Gold Declines: Fed Policy and Geopolitics Weigh

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold prices fell below 4,000 USD per troy ounce on Tuesday, reaching their lowest level in nearly eight months. The precious metal remains under pressure amid expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East situation.

Since the start of June, gold has lost more than 12%, with quarterly losses estimated at approximately 15%. Markets continue to price in three Fed rate hikes for the remainder of the year, with the first potentially coming in September.

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming US labour market report, which could shape expectations for the Fed’s next policy steps.

An additional layer of uncertainty comes from US–Iran negotiations, which are set to resume today in Doha. Despite ongoing diplomatic contacts, the prospects for a long-term settlement remain limited, with control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key sticking point.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,017 USD level and has declined to 3,940 USD. A corrective move towards 4,016 USD (a test from below) is expected, followed by a potential decline to 3,885 USD, with scope for a further move to 3,810 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market broke below the 4,017 USD level and moved lower to 3,940 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,016 USD (a test from below) may follow before a further decline to 3,885 USD, with scope for an extension to 3,810 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating continued downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold has fallen below 4,000 USD for the first time in nearly eight months, extending its losses amid expectations of further Fed tightening and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Markets are pricing in three rate hikes for the rest of the year, with the first likely in September, while US–Iran negotiations in Doha offer limited prospects for a breakthrough given deep disagreements over shipping control in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold has now lost more than 12% since the start of June, with quarterly losses approaching 15%. Technical indicators point lower, suggesting further downside towards 3,885 USD and potentially 3,810 USD in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Oil prices have once again risen above 70 dollars per barrel. The Australian dollar has updated a three‑month low

By JustMarkets 

The US stock markets on Monday showed confident growth, breaking a five‑day losing streak and recovering part of their positions after recent volatility. Investors expressed optimism amid signs of de‑escalation in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as a reassessment of the prospects for the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.59%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.18%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 2.25%.

The leaders of growth were companies from the communication and high‑tech sectors, including Tesla, which demonstrated a significant rally, while the materials sector came under pressure despite continued activity in the energy segment. A notable event of the day was the inclusion of Alphabet in the Dow Jones Index, where it replaced telecommunications giant Verizon. Against this backdrop, Alphabet shares showed a noticeable increase.

European indices closed lower on Monday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.21%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.20%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session down by 0.23%. European indices have been showing negative dynamics for the second session in a row due to persistent uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. Despite agreements between the US and Iran on a temporary halt to exchanges of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area, investors remain cautious ahead of new inflation data and the upcoming European Central Bank forum in Sintra, where key speeches by the heads of the Fed and ECB may clarify the future outlook for monetary policy.

Oil prices on Monday corrected upward, rising above 70 dollars per barrel after falling to a four‑month low. Despite attempts to normalize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, tanker traffic volumes remain limited, as recent weekend attacks have significantly undermined market participants’ confidence in the safety of this strategic route. Diplomatic efforts aimed at de‑escalating the conflict remain in focus: the US and Iran agreed to suspend military operations ahead of peace talks in Doha scheduled for Tuesday.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher yesterday by 0.68%.

The Australian dollar updated a three‑month low, falling below 0.687 USD under pressure from the global strengthening of the US dollar. Despite the published RBA minutes, where the regulator confirmed its readiness for further rate hikes due to inflation risks in the Middle East, the market reacted skeptically. Lower energy prices led to a revision of the probability of policy tightening in Australia to 40%, and investors began pricing in a possible rate cut in mid‑2027.

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.79 per dollar, ending a two‑month period of growth. The main pressure on the currency came from the strengthening of the US dollar, supported by expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Fed and demand for a “safe-haven” due to geopolitical tensions. The People’s Bank of China also contributed to this trend by setting daily fixings below market expectations, signaling the authorities’ readiness for gradual yuan depreciation.

China’s economic indicators showed moderate positive dynamics: the manufacturing PMI in June rose to 50.3 (compared to 50.0 in May), and the non‑manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2. Steady demand for high‑tech exports helped the economy adapt to logistical disruptions caused by the Middle Eastern conflict.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,440.43 +86.41 (+1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,182.74 +306.63 (+0.59%)

DAX (DE40) 24,626.89 -44.33 (-0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,484.22 -23.80 (-0.23%)

USD Index 101.12 -0.23 (-0.23%)

News feed for: 2026.06.30

  • Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
  • Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (LOW)
  • Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • China Non NBS Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
  • Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
  • German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR/USD: The Advantage Remains with the Dollar

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD began the week trading around 1.1381. The US dollar has maintained its strong position following the hawkish outcome of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting. The updated projections from FOMC members confirmed the central bank’s willingness to continue tightening monetary policy, prompting markets to reassess the interest rate outlook. The probability of a rate hike in July is currently estimated at around 29%, while the likelihood of tightening in September has risen to approximately 60%.

In recent days, however, expectations have become slightly less aggressive. One reason has been the sharp decline in oil prices, which have returned to pre-conflict levels seen before the escalation in the Middle East. Lower oil prices have helped reduce inflationary concerns. Additionally, markets have largely priced in the Fed’s hawkish stance. Further appreciation of the US dollar is therefore likely to require fresh support from robust macroeconomic data, particularly employment and inflation data.

Until the release of these key reports, the dollar is expected to remain well supported. However, in the absence of new catalysts, a period of consolidation or a moderate correction cannot be ruled out. Market attention in the coming days will focus on labour market and inflation data, which will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

The outlook for the euro remains less favourable. Although the European Central Bank continues to pursue a tightening bias, much of the expected policy adjustment has already been priced into the market. Investors currently anticipate around 28 basis points of additional tightening by the end of the year, with the next ECB rate increase not expected before September.

The latest preliminary PMI data confirmed a further easing of inflationary pressures in the euro area, with price growth slowing to its lowest level since February. While business activity remains subdued, the pace of economic deterioration appears to have stabilised. An additional positive signal came from a recent ECB survey, which showed that consumers expect inflation to decline over the next 12 months and anticipate an improvement in economic conditions. While this supports the euro’s longer-term outlook, the near-term advantage remains firmly with the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1405. The range currently extends between 1.1378 and 1.1414. A breakout to the upside could trigger a corrective move towards 1.1470, followed by a potential decline to 1.1385. Conversely, a downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.1315.

The MACD indicator supports the bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting persistent negative momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1414 and is now consolidating below this level. In the short term, the range may extend between 1.1369 and 1.1317, with further downside potential towards 1.1260.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line is currently near 80 and turning sharply lower towards 20, indicating weakening bullish momentum and increasing downside pressure.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance continues to support the US dollar. While falling oil prices and stabilising eurozone data have eased some concerns, investors remain focused on upcoming US employment and inflation reports. Unless these data disappoint significantly, the dollar is likely to retain its advantage in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Escalation of the US–Iran conflict is once again supporting the rise in oil prices

By JustMarkets 

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.08% (weekly +0.62%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 3.47% (weekly -1.95%). The technology‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.09% (weekly -4.62%). The global economic environment remains heavily influenced by US–Iran negotiations, with the recent increase in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz having pushed commodity prices lower, easing concerns about inflation and further Federal Reserve tightening. However, new reports of US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz radically change market dynamics and threaten the fragile ceasefire, potentially restoring a high geopolitical risk premium across global markets.

This week, investor attention will be focused on US labor‑market data, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment figures, and wage dynamics, as well as manufacturing activity and consumer confidence indicators. These releases will coincide with upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada officials at the ECB Forum.

European indices closed lower on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.29% (weekly -1.46%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.55% (weekly -0.58%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.45% (weekly +0.32%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.21% (weekly +1.39%). The key event for European markets this week will be the release of fresh inflation data for the eurozone and major regional economies, where a slight slowdown in headline inflation is expected due to cheaper energy, while core inflation remains persistently high. Parallel to this, investor attention is focused on the ECB Forum in Sintra, where leaders of major global central banks will discuss monetary policy prospects. Combined with unemployment statistics for the eurozone, Germany, Italy, and Spain, these discussions will help assess the economy’s resilience to current financial conditions.

On Friday, the Swiss franc (CHF) posted a local rebound against the US dollar, recovering after a recent decline driven by lower inflation expectations and weakening dollar momentum. Nevertheless, the currency remains under pressure due to geopolitical factors: potential de‑escalation in the Middle East could weaken the franc’s status as a safe‑haven asset, while the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) current monetary stance – maintaining a zero policy rate despite raising inflation expectations – adds further challenges for the currency.

On Monday, crude oil prices (WTI) showed moderate recovery, rising to around $70 per barrel after a recent drop to four‑month lows triggered by escalating US–Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a series of reciprocal strikes affecting commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, both sides expressed readiness to pause active hostilities ahead of peace talks scheduled for this week in Doha. Although shipping activity temporarily increased amid hopes for compliance with ceasefire terms, many vessels remain blocked in the region, continuing to affect the stability of energy supplies and price dynamics.

Platinum prices (XPT) fell to $1,600 per ounce, approaching yearly lows amid a broad decline in precious metals triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The resurgence of clashes near the Strait of Hormuz erased recent progress in negotiations, causing a sharp spike in oil prices and intensifying inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the persistent strength of the US dollar further limited demand for the metal among holders of other currencies.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 4.15% (weekly -2.40%), China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 3.50% (weekly -4.69%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.76% (weekly -4.79%), while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed slightly higher at 0.18% (weekly -0.43%). Investor focus in the Asia‑Pacific region is directed toward China’s business activity indicators, where both manufacturing and services sectors are hovering near stagnation, as well as Japan’s Tankan survey, reflecting cautious business sentiment in Q2. Japan is expected to show positive dynamics in retail sales and industrial production amid extremely low unemployment, while Australia’s market will concentrate on central bank meeting minutes and updated trade data pointing to a widening surplus. Other regional economies also face a busy agenda: India is preparing to release its budget and industrial production reports, while South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines will publish key statistics on trade, inflation, and GDP.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) began the week with a large liquidity injection, providing 157.5 billion yuan through seven‑day reverse repo operations while keeping the key rate at its historic low of 1.4%, confirming the regulator’s commitment to supporting economic growth through accommodative monetary policy. Additionally, to more flexibly manage short‑term liquidity and stabilize interbank conditions, the PBoC deployed a new tool – an overnight reverse repo – injecting an additional 300 billion yuan into the system.

The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to lose ground, falling below the psychological level of 0.690 USD amid geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which undermines investor appetite for risk assets. Despite the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and renewed negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices remain elevated, intensifying concerns about global inflation.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,354.02 -3.47 (-0.05%)

Dow Jones (US30) 51,876.11 -44.51 (-0.08%)

DAX (DE40) 24,671.22 -323.61 (-1.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,508.02 -21.87 (-0.21%)

USD Index 101.37 -0.07 (-0.06%)

News feed for: 2026.06.29

  • Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 23rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (4,028 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (2,685 contracts), the Mexican Peso (2,436 contracts) and Bitcoin (49 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-34,134 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-13,891 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-9,683 contracts), Australian Dollar (-8,887 contracts), the EuroFX (-4,195 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,036 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-269 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

Highlighting this week’s currencies speculative data is the British Pound Sterling‘s sharp weakness that has pushed the current speculative position to the fourth most bearish level on record. Speculators dropped their British Pound Sterling bets this week by -34,134 contracts, marking the third consecutive week of speculator decreases — and the speculative position has now fallen by over -53,500 contracts in just these past three weeks. This weakness has brought the overall speculator standing to a total of -105,719 standing net contracts. This marks the fourth most bearish level on record and is only less bearish than the levels that were reached for the speculators’ standing in March and April of 2017. The British Pound Sterling speculator bets have now been in bearish territory for 48 consecutive weeks, dating back to July 29th of 2025. In the Forex trading market, the British Pound Sterling dipped for a second consecutive week and is now trading at the bottom of its sideways trading channel near the 1.3200 threshold. The Pound Sterling has been in this sideways trading channel for approximately a year, with the high levels being capped around 1.3800, while the bottom has seen support at 1.3150.

The Canadian Dollar speculator position continues to deteriorate and has now fallen for seven consecutive weeks. This seven-week period has added a total of -132,133 net contracts to the bearish level. This has brought the overall net position to a total of -146,792 contracts in the third consecutive week that has seen the net position with contracts higher than -100,000. The Canadian net speculative position has been in bearish territory for 14 consecutive weeks, following a reprieve from negative bets that spanned from February 3rd to March 17th. That saw positive positions for the Canadian Dollar. This coincided with higher Oil prices, which is a major factor in Canadian exports. Currently, in the Currency markets, the Canadian Dollar has been falling rapidly and has fallen in five out of the previous seven weeks. The Canadian Dollar has broken through its previously ascending triangle pattern that had seen an upward trend line coinciding with the 200-week moving average. This week, the Canadian Dollar fell to its most bearish level since April of 2025 and tested support at 0.7050.

Next up, a currency on the rise has been the US Dollar Index (DX). The Dollar Index saw a dip this week but has risen to multi-month highs in its weekly net speculator standing over the past few weeks. This week, the US Dollar Index saw a dip by a small -269 net contract bets following last week’s strong jump by +11,813 contracts. The standing US Dollar Index net position has now been over +12,000 contracts for a second consecutive week and is at the highest levels since March of 2025. Overall, the US Dollar Index net position standing has now been in bullish or positive territory for 14 out of the past 15 weeks, including the past five weeks in a row. The Dollar Index in the currency trading markets has just recently broken out of its sideways trading band that had sustained for approximately a year. The 100.00 level had provided strong resistance to the currency, but in the last two weeks, the Dollar Index has broken out above and closed this week at 101.12. This marks the highest close since April of 2025. The next level of resistance above for further bullish action is around the 102.50 level, while we could see support for the Dollar Index at the 100.00–100.50 area.

US Dollar Index leads Currency price performances

The Currencies’ price performance this week was led by the US Dollar Index, which rose by 0.43% over the past five days. The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged on the week, followed by the Japanese Yen, which edged down slightly by -0.11%.

Next up, the Swiss Franc also slid by a minuscule amount with a -0.13% decline, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which dipped by -0.16%, and the Brazilian Real, which also was lower by -0.16%. The Euro declined by -0.60% on the week, while the Mexican Peso was down by -0.94%.

The Currencies that fell by over 1% this week were the Australian Dollar, with a dip of -1.51%, followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by -1.55% over the past five days.

The biggest decliner on the week was Bitcoin, which dropped by -5.71%.


Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that  Bitcoin (100 percent) and the US Dollar Index (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent) and the Mexican Peso (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (2 percent), the Japanese Yen (10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.8 percent)
EuroFX (41.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (43.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (21.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (27.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (13.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (53.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (51.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.8 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (99.2 percent)


Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (7 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-56 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-51 percent), British Pound (-25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (26.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.8 percent)
EuroFX (-3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-25.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-19.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-11.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-56.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-50.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-42.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-17.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-18.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (37.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.8 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,197 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.425.69.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.955.23.1
– Net Position:12,928-16,2463,318
– Gross Longs:34,27814,0695,010
– Gross Shorts:21,35030,3151,692
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.012.3100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.3-31.633.3

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,353 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.555.010.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.662.36.9
– Net Position:30,158-57,18327,025
– Gross Longs:247,332431,83781,337
– Gross Shorts:217,174489,02054,312
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.361.431.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.97.5-25.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -105,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,585 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.778.26.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.336.712.4
– Net Position:-105,719123,431-17,712
– Gross Longs:40,772232,43019,092
– Gross Shorts:146,491108,99936,804
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.07.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.328.4-41.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,132 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.458.511.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.325.510.1
– Net Position:-146,104142,3813,723
– Gross Longs:113,698252,27847,306
– Gross Shorts:259,802109,89743,583
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.586.843.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.517.27.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -1,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,058 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.383.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.231.623.2
– Net Position:-41,09456,495-15,401
– Gross Longs:7,97590,8289,792
– Gross Shorts:49,06934,33325,193
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.6 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.891.613.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.619.9-31.0

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -13,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,901 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.578.08.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.332.611.5
– Net Position:-146,792155,789-8,997
– Gross Longs:39,429267,56630,351
– Gross Shorts:186,221111,77739,348
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.380.721.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-56.257.3-34.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -8,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,125 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.345.316.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.445.79.6
– Net Position:-13,012-86313,875
– Gross Longs:82,20097,08634,390
– Gross Shorts:95,21297,94920,515
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.948.469.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-50.748.4-27.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -9,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,161 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.784.03.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.828.46.0
– Net Position:-54,84457,522-2,678
– Gross Longs:12,11486,8133,469
– Gross Shorts:66,95829,2916,147
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.298.815.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.918.0-4.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,789 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.639.73.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.278.81.7
– Net Position:74,225-77,6673,442
– Gross Longs:112,38978,7756,786
– Gross Shorts:38,164156,4423,344
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.645.552.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-6.1-8.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,994 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:71.822.24.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.967.21.3
– Net Position:43,679-47,0253,346
– Gross Longs:74,88823,1054,718
– Gross Shorts:31,20970,1301,372
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.3 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.727.739.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.118.7-7.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 49 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,475 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.50.34.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.416.25.9
– Net Position:3,524-3,253-271
– Gross Longs:16,34870935
– Gross Shorts:12,8243,3231,206
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.05.323.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.7-19.9-60.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Copper, GBP & Lean Hogs lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday June 23rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.


Extreme Bullish Speculator Table


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the speculators tend to use the futures as a hedging instrument for Bitcoin. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise higher by 38 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 3,524 net contracts this week with an increase of 49 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 


Copper

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Copper speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week with the Copper speculator level now at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a decline of -4 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 71,620 net contracts this week with a decrease of -3,730 contracts in speculator bets.


Cotton

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Cotton speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Cotton speculator level resides at a 89 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a decline of -11 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 83,558 net contracts this week with an increase of 4,881 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Steel

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the Steel speculator level is currently at an 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a boost of 2 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 11,781 net contracts this week with a decline of -216 contracts in the speculator bets.


5-Year Bond

Extreme Bullish Leader
The 5-Year Bond speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the 5-Year speculator level sitting at a 82 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an advance by 4 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -1,301,269 net contracts this week with a rise of 48,908 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table


British Pound

Extreme Bearish Leader
The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the GBP speculator level is at a 0 percent minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -25 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -105,719 net contracts this week with a retreat of -34,134 contracts in the speculator bets.


Lean Hogs

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in second for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Lean Hogs speculator level at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a retreat of -34 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -57,209 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,133 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


New Zealand Dollar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -18 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -54,844 net contracts this week with a decline of -9,683 contracts in the speculator bets.


Cocoa Futures

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the Cocoa speculator level is at just a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a retreat of -6 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -19,789 net contracts this week with an advance of 1,091 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Extreme Bearish Leader
Lastly, the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the SOFR 3-Months speculator level at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -45 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -2,808,392 net contracts this week with an addition of 100,586 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

GBP/USD Ends the Month with Its Worst Performance in a Year

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair continued to decline against the US dollar on Friday and is set to close June with its worst monthly performance since July last year, trading near 1.3182. Since the start of the month, sterling has lost around 2.2%. Current levels are the lowest since November last year.

Several factors are weighing on the British currency. First, lower oil prices following the easing of tensions between the US and Iran have reduced inflation risks and lowered the likelihood of more aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England. The market now expects only one rate increase before the end of the year, compared with two that were priced in just a few weeks ago.

Domestic UK politics has become an additional source of uncertainty. Following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, investors are awaiting the appointment of a new head of government and, most importantly, a new finance minister. Andy Burnham is seen as the most likely successor, although the composition of the future government’s economic team remains unclear.

The market is closely watching the new cabinet’s staffing decisions. These appointments will shape the country’s future fiscal policy and influence investor sentiment towards British assets.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the market completed a downward wave to 1.3140 and a growth wave towards 1.3217. In practice, a wide consolidation range is forming around 1.3200.

If the pair breaks out of this range to the upside, the potential will open for the wave to continue towards 1.3240. If the pair breaks out to the downside, the potential will open for a continuation of the decline towards 1.3033.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero mark and is pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3180. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.3140. Further growth towards 1.3220 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3060.

The Stochastic oscillator also supports this scenario. Its signal line is below 50 and is pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Oil prices fall back to pre‑war levels. Silver drops to a 7‑month low

By JustMarkets 

On Wednesday, the US stock indices closed mixed as caution persisted in the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.35%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.10%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.43%. Investors attempted to assess whether real demand for AI infrastructure can justify the enormous capital expenditures of major IT giants. Traditional sectors of the economy, by contrast, received notable support. Easing inflation concerns due to the prospect of a rapid resumption of energy exports from the Middle East pushed US Treasury yields lower. As a result, the Dow Jones outperformed. The Index was also supported by expectations of a major reshuffling: on Monday, June 29, Alphabet (Google’s parent company) will officially replace Verizon in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, significantly increasing the weight of the technology and AI sectors in this historic benchmark.

The Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) posted a sharp decline, falling to a yearly low of 1.42 per US dollar. The main driver of the “loonie’s” weakness was the powerful global rally of the US dollar. Traders are aggressively pricing in a hawkish scenario in the United States after several FOMC members under Kevin Warsh signaled the need for more than one rate hike before the end of 2026. Unlike the Fed’s firm stance, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is taking a far more cautious and patient approach, depriving the national currency of monetary support.

At the end of June, the Mexican peso fell to 17.6 per US dollar, hitting its lowest level since early April. The main driver of the peso’s weakness was the sharp global strengthening of the US dollar against both developed and emerging‑market currencies. Meanwhile, domestic Mexican factors removed fundamental support for the peso. Fresh economic data showed that headline inflation in Mexico unexpectedly slowed to a ten‑month low of 3.55% in the first half of June, while core inflation also fell more than expected. This cooling of price growth, combined with a weakening national economy (GDP contracted by 0.6% in Q1), strengthened the case for further monetary easing by the Bank of Mexico, which has already cut its policy rate to 6.50%.

European indices traded without a unified direction yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.62%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.54%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.45%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 0.31%.

On Wednesday, silver prices (XAG/USD) plunged by roughly 5%, falling to $59 per ounce and hitting their lowest level since December of last year amid a broad strengthening of the US dollar. With inflation concerns easing and oil prices falling below $70, silver lost its key growth drivers. However, strong industrial demand from green energy and AI‑related infrastructure may prevent the metal from falling below the critical support zone of $55-56.

The US crude oil (WTI) prices fell below the psychological $70 per barrel mark during trading (with lows at $69.63), hitting their lowest levels since late February – the beginning of the conflict’s hot phase. The sharp decline (40% from wartime peaks) is driven by the rapid disappearance of the geopolitical risk premium. After the interim agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners began confidently restoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with transponders on, having received official safety guarantees from the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO). According to the IEA, exports from the UAE have already recovered to 85% of pre‑crisis levels, while total oil shipments from the Persian Gulf recently reached around 60 million barrels.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.88%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.39%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.33%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher by 0.24%. The Hang Seng Index fell to 23,106, retracing the previous session’s gains and hitting its lowest level since June 2025. Investors chose to lock in profits and act cautiously ahead of Hong Kong’s fresh trade balance data, pushing the benchmark to two‑year lows. However, the decline was partially offset by a strong rally in the Asian tech sector.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) broke key support and fell below 0.690 USD, settling near a three‑month low amid a powerful global rally of the US dollar. This aggressive decline in the “aussie” occurred despite strong domestic labor‑market data: in May, Australia created 40,300 new jobs after April’s drop of 40,600, while the unemployment rate predictably fell to 4.4%. Nevertheless, the positive employment report only intensified investor concerns about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next steps, as a strong labor market combined with high core inflation gives the regulator room to continue its tightening cycle.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,358.22 -7.24 (-0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 51,666.84 +182.06 (+0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 24,740.36 -153.22 (-0.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,461.63 +32.78 (+0.31%)

USD Index 101.61 +0.20 (+0.20%)

News feed for: 2026.06.25

  • Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
  • German GfK Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • US Final GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)
  • Mexico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Gold Falls to an Eight-Month Low: This May Not Be the Bottom

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold stabilised near 4,000 USD per troy ounce on Thursday but remained close to its lowest levels in almost eight months. The market continues to face pressure from a stronger US dollar and growing expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The US Dollar Index refreshed its highest level in more than a year, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. This traditionally reduces demand for the precious metal.

Last week, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signalled that it remained ready to tighten policy further. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh once again reaffirmed the regulator’s commitment to fighting inflation. The market is now pricing in a high probability of a rate hike as early as September, with the possibility of further moves before the end of the year.

Expectations of higher interest rates are currently outweighing the support that gold could have received from lower geopolitical tensions.

Progress in negotiations between the US and Iran helped oil prices return to the levels seen before the conflict and significantly reduced inflation risks. As a result, demand for safe-haven assets was left without strong support.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, the market formed a consolidation range around 4,099 and completed a downward wave to 3,960. We expect a corrective move towards 4,099, testing this level from below. After that, the probability of a new decline towards 3,869 may be considered, with the potential for the wave to extend to 3,828.

The MACD indicator confirms the current downward impulse. The signal line is below the central line and is pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market broke below 4,099 and completed a downward wave towards 3,960. Going forward, the possibility of a correction towards 4,099 may be considered, with this level tested from below.

In practice, a trend-continuation pattern is forming to the downside. After that, a decline towards 3,860 is expected, with the potential for the trend to continue towards 3,828.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario: the signal line remains below 50 and is under pressure to decline towards 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

How local communities are challenging Big Tech data centers’ noise, pollution and rising electricity bills

By Rachel Mural, Harvard Kennedy School 

As the race to build data centers across the United States accelerates, local governments worry that the tech industry mantra of “move fast and break things” means their communities are at risk of being broken.

I’m a Harvard researcher studying the relationship between data centers and energy. I’ve closely monitored how local governments respond to proposals or even just concerns about the potential for data centers in their communities. What I’ve found is a complex story of community needs, political tensions and corporate power – all interacting with local, state and national democratic processes.

Promises and potential

Technology companies stay competitive by being ready to provide data and communications services even before customer demand rises. Data centers already power online communications, shopping and banking systems. Now, expanding demand for artificial intelligence has led to over 1,000 pending data center proposals across the country.

Federal actions also drive development. The Trump administration has identified data center build-out as a strategic priority. The administration has promoted data center capacity as a measure of American strength and signaled that federal regulations on data centers may be eased.

At the community level, technology companies claim that data centers bring jobs, economic revitalization, digital connectivity and economic growth to local communities.

Not great neighbors

So far, however, data centers’ benefits are overshadowed by more visible harms.

Nearby residents experience higher air pollution and excess noise. Data processing also uses a lot of water to cool the buildings and their equipment.

Simultaneously, electricity prices continue to outpace inflation, burdening families across the country. These trends reflect, in part, the costly infrastructure investments needed to power data centers.

The local movement

My research has found that local governments across the U.S. are trying to avoid or reduce these harms.

Some counties and cities that don’t have specific zoning rules and regulations for data center development are using short-term moratoriums. These pauses in data center permitting and construction give communities time to consider how to define new laws and regulations about the facilities’ location, electricity use, water conservation and noise buffering.

Speaking about his town’s decision to impose a one-year data center moratorium, Rick Bella, the town council president in Merrillville, Indiana, about 40 miles southeast of Chicago, stressed a desire to “evaluate real-world impacts and learn from a project developing right next door before determining what may or may not be appropriate for Merrillville.”

Other places want to block data centers altogether. In April 2026, for example, the Ypsilanti Community Utilities Authority near Detroit, Michigan, passed a yearlong halt to the “delivery, commitment, reservation, extension, or approval of water and sewer services” for data centers. The move blocks data centers, including one under development by the University of Michigan and Los Alamos National Laboratory, from getting the water they need to operate.

Separately, towns across Ohio, Wisconsin, Maryland, Nevada and California have put questions related to data centers on their local ballots. Through these referendums, voters can weigh in on construction bans, tax incentives and zoning ordinances.

Power struggles

While public attitudes around data centers have remained largely nonpartisan, local and state officials don’t always see eye to eye.

Officials in Hood County, Texas, for example, rejected a proposal for a six-month moratorium after a state senator urged the Texas attorney general to intervene and prevent the measure.

In 2025, West Virginia passed a bill that reduces local governments’ zoning and regulatory powers in relation to data centers and microgrids. A similar bill in New Hampshire’s legislature was defeated in May 2026.

Tech companies are also flexing their legal and financial muscles. For example, data center developers sued Saline Township, Michigan, and Chatham County, North Carolina, seeking to overturn their local zoning decisions, to be able to proceed with data center construction.

Changing tides

Local pushback comes at a pivotal moment for artificial intelligence technology itself.

As seen in objections to the internet’s expanding AI “slop,” backlash over AI-generated Super Bowl ads, worries about an AI-related financial bubble and complaints about Google’s pivot to AI-directed search, Americans are reckoning with AI’s role in society.

Further, many people are questioning the role of technology broadly. Increasing numbers of teens and adults are addicted to their smartphones, emotionally and psychologically dependent on their availability. Parents and teachers are questioning the usefulness of various types of digital technologies in classrooms. Even the pope has warned that technology must serve humanity – and not the other way around.

Americans are responding to this moment through the power of their voices and votes.

Technology companies may view moratoriums and new regulations as delays in project development. But the town hall discussions, community coalitions, public petitions and even farmers’ unions reflect American democracy at work.

In Sunbury, Ohio, local officials considered a moratorium only after witnessing the scope of public protest over a proposed data center.

In April 2026, voters in Festus, Missouri, removed several City Council members after they supported a new data center despite resident pushback.

The question of whether a community wants or should have a data center does not have a universal answer. I believe it’s a question that deserves deliberate processes, transparency and consideration.

To me, these local-level actions reflect a desire to slow down. There is little question that data centers and AI will be part of our collective future. Today, communities are asking for a fair say in what their futures will be.The Conversation

About the Author:

Rachel Mural, Senior Research Associate in Environment and Natural Resources and Science, Technology, and Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.