InvestMacro

Chart Spotlight: Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

Over the last few weeks, I highlighted a few opportunities with Chart Spotlight.

On July 13, for example, I highlighted Generac Holdings (GNRC), as it traded around $212. It’s now up to $265.50.
On July 26, I highlighted Albemarle (ALB), as it traded at $224. It’s now up to $280.15.
On August 3, I highlighted Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), as it traded around $13. It’s now up to $15.26, and could still move higher with Bitcoin.
On August 5, I spoke about Tellurian (TELL), as it traded at $3.15. It’s now at $4.35.

With the help of the screeners at MarketClub, that’s not bad at all.

Today, I’m taking a look at solar stocks, like Canadian Solar (CSIQ), which MarketClub is rating with a strong +100. Not only is this an indication of a strong long-term trend, it’s also telling us the intermediate and short-term trend is up for CSIQ, as well.

In fact according to the Chart Analysis Score, at a +100, CSIQ is in a strong uptrend that is likely to continue. With short-term, intermediate, and long-term bullish momentum, CSIQ continues to climb. MarketClub’s most recent green monthly Trade Triangle occurred on August 5 at $38.18.

Source: MarketClub

Why is Canadian Solar running like this?

There are a few reasons.

For one, solar stocks are riding the momentum behind the $370 billion clean energy bill.

According to U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s site, “The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 invests in the technologies needed for all fuel types – from hydrogen, nuclear, renewables, fossil fuels and energy storage – to be produced and used in the cleanest way possible. It is truly all of the above, which means this bill does not arbitrarily shut off our abundant fossil fuels. It invests heavily in technologies to help us reduce our domestic methane and carbon emissions and also helps decarbonize around the world as we displace dirtier products.”

Two, that bill includes a 10-year extension on a 30% tax credit for solar projects. It was supposed to expire by next year.

Plus, according to DLA Piper, “For facilities beginning construction before January 1, 2025, the bill will extend the ITC for up to 30 percent of the cost of installed equipment for ten years and will then step down to 26 percent in 2033 and 22 percent in 2034. For projects beginning construction after 2019 that are placed in service before January 1, 2022, the ITC would be set at 26 percent.”

Three, solar stocks, like Canadian Solar (CSIQ) are producing solid earnings and guidance.

For its second quarter, the company saw sales growth of 62% to $2.31 billion. That was higher than expectations for $2.23 billion. EPS of $1.07 was also higher than expectations for 33 cents. Then, the company hiked its 2022 sales forecast to $7.5 billion to $8 billion, which is higher than the initial forecast for a range of $7 billion to $7.5 billion.

Ian Cooper
INO.com Contributor

The above analysis of Canadian Solar (CSIQ) was provided by financial writer Ian Cooper. Ian Cooper is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Ian Cooper expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Chart Spotlight: Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

22 Aug

Does turning the air conditioning off when you’re not home actually save energy? Three engineers run the numbers

By Aisling Pigott, University of Colorado Boulder; Jennifer Scheib, University of Colorado Boulder, and Kyri Baker, University of Colorado Boulder

Hot summer days can mean high electricity bills. People want to stay comfortable without wasting energy and money. Maybe your household has fought over the best strategy for cooling your space. Which is more efficient: running the air conditioning all summer long without break, or turning it off during the day when you’re not there to enjoy it?

We are a team of architectural and building systems engineers who used energy models that simulate heat transfer and A/C system performance to tackle this perennial question: Will you need to remove more heat from your home by continuously removing heat throughout the day or removing excess heat only at the end of the day?

The answer boils down to how energy intensive it is to remove heat from your home. It’s influenced by many factors such as how well your house is insulated, the size and type of your air conditioner and outdoor temperature and humidity.

According to our unpublished calculations, letting your home heat up while you’re out at work and cooling it when you get home can use less energy than keeping it consistently cool – but it depends.

Blast A/C all day, even when you’re away?

First, think about how heat accumulates in the first place. It flows into your home when the building has less stored heat than outside. If the amount of heat flowing into your home is given by a rate of “1 unit per hour,” your A/C will always have 1 unit of heat to remove every hour. If you turn off your A/C and let the heat accumulate, you could have up to eight hours’ worth of heat at the end of the day.

It’s often less than that, though – homes have a limit to how much heat they can store. And the amount of heat that enters your home depends on how hot the building was to begin with. For example, if your home can only store 5 units of thermal energy before coming to an equilibrium with the outdoor air temperature, then at the end of the day you will only ever have to remove 5 units of heat at most.

Additionally, as your home heats up, the process of heat transfer slows down; eventually it reaches zero heat transfer at equilibrium, when the temperature inside is the same as the temperature outside. Your A/C also cools less effectively in extreme heat, so keeping it off during the hottest parts of the day can increase overall efficiency of the system. These effects mean there’s no one straightforward answer to whether you should blast the A/C all day or wait until you get back home in the evening.

Energy used by different A/C strategies

Consider a test case of a small home with typical insulation in two warm climates: dry (Arizona) and humid (Georgia). Using energy modeling software created by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory for analyzing energy use in residential buildings, we looked at multiple test cases for energy use in this hypothetical 1,200 square-foot (110 square-meter) home.

We considered three temperature strategy scenarios. One has the indoor temperature set to a constant 76 degrees Fahrenheit (24.4 degrees Celsius). A second lets the temperature float up to 89 F (31.6 C) during an eight-hour workday – a “setback.” The last uses a temperature setback to 89 F (31.6 C) for a short four-hour workday.

Within these three scenarios, we looked at three different A/C technologies: a single stage central A/C, a central air source heat pump (ASHP) and minisplit heat pump units. Central A/C units are typical of current residential buildings, while heat pumps are gaining popularity due to their improved efficiency. Central ASHPs are easily used in one-to-one replacements of central A/C units; minisplits are more efficient than central A/C but costly to set up.

We wanted to see how energy use from A/C varied across these cases. We knew that regardless of the HVAC technology used, the A/C system would surge when the thermostat setpoint returned to 76 F (24.4 C) and also for all three cases in the late afternoon when outdoor air temperatures are usually the highest. In the setback cases, we programmed the A/C to start cooling the space before the resident is back, ensuring thermal comfort by the time they get home.

Six line graphs that show how the temperature in the house and the energy used vary with the outdoor heat. — Energy models can show how much energy a house will use under particular conditions – like Phoenix’s hot, dry summer weather. The researchers ran the numbers on three different HVAC technologies and three different temperature-setting strategies.
Pigott/Scheib/Baker/CU Boulder, CC BY-ND

What we found was that even when the A/C temporarily spikes to recover from the higher indoor temperatures, the overall energy consumption in the setback cases is still less than when maintaining a constant temperature throughout the day. On an annual scale with a conventional central A/C, this could result in energy savings of up to 11%.

However, the energy savings may decrease if the home is better insulated, the A/C is more efficient or the climate has less dramatic temperature swings.

The central air source heat pump and minisplit heat pump are more efficient overall but yield less savings from temperature setbacks. An eight-hour setback on weekdays provides savings regardless of the system type, while the benefits gleaned from a four-hour setback are less straightforward.

About the Authors:

Aisling Pigott, Ph.D. Student in Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder; Jennifer Scheib, Assistant Teaching Professor of Building Systems Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, and Kyri Baker, Assistant Professor of Building Systems Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Aug

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 22.08.2022 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern close to the support area, EURUSD may reverse in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.0070. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may fall to break 0.9980 and continue the downtrend.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed a Hammer reversal pattern during the correction. At the moment, the asset may reverse and form another rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 138.50. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 136.50 and continue the uptrend only after the pullback.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the resistance area, EURGBP is reversing in the form of another bearish impulse. In this case, the downside target may be the support level at 0.8445. Later, the market may test this level, break it, and continue moving downwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may correct to reach 0.8520 first and then resume the descending tendency.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Aug

Murrey Math Lines 22.08.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, EURUSD is heading towards the “oversold area”. In this case, the price is expected to test 0/8, rebound from it, and then resume growing to reach the resistance at 1/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the support at 0/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue falling towards the next target at -1/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator is pretty far away from the price, that’s why the pair may resume trading upwards only after rebounding from 0/8 in the H4 chart.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, GBPUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a possible descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 1/8 and continue falling to reach the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 2/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards 4/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its decline.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Aug

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.22

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0089
Prev Close: 1.0038
% chg. over the last day: -0.51%

Europe’s economy is at risk of recession due to threats of energy rationing, record inflation, and tighter monetary policy. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has become the region’s weak spot as its huge industrial base suffers from rising energy prices and persistent supply shortages. Supply managers’ indices, due out Tuesday, will tell traders whether the region’s economy is heading for a recession or not. The July ECB meeting minutes may indicate whether investors should prepare for another 50 basis point rate hike in September. But given widespread inflationary pressures, analysts are confident of such a hike, with about a third of analysts leaning toward a 75 basis point increase.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0033, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0112, 1.0146, 1.0230, 1.0286, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050.

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The euro continues to lose ground. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0033, but with a confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0112, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.0230 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.22:

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1927
Prev Close: 1.1829
% chg. over the last day: -0.82%

According to analysts, the UK’s bleak economic outlook overshadows any gains that the British pound could get from a rapid rise in interest rates. Another record inflation figure last week prompted traders to bet that the Bank of England will more than double its key rate to 3.75%. Options traders remain decidedly bearish on the British currency. In theory, a rate hike should act as a tailwind for currencies and a headwind for bonds. But the UK has poor growth prospects, price pressures, and policy rate uncertainty.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1811
Resistance levels: 1.1903, 1.2000, 1.2035, 1.2167, 1.2215, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is now trading below the moving averages, indicating selling pressure. The MACD indicator has become negative, but there are no signs of divergence. At the moment, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.1903, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1811, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2034 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 135.86
Prev Close: 136.89
% chg. over the last day: +0.76%

The US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in late July sent the dollar index sharply higher, even though the Central Bank raised its interest rate by 75 basis points. Over the past three weeks, the Japanese yen has fallen against the dollar again as interest rate differentials and opposed monetary policy put upward pressure on the USD/JPY quotes. And no change is expected soon.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.89, 135.35, 134.23, 133.47, 132.27, 131.08, 130.85
Resistance levels: 137.10, 138.25

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The USD/JPY quotes continue to grow steadily, breaking through all the resistance levels. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 135.89, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is possible to consider the resistance level of 137.10, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 134.23, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2944
Prev Close: 1.2991
% chg. over the last day: +0.36%

Last week, the Canadian dollar suffered the same fate as the other currencies: the US dollar took the lead after markets reacted positively to the July Fed meeting minutes. Oil prices also declined over the week, which had a negative impact on the Canadian currency. But retail sales data helped the Canadian offset some of Friday’s losses, signaling a gradual and consistent improvement in the retail sector.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2858, 1.2809, 1.2761
Resistance levels: 1.3006

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. The buyers’ pressure is still there, but the price is traded before the resistance level, plus the divergence is getting stronger. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2900, but only with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3006, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2858 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Aug

The economic outlook for Europe continues to deteriorate. The People’s Bank of China lowered interest rates again

By JustForex

The US stock indices were trading lower on Friday. By the closing of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.85% (-0.01% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.29% (-0.96% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.01% (-2.24% for the week). Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft all fell, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slowed the most. Higher rates tend to be negative for technology companies and growth stocks.

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that US Central Bank officials still have plenty of time before they need to decide how much to raise interest rates in September. The recovery in US stocks is inspiring confidence among investors. The S&P 500 (US500) rebounded about 16% from its low after its worst first half since 1970, helped by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and hopes the economy can avoid a recession.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.12% (-2.19% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.94% (-1.32% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.09% (-1.05% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up by 0.11% (+0.66% for the week).

In the last few days, Europe has been hit by the rains. Water levels in a key German bottleneck on the Rhine River jumped, easing a crisis that has hampered energy and industrial production this month. An extended period of very hot and dry weather this summer drained Europe’s rivers, disrupting the transportation of goods and energy at a time when the region needs alternative energy sources instead of gas the most. This helped push natural gas prices to record highs, increasing inflationary pain for industries and households and threatening to push Germany into recession.

On Sunday, a senior ministry official said that energy-intensive industries in Italy are also modifying their production to save energy as they struggle with rising bills. Italy recently struck deals with several alternative gas-producing countries to reduce its dependence on Moscow. Those agreements allowed Rome to fill its gas storage facilities quickly, but it was not enough to protect its industry from skyrocketing energy prices.

Oil prices stabilized on Friday but fell over the week because of a stronger US dollar and fears that the economic slowdown would weaken demand for crude oil. The strengthening US dollar hit a five-week high, which limited the rise in oil prices as it makes oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Haitham al-Gais, the new secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, told Reuters he was optimistic about oil demand in 2023.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.04% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.32% for the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 1.17% for the week.

Earlier this year, the COVID-19 shutdown in China disrupted global supply chains, causing delays in shipments and production worldwide and hampering economic growth. Now the country faces another severe threat, and that threat could be even worse for the economy. This month, China is battling its worst heat wave in 60 years. In Sichuan province, home to more than 80 million people, the record-breaking heat wave has exacerbated an ongoing drought that has caused reservoir levels to drop by half this month. As a result, officials announced on Aug. 15 that factories in 19 cities and prefectures would be forced to close for five days to save power.

The People’s Bank Loan Prime Rate rate was cut for the second time in two weeks. The move comes as the bank struggles to stimulate the economy amid headwinds from COVID lockdowns, a debt-laden real estate market, and a looming energy crisis.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+5.84%) and cotton (+3.64%) showed the largest gains over the week. Futures on lumber (-12.23%), silver (-8.37%), platinum (-7.31%), wheat (-6.33%), orange juice (-5. 91%), palladium (-4.03%), coffee (-3.96%), sugar (-3.06%), gold (-3.04%), soybeans (-2.88%), WTI oil (-2.68%), and Brent oil (-2.1%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,228.48 −55.26 (−1.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,706.74 −292.30 (−0.86%)

DAX (DE40) 13,544.52 −152.89 (−1.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,550.37 +8.52 (+0.11%)

USD Index 108.10 +0.62 (+0.58%)

Important events for today:

– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Aug

Trade of the Week: USD Index back above 1.20?

By ForexTime

– Shame on those who doubted the Dollar (at least of late).

The greenback has staged a recovery and is on a quest to revisit recent highs, as markets restore their bets for an ultra-hawkish Fed.

As a result, major G10 currencies are wilting under the weight of the resurgent buck:

EURUSD is flirting with parity again, having last done so in mid-July.
GBPUSD also hit a one-month low, trading around levels not seen since the onset of the pandemic.

Such moves are captured within the equally-weighted US Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance against these six G10 currencies:

As a result, this USD Index is retesting the mid-1.19 resistance levels which had previously repelled dollar bulls in mid-May and mid-June, also around where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level currently sits from its July-august descent.

Whether or not the US dollar can punch higher and break above the psychologically-important 1.20 level could well depend on what’s conveyed out of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week.

What is the Jackson Hole Symposium and why it matters?

Organized by the Kansas City Fed, this year’s gathering will be held from August 25th – 27th in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (though recent symposiums have been held virtually as well due to the pandemic).

This annual conference features the top central bankers, economists, academics, and even government representatives, where they discuss the most important issues facing the global economy, as well as how policymakers could and should respond.

In other words, what is said during this closely-watched symposium has the potential to prompt market participants to move trillions of dollars across asset classes including stocks, bonds, and currencies.

And Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech that’s scheduled for this Friday, August 26th, at 2:00 PM GMT, is set to dominate the market’s collective attention this week.

What Powell says (or doesn’t say) could dictate how global markets perform in the weeks ahead.

What markets want to know out of Jackson Hole?

Markets want to know how much the Fed intends to raise US interest rates for its September meeting, and beyond.

1) As things stand, markets are forecasting a 63.7% chance of yet another 75-basis point (bps) hike by the Fed at its September policy meeting.

Those odds have been increased substantially from 46.8% just from this time last week. Hence, the US dollar rising over the past week in tandem with such restored bets.

If the Fed does proceed with yet another 75bps hike, that would be its third successive supersized hike, following similar 75bps hikes at each of the Fed’s policy meetings back in June and July.

2) Markets also presently believe that that US benchmark rates could go up as high as 3.7% by May 2023, as the Fed continues aggressively raising interest rates to combat multi-decade high inflation.

Major deviations from the above (the existing narrative that markets are holding on to at present) should result in major moves for the US dollar.

Potential scenarios for USD Index:

Should Powell signal that the Fed has to stay aggressive to bring down US inflation (think more 75bps hikes in Q4), that could mean more immediate gains for the US dollar.
If the 1.20536 Fibonacci level can be conquered, then this equally-weighted USD Index could be on the path to revisit the mid-July peak above 1.21.

However, if Powell officially signals that the Fed can start to ease up on its rate hikes on signs that US inflation has peaked, that could prompt the unwinding of last week’s gains for the US dollar.
Support may arrive at the:
– previous cycle high of 1.19102, followed by …
– the next Fib line below at 1.18769
– 50-day simple moving average around 1.183

Despite the Fed’s suggestions to pay less attention to what it says it will do (forward guidance is less meaningful over the immediate term), but instead pay greater heed to the incoming US economic data (such as nonfarm payrolls and CPI), that likely won’t be enough to dissuade forward-looking investors and traders worldwide from reacting to Powell’s policy clues.

In short, don’t be surprised if we see heightened volatility for the US Dollar and the rest of the FX universe as the Jackson Hole symposium looms.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Aug

Forex Speculators boost Canadian Dollar bets to 58-week high while Euro bets drop to 128-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: CAD bets up, Euro bets down

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator positions.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (6,250 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (5,644 contracts), Brazilian real (4,790 contracts), Swiss franc (4,686 contracts), New Zealand dollar (2,045 contracts), British pound sterling (1,359 contracts) and Bitcoin (137 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Euro (-8,248 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-3,859 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,660 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-676 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency changes this week is the Canadian dollar‘s recent gains in the speculator positions. The CAD positions rose this week and have now gained for five straight weeks and in ten out of the past thirteen weeks for a total 13-week gain of +41,363 contracts. The speculative position had fallen into bearish territory from April 26th to June 7th before getting a large sentiment boost by +24,264 contracts on June 14th that flipped the position from bearish to bullish. Since then, the bullish position has steadily increased and this week, reached the most bullish level since July 6th of 2021, a span of fifty-eight weeks.

Euro speculative bets this week, meanwhile, fell for the first time in the past four weeks but made a new low for this recent bearish cycle. Euro bets dropped by over -8,000 contracts this week and have now been in an overall bearish position for the past ten weeks. The decline of bets this week brought the current speculator standing to the most bearish level since March 3rd of 2020, a span of one hundred and twenty-eight weeks. The EURUSD currency pair fell rather sharply to end the week (weekly decline by over -2.00 percent) and closed just a hair above parity at the 1.0041 exchange rate. The EURUSD dropped below parity for a quick time on July 14th with a low of 0.9952 (20-year lows) before staging a rally back over 1.0350 in the following weeks but with deteriorating speculator sentiment, it seems possible the pair will be testing below parity again.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-16-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	58,909	86	37,961	88	-40,673	11	2,712	46
EUR	698,570	81	-42,784	22	20,916	82	21,868	11
GBP	227,752	62	-33,109	46	47,217	59	-14,108	26
JPY	228,697	74	-28,891	51	41,979	56	-13,088	27
CHF	39,407	20	-5,096	44	13,616	65	-8,520	29
CAD	147,596	29	26,867	70	-32,129	42	5,262	41
AUD	160,045	52	-59,248	30	63,470	66	-4,222	42
NZD	41,729	28	1,769	74	195	31	-1,964	29
MXN	201,618	50	-21,371	18	17,803	80	3,568	58
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	38,079	24	6,523	57	-8,659	43	2,136	90
Bitcoin	12,423	69	-93	79	-260	0	353	21

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.2 percent) remains at the highest levels for the currency markets and continues in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (78.6 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (69.5 percent) round out the next highest strength scores in the currency markets. On the downside, the Mexican Peso (18.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The next currencies at the lower range of strength scores are the EuroFX at 21.9 percent and the Australian Dollar at 29.9 percent.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (88.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (89.4 percent)
EuroFX (21.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (24.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (51.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (53.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (43.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (69.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (63.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.6 percent)
Brazil Real (56.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (52.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (76.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Canadian Dollar (25.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The British Pound Sterling (18.0 percent), the Japanese Yen (15.7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (14.8 percent) fill out the other highest movers in the latest trends data. The Australian Dollar (-10.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Brazilian Real (-9.6 percent) followed by Bitcoin (-9.3 percent) and the EuroFX (-8.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.7 percent)
EuroFX (-8.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (18.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (12.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-3.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (25.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-10.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-5.8 percent)
Brazil Real (-9.6 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-34.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-23.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.2	3.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	72.6	3.6
– Net Position:	37,961	-40,673	2,712
– Gross Longs:	50,782	2,078	4,843
– Gross Shorts:	12,821	42,751	2,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	11.2	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	1.3	5.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,248 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	57.3	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	54.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-42,784	20,916	21,868
– Gross Longs:	199,226	400,458	79,589
– Gross Shorts:	242,010	379,542	57,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	82.0	10.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.4	-6.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	68.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	47.8	14.9
– Net Position:	-33,109	47,217	-14,108
– Gross Longs:	44,084	156,167	19,890
– Gross Shorts:	77,193	108,950	33,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	58.7	26.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.0	-17.9	13.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	66.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	48.2	15.1
– Net Position:	-28,891	41,979	-13,088
– Gross Longs:	51,308	152,209	21,465
– Gross Shorts:	80,199	110,230	34,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	56.1	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-10.8	-7.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	55.2	24.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	20.7	46.5
– Net Position:	-5,096	13,616	-8,520
– Gross Longs:	7,773	21,767	9,809
– Gross Shorts:	12,869	8,151	18,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	65.2	28.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-10.3	4.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	39.6	22.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	61.4	18.9
– Net Position:	26,867	-32,129	5,262
– Gross Longs:	51,843	58,476	33,129
– Gross Shorts:	24,976	90,605	27,867
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	42.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.3	-23.0	10.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	69.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	29.6	13.0
– Net Position:	-59,248	63,470	-4,222
– Gross Longs:	28,835	110,918	16,660
– Gross Shorts:	88,083	47,448	20,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	66.2	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	5.8	9.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.1	49.6	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	49.1	10.6
– Net Position:	1,769	195	-1,964
– Gross Longs:	18,412	20,688	2,458
– Gross Shorts:	16,643	20,493	4,422
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	30.7	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-15.9	17.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	42.7	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.5	33.8	1.6
– Net Position:	-21,371	17,803	3,568
– Gross Longs:	108,642	85,997	6,782
– Gross Shorts:	130,013	68,194	3,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	80.2	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	3.2	-3.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.7	22.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	45.4	4.1
– Net Position:	6,523	-8,659	2,136
– Gross Longs:	25,762	8,637	3,679
– Gross Shorts:	19,239	17,296	1,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	42.8	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	8.5	12.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.7	2.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.5	4.1	6.8
– Net Position:	-93	-260	353
– Gross Longs:	9,284	250	1,202
– Gross Shorts:	9,377	510	849
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	42.6	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	11.7	7.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

20 Aug

COT Metals Speculators raise Platinum bullish bets higher for 3rd week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: Platinum bullish bets rise

COT precious metals speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (2,094 contracts) with Silver (629 contracts), Palladium (371 contracts) and Copper (257 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-1,687 contracts) on the week.

Highlighting the metals data this week is that Platinum speculator bets that have bounced back a bit over the past three weeks after a recent down-streak that put the position in negative territory. The Platinum large speculator positions rose this week for a third straight week and for the fourth time over the past five weeks. This recent uptick has pulled the overall position out of a bearish level that had held from June 28th to August 2nd. This week, the current position increased into a small bullish level of +2,940 contracts. The Platinum futures price, meanwhile, took a step back this week with a loss. The futures had previously seen four straight weekly gains before closing the week below the $900.00 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-16-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,557,349	0	214,940	1	-239,291	100	24,351	48
Gold	453,960	0	141,164	19	-153,709	84	12,545	4
Silver	144,314	11	3,508	10	-12,451	90	8,943	12
Copper	183,500	17	-28,220	22	28,932	79	-712	21
Palladium	7,951	7	-1,599	14	1,536	83	63	48
Platinum	57,254	17	2,940	12	-6,361	90	3,421	10
Natural Gas	983,460	5	-120,911	42	82,862	57	38,049	70
Brent	176,902	21	-36,012	51	34,290	50	1,722	33
Heating Oil	296,987	34	24,926	79	-40,022	29	15,096	51
Soybeans	595,095	5	83,183	39	-51,650	68	-31,533	18
Corn	1,316,462	1	220,129	58	-166,318	48	-53,811	12
Coffee	190,302	0	33,471	68	-35,318	37	1,847	16
Sugar	737,535	7	49,970	47	-61,837	56	11,867	23
Wheat	313,237	11	-1,908	17	7,448	70	-5,540	82