COT Energy Speculators push Natural Gas bearish bets to 6-week high

February 19, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the large decline in this week’s Natural Gas futures bets. The speculative net position in the Natural Gas futures dropped this week by -16,335 contracts which marks the largest one-week amount since September. Speculators had been reducing their bearish bets in previous weeks with decreases in bearish bets in five out of the previous six weeks before this week’s rise in bearish bets. Overall, the Natural Gas speculator positions are now at the most bearish standing of the past six weeks.

Joining Natural Gas (-16,335 contracts) in falling this week were Brent Crude Oil (-2 contracts), WTI Crude Oil (-15,290 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-156 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-4,573 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,122,758 39 348,093 8 -392,000 80 43,907 77
Gold 558,645 35 213,613 56 -238,875 45 25,262 36
Silver 156,968 23 23,556 46 -36,348 63 12,792 17
Copper 210,089 34 30,692 64 -39,421 32 8,729 76
Palladium 8,358 9 -1,000 15 903 83 97 50
Platinum 59,897 22 10,132 16 -16,020 86 5,888 44
Natural Gas 1,098,101 0 -131,424 39 99,903 62 31,521 59
Brent 214,404 51 -26,325 73 22,279 27 4,046 64
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 856,917 58 216,732 84 -186,438 22 -30,294 20
Corn 1,607,591 39 414,492 83 -374,969 19 -39,523 20
Coffee 254,992 25 70,425 100 -75,230 1 4,805 22
Sugar 871,213 11 74,563 52 -90,388 51 15,825 27
Wheat 402,232 35 -5,846 42 10,013 51 -4,167 82

 


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WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 348,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 363,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.6 36.1 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 54.6 2.8
– Net Position: 348,093 -392,000 43,907
– Gross Longs: 458,819 767,338 102,736
– Gross Shorts: 110,726 1,159,338 58,829
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.8 79.9 76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.8 -8.1 9.6

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.6 47.7 4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.9 37.3 2.8
– Net Position: -26,325 22,279 4,046
– Gross Longs: 37,767 102,255 10,006
– Gross Shorts: 64,092 79,976 5,960
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.6 26.7 63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.4 26.7 -3.0

 


Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -131,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.4 44.4 5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.3 35.3 2.2
– Net Position: -131,424 99,903 31,521
– Gross Longs: 234,678 487,701 55,830
– Gross Shorts: 366,102 387,798 24,309
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.1 62.4 58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -3.2 -0.7

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.9 50.7 6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 68.8 3.8
– Net Position: 62,596 -72,742 10,146
– Gross Longs: 108,035 203,940 25,503
– Gross Shorts: 45,439 276,682 15,357
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.8 64.2 72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 -2.3 24.0

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9
– Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979
– Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210
– Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -17,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.7 34.5 1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.1 1.3 0.2
– Net Position: -17,041 16,437 604
– Gross Longs: 30,521 17,060 700
– Gross Shorts: 47,562 623 96
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 27.4 to 1 7.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 56.5 40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 8.4 -59.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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