COT Week 23 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Brent Crude & Heating Oil

June 12, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (4,774 contracts) and Heating Oil (4,765 contracts) with Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,178 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-4,720 contracts) and Natural Gas (-3,974 contracts) with Gasoline (-3,202 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is the highest above its midpoint for the past 3 years while Brent, Heating Oil and Natural Gas are slightly below the 50 percent level.

Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index bets have been rising the strongest over the past six weeks while Gasoline is moving the opposite way.


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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,790,618 10 328,256 8 -369,033 93 40,777 72
Gold 494,130 12 175,268 7 -199,886 95 24,618 18
Silver 148,294 15 17,404 5 -27,990 94 10,586 10
Copper 194,187 22 -3,714 40 879 60 2,835 42
Palladium 7,035 3 -3,461 2 3,581 97 -120 37
Platinum 65,295 31 5,933 12 -9,742 92 3,809 15
Natural Gas 1,127,731 10 -114,342 44 66,419 52 47,923 93
Brent 169,802 16 -36,098 51 34,208 50 1,890 35
Heating Oil 261,651 20 4,886 50 -24,428 45 19,542 66
Soybeans 760,444 35 176,644 68 -148,390 39 -28,254 23
Corn 1,557,167 31 391,264 80 -337,137 24 -54,127 12
Coffee 222,583 15 48,767 81 -51,363 23 2,596 16
Sugar 849,814 12 195,403 77 -234,496 24 39,093 56
Wheat 333,705 12 23,881 50 -19,863 31 -4,018 90

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 328,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 332,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 34.8 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 55.4 2.9
– Net Position: 328,256 -369,033 40,777
– Gross Longs: 423,882 622,320 92,501
– Gross Shorts: 95,626 991,353 51,724
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 8.2 92.9 72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.3 -4.2 -2.1

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.3 51.5 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.6 31.4 3.3
– Net Position: -36,098 34,208 1,890
– Gross Longs: 26,009 87,488 7,434
– Gross Shorts: 62,107 53,280 5,544
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.6 50.2 34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.1 -2.3 -14.1

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 37.2 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.0 31.3 2.6
– Net Position: -114,342 66,419 47,923
– Gross Longs: 235,073 419,847 76,779
– Gross Shorts: 349,415 353,428 28,856
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.3 51.8 93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -1.6 4.6

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 52.7 8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 66.2 4.3
– Net Position: 30,488 -41,866 11,378
– Gross Longs: 75,841 162,330 24,623
– Gross Shorts: 45,353 204,196 13,245
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 95.2 88.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 6.4 16.0

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 49.5 17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 58.9 10.1
– Net Position: 4,886 -24,428 19,542
– Gross Longs: 45,231 129,588 45,902
– Gross Shorts: 40,345 154,016 26,360
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 45.3 66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.2 -9.7 -9.1

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 62.0 1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 51.3 0.8
– Net Position: -8,383 7,865 518
– Gross Longs: 24,512 45,368 1,126
– Gross Shorts: 32,895 37,503 608
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.4 23.5 37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -10.2 -6.8

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.