Australia’s economy is slowing down. The BoC meeting is in the spotlight today

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.36%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.15%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.17% yesterday. The April JOLTS job openings number fell more than expected to a 3-year low, pushing 10-year T-note yields to a 2-week low and reinforcing expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The April JOLTS US Job Openings Index fell by 296,000 to a 3-year low of 8.059 million, indicating a weak labor market compared to expectations of 8.350 million.

Weakness in energy stocks weighed on the overall market on Tuesday after WTI crude fell more than 1% to a 3-month low on concerns that OPEC+’s plan to bring oil production back to the market sooner than expected will lead to a glut in global oil supplies.

Friday will see the release of the monthly US payrolls report for May, looking for signs of labor market strength that could decide when the Fed can start cutting interest rates. The consensus is that non-farm payrolls for May will increase by 190,000, and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.9%.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. In April, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate at 5% as expected and refrained from hinting at the start of rate cuts due to rising inflation risks. However, the latest GDP report showed that the Canadian economy has not recovered as much from the soft period last year as previously thought and may convince the central bank to start lowering borrowing costs. Thus, the Bank of Canada could deliver a surprise 0.25% rate cut.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.09%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.75%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.97%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.37% on Tuesday. European equity markets opened higher on Wednesday as investors await the European Central Bank’s decision this week. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday for the first time since 2019, but markets will be watching to see if last week’s Eurozone inflation data will influence the ECB’s decision.

Germany’s unemployment rate change for May rose by 25,000, the largest increase in 7 months, and showed a weaker labor market than expected at 7,000. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at Thursday’s ECB meeting to 99%. If the ECB cuts rates by 25 bps on Thursday, markets expect a 0% chance of another rate cut at the next meeting on July 18 and a 62% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the September 12 meeting.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.22%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.22% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.31%. Hong Kong (HK50) stocks were up 0.4% in early trading on Wednesday, rising for a third session amid growing hopes of fresh supportive measures from China as the country’s regulator unveils capital market policy measures at a high-level forum in Shanghai on Saturday. Investors also welcomed private survey data that showed activity in the mainland’s service sector rose by the most in 10 months in May, rising for the 17th month and matching official data.

In Japan, real wages fell for the 25th consecutive month in April, with domestic inflation continuing to outpace wage growth. It also became known that the Bank of Japan is likely to discuss reducing bond purchases at its meeting next week. These are positive factors for the Japanese yen.

In the first quarter, the Australian economy grew by 0.1%, slowing down from the growth of 0.3% in the previous quarter and failing to meet market forecasts of 0.2%. Investors breathed a sigh of relief as the economy avoided an outright recession. Nevertheless, markets see little chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) easing policy this year, with the probability of that happening in December at 44%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,291.34 +7.94 (+0.15%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,711.29 +140.26 (+0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 18,405.64 −202.52 (−1.09%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,232.04 −30.71 (−0.37%)

USD Index 104.16 +0.02 (+0.02%)

Important events today:
  • – New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Caixin China Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

New Zealand Dollar shows stability amid US economic concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The NZD/USD pair is stable, consolidating around 0.6189 on Wednesday. The New Zealand dollar maintains a sideways trend and appears relatively robust in the current market environment.

Recent pressure on the US dollar, triggered by disappointing employment statistics, has led to speculation that the US Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates after the September meeting. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a decline in job openings to 8.059 million in April, the lowest since February 2021, indicating a cooling employment market. These developments are of significant concern for the Fed, suggesting a need to adjust monetary policy to support employment.

Market attention is now turning to the upcoming May private sector jobs data from ADP, which is expected to provide further insights into labour market conditions. The week will culminate with a comprehensive set of employment market statistics on Friday.

Regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), there are no expectations of an interest rate cut until at least mid-2025. The RBNZ is expected to maintain a stable policy to allow for a thorough data assessment.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart, the NZD/USD pair is evolving within a broad consolidation range around the 0.6136 level. A recent growth impulse has reached 0.6197. Today, a potential decline to 0.6137 is expected, which could test from below. Following this correction, a new wave of decline may initiate, targeting the 0.6136 level, potentially extending to 0.6070 if this level is breached. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointed downwards. The notable divergence between the chart peaks and the indicator further reinforces this analysis.

On the H1 chart, the pair showed a downward impulse to 0.6155, followed by a correction to 0.6191. Today, the market may execute an impulse to 0.6160, with the potential for a further decline to 0.6140 and an extension towards 0.6080, the first target of the downward wave. This scenario is technically validated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80 but trending sharply downward.

Market outlook

As the NZD/USD pair continues to show resilience amidst fluctuating US economic indicators, it is crucial for investors to closely monitor incoming data, particularly from the US employment market, which could significantly influence the Fed’s next steps. The stability of the New Zealand dollar, supported by the RBNZ’s steady policy stance, contrasts the potential volatility in the US dollar as fiscal and monetary policy expectations evolve.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Bitcoin: Breaks $71k ahead of US NFP

By ForexTime 

  • Bitcoin ↑ 5% this week
  • Roughly 4% away from all-time high
  • Over past year NFP triggered moves of ↑ 2.5% & ↓ 1%
  • Key level of interest – $72,000

Are Bitcoin bulls gearing up for another charge higher?

Well, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has jumped almost 5% this week, trading around $71,000 as of writing.

Bitcoin along with other cryptocurrencies seem to be supported by the prospect of lower US interest rates in 2024. But another major factor is the monster inflows into exchange-traded funds holding the tokens.

According to data from Coinglass among other sources, Bitcoin ETFs saw a whopping $886.6 million inflows on Tuesday!

Source: Coinglass 

This was the best day of inflows since mid-March and the second-largest amount since spot ETFs launched this year. These bullish forces may keep the “OG” crypto buoyed ahead of Friday’s US jobs data.

As covered in our trade of the week, the incoming NFP report is likely to influence bets around when the Fed cuts rates in 2024.

Traders are currently pricing in a 75% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut in November with a move fully priced in by December.

Any changes to these expectations may influence cryptocurrencies which have shown sensitivity to interest rates.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 2.5% or declines of 1% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

What does this mean?

Bitcoin is trading roughly 4% away from its all-time high at $73850.

So essentially, a disappointing jobs report that fuels rate cut bets could push prices closer to all-time highs.

Just to be clear, past price movements do not guarantee future results but can be used to highlight how Bitcoin has reacted to the US jobs report.

It’s not only Bitcoin that may experience big moves on Friday…

  • AVALANCH: ↑ 4.0 % or ↓ 2.0%
  • CARDANO: ↑ 3.4% or ↓ 1.6%
  • SOLANA: ↑ 3.2 % or ↓ 2.7%
  • CHAINLINK: ↑ 3.0 % or ↓ 1.2%
  • DOGECOIN: ↑ 2.8 % or ↓ 1.1%
  • LITECOIN: ↑ 2.2 % or ↓ 1.0%
  • BITCOINC: ↑ 2.0 % or ↓ 1.7%
  • ETHEREUM: ↑ 2.0% or ↓ 1.3%
  • POLYGON: ↑ 1.7% or ↓ 1.5%
  • RIPPLE: ↑ 1.7% or ↓ 1.1%

All 10 cryptos listed above are offered by FXTM as Crypto CFD’s.

Technical outlook…

Bitcoin remains trapped within a range on the weekly charts with bulls approaching the $72,000 resistance.

Prices have turned bullish on the daily charts after the breakout above $70,000. The upside momentum may take the crypto towards the $72,000 resistance level in the short term.

  • A solid breakout above $72,000 could open a path toward the all-time high at $73850.
  • Should prices fall back below $70,000, bears may target $67,000.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

FXTM’s Sugar: Hits 3-week high

By ForexTime

  • Sugar ↑ almost 3% month-to-date
  • Roughly 25% away from 2024 high
  • H1 prices bullish but RSI overbought
  • Technical levels – 19.08, 18.90 and 18.50

Check this out, FXTM’s new Sugar commodity has just touched a fresh three-week high!

After wobbling near multi-week lows, prices clipped above 18.90 cents per pound on Tuesday.

Note: Sugar is priced per pound.

Before we break down the fundamentals, here are some fun facts about sugar:

  • Been around for over 10,000 years
  • Introduced in the West as a “spice”
  • Brazil is the biggest producer 
  • We are all wired to crave sugar!
  • Gained almost 3% month-to-date

 

What is Sugar?

It is a sweet substance obtained from plants such as sugarcane or sugar beets.

Sugar is a very versatile ingredient, used for drinks, cereals, sweets, cakes, jams, and so on.

What does FXTM’s Sugar track?

FXTM’s Sugar tracks the Sugar No. 11 futures, the world benchmark for raw sugar trading.

The lowdown?

Sugar prices are down almost 10% year-to-date.

The soft commodity initially gained 17% in January amid concerns that El Nino weather patterns could disrupt global sugar production.  Fears over severe weather conditions in the world’s two largest producers (Brazil & India) sent prices above 24.00 cents per pound.

Since then, sugar has been under pressure – posting four consecutive months of losses thanks to improving supply prospects.

The bigger picture…

An improving supply outlook from Brazil and a potentially longer monsoon season in India could boost global sugar production.

This may lead to lower sugar prices, especially when factoring in how these two countries account for over 40% of world production.

Conversely, India has extended its sugar export restrictions beyond October 2024. But this could change if the current elections result in a change of leadership and trade policies.

What does this mean?

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global consumption of sugar is forecast to rise to a new record high of 179.0 million tons in 2024.

However, global production is also forecast to hit 186.0 million tons this year. This potential surplus of 7.0 million tons could limit upside gains for sugar.

Technical Outlook

Sugar is trending higher on the H1 timeframe with prices above the 50, 100, and 200 SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed above 70 – indicating that prices are overbought.

  • Sustained weakness below 18.90 could open a path towards 18.50 and 18.10.
  • A strong break above 18.90 may see bulls challenge 19.08 and 19.30.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Japanese yen strengthens unexpectedly against US dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair unexpectedly declined last night due to a weakening US dollar. Currently, it is hovering around 156.33.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki highlighted the government’s recent interventions to support the yen, significantly impacting the market. Official data reveals that throughout April, Japan spent approximately 9.79 trillion yen (62.2 billion USD) on efforts to stabilise the national currency.

Suzuki pointed out that the interventions aimed to mitigate excessive fluctuations in the currency market. He affirmed that Japan would continue to monitor the forex market and act against disorderly movements vigilantly, expressing satisfaction with the effects of these measures. This marks the first time the Japanese authorities have acknowledged their market interventions conducted in late April and early May.

The yen’s strengthening is also bolstered by the recent depreciation of the US dollar, driven by market anticipations of a potential earlier rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As expectations grow for softened US monetary policy, the dollar has declined, boosting other currencies, including the yen.

USD/JPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a correction wave, reaching 157.70. A new wave of decline aiming for 153.77 is forming. Once this target is reached, a potential correction to 155.44 (testing from below) may follow, preceding a further decline towards 149.70. The bearish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, the correction phase to 157.47 has concluded, and a downward impulse towards 155.44 is underway. Following this, a correction to 156.45 (testing from below) could occur, potentially leading to a further drop to 155.22, the primary target. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is positioned above 80 and is anticipated to drop to 20.

Summary

The yen’s unexpected strengthening reflects a complex interplay of domestic interventions and broader market reactions to shifts in US monetary policy. Given the ongoing adjustments in global economic expectations and central bank policies, investors and traders should closely monitor these developments, as further fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair are likely.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Oil prices decreased for the 5th consecutive session. AI companies support the NASDAQ index

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.30%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.11%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.56% yesterday. The general market’s gains were limited as economic concerns pressured stocks after activity in the US manufacturing sector unexpectedly declined last month. In addition, energy stocks came under pressure after WTI crude oil prices fell more than 3% to a 3-month low. However, the strengthening of technology stocks helped the sector’s growth. Nvidia (NVDA), for example, closed up more than 4% and led chip stocks higher after the company announced at the Computex conference in Taiwan a new generation of artificial intelligence chips by 2025 and a next-generation platform under development called Rubin by 2026.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s comments were hawkish. They supported the dollar when he said the Fed will likely hold interest rates for an “extended period” until new economic data convinces policymakers that inflation is declining. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 1% at the June 11-12 FOMC meeting, 15% at the next meeting on July 30-31, and 51% at the next September 17-18 meeting.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.66%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.15% on Monday.

European equity markets opened lower on Tuesday, following a global decline among global peers as disappointing US industrial production data weighed on market sentiment. Investors are also cautiously awaiting the European Central Bank’s decision this week, which is expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2019. Meanwhile, markets will see if last week’s Eurozone inflation data will influence the ECB’s decision.

On Monday, silver (XAGUSD) gained support on strengthening manufacturing activity in China after the May Caixin PMI rose by 0.3 to 51.7, the highest reading in 23 months and a positive for industrial metals demand.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $74 a barrel on Tuesday, dropping for the fifth consecutive session to the lowest level in four months amid concerns that global supply could increase later this year. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most supply cuts through 2025 but opened the door for voluntary cuts by eight member countries to be phased out starting in October. More than 500,000 barrels a day are expected to return to the market by December, and 1.8 million barrels a day by June 2025.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.13% over yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.55%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.79%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.77%.

On Tuesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (AU200) fell 0.05% to below 7,760, interrupting two days of gains. This was helped by losses in mining and energy stocks amid lower commodity prices. Investors are also awaiting Australian GDP data this week to gauge the current state of the economy and potential implications for domestic monetary policy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,283.40 +5.89 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,571.03 −115.29 (−0.30%)

DAX (DE40) 18,608.16 +110.22 (+0.60%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,262.75 −12.63 (−0.15%)

USD Index 104.11 −0.56 (−0.54%)

Important events today:
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Alibaba’s (BABA) Secret Weapon for Future Growth

By The Ino.com Team

Amid challenging regulatory pressures, economic headwinds, and fierce market competition, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has showcased a resilient performance, as evidenced by its latest quarterly results. Shares of the Chinese e-commerce giant have gained more than 7% over the past three months. Moreover, the stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $76.20 and $78.79, respectively, reflecting a solid momentum.

Alibaba’s diverse business portfolio continues to be a driving force behind its steady financial performance. For the fourth quarter that ended March 31, 2024, BABA’s revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $30.73 billion, beating the analysts’ estimate of $30.42 billion. The growth was driven by robust performances across its core e-commerce and cloud computing segments.

BABA’s strategic investments in Alibaba Cloud infrastructure and its domestic and international e-commerce platforms have spurred double-digit growth in key metrics such as gross merchandise value (GMV). Yet, the company’s income from operations dipped 3% from the prior-year quarter to $2.05 billion.

Navigating through cautious consumer spending in China, Alibaba has observed early signs of recovery in its primary e-commerce operations. Revenue from the Taobao and Tmall Group increased 4% year-over-year to $12.91 billion, while customer management revenue grew 5%, rebounding from a previously flat quarter. Also, revenue from the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) surged 45% year-over-year to $3.80 billion.

BABA’s CEO Eddie Wu’s commitment to ‘reignite’ growth through further investments is beginning to yield results, as he noted the strategies were “working and we are returning to growth.”

But What’s Behind This Robust Growth?

Alibaba’s secret weapon lies in its digital technology and intelligence arm, Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligence Group, which stood as the company’s second-largest revenue generator last year. Revenue from this segment rose 3% year-over-year to $3.54 billion, driven by the double-digit growth of its public cloud business. Core offerings like elastic computing, databases, and AI products led to a notable triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue in the fourth quarter alone. This surge in demand for advanced AI solutions positions the company to capitalize on the burgeoning AI market.

To foster long-term growth and attract startups and small businesses, Alibaba aggressively slashed prices on over 100 core public cloud products (including Elastic Compute Service (ECS), Object Storage Service, and database product categories) in China. This initiative was later extended globally in April with a 23% average price reduction. Customers ordering through Alibaba’s official website can now enjoy discounts of up to 59% on computing, storage, network, database, and big data products.

“Cloud infrastructure is poised to be the key cornerstone for the future of AI, and our commitment lies in making sure that the foundation for AI development remains affordable,” said Selina Yuan, President of the International Business of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence.

Moreover, Alibaba Cloud’s AI capabilities have rapidly gained traction, with over 90,000 enterprises adopting the Qwen large language model (LLM) within a year of its debut and more than 7 million downloads on open-source platforms like Github. Alibaba Cloud introduced Qwen2.5, the latest addition to its Qwen model family, to meet the growing demand for AI solutions.

Furthermore, Alibaba Cloud recently launched a service to help companies customize and scale generative AI models, from consolidating multiple models to optimizing underlying infrastructure resources. The PAI-Lingjun Intelligent Computing Service, an AI computing platform tailored for high-performance computing tasks, also expanded its reach to Singapore for the first time this year.

Also, the group’s strategic focus on public cloud and operational efficiency resulted in an impressive 49% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $848 million in fiscal year 2024. Such growth figures solidify Alibaba Cloud’s role as a crucial driver of the company’s future growth.

Is Price Cuts a Strategic Initiative or a Race to the Bottom?

Alibaba’s recent move to reduce prices across its cloud services has stirred the market. Some say it’s a smart move to attract more customers (especially with the growing demand for AI services), while others fear it could hurt profits in the long run.

With enterprises’ expenditure on generative AI services expected to reach $143 billion in 2027 globally, the timing of BABA’s price adjustments appears strategic, positioning the company to tap into this growing market.

Meanwhile, BABA’s price cuts have sparked a price war among Chinese tech giants, with Baidu Cloud and ByteDance quickly following suit with their competitive offerings. While these cuts benefit consumers, Alibaba’s footing in the global marketplace is tenuous. Despite holding over 30% of China’s Infrastructure as a Service market, Alibaba still trails behind AWS in the broader Asia Pacific region. Alibaba Cloud commands only a small fraction of the global cloud computing market, where AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud dominate the landscape.

Making headway against these industry giants is not easy, especially considering their strong foothold in Western markets. While the price cuts may attract budget-conscious customers and bolster Alibaba’s presence in emerging markets, success hinges on maintaining high-quality service and innovation in the long run. Only time will tell if Alibaba’s gamble pays off.

Bottom Line

BABA reported a beat in revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024; however, the e-commerce giant’s earnings plunged. Despite a weak bottom line, CFO Toby Xu expressed confidence in the company’s business outlook, citing early positive results from strategic investments and partnerships. Alibaba sees AI as a significant driver of innovation and value creation within its ecosystem.

During the March quarter, AI-related revenue delivered “triple-digit growth year-over-year.” The revenue was generated from foundational model companies and internet companies, as well as customers from the financial services and automotive industries.

Analysts expect BABA’s revenue for the first quarter (ending June 2024) to increase 5.1% year-over-year to $34.10 billion. However, its EPS for the ongoing quarter is expected to decline by 15.6% year-over-year to $2.03. Further, for the fiscal year 2025, Alibaba’s revenue is forecasted to reach $140.92 billion (up 8.3% year-over-year), while the consensus EPS estimate of $8.23 indicates a 4.4% decline from the prior year.

In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, BABA is trading at 9.61x, 39.5% lower than the industry average of 15.88x. Similarly, the stock’s forward EV/EBITDA and Price/Book multiples of 5.94 and 1.31 are 39% and 45.3% lower than the industry averages of 9.73 and 2.40, respectively.

In response to its low valuation, Alibaba’s management repurchased $4.8 billion worth of shares during the fourth quarter. Moreover, earlier this year, the company bolstered its share buyback program by an additional $25 billion, extending it through the end of March 2027.

In further demonstrating its commitment to returning value to shareholders, BABA approved a two-part dividend plan totaling $4 billion. This plan includes a regular cash dividend of $0.125 per ordinary share or $1 per ADS in FY24 and a one-time extraordinary cash dividend of $0.0825 per ordinary share or $0.66 per ADS. Both dividends will be paid out in U.S. dollars to holders of ordinary shares and ADS holders as of the close of business on June 13, 2024.

While the impact of price reductions on Alibaba’s bottom line remains to be seen, achieving double-digit revenue growth across its specific segments amid strategic pricing adjustments underscores the company’s resilience and adaptability in an ever-evolving market landscape.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Alibaba’s (BABA) Secret Weapon for Future Growth

OPEC+ extending key oil production cuts

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 1.51% (for the week -1.03%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was up by 0.80% (for the week -0.07%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.01% (for the week -0.31%). Stocks rallied sharply in the last 20 minutes of the session on Friday, reversing losses seen earlier in the day. The volatility arose partly due to the last trading day of the month and the rebalancing of some stock indexes.

On Friday, the US equity indices received support from a 4.6 bps decline in 10-year T-note yields on the back of the expected US PCE deflator, which kept hopes alive for a Fed interest rate cut later this year. The April PCE deflator report of 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y was unchanged from March and in line with market expectations. The April report on core PCE deflator 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y also matched market expectations. The nominal and real PCE deflators are still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, but these measures are at least near or at 3-year lows. The PCE deflator is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Dell Technologies (DELL) fell 17.87% after reporting earnings that were below expectations and undermined high hopes for the company’s artificial intelligence server products.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.01% (for the week -1.10%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.18% (for the week -1.18%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.14% (for the week +0.55%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.54% (for the week -0.77%).

Eurozone government bond yields rose on Friday amid a disappointing Eurozone CPI report. The preliminary Eurozone CPI for May rose to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% in April and was slightly stronger than market expectations of 2.5%. Eurozone preliminary core CPI for May rose to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% in April and was stronger than market expectations of 2.7%. After this week’s meeting, Friday’s CPI report dampened expectations of a further ECB rate cut. Swaps estimate the probability of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on June 6 at 96%. If the ECB cuts rates by 25 bps this week as expected, markets expect a 0% probability of another rate cut at the next meeting on July 18 and a 50% probability of a rate cut at the September 12 meeting.

OPEC+ has extended production cuts in an attempt to support a fragile market and has also set a date for oil production to resume later this year. This includes a voluntary production cut of 3.66 million bpd expiring at the end of 2024 and extending another round of cuts of 2.2 million bpd through the end of the third quarter of this year. Meanwhile, eight OPEC+ countries have said they plan to phase out additional cuts of 2.2 million bpd annually from October 2024 to September 2025.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.72% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.89% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 2.83% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.96%.

The offshore yuan fell to 7.263 per dollar, primarily due to seasonal demand for foreign currency, which puts downward pressure on the exchange rate. Such demand usually occurs between May and August, when Chinese companies listed overseas must buy foreign currencies to pay dividends to their shareholders abroad, forcing them to sell yuan.

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in May 2024 from 51.4 in April, beating forecasts of 51.5. It was the seventh straight month of growth in factory activity and the fastest pace since June 2022, as output rose by the most in 23 months amid a rise in new orders.

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate for May 2024 eased to 2.84% from 3.0% in April, beating market expectations of 2.94%. It was the lowest since February and remained within the central bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5% as food prices rose the least since January (6.18% vs. 7.04% in April).

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3 in May 2024, unchanged from the previous month. This marked the second consecutive month of increased activity at enterprises because of strong growth in new orders and accelerating output growth. Foreign sales increased, albeit to a lesser extent than total new orders. Although employment declined for the second consecutive month, work in progress remained stable, and purchasing activity picked up again as demand for products increased.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,277.51 +42.03 (+0.80%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,686.32 +574.84 (+1.51%)

DAX (DE40) 18,497.94 +1.15 (+0.01%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,275.38 +44.33 (+0.54%)

USD Index 104.63 −0.09 (−0.09%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Trade of the Week: USDInd seeks fresh directional catalyst

By ForexTime 

  • USDInd ends May ↓1.7%
  • ECB meeting & NFP in focus
  • Over past year ECB triggered moves of 0.6% ↑ or ↓
  • Trapped in D1 range since mid-May
  • Technical levels – 105.20 and 104.20

After bouncing within a 1000-point range since mid-May, FXTM’s USDInd is on breakout watch!

A high-risk cocktail featuring the European Central Bank (ECB) and US jobs report could rock the index this week.

Note: FXTM’s USDInd tracks the US Dollar Index.  This measures how the dollar performs against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

Interestingly, the dollar depreciated against every single G10 currency in May.

Three heavy-hitting events in May knocked the dollar.

Starting from the dovish Fed meeting, soft US April jobs report, and cooler-than-expected CPI print. Last Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – core PCE also printed below market forecasts, keeping the doors open for lower interest rates in 2024.

With all the above said, here are 3 reasons why the USDInd could see significant moves this week:

    1) ECB rate decision

The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday, June 6th.

So, the focus will be on the press conference for fresh insight into what to expect in H2, especially after Germany and Eurozone inflation edged up in May.

Note: The Euro accounts for almost 60% of the US Dollar Index weighting. A weaker euro tends to push the index higher and vice versa.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 90% probability of a second 25-basis point cut by October with the odds of a third cut by the end of 2024 around 40%.

  • The USDInd could push higher if the ECB strikes a dovish tone, and signals further cuts down the road.
  • Should the central bank sound more hawkish and signal a “one and done” rate cut for 2024, this may send the USDInd lower.

Fun fact: Over the past 12 months, the ECB rate decision has sparked upside moves as much as 0.6% or declines of 0.6% in the 6 hours post-release.

 

    2) US May NFP report

This major economic release is likely to influence expectations around when the Fed cuts rates in 2024.

Markets expect the US economy to have created 190k jobs in May, compared to the 175k in the previous month while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.9%.

Traders are currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 25-basis point cut by September with this jumping to over 90% by November.

  • A soft jobs report that boosts Fed cut bets may send the USDInd lower.
  • If the jobs data prints above market forecasts, this may push the USDInd higher.

Fun fact: Over the past 12 months, the US jobs report has trigged up moves as much as 0.4% or declines of 0.6% in the 6 hours after release.

    3) Technical forces

Prices remain in a range on the daily charts with support at 104.20 and resistance at 105.20.  

  • A sold breakout above 105.20 may signal a move towards 105.60.
  • Should prices slip below 104.20, bears may be encouraged to target 103.90.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

GBP and Euro Speculator bets rise for multiple weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (24,349 contracts), the EuroFX (16,097 contracts), the Australian Dollar (6,317 contracts), Canadian Dollar (4,239 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (3,416 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,027 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,076 contracts), the US Dollar Index (656 contracts) and with Bitcoin (134 contracts) also having a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,672 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-3,721 contracts).

GBP and Euro Speculator bets rise for multiple weeks

To start this week’s COT currency roundup, the Euro positions have continued to improve after the speculator contracts dropped into a bearish position in late-April. This was the first time since September of 2022 that Euro bets had fallen into negative territory. Since then, the Euro speculative bets have risen for five straight weeks and by a total of +67,561 contracts in that period. Euro bets, currently at +57,572 contracts, have now climbed back to the best level in the past eleven weeks, dating back to March 12th. The EURUSD exchange rate still has some work to do as it remains below the 1.10 major resistance area.

The British pound sterling speculator contracts rose again this week and has jumped by over +20,000 contracts for the second consecutive week. Overall, the GBP bet have now improved for four straight weeks with a gain of +54,392 contracts in the past four weeks. The speculator standing has now come out of a four-week bearish position (April 23rd to May 14th) and is at the highest level since April. The GBPUSD exchange rate has recently hit its highest level since March and is trading around 1.2600 currently. On a trade-weighted basis, Reuters notes that the GBP is near the highest since Brexit.

The Australian dollar speculator bets rose this week for a second consecutive week and have now improved in eight out of the past ten weeks. The AUD position has gained a total of +57,622 contracts over the past ten weeks and has brought the level from a record bearish position of -107,538 contracts on March 19th to a total of -49,916 contracts this week. The current standing is the least bearish level in the past nineteen weeks, dating back to January 16th.

The US dollar index positions increased slightly again this week and have now risen for eight consecutive weeks. The speculator standing had fallen into a bearish position from March 26th to April 30th before coming back over to a bullish level in these past four weeks. That bearish level had marked the first time the USD index bets had been negative since 2021.

The New Zealand dollar speculator position gained for a second straight week and came out of a bearish level into a bullish position this week. The NZD bets had been bearish or negative for the past ten weeks with a recent bearish high of -12,047 contracts taking place on April 23rd. The NZD positioning has been on a rollercoaster of ups and (mostly) downs since 2021 while the NZDUSD exchange had been on the defensive over that time. However, the exchange rate for the NZD versus the USD has started to see higher lows on the weekly charts and is challenging the downward sloping trendline that started in 2021 – pointing to a possible breakout scenerio.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (91 percent) and the British Pound (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (66 percent), Australian Dollar (59 percent) and the Bitcoin (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the Brazilian Real (2 percent), the Canadian Dollar (3 percent), the US Dollar Index (14 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (13.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (12.3 percent)
EuroFX (44.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (38.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (54.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (3.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (58.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (52.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (66.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (56.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (90.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (89.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.7 percent)
Bitcoin (55.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (53.0 percent)


Australian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (52 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (39 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (19 percent), the US Dollar Index (11 percent) and the British Pound (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-14 percent), Bitcoin (-6 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (10.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (9.8 percent)
EuroFX (19.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (11.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-18.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (6.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-14.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-2.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-27.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-10.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-42.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-39.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-5.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-11.1 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:70.617.59.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.231.15.9
– Net Position:4,174-5,4361,262
– Gross Longs:28,3257,0263,621
– Gross Shorts:24,15112,4622,359
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.789.225.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.8-8.7-11.4

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.857.212.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.169.97.9
– Net Position:57,572-84,65227,080
– Gross Longs:184,656380,22479,849
– Gross Shorts:127,084464,87652,769
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.857.522.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.3-21.017.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 24,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,053 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.643.912.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.255.910.0
– Net Position:25,402-32,1736,771
– Gross Longs:93,041118,10933,632
– Gross Shorts:67,639150,28226,861
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.127.776.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.1-19.738.6

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -156,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.875.913.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.824.816.1
– Net Position:-156,039166,122-10,083
– Gross Longs:28,565246,91142,324
– Gross Shorts:184,60480,78952,407
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.992.050.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-1.0-25.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -44,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.980.79.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.123.023.0
– Net Position:-44,36657,936-13,570
– Gross Longs:8,94380,9989,553
– Gross Shorts:53,30923,06223,123
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.5 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.099.515.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.17.514.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,239 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.171.811.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.937.612.5
– Net Position:-86,58590,353-3,768
– Gross Longs:37,299189,74529,401
– Gross Shorts:123,88499,39233,169
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.199.115.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.8-0.711.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.857.912.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.632.512.3
– Net Position:-49,91649,360556
– Gross Longs:53,892112,20924,416
– Gross Shorts:103,80862,84923,860
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.744.060.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:52.2-55.043.1

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.843.56.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.246.66.9
– Net Position:2,046-1,779-267
– Gross Longs:26,91625,0133,687
– Gross Shorts:24,87026,7923,954
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.236.350.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:39.1-39.933.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 120,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.539.82.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.486.31.2
– Net Position:120,919-124,6983,779
– Gross Longs:151,468106,7427,111
– Gross Shorts:30,549231,4403,332
– Long to Short Ratio:5.0 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.89.435.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.33.5-3.9

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,076 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.279.12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.829.63.9
– Net Position:-36,58237,302-720
– Gross Longs:6,94059,6012,182
– Gross Shorts:43,52222,2992,902
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.999.027.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-42.242.8-13.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -756 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.24.05.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.74.52.8
– Net Position:-756-148904
– Gross Longs:22,7611,2141,763
– Gross Shorts:23,5171,362859
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.060.933.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.94.25.2

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.