COT Soft Commodities Charts: Large Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybean Oil

November 16, 2024

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the softs markets was  Corn (74,998 contracts) with Soybean Oil (20,687 contracts), Soybeans (11,870 contracts), Live Cattle (5,941 contracts), Coffee (5,491 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,541 contracts), Cocoa (1,603 contracts) and Cotton (955 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-15,988 contracts), Sugar (-10,099 contracts) and with Soybean Meal (-1,818 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs, Soybean Oil & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent), Soybean Oil (95 percent) and Coffee (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (70 percent) and Corn (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (23 percent) and Sugar (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Soybeans (28 percent) and the Soybean Meal (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (56.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (46.9 percent)
Sugar (25.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (29.0 percent)
Coffee (92.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (28.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (94.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (32.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.3 percent)
Live Cattle (70.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (64.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (95.9 percent)
Cotton (22.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.0 percent)
Cocoa (49.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.4 percent)
Wheat (42.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.8 percent)


Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (51 percent) and Live Cattle (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (26 percent) and Corn (24 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-23 percent) and Sugar (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (23.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.2 percent)
Sugar (-21.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.1 percent)
Coffee (0.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.4 percent)
Soybeans (-0.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (31.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-37.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-19.9 percent)
Live Cattle (34.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (46.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.2 percent)
Cotton (-0.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.6 percent)
Cocoa (-1.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.7 percent)
Wheat (-23.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.5 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 177,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 74,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.0 45.6 7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 53.2 10.9
– Net Position: 177,646 -126,120 -51,526
– Gross Longs: 434,784 763,888 130,863
– Gross Shorts: 257,138 890,008 182,389
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 45.8 39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.5 -24.3 -2.0

 


SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.0 50.6 8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.0 61.5 5.9
– Net Position: 68,122 -93,064 24,942
– Gross Longs: 213,319 431,903 75,606
– Gross Shorts: 145,197 524,967 50,664
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.4 69.7 52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.6 18.3 -3.2

 


COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,977 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.8 38.7 4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.4 73.6 2.8
– Net Position: 68,468 -71,568 3,100
– Gross Longs: 77,574 79,450 8,905
– Gross Shorts: 9,106 151,018 5,805
– Long to Short Ratio: 8.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.6 7.0 64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 1.0 -26.7

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -77,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.7 57.7 5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 46.5 7.8
– Net Position: -77,113 96,357 -19,244
– Gross Longs: 161,342 497,249 48,231
– Gross Shorts: 238,455 400,892 67,475
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.4 72.5 62.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 -1.1 20.6

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.1 46.9 6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.5 65.8 4.1
– Net Position: 97,225 -110,883 13,658
– Gross Longs: 181,752 274,081 37,629
– Gross Shorts: 84,527 384,964 23,971
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.7 8.2 67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 25.7 -27.6 34.3

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 45.7 9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 51.6 5.7
– Net Position: 12,506 -36,537 24,031
– Gross Longs: 147,784 284,235 59,719
– Gross Shorts: 135,278 320,772 35,688
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.5 63.2 63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -37.5 37.8 -17.8

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,941 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.3 33.4 6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.7 50.9 13.8
– Net Position: 84,779 -60,663 -24,116
– Gross Longs: 152,817 115,140 23,645
– Gross Shorts: 68,038 175,803 47,761
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.4 48.3 0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.4 -29.7 -28.6

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 75,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.0 28.5 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 48.3 9.1
– Net Position: 75,982 -67,843 -8,139
– Gross Longs: 165,266 98,205 23,318
– Gross Shorts: 89,284 166,048 31,457
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 50.7 -52.0 -16.2

 


COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.0 48.2 5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 43.6 6.0
– Net Position: -11,486 11,808 -322
– Gross Longs: 63,281 122,036 14,854
– Gross Shorts: 74,767 110,228 15,176
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.6 78.0 14.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 2.6 -17.7

 


COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 38,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,659 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.4 36.7 10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 74.3 4.2
– Net Position: 38,262 -45,908 7,646
– Gross Longs: 51,893 44,940 12,752
– Gross Shorts: 13,631 90,848 5,106
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.0 46.0 77.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 -0.8 16.2

 


WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 39.5 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.3 28.9 9.0
– Net Position: -38,529 47,109 -8,580
– Gross Longs: 105,967 176,335 31,795
– Gross Shorts: 144,496 129,226 40,375
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 60.8 11.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.4 26.7 -15.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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