COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

August 10, 2024

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (60,473 contracts) with Soybeans (8,772 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,397 contracts), Wheat (2,873 contracts) and Lean Hogs (705 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-14,702 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,288 contracts), Sugar (-10,664 contracts), Cotton (-4,567 contracts), Coffee (-3,809 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,773 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (84 percent) leads the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (9 percent), Sugar (10 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Soybean Oil (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (14.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.8 percent)
Sugar (9.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.2 percent)
Coffee (83.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (9.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (6.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (21.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (42.9 percent)
Live Cattle (27.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (43.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.4 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.8 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.5 percent)
Wheat (39.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.5 percent)


Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (15 percent) and Lean Hogs (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (3 percent), Corn (2 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-11 percent), Coffee (-11 percent) and Soybeans (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-17.3 percent)
Sugar (-3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.4 percent)
Soybeans (-11.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-22.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-26.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-3.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.5 percent)
Cotton (-11.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.9 percent)
Cocoa (1.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.9 percent)
Wheat (2.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-11.6 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -151,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 60,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -212,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.3 44.7 9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.9 33.7 10.7
– Net Position: -151,969 173,479 -21,510
– Gross Longs: 320,403 705,379 147,095
– Gross Shorts: 472,372 531,900 168,605
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.5 85.5 79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 -2.7 3.5

 


SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.3 55.2 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.1 57.7 8.2
– Net Position: 25,815 -20,274 -5,541
– Gross Longs: 186,989 443,364 60,431
– Gross Shorts: 161,174 463,638 65,972
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.7 91.2 12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.7 6.2 -15.2

 


COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.7 41.6 3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 67.0 2.4
– Net Position: 59,207 -61,771 2,564
– Gross Longs: 72,262 101,059 8,330
– Gross Shorts: 13,055 162,830 5,766
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.6 16.6 56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.2 11.6 -6.9

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -159,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.1 61.5 5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.4 39.5 7.1
– Net Position: -159,128 173,211 -14,083
– Gross Longs: 111,259 484,227 41,958
– Gross Shorts: 270,387 311,016 56,041
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.0 91.6 75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.3 13.6 -18.3

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.0 53.1 5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.9 44.9 4.8
– Net Position: -49,166 45,285 3,881
– Gross Longs: 115,500 292,565 30,057
– Gross Shorts: 164,666 247,280 26,176
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.5 85.3 29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.5 -14.7 12.5

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.3 43.1 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.0 55.0 5.6
– Net Position: 43,091 -61,351 18,260
– Gross Longs: 125,998 223,119 47,203
– Gross Shorts: 82,907 284,470 28,943
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 53.4 37.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.2 15.9 30.1

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 32.5 10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.9 44.1 14.1
– Net Position: 45,272 -33,544 -11,728
– Gross Longs: 108,655 94,052 28,946
– Gross Shorts: 63,383 127,596 40,674
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.8 81.7 27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.7 8.6 -19.0

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 39.5 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.3 29.0 7.7
– Net Position: -21,490 25,276 -3,786
– Gross Longs: 87,503 95,087 14,748
– Gross Shorts: 108,993 69,811 18,534
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.0 90.3 66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.4 -2.5 -11.5

 


COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.5 50.8 5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 31.2 6.5
– Net Position: -41,908 44,447 -2,539
– Gross Longs: 60,131 115,178 12,254
– Gross Shorts: 102,039 70,731 14,793
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 1.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.0 10.5 -4.1

 


COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 35.5 8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.5 62.5 4.3
– Net Position: 31,097 -37,073 5,976
– Gross Longs: 49,602 48,710 11,944
– Gross Shorts: 18,505 85,783 5,968
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.7 54.9 63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.8 -1.7 -0.1

 


WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 38.9 7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.7 28.0 8.5
– Net Position: -40,385 46,947 -6,562
– Gross Longs: 122,142 167,818 30,313
– Gross Shorts: 162,527 120,871 36,875
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.5 61.6 29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 0.3 -22.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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