By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT energy market speculator bets were a little higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.
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Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (12,821 contracts) with Gasoline (1,481 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (1,120 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-9,996 contracts) with Heating Oil (-1,967 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Sep-20-2022 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,481,545 | 1 | 239,878 | 8 | -261,568 | 94 | 21,690 | 36 |
| Gold | 469,395 | 5 | 65,722 | 0 | -75,428 | 100 | 9,706 | 0 |
| Silver | 132,107 | 0 | -1,640 | 12 | -5,629 | 90 | 7,269 | 4 |
| Copper | 163,058 | 4 | -20,286 | 22 | 23,215 | 82 | -2,929 | 8 |
| Palladium | 5,993 | 1 | -1,081 | 17 | 1,261 | 82 | -180 | 33 |
| Platinum | 62,900 | 27 | 2,390 | 12 | -5,496 | 89 | 3,106 | 5 |
| Natural Gas | 960,236 | 1 | -155,711 | 32 | 121,308 | 69 | 34,403 | 62 |
| Brent | 164,025 | 11 | -37,903 | 48 | 36,732 | 54 | 1,171 | 25 |
| Heating Oil | 292,634 | 32 | 14,097 | 63 | -25,941 | 44 | 11,844 | 39 |
| Soybeans | 656,310 | 18 | 84,773 | 39 | -55,485 | 70 | -29,288 | 22 |
| Corn | 1,330,841 | 9 | 305,677 | 69 | -241,238 | 38 | -64,439 | 6 |
| Coffee | 191,433 | 5 | 41,072 | 74 | -42,998 | 30 | 1,926 | 17 |
| Sugar | 744,972 | 8 | 37,345 | 44 | -35,860 | 61 | -1,485 | 6 |
| Wheat | 285,567 | 0 | -4,029 | 14 | 9,982 | 74 | -5,953 | 80 |
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) and Heating Oil (63.2 percent) lead the energy category this week and are the only two markets above their midpoint of the past three years (50 percent).
On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (19.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent). Natural Gas (31.8 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) are the next lowest strength scores.
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (4.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (45.7 percent)
Natural Gas (31.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (34.8 percent)
Gasoline (19.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.6 percent)
Heating Oil (63.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (66.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (67.6 percent)
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.
Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent).
Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-10.5 percent)
Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.2 percent)
Gasoline (1.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-5.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-8.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (8.4 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.1 | 39.8 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 6.9 | 57.4 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | 239,878 | -261,568 | 21,690 |
| – Gross Longs: | 342,588 | 589,445 | 73,243 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 102,710 | 851,013 | 51,553 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 7.7 | 93.7 | 36.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.7 | -6.3 | -9.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.6 | 53.7 | 4.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.8 | 31.3 | 4.0 |
| – Net Position: | -37,903 | 36,732 | 1,171 |
| – Gross Longs: | 25,663 | 88,006 | 7,706 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,566 | 51,274 | 6,535 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 47.6 | 54.4 | 25.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.2 | 7.2 | -8.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.9 | 43.5 | 6.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.2 | 30.8 | 3.3 |
| – Net Position: | -155,711 | 121,308 | 34,403 |
| – Gross Longs: | 153,110 | 417,431 | 66,185 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 308,821 | 296,123 | 31,782 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.8 | 69.2 | 61.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.1 | 10.9 | -10.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.5 | 49.6 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.1 | 68.5 | 6.8 |
| – Net Position: | 47,073 | -48,192 | 1,119 |
| – Gross Longs: | 77,904 | 126,887 | 18,448 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 30,831 | 175,079 | 17,329 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.5 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 19.1 | 85.1 | 20.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.6 | 2.0 | -24.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.8 | 54.7 | 13.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.0 | 63.6 | 9.3 |
| – Net Position: | 14,097 | -25,941 | 11,844 |
| – Gross Longs: | 40,428 | 160,165 | 39,038 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,331 | 186,106 | 27,194 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.2 | 43.6 | 39.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.3 | 11.2 | -0.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.2 | 70.0 | 0.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 40.3 | 55.3 | 0.1 |
| – Net Position: | -10,317 | 10,031 | 286 |
| – Gross Longs: | 17,200 | 47,853 | 361 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 27,517 | 37,822 | 75 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 4.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.0 | 31.9 | 20.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.9 | -9.0 | 0.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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