COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets trend lower led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

September 11, 2022

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes go lower led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (3,150 contracts) with Live Cattle (3,099 contracts) and Wheat (1,740 contracts) also showing positive weeks.


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The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-9,054 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-6,858 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,176 contracts), Sugar (-4,780 contracts), Cocoa (-3,847 contracts), Soybeans (-2,311 contracts), Coffee (-1,519 contracts) and Cotton (-1,055 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,480,320 1 214,478 1 -240,417 99 25,939 43
Gold 465,908 4 103,857 4 -114,064 98 10,207 0
Silver 138,300 5 -12,784 0 5,055 100 7,729 6
Copper 160,251 2 -23,990 19 26,820 84 -2,830 9
Palladium 6,065 1 -1,602 14 2,129 87 -527 13
Platinum 78,610 53 -6,751 0 3,152 100 3,599 12
Natural Gas 984,642 5 -138,638 37 105,802 64 32,836 58
Brent 163,666 11 -36,388 50 32,508 47 3,880 62
Heating Oil 280,210 27 17,860 69 -36,089 33 18,229 62
Soybeans 606,187 7 81,251 38 -50,826 71 -30,425 20
Corn 1,280,087 2 286,547 67 -230,702 39 -55,845 11
Coffee 193,938 7 47,168 80 -49,276 25 2,108 19
Sugar 760,601 11 57,771 49 -61,944 56 4,173 13
Wheat 289,329 0 -9,759 6 13,677 79 -3,918 90

 


Soybean Meal and Coffee lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (87.1 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position with a score above 80 percent. Coffee (79.6 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores followed by Corn (66.6 percent) and Live Cattle (58.1 percent).

On the downside, Wheat (6.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and remains as the only market in a bearish extreme level with a score under 20 percent. The next lowest is Cocoa (21.3 percent) followed by Soybean Oil (36.4 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (66.2 percent)
Sugar (48.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (49.5 percent)
Coffee (79.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (80.9 percent)
Soybeans (38.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (39.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (87.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.2 percent)
Live Cattle (58.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (54.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (53.8 percent)
Cotton (51.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.9 percent)
Cocoa (21.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (25.1 percent)
Wheat (6.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (4.1 percent)

Live Cattle and Soybean Oil at top of Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (33.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Oil (19.1 percent), Coffee (16.0 percent) and Corn (12.8 percent) fill out the next highest movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-12.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Sugar (-1.3 percent) followed by Soybeans at -1.2 percent.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.4 percent)
Sugar (-1.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.3 percent)
Coffee (16.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.9 percent)
Soybeans (-1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.6 percent)
Live Cattle (33.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (47.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (14.8 percent)
Cotton (8.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.7 percent)
Cocoa (1.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.8 percent)
Wheat (-12.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-23.5 percent)


Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 286,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 46.1 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 64.2 13.5
– Net Position: 286,547 -230,702 -55,845
– Gross Longs: 406,895 590,573 116,649
– Gross Shorts: 120,348 821,275 172,494
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.6 39.0 10.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.8 -13.1 -4.7

 


SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 57,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 53.9 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 62.0 7.8
– Net Position: 57,771 -61,944 4,173
– Gross Longs: 178,344 409,718 63,249
– Gross Shorts: 120,573 471,662 59,076
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.5 56.4 13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.3 0.7 3.1

 


COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 47,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5 45.4 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 70.8 3.7
– Net Position: 47,168 -49,276 2,108
– Gross Longs: 59,224 88,013 9,278
– Gross Shorts: 12,056 137,289 7,170
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.6 24.5 18.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -18.5 17.2

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 81,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.1 55.2 6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.6 63.5 11.3
– Net Position: 81,251 -50,826 -30,425
– Gross Longs: 151,858 334,375 37,854
– Gross Shorts: 70,607 385,201 68,279
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 71.1 19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 2.1 -4.7

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 48,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 52.1 8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.4 66.2 6.4
– Net Position: 48,782 -55,146 6,364
– Gross Longs: 81,987 205,203 31,353
– Gross Shorts: 33,205 260,349 24,989
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.4 65.5 37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.1 -19.9 14.6

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 107,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 43.7 11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 76.3 6.5
– Net Position: 107,135 -126,646 19,511
– Gross Longs: 125,905 170,122 44,983
– Gross Shorts: 18,770 296,768 25,472
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.1 17.1 34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.3 -0.1 -1.9

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,731 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 32.3 10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 52.5 11.6
– Net Position: 62,830 -59,885 -2,945
– Gross Longs: 111,433 95,824 31,503
– Gross Shorts: 48,603 155,709 34,448
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 31.3 75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 33.7 -34.3 -6.9

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.3 37.3 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.6 50.8 12.0
– Net Position: 36,341 -29,399 -6,942
– Gross Longs: 79,138 81,384 19,248
– Gross Shorts: 42,797 110,783 26,190
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.3 58.7 60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -2.6 6.7

 


COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 44.7 6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.7 72.0 3.5
– Net Position: 50,712 -57,850 7,138
– Gross Longs: 77,522 94,458 14,536
– Gross Shorts: 26,810 152,308 7,398
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.2 48.6 56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.0 -10.6 31.9

 


COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 47.2 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 49.6 3.6
– Net Position: 4,464 -7,224 2,760
– Gross Longs: 93,816 137,463 13,152
– Gross Shorts: 89,352 144,687 10,392
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.3 80.4 24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -2.1 10.4

 


WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 41.9 10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.0 37.2 11.4
– Net Position: -9,759 13,677 -3,918
– Gross Longs: 88,611 121,265 29,169
– Gross Shorts: 98,370 107,588 33,087
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.4 79.1 90.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.7 8.0 21.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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