COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn & Soybeans

August 12, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.


Free Reports:

Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.





Sign Up for Our Stock Market Newsletter – Get updated on News, Charts & Rankings of Public Companies when you join our Stocks Newsletter





Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (3,283 contracts) with Cocoa (1,288 contracts) and Live Cattle (348 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-54,347 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,297 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,122 contracts), Sugar (-12,378 contracts), Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybean Meal (-2,539 contracts), Cotton (-2,736 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-658 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-08-2023 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,703,711 27 255,928 29 -278,338 74 22,410 24
Gold 427,759 3 142,985 40 -167,554 59 24,569 42
Silver 137,631 29 13,324 37 -30,349 57 17,025 61
Copper 228,537 65 -10,057 22 4,908 76 5,149 51
Palladium 20,470 100 -10,192 0 10,299 100 -107 35
Platinum 79,989 100 2,992 22 -8,591 76 5,599 43
Natural Gas 1,183,146 46 -107,843 29 81,717 72 26,126 42
Brent 121,594 0 -34,740 44 32,092 58 2,648 45
Heating Oil 324,934 46 30,881 84 -57,516 15 26,635 91
Soybeans 628,182 12 83,463 22 -63,652 75 -19,811 54
Corn 1,284,433 12 25,727 16 26,794 86 -52,521 40
Coffee 180,118 3 8,495 36 -8,052 68 -443 7
Sugar 912,260 51 199,223 61 -230,769 39 31,546 43
Wheat 343,982 34 -22,794 51 25,578 49 -2,784 63

 


Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (61 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Wheat (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (16 percent) and Soybeans (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (25 percent) and the Coffee (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (16.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (25.2 percent)
Sugar (61.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (65.7 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (22.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (47.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (62.4 percent)
Live Cattle (77.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (25.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.2 percent)
Cotton (39.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (41.7 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.6 percent)
Wheat (50.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (48.2 percent)

 

Cotton & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (32 percent) and Wheat (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (10 percent), Cocoa (9 percent) and Lean Hogs (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-14 percent), Live Cattle (-13 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-14.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.2 percent)
Sugar (-7.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-17.5 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-7.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (13.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-12.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (11.9 percent)
Cotton (32.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (28.0 percent)
Cocoa (8.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.2 percent)
Wheat (17.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (28.6 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -54,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 48.3 9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.6 46.2 13.7
– Net Position: 25,727 26,794 -52,521
– Gross Longs: 290,414 619,891 123,007
– Gross Shorts: 264,687 593,097 175,528
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.5 85.7 40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.0 14.0 1.2

 


SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 211,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 45.5 8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 70.8 4.9
– Net Position: 199,223 -230,769 31,546
– Gross Longs: 284,974 414,856 76,675
– Gross Shorts: 85,751 645,625 45,129
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.3 39.1 43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.4 5.4 4.4

 


COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 47.0 3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 51.4 3.9
– Net Position: 8,495 -8,052 -443
– Gross Longs: 42,190 84,606 6,662
– Gross Shorts: 33,695 92,658 7,105
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.1 67.9 7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.1 24.0 -19.8

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 52.9 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.6 63.1 10.0
– Net Position: 83,463 -63,652 -19,811
– Gross Longs: 150,115 332,610 42,925
– Gross Shorts: 66,652 396,262 62,736
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.0 74.8 53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.2 5.7 4.2

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.3 52.9 7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.9 65.2 5.1
– Net Position: 49,836 -59,001 9,165
– Gross Longs: 97,041 253,124 33,351
– Gross Shorts: 47,205 312,125 24,186
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 52.0 47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.9 -11.8 21.3

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 106,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,503 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.0 36.7 10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.0 63.1 5.7
– Net Position: 106,964 -128,313 21,349
– Gross Longs: 126,380 178,840 48,850
– Gross Shorts: 19,416 307,153 27,501
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.0 38.1 51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.3 -8.3 31.7

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 91,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.9 29.3 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.6 54.9 13.2
– Net Position: 91,300 -79,969 -11,331
– Gross Longs: 136,919 91,277 29,710
– Gross Shorts: 45,619 171,246 41,041
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.4 25.0 26.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.7 15.1 -3.4

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 38.8 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.3 34.9 11.0
– Net Position: -5,350 8,478 -3,128
– Gross Longs: 70,436 83,300 20,389
– Gross Shorts: 75,786 74,822 23,517
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.3 78.0 69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.2 -9.6 -1.9

 


COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 44.7 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.8 68.0 3.3
– Net Position: 41,144 -49,959 8,815
– Gross Longs: 77,078 95,591 15,971
– Gross Shorts: 35,934 145,550 7,156
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 56.5 69.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.2 -35.4 57.3

 


COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 79,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.7 26.6 3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.8 54.2 2.8
– Net Position: 79,502 -81,601 2,099
– Gross Longs: 138,107 78,506 10,371
– Gross Shorts: 58,605 160,107 8,272
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.7 17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 -6.4 -21.7

 


WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.8 37.0 9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.4 29.5 10.4
– Net Position: -22,794 25,578 -2,784
– Gross Longs: 105,903 127,107 32,948
– Gross Shorts: 128,697 101,529 35,732
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.6 49.4 62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.3 -20.6 4.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

contributors

Share
Published by
contributors

Recent Posts

US Dollar Index Speculator bets rise for 1st time in 7 weeks, AUD bets plunge

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

11 hours ago

Speculator Extremes: New Zealand Dollar, Euro & CAD lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro  The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released…

2 days ago

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

2 days ago

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

2 days ago

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Live Cattle, Lean Hogs & Coffee

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

2 days ago

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

2 days ago

This website uses cookies.