COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (9,014 contracts) with Live Cattle (6,055 contracts), Lean Hogs (5,402 contracts) and Cocoa (1,403 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-42,356 contracts) with Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,933 contracts), Cotton (-5,028 contracts), Soybean Meal (-4,467 contracts), Wheat (-3,209 contracts) and Soybeans (-2,112 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

---

 

---

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (77 percent), Soybean Meal (51 percent) and Cotton (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybeans (23 percent), Lean Hogs (29 percent) and Wheat (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.7 percent)
Sugar (77.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (74.1 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (22.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (23.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (44.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (50.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (53.1 percent)
Live Cattle (78.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.6 percent)
Cotton (47.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.2 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.6 percent)
Wheat (31.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.8 percent)

 

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (12 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (6 percent), Lean Hogs (3 percent) and Live Cattle (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-23 percent), Wheat (-17 percent) and Soybean Meal (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-26.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-18.3 percent)
Sugar (11.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.5 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-11.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (1.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-9.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-2.6 percent)
Cotton (5.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.9 percent)
Cocoa (9.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.5 percent)
Wheat (-16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-18.4 percent)

---

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -87,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -42,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	49.5	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	40.2	12.7
– Net Position:	-87,988	118,836	-30,848
– Gross Longs:	264,473	628,085	130,320
– Gross Shorts:	352,461	509,249	161,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	89.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	22.0	55.4

 

---

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 244,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 235,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	44.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	74.7	4.6
– Net Position:	244,435	-297,725	53,290
– Gross Longs:	328,566	446,542	98,865
– Gross Shorts:	84,131	744,267	45,575
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	18.8	72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-15.6	24.2

 

---

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

 

---

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 85,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	49.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	58.8	9.0
– Net Position:	85,217	-68,440	-16,777
– Gross Longs:	162,761	366,434	49,882
– Gross Shorts:	77,544	434,874	66,659
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	73.2	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	9.3	3.9

 

---

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	50.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	62.9	4.5
– Net Position:	46,002	-56,338	10,336
– Gross Longs:	97,027	240,105	31,734
– Gross Shorts:	51,025	296,443	21,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	53.4	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	2.3	0.1

 

---

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	41.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	64.8	5.5
– Net Position:	88,283	-107,255	18,972
– Gross Longs:	109,513	189,177	43,929
– Gross Shorts:	21,230	296,432	24,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	49.9	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	11.9	0.1

 

---

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	28.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	52.6	13.1
– Net Position:	92,544	-77,999	-14,545
– Gross Longs:	144,383	93,333	28,157
– Gross Shorts:	51,839	171,332	42,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.7	27.4	8.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	2.3	-19.3

 

---

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	37.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	35.1	11.8
– Net Position:	-730	4,709	-3,979
– Gross Longs:	66,425	73,897	19,379
– Gross Shorts:	67,155	69,188	23,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	74.6	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-0.6	-12.7

 

---

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 51,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	42.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	69.0	3.7
– Net Position:	51,382	-60,187	8,805
– Gross Longs:	86,922	96,890	17,240
– Gross Shorts:	35,540	157,077	8,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.4	49.6	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.6	-4.1

 

---

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,220 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.1	24.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	55.4	3.1
– Net Position:	87,623	-91,493	3,870
– Gross Longs:	140,004	73,434	13,097
– Gross Shorts:	52,381	164,927	9,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-10.1	5.8

 

---

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	34.0	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	22.1	9.3
– Net Position:	-49,619	46,521	3,098
– Gross Longs:	114,277	133,152	39,447
– Gross Shorts:	163,896	86,631	36,349
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.1	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	11.7	34.7

 

---

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.