By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (25,499 contracts) with Soybean Meal (1,061 contracts) and Cocoa (187 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-28,376 contracts), Sugar (-14,824 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,110 contracts), Wheat (-8,880 contracts), Cotton (-8,629 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,051 contracts), Coffee (-588 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-255 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
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Coffee leads Price Changes
Leading the soft commodities markets this week in price changes was Coffee, with a gain of over five percent. Live Cattle also came in higher by over two percent. Lean Hogs were almost up by two percent, and Sugar was up by three quarters of one percent.
On the downside, Cocoa lost over six and a half percent from its price this week and has been down by over nine percent for the last 30 days. Soybean Oil was lower by 1.5 percent, Soybean Meal by just about one percent, while Corn and Soybeans were also down by a little over half a percent. Cotton and Wheat were mostly unchanged.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (83 percent), Lean Hogs (83 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (54 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Soybean Meal (2 percent), Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the and the Cocoa (20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (21.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.0 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.2 percent)
Coffee (54.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (54.8 percent)
Soybeans (40.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (47.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (83.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (89.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.6 percent)
Live Cattle (82.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (82.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (83.3 percent)
Cotton (16.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.5 percent)
Cocoa (20.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (20.0 percent)
Wheat (32.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (39.1 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (6 percent) and Corn (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (0.2 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Soybeans (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-16 percent), Sugar (-8 percent) and Wheat (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-3.6 percent)
Sugar (-8.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-4.2 percent)
Coffee (-1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.9 percent)
Soybeans (-24.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-24.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (6.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (13.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-2.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.9 percent)
Live Cattle (0.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (-2.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.9 percent)
Cocoa (-2.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-7.3 percent)
Wheat (-6.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (12.0 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.8 | 41.7 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.5 | 32.6 | 11.4 |
| – Net Position: | -107,968 | 147,872 | -39,904 |
| – Gross Longs: | 304,053 | 674,523 | 144,743 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 412,021 | 526,651 | 184,647 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.5 | 79.6 | 60.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.1 | 0.7 | -31.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.0 | 53.5 | 7.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.7 | 43.4 | 8.5 |
| – Net Position: | -76,972 | 89,529 | -12,557 |
| – Gross Longs: | 195,681 | 475,643 | 62,659 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 272,653 | 386,114 | 75,216 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 3.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.3 | 9.0 | -11.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.2 | 39.1 | 4.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.2 | 57.4 | 4.2 |
| – Net Position: | 29,258 | -29,818 | 560 |
| – Gross Longs: | 49,040 | 63,450 | 7,367 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 19,782 | 93,268 | 6,807 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.5 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.2 | 48.5 | 27.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.8 | 2.8 | -18.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.4 | 53.4 | 5.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.0 | 46.9 | 7.7 |
| – Net Position: | -39,160 | 54,893 | -15,733 |
| – Gross Longs: | 156,793 | 454,917 | 49,527 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 195,953 | 400,024 | 65,260 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.5 | 58.9 | 71.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -24.3 | 26.3 | -6.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.4 | 43.3 | 6.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.3 | 57.2 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | 74,946 | -86,018 | 11,072 |
| – Gross Longs: | 145,207 | 269,368 | 38,074 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 70,261 | 355,386 | 27,002 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.3 | 17.7 | 73.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.3 | -6.4 | 5.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.0 | 51.8 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.2 | 42.3 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | -81,610 | 63,890 | 17,720 |
| – Gross Longs: | 113,280 | 346,431 | 51,829 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 194,890 | 282,541 | 34,109 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 2.0 | 99.8 | 43.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.1 | 4.6 | -35.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.0 | 28.7 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.5 | 50.4 | 13.6 |
| – Net Position: | 106,375 | -83,729 | -22,646 |
| – Gross Longs: | 185,524 | 111,147 | 30,020 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 79,149 | 194,876 | 52,666 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 82.9 | 20.3 | 17.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.2 | 3.9 | -11.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 44.3 | 29.1 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.8 | 49.2 | 7.7 |
| – Net Position: | 73,138 | -68,353 | -4,785 |
| – Gross Longs: | 150,728 | 99,031 | 21,285 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 77,590 | 167,384 | 26,070 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 82.5 | 16.9 | 48.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.5 | 15.5 | 15.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.8 | 46.4 | 4.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.9 | 30.5 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | -35,478 | 37,338 | -1,860 |
| – Gross Longs: | 69,961 | 109,145 | 11,121 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 105,439 | 71,807 | 12,981 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.2 | 86.1 | 8.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.7 | 3.0 | -6.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.3 | 42.3 | 10.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.7 | 56.3 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | 10,043 | -13,330 | 3,287 |
| – Gross Longs: | 24,969 | 40,221 | 10,191 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,926 | 53,551 | 6,904 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 20.2 | 80.4 | 52.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.9 | 4.1 | -12.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.8 | 36.7 | 7.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.7 | 20.4 | 8.0 |
| – Net Position: | -78,565 | 80,870 | -2,305 |
| – Gross Longs: | 132,500 | 181,531 | 37,218 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 211,065 | 100,661 | 39,523 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.0 | 71.4 | 40.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.0 | 4.6 | 13.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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