By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,275 contracts) with Live Cattle (7,421 contracts), Soybeans (5,523 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,796 contracts), Sugar (3,421 contracts), Cotton (3,378 contracts), Coffee (1,122 contracts) and Cocoa (966 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-14,339 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,840 contracts) and with Wheat (-5,643 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (76 percent) and Soybean Oil (75 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (66 percent), Soybeans (65 percent) and Corn (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Wheat (7 percent) and Soybean Meal (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Sugar (21 percent) and Cotton (23 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (63.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.1 percent)
Sugar (21.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.1 percent)
Coffee (65.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (64.6 percent)
Soybeans (64.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (75.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (72.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.5 percent)
Live Cattle (76.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (69.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (52.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (41.8 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.5 percent)
Cocoa (25.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (24.9 percent)
Wheat (6.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.0 percent)
Coffee (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Corn (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.2 percent)
Sugar (7.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-14.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-18.3 percent)
Soybeans (17.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (21.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (22.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (13.0 percent)
Live Cattle (1.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-22.1 percent)
Cotton (19.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.5 percent)
Cocoa (-1.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.1 percent)
Wheat (-12.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-2.6 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.4 | 45.3 | 7.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.5 | 54.8 | 10.5 |
| – Net Position: | 219,843 | -161,479 | -58,364 |
| – Gross Longs: | 450,712 | 773,840 | 121,656 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 230,869 | 935,319 | 180,020 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.3 | 39.5 | 38.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.3 | 7.5 | -7.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.3 | 55.8 | 6.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.3 | 59.7 | 7.0 |
| – Net Position: | 33,235 | -32,502 | -733 |
| – Gross Longs: | 193,078 | 463,598 | 57,180 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 159,843 | 496,100 | 57,913 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.2 | 81.8 | 19.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.8 | -3.1 | -17.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 35.1 | 41.9 | 5.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.0 | 71.5 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | 41,056 | -43,332 | 2,276 |
| – Gross Longs: | 51,215 | 61,110 | 8,005 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,159 | 104,442 | 5,729 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.7 | 35.6 | 56.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.9 | 15.6 | -15.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.6 | 52.0 | 5.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.7 | 55.8 | 8.2 |
| – Net Position: | 55,684 | -31,452 | -24,232 |
| – Gross Longs: | 191,535 | 422,467 | 42,698 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 135,851 | 453,919 | 66,930 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.8 | 35.9 | 49.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 17.4 | -20.3 | 20.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.8 | 48.8 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.0 | 60.7 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | 60,391 | -66,889 | 6,498 |
| – Gross Longs: | 133,444 | 273,789 | 31,901 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 73,053 | 340,678 | 25,403 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 75.2 | 27.5 | 40.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 34.2 | -34.3 | 21.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.0 | 48.9 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.1 | 46.7 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | -30,976 | 13,581 | 17,395 |
| – Gross Longs: | 114,769 | 295,935 | 48,216 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 145,745 | 282,354 | 30,821 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 14.7 | 83.1 | 40.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.8 | -5.9 | 3.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.8 | 30.2 | 8.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.8 | 53.2 | 14.1 |
| – Net Position: | 99,006 | -78,413 | -20,593 |
| – Gross Longs: | 159,752 | 103,109 | 27,583 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 60,746 | 181,522 | 48,176 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 76.3 | 26.7 | 24.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.6 | -2.6 | 1.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 35.6 | 35.7 | 7.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.6 | 47.0 | 8.4 |
| – Net Position: | 31,296 | -29,609 | -1,687 |
| – Gross Longs: | 93,049 | 93,132 | 20,201 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 61,753 | 122,741 | 21,888 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.0 | 45.4 | 67.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.3 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.9 | 49.7 | 4.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 39.4 | 37.0 | 6.0 |
| – Net Position: | -25,078 | 27,632 | -2,554 |
| – Gross Longs: | 60,797 | 108,112 | 10,492 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 85,875 | 80,480 | 13,046 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.5 | 80.5 | 1.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 19.2 | -16.4 | -19.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.9 | 41.3 | 10.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.0 | 63.1 | 6.6 |
| – Net Position: | 15,577 | -18,970 | 3,393 |
| – Gross Longs: | 25,112 | 35,919 | 9,148 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 9,535 | 54,889 | 5,755 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.6 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 25.8 | 74.6 | 53.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.8 | 2.0 | -3.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.2 | 38.1 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.9 | 18.1 | 7.1 |
| – Net Position: | -93,969 | 90,745 | 3,224 |
| – Gross Longs: | 114,514 | 173,053 | 35,271 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 208,483 | 82,308 | 32,047 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.7 | 93.7 | 74.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.1 | 11.1 | 11.6 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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