InvestMacro

Stock indices are under pressure from inflation. Investors are hedging with gold

The US stock indexes recorded their most significant weekly percentage decline since January and fell sharply Friday after the May inflation report dashed hopes that price pressures may have peaked. Data released on Friday showed that US consumer inflation jumped to 8.6% y/y in May, the biggest gain since 1981. Gasoline prices hit a record high, and the cost of food rose sharply. The core Consumer Price Index (which excludes food and fuel prices) failed to fall below 6.0%. Rapid price pressures force consumers to change their spending habits, heightening recession fears. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for June also hit a new record, falling to 50.2 from 58.1. This situation caused the dollar index to spike and stock indices to fall. At the closing of the stock exchange on Friday Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.73% (-4.96% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) fell by 2.91% (-5.66% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 3.52% (-7.05% for the week). All three indices were down for the week.

Equity markets in Europe also declined on Friday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 3.08% (-5.59% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR 40) lost 2.69% (-5.30% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 3.68% (-4.51% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was down by 2.12% (-2.86% for the week). The markets are under the pressure of the fears that inflation growth and an increase in interest rates will lead to recession not only in the United States but also in the Eurozone. On Friday, Spain published its annual inflation data showing an increase from 8.3% to 8.7%. German, French, and Italian inflation data will also be released this week, followed by an overall figure for the Eurozone at the end of the week.

Gold futures rose sharply on Friday after US inflation data. Under the classical scheme, investors started shifting assets into the “yellow” metal “if inflation goes up, buy gold.” But it should be noted that this growth has no fundamental support because the US Federal Reserve pursues a tightening policy, which usually has a negative impact on precious metal prices. That’s because gold is inversely correlated with US government bond yields, which tend to rise amid rising interest rates.

European countries bought a record amount of Russian palladium in March. Purchases took place against the backdrop of sanctions and logistical problems. MMC Norilsk Nickel is the world’s largest supplier of palladium. In Germany, there is one of the company’s main customers – BASF SE concern. Palladium is used to produce car catalysts. Russian palladium can be replaced by platinum, but this will require considerable investment in research institutes.

Oil prices dropped more than 2 dollars on Friday and continued to decline Monday as the outbreak of COVID-19 disease in Beijing stifled hopes for a rapid increase in fuel demand in China. At the same time, concerns about global inflation and sluggish economic growth further exacerbated the market decline. On Friday, Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.7% to $119.95 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by 1.8% to $118.54 a barrel. China remains a significant downside risk in the near term. Still, most view the gradual normalization of Chinese demand as a strong positive for oil, as current demand is far from reflecting normal conditions.

Asian markets traded flat. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.00% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.46% for last week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) decreased by 4.24% for the week. At the opening of trading on Monday, Asian stock indexes started declining amid risks from the US Consumer Price Index and China’s fight against COVID. Beijing’s most populous Chaoyang district announced three rounds of mass testing on Sunday to quell the COVID-19 outbreak. Beijing also postponed opening the city’s schools, which had been scheduled for Monday. Shanghai, another Chinese metropolis, also faced tighter restrictions over the weekend, with many establishments suspending food services. The new lockdowns in Shanghai came just 12 days after the city emerged from a months-long lockdown in early June.

In the commodities market, futures on corn (+6.36%), cotton (+5.36%), wheat (+3.1%), soybeans (+2.96%), and natural gas (+2.72%) showed the biggest gains in by the end of the week. Futures on lumber (-10.80%), platinum (-4.37%), copper (-4.33%), palladium (-3.32%) and sugar (-2.28%) showed the biggest drops.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,900.86 −116.96 (−2.91%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,392.79 −880.00 (−2.73%)

DAX (DE40) 13,761.83 −436.97 (−3.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,317.52 −158.69 (−2.12%)

USD Index 104.19 +0.97 (+0.94%)

Important events for today:

– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Brainard Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

13 Jun

Why a new eurozone crisis now looks a distinct possibility

By Muhammad Ali Nasir, University of Leeds

– The European Central Bank (ECB) has confirmed speculation that it will become the latest central bank to start raising headline interest rates to try to ward off inflation. The bank is to raise rates by 0.25 points to 0.25% for lending and -0.25% for deposits, with plans for another rise at the next meeting in September. It will also curtail its programme for buying the government bonds of countries like Italy and Greece by not increasing purchases every month overall.

All major economies are struggling with the difficulties of trying to deal with inflation by raising interest rates in the knowledge that it will drive up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses and potentially bring about a recession.

But for the eurozone, the situation is complicated by the fact that it has been propping up indebted countries who can’t deflate their currencies to get through economic turbulence. If the ECB now gets too tough on inflation, it could create a market panic that might revive the eurozone crisis of the 2010s.

Stagflation is back

The global outlook for inflation and global economic stability has significantly deteriorated in the last few months. In 2021 inflation headed upwards as global demand recovered after the pandemic but supply chains couldn’t keep up – not least because of China’s zero COVID policy. Rising energy prices were a major part of the problem.

Many central bankers thought this was temporary, and indeed when inflation started to ease in most developed economies in the second half of 2021, this seemed right. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has both broken the decades-long peace in Europe, and brought three decades of a “great moderation” in prices to an end. Thanks to the extra pressure on oil and energy prices, inflation is many countries is now rising ahead of economic growth.

Inflation is also starting to weigh on the global economy in various ways. People have less money, so they can’t buy as much. And investors are more worried about the outlook, so they are more reluctant to invest. The prospects for global economic growth have significantly slowed since February. For example, the World Bank has just downgraded its forecast for the third time in six months, and currently predicts 2.9% growth in 2022.

The effect on government bonds

In view of this situation, investors have also been offloading corporate and government bonds. They fear that the prospects for debt defaults are higher than before, and the returns (yields) on bonds look even worse than before now that inflation is so high. Bond prices have duly been falling, which means that yields (interest rates) have been rising because they are inversely related.

The yields on eurozone countries’ debt have been rising sharply, meaning it is becoming more expensive for them to borrow. Just like in the 2010s, the most pressure is on the countries whose public finances are the most unwieldy, such as Italy and Greece. But even Germany, which has been the bedrock of eurozone fiscal prudence and has enjoyed negative yields (also known as free borrowing) for most of the last three years, has also seen a significant rise.

Eurozone sovereign bond yields 2012-22

Chart showing yields of 10-year sovereign bonds — 10-year bond yields: Germany = yellow; Greece = turquoise; Italy = blue; Portugal = indigo; France = purple; Spain = orange.
Trading View

The eurozone crisis was caused in the early 2010s when investor fears about the solvency of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland drove their bond yields to levels where they needed ECB support – otherwise, their debts would have become unmanageable and they would likely have had to exit the euro.

This support came in the form of loans; bond-buying programmes from the European Central Bank (ECB) to prop up prices; negative interest rates; “creating” euros via quantitative easing (QE); and reassurances from then president Mario Draghi that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to prevent a collapse.

These measures are the main reason why bond yields have remained below ruinous levels since the 2010s, with bond-buying support and QE most recently provided early in the pandemic as countries had to borrow even more to cope. The ECB is currently sitting on government bonds from member states worth around €5 trillion (£4.3 trillion), and is currently making net purchases of over €30 billion a month.

Now that yields are surging again, one solution is for the ECB to buy even more bonds from these countries. However, it is not that simple because bond-buying underpinned by QE is another reason for inflation rising. Indeed, one of the other arguments in favour of these moves in the 2010s was to ward off deflation, which is not a valid justification now that inflation is so high. Bond-buying now would be a violation of the ECB’s strategy aiming for 2% inflation.

Were it to drive up inflation, that would make the economic outlook even worse. This could cause further sell-offs in bonds that would push yields higher.

Instead, the ECB is following the likes of the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England and doing the opposite. The danger with increasing interest rates and ending bond-buying is that it will hurt the economy, which could make investors more worried about the outlook and force bond yields even higher. Indeed, yields have just surged after the ECB signalled that it was potentially open to doing a 0.5 percentage points hike in rates in September, in a sign of how precarious this situation is.

In sum, the ECB is facing a strange dilemma, where every policy choice will potentially raise the risks of a repeat of the eurozone crisis of the 2010s. Inflation is a delicate business, which is why the Austrian economist Fridrich von Hayek compared it to trying to “catch a tiger by its tail”.

If inflation starts to fall as growth deteriorates, the eurozone may somehow avoid another crisis because it will then be easier to do more QE and buy more bonds. But in the meantime, all eyes will be on the bond yields of countries like Italy and Greece to see how high they rise.

About the Author:

Muhammad Ali Nasir, Associate Professor in Economics, University of Leeds

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

13 Jun

Top Technical Tool: Japanese Candlesticks

How to spot trade setups using this tool

By Elliott Wave International

You may be familiar with an Open-High-Low-Close (OHLC) chart: comprised of vertical lines with small horizontal lines on each side. The top of each vertical line is the high and the bottom is the low. The small horizontal lines on either side represent the open and close for that period.

A Japanese Candlestick chart is similar. It allows you to zoom in and analyze a single period’s worth of price action.

Here’s an example of a Japanese Candlestick chart:

Japanese Candlestick charts employ the same data that OHLC price charts do except that the data is expressed differently. The real body is the range between the open and close, and appears as a small block. Shadows are the lines that extend upward and downward from this block, and represent the highs and lows.

Candlestick analysis can help alert you to reversals. Two bearish candlestick reversal patterns that Elliott Wave International’s (EWI) analysts find highly reliable are Bearish Engulfing patterns and Evening Star patterns. A Bearish Engulfing pattern means that the close is below the open, and the real body encompasses the real body of the prior candle. On a daily chart, it portends further decline for the next three to five days. An Evening Star pattern consists of three candles – a large bullish candlestick, a small-bodied candle and a red candle. It signals that the uptrend is nearing its end.

,p>You can combine Japanese Candlesticks with other tools in order to get a high-confidence view. This weekly continuation chart for the Canadian dollar combines a 20-period moving average to show that the trend is down — allowing you to focus on bearish reversal candlestick patterns to spot trading opportunities.

EWI’s senior instructor Jeffrey Kennedy notes that “combining these reversal patterns with moving averages makes them even more dynamic because they focus your attention in the direction of the larger trend.”

One of the best ways to get an edge in trading is to hand-pick a few select tools for your arsenal. Japanese Candlesticks are one such tool. In skilled hands, they can really show you the trend and alert you to trend reversals.

Free for a limited time, you can get full access to EWI’s premium course on candlesticks to help you add another arrow in your quiver. This course, “Japanese Candlesticks Made Simple and Effective” normally sells for $99.

You need to simply enter the Partner Referral Code CANDLES once you click on the link below and join free Club EWI to gain access to this free course.

Learn how to use candlesticks as a simple, effective trading and risk-management tool now (Partner Referral Code: CANDLES).

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline . EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

13 Jun

Interest rate hikes are a blunt yet dangerous weapon in inflation fight

By George Prior

Interest rates hikes are a “blunt yet dangerous weapon” in the fight against scorching hot inflation, which is hitting low-income households the hardest, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as the average global inflation rate reaches 7.4%.

In the U.S., UK and Germany, inflation has risen to the highest rate for 40 years. Consumer price growth has even begun surging across Asia, a region that until recently had largely been able to avoid the broad-based global trend.

Inflation in Latin America’s largest economies is the highest it’s been in 15 years; the overall rate in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow to 12.2% this year; the Netherlands this year nearly tripled to 9.2%; and Australia’s has doubled to 5.3%.

Nigel Green says: “Inflation is a serious global problem. There are real fears of a return to the chronic inflation and recessionary landscapes of the 1970s.

“In an attempt to tackle the scourge of surging prices, central banks around the world are hiking interest rates. According to the theory, when interest rates are higher less money will be spent. When less money is being spent, prices for consumer goods rise more slowly.

“But raising interest rates is a blunt weapon in this fight.

“Hiking borrowing costs can only do so much to address the triggers of inflation on the supply side of economies, like unprecedented shipping backlogs or shortages of materials and labour, Covid lockdowns in China, and the war in Ukraine.”

He continues: “Raising interest rates to fight inflation is also a dangerous weapon too.

“Inflation is hitting lower and middle-income families up to a third harder than the richest ones, according to research, because they need to spend a higher proportion of their income spent on essentials such as food and energy.”

Clearly, something needs to be done to shield the poorest families from the worst effects of rising prices.

“However, hiking interest rates may not be the solution? Why? Because lower-income households are the ones most likely to have credit – and higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs,” says the deVere Group CEO.

“In addition, it intentionally slows the economy which might then trigger a recession and stunt companies’ efforts to invest and create jobs which, again, would have a greater negative financial impact on poorer families.”

Nigel Green concludes: “The most effective weapons in the fight against inflation are not within the remit of central banks.

“The best measures lie in getting a conclusive international grip on the pandemic, stopping the war in Ukraine, solving supply-chain problems, and significantly ramping up the production of green energy – energy demand is only set to increase over time and interest rate hikes will not be enough to dampen demand.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Jun

COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

COT Currencies market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for currency markets was the Canadian dollar (5,945 contracts) and the Swiss franc (4,326 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,295 contracts), Japanese yen (2,793 contracts), Brazil real (1,389 contracts), Australian dollar (786 contracts), US Dollar Index (400 contracts) and Bitcoin (87 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Mexican peso (-2,723 contracts) and Euro (-1,729 contracts) with New Zealand dollar (-1,047 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators Notes:

US Dollar Index speculator bets have continued their upward climb in four out of the past five weeks as well as nine out of the past twelve weeks. USD Index remains in an extreme-bullish strength level and is very close (currently +37,938 contracts) to the highest net speculator position (+39,078 contracts on January 4th) of this recent bullish cycle, emphasizing the strong speculator bias.
The Euro speculator position saw a pullback this week (-1,729 contracts) after huge gains in the previous three weeks (+58,650 contracts). Speculator sentiment is still pretty strong currently (+50,543 contracts) despite a very weak exchange rate (EURUSD at 1.0524 to close the week) and weak outlook for the Eurozone economy with rising inflation.
British pound sterling speculator sentiment has crumbled in the past few months. The net speculator position managed to poke its head above its negative bias on February 15th with a total of +2,237 net contracts but sentiment has deteriorated since. From February 22nd to this week, speculator bets have dropped by a total of -73,047 contracts and recently hit a 139-week low on May 24th, the lowest level of speculator sentiment dating back to September of 2019.
Japanese yen speculator positions are the most bearish of the major currencies just under -100,000 contracts. The USDJPY exchange rate is at a 20-year high and there has been no sign that the BOJ is interest in raising interest rates while other central banks commit to higher rates. These factors seem to say that the rout of the yen will continue ahead for some time (but how far can it go?).
Commodity currency speculator bets are on the defensive lately. Australian dollar spec bets have fallen in five out of the past six weeks.
Canadian dollar bets are now in bearish territory for a 5th straight week.
New Zealand dollar speculator positions have declined in six out of the past seven weeks and the net position has now fallen to the lowest level since March of 2020

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Brazilian Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are all in extreme-bullish levels at the current moment. On the opposite end of the extreme spectrum, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are very weak in relative speculator sentiment and sit in the extreme-bearish levels.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the commodity currencies have been losing sentiment over the last six weeks. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have all had changes of at least -18.8 percent in their strength scores with the New Zealand dollar leading the decline with a -33.3 percent drop in six weeks. The US Dollar Index, Euro and Mexican Peso have had small but rising scores over the past six weeks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-07-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	65,163	100	37,938	91	-41,863	5	3,925	59
EUR	730,667	95	50,543	51	-88,189	51	37,646	37
GBP	258,623	76	-70,810	23	80,465	77	-9,655	36
JPY	266,054	100	-91,646	12	109,109	89	-17,463	18
CHF	49,794	41	-16,132	16	27,216	87	-11,084	20
CAD	167,373	42	-1,062	40	-13,401	58	14,463	59
AUD	166,422	57	-47,896	40	47,413	54	483	54
NZD	63,540	70	-19,771	38	22,681	65	-2,910	19
MXN	248,184	72	32,726	41	-38,117	57	5,391	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	72,371	70	46,705	96	-48,954	4	2,249	91
Bitcoin	10,990	58	490	93	-529	0	39	14

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.1	3.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	67.5	2.8
– Net Position:	37,938	-41,863	3,925
– Gross Longs:	55,460	2,090	5,780
– Gross Shorts:	17,522	43,953	1,855
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	5.0	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-8.8	13.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	50.0	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	62.1	7.3
– Net Position:	50,543	-88,189	37,646
– Gross Longs:	230,248	365,628	90,978
– Gross Shorts:	179,705	453,817	53,332
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.0	36.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-11.9	22.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -70,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	74.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	43.0	12.1
– Net Position:	-70,810	80,465	-9,655
– Gross Longs:	34,618	191,742	21,602
– Gross Shorts:	105,428	111,277	31,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	77.3	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	-4.4	17.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	79.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	38.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-91,646	109,109	-17,463
– Gross Longs:	18,466	210,889	23,226
– Gross Shorts:	110,112	101,780	40,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	88.9	18.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-2.8	3.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	69.3	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	14.6	41.1
– Net Position:	-16,132	27,216	-11,084
– Gross Longs:	2,609	34,494	9,378
– Gross Shorts:	18,741	7,278	20,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	86.9	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	2.4	6.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	44.2	22.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	52.2	13.7
– Net Position:	-1,062	-13,401	14,463
– Gross Longs:	39,288	74,044	37,463
– Gross Shorts:	40,350	87,445	23,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.2	57.6	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.8	14.2	9.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	59.9	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.8	31.4	14.2
– Net Position:	-47,896	47,413	483
– Gross Longs:	31,720	99,747	24,197
– Gross Shorts:	79,616	52,334	23,714
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	54.3	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	13.8	4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	69.1	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	33.4	8.6
– Net Position:	-19,771	22,681	-2,910
– Gross Longs:	12,310	43,890	2,538
– Gross Shorts:	32,081	21,209	5,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	65.4	18.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.3	31.2	-4.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	35.4	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	50.8	1.2
– Net Position:	32,726	-38,117	5,391
– Gross Longs:	119,162	87,884	8,441
– Gross Shorts:	86,436	126,001	3,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	56.9	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-6.1	8.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.1	13.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	81.2	2.3
– Net Position:	46,705	-48,954	2,249
– Gross Longs:	58,657	9,780	3,931
– Gross Shorts:	11,952	58,734	1,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.3	3.5	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.2	4.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.5	1.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.1	6.4	9.3
– Net Position:	490	-529	39
– Gross Longs:	8,959	169	1,063
– Gross Shorts:	8,469	698	1,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	21.6	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-6.4	0.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

12 Jun

COT Week 23 Charts: Precious Metals Speculator bets mostly higher lead by Copper & Platinum

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT metals market speculator bets were mostly rising this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while only one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper (14,311 contracts) and Platinum (3,570 contracts) with Silver (3,407 contracts) and Gold (2,679 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, the only market with declines in speculator bets this week was Palladium with a fall of -328 contracts.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that only Copper (39.7 percent) is not in an extreme-bearish position at the current time. Using the Strength Index as a contrarian signal, the metals markets could be at attractive levels depending on the fundamental and technical factors of each market.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that only Platinum has been trending higher over the past six weeks. On the downside, Silver and the Gold have shown the largest downward trends.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-07-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,790,618	10	328,256	8	-369,033	93	40,777	72
Gold	494,130	12	175,268	7	-199,886	95	24,618	18
Silver	148,294	15	17,404	5	-27,990	94	10,586	10
Copper	194,187	22	-3,714	40	879	60	2,835	42
Palladium	7,035	3	-3,461	2	3,581	97	-120	37
Platinum	65,295	31	5,933	12	-9,742	92	3,809	15
Natural Gas	1,127,731	10	-114,342	44	66,419	52	47,923	93
Brent	169,802	16	-36,098	51	34,208	50	1,890	35
Heating Oil	261,651	20	4,886	50	-24,428	45	19,542	66
Soybeans	760,444	35	176,644	68	-148,390	39	-28,254	23
Corn	1,557,167	31	391,264	80	-337,137	24	-54,127	12
Coffee	222,583	15	48,767	81	-51,363	23	2,596	16
Sugar	849,814	12	195,403	77	-234,496	24	39,093	56
Wheat	333,705	12	23,881	50	-19,863	31	-4,018	90

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 175,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,679 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.7	23.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	64.1	3.9
– Net Position:	175,268	-199,886	24,618
– Gross Longs:	270,356	116,965	44,090
– Gross Shorts:	95,088	316,851	19,472
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	95.0	18.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	25.3	-23.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,997 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	36.9	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	55.8	9.8
– Net Position:	17,404	-27,990	10,586
– Gross Longs:	54,899	54,707	25,089
– Gross Shorts:	37,495	82,697	14,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	93.9	10.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.2	26.8	-15.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	51.7	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	51.3	7.1
– Net Position:	-3,714	879	2,835
– Gross Longs:	58,232	100,449	16,646
– Gross Shorts:	61,946	99,570	13,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	60.1	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	2.8	-23.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	41.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	56.0	5.6
– Net Position:	5,933	-9,742	3,809
– Gross Longs:	27,004	26,823	7,479
– Gross Shorts:	21,071	36,565	3,670
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	91.6	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-7.9	-35.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	70.9	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.6	20.0	16.9
– Net Position:	-3,461	3,581	-120
– Gross Longs:	943	4,985	1,072
– Gross Shorts:	4,404	1,404	1,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	96.9	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	8.3	-29.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

12 Jun

COT Week 23 Charts: Bond Speculator bets mostly falling this week led by 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Bond market speculator bets were mostly on the lower side this week as only three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the COT bonds markets was the Eurodollar (208,714 contracts) and the Fed Funds (29,026 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bond (29,533 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (-42,371 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-27,280 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-14,798 contracts), Ultra US Bond (-5,695 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-4,759 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Ultra US Treasury Bond and the US Treasury Bond are above their midpoint levels for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. The US Treasury Bond is actually in an extreme-bullish level currently while the Eurodollar and the Ultra 10-Year Note are both in extreme-bearish levels at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate the 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the 5-Year Bond and the Ultra US Treasury Bond have had the highest rising scores over the past six weeks. On the downside, the 10-Year Bond and the 2-Year Bond have shown the largest downward trends.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-07-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	10,409,834	32	-2,646,502	4	3,023,490	95	-376,988	21
FedFunds	1,568,823	44	54,233	46	-47,932	54	-6,301	44
2-Year	2,002,134	10	-170,489	48	225,040	69	-54,551	26
Long T-Bond	1,193,131	48	4,963	86	-5,633	18	670	53
10-Year	3,469,948	28	-266,187	32	426,524	73	-160,337	42
5-Year	3,784,732	39	-222,547	44	409,463	63	-186,916	30

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,646,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 208,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,855,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.5	74.1	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	45.0	7.4
– Net Position:	-2,646,502	3,023,490	-376,988
– Gross Longs:	367,476	7,712,618	389,949
– Gross Shorts:	3,013,978	4,689,128	766,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	95.1	21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-3.5	14.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,026 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	74.5	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	77.5	3.0
– Net Position:	54,233	-47,932	-6,301
– Gross Longs:	149,853	1,168,089	40,470
– Gross Shorts:	95,620	1,216,021	46,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	54.1	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-2.8	19.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -170,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -42,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	79.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	68.6	9.9
– Net Position:	-170,489	225,040	-54,551
– Gross Longs:	200,307	1,598,627	143,536
– Gross Shorts:	370,796	1,373,587	198,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	69.1	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	9.0	16.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -222,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -217,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	80.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	70.1	12.4
– Net Position:	-222,547	409,463	-186,916
– Gross Longs:	359,715	3,061,190	283,380
– Gross Shorts:	582,262	2,651,727	470,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	63.2	29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-8.7	5.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -266,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	81.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	68.7	13.5
– Net Position:	-266,187	426,524	-160,337
– Gross Longs:	195,120	2,810,360	307,456
– Gross Shorts:	461,307	2,383,836	467,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	72.6	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.6	16.1	3.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	81.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	66.7	20.0
– Net Position:	-75,834	187,134	-111,300
– Gross Longs:	67,884	1,015,640	137,608
– Gross Shorts:	143,718	828,506	248,908
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	88.3	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-3.6	12.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	74.8	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	75.2	14.0
– Net Position:	4,963	-5,633	670
– Gross Longs:	112,838	892,073	168,164
– Gross Shorts:	107,875	897,706	167,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.2	18.3	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	-1.2	15.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -314,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -309,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.4	83.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	60.7	9.8
– Net Position:	-314,973	290,771	24,202
– Gross Longs:	42,957	1,067,607	149,154
– Gross Shorts:	357,930	776,836	124,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	57.2	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-8.7	-8.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News

12 Jun

COT Week 23 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (8,922 contracts) and Live Cattle (5,888 contracts) with Coffee (5,752 contracts), Cocoa (4,341 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,604 contracts), Wheat (1,572 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,274 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-12,936 contracts) and Soybeans (-9,434 contracts) with Sugar (-6,277 contracts) and Cotton (-2 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Corn and Coffee are in extreme-bullish levels currently. On the opposite position, Live Cattle and Lean Hogs hold extreme-bearish levels while most of the other markets are in strong bullish positions between 50 percent and 80 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that despite the strong strength scores in the blue chart previously, the trends have been cooling off mightily. This chart shows that only Coffee and Wheat have had rising scores over the past six weeks. Live Cattle and Lean Hogs have had strong declines in the trends over the past six weeks followed by Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil and Corn.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-07-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,790,618	10	328,256	8	-369,033	93	40,777	72
Gold	494,130	12	175,268	7	-199,886	95	24,618	18
Silver	148,294	15	17,404	5	-27,990	94	10,586	10
Copper	194,187	22	-3,714	40	879	60	2,835	42
Palladium	7,035	3	-3,461	2	3,581	97	-120	37
Platinum	65,295	31	5,933	12	-9,742	92	3,809	15
Natural Gas	1,127,731	10	-114,342	44	66,419	52	47,923	93
Brent	169,802	16	-36,098	51	34,208	50	1,890	35
Heating Oil	261,651	20	4,886	50	-24,428	45	19,542	66
Soybeans	760,444	35	176,644	68	-148,390	39	-28,254	23
Corn	1,557,167	31	391,264	80	-337,137	24	-54,127	12
Coffee	222,583	15	48,767	81	-51,363	23	2,596	16
Sugar	849,814	12	195,403	77	-234,496	24	39,093	56
Wheat	333,705	12	23,881	50	-19,863	31	-4,018	90

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 391,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 404,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	43.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	64.9	12.3
– Net Position:	391,264	-337,137	-54,127
– Gross Longs:	520,783	673,039	137,311
– Gross Shorts:	129,519	1,010,176	191,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	23.9	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	15.7	-2.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 195,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	45.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	72.7	6.0
– Net Position:	195,403	-234,496	39,093
– Gross Longs:	252,688	383,138	90,314
– Gross Shorts:	57,285	617,634	51,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.8	23.7	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.0	0.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	48.7	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.9	71.8	3.0
– Net Position:	48,767	-51,363	2,596
– Gross Longs:	57,417	108,343	9,164
– Gross Shorts:	8,650	159,706	6,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	22.6	16.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-5.3	-11.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 176,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	47.3	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	66.8	10.2
– Net Position:	176,644	-148,390	-28,254
– Gross Longs:	229,895	359,587	49,303
– Gross Shorts:	53,251	507,977	77,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	39.2	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	8.8	-3.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 78,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	48.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	72.1	5.0
– Net Position:	78,645	-95,258	16,613
– Gross Longs:	107,372	192,493	36,684
– Gross Shorts:	28,727	287,751	20,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.3	38.5	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	17.2	-1.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 89,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	43.9	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	74.2	5.5
– Net Position:	89,676	-115,261	25,585
– Gross Longs:	107,791	167,306	46,628
– Gross Shorts:	18,115	282,567	21,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	23.0	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	14.0	-1.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	40.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	48.7	11.9
– Net Position:	25,428	-24,212	-1,216
– Gross Longs:	104,585	119,324	33,798
– Gross Shorts:	79,157	143,536	35,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.3	80.2	77.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.0	38.3	27.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	41.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	43.3	13.6
– Net Position:	10,491	-3,090	-7,401
– Gross Longs:	59,207	81,583	19,271
– Gross Shorts:	48,716	84,673	26,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	89.8	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.8	27.8	-8.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 70,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	37.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	75.7	3.6
– Net Position:	70,682	-80,347	9,665
– Gross Longs:	86,609	79,718	17,332
– Gross Shorts:	15,927	160,065	7,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	31.0	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.6	-12.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	43.9	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	50.1	4.0
– Net Position:	14,494	-17,823	3,329
– Gross Longs:	89,997	125,905	14,861
– Gross Shorts:	75,503	143,728	11,532
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	68.6	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	11.3	-14.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	34.8	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	40.8	11.6
– Net Position:	23,881	-19,863	-4,018
– Gross Longs:	109,678	116,146	34,706
– Gross Shorts:	85,797	136,009	38,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	31.4	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.5	1.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities

12 Jun

COT Week 23 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Brent Crude & Heating Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (4,774 contracts) and Heating Oil (4,765 contracts) with Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,178 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-4,720 contracts) and Natural Gas (-3,974 contracts) with Gasoline (-3,202 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is the highest above its midpoint for the past 3 years while Brent, Heating Oil and Natural Gas are slightly below the 50 percent level.

Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index bets have been rising the strongest over the past six weeks while Gasoline is moving the opposite way.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-07-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,790,618	10	328,256	8	-369,033	93	40,777	72
Gold	494,130	12	175,268	7	-199,886	95	24,618	18
Silver	148,294	15	17,404	5	-27,990	94	10,586	10
Copper	194,187	22	-3,714	40	879	60	2,835	42
Palladium	7,035	3	-3,461	2	3,581	97	-120	37
Platinum	65,295	31	5,933	12	-9,742	92	3,809	15
Natural Gas	1,127,731	10	-114,342	44	66,419	52	47,923	93
Brent	169,802	16	-36,098	51	34,208	50	1,890	35
Heating Oil	261,651	20	4,886	50	-24,428	45	19,542	66
Soybeans	760,444	35	176,644	68	-148,390	39	-28,254	23
Corn	1,557,167	31	391,264	80	-337,137	24	-54,127	12
Coffee	222,583	15	48,767	81	-51,363	23	2,596	16
Sugar	849,814	12	195,403	77	-234,496	24	39,093	56
Wheat	333,705	12	23,881	50	-19,863	31	-4,018	90

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 328,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 332,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	34.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.3	55.4	2.9
– Net Position:	328,256	-369,033	40,777
– Gross Longs:	423,882	622,320	92,501
– Gross Shorts:	95,626	991,353	51,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	92.9	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-4.2	-2.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	51.5	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	31.4	3.3
– Net Position:	-36,098	34,208	1,890
– Gross Longs:	26,009	87,488	7,434
– Gross Shorts:	62,107	53,280	5,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	50.2	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-2.3	-14.1

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	37.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	31.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-114,342	66,419	47,923
– Gross Longs:	235,073	419,847	76,779
– Gross Shorts:	349,415	353,428	28,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	51.8	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.6	4.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	52.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	66.2	4.3
– Net Position:	30,488	-41,866	11,378
– Gross Longs:	75,841	162,330	24,623
– Gross Shorts:	45,353	204,196	13,245
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	95.2	88.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	6.4	16.0

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	49.5	17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	58.9	10.1
– Net Position:	4,886	-24,428	19,542
– Gross Longs:	45,231	129,588	45,902
– Gross Shorts:	40,345	154,016	26,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	45.3	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-9.7	-9.1

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	62.0	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	51.3	0.8
– Net Position:	-8,383	7,865	518
– Gross Longs:	24,512	45,368	1,126
– Gross Shorts:	32,895	37,503	608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.4	23.5	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-10.2	-6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

10 Jun

Economic “Hurricane”: Here’s a Take on a Bank CEO’s Warning

Here’s what reached a nadir as the war in Ukraine broke out

By Elliott Wave International

On June 1, a CNBC headline said:

[Major bank CEO] says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war

Yes, the U.S. central bank is engaging in so-called “quantitative tightening” and the war persists in Ukraine.

Yet, those cited “causes” of a possible economic “hurricane,” like a severe recession or even a depression, are results themselves. For instance, the war in Ukraine resulted from a shift in social mood — going from positive to negative.

The April Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of financial markets and cultural trends, drives the point home regarding the war in Ukraine with this chart and commentary:

The outbreak of the war coincided not with the start of a decline in U.S. stock prices, as so many investors feared it would, but the exact low prior to a rally that persisted throughout the fighting. The rally is not due to the bizarre formulation that war is bullish; it is due to natural waves of social mood that had reached a nadir when the war broke out.

Regarding Fed tightening as a contributor to a possible economic crisis, realize that the Fed merely follows the market, it doesn’t lead. In other words, investor psychology is the true cause of the rise in rates.

Interest rates (or bond yields) began to rise well before the Fed started to raise its fed funds rate this year.

Fed officials voted to start lifting rates on March 16. Yet, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note bottomed back in 2020 and has been climbing since.

Of course, rising bond yields mean lower bond prices.

Getting back to the economy, the 1.4% decline in U.S. GDP in Q1 was recently revised downward to 1.5%, so an economic contraction may already be underway.

Returning to that mention of “natural waves of social mood” in the April Elliott Wave Theorist quote, you can get insights into these “waves” by reading Frost & Prechter’s book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

Here’s a quote from the book:

The Wave Principle is governed by man’s social nature, and since he has such a nature, its expression generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.

If you’d like to read the entire online version of the book, you may do so for free once you become a member of Club EWI, which is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community (approximately 500,000 members worldwide and growing).

A major benefit of a Club EWI membership is complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave educational resources on financial markets, investing and trading.

There’s no cost involved in joining Club EWI and no obligations.

Get started right away by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — free, unlimited and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Economic “Hurricane”: Here’s a Take on a Bank CEO’s Warning. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.