Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 3

29 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (30,388 contracts) with Coffee (18,396 contracts), Corn (14,274 contracts), Soybeans (9,349 contracts), Wheat (9,296 contracts and Cocoa (5,528 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-21,450 contracts) with Cotton (-10,557 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,666 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,806 contracts) and Sugar (-3,264 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-24-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,628,04421300,76541-340,9585940,19360
Gold463,47619149,38543-165,8736016,48822
Silver123,9801224,33253-34,5705210,23823
Copper224,70462-20,7601321,40189-64114
Palladium22,459100-11,240211,0859815551
Platinum84,61093-48014-4,832835,31239
Natural Gas1,211,45051-70,2724751,2215719,05125
Brent127,0948-38,1713734,548633,62360
Heating Oil322,7914531,98881-51,4712819,48363
Soybeans814,7266336,4545-24,48388-11,97175
Corn1,401,89827-48,2801183,03490-34,75483
Coffee199,6461818,20846-18,11358-9511
Sugar857,66138224,69572-271,6962647,00164
Wheat435,68586-59,9472456,978742,96980

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (89 percent) and Sugar (72 percent) led the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (61 percent), Coffee (46 percent) and Live Cattle (40 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (5 percent), Corn (11 percent) and Lean Hogs (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (71.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (73.1 percent)
Coffee (46.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (27.2 percent)
Soybeans (5.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (41.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (43.7 percent)
Live Cattle (40.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (63.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.4 percent)
Cotton (25.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (33.7 percent)
Cocoa (88.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (82.9 percent)
Wheat (24.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (17.6 percent)

 

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (36 percent) and Soybean Meal (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (6 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-39 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-22 percent), Soybeans (-19 percent) and Lean Hogs (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.5 percent)
Sugar (-7.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (35.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.7 percent)
Soybeans (-18.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-23.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-8.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-38.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.2 percent)
Cotton (-21.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.4 percent)
Cocoa (-10.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-15.0 percent)
Wheat (-7.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.246.69.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.640.712.4
– Net Position:-48,28083,034-34,754
– Gross Longs:283,037653,322139,285
– Gross Shorts:331,317570,288174,039
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.589.682.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-5.5-7.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 224,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.438.210.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.269.95.3
– Net Position:224,695-271,69647,001
– Gross Longs:320,884328,05592,632
– Gross Shorts:96,189599,75145,631
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.926.263.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.18.0-8.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.642.75.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.551.85.2
– Net Position:18,208-18,113-95
– Gross Longs:55,11385,25110,332
– Gross Shorts:36,905103,36410,427
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.157.911.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:35.7-33.7-10.4

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.654.37.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.157.38.5
– Net Position:36,454-24,483-11,971
– Gross Longs:135,138442,21957,078
– Gross Shorts:98,684466,70269,049
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.488.475.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.815.211.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.248.46.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.555.66.1
– Net Position:31,139-33,4622,323
– Gross Longs:98,579225,46930,536
– Gross Shorts:67,440258,93128,213
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.265.322.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.611.8-29.9

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 106,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 30,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.538.210.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.163.76.1
– Net Position:106,326-126,45020,124
– Gross Longs:131,878189,96550,190
– Gross Shorts:25,552316,41530,066
– Long to Short Ratio:5.2 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.639.145.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.0-10.85.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 56,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.934.69.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.552.312.3
– Net Position:56,857-49,115-7,742
– Gross Longs:102,83296,61826,491
– Gross Shorts:45,975145,73334,233
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.362.748.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.535.336.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.939.510.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.528.910.1
– Net Position:-20,72120,67150
– Gross Longs:54,41476,96619,814
– Gross Shorts:75,13556,29519,764
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.688.883.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.414.218.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.249.15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.660.14.3
– Net Position:22,680-26,2153,535
– Gross Longs:64,477116,37013,814
– Gross Shorts:41,797142,58510,279
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.872.637.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.623.0-32.0

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 77,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.226.64.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.552.33.9
– Net Position:77,020-79,9602,940
– Gross Longs:128,61183,20714,982
– Gross Shorts:51,591163,16712,042
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.511.725.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.811.6-9.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -59,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.034.58.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.721.48.1
– Net Position:-59,94756,9782,969
– Gross Longs:121,807150,41238,208
– Gross Shorts:181,75493,43435,239
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.274.579.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.38.4-0.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
13 Oct

Cocoa prices are surging: west African countries should seize the moment to negotiate a better deal for farmers

By Michael E Odijie, UCL 

The global price of cocoa is spiking, a direct response to dwindling cocoa output in west Africa. In September, cocoa futures reached a 44-year price peak due to mounting concerns over reduced supplies from the region.

The price surge could prove to be a critical moment for cocoa farming and policy in west Africa.

The cocoa-producing belt of west Africa is responsible for generating over 80% of the total global output. Between them, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire contribute more than 60% to the global output. Ghana is the second-biggest producer in the world and cocoa is a vital component of the country’s economy.

The global price spike has led west African governments to increase the guaranteed producer prices to farmers. Ghana recently raised the state-guaranteed cocoa price paid to farmers by two thirds. The announcement means that Ghana’s cocoa farmers will be paid 20,943 cedis (US$1,837) per tonne for the upcoming 2023-2024 season, up from 12,800 cedis.

Cameroon, the world’s fourth-largest cocoa producer, raised the price cocoa farmers get to 1,500 CFA francs (US$2.50) per kilogram, a 25% jump from the previous rate of 1,200 CFA francs. This increase is even more significant than Ghana’s when factoring in Cameroon’s single-digit inflation. Additionally, the Cote d’Ivoire government has announced a rise in the producer price.

As an economics researcher who has extensively studied and written about cocoa production in west Africa, I contend that the recent shortages can be harnessed to strengthen the position of cocoa producers. This will enable them to address the structural challenges ingrained in the cocoa production value chain. Rising production costs have not been recognised in the value of cocoa beans. Farmers therefore haven’t been able to earn enough income and this has led to unsustainable farming practices.

In my view, west African countries should use the cocoa shortage as negotiating leverage against multinational corporations to address these structural issues. Both Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire must recognise this pivotal moment. They must take the lead, and frame the current production challenges as deep-seated structural problems requiring solutions, rather than as short-term issues.

What’s driving the change?

Ghana’s cocoa regulator recently indicated that its farmers might not be able to meet some cocoa contract obligations for another season. Ghana’s projected cocoa yield for the 2022/23 planting season was the lowest in 13 years, falling 24% short of the initial estimates of 850,000 metric tonnes.

This trend has been repeated across the region, with production falling in Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon.

Reduced output means demand can’t be met and global prices rise.

The reduction in cocoa output is attributed to short-term and long-term factors.

Commentators typically emphasise the short-term factors:

  • poor weather conditions
  • black pod disease, which causes cocoa pods to rot
  • the decline in the number of cocoa farmers, some of them selling their land to illegal miners
  • a shortage of fertilisers and pesticides, especially since the conflict in Ukraine has curtailed Russia’s export of potash and other fertilisers.

A number of long-term structural issues have beset cocoa farming in west Africa for decades. They shouldn’t be overshadowed by concerns with short-term problems.

The first is the declining availability of forest land and its connection to increasing production costs.

Over the last two decades, depletion of forest land has led farmers to turn to grasslands for replanting cocoa plants. This requires extensive land preparation, regular weeding around the cocoa trees, pruning, and the application of fertilisers and pesticides. What’s more, the plants are highly susceptible to disease. All these things result in increased labour costs.

None of these additional burdens have been incorporated into the pricing for sustainable cocoa production. In light of the new cost structure, cocoa beans have been undervalued for decades. Farmers have become poorer and are exploring alternative sources of livelihood.

The cost of sustainably cultivating cocoa in grasslands must be reflected in the price that farmers receive. Relying solely on market forces will not achieve this. For instance, every year, typically in September, the Ghana Cocoa Board announces the official producer price for cocoa beans for the upcoming cocoa season on behalf of the government. This official price is based on the anticipated export market price, with an understanding in Ghana that farmers should receive approximately 70% of it. However, the resulting market price, and consequently the producer price derived from it, often falls short of covering the costs of sustainable cocoa cultivation.

A path forward

What would it cost for cocoa farmers to cultivate cocoa beans sustainably, and ensure a living income, without contributing to deforestation or resorting to child labour?

If the market price falls below this cost (which isn’t static), then the farmers face exploitation, giving rise to many of the problems that plague the industry.

A few years ago, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire pioneered the introduction of the “living income differential” – a premium that cocoa buyers would pay on top of the market price to ensure that farmers earned a sustainable income from their produce. Despite its noble intent, the initiative faltered. It was not well thought through. And it came at a time when these countries had diminished bargaining clout in a saturated market. Now is a favourable moment.

The crisis in the sector puts cocoa producers in a stronger negotiating position.

Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire could collaborate with other regional countries, such as Nigeria and Cameroon, to negotiate a better position for their cocoa farmers, ensuring sustainable cultivation. There are many strategies these countries can explore, including supply management (such as buffer stocks, export controls, or quotas), price premiums and value addition.The Conversation

About the Author:

Michael E Odijie, Research associate, UCL

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities
08 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Cotton & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (10,996 contracts) with Cotton (10,382 contracts) and Soybean Oil (2,936 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-23,985 contracts) with Sugar (-21,858 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,769 contracts), Live Cattle (-8,766 contracts), Cocoa (-8,605 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-6,998 contracts), Coffee (-5,787 contracts) and Wheat (-1,333 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-03-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,787,49535349,56053-381,9465032,38645
Gold431,226491,22617-111,9828120,75632
Silver125,8471415,34440-30,3585715,01450
Copper208,79549-21,9121219,952881,96031
Palladium18,42186-9,71899,86193-14333
Platinum81,529852,61622-7,514784,89834
Natural Gas1,174,38644-79,2004061,7636417,43722
Brent118,9260-36,5434135,9216562218
Heating Oil330,8254838,94693-66,348527,40293
Soybeans803,4394922,5030-5,88095-16,62364
Corn1,367,90423-107,5442140,80398-33,25986
Coffee210,21525-14,4491313,4748997524
Sugar820,46830217,38268-255,1293237,74752
Wheat429,33383-61,3472358,242763,10582

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (81 percent) and Live Cattle (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (68 percent), Cotton (52 percent) and Soybean Oil (48 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (0 percent), Corn (2 percent) and Coffee (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (1.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (67.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (75.5 percent)
Coffee (12.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.5 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (37.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (48.5 percent)
Live Cattle (72.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (81.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (22.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (28.0 percent)
Cotton (52.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (44.7 percent)
Cocoa (81.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (90.1 percent)
Wheat (23.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.1 percent)

 

Cotton & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (17 percent) and Sugar (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (9 percent), Live Cattle (6 percent) and Lean Hogs (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-17 percent), Soybean Meal (-9 percent) and Corn (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-8.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.7 percent)
Sugar (11.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (16.9 percent)
Coffee (8.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (10.3 percent)
Soybeans (-16.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-7.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-0.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (5.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (7.1 percent)
Cotton (16.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.3 percent)
Cocoa (-7.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.4 percent)
Wheat (-18.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-20.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.649.210.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.438.912.5
– Net Position:-107,544140,803-33,259
– Gross Longs:281,318672,709137,063
– Gross Shorts:388,862531,906170,322
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.798.485.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.46.721.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 217,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.239.010.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.770.15.8
– Net Position:217,382-255,12937,747
– Gross Longs:305,051320,29485,730
– Gross Shorts:87,669575,42347,983
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.731.751.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.4-11.88.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.745.84.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.539.44.3
– Net Position:-14,44913,474975
– Gross Longs:53,92696,21710,119
– Gross Shorts:68,37582,7439,144
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.689.324.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.8-8.94.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.450.96.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.651.68.6
– Net Position:22,503-5,880-16,623
– Gross Longs:123,800408,74252,183
– Gross Shorts:101,297414,62268,806
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.094.864.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.814.63.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.246.97.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.061.45.0
– Net Position:50,941-60,6579,716
– Gross Longs:96,922195,66530,768
– Gross Shorts:45,981256,32221,052
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.751.249.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.40.7-2.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.443.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.560.55.9
– Net Position:64,775-78,58913,814
– Gross Longs:104,312203,00041,307
– Gross Shorts:39,537281,58927,493
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.566.017.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.010.5-11.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 86,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.830.48.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.953.712.9
– Net Position:86,338-72,244-14,094
– Gross Longs:138,41993,82525,803
– Gross Shorts:52,081166,06939,897
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.134.514.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.7-1.6-21.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.237.810.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.032.710.8
– Net Position:-9,0919,750-659
– Gross Longs:55,65672,01219,895
– Gross Shorts:64,74762,26220,554
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.279.180.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.1-3.210.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.242.66.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.069.03.2
– Net Position:58,162-66,4718,309
– Gross Longs:88,465107,18016,235
– Gross Shorts:30,303173,6517,926
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.545.366.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.9-15.0-2.4

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 69,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.329.74.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.755.43.5
– Net Position:69,933-72,8612,928
– Gross Longs:117,41984,48812,822
– Gross Shorts:47,486157,3499,894
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.318.925.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.27.3-2.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -61,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.633.89.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.920.28.3
– Net Position:-61,34758,2423,105
– Gross Longs:122,733144,90738,732
– Gross Shorts:184,08086,66535,627
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.275.581.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.919.68.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
29 Sep

Clean Beef Firm Sees Gold in Waste Streams

Source: Streetwise Reports  (9/27/23)

Consumers love beef, but producing this delicious meat at scale can be an environmental nightmare. However, freshly-proven technology from Bion Environmental Technologies Inc. promises to make beef “green” again. Read below to see why one technical analyst likes this company’s stock.

Despite the company being publicly traded for almost 30 years, you may not be familiar with Bion Environmental Technologies Inc. (BNET:OTCQB). The firm is a niche agricultural tech company with a focus on developing sustainable solutions for environmental issues in livestock agriculture.

Bion has focused on developing patented technology that provides advanced waste treatment and resource recovery for large-scale livestock production facilities (also known as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations or CAFOs), which, as many environmentalists can tell you, are some of the more polluting elements of modern large-scale agricultural production.

Bion Environmental Technologies’ third-generation tech platform (Gen3 Tech) can mitigate environmental problems, while simultaneously improving operational and resource efficiencies by recovering high-value co-products from CAFOs’ waste streams.

The tech is designed to capture and stabilize the various components of the effluent, converting them from liabilities into assets, including renewable energy, fertilizer products, and clean water, all key aspects of raising verifiably sustainable livestock.

The company is also focused on developing markets and distribution partners for its sustainable animal protein products and the low-carbon and organic fertilizer products it captures and upcycles from the waste stream.

The Catalyst: Controlled Steady State Ammonia Recovery at Scale

On September 19, Bion Environmental Technologies announced that its proof-of-concept ammonia recovery system at its Fair Oaks commercial scale demonstration facility had achieved and maintained controlled steady-state operations.

The release stated, “When at steady state, the system produces an ammonium distillate (solution), the base of Bion’s nitrogen fertilizer products. Bion has begun optimizing the system’s operating parameters so that it will meet Bion’s economic models for large-scale commercial projects.”

The release anticipates at least four to eight weeks for optimization, after which time the final design for commercial projects can begin.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund addressed the stock on August 24, 2023, writing, “This looks like a good point to buy Bion Environmental Tech which, after being in a downtrend for much of this year, hit bottom in mid-July when it briefly touched $0.90 as we can see on its latest 3-month chart.”

The Ammonia Recovery System (ARS) at the core of the Gen3 Tech platform recovers, stabilizes, and upcycles the problematic ammonia-nitrogen in the waste stream, minimizing its environmental impacts and creating organic and low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer products.

Today, raw waste is spread on fields for its fertilizer value; however, most of the ammonia volatilizes or runs off to contribute to groundwater nitrate contamination, harmful (some toxic) algae blooms and dead zones, and formation of PM2.5, small particulate air pollution.

The release continued, “In the next few weeks, Bion intends to produce ammonium distillate at Fair Oaks in several concentrations and apply for organic certification for each product. Bion will also produce a solid/granular water-soluble nitrogen product that is climate-smart — a pure nitrogen fertilizer with a low carbon footprint that can be easily shipped and is readily available to plants.”

The company has applied to several state agencies to certify the granular product for use in organic production.

Company CEO Bill O’Neil said the company is “Very pleased with system performance at Fair Oaks, and to be back in control of our timelines. Over the next few weeks, we will conduct demonstration tours with key stakeholders in the beef industry, potential partners in distribution, banking, and project finance, and others as we establish the strategic relationships needed to develop commercial projects.”

Why This Industry? Green Concerns are Global

O’Neil continues, “Today, many are focused on climate impacts, but we believe the larger issue with livestock is ammonia, which is of increasing concern in the U.S., especially in California and Washington.”

“In the EU, a nitrogen cap has already led to social and political unrest in Ireland and the Netherlands. We think the value of being able to upcycle and redirect that ammonia so that its nitrogen can be used where and when it is needed cannot be overemphasized.”

Indeed, nitrogen has become a serious agricultural and environmental concern in many developed economies, especially those producing feedlot animals. As a 2022 article in MercoPress warns, “Farmers in the Netherlands are revolting over the government’s plan to drastically reduce nitrogen emissions by 2030.”

“This plan, as announced in practice, means that, in certain areas, farmers have to reduce their nitrogen emissions by 70%,” explains Marcel Crok, a Dutch science writer and co-founder of the Climate Intelligence Foundation. “That means they simply have to quit.”

“Most investors are familiar with the meteoric rise (and subsequent fall) of plant-based meat companies over 2021 and 2022,” Penny Queen explains. “I believe the lesson to be learned from it is two-fold: there is a great demand for alternatives to current farming practices, and there is still a massive demand for animal proteins. A recent survey by Midan Marketing showed that 62% of American consumers purchase premium beef.”

“I see BION being a steady grower over the next few years.”

However, with access to ammonia control practices and technologies like Bion’s, that might not be the case.

The article notes that “The proposal to sharply cut nitrogen emissions is tied to a 2019 Dutch court decision forcing the nation’s government to take more aggressive measures to curb nitrogen emissions. The Netherlands, though, has heavily regulated agriculture emissions since the 1990s, and farmers have largely complied with such rules.”

“The Netherlands emits a large quantity of nitrogen because of its massive agriculture industry, which accounts for about 87% of the country’s 124 million kilograms of annual ammonia emissions, a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed. The nation exported US$26.8 billion worth of food products despite having a relatively tiny population compared to other major producers, according to World Bank data.”

“It is not very rational to curb Dutch agriculture if you realize that they have the highest production per acre in the world and therefore the environmental load per kilogram of food is lower than elsewhere,” explains Simon Rozendaal, a Dutch journalist and chemist.

Of course, the Netherlands is only one country facing the harsh environmental reality of industrial-scale agricultural production. Ireland, likewise, has farmers in its crosshairs.

On September 7, writing for Tri-State Livestock News, Chris McCullough reported that “Dairy farmers in the Republic of Ireland say the government does not care for the agriculture industry after threatened cuts to the country’s nitrogen derogation levels were imposed.”

“According to the National Trust for Ireland, the Nitrates Derogation is a license to spread more organic nitrogen per hectare on land than is routinely permitted under the Nitrates Directive. According to the text of the Directive, organic Nitrogen is livestock manure applied to the land each year, including by the animals themselves.”

“The current derogation limit of 250 kg/ha was due to expire on January 1, 2026, but Ireland’s failure to improve water quality has forced an EU reduction to 220 kg/ha. This new level is set to commence on January 1, 2024, in some areas, affecting around 3,000 farmers, ultimately forcing them to reduce cattle numbers or find more land to rent.”

“Dairy farmers are furious and have blamed the government for putting the future of Ireland’s multi-billion euro dairy industry in jeopardy.”

Clearly, this is a cross-jurisdictional international issue that will continue to plague producers well into the future. Alleviating the environmental stress food production causes while allowing countries to maintain viable herd sizes is an important social, structural, and food security goal, one in which Bion Environmental Technologies could play a significant role. More so, could certain regions of the U.S., where overconcentration has already led to profound impacts on local and downstream ecosystems, be next?

Why This Company? Proven Tech, No Competition

With the announcement of its successful startup at its Fair Oaks commercial scale demonstration facility, Bion Environmental Technologies has taken a big step in leading the fight to stop and reverse the environmental damage caused by CAFO facilities. When asked about competitors and comparable businesses, CEO O’Neill wasn’t able to name any other firm working on the same problems in the same manner.

“I don’t know of any true competitors,” he explained, “unless you want to count macro industry competitors, such as plant-based proteins, cellular meat. On the clean water side, Varcor/ Sedron Engineering has a tech that works for dairy but has limitations we can help with.”

“As far as the US$66 billion U.S. beef industry? No one else has developed a comprehensive solution for that sector of the livestock industry. We are unique.”

Why Now? Inflection Point From R&D to Sales

Bion Environmental Technologies could be said to be at a sweet spot right now. The company is transitioning from decades of research and development into full-swing commercialization, and all the things that come with that transition –team building, establishing partnerships and strategic alliances, as well as expanding the board, completing a private placement, and retaining an investment banker, all with the goal of uplisting to a senior exchange.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund addressed the stock on August 24, 2023, writing, “This looks like a good point to buy Bion Environmental Tech which, after being in a downtrend for much of this year, hit bottom in mid-July when it briefly touched $0.90 as we can see on its latest 3-month chart.”

“Since hitting this low, it has stabilized in a triangular pattern that comprises the latter part of what is believed to be a Head-and-Shoulders bottom, with the Left Shoulder forming in mid-June. A big reason that a valid H&S Bottom is believed to have formed is the strong volume pattern since July, with most of the volume in recent weeks being upside volume, which is why the Accumulation line has risen in a robust manner and the dissipation of downside volume.”

“On the long-term 3-year chart,” Maund continued, “We can clearly see why this is a good point for Bion to turn higher again as the downtrend from early this year has brought it back down to a zone of strong support close to long-term cyclical lows and this also shows us another attribute of this stock, for as we can see it has the habit of occasionally erupting into steep and spectacular rallies that are then followed by ‘cooling off’ periods in long and tedious downtrends.”

“Right now, it looks like it will soon break out into a possible rocket move, and if anyone who buys in this area is fortunate enough to catch such a move, it will probably be prudent to take profits if it should make it to the resistance at the top of the broad channel shown on this chart. Bion Environmental Tech is therefore rated a strong buy here for all timeframes.”

Writing in January of this year, Penny Queen was equally optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects. “What really sticks out to me about their latest announcement is how it ties Bion to Walmart. The company has been careful with its words, but you don’t have to look very deep to see the connection.”

“Bion is now planning a 45k head project with Olson Farms/TD Angus. It is worth noting that Olson Farms/TD Angus is a founding member of Sustainable Beef, LLC, a rancher-owned, US$325 million packing plant being developed in North Platte, NE.”

“Walmart just announced an equity investment to buy a minority stake in Sustainable Beef, LLC. Connecting the dots seems pretty easy here. It looks like Walmart is showing that they have sufficient demand for a premium product and want to secure its distribution. In late September, Bion added Bill Rupp to its Advisory Group; he also happens to be a principal of Sustainable Beef, LLC., a former president at Cargill and JBS, two of the world’s top three meat packers.”

“Most investors are familiar with the meteoric rise (and subsequent fall) of plant-based meat companies over 2021 and 2022,” Penny Queen explains. “I believe the lesson to be learned from it is two-fold: there is a great demand for alternatives to current farming practices, and there is still a massive demand for animal proteins. A recent survey by Midan Marketing showed that 62% of American consumers purchase premium beef.”

“I see BION being a steady grower over the next few years.”

Ownership and Share Structure

About 44% of the company is held by management and insiders and about 5% by strategic investors, Bion said. The rest is retail.

The stock is covered by several newsletter writers, including Maund, Matt Badiali, and Chris Temple, editor of The National Investor. Click in the data box above to view more of what they are saying.

Bion has a market cap of US$60.36 million and 48.9 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$2.30 and US$0.505.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Owen Ferguson wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
  2. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Financial News Soft Commodities
17 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (9,014 contracts) with Live Cattle (6,055 contracts), Lean Hogs (5,402 contracts) and Cocoa (1,403 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-42,356 contracts) with Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,933 contracts), Cotton (-5,028 contracts), Soybean Meal (-4,467 contracts), Wheat (-3,209 contracts) and Soybeans (-2,112 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,791,69635326,87147-348,7135721,84224
Gold441,2219123,86432-144,8106820,94632
Silver125,2921418,03344-32,0405514,00744
Copper196,19839-12,334209,886802,44834
Palladium17,83882-10,712210,76199-4939
Platinum87,0211006,72131-12,396685,67544
Natural Gas1,171,74744-112,0442786,5237425,52141
Brent136,16013-48,6101747,9459066518
Heating Oil334,3955036,92292-62,799725,87788
Soybeans740,0473685,21723-68,44073-16,77764
Corn1,268,17610-87,9880118,836100-30,84890
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar996,53270244,43577-297,7251953,29072
Wheat391,66961-49,6193246,521663,09882

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (77 percent), Soybean Meal (51 percent) and Cotton (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybeans (23 percent), Lean Hogs (29 percent) and Wheat (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.7 percent)
Sugar (77.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (74.1 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (22.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (23.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (44.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (50.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (53.1 percent)
Live Cattle (78.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.6 percent)
Cotton (47.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.2 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.6 percent)
Wheat (31.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.8 percent)

 

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (12 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (6 percent), Lean Hogs (3 percent) and Live Cattle (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-23 percent), Wheat (-17 percent) and Soybean Meal (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-26.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-18.3 percent)
Sugar (11.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.5 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-11.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (1.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-9.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-2.6 percent)
Cotton (5.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.9 percent)
Cocoa (9.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.5 percent)
Wheat (-16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-18.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -87,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -42,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.949.510.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.840.212.7
– Net Position:-87,988118,836-30,848
– Gross Longs:264,473628,085130,320
– Gross Shorts:352,461509,249161,168
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.089.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.422.055.4

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 244,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 235,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.044.89.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.474.74.6
– Net Position:244,435-297,72553,290
– Gross Longs:328,566446,54298,865
– Gross Shorts:84,131744,26745,575
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.318.872.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.6-15.624.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.03.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.751.43.9
– Net Position:8,495-8,052-443
– Gross Longs:42,19084,6066,662
– Gross Shorts:33,69592,6587,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.167.97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.0-19.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 85,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.049.56.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.558.89.0
– Net Position:85,217-68,440-16,777
– Gross Longs:162,761366,43449,882
– Gross Shorts:77,544434,87466,659
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.673.263.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.29.33.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.650.96.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.862.94.5
– Net Position:46,002-56,33810,336
– Gross Longs:97,027240,10531,734
– Gross Shorts:51,025296,44321,398
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.853.452.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.62.30.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.941.49.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.664.85.5
– Net Position:88,283-107,25518,972
– Gross Longs:109,513189,17743,929
– Gross Shorts:21,230296,43224,957
– Long to Short Ratio:5.2 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.649.940.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.811.90.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.328.68.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.952.613.1
– Net Position:92,544-77,999-14,545
– Gross Longs:144,38393,33328,157
– Gross Shorts:51,839171,33242,702
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.727.48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.72.3-19.3

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.737.59.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.135.111.8
– Net Position:-7304,709-3,979
– Gross Longs:66,42573,89719,379
– Gross Shorts:67,15569,18823,358
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.174.665.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-0.6-12.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 51,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.242.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.669.03.7
– Net Position:51,382-60,1878,805
– Gross Longs:86,92296,89017,240
– Gross Shorts:35,540157,0778,435
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.449.669.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-4.6-4.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,220 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.124.74.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.655.43.1
– Net Position:87,623-91,4933,870
– Gross Longs:140,00473,43413,097
– Gross Shorts:52,381164,9279,227
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.035.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.7-10.15.8

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.234.010.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.822.19.3
– Net Position:-49,61946,5213,098
– Gross Longs:114,277133,15239,447
– Gross Shorts:163,89686,63136,349
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.566.181.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.711.734.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
09 Sep

Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (26,991 contracts) with Cotton (11,560 contracts), Wheat (3,847 contracts), Cocoa (2,999 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,659 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Corn (-9,819 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,481 contracts), Soybeans (-4,833 contracts), Soybean Oil (-619 contracts) and Live Cattle (-976 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,703,13027299,32240-308,997679,6750
Gold438,6728138,00638-158,2396320,23331
Silver128,2791726,80456-37,7084810,90427
Copper193,59737-6,770254,659752,11132
Palladium17,64480-11,021010,88810013350
Platinum68,7215314,60249-19,001544,39927
Natural Gas1,169,72543-118,2792590,7167627,56345
Brent129,4177-44,6822444,2268345615
Heating Oil319,4914438,73796-67,126028,38997
Soybeans716,2003187,32923-68,84373-18,48660
Corn1,229,7005-45,632379,96594-34,33384
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar966,99263235,42174-289,8052154,38473
Wheat376,77053-46,4103444,160642,25078

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Sugar (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (72 percent), Soybean Meal (53 percent) and Soybean Oil (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (3 percent) and Soybeans (23 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (25 percent) and the Wheat (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (2.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.3 percent)
Sugar (74.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (64.6 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (23.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (50.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (53.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (56.7 percent)
Live Cattle (72.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (73.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (23.3 percent)
Cotton (51.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (42.5 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (96.9 percent)
Wheat (33.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (31.1 percent)

 

Cotton & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (14 percent) and Cocoa (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (6 percent), Soybean Oil (1 percent) and Lean Hogs (-3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-19 percent), Soybeans (-19 percent) and Wheat (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.1 percent)
Sugar (5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.3 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-18.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (1.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-7.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-9.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-18.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-2.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-3.1 percent)
Cotton (13.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.8 percent)
Cocoa (8.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.0 percent)
Wheat (-18.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-8.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -45,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,819 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.648.910.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.342.413.0
– Net Position:-45,63279,965-34,333
– Gross Longs:278,322601,098125,742
– Gross Shorts:323,954521,133160,075
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.794.283.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.014.052.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 235,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 26,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 208,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.842.910.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.572.94.6
– Net Position:235,421-289,80554,384
– Gross Longs:317,572415,11998,808
– Gross Shorts:82,151704,92444,424
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.121.273.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.5-11.730.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.03.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.751.43.9
– Net Position:8,495-8,052-443
– Gross Longs:42,19084,6066,662
– Gross Shorts:33,69592,6587,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.167.97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.0-19.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.551.46.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.461.09.4
– Net Position:87,329-68,843-18,486
– Gross Longs:161,468368,02448,992
– Gross Shorts:74,139436,86767,478
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.573.059.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.716.6-0.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.350.67.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.065.25.2
– Net Position:55,935-66,48310,548
– Gross Longs:105,904229,77534,049
– Gross Shorts:49,969296,25823,501
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.648.252.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.1-0.1-6.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.139.19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.863.85.6
– Net Position:92,750-112,19019,440
– Gross Longs:109,916178,23044,988
– Gross Shorts:17,166290,42025,548
– Long to Short Ratio:6.4 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.147.142.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.69.1-11.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 86,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,465 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.628.59.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.252.712.3
– Net Position:86,489-76,291-10,198
– Gross Longs:134,20589,58528,644
– Gross Shorts:47,716165,87638,842
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.229.532.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.57.116.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.339.49.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.434.711.1
– Net Position:-6,1329,659-3,527
– Gross Longs:63,71680,13319,036
– Gross Shorts:69,84870,47422,563
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.679.067.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.67.3-22.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.841.28.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.270.43.5
– Net Position:56,410-66,78610,376
– Gross Longs:91,09394,30418,327
– Gross Shorts:34,683161,0907,951
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.245.178.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-13.710.4

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 86,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.525.94.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.757.03.2
– Net Position:86,220-90,2123,992
– Gross Longs:137,72075,13613,139
– Gross Shorts:51,500165,3489,147
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.036.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-9.15.5

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.234.79.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.522.99.3
– Net Position:-46,41044,1602,250
– Gross Longs:109,981130,57837,412
– Gross Shorts:156,39186,41835,162
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.864.278.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.413.435.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
19 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Corn, Soybeans & Coffee lead Speculator Bets lower

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil with a small gain of just 316 contracts for the week.

All the other markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-52,693 contracts) with Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybeans (-18,130 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,204 contracts), Wheat (-9,081 contracts), Sugar (-7,790 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,324 contracts)Cocoa (-2,377 contracts), Live Cattle (-631 contracts) and Cotton (-426 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-15-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,702,76627242,10826-270,1017627,99335
Gold433,6115121,13630-141,9306920,79432
Silver138,215307,86129-23,2646615,40352
Copper224,21562-25,698920,665895,03350
Palladium20,511100-9,42369,72296-29924
Platinum84,557100116-5,866815,86547
Natural Gas1,168,18143-95,1833466,7556628,42848
Brent129,1847-43,2002741,206761,99436
Heating Oil332,7124931,67786-58,1811426,50490
Soybeans638,7851465,33315-43,64982-21,68449
Corn1,287,01913-26,966673,17493-46,20851
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar929,30655191,43359-228,4934037,06051
Wheat374,83951-31,8754433,91356-2,03865

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (97 percent) and Live Cattle (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (59 percent), Soybean Meal (51 percent) and Soybean Oil (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (6 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (21 percent) and the Coffee (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (5.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (14.4 percent)
Sugar (58.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (61.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (14.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (47.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (51.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (61.0 percent)
Live Cattle (76.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.3 percent)
Cotton (39.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (39.7 percent)
Cocoa (97.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (44.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.6 percent)

 

Cotton & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (28 percent) and Wheat (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (5 percent), Cocoa (5 percent) and Lean Hogs (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-16 percent), Corn (-12 percent) and Soybeans (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-14.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.4 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-10.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-7.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (5.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.2 percent)
Cotton (27.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (32.2 percent)
Cocoa (5.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.9 percent)
Wheat (9.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (17.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -52,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.649.610.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.743.913.7
– Net Position:-26,96673,174-46,208
– Gross Longs:277,537637,897129,791
– Gross Shorts:304,503564,723175,999
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.893.151.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.011.71.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 191,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.546.29.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.970.85.2
– Net Position:191,433-228,49337,060
– Gross Longs:274,489429,31785,080
– Gross Shorts:83,056657,81048,020
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.639.850.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.80.48.8

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.03.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.751.43.9
– Net Position:8,495-8,052-443
– Gross Longs:42,19084,6066,662
– Gross Shorts:33,69592,6587,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.167.97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.0-19.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 65,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,463 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.654.66.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.461.410.1
– Net Position:65,333-43,649-21,684
– Gross Longs:138,099348,48143,056
– Gross Shorts:72,766392,13064,740
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.881.749.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.19.8-6.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 50,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.252.27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.864.84.9
– Net Position:50,152-60,78610,634
– Gross Longs:97,149251,10934,124
– Gross Shorts:46,997311,89523,490
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.251.153.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.4-6.612.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 89,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.340.19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.062.15.5
– Net Position:89,760-108,12218,362
– Gross Longs:114,387197,15645,518
– Gross Shorts:24,627305,27827,156
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.449.437.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.50.523.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 90,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.328.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.854.413.0
– Net Position:90,669-78,404-12,265
– Gross Longs:136,25489,06827,615
– Gross Shorts:45,585167,47239,880
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.726.921.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.916.66.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.239.58.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.232.910.5
– Net Position:-10,67414,260-3,586
– Gross Longs:66,87484,65518,971
– Gross Shorts:77,54870,39522,557
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.983.167.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-0.5-5.9

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.543.07.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.167.13.2
– Net Position:40,718-50,5469,828
– Gross Longs:76,62990,26316,647
– Gross Shorts:35,911140,8096,819
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.456.175.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.5-30.955.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 77,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.628.43.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.457.82.5
– Net Position:77,125-80,6983,573
– Gross Longs:127,72477,86410,505
– Gross Shorts:50,599158,5626,932
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.31.732.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.1-5.75.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.436.79.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.927.610.0
– Net Position:-31,87533,913-2,038
– Gross Longs:110,356137,51535,301
– Gross Shorts:142,231103,60237,339
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.156.065.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.7-13.712.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
12 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (3,283 contracts) with Cocoa (1,288 contracts) and Live Cattle (348 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-54,347 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,297 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,122 contracts), Sugar (-12,378 contracts), Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybean Meal (-2,539 contracts), Cotton (-2,736 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-658 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-08-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,703,71127255,92829-278,3387422,41024
Gold427,7593142,98540-167,5545924,56942
Silver137,6312913,32437-30,3495717,02561
Copper228,53765-10,057224,908765,14951
Palladium20,470100-10,192010,299100-10735
Platinum79,9891002,99222-8,591765,59943
Natural Gas1,183,14646-107,8432981,7177226,12642
Brent121,5940-34,7404432,092582,64845
Heating Oil324,9344630,88184-57,5161526,63591
Soybeans628,1821283,46322-63,65275-19,81154
Corn1,284,4331225,7271626,79486-52,52140
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar912,26051199,22361-230,7693931,54643
Wheat343,98234-22,7945125,57849-2,78463

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (61 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Wheat (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (16 percent) and Soybeans (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (25 percent) and the Coffee (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (16.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (25.2 percent)
Sugar (61.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (65.7 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (22.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (47.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (62.4 percent)
Live Cattle (77.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (25.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.2 percent)
Cotton (39.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (41.7 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.6 percent)
Wheat (50.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (48.2 percent)

 

Cotton & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (32 percent) and Wheat (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (10 percent), Cocoa (9 percent) and Lean Hogs (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-14 percent), Live Cattle (-13 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-14.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.2 percent)
Sugar (-7.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-17.5 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-7.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (13.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-12.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (11.9 percent)
Cotton (32.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (28.0 percent)
Cocoa (8.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.2 percent)
Wheat (17.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (28.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -54,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.648.39.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.646.213.7
– Net Position:25,72726,794-52,521
– Gross Longs:290,414619,891123,007
– Gross Shorts:264,687593,097175,528
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.585.740.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.014.01.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 211,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.245.58.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.470.84.9
– Net Position:199,223-230,76931,546
– Gross Longs:284,974414,85676,675
– Gross Shorts:85,751645,62545,129
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.339.143.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.45.44.4

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.03.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.751.43.9
– Net Position:8,495-8,052-443
– Gross Longs:42,19084,6066,662
– Gross Shorts:33,69592,6587,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.167.97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.0-19.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.952.96.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.663.110.0
– Net Position:83,463-63,652-19,811
– Gross Longs:150,115332,61042,925
– Gross Shorts:66,652396,26262,736
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.074.853.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.25.74.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.352.97.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.965.25.1
– Net Position:49,836-59,0019,165
– Gross Longs:97,041253,12433,351
– Gross Shorts:47,205312,12524,186
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.052.047.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.9-11.821.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 106,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,503 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.036.710.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.063.15.7
– Net Position:106,964-128,31321,349
– Gross Longs:126,380178,84048,850
– Gross Shorts:19,416307,15327,501
– Long to Short Ratio:6.5 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.038.151.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-8.331.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 91,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.929.39.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.654.913.2
– Net Position:91,300-79,969-11,331
– Gross Longs:136,91991,27729,710
– Gross Shorts:45,619171,24641,041
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.425.026.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.715.1-3.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.838.89.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.334.911.0
– Net Position:-5,3508,478-3,128
– Gross Longs:70,43683,30020,389
– Gross Shorts:75,78674,82223,517
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.378.069.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.2-9.6-1.9

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.044.77.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.868.03.3
– Net Position:41,144-49,9598,815
– Gross Longs:77,07895,59115,971
– Gross Shorts:35,934145,5507,156
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.756.569.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.2-35.457.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 79,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.726.63.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.854.22.8
– Net Position:79,502-81,6012,099
– Gross Longs:138,10778,50610,371
– Gross Shorts:58,605160,1078,272
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.717.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-6.4-21.7

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.837.09.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.429.510.4
– Net Position:-22,79425,578-2,784
– Gross Longs:105,903127,10732,948
– Gross Shorts:128,697101,52935,732
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.649.462.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.3-20.64.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
29 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (50,606 contracts) with Soybeans (27,699 contracts), Sugar (23,508 contracts), Cotton (19,503 contracts), Wheat (18,148 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,416 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,048 contracts), Cocoa (1,406 contracts) and Soybean Meal (9,078 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Live Cattle (-9,538 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-25-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,743,59831225,19622-250,9768025,78031
Gold476,17625173,63953-198,2104724,57142
Silver146,8983636,92571-49,7183412,79337
Copper234,713701,15932-3,904682,74536
Palladium16,760100-8,37708,899100-52210
Platinum64,1974815,48751-20,441514,95434
Natural Gas1,185,63846-97,1213370,9726826,14942
Brent135,1858-42,3502939,044723,30654
Heating Oil324,6104624,49872-48,4682923,97081
Soybeans676,64322134,98242-116,87656-18,10657
Corn1,280,2071270,47632-6,96675-63,51024
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar911,18551219,81469-251,3973331,58343
Wheat311,33915-20,5555227,40151-6,84650

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (82 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Wheat (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (27 percent) and Corn (32 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Coffee (36 percent) and the Cotton (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (24.3 percent)
Sugar (68.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (60.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (42.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (31.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.6 percent)
Live Cattle (81.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.3 percent)
Cotton (37.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.6 percent)
Cocoa (99.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (52.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (39.3 percent)

 

Wheat & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (47 percent) and Soybeans (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (23 percent), Cotton (20 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-18 percent), Sugar (-11 percent) and Cocoa (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.3 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (28.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.9 percent)
Wheat (47.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 50,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.848.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.349.213.9
– Net Position:70,476-6,966-63,510
– Gross Longs:291,631622,624114,321
– Gross Shorts:221,155629,590177,831
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.675.123.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.6-3.0-7.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 219,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.343.68.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.271.25.1
– Net Position:219,814-251,39731,583
– Gross Longs:303,615397,18878,190
– Gross Shorts:83,801648,58546,607
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.632.943.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.114.3-20.4

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.03.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.751.43.9
– Net Position:8,495-8,052-443
– Gross Longs:42,19084,6066,662
– Gross Shorts:33,69592,6587,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.167.97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.0-19.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 134,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.348.47.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.365.79.7
– Net Position:134,982-116,876-18,106
– Gross Longs:198,146327,69647,428
– Gross Shorts:63,164444,57265,534
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.256.457.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.3-27.819.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.953.97.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.667.74.8
– Net Position:54,043-66,22312,180
– Gross Longs:100,146258,12335,174
– Gross Shorts:46,103324,34622,994
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.548.358.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.1-28.355.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 106,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.636.89.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.062.85.2
– Net Position:106,329-128,32621,997
– Gross Longs:126,137181,44947,707
– Gross Shorts:19,808309,77525,710
– Long to Short Ratio:6.4 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.738.154.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-7.345.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 95,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.529.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.954.012.0
– Net Position:95,306-82,121-13,185
– Gross Longs:148,54398,40826,761
– Gross Shorts:53,237180,52939,946
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.722.416.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.322.4-7.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.637.111.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.136.410.3
– Net Position:-3,0131,4551,558
– Gross Longs:63,69874,77422,377
– Gross Shorts:66,71173,31920,819
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.271.790.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.2-23.011.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.746.08.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.170.03.8
– Net Position:37,984-46,6508,666
– Gross Longs:69,37089,36216,115
– Gross Shorts:31,386136,0127,449
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.358.768.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.2-21.630.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 77,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,406 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.927.53.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.250.22.7
– Net Position:77,894-81,3403,446
– Gross Longs:146,65098,70213,174
– Gross Shorts:68,756180,0429,728
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.91.031.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.11.0-8.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.038.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.630.111.2
– Net Position:-20,55527,401-6,846
– Gross Longs:90,416121,24528,164
– Gross Shorts:110,97193,84435,010
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.250.849.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:47.1-42.6-45.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
23 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (16,420 contracts) with Corn (12,059 contracts), Lean Hogs (628 contracts), Cocoa (6,373 contracts), Cotton (4,986 contracts), Wheat (1,708 contracts) and Sugar (2 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-2,570 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,657 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-6,592 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-18-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,768,18933206,09917-233,4908427,39134
Gold482,10428193,34862-213,7154120,36731
Silver146,8633643,86281-55,9832612,12134
Copper216,86256-3,55028-1,054714,60448
Palladium16,017100-8,35008,837100-48712
Platinum65,8345415,73652-19,674533,93821
Natural Gas1,234,29656-95,7623465,0846530,67853
Brent128,2482-45,7702242,386793,38455
Heating Oil331,7904921,39267-42,7853821,39372
Soybeans659,91719107,28331-81,46369-25,82040
Corn1,285,1761319,8702431,26881-51,13841
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar881,02044196,30660-226,2294129,92341
Wheat303,40710-38,7033943,03563-4,33258

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (60 percent), Soybean Meal (56 percent) and Soybean Oil (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (23 percent) and Corn (24 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (26 percent) and the Soybeans (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (24.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (22.6 percent)
Sugar (60.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (60.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (31.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (55.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (57.0 percent)
Live Cattle (92.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (96.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (26.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.8 percent)
Cotton (22.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.9 percent)
Cocoa (98.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (91.1 percent)
Wheat (39.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (38.1 percent)

 

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (37 percent) and Soybean Oil (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (27 percent), Lean Hogs (24 percent) and Corn (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-13 percent), Soybean Meal (-3 percent) and Live Cattle (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.0 percent)
Sugar (-13.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-19.2 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (26.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.8 percent)
Cotton (1.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.8 percent)
Cocoa (4.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.2 percent)
Wheat (36.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (38.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.148.69.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.546.213.5
– Net Position:19,87031,268-51,138
– Gross Longs:270,722624,697122,460
– Gross Shorts:250,852593,429173,598
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.380.840.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.0-5.30.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 196,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.843.88.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.669.55.4
– Net Position:196,306-226,22929,923
– Gross Longs:280,498386,22677,931
– Gross Shorts:84,192612,45548,008
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.340.541.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.315.9-19.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.03.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.751.43.9
– Net Position:8,495-8,052-443
– Gross Longs:42,19084,6066,662
– Gross Shorts:33,69592,6587,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.167.97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.0-19.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 107,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.148.67.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.860.911.3
– Net Position:107,283-81,463-25,820
– Gross Longs:185,158320,59248,459
– Gross Shorts:77,875402,05574,279
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.368.739.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.8-22.6-6.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.556.27.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.166.25.4
– Net Position:41,627-49,8608,233
– Gross Longs:91,700279,25034,970
– Gross Shorts:50,073329,11026,737
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.356.844.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.3-31.444.2

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.237.99.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.162.05.8
– Net Position:97,251-116,63619,385
– Gross Longs:117,168183,80747,602
– Gross Shorts:19,917300,44328,217
– Long to Short Ratio:5.9 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.644.742.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.40.622.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 104,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.729.38.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.054.712.6
– Net Position:104,844-89,634-15,210
– Gross Longs:154,268103,44529,170
– Gross Shorts:49,424193,07944,380
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.013.24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.89.4-38.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.137.910.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.135.810.2
– Net Position:-4,0614,462-401
– Gross Longs:63,83877,93620,508
– Gross Shorts:67,89973,47420,909
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.374.481.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.2-24.5-8.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.349.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.961.95.7
– Net Position:18,481-21,9293,448
– Gross Longs:57,41488,25913,524
– Gross Shorts:38,933110,18810,076
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.675.536.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.5-0.6-6.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.227.94.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.650.82.8
– Net Position:76,488-80,9644,476
– Gross Longs:145,70598,62214,265
– Gross Shorts:69,217179,5869,789
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.31.441.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.9-4.91.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,411 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.339.39.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.125.110.6
– Net Position:-38,70343,035-4,332
– Gross Longs:85,918119,24027,939
– Gross Shorts:124,62176,20532,271
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.363.358.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:36.9-33.9-33.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
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