InvestMacro

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.31%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.08%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.66%. After Wednesday’s close, the US market maintained a positive tone thanks to strong earnings from Nvidia. Nvidia’s quarterly revenue exceeded $81 billion, beating market expectations and confirming sustained high demand for artificial‑intelligence infrastructure. However, the revenue outlook for the July quarter – around $91 billion – was less optimistic than some analysts expected, slightly cooling investor enthusiasm. Additional market support came from signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz after reports that three supertankers managed to leave the region with full oil cargoes.

The minutes of the April meeting of the FOMC showed that most Federal Reserve officials remain concerned about persistently high inflation and believe that further monetary tightening may become necessary if price growth continues to exceed the 2% target. Markets paid particular attention to the shift in tone within the Committee: many participants supported removing language implying a bias toward future policy easing – interpreted as an additional hawkish signal. This reflects growing concern that inflationary pressure, especially related to rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, may prove more persistent than previously expected.

Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.70%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.99%.

On Wednesday, silver prices broke above $76 per ounce, reacting to positive signals about a potential agreement between the US and Iran. The decline in the geopolitical premium in oil prices eased concerns about long‑term inflationary pressure, reducing expectations of aggressive monetary tightening.
WTI crude‑oil futures fell sharply by more than 5%, dropping below the psychological level of $100 per barrel. The main driver of the decline was optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump about the final stage of negotiations with Iran, which could lead to a rapid end to the conflict and the lifting of the maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Additional stabilization signals came from satellite data showing three supertankers passing through the strait, indicating a potential easing of logistical restrictions.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.23%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down 0.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped 1.26%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar fell to 0.71 USD, fully losing the gains of the previous session. The main disappointment for AUD buyers came from fresh Australian labor‑market data. Seasonally adjusted unemployment unexpectedly jumped to 4.5% in April, up from 4.3% in March and above analyst expectations – the highest level since November 2021. The reason was a sharp drop in employment: jobs fell by 18,600 (to 14.74 million), while the market expected an increase of 17,500. This first decline in employment in five months undermined investor confidence that the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise the cash rate to 4.6% at the June meeting.

The New Zealand dollar is holding near 0.586 USD, balancing between strong domestic data and unpredictable rhetoric from the White House. A powerful domestic driver came from fresh Stats NZ data: New Zealand’s trade surplus in April 2026 surged to an all‑time record of 1.92 billion NZD (prediction: 980 million). Exports rose 12% to 8.6 billion, driven by strong dairy, beef, and aluminum sales to the US and EU, while imports increased only 3.4% (to 6.7 billion), indicating weak domestic demand. Markets now price in a 30% probability of a rate hike at the end of May and a 90% probability of tightening in July, as the prolonged fuel crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to accelerate imported inflation.

At its May 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 5.25%, marking the first tightening since April 2024. The decision, accompanied by increases in deposit rates to 4.75% and lending rates to 6.0%, was driven by the need to support the national currency, which has fallen 2.2% since late April to 17,700 rupiah per dollar, and to curb imported‑inflation risks.

On Tuesday, US stock indices continued to decline amid the ongoing sell‑off in US Treasury bonds and rising investor concerns about inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.67%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.67%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.61%. Pressure on the market intensified due to rising bond yields, as investors fear that high energy prices may force the Federal Reserve to maintain tight monetary policy for longer.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.38 per US dollar amid a decline in core inflation in Canada, which strengthened expectations that the Bank of Canada will continue to take a cautious approach and will not respond to rising energy prices with policy tightening. Despite headline inflation accelerating to 2.8% in April due to higher gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict, the key core inflation indicators monitored by the regulator fell more than expected, reaching their lowest levels in the past five years. This reinforced the market’s view that inflationary pressure outside the energy sector remains limited.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.07%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.48%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.07%.

WTI oil prices fell to around 103 dollars per barrel, partially pulling back after the recent rally. Pressure on prices emerged after US President Trump stated that he had canceled a planned military strike on Iran following requests from Gulf states and amid signs of a possible return to negotiations. Previously, oil had been supported by more than a week of gains driven by stalled US-Iran talks and the effective restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for global oil trade. An additional factor was a new US authorization allowing the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers, which added expectations of increased short‑term supply to the market.

Palladium prices (XPD) stabilized near 1,400 dollars per ounce, pausing their decline after reaching a seven‑week low. The market was supported by easing pressure on the precious metals sector after signs of possible progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. This somewhat reduced concerns about further increases in energy prices and the risk of a prolonged period of high interest rates. At the same time, the fundamental situation in the palladium market remains relatively tight. Concerns about limited supply from key producers continue to support prices. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan expects that palladium prices will rise to 1,600 dollars per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.44%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 0.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 1.17%.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan strengthened slightly to around 6.81 per dollar, partially recovering after the previous session’s decline. The Chinese currency was supported by the decision of the People’s Bank of China to keep key lending rates unchanged: the one‑year LPR remained at 3.0%, and the five‑year LPR stayed at 3.5%. This marks the twelfth consecutive month without changes, reflecting the cautious approach of Chinese authorities amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

On Monday, the US stock indices closed mixed amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.32%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.07%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.45%. The main pressure on the market came from the technology sector, which was the worst performer of the day, while shares of energy, financial companies, and consumer‑staples producers rose thanks to high commodity prices and demand for safe‑haven assets.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 1.49%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.44%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.75%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 1.26%. Market sentiment improved amid new signals of possible diplomatic progress in the Middle East conflict. Iran reported that it had sent a response to the updated US proposal for ending the war.

According to preliminary data, Switzerland’s economy grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, accelerating from 0.2% at the end of 2025. This was the strongest quarterly growth in the past year and indicates a steady recovery after a brief slowdown. Currency dynamics also played a role: during periods of heightened geopolitical tension, the franc traditionally strengthens as a safe‑haven asset, supporting demand for it.

WTI oil prices ended an extremely volatile session near 106 dollars per barrel, retracing most of the initial gains amid conflicting signals about a possible agreement between the US and Iran. Pressure on prices early in the session intensified after Iranian media reported that Washington had allegedly proposed a temporary easing of oil sanctions until a final peace agreement is reached. Later, prices turned upward again after Axios reported that Iran had sent an updated peace proposal, although the White House, according to media reports, considered it insufficient. Despite diplomatic signals, the market remains extremely tense, as the Strait of Hormuz is still restricted for shipping, and attacks on energy infrastructure continue to disrupt oil production and supply.

The US natural‑gas prices (XNG/USD) held near 3.02 dollars per MMBtu, remaining close to their highest levels in the past seven weeks amid expectations of rising demand and ongoing production cuts. The main support for the market comes from expectations of hot weather in the southern and eastern United States, where higher temperatures are expected to increase electricity consumption for air conditioning, and thus boost gas demand from power companies. Market attention was also drawn to reports that the first shipments of US LNG since February 2025 are expected to arrive in China in June, which may signal a gradual recovery in export demand.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.11%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 1.45%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) fell to around 0.71 US dollars, losing part of the previous session’s gains after signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia about rising inflation risks. RBA Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter warned that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East and the continued rise in energy prices may lead to inflation expectations becoming anchored above the target level. In that case, the regulator may have to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than previously expected, even despite the risk of a more pronounced economic slowdown.

On Friday, US stock indices fell sharply amid growing investor concerns about the consequences of the prolonged conflict with Iran. Market participants fear that further increases in energy prices will intensify inflationary pressure and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer.
By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.07% (weekly result -0.05%). The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 1.24% (weekly result +0.31%). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.54% (weekly result -0.21%). Pressure intensified due to profit‑taking in the technology sector after a prolonged rally driven by artificial intelligence.

The largest declines were seen among semiconductor and memory‑chip manufacturers: Intel shares fell by 5%, AMD dropped by 3%, and Micron Technology lost 4%. Nvidia declined about 2%. The exception was Microsoft, whose shares rose 4% after Bill Ackman announced that Pershing Square had opened a position in the company. Boeing shares continued to fall, losing another 3%, as investors reacted cautiously to Donald Trump’s statement that China intends to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft, viewing the figure as only slightly above previously expected delivery volumes.

In mid‑May, the Mexican peso weakened to around 17.3 per US dollar amid a stronger US currency and rising US Treasury yields. Pressure on the peso also came from weak domestic macroeconomic data. Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.8% in the first quarter, worse than market expectations, increasing concerns about slowing economic activity. Although the Bank of Mexico previously cut the key rate to 6.5%, the regulator indicated that the easing cycle is likely nearing its end. The central bank adopted a more cautious stance due to inflation risks driven by high oil and fuel prices, which limit room for further rate cuts.
The Canadian dollar weakened slightly to around 1.37 per US dollar, extending its decline after reaching a seven‑week high at the end of April. Pressure on the Canadian currency increased amid US dollar strength following higher‑than‑expected US inflation data. Additional support for the US dollar comes from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, rising oil prices partially limit the Canadian dollar’s decline, as Canada’s economy and currency traditionally benefit from a stronger commodity sector and higher export revenues.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell to around 76,000 dollars, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks amid deteriorating global risk appetite due to the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Another negative factor was a large capital outflow from US spot bitcoin ETFs: investors withdrew more than 1 billion dollars over the past week, marking the first weekly outflow of this magnitude since late January.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 2.07% (weekly result -1.57%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 1.60% (weekly result -1.45%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 1.05% (weekly result -1.58%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 1.71% (weekly result -0.37%).
On Friday, WTI oil prices rose more than 4.5%, climbing to around 106 dollars per barrel, with weekly gains reaching roughly 11% amid the continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The market remains under severe strain due to the threat of disruptions to global oil supplies, as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have yielded no results. Limited tanker movement through the strait is increasing concerns about supply shortages and supporting persistently high energy prices.

Silver (XAG/USD) fell more than 8%, dropping to 76 dollars per ounce and extending its decline for the second consecutive session amid rising concerns about accelerating US inflation and potential further monetary tightening. Pressure on the market came from fresh data showing that in April, producer prices as well as import and export prices in the US rose at the fastest pace since 2022, while consumer inflation reached its highest level since 2023. Investors link the increase in price pressure to the prolonged Middle East conflict and ongoing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which support high energy prices.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.99% (weekly result -2.84%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 1.05% (weekly result -1.39%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.62% (weekly result -1.32%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.11% (weekly result -0.68%).
On Monday, Chinese stock indices closed with moderate gains. The market was supported by the technology sector, which offset pressure from weak macroeconomic data. The top performers were companies linked to artificial intelligence and semiconductors. At the same time, China’s economic data increased concerns about slowing domestic activity. Retail sales growth in April slowed sharply to 0.2% year‑over‑year, the weakest result since December 2022. Industrial production also slowed to 4.1%, the lowest level since July 2023, while the unemployment rate improved slightly, falling to 5.2% from March’s 5.4%, the lowest in three months.

Hong Kong’s economy grew by 5.9% year‑over‑year in Q1 2026, confirming preliminary estimates and accelerating from a revised 4% increase in the previous quarter. This was the strongest pace of expansion since Q2 2021. The main drivers were resilient domestic demand, rising consumer spending, and increased investment activity. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP rose 2.9%, the fastest growth in nearly five years. Against this backdrop, authorities maintained their 2026 growth prognosis in the range of 2.5-3.5%.

On Thursday, the US stock market closed higher. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.75%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.77%. The technology index Nasdaq (US100) closed up by 0.88%. The main driver of growth was once again the artificial‑intelligence sector: shares of Cisco Systems jumped 13.4% after raising its revenue and profit outlook, and Nvidia surged 4.4%, extending its monthly gain to 15% after the US allowed shipments of H200 chips to ten Chinese companies.

Additional support for markets came from optimism ahead of the US-China summit in Beijing. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the two sides are discussing accelerated approval of certain Chinese investment deals, as well as a possible reduction of tariffs on several non‑critical goods. Investors expect that negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will help ease global trade tensions and support further growth in the technology sector, despite ongoing pressure from high interest rates and geopolitical risks.

On Thursday, European stock indices posted solid gains for the second consecutive day amid strong corporate earnings and improving sentiment around the US-China summit. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.32%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.93%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.83%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.46%. Technology companies led the gains, as positive signals from talks between US tech‑sector leaders and the Chinese delegation strengthened expectations of further demand growth for artificial‑intelligence infrastructure. Against this backdrop, ASML shares jumped 5.5%, and Infineon rose 3%. Siemens also supported the market, with its shares rising 2.6% after strong financial results and positive forecasts.

On Thursday, WTI oil prices held near 100 dollars per barrel as market participants continued to assess the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and the results of negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. According to reports from Iran, around 30 vessels passed through the strait in recent hours, and Tehran began allowing transit of some Chinese ships, which slightly eased concerns about a full blockade of the key oil‑supply route. Despite signs of limited progress, fundamental risks for the market remain high. The International Energy Agency reported that in the first quarter, oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell by nearly 6 million barrels per day and warned that a severe global supply deficit may persist at least until October, even if the conflict ends next month.

The US natural‑gas prices rose to 2.92 dollars per MMBtu, hitting a seven‑week high as the market continued to react to reduced production and moderate storage‑injection rates. According to the EIA, 85 billion cubic feet of gas were injected into storage during the week ending May 8, matching analyst expectations, below last year’s level of 109 billion cubic feet, and only slightly above the five‑year average. Additional support came from declining production volumes: several producers, including EQT, reduced activity amid persistently low spot prices, resulting in daily output at its lowest level in 15 weeks.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.98%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 1.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.01%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 0.12%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) fell to 0.72 US dollars, retreating from its recent four‑year high and showing a weekly decline of about 0.6% amid broad US dollar strength. The US dollar is supported by persistently high energy prices and ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In Australia, the Reserve Bank (RBA) has already raised rates three times since the beginning of the year in response to inflationary pressure caused by the global energy crisis linked to the Middle East conflict. Markets now estimate the probability of another rate hike by August at around 80%.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to 0.586 US dollars and is heading toward a weekly decline amid weak manufacturing‑sector data. The manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5 in April from 52.8 a month earlier, reaching a seven‑month low. Despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) cautious stance following the economy’s recent exit from recession, markets continue to price in the likelihood of further tightening amid rising inflation risks. The probability of a rate hike at the end of the month is estimated at around 40%, while a July increase is already almost fully priced in.