Bitcoin kicked of the week charging through a significant resistance level at 42053.06, signalling the start of a potential uptrend on the daily timeframe.
This was confirmed by the most recent higher bottom and higher top created in yesterday’s trading session. Despite the bullish outlook, bears are currently busy with a correction wave and will be aiming at the weekly resistance turned support to test the bullish resolve.
Nevertheless, this sets up possible long opportunities on lower time frames if the bulls can regain their momentum and keep on dominating the market.
On the 4-hour chart a beautiful uptrend is in progress with consecutively higher tops and bottom in place. The price is also above the 50 Linear Weighted Moving Average with the Momentum and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillators in clear bullish terrain.
If the price reaches the 43865.08 level, yet another higher top will be in process, and this presents a long opportunity.
Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 43865.08 and dragging it to the last higher bottom at 41597.80, four possible conservative targets can be determined:
Target 1: 44771.99
Target 2: 45225.45
Target 3: 46132.36
Target 4: 47266.00
If the price breaks past the 41597.80 level, this opportunity is no longer feasible, and a short opportunity might become possible from a 4-hour market structure point of view.
After hours of routine operations, an air traffic controller gets a radio call from a small aircraft whose cockpit indicators can’t confirm that the plane’s landing gear is extended for landing. The controller arranges for the pilot to fly low by the tower so the controller can visually check the plane’s landing gear. All appears well. “It looks like your gear is down,” the controller tells the pilot.
The controller calls for the airport fire trucks to be ready just in case, and the aircraft circles back to land safely. Scenarios like this play out regularly. In the air traffic control system, everything must meet the highest levels of safety, but not everything goes according to plan.
Contrast this with the still science-fiction vision of future artificial intelligence “pilots” flying autonomous aircraft, complete with an autonomous air traffic control system handling aircraft as easily as routers shuttling data packets on the internet.
I’m an aerospace engineer who led a National Academies study ordered by Congress about air traffic controller staffing. Researchers are continually working on new technologies that automate elements of the air traffic control system, but technology can execute only those functions that are planned for during its design and so can’t modify standard procedures. As the scenario above illustrates, humans are likely to remain a necessary central component of air traffic control for a long time to come.
What air traffic controllers do
The Federal Aviation Administration’s fundamental guidance for the responsibility of air traffic controllers states: “The primary purpose of the air traffic control system is to prevent a collision involving aircraft.” Air traffic controllers are also charged with providing “a safe, orderly and expeditious flow of air traffic” and other services supporting safety, such as helping pilots avoid mountains and other hazardous terrain and hazardous weather, to the extent they can.
Air traffic controllers’ jobs vary. Tower controllers provide the local control that clears aircraft to take off and land, making sure that they are spaced safely apart. They also provide ground control, directing aircraft to taxi and notifying pilots of flight plans and potential safety concerns on that day before flight. Tower controllers are aided by some displays but mostly look outside from the towers and talk with pilots via radio. At larger airports staffed by FAA controllers, surface surveillance displays show controllers the aircraft and other vehicles on the ground on the airfield.
This FAA animation explains the three basic components of the U.S. air traffic control system.
Approach and en route controllers, on the other hand, sit in front of large displays in dark and quiet rooms. They communicate with pilots via radio. Their displays show aircraft locations on a map view with key features of the airspace boundaries and routes.
The 21 en route control centers in the U.S. manage traffic that is between and above airports and thus typically flying at higher speeds and altitudes.
Controllers at approach control facilities transition departing aircraft from local control after takeoff up and into en route airspace. They similarly take arriving aircraft from en route airspace, line them up with the landing approach and hand them off to tower controllers.
A controller at each display manages all the traffic within a sector. Sectors can vary in size from a few cubic miles, focused on sequencing aircraft landing at a busy airport, to en route sectors spanning more than 30,000 cubic miles (125,045 cubic km) where and when there are few aircraft flying. If a sector gets busy, a second and even third controller might assist, or the sector might be split into two, with another display and controller team managing the second.
How technology can help
Air traffic controllers have a stressful job and are subject to fatigue and information overload. Public concern about a growing number of close calls have put a spotlight on aging technology and staffing shortages that have led to air traffic controllers working mandatory overtime. New technologies can help alleviate those issues.
The air traffic control system is incorporating new technologies in several ways. The FAA’s NextGen air transportation system initiative is providing controllers with more – and more accurate – information.
Controllers’ displays originally showed only radar tracking. They now can tap into all the data known about each flight within the en route automation modernization system. This system integrates radar, automatic position reports from aircraft via automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast, weather reports, flight plans and flight histories.
Systems help alert controllers to potential conflicts between aircraft, or aircraft that are too close to high ground or structures, and provide suggestions to controllers to sequence aircraft into smooth traffic flows. In testimony to the U.S. Senate on Nov. 9, 2023, about airport safety, FAA Chief Operating Officer Timothy Arel said that the administration is developing or improving several air traffic control systems.
New technology can also cause profound changes to air traffic control in the form of new types of aircraft. For example, current regulations mostly limit uncrewed aircraft to fly lower than 400 feet (122 meters) above ground and away from airports. These are drones used by first responders, news organizations, surveyors, delivery services and hobbyists.
NASA and the FAA are leading the development of a traffic control system for drones and other uncrewed aircraft.
However, some emerging uncrewed aircraft companies are proposing to fly in controlled airspace. Some plan to have their aircraft fly regular flight routes and interact normally with air traffic controllers via voice radio. These include Reliable Robotics and Xwing, which are separately working to automate the Cessna Caravan, a small cargo airplane.
Others are targeting new business models, such as advanced air mobility, the concept of small, highly automated electric aircraft – electric air taxis, for example. These would require dramatically different routes and procedures for handling air traffic.
Expect the unexpected
An air traffic controller’s routine can be disrupted by an aircraft that requires special handling. This could range from an emergency to priority handling of medical flights or Air Force One. Controllers are given the responsibility and the flexibility to adapt how they manage their airspace.
The requirements for the front line of air traffic control are a poor match for AI’s capabilities. People expect air traffic to continue to be the safest complex, high-technology system ever. It achieves this standard by adhering to procedures when practical, which is something AI can do, and by adapting and exercising good judgment whenever something unplanned occurs or a new operation is implemented – a notable weakness of today’s AI.
Indeed, it is when conditions are the worst – when controllers figure out how to handle aircraft with severe problems, airport crises or widespread airspace closures due to security concerns or infrastructure failures – that controllers’ contributions to safety are the greatest.
Also, controllers don’t fly the aircraft. They communicate and interact with others to guide the aircraft, and so their responsibility is fundamentally to serve as part of a team – another notable weakness of AI.
As an engineer and designer, I’m most excited about the potential for AI to analyze the big data records of past air traffic operations in pursuit of, for example, more efficient routes of flight. However, as a pilot, I’m glad to hear a controller’s calm voice on the radio helping me land quickly and safely should I have a problem.
The NAS100 is set to make significant moves over the next few days as 5 of the so-called “Magnificent 7” tech titans report quarterly earnings.
Microsoft and Alphabet kick-off updates after US markets close on Tuesday to an incredibly busy week for US equities.
On Thursday, Apple, Amazon, and Meta are scheduled to publish their latest results.
When factoring the Fed decision mid-week and the US jobs report on Friday, this could be a pivotal week for the index.
With advancement in Artificial Intelligence fueling growth in the Magnificent 7 companies, a bullish earnings guidance could be on the cards.
This may influence NAS100 bulls – those looking to see the index move higher.
NOTE: This new NAS100 index tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index.
Technically speaking, NAS100 is in a sideways range formed over the last 7 trading days.
At the time of writing, it is testing the resistance zone of this range.
The Relative strength index (an indicator that highlights overbought and oversold zones) reveals that NAS100 is overbought.
NAS100 bulls will be looking for a strong close above the channel at 17650.4, with their eyes set no new highs above the all-time high of 17686.8.
Bears (those looking to see the index decline) on the other hand will see a miss in earnings as an opportunity to test the range’s support zone at 17306.2.
A strong close below the range support zone may see the index test the following support levels
· 17105.1: The 21-Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
· 17008.8: The upward-sloping trendline drawn from the October 26th low
The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing minimal fluctuations as it consolidates around 1.0840 this Monday. The focus of market players is squarely on the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which is poised to be the week’s pivotal event. The outcome of this meeting is highly anticipated, as the Fed will disclose whether it plans to lower interest rates in March or opt for a more cautious approach, delaying any changes until May.
This meeting is significant as the Federal Reserve is expected to be the first major central bank in this cycle of stringent policies to initiate a softening of monetary conditions. This prospect has injected a sense of heightened anticipation into the currency markets.
Later in the week, additional attention will be on the release of US labor market statistics for January. Key indicators to watch include the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), forecasted to show a rise of 173 thousand – a slowdown from the previous 216 thousand. Additionally, average hourly earnings are projected to exhibit a 0.3% month-over-month increase, slightly down from the prior 0.4% increase.
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, a downward trend towards 1.0793 is emerging. Following this target, a corrective move to 1.0833, testing from below, is possible before a further decline to 1.0737. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing downwards.
In the H1 chart analysis, the pair has completed a correction to 1.0884 and has started a new downward movement towards 1.0839. A consolidation range is expected to form around this level. If the pair breaks below this range, the decline could continue to 1.0803. The Stochastic oscillator, currently at the 50 mark, indicates a potential drop to 20, aligning with this downward trend scenario.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.16% (+0.50% for the week) and had risen to a new record high. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.07% on Friday (-0.07% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Friday negative by 0.36% (+0.40% for the week). Friday’s economic reports on personal spending for December and home sales for December were better than expected, and price pressures eased after the core PCE deflator for December — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — showed the slowest pace in 2 years.
The US core PCE deflator for December eased to 2.9% y/y from 3.2% y/y in November, better than expectations of 3.0% y/y. US home sales for December rose by 8.3% m/m, beating expectations of 2.0% m/m and the largest increase in 3 years. Currently, markets are discounting the odds of a 25 bps rate cut of 3% at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 and 48% for the same 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20 meeting.
Intel (INTC) shares fell by more than 11%, topping the S&P 500 (US500), Dow Jones Industrials (US30), and Nasdaq 100 (US100) list of losers after the company projected adjusted first-quarter revenue of $12.2-13.2 billion well below the consensus forecast of $14.25 billion. American Express (AXP) is up more than 7%, leading the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones Industrials (US30), after the company projected 2024 EPS of $12.65-$13.15, which was stronger than the consensus forecast of $12.40.
Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.32% (+1.66% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 2.28% (+2.66% for the week) on Friday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.20% (+0.22% for the week) on Friday, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 1.40% (+2.32% for the week).
The German February GfK Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly fell by 4.3 to an 11-month low of negative 29.7, weaker than expectations of a rise to negative 24.6. Eurozone M3 Money Supply for December unexpectedly rose by 0.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of negative 0.7% y/y and the first increase in six months.
ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks said on Friday that while interest rates should start to fall, in the absence of any major shocks, the ECB’s biggest mistake could be premature easing, which would allow inflation to bounce back. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on March 7 at 18% and at the April 11 meeting at 87%.
WTI crude futures jumped to $79 a barrel on Monday, hitting their highest level in two months, as a Houthi attack on a Trafigura fuel tanker in the Red Sea heightened fears of further supply disruptions. The oil tanker was hit by a missile off the coast of Yemen on Friday, prompting commodities trader Trafigura to reassess the security risk of further Red Sea voyages. OPEC and its allies will meet online on February 1, and the group is not expected to adopt changes to its production plan.
Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.50% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 2.16% over 5 trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 3.93%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 2.84%.
The December Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting minutes showed that policymakers actively discussed the terms of the gradual withdrawal of stimulus and agreed to deepen the discussion on the appropriate pace of future interest rate hikes. The minutes were released after the BoJ said on Tuesday it was increasingly confident that conditions for phasing out its huge stimulus measures were becoming more favorable, suggesting it would soon take short-term interest rates out of negative territory. The Bank of Japan may retain control over bond yields as a loose basis even after it takes short-term rates out of negative territory, according to the December minutes.
New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed to USD 0.323 billion in December 2023 from USD 0.651 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year. Exports declined by 8.7% y/y to US$5.9 billion. Among major trading partners, exports declined to China (-16%), Australia (-0.8%), the US (-4.6%), the EU (-20%) and Japan (-17%). At the same time, imports fell by 13% to $6.3 billion. Imports from China (-12%), EU (-14%), Australia (-9.8%), US (-40%) and South Korea (-113%) declined. On the other hand, purchases of oil and petroleum products increased by 115%.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
After swinging within a 200-pip range since mid-December, the GBPUSD could be on the verge of a big move.
This may be triggered by a selection of high-risk events featuring central bank decisions and key economic data. In addition, the symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily charts has the potential to intensify the direction of any breakout/down opportunity.
In the G10 space, Sterling has held its ground against the dollar year-to-date thanks to the BoE’s relatively hawkish tone amid stubborn inflation.
Nevertheless, the GBP and USD remain trapped in a fierce tug of war with a fresh catalyst needed to shift the scales of power in one direction.
Here are 3 factors that could trigger a breakout in the GBPUSD:
BoE rate decision
On Thursday 1st February, the Bank of England (BoE) will meet for the first time this year to decide on interest rates. This will be accompanied by the minutes of the meeting, the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), and MPC press conference.
Markets widely expect the BoE to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for a fourth straight meeting. Although there has been evidence of disinflation, hawks remain in the building with the central bank not expected to kick off its easing cycle until Summer.
Traders are currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 25-basis point cut by May 2024, with a cut by June 2024 fully priced in.
If the BoE sounds hawkish and pushes back on rate-cut bets, this could boost GBPUSD.
A dovish-sounding BoE that hints at potential cuts down the road could weaken GBPUSD.
Fed rate decision + NFP
Over the United States, the Federal Reserve meeting and US jobs data could rock the dollar.
The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week but the odd of a March rate cut has now moved to roughly 50% according to Fed Fund futures. Regarding the NFP report, the US economy is expected to have created 180,000 jobs in December compared to 216,000 in the previous month. Ultimately, this combo of heavy-hitting events could translate to increased volatility for the USD – influencing the GBPUSD as a result.
Should the Fed meeting and jobs data support the dollar, this may pull the GBPUSD lower.
A dovish-sounding Fed and soft data is dollar bearish, providing support for GBPUSD.
Technical forces
The GBPUSD has entered standby mode with prices bound within a symmetrical triangle pattern.
Bulls and bears remain entangled in a fierce battle despite prices trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. Major resistance can be found at 1.2800 and support at 1.2600.
A decisive breakout above 1.2760 may open the doors towards 1.2800 and levels not seen since July 2023 at 1.2850.
Should prices drop below the 50-day SMA at 1.2666, bears may be inspired to attack 1.2600 and the 200-day SMA at 1.2557.
The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 23rd.
This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.
To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)
Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:
3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate
The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 2.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 769,187 net contracts this week with a rise of 17,969 contract in the weekly speculator bets.
Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.
1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate
The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 96.1 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.3 this week. The speculator position registered 113,224 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -14,693 contracts in speculator bets.
Gasoline
The Gasoline speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Gasoline speculator level resides at a 95.0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 13.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 73,741 net contracts this week with an increase by 4,664 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Nasdaq speculator level is at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 38.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 33,042 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,529 contracts in the speculator bets.
DowJones Mini
The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level sits at a 90.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 24.2 this week.
The speculator position was 18,248 net contracts this week with a decrease of 861 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:
Soybean Meal
The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -53.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -20,616 net contracts this week with a drop of -9,374 contracts in the speculator bets.
Palladium
The Palladium speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.7 this week. The speculator position was -11,617 net contracts this week with an edge down by -168 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Soybeans
The Soybeans speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybeans speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -34.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -105,994 net contracts this week with a decline of -12,326 contracts in the speculator bets.
Corn
The Corn speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.5 this week. The speculator position was -219,200 net contracts this week with a small gain of 768 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Soybean Oil
Finally, the Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 5.2 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.0 this week. The speculator position was -25,358 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,229 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
In chemistry, structure is everything. Compounds with the same chemical formula can have different properties depending on the arrangement of the molecules they’re made of. And compounds with a different chemical formula but a similar molecular arrangement can have similar properties.
Graphene and a form of boron nitride called hexagonal boron nitride fall into the latter group. Graphene is made up of carbon atoms. Boron nitride, BN, is composed of boron and nitrogen atoms. While their chemical formulas differ, they have a similar structure – so similar that many chemists call hexagonal boron nitride “white graphene.”
Carbon-based graphene has lots of useful properties. It’s thin but strong, and it conducts heat and electricity very well, making it ideal for use in electronics.
Similarly, hexagonal boron nitride has a host of properties similar to graphene that could improve biomedical imaging and drug delivery, as well as computers, smartphones and LEDs. Researchers have studied this type of boron nitride for many years.
But, hexagonal boron nitride isn’t the only useful form this compound comes in.
As materials engineers, our research team has been investigating another type of boron nitride called cubic boron nitride. We want to know if combining the properties of hexagonal boron nitride with cubic boron nitride could open the door to even more useful applications.
Hexagonal boron nitride is, as you might guess, boron nitride molecules arranged in the shape of a flat hexagon. It looks honeycomb-shaped, like graphene. Cubic boron nitride has a three-dimensional lattice structure and looks like a diamond at the molecular level.
H-BN is thin, soft and used in cosmetics to give them a silky texture. It doesn’t melt or degrade even under extreme heat, which also makes it useful in electronics and other applications. Some scientists predict it could be used to build a radiation shield for spacecraft.
C-BN is hard and resistant. It’s used in manufacturing to make cutting tools and drills, and it can keep its sharp edge even at high temperatures. It can also help dissipate heat in electronics.
Even though h-BN and c-BN might seem different, when put together, our research has found they hold even more potential than either on its own.
The two forms of boron nitride have some similarities and some differences, but when combined, they can create a substance with a variety of scientific applications. Abhijit Biswas
Both types of boron nitride conduct heat and can provide electrical insulation, but one, h-BN, is soft, and the other, c-BN, is hard. So, we wanted to see if they could be used together to create materials with interesting properties.
For example, combining their different behaviors could make a coating material effective for high temperature structural applications. C-BN could provide strong adhesion to a surface, while h-BN’s lubricating properties could resist wear and tear. Both together would keep the material from overheating.
Making boron nitride
This class of materials doesn’t occur naturally, so scientists must make it in the lab. In general, high-quality c-BN has been difficult to synthesize, whereas h-BN is relatively easier to make as high-quality films, using what are called vapor phase deposition methods.
In vapor phase deposition, we heat up boron and nitrogen-containing materials until they evaporate. The evaporated molecules then get deposited onto a surface, cool down, bond together and form a thin film of BN.
Our research team has worked on combining h-BN and c-BN using similar processes to vapor phase deposition, but we can also mix powders of the two together. The idea is to build a material with the right mix of h-BN and c-BN for thermal, mechanical and electronic properties that we can fine-tune.
Our team has found the composite substance made from combining both forms of BN together has a variety of potential applications. When you point a laser beam at the substance, it flashes brightly. Researchers could use this property to create display screens and improve radiation therapies in the medical field.
We’ve also found we can tailor how heat-conductive the composite material is. This means engineers could use this BN composite in machines that manage heat. The next step is trying to manufacture large plates made of a h-BN and c-BN composite. If done precisely, we can tailor the mechanical, thermal and optical properties to specific applications.
C-BN could work alongside diamond to create ultrawide band gap materials that allow electronic devices to work at a much higher power. Diamond and c-BN both conduct heat well, and together they could help cool down these high-power devices, which generate lots of extra heat.
H-BN and c-BN separately could lead to electronics that perform exceptionally well in different contexts – together, they have a host of potential applications, as well.
Our BN composite could improve heat spreaders and insulators, and it could work in energy storage machines like supercapacitors, which are fast-charging energy storage devices, and rechargeable batteries.
We’ll continue studying BN’s properties, and how we can use it in lubricants, coatings and wear-resistant surfaces. Developing ways to scale up production will be key for exploring its applications, from materials science to electronics and even environmental science.
At Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.53% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.18%. Stock indices are moderately rising as signs of resilience in the US economy ease recession fears and strengthen prospects for a soft landing. Q4 GDP rose by 3.3% (annualized), beating expectations of 2.0%. New home sales for December rose by 8.0% m/m to 664,000, stronger than expectations of 649,000. On the downside, Initial Jobless Claims for the week rose 25,000 to 214,000, indicating a weak labor market versus expectations of 200,000.
Tesla (TSLA) is down by more than 10% after reporting weaker-than-expected adjusted earnings per share for Q4 and stating that vehicle volume growth in 2024 could be markedly lower than in 2023. Health insurer stocks are also down, led by a 13% drop in Humana (HUM) shares after it projected 2024 adjusted earnings well below consensus and withdrew its 2025 earnings target. Boeing (BA) fell more than 6% yesterday, topping the Dow Jones (US30) losers list after the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) halted a planned increase in production of the Boeing 737 Max airliner.
Today, the US will release data on the PCE index, which is considered the favorite inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve. The PCE index differs from the CPI in that it measures only goods and services intended for and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditures for each item, which provides an important insight into consumer behavior. Following the CPI and PPI reports, economists expect the core PCE deflator to fall below 3% y/y for the first time since March 2021. Therefore, a decline in the PCE index is likely to harm the dollar index, lending confidence to risk assets and indices. On the contrary, if the PCE data points to growth, the US dollar will get additional support, which will hurt indices and gold.
Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.11% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.58%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.03%.
Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index for January unexpectedly fell by 1.1 to a 3-year low of 85.2, weaker than expectations of a rise to 86.6. The European Central Bank, as expected, left its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.50% and said that this level should be maintained for a long enough time to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% level in time. ECB President Lagarde stated that the Eurozone economy will likely stagnate in the last quarter of 2023. Ms. Lagarde also added that borrowing costs could be lowered in the summer.
WTI crude futures rose sharply on Thursday as China “hinted” to the Houthis that it would worsen business relations with Beijing if they did not stop attacking ships in the Red Sea. That helped ease market fears of supply disruptions. The US crude stockpiles fell by 9.2 million barrels last week, beating market expectations and marking the biggest decline since August. The drop in inventories is also helping to boost oil prices.
Natural gas prices initially rose on Thursday after the EIA reported that natural gas inventories fell by 326 billion cubic feet last week, beating expectations of 318 billion cubic feet. However, prices gave up gains and declined after NatGasWeather reported that temperatures in the US would remain “exceptionally warm” from February 1 to February 8, reducing demand for gas for heating.
Asian markets rallied strongly yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) for yesterday rose by 0.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 1.75%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended Thursday up by 1.96% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.48%.
The core consumer price index in Tokyo, Japan, came in at an annualized 1.6% in January 2024, slowing from 2.1% in December and below market expectations of 1.9%. January’s reading was also the lowest since March 2022 and below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time since May 2022, breaking 19 months of above-target readings. The easing of inflationary pressures is mainly due to lower energy prices. This increases the likelihood that the BOJ will keep monetary policy accommodating. Nevertheless, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently said that the probability of sustainably achieving the 2% inflation target through wage growth is gradually increasing and that the central bank will review its massive stimulus program if this trend continues.
S&P 500 (US500) 4,894.16 +25.61 (+0.53%)
Dow Jones (US30) 38,049.13 +242.74 (+0.64%)
DAX (DE40) 16,906.92 +17.00 (+0.10%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,529.73 +2.06 (+0.03%)
USD Index 103.48 +0.25 (+0.24%)
News feed for 2024.01.26:
– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Markets may experience heightened levels of volatility due to the scheduled releases and high-risk events. Our focus falls on the USDInd which seems to be waiting for a potent fundamental spark.
The USD Index tracks how the dollar is performing against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.
Interestingly, the dollar has appreciated against almost all G10 currencies year-to-date.
Dollar bulls has been supported by cooling bets around the Fed cutting rates in Q1 amid strong US economic data.
With all the above said, the USD Index could see a significant move due to these 4 key factors:
Fed Decision
According to markets, the March meeting could be a close call with traders currently pricing in a 50% probability of a US rate cut – according to Fed Fund futures.
Note: The incoming PCE report this afternoon could impact these odds.
Initial expectations around the Fed cutting rates earlier than expected were cooled by stronger-than-expected US economic data over the past few weeks. With this said, much attention will be directed towards Powell’s press conference for any clues on future rate moves.
Even if the Fed holds back on cutting rates in March, this meeting may set the stage for a cut in May.
The USDInd could strengthen if the Fed pushes back on rate cut bets and offers little insight on future moves.
Should the central bank sound strike a dovish tone, decide to cut rates or signal a rate cut in May, this may weaken the USDInd.
US Treasury quarterly refunding
This is when the US government announces its plans for debt auctions for the quarter ahead.
It is worth noting that this event has sparked volatility in the US bond markets in the past, impacting the dollar as a result.
Note: Falling Bond Prices –> Rising Yields –> Appreciating Dollar (vice versa)
In the last quarterly refinancing on the 1st of November, the Treasury announced a lower-than-expected refunding estimate. This along with other factors sparked a selloff on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, dragging yields below 4% by the end of 2023 – coinciding with the selloff on the USDInd.
Note: There were other forces at play weakening the dollar, primarily the Fed’s dovish pivot.
Should the announcement from the Treasury push US yields higher, this could provide the USDInd a boost.
An announcement that results in a selloff in US yields has the potential to stimulate dollar bears, hitting the USDInd as a result.
US December nonfarm payrolls (NFP)
Markets expect the US economy to have created 185,000 jobs in December, compared with the 216,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.7% while average earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% MoM compared with 0.4% in the prior month.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report could cool rate cut bets, pushing the USDInd higher as a result.
However, evidence of a cooling US jobs market could reinforce expectations around lower US rates – pulling the USDInd lower.
Technical forces
The USDInd has been trapped within multiple ranges on the daily charts with prices entangled by the 200 and 50-day SMA. It looks like the index needs a potent fundamental or technical spark to get the engines running.
A solid breakout and daily close above 103.70 could trigger an incline towards the 100-day SMA at 104.40 and 105.00.
Should prices break below the 50-day SMA at 103.00, bears could be encouraged to target 102.10 and 101.35.
Article by ForexTime
