7%, and Oracle 1.7%. At the same time, the defense sector demonstrated steady growth following President Donald Trump’s statements regarding plans to increase the US military budget to 1.5 trillion dollars in 2027.

According to a consumer expectations survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose to 3.4% in December 2025, compared to 3.2% in each of the two previous months. In contrast, inflation expectations for three and five years remained unchanged at 3.0%, indicating stable long-term inflation projections. Uncertainty regarding inflation increased across all horizons, pointing to a growing divergence in expectations regarding future prices.

The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.12%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.33%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed lower at 0.04%. European stock markets declined moderately on Thursday, taking a pause after hitting record levels earlier in the week. Sentiment was pressured by uncertainty surrounding the future course of ECB policy and persistent geopolitical risks.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 4% and exceeded the 58 dollars per barrel mark, recovering losses from the two previous sessions as the market reassessed short-term supply risks amid a more resilient physical balance in the US. Prices were supported by data showing a 3.8 million barrel reduction in US oil inventories, which significantly exceeded expectations and refuted prognoses of inventory growth, easing concerns about a global supply glut. The rise in quotes was partially limited by an increase in inventories at Cushing, as well as a sharp rise in gasoline and distillate inventories; however, weaker US labor market data supported demand expectations by strengthening the outlook for a more dovish Fed policy.

On Thursday, silver dropped by 5% to 74 dollars per ounce, marking its second consecutive session of decline as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the annual rebalancing of key commodity indices. This is expected to lead to the sale of billions of dollars worth of futures contracts in the coming days. Additional pressure on quotes was exerted by mechanical selling from passive funds adjusting their portfolios to new index weights following silver’s exceptional rally last year. These technical factors intensified the short-term decline despite persistent fundamental demand drivers.

Natural gas prices in the US decreased by approximately 3% to 3.42 dollars/MMBtu amid a moderate increase in daily production and expectations of mild weather for the next two weeks, which is anticipated to limit heating demand below seasonal norms. Although prognosists allow for a brief cold snap and a temporary increase in consumption at the end of January, overall temperatures across the country are predicted to remain above normal values until January 23. Meanwhile, EIA data showed higher actual demand: for the week ending January 2, 114 billion cubic feet of gas were withdrawn from storage, which significantly exceeds both last year’s figure and the five-year average.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.63%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 1.45%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.17%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.29% yesterday. On Friday, Chinese stock markets resumed their growth. In December, consumer price inflation accelerated to its highest level in nearly three years, primarily due to rising food prices, which partially masked persistent underlying deflationary pressure in the economy. At the same time, producer prices declined for the 39th consecutive month, although the rate of decline was the smallest since August 2024, which was perceived by the market as a sign of stabilization.

The unemployment rate in Malaysia in November 2025 decreased to 2.9% compared to 3.2% a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since November 2014. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 4.3% in annual terms to 518.4 thousand, marking a nearly six-year low, while employment rose by 3.1% and reached a record 17.09 million people.

On Wednesday, the US stocks closed mixed as investors balanced contradictory macroeconomic signals against expectations of a possible Fed policy easing. By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.94%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped by 0.34%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.16%. JOLTS data indicated a notable contraction in job openings and a cooling of labor demand, while the ADP report showed a moderate recovery in private sector hiring, and the growth in the ISM Services PMI confirmed a scenario of a slowing but still resilient economy. At the corporate level, the market was pressured by a decline in banking stocks: JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America shares fell by more than 2%, which was one of the reasons for the Dow’s weakness. At the same time, the technology sector appeared more stable – NVIDIA rose by 1%, and Alphabet gained 2.5%, supporting the Nasdaq.

European stock indices ended Wednesday’s trading with slight declines, taking a pause after the recent strong rally amid the ongoing reassessment of the ECB’s monetary policy prospects. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.92%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a decrease of 0.04%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.29%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.74%. Recent data showed that Eurozone inflation slowed to 2% in December, as expected, while core inflation fell more than projections, strengthening expectations that the ECB may proceed with rate cuts during the year. Defense companies were among the top gainers amid rising geopolitical tensions related to White House statements regarding Greenland and the US seizure of a Russian tanker that violated the blockade of Venezuela.

On Thursday, silver dropped below the $77 per ounce mark, continuing a correction after the recent rapid rally to historic highs. The weakening of bullish momentum coincided with a strengthening of the US dollar and mixed macroeconomic signals from the US, which failed to provide markets with a clear direction regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Currently, market participants estimate the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the next meeting at nearly 90%, although expectations for several rate cuts in the second half of the year remain priced in. This combination is curbing demand for precious metals in the short term, increasing investors’ inclination to take profits after the sharp rise in prices.

The US natural gas prices rose by more than 4% to $3.50 per MMBtu, rebounding from a 10-week low reached on January 6, amid a reduction in production and a revision of weather prognoses toward colder conditions and increased heating demand. Average production in the Lower 48 states in early January decreased to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day from the December record of 109.7 billion. Additional market support came from a rise in LNG exports: deliveries to the eight largest export terminals increased to a record 18.6 billion cubic feet per day.

Asian markets traded without a unified dynamic yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.06%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.45%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.94%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.15%. At the start of Thursday’s trading, Hong Kong stocks declined by 1.4%, continuing a fall for the second consecutive session. Pressure was intensified by profit-taking after the market reached a seven-week high earlier in the week, as well as growing caution ahead of Friday’s release of December inflation data from China (CPI and PPI). An additional negative factor was the geopolitical tension following Beijing’s decision to ban the export of dual-use goods to Japan in response to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan. However, the decline was partially mitigated by optimistic expectations from Goldman Sachs, which predicts steady growth for Chinese stocks this year due to increased corporate profits related to the development of artificial intelligence.

The New Zealand dollar held near the $0.576 mark, remaining in a sideways range throughout the week as investors balance external risks and domestic monetary expectations. On the external side, sentiment continues to be pressured by geopolitical uncertainty: political events in Venezuela following the removal of Nicolás Maduro, as well as rising tension between China and Japan, maintain a cautious approach to risk currencies, including the NZD. In the domestic context, the position of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains a key anchor for the exchange rate. The regulator signaled that the easing cycle, in which rates were cut by 225 bps, likely concluded last year, while also dispelling expectations for an imminent policy tightening.

Following Monday’s results, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.23%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.64%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.69%. On Monday, the rally in the US stock market continued, with the energy and financial sectors providing the main support to the indices. Investors perceived the US arrest of the Venezuelan leader more as a potential opportunity for future investment in the country’s oil industry than as a factor for immediate geopolitical escalation. Chevron shares jumped more than 5% due to expectations of the company expanding its presence in Venezuela, while oil refining companies rose on prospects of increased heavy oil supply.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.38 per US dollar, losing some of its recent gains after reaching its highest level since July. Pressure on the currency intensified due to the strengthening of the dollar caused by the geopolitical situation, specifically the US seizure of the President of Venezuela, which triggered an increase in demand for the dollar and raised concerns about the prospects for Venezuelan oil. Speculation regarding production and an uneven market reaction strengthened doubts about the stability of oil prices, which is a key support factor for the Canadian currency. Furthermore, the slowdown in economic growth in Canada in Q4 weakened the arguments for tight monetary policy, and global oil market expectations for 2026 suggest a supply surplus and moderate demand, further limiting the potential for the Canadian dollar to strengthen.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to a level above 18 per US dollar, as the sharp rise in the dollar caused by US military actions in Venezuela outweighed domestic currency support factors. The increased demand for the dollar triggered pressure on regional currencies, and the easing of the Bank of Mexico policy in late December reduced the yield advantage that had previously supported the peso after strong growth in 2025. This pressure is partially offset by an improvement in the external position and a transition to a current account surplus in mid-2025, which creates a floor for a sharper devaluation.
Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.34%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.20%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a positive 0.54%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) weakened to a level of around 0.795 per US dollar, remaining close to highs not seen since 2011, amid rising geopolitical tensions following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Uncertainty in the global economy related to US trade policy, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts, intensified demand for safe-haven assets despite the weakness of the franc. Investors remain focused on the upcoming domestic inflation data to be released on January 8: a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index is expected in monthly terms, with a growth of only 0.1% in annual terms. In December, the Swiss National Bank kept rates at 0%, and most analysts do not expect changes in 2026.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose above 1720 dollars per ounce, approaching a weekly high, amid rising geopolitical tensions in Venezuela following the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The events stimulated demand for precious metals as haven assets and also supported palladium due to its key role in catalytic converters for gasoline engines. Demand is also supported by expectations of the EU easing the ban on internal combustion engines by 2035 while maintaining strict environmental standards, and the launch of palladium futures in China, which increases liquidity and provides hedging opportunities.
Asian markets rose in synchronization yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.97%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.57%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.01%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.672 dollars, remaining near its highest level since October 2024, amid an improvement in global risk sentiment and a weakening of the US dollar. Investor attention is shifting to the publication of Australian inflation data for November, which is expected on Wednesday and is projected to show a moderate slowdown in price pressure. This data could prove key for the next steps of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had previously allowed for the possibility of a rate hike if inflationary risks persist.

Following Monday’s results, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.23%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.64%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.69%. On Monday, the rally in the US stock market continued, with the energy and financial sectors providing the main support to the indices. Investors perceived the US arrest of the Venezuelan leader more as a potential opportunity for future investment in the country’s oil industry than as a factor for immediate geopolitical escalation. Chevron shares jumped more than 5% due to expectations of the company expanding its presence in Venezuela, while oil refining companies rose on prospects of increased heavy oil supply.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.38 per US dollar, losing some of its recent gains after reaching its highest level since July. Pressure on the currency intensified due to the strengthening of the dollar caused by the geopolitical situation, specifically the US seizure of the President of Venezuela, which triggered an increase in demand for the dollar and raised concerns about the prospects for Venezuelan oil. Speculation regarding production and an uneven market reaction strengthened doubts about the stability of oil prices, which is a key support factor for the Canadian currency. Furthermore, the slowdown in economic growth in Canada in Q4 weakened the arguments for tight monetary policy, and global oil market expectations for 2026 suggest a supply surplus and moderate demand, further limiting the potential for the Canadian dollar to strengthen.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to a level above 18 per US dollar, as the sharp rise in the dollar caused by US military actions in Venezuela outweighed domestic currency support factors. The increased demand for the dollar triggered pressure on regional currencies, and the easing of the Bank of Mexico policy in late December reduced the yield advantage that had previously supported the peso after strong growth in 2025. This pressure is partially offset by an improvement in the external position and a transition to a current account surplus in mid-2025, which creates a floor for a sharper devaluation.
Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.34%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.20%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a positive 0.54%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) weakened to a level of around 0.795 per US dollar, remaining close to highs not seen since 2011, amid rising geopolitical tensions following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Uncertainty in the global economy related to US trade policy, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts, intensified demand for safe-haven assets despite the weakness of the franc. Investors remain focused on the upcoming domestic inflation data to be released on January 8: a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index is expected in monthly terms, with a growth of only 0.1% in annual terms. In December, the Swiss National Bank kept rates at 0%, and most analysts do not expect changes in 2026.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose above 1720 dollars per ounce, approaching a weekly high, amid rising geopolitical tensions in Venezuela following the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The events stimulated demand for precious metals as haven assets and also supported palladium due to its key role in catalytic converters for gasoline engines. Demand is also supported by expectations of the EU easing the ban on internal combustion engines by 2035 while maintaining strict environmental standards, and the launch of palladium futures in China, which increases liquidity and provides hedging opportunities.
Asian markets rose in synchronization yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.97%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.57%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.01%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.672 dollars, remaining near its highest level since October 2024, amid an improvement in global risk sentiment and a weakening of the US dollar. Investor attention is shifting to the publication of Australian inflation data for November, which is expected on Wednesday and is projected to show a moderate slowdown in price pressure. This data could prove key for the next steps of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had previously allowed for the possibility of a rate hike if inflationary risks persist.

The US equities concluded the final trading day of 2025 with declines as risks were trimmed and expectations for Fed policy were reassessed. At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by -0.63%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped by -0.74%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed -0.76% lower. Despite the weak finish, the year proved strong: the S&P 500 gained approximately +16.6%, the Nasdaq +20.4%, and the Dow +13.2%. AI-related companies remained the primary driver, while the broader market balanced geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainty, high valuations, and shifting rate expectations. Disagreements within the Fed regarding the pace of easing in 2026 and sharp volatility in the precious metals market in late December amplified the cautious investor sentiment at the start of the new year.

The Canadian dollar weakened above the 1.37 level per U.S. dollar, retreating from its highest point since July amid deteriorating domestic macroeconomic signals and year-end strength in the greenback. Statistics Canada recorded a -0.3% contraction in real GDP for October, confirming an economic slowdown in the fourth quarter and weakening the case for a tighter policy stance compared to the U.S. Additional pressure came from falling oil prices, which reduced export revenues, as well as a widening yield spread: Canada’s 10-year bond yield dipped toward 3%, while the US 10-year yield holds near 4%.

On the final trading day of 2025, European equities held near all-time highs, closing the year with their best performance since 2021. The German DAX (DE40) was not traded on Wednesday, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down -0.23%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell -0.27%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished Wednesday down -0.09%. Growth was supported by relatively resilient macroeconomic dynamics and expectations for expanded fiscal spending in the region; key contributions came from the banking sector, which posted its best results since the late 1990s, and basic resource companies following the rally in precious metals.

On Wednesday, silver plummeted by more than -5% to $72 per ounce, correcting from a record high of $86.62 reached earlier in the week due to year-end profit-taking. The correction is technical in nature following a meteoric rally: in 2025, the metal appreciated by more than 150%, significantly outperforming gold and making it the strongest year in silver’s history. Looking ahead, analysts expect continued interest from both retail and institutional investors, especially given the likelihood of further Fed easing in 2026, which may limit the depth of corrections after such powerful growth.

The US crude oil (WTI) inventories for the week ending December 26 decreased by 1.93 million barrels, the largest weekly decline since mid-November and notably exceeding market expectations. Nevertheless, total commercial inventories remain high at year-end, approximately 423 million barrels, which is significantly above historical norms and points to a persistent global supply surplus despite geopolitical constraints, including the blockade of Venezuelan supplies and sanctions against Russian producers.

The US natural gas prices declined toward approximately $3.70 per MMBtu, a minimum since late October, amid forecasts of warmer weather and weakening short-term heating demand. The expected reduction in heating degree days and downward revisions to consumption forecasts suggest lower demand in the coming weeks, while prospects for production growth add pressure to prices. However, in the broader horizon, the market remains relatively resilient: in 2025, gas prices may rise by about 4% thanks to record LNG exports. In 2026, the market will likely be supported by structural factors, including increased electrification and higher gas usage in power generation, despite the expected further expansion of supply.

Asian markets mostly declined on the final day of 2025. The Japanese Nikkei 225 was not traded, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by -0.59%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped -0.87%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of -0.03% on Wednesday.
President Xi Jinping stated that China’s economy is on track to meet its 5% growth target for 2025. Furthermore, Xi Jinping indicated that in 2026, authorities intend to move toward a more proactive macroeconomic policy to sustain growth rates. The focus will be on innovative development and maintaining stability amid ongoing global uncertainty, signaling Beijing’s readiness to ramp up stimulus measures if necessary.

On Monday, the US stock indices corrected after hitting record highs at the end of last week. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.51%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.35%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.46%. The primary pressure once again came from the technology sector amid growing doubts about the justification of high valuations for AI-related companies. The sell-off was led by Nvidia and Tesla, while weakness also affected Oracle and Palantir, as investors continue to question whether massive AI investments by software developers and data center operators can translate into comparable earnings growth.
European stock markets ended Monday with moderate gains, supported by strengthening shares in automakers and the technology sector. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.04%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.10%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.13%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.04%. Investors continued to assess the regional geopolitical situation, attempting to gauge whether the momentum of the strong rally can persist into the beginning of next year.

On Tuesday, silver recovered by more than 1%, rising toward $73 per ounce following a sharp collapse in the previous session, the strongest daily decline in five years, triggered by profit-taking. The metal continues to find support from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, including prolonged and unstable negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, rising risks surrounding Iran, and increased Chinese military activity near Taiwan. Despite high short-term volatility, the medium-term outlook for silver remains positive.

WTI oil prices consolidated around $58.1 per barrel on Tuesday after a sharp increase of over 2% the day before, driven by intensified geopolitical risks. Uncertainty regarding a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine rose again following Moscow’s statements about a possible revision of its negotiating position, despite recent signals from the US and Ukraine of progress, with key issues remaining unresolved. Additional tension is building over the situation in Venezuela, where production has reportedly begun to halt in a key region following US actions. Nevertheless, despite short-term geopolitical support, the oil market overall remains under pressure: prices have declined by nearly 20% since the start of the year, marking the sharpest annual drop since 2020 amid expectations of sufficient global supply.

The US natural gas prices rose toward the $4 per MMBtu mark, maintaining most of their recovery from a two-month low recorded in late December. Prices were supported by prognoses of colder weather, which boosted expectations for increased heating demand in early January and prompted utility companies to build positions in short-term contracts. An additional factor was EIA data showing a storage withdrawal of 166 billion cubic feet for the week ending December 19, a level exceeding the seasonal norm that pushed inventories below five-year averages. This occurred despite record production, as the expansion of LNG export capacity and European restrictions on Russian gas continue to support external demand for American LNG.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.44%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.10%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.71%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.42%.