COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (46,709 contracts) with Wheat (30,137 contracts), Coffee (3,702 contracts), Lean Hogs (586 contracts) and Cotton (373 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-39,607 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,399 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,977 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,783 contracts), Cocoa (-4,735 contracts) and Live Cattle (-2,399 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (78 percent) and Soybean Meal (66 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (63 percent) and Sugar (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (2 percent), Corn (7 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Cotton (14 percent), Soybean Oil (19 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (50.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (64.8 percent)
Coffee (62.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (58.8 percent)
Soybeans (1.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (66.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (74.2 percent)
Live Cattle (19.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (21.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.9 percent)
Cotton (13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.4 percent)
Cocoa (78.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (83.0 percent)
Wheat (20.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

 

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (16 percent) and Soybean Meal (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-21 percent), Soybean Oil (-17 percent) and Cotton (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-8.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.4 percent)
Sugar (-21.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Coffee (16.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (31.5 percent)
Soybeans (-6.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (30.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-20.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-41.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-3.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.5 percent)
Cotton (-12.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-20.4 percent)
Cocoa (-10.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.2 percent)
Wheat (-4.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-19.4 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -110,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 46,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -157,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	46.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	35.7	13.1
– Net Position:	-110,439	137,754	-27,315
– Gross Longs:	272,899	586,174	137,666
– Gross Shorts:	383,338	448,420	164,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	94.5	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	8.0	11.8

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 165,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 205,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	48.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	70.5	6.2
– Net Position:	165,469	-188,821	23,352
– Gross Longs:	249,241	413,191	76,231
– Gross Shorts:	83,772	602,012	52,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.6	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.4	25.4	-31.1

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	36.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	54.0	4.9
– Net Position:	34,260	-35,882	1,622
– Gross Longs:	67,450	76,883	11,747
– Gross Shorts:	33,190	112,765	10,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	40.2	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-17.7	21.6

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	55.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	56.3	9.9
– Net Position:	20,298	-2,961	-17,337
– Gross Longs:	116,761	399,901	53,751
– Gross Shorts:	96,463	402,862	71,088
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	95.6	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.9	-13.0

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	48.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	50.0	5.5
– Net Position:	1,256	-5,792	4,536
– Gross Longs:	92,474	234,618	31,193
– Gross Shorts:	91,218	240,410	26,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	79.6	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	14.3	8.2

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 116,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,628 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	35.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	62.3	5.7
– Net Position:	116,651	-138,507	21,856
– Gross Longs:	159,725	184,597	51,421
– Gross Shorts:	43,074	323,104	29,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	32.4	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.8	7.7

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 37,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	40.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	52.7	13.6
– Net Position:	37,458	-32,960	-4,498
– Gross Longs:	70,378	106,961	31,558
– Gross Shorts:	32,920	139,921	36,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	82.4	65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.9	19.7	17.3

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	40.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	24.9	11.3
– Net Position:	-24,690	29,445	-4,755
– Gross Longs:	54,967	77,503	17,073
– Gross Shorts:	79,657	48,058	21,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	96.6	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	7.8	-21.5

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	45.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	48.1	6.2
– Net Position:	6,557	-5,291	-1,266
– Gross Longs:	62,704	89,387	11,020
– Gross Shorts:	56,147	94,678	12,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	86.8	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	14.2	-29.1

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.4	26.1	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	50.9	4.5
– Net Position:	66,911	-69,993	3,082
– Gross Longs:	122,246	73,390	15,894
– Gross Shorts:	55,335	143,383	12,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	21.8	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	10.0	1.4

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -67,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 30,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	40.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	22.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-67,067	72,571	-5,504
– Gross Longs:	119,965	162,290	29,963
– Gross Shorts:	187,032	89,719	35,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	80.6	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	11.6	-36.2

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.