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COT Week 22 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Corn & Sugar

June 4, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soft Commodities speculator bets were mostly lower again this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Coffee (5,943 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,859 contracts) with Cocoa (1,570 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-23,648 contracts) and Sugar (-7,807 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-4,455 contracts), Wheat (-4,035 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,207 contracts), Soybeans (-2,290 contracts), Cotton (-1,836 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,153 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the softs markets are above their midpoints (50 percent) for the past 3 years as the soft commodities have been highly bid and have had strong speculator sentiment.

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Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that despite most of the softs markets having high speculator strength scores, there has been a cool-off for these markets over the past six weeks. Live cattle and lean hogs have seen the most weakness over the past six weeks followed by Cocoa and Soybean Meal.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,787,928 9 332,976 10 -373,761 91 40,785 72
Gold 513,722 18 172,589 5 -200,056 95 27,467 32
Silver 147,301 14 13,997 15 -23,861 99 9,864 6
Copper 189,923 19 -18,025 29 15,425 70 2,600 40
Palladium 6,538 1 -3,133 4 3,221 95 -88 39
Platinum 67,964 35 2,363 7 -6,501 96 4,138 20
Natural Gas 1,115,815 7 -110,368 45 59,679 50 50,689 100
Brent 181,699 25 -40,872 43 38,941 58 1,931 35
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 753,373 34 186,078 71 -158,757 34 -27,321 25
Corn 1,564,217 32 404,200 82 -353,348 22 -50,852 14
Coffee 214,170 8 43,015 76 -45,757 28 2,742 17
Sugar 848,463 11 201,680 78 -240,752 23 39,072 56
Wheat 331,136 11 22,309 48 -18,647 33 -3,662 91

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 404,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 427,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 42.1 9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 64.6 12.2
– Net Position: 404,200 -353,348 -50,852
– Gross Longs: 551,849 657,849 140,307
– Gross Shorts: 147,649 1,011,197 191,159
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.7 21.6 13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.3 14.6 -3.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 201,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 209,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 45.1 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 73.5 5.9
– Net Position: 201,680 -240,752 39,072
– Gross Longs: 259,634 382,461 89,391
– Gross Shorts: 57,954 623,213 50,319
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.1 22.5 56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 10.4 -20.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 51.5 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.4 72.9 3.1
– Net Position: 43,015 -45,757 2,742
– Gross Longs: 50,242 110,322 9,389
– Gross Shorts: 7,227 156,079 6,647
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.0 27.7 17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -0.3 -9.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 186,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 188,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.6 47.3 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 68.3 10.2
– Net Position: 186,078 -158,757 -27,321
– Gross Longs: 237,836 356,115 49,891
– Gross Shorts: 51,758 514,872 77,212
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.9 34.4 24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.3 4.6 -3.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 75,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.4 47.5 9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.8 71.6 4.8
– Net Position: 75,041 -92,287 17,246
– Gross Longs: 105,091 181,857 35,597
– Gross Shorts: 30,050 274,144 18,351
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.7 40.2 77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.3 21.0 -18.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 44.2 13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 73.7 5.5
– Net Position: 80,754 -109,384 28,630
– Gross Longs: 106,453 163,966 48,928
– Gross Shorts: 25,699 273,350 20,298
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.4 26.1 81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.4 23.7 -17.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 40.6 11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 46.8 11.9
– Net Position: 19,540 -18,566 -974
– Gross Longs: 102,315 121,350 34,613
– Gross Shorts: 82,775 139,916 35,587
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.9 87.9 78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.9 37.4 26.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 42.0 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.8 43.2 13.3
– Net Position: 9,217 -2,209 -7,008
– Gross Longs: 57,323 81,465 18,708
– Gross Shorts: 48,106 83,674 25,716
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.8 90.9 60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.8 42.6 -11.8

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,520 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 37.9 8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.2 76.0 3.3
– Net Position: 70,684 -80,864 10,180
– Gross Longs: 85,974 80,446 17,230
– Gross Shorts: 15,290 161,310 7,050
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 30.7 76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.2 10.1 -17.8

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,583 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.4 43.0 5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 47.7 4.2
– Net Position: 10,153 -14,322 4,169
– Gross Longs: 92,946 131,539 16,931
– Gross Shorts: 82,793 145,861 12,762
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.6 72.0 38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 28.0 -25.8

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,344 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.4 35.5 9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 41.1 11.0
– Net Position: 22,309 -18,647 -3,662
– Gross Longs: 113,964 117,565 32,778
– Gross Shorts: 91,655 136,212 36,440
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.1 33.1 91.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 2.5 -4.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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