Soft Commodities COT Charts: February 21st data showed Speculators boosted bets of Cocoa & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is still a few weeks behind the current data because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC has back-filled some data over the past few weeks and will get the data back up to date in the coming weeks.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher that week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cocoa (17,227 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,584 contracts) with Coffee (7,266 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,105 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,600 contracts), Live Cattle (3,446 contracts) and Soybeans (1,374 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Corn (-21,689 contracts) with Wheat (-13,364 contracts), Cotton (-14,119 contracts) and Sugar (-5,488 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Strength Scores were led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (100 percent) led the softs markets on February 21st. Sugar (74 percent), Cocoa (69 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (1 percent), Cotton (5 percent) and Lean Hogs (10 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Soybean Oil (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.0 percent)
Sugar (74.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (76.0 percent)
Coffee (40.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (32.6 percent)
Soybeans (67.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (66.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (23.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (98.1 percent)
Live Cattle (100.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (96.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (10.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.0 percent)
Cotton (5.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.8 percent)
Cocoa (69.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.4 percent)
Wheat (0.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.9 percent)

 

Coffee & Live Cattle topped the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (28 percent) and Live Cattle (28 percent) led the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (21 percent), Soybeans (20 percent) and Sugar (16 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26 percent) led the downside trend scores that week with Soybean Oil (-18 percent), Cotton (-16 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.8 percent)
Sugar (15.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.6 percent)
Coffee (27.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.0 percent)
Soybeans (19.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (16.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.3 percent)
Live Cattle (27.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-25.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-53.0 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.1 percent)
Cocoa (20.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.1 percent)
Wheat (-8.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing equaled a net position of 283,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -21,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 304,712 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	41.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	57.5	14.0
– Net Position:	283,023	-209,635	-73,388
– Gross Longs:	414,502	561,129	114,376
– Gross Shorts:	131,479	770,764	187,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	42.0	5.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-3.8	-16.1

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing equaled a net position of 233,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly fall of -5,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,826 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	39.5	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	69.5	5.6
– Net Position:	233,338	-277,742	44,404
– Gross Longs:	317,876	366,001	95,884
– Gross Shorts:	84,538	643,743	51,480
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	23.5	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-13.0	-0.5

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 12,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 7,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,050 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	46.2	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	53.5	4.1
– Net Position:	12,316	-14,198	1,882
– Gross Longs:	44,122	90,640	10,018
– Gross Shorts:	31,806	104,838	8,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	61.8	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.7	-25.4	-21.6

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 193,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,886 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	45.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	65.7	12.4
– Net Position:	193,260	-150,141	-43,119
– Gross Longs:	239,615	330,719	47,851
– Gross Shorts:	46,355	480,860	90,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	44.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-15.9	-11.6

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 36,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,177 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	52.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	63.1	5.2
– Net Position:	36,282	-46,887	10,605
– Gross Longs:	86,110	240,461	34,271
– Gross Shorts:	49,828	287,348	23,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	70.7	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	15.4	5.0

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 175,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 3,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,351 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.5	33.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.1	75.6	7.0
– Net Position:	175,951	-191,708	15,757
– Gross Longs:	190,333	154,817	48,064
– Gross Shorts:	14,382	346,525	32,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	13.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-6.0	-36.7

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 104,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 3,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,828 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	23.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	51.6	13.1
– Net Position:	104,274	-95,188	-9,086
– Gross Longs:	151,310	78,368	35,012
– Gross Shorts:	47,036	173,556	44,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.6	-26.0	-11.4

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 1,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,880 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	35.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	33.8	12.9
– Net Position:	1,704	2,763	-4,467
– Gross Longs:	65,678	74,070	22,814
– Gross Shorts:	63,974	71,307	27,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.2	94.8	74.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	25.6	10.2

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -2,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -14,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,150 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	51.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	49.9	6.4
– Net Position:	-2,969	2,542	427
– Gross Longs:	51,460	94,938	12,306
– Gross Shorts:	54,429	92,396	11,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.0	94.7	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	15.7	-10.1

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 46,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly increase of 17,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,858 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	39.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	57.4	3.0
– Net Position:	46,085	-51,594	5,509
– Gross Longs:	105,772	117,967	14,353
– Gross Shorts:	59,687	169,561	8,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	27.1	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-23.2	15.4

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -47,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -13,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,124 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	39.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	25.8	10.3
– Net Position:	-47,488	47,552	-64
– Gross Longs:	92,453	140,224	36,892
– Gross Shorts:	139,941	92,672	36,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	96.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	4.7	17.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.