By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (9,271 contracts) with Live Cattle (5,601 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,644 contracts), Cotton (1,662 contracts) and Coffee (52 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-59,530 contracts), Soybeans (-10,088 contracts), Sugar (-16,325 contracts), Soybean Meal (-221 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,260 contracts) and with Cocoa (-441 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Free Reports:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (86 percent) and Soybean Oil (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (74 percent), Soybeans (63 percent) and Lean Hogs (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Soybean Meal (5 percent), Wheat (6 percent) and Sugar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (51.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (59.7 percent)
Sugar (17.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.0 percent)
Coffee (73.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (73.6 percent)
Soybeans (63.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (80.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.4 percent)
Live Cattle (85.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.8 percent)
Cotton (31.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (30.6 percent)
Cocoa (27.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.7 percent)
Wheat (6.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (50 percent) and Cotton (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (16 percent) and Lean Hogs (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Wheat (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-11 percent), Live Cattle (-9 percent) and Sugar (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-11.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.6 percent)
Sugar (-9.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.2 percent)
Coffee (-8.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-6.6 percent)
Soybeans (16.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (44.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-1.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-9.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.2 percent)
Cotton (26.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.8 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.9 percent)
Wheat (-17.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-27.7 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.3 | 45.3 | 8.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.8 | 50.1 | 11.0 |
| – Net Position: | 115,899 | -75,297 | -40,602 |
| – Gross Longs: | 376,617 | 701,110 | 129,869 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 260,718 | 776,407 | 170,471 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 51.6 | 49.4 | 59.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.4 | 9.2 | 22.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.6 | 53.2 | 7.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.8 | 55.5 | 8.2 |
| – Net Position: | 22,440 | -18,002 | -4,438 |
| – Gross Longs: | 196,150 | 424,216 | 61,109 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 173,710 | 442,218 | 65,547 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.8 | 85.7 | 14.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.5 | 14.8 | -34.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 38.6 | 36.9 | 5.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 6.6 | 70.4 | 4.0 |
| – Net Position: | 49,341 | -51,788 | 2,447 |
| – Gross Longs: | 59,594 | 56,913 | 8,598 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,253 | 108,701 | 6,151 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.8 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 73.7 | 27.6 | 59.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.8 | 9.0 | -5.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.8 | 50.4 | 5.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.5 | 54.4 | 8.0 |
| – Net Position: | 49,385 | -30,958 | -18,427 |
| – Gross Longs: | 177,646 | 392,063 | 43,458 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 128,261 | 423,021 | 61,885 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.2 | 35.7 | 64.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.3 | -19.7 | 24.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.0 | 45.5 | 5.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.4 | 58.7 | 4.4 |
| – Net Position: | 66,905 | -75,639 | 8,734 |
| – Gross Longs: | 155,811 | 262,712 | 33,834 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 88,906 | 338,351 | 25,100 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 78.8 | 23.0 | 49.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 49.9 | -51.3 | 41.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.0 | 50.3 | 8.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.4 | 44.3 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | -53,955 | 33,912 | 20,043 |
| – Gross Longs: | 119,134 | 285,863 | 49,215 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 173,089 | 251,951 | 29,172 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.3 | 91.2 | 54.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.9 | 1.0 | 11.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.5 | 27.5 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.1 | 49.7 | 13.5 |
| – Net Position: | 108,631 | -84,943 | -23,688 |
| – Gross Longs: | 185,603 | 105,351 | 27,847 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 76,972 | 190,294 | 51,535 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 85.6 | 18.8 | 14.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.0 | 11.7 | -0.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.4 | 35.5 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.5 | 48.5 | 8.2 |
| – Net Position: | 37,501 | -34,963 | -2,538 |
| – Gross Longs: | 100,650 | 95,588 | 19,676 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,149 | 130,551 | 22,214 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.8 | 40.9 | 62.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.3 | -6.8 | -0.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.5 | 47.1 | 4.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.1 | 41.1 | 6.2 |
| – Net Position: | -10,076 | 13,137 | -3,061 |
| – Gross Longs: | 64,851 | 103,419 | 10,468 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 74,927 | 90,282 | 13,529 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.7 | 72.2 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 26.7 | -23.3 | -22.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.8 | 40.2 | 10.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.1 | 63.5 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | 16,911 | -21,174 | 4,263 |
| – Gross Longs: | 27,028 | 36,520 | 9,402 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,117 | 57,694 | 5,139 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 27.2 | 72.3 | 62.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.3 | 38.6 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 49.9 | 16.4 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -107,537 | 101,506 | 6,031 |
| – Gross Longs: | 119,875 | 176,106 | 36,682 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 227,412 | 74,600 | 30,651 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.4 | 94.0 | 90.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.2 | 16.3 | 15.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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