COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (7,001 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (588 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (563 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-15,980 contracts), the VIX (-9,879 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-5,972 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-29 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

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Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (81 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (57 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (48 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (80.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (87.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (56.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (56.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (39.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (48.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (48.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.5 percent)

 

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (13.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (5.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-33.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (23.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-41.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-30.0 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	50.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	38.8	6.4
– Net Position:	-42,928	46,627	-3,699
– Gross Longs:	94,375	207,847	22,934
– Gross Shorts:	137,303	161,220	26,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	18.2	77.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	4.0	13.5

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	72.7	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	72.2	10.1
– Net Position:	-52,833	11,057	41,776
– Gross Longs:	274,348	1,593,850	262,981
– Gross Shorts:	327,181	1,582,793	221,205
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	41.4	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-4.8	5.8

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	66.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.8	25.3	15.9
– Net Position:	-36,513	41,796	-5,283
– Gross Longs:	20,914	67,381	10,795
– Gross Shorts:	57,427	25,585	16,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	98.7	18.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	20.7	-39.9

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	57.7	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	58.5	13.8
– Net Position:	315	-2,032	1,717
– Gross Longs:	69,502	158,039	39,612
– Gross Shorts:	69,187	160,071	37,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	42.1	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-4.7	12.1

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	80.7	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	68.2	4.7
– Net Position:	-65,566	68,821	-3,255
– Gross Longs:	77,725	445,804	22,861
– Gross Shorts:	143,291	376,983	26,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	69.1	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	3.6	-12.8

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -29 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	68.9	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	57.2	18.6
– Net Position:	-2,587	1,890	697
– Gross Longs:	1,287	11,162	3,716
– Gross Shorts:	3,874	9,272	3,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	47.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	17.9	-5.1

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -64,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	91.9	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.3	1.8
– Net Position:	-64,174	61,412	2,762
– Gross Longs:	19,177	362,575	9,791
– Gross Shorts:	83,351	301,163	7,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.3	41.8	-3.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.