09 Aug

Markets mixed as spotlight shines on US CPI

By ForexTime

Asian shares struggled for direction this morning as concerns about inflation and the outlook for economic growth weighed on sentiment. Overnight, Wall Street’s main indices were mostly flat with a sales warning from Nvidia dragging down the tech sector. In Europe, stocks are expected to open lower due to the growing caution ahead of the US inflation report on Wednesday.

Looking at currencies, king dollar has retreated from recent highs while EUR/USD is trading around the sticky 1.02 level. Gold seems to be waiting for a fresh fundamental spark while oil prices are under pressure as OPEC’s monthly report and EIA data loom.

On the data front, Australian consumer sentiment slumped in August thanks to the horrible combination of soaring inflation, rising interest rates, and gloomy outlook on living costs. This marks the ninth consecutive month that sentiment has stayed negative.

Will US Inflation report spark fireworks?

The main risk event and potential market shaker this week will be the latest US inflation figures published on Wednesday. After accelerating by 9.1% in June, markets are forecasting  a cooling in July annual inflation to 8.7%. Should expectations match reality, this could be a breath of fresh air for financial markets and fuel optimism around inflation plateauing. Given how markets remain obsessive and incredibly reactive to any topic relating to rising prices, explosive levels of volatility could be on the cards.

If US consumer prices defy market expectations by rising again, this is likely to reinforce expectations around the Fed hiking rates by another 75 basis points in September. According to Bloomberg, traders are currently pricing in this scenario with around a 74% probability.

Alternatively, if the inflation report meets or misses expectations, this could raise hopes over consumer prices peaking. Such a development could encourage the Fed to step back from its aggressive approach toward hiking rates, which could send the dollar tumbling and Treasury yields declining.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold was able to recover from last Friday’s selloff after the strong jobs report cooled recession fears and fortified expectations for more aggressive Fed rate hikes. Bulls wasted little time in clawing back the post-NFP losses yesterday with prices trading around $1785.50 as of writing.

Although buyers have been in the driving seat for the past three weeks, the pending US CPI report could shift the balance of power between bulls and bears. A strong inflation report could deal zero-yielding gold a heavy blow as aggressive rate hike bets jump. Alternatively, a weak report may provide the precious metal an opportunity to push higher.

Looking at things from a technical perspective, there are a couple of tough resistance levels that bulls may face down the road. The first one is around $1785 where the 50-day SMA resides and $1830, a key point just below the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average. If bears end up dominating the scene, prices may sink back towards $1752 and $1724.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
08 Aug

Severe Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%?

“Oftentimes, rallies will end with an inter-index non-confirmation”

By Elliott Wave International

A long-long time ago in a galaxy far away… errr, on the heels of the year 2000 dot-com crash, to be exact — which is ancient history for many investors today — the February 2003 Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has covered financial markets and major cultural trends since 1979, published an interview with Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter.

Prechter was asked if he was surprised by investors’ lack of capitulation since the bear market started in 2000.

Prechter replied:

I read a statistic that said no more than 1 to 1½% of investors actually got out. This is utterly typical. The average investor stays in. [emphasis added]

This is mentioned because the patterns of investor psychology tend to repeat, which is the entire basis of Elliott wave analysis, which helps you track those patterns on the scale from intraday to multi-century.

So, with that in mind, consider what the July 2022 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which focuses on major U.S. financial markets, says:

Even as stocks fell hard into the middle of June, the bullish resolve of investors remained on display. On June 14, for instance, Bloomberg reported that “Undeterred Retail Traders Piled into Stocks.”

The chances are high that many of these investors will hold onto their stocks into the worst part of the bear market, if indeed the January top in stocks marked the end of the long bull market.

By one measure, investors know that the S&P 500 had already suffered at least a minimum bear market because in June, the index had declined 25% from its January all-time high. Of course, a 20% decline is widely considered to be the “official” entry into a bear market.

Since June 17, however, the index has rallied.

The question is: Is the bear market over, or is the price climb since June 17 a countertrend rally in a bigger bear market?

Well, if indeed the rally is countertrend, the August 1 U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which offers near-term analysis of key U.S. financial markets, provided a clue on how to possibly ascertain the end of the rally:

Oftentimes, rallies will end with an inter-index non-confirmation, where one or more stock index will fail to confirm the final rally high in the other indexes.

Elliott Wave International’s analysts show you where the various related indexes are right now in relation to each other in EWI’s publications. EWI’s analysts also show what the Elliott wave model is revealing about the price pattern of the main indexes.

The whole idea is to make sure you’re among the 1.5% of investors who are on the sidelines if a bigger bear market has yet to unfold.

If you’re new to Elliott wave analysis, you are encouraged to read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

After you have acquired an Elliott “touch,” it will be forever with you, just as a child who learns to ride a bicycle never forgets. Thereafter, catching a turn becomes a fairly common experience and not really too difficult. Furthermore, by giving you a feeling of confidence as to where you are in the progress of the market, a knowledge of Elliott can prepare you psychologically for the fluctuating nature of price movement and free you from sharing the widely practiced analytical error of forever projecting today’s trends linearly into the future. Most important, the Wave Principle often indicates in advance the relative magnitude of the next period of market progress or regress. Living in harmony with those trends can make the difference between success and failure in financial affairs.

Good news: You can access the entire online version of the book for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community (about 500,000 worldwide members and growing).

You can join Club EWI for free, and members get complimentary access to an array of Elliott wave resources on financial markets and investing, which includes videos and exclusive interviews with Elliott Wave International’s analysts.

If you’re already familiar with Elliott wave analysis and you love “free,” the chances are high that you’ll love Club EWI.

Jump on the Club EWI bandwagon by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Severe Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News
08 Aug

Brent is Stressed and Continues to Decline

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity market suffered another stress last week. On Monday, the situation reached stability, but it remains quite complicated; Brent is trading at $95.60.

The asset closed last trading week near its 5-month lows.

The key reason for these negative vibes is the same’ global expectations of a worldwide recession. Economic slumps all over the world will eventually lead to a decline in demand for fuel, hence a drop in energy prices.

Another local factor that puts pressure on is the USD strengthening.

Last Friday’s report from Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the Oil Rig Count in the US lost 7 units, down to 598. In Canada, the indicator increased by 3 units, up to 140. Shale oil companies are in no hurry to invest more money in production.

On the H4 chart, after breaking 100.00 downwards, Brent is still correcting and has already reached the short-term target at 94.80. Possibly, today the pair may form one more ascending structure to test 99.90 from below and then complete the descending wave by reaching 90.00. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 122.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving near the lows outside the histogram area and may later grow to reach 0.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after finishing the descending correctional structure at 95.15, Brent is consolidating above this level. Possibly, the asset may break the range to the upside and start another growth with the target at 100.00. Later, the market may resume falling to reach 90.00. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving near the highs above 80. Later, the line may fall to break 50 and continue falling to reach 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
08 Aug

Trade Of The Week: What Next For Gold As Focus Shifts To US CPI?

By ForexTime 

– Gold kicked off the week on a steady note despite last Friday’s blowout jobs report cooling recession fears and reinforcing expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

An appreciating dollar and jump in Treasury yields initially dragged the precious metal from a one-month peak. However, prices seem to be making their way back towards this point ahead of another big week and potentially volatile week for gold.

In July, the US economy created 528,000 jobs, well above the forecast of 250,000 while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% as the labour market condition tightened. With the strong jobs report boosting the dollar and supporting the case for another jumbo Fed rate hike, this could spell more trouble for zero-yielding gold.

It is worth keeping in mind that before the NFP upside surprise, gold drew ample support from geopolitics risks, recession fears, reduced Fed hike bets, and a weaker dollar. In fact, the precious metal has rallied for the last three weeks on these themes with geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns offering an opportunity for the precious metal to shine.

Taking a quick look at the technicals, gold remains in a bullish trend on the daily charts. The current upside momentum could take prices towards $1809. However, if the fundamentals start to empower bears – then things could get ugly for gold. We are likely to see the precious metal display high levels of sensitivity to the pending US inflation data.

All eyes on US inflation report

Inflation in the United States accelerated 9.1% in June, its highest level in 40 years!

According to Bloomberg, July’s inflation data is expected to show annual inflation cooling to 8.7%. Should expectations become reality, this will be a welcome development for markets and may fuel speculation around inflation peaking. Now when factoring the market obsession and reactivity to anything relating to rising prices, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts!

Another jump in US consumer price inflation may solidify expectations around the Federal Reserve hiking rates by another 75 basis points in September. Traders are currently pricing in a 78% probability the Fed continues the pace of jumbo rate hikes for its decision in September. Given gold’s zero-yielding nature, this is certainly bad news and could result in steep downside losses.

However, if the inflation report meets or misses expectations – this could raise hopes over consumer prices plateauing. Such a development could encourage the Fed to dial back on its aggressive approach toward rates. If the dollar weakens and Treasury yields fall on such a development, gold could be given more room to fight back.

Gold speeding into a brick wall?

Gold bulls remain in the driving seat with their feet on the accelerator, clawing back losses from Friday’s selloff. Prices are trading around the $1785 level which is just below the 50-day Simple Moving Average. A strong breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards $1809 and potentially $1840 – a level below the 100 and 200-day SMA. However, if 1809 proves to be a tough nut to crack – prices may slip back towards $1785 and $1752, respectively.

Zooming in on the weekly charts, prices remain in a bearish channel. However, bulls are making a presence and have been in control for the past 3 weeks. The upside momentum could take prices towards $1830 and $1875, respectively. A decline below $1740 is seen triggering a selloff towards $1685 – a level just above the 200-week Simple Moving Average.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

 

 

Metals Opinions
08 Aug

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 08.08.2022 (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is rebounding from Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 1.2115 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1765. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2205. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2305. To confirm a further downtrend, the price must break the bullish channel’s downside border and fix below 1.1955.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is testing Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 1755.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1825.00. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1725.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1685.00.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is correcting within the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 1.2905 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3110. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2795. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2695. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the bearish channel’s upside border and fix above 1.3065.

USDCAD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
08 Aug

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, DOGE). Overview for 08.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

At the beginning of the new week of August, the BTC is growing. This is good news: if the leading crypto remains stubborn and confident, it might escape the flat by the upper border. Now the BTC costs $23,787.

The task of the crypto sector for the nearest few days is securing above $25,000. Next, the US will issue an inflation report for July, and the quotes will start moving again. Will this “plan” come true is a big question because the crypto never goes up fast and smoothly nowadays. On the other hand, the fact that the BTC price has secured above $23,500 gives the bulls a certain advantage. An important resistance area for the BTC is still $24,000-$24,600. If the crypto successfully rises above it, a pathway to $25,000 might open.

The capitalisation of the crypto market is about $1.02 trillion. The BTC takes up 40.5%, the ETH — 18.9%. The fear index, compared to last week, has dropped. The complexity of BTC mining grew for the first time in two previous months.

Dogecoin: positions worsen

On the Top 10 list of cryptocurrencies the position of the meme Dogecoin worsened: it became number 11 with capitalisation of $9.37 billion, the Polcadot token taking its 10th place. Capitalisation of the coin is estimated at $9.77 billion.

Inflation in Chile makes USDT more popular

The Chileans take more and more interest in crypto, the USDT and USDC in particular. This is because prices in the country are growing: in June, inflation has grown to an almost 30-year high of 12.5%. Consumers are ready to put their savings in digital currencies to save them from depreciation.

India froze WazirX assets

Indian authorities have decided to freeze the assets of the crypto exchange WazirX belonging to Binance. The platform is suspected of facilitating money laundering. Now there are $8.16 billion of assets blocked.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
08 Aug

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.08

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0245
  • Prev Close: 1.0177
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.66%

The US non-farm payrolls report for July 2022 surprised analytics with an increase. Employment rose by 528,000, more than double the consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, matching the lows seen in a robust labor market before the pandemic. Average hourly earnings rose by 5.2% in 12 months. Such data suggest that the Federal Reserve will not slow the pace of interest rate increases. The Fed will seek to raise rates as much as possible so that it will have room to lower them when unemployment starts to rise, and the economy faces a recession.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0176, 1.0146, 1.0112, 1.0035, 1.0000
  • Resistance levels: 1.0222, 1.0245, 1.0264, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bullish. The price is still forming a wide volatile balance with the borders of 1.0112-1.0284. But on Friday, quotes fell on the non-farms report due to the strengthening of the dollar index. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best to consider on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0176. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0221 or 1.0245, but only after additional confirmation and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0112 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2168
  • Prev Close: 1.2064
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.86%

This week the UK GDP report for last month and Q2 will be released. After the Bank of England warned last week that it expects the economy to enter a 15-month recession later this year, analysts are predicting a GDP slowdown. With the Bank of England also planning to take a break in raising interest rates, the British pound could see a wave of sell-offs.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2063, 1.2006, 1.1803
  • Resistance levels: 1.2123, 1.2167, 1.2209, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish, but on Friday, the price broke through the priority change level but failed to consolidate below, thus forming a false break down. The MACD indicator becomes negative. If the price holds below 1.2063 again, there will be a trend change. At the moment, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.2063, but only with a confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2123, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2063 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 132.82
  • Prev Close: 135.01
  • % chg. over the last day: +1.64%

The Japanese yen is again falling against the US dollar as demand for the haven asset of the dollar rises amid tensions between the US and China and the global economic outlook. The Bank of Japan’s ultra-soft monetary policy to support economic recovery has left the Japanese yen behind other G-10 currencies, while other central banks are seeking to raise interest rates. Nevertheless, several Japanese policymakers said last week that an exit strategy from massive stimulus was needed. This could hint at a likely shift in the central bank’s monetary policy stance.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 134.29, 133.42, 132.12, 131.37, 130.85
  • Resistance levels: 135.29, 136.03, 137.11

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is close to changing to the uptrend. The price is now trading at the priority change level but has not yet consolidated higher. A break of 135.29 will change the trend. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 134.29 or 133.42, but with additional confirmation. Resistance levels of 135.29 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative, as the price has already tested it.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 135.29, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2856
  • Prev Close: 1.2935
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.61%

Canada’s unemployment rate remained at 4.9%, with the number of jobs down by 30.6 thousand. Employment in Canada remains about 423 thousand above pre-pandemic levels. This continues to be a stronger cumulative job recovery than in the United States. Against the backdrop of a strong labor market, the Bank of Canada will also be looking to raise interest rates to have room to cut them further. Analysts believe that the Bank of Canada is now likely to pay more attention to wages as they fuel the prevailing inflation fears.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2876, 1.2802, 1.2786
  • Resistance levels: 1.2965, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price confidently broke through the priority change level and consolidated above. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the buyers’ pressure remains, but for the optimal entry points, it is necessary to wait for a slight correction. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2900, but only with confirmation and short targets. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3006, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates below the 1.2786 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
08 Aug

Russia creates “nuclear terrorism” at the nuclear power plant in Ukraine. Europe’s growth outlook worsens

By JustForex

A strong non-farm payrolls report on Friday dashed hopes that the Federal Reserve might tone down its aggressive campaign to rein in the highest inflation in decades. As long as the labor market remains strong, the Fed will seek to raise rates as much as possible so that it can have room to lower them when unemployment starts to rise, and the economy falls into recession. The likelihood of a 75 basis point Fed rate hike at the September meeting has increased even more. Signs that inflation still hasn’t peaked could affect expectations that the central bank could stop raising rates early next year, leading to a stock decline.

The US stock indices traded mixed on Friday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23% (+0.15% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.16% (+0.80% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.50% (+2.76% for the week).

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are due to speak this week. Investors should closely watch their comments for what sentiment prevails within the US Federal System. Fed Governor Michel Bowman said Saturday that the Fed should consider a 75-bp rate hike to bring inflation back in line with the central bank’s target, echoing recent comments from other Fed officials.

The US stock market is about halfway through its second-quarter reporting period, and so far, US companies have reported mostly upbeat reports and forecasts. These surprising investors had been preparing for a weaker reading. According to Reuters, about 78% of earnings reports beat Wall Street expectations, above the long-term average.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.65% (+0.76% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.63% (+0.39% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 index (ES35) added 0.08% (+0.05% for the week) the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.11% (-0.16% for the week).

European stocks fell on Friday after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report boosted bets for another 75 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month. At the same time, worries about worsening growth prospects in the Eurozone prompted investors to close their equity positions. Analysts predict that the situation in Europe will only worsen, and the European Central Bank will raise interest rates more aggressively.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres called Monday for international inspectors to be granted access to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant after Russia shelled Europe’s largest nuclear power plant over the weekend. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky accused Russia of waging “nuclear terror,” which calls for new international sanctions, this time against Moscow’s nuclear industry.

Staff at German airline Lufthansa and management reached a wage agreement, preventing further strikes during the busy summer tourist season.

Despite supply chain problems, industrial production in Germany showed an unexpected but modest increase in June, official data showed.

Brent crude oil fell 1.4% on Friday to $92.81 a barrel. It dropped below $93 a barrel for the first time since February 21. WTI crude fell by 1.5% to $87 a barrel. Oil prices continued to decline on Monday as recession fears weighed on demand prospects and data on crude imports into China pointed to a slow recovery.

Asian markets traded higher last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.88%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 1.01%.

China’s export growth unexpectedly accelerated in July, providing an encouraging boost to the economy. Still, weakening global demand could slow supplies in coming months. Exports rose 18.0% in July from a year earlier, the fastest pace this year.

In the commodities market, orange juice (+6.05%), platinum (+4.73%), and sugar (+2.34%) futures showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Futures on WTI oil (-10.23%), lumber (-9.87%), Brent oil (-9.76%), gasoline (-8.95%), wheat (-3.87%), coffee (-3.78%), and natural gas (-2.72%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,145.19 −6.75 (−0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,803.47 +76.65 (+0.23%)

DAX (DE40) 13,573.93 −88.75 (−0.65%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,439.74 −8.32 (−0.11%)

USD Index 106.58 +0.88 (+0.84%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
07 Aug

Elliott Waves: Your “Rhyme & Reason” to Mainstream Market Opinions

R.N. Elliott’s stock market observations fell together “into a general set of principles”

By Elliott Wave International

It’s understandable why investors with little experience consult the market opinions of professionals.

But many of these new investors are left scratching their heads. Two headlines from July 29 indicate why:

  • [Fundstrat Managing Partner] says the 2022 bear market is over, stocks could hit new highs before year-end (CNBC)
  • Stock market’s post-Fed bounce is a ‘trap,’ says Morgan Stanley’s [Chief Investment Officer] (Marketwatch]

Yes, two directly opposing opinions that were published on the same day.

The date before those headlines published (July 28), happened to be Ralph Nelson Elliott’s 151st birthday.

You may be interested in his discovery about stock market behavior because it offers an alternative to consulting mainstream financial stories.

Here’s a brief overview: In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948) discovered that the stock market moves in recurring patterns that he called waves.

Elliott had led an active life as an accountant and management consultant, working at various times for railroad companies in Mexico, Central America and South America, a business magazine, and for the State Department before becoming seriously ill with pernicious anemia.

In the book, R.N. Elliott’s Masterworks, Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter describes what happened next:

Despite being physically debilitated by his malady, Elliott needed something to occupy his acute mind while recuperating between its worst attacks. … It was around 1932 that Elliott began turning his full attention to … finding out whether there was any rhyme or reason to the stock market. …

Around May 1934 … his numerous observations of general stock market behavior began falling together into a general set of principles that applied to all degrees of wave movement in the stock price averages.

Elliott’s insights continue to be employed by investors today.

The basic Elliott wave pattern consists of five subwaves (denoted by numbers) which move in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size and three corrective subwaves (denoted by letters) which move against the trend of the next larger size:

When this initial eight-wave cycle such as shown by the illustration ends, a similar cycle begins.

In other words, the basic Elliott wave pattern links to form five- and three-wave structures of increasingly larger size.

An important point is that the Wave Principle helps investors to identify turning points in the trends of financial markets.

Indeed, here’s a quote from Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

When after a while the apparent jumble gels into a clear picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%. It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.

Here’s the good news: You can access the entire online version of the book for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

Club EWI is free to join without any obligations and members enjoy free access to Elliott wave resources on financial markets and investing, including exclusive articles and interviews with Elliott Wave International’s analysts.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Elliott Waves: Your “Rhyme & Reason” to Mainstream Market Opinions. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News
06 Aug

Currency Speculators trim Japanese Yen bearish bets while Brazilian Real bets fall into bearish level

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were slightly  lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets recorded lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was Japanese yen (18,728 contracts) with the Mexican peso (6,845 contracts), the Canadian dollar (4,508 contracts), the Euro (2,773 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (2,613 contracts) also making gains on the week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-12,842 contracts) and Australian dollar (-8,565 contracts) with the British pound sterling (-2,419 contracts), the Swiss franc (-2,009 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,188 contracts) and Bitcoin (-460 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the currency markets data this week was the rebound in the Japanese yen speculator bets. Yen bets jumped by +18,728 contracts this week which marks the highest positive change of the past seven weeks. The yen bets have been in an overall bearish level since March of 2021 with a recent bearish high on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts and were as high as -102,309 contracts on May 17th before speculators started to pare their bearish bets. Since May, the speculator positioning has improved by approximately 60,000 net contracts and has pushed the overall speculator position to the least bearish level since June 8th of 2021, a span of sixty weeks.

Brazilian Real speculator bets declined this week by over -12,000 contracts and the overall positioning dropped into a new bearish level at -1,130 contracts. This is the first bearish net position since February 1st, a span of the past twenty-six weeks. The decline in Real positions has happened fast and furious as speculator positions hit record high bullish levels in early March above +50,000 contracts and were as high as +44,345 contracts on June 21st. Since June 14th, speculator bets have fallen in five out of the past seven weeks for a total decline of -48,343 contracts over that time and erasing the bullish spec position.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-02-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index57,0548239,34791-42,15992,81247
EUR683,88375-38,8112315,5208023,29113
GBP226,98761-56,4093072,57774-16,16822
JPY236,73780-42,7534350,25460-7,50138
CHF45,87433-13,3082323,27981-9,97124
CAD145,9142720,27762-30,4074310,13050
AUD167,93158-55,9503362,12465-6,17437
NZD45,27434-1,573694,85838-3,28514
MXN192,97146-23,0531820,696812,35753
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL21,1941-1,13049-561511,69185
Bitcoin12,84972-58170244033721

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (90.6 percent) continued to lead the strength scores although it came down a bit from last week (92.5 percent) but still remains in a bullish extreme level. Bitcoin (69.7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (68.6 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (62.1 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets for strength scores. On the downside, the Mexican Peso (17.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The Swiss Franc (22.8 percent), the Euro (23.1 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (29.9 percent) round out the next weakest strength scores this week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (90.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (92.5 percent)
EuroFX (23.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (42.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (31.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (62.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (33.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (68.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (64.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (17.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.6 percent)
Brazil Real (49.3 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (61.9 percent)
Bitcoin (69.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (78.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Canadian Dollar (18.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (9.7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (5.2 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data. The Brazil Real (-44.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Bitcoin (-29.6 percent), the Swiss Franc (-15.6 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) followed by the US Dollar Index (-9.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-9.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-6.6 percent)
EuroFX (-7.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-10.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (8.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (9.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (5.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-11.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (18.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-1.5 percent)
Brazil Real (-44.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-34.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-21.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:84.04.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.078.84.1
– Net Position:39,347-42,1592,812
– Gross Longs:47,9182,8075,128
– Gross Shorts:8,57144,9662,316
– Long to Short Ratio:5.6 to 10.1 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.68.847.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.47.311.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.057.312.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.755.08.7
– Net Position:-38,81115,52023,291
– Gross Longs:191,692391,84182,466
– Gross Shorts:230,503376,32159,175
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.180.413.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.19.6-17.4

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.975.88.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.843.815.6
– Net Position:-56,40972,577-16,168
– Gross Longs:29,305171,96619,191
– Gross Shorts:85,71499,38935,359
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.973.922.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.2-3.2-3.1

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.366.510.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.445.213.9
– Net Position:-42,75350,254-7,501
– Gross Longs:50,433157,33325,358
– Gross Shorts:93,186107,07932,859
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.560.238.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.7-11.817.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.863.418.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.812.640.2
– Net Position:-13,30823,279-9,971
– Gross Longs:8,17029,0758,457
– Gross Shorts:21,4785,79618,428
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.880.623.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.613.3-7.3

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.140.724.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.261.517.3
– Net Position:20,277-30,40710,130
– Gross Longs:48,34259,35535,393
– Gross Shorts:28,06589,76225,263
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.143.450.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-19.915.4

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.468.610.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.731.614.3
– Net Position:-55,95062,124-6,174
– Gross Longs:30,835115,14117,863
– Gross Shorts:86,78553,01724,037
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.065.237.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.213.1-5.3

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.556.15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.045.413.0
– Net Position:-1,5734,858-3,285
– Gross Longs:16,52125,4202,620
– Gross Shorts:18,09420,5625,905
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.637.913.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.5-6.00.6

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,053 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.644.03.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.533.31.8
– Net Position:-23,05320,6962,357
– Gross Longs:101,41584,8845,777
– Gross Shorts:124,46864,1883,420
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.581.453.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-1.0-6.5

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.835.414.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.238.06.7
– Net Position:-1,130-5611,691
– Gross Longs:10,5627,5003,115
– Gross Shorts:11,6928,0611,424
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.350.784.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-44.744.30.5

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.85.98.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.34.05.8
– Net Position:-581244337
– Gross Longs:9,7407541,085
– Gross Shorts:10,321510748
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.771.920.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.671.98.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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