Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 12

18 Jun
coffee_beans

COT Week 24 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Sugar & Cocoa

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while eight markets had lower speculator bets.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (8,511 contracts) and Live Cattle (7,316 contracts) with Soybeans (6,023 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-24,920 contracts) and Cocoa (-17,863 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-5,247 contracts), Cotton (-4,427 contracts), Wheat (-3,446 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,105 contracts), Coffee (-1,882 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-845 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Corn (81.1 percent and bullish-extreme) is at the highest level of the softs currently followed by Coffee and Soybean Meal. On the downside, Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) and Cocoa (14.3 percent) are in bearish-extreme levels and have the weakest speculator strength scores at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Coffee and Wheat have the only rising scores over the past six weeks. Cocoa leads the trends on the downside with a -39.1 percent trend change followed by Live Cattle (-17.9 percent) and Lean Hogs (-16 percent).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-14-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,715,6740302,9460-341,65410038,70870
Gold497,45613154,5980-178,56910023,97115
Silver151,9781814,0050-22,0471008,0420
Copper187,24717-13,7973210,287673,51046
Palladium7,7406-4,05704,354100-29727
Platinum66,613332,2147-6,793964,57926
Natural Gas1,053,2650-123,4854274,3105449,17596
Brent171,02617-36,3895034,601511,78833
Heating Oil268,199238,47555-28,6864120,21168
Soybeans754,42834182,66770-155,66337-27,00425
Corn1,521,56525399,77581-344,19623-55,57911
Coffee202,656046,88579-48,399251,5145
Sugar800,8061170,48372-198,0063127,52342
Wheat336,8901320,43546-18,08934-2,34698

 

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 399,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 391,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.244.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.967.212.8
– Net Position:399,775-344,196-55,579
– Gross Longs:519,685678,186139,407
– Gross Shorts:119,9101,022,382194,986
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.122.911.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.015.2-2.8

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 170,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.147.610.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.872.36.7
– Net Position:170,483-198,00627,523
– Gross Longs:233,102380,87680,955
– Gross Shorts:62,619578,88253,432
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.730.641.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.47.3-9.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.349.44.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.273.33.6
– Net Position:46,885-48,3991,514
– Gross Longs:55,397100,0608,883
– Gross Shorts:8,512148,4597,369
– Long to Short Ratio:6.5 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.325.35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-4.9-8.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 182,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,644 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.549.36.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.369.910.2
– Net Position:182,667-155,663-27,004
– Gross Longs:229,930371,67550,027
– Gross Shorts:47,263527,33877,031
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.837.125.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.42.9-3.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.350.99.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.473.45.5
– Net Position:73,398-87,10113,703
– Gross Longs:102,073198,01535,202
– Gross Shorts:28,675285,11621,499
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.843.464.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.914.5-1.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 88,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.643.812.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.573.65.9
– Net Position:88,831-114,73525,904
– Gross Longs:106,273168,51748,694
– Gross Shorts:17,442283,25222,790
– Long to Short Ratio:6.1 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.923.367.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.02.629.3

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.940.611.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.951.612.3
– Net Position:32,744-30,120-2,624
– Gross Longs:100,918110,94730,976
– Gross Shorts:68,174141,06733,600
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.472.172.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.915.410.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.743.99.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.843.813.8
– Net Position:7,386202-7,588
– Gross Longs:57,30584,83719,098
– Gross Shorts:49,91984,63526,686
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.893.757.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.020.7-15.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.141.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.979.54.5
– Net Position:66,255-75,6579,402
– Gross Longs:81,94182,99218,322
– Gross Shorts:15,686158,6498,920
– Long to Short Ratio:5.2 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.933.871.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.011.9-19.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.045.55.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.145.54.8
– Net Position:-3,369-1263,495
– Gross Longs:90,712142,23618,389
– Gross Shorts:94,081142,36214,894
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.385.831.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-39.142.0-32.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.338.010.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.343.411.4
– Net Position:20,435-18,089-2,346
– Gross Longs:105,566128,08736,114
– Gross Shorts:85,131146,17638,460
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.633.998.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.6-5.517.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities
15 Jun

Bullish Pattern Spotted for Two Agricultural Futures

By Ino.com

– There is an interesting bullish pattern popping up in the agricultural markets. It’s a pattern I spotted in gold in February, but now I’ve found it in at least two agricultural markets.

Soybean Futures – Cup & Handle

Let’s start with a soybean futures chart.

The soybean futures price hit an all-time high of $17.89/bushel in September 2012. After that, it started to collapse in several legs to the downside, losing half of its price by September 2015.

Chart of Soybeans
The spike in 2016 was short-lived, as the soybean futures had dropped again to establish the valley in 2019 at $7.91/bushel. Shortly after, the price had reversed to the upside and rallied to a peek last year at $16.675/bushel.

The recent price movement established the substantial “cup” of the pattern (blue). The following correction (orange) of the price has been relatively small compared to the cup. This correct creates the “Handle” part of the chart pattern. The handle bottomed just below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $11.845/bushel, and the price has spent the most of last year in the handle.

This year, the soybean futures price pushed over the handle in to break above the main trigger located at the right top of the cup at $16.675/bushel. The rapidly growing volume has supported that breakout. It is an excellent bullish sign.

The target for this pattern is computed by adding the height of the cup to the trigger point. This target is located at $25.44/bushel, a +46% gain from the last Friday’s close.

The invalidation trigger is located in the valley of the handle, below $11.845/bushel.

Corn Futures – Cup & Handle

The same Cup & Handle pattern shows up for corn futures. This time, the model looks smoother as the rounding bottom of the cup (blue) has no such sharp bounces as we saw in the soybean futures.

Chart of Corn Futures

The cup established the valley later than the soybean price movement. The price reached the minimum at $3.03/bushel in April 2020. The right top of the cup at $7.353/bushel is lower than the left side ($8.438/bushel).

The correction stage within the handle (orange) also bottomed below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.975/bushel. Although, it looks not as sharp as we saw it in soybean futures as the orange trendlines diverge did not converge.

The bullish move in corn futures at the start of this year has been even stronger as the price rallied both over the handle and over the trigger of $7.353/bushel. This huge move almost hit the all-time high of the left peak of the cup. The rising volume has confirmed the actual demand in the market.

The profit target for the pattern is at the height of the cup in addition to the trigger point. This mark is at the $11.703/bushel mark, which means +51% gain from the last Friday’s close.

The invalidation trigger is in the valley of the handle, below $4.975/bushel.

The projected rise of these agricultural futures means food inflation would persist for longer. The global inflation signal also comes from the bullish oil chart (main driver of inflation) and the bullish gold chart (a hedge against inflation).

I’ll keep looking for these technical patterns, so please visit back for my next analysis!

Aibek Burabayev
INO.com Contributor, Metals

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Bullish Pattern Spotted for Two Agricultural Futures

 

Opinions Soft Commodities
12 Jun

COT Week 23 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (8,922 contracts) and Live Cattle (5,888 contracts) with Coffee (5,752 contracts), Cocoa (4,341 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,604 contracts), Wheat (1,572 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,274 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-12,936 contracts) and Soybeans (-9,434 contracts) with Sugar (-6,277 contracts) and Cotton (-2 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Corn and Coffee are in extreme-bullish levels currently. On the opposite position, Live Cattle and Lean Hogs hold extreme-bearish levels while most of the other markets are in strong bullish positions between 50 percent and 80 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that despite the strong strength scores in the blue chart previously, the trends have been cooling off mightily. This chart shows that only Coffee and Wheat have had rising scores over the past six weeks. Live Cattle and Lean Hogs have had strong declines in the trends over the past six weeks followed by Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil and Corn.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-07-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,790,61810328,2568-369,0339340,77772
Gold494,13012175,2687-199,8869524,61818
Silver148,2941517,4045-27,9909410,58610
Copper194,18722-3,71440879602,83542
Palladium7,0353-3,46123,58197-12037
Platinum65,295315,93312-9,742923,80915
Natural Gas1,127,73110-114,3424466,4195247,92393
Brent169,80216-36,0985134,208501,89035
Heating Oil261,651204,88650-24,4284519,54266
Soybeans760,44435176,64468-148,39039-28,25423
Corn1,557,16731391,26480-337,13724-54,12712
Coffee222,5831548,76781-51,363232,59616
Sugar849,81412195,40377-234,4962439,09356
Wheat333,7051223,88150-19,86331-4,01890

 

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 391,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 404,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.443.28.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.364.912.3
– Net Position:391,264-337,137-54,127
– Gross Longs:520,783673,039137,311
– Gross Shorts:129,5191,010,176191,438
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.023.911.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.615.7-2.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 195,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.745.110.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.772.76.0
– Net Position:195,403-234,49639,093
– Gross Longs:252,688383,13890,314
– Gross Shorts:57,285617,63451,221
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.823.756.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.65.00.8

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.848.74.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.971.83.0
– Net Position:48,767-51,3632,596
– Gross Longs:57,417108,3439,164
– Gross Shorts:8,650159,7066,568
– Long to Short Ratio:6.6 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.022.616.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-5.3-11.4

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 176,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.247.36.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.066.810.2
– Net Position:176,644-148,390-28,254
– Gross Longs:229,895359,58749,303
– Gross Shorts:53,251507,97777,557
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.939.223.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.38.8-3.8

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 78,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.948.29.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.272.15.0
– Net Position:78,645-95,25816,613
– Gross Longs:107,372192,49336,684
– Gross Shorts:28,727287,75120,071
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.338.575.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.917.2-1.2

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 89,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.343.912.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.874.25.5
– Net Position:89,676-115,26125,585
– Gross Longs:107,791167,30646,628
– Gross Shorts:18,115282,56721,043
– Long to Short Ratio:6.0 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.423.065.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.814.0-1.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.540.511.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.948.711.9
– Net Position:25,428-24,212-1,216
– Gross Longs:104,585119,32433,798
– Gross Shorts:79,157143,53635,014
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.380.277.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.038.327.7

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.341.79.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.943.313.6
– Net Position:10,491-3,090-7,401
– Gross Longs:59,20781,58319,271
– Gross Shorts:48,71684,67326,672
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.289.858.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.827.8-8.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 70,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.937.78.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.575.73.6
– Net Position:70,682-80,3479,665
– Gross Longs:86,60979,71817,332
– Gross Shorts:15,927160,0657,667
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.731.073.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.17.6-12.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.443.95.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.350.14.0
– Net Position:14,494-17,8233,329
– Gross Longs:89,997125,90514,861
– Gross Shorts:75,503143,72811,532
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.868.629.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.011.3-14.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.934.810.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.740.811.6
– Net Position:23,881-19,863-4,018
– Gross Longs:109,678116,14634,706
– Gross Shorts:85,797136,00938,724
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.131.489.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-3.51.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities
04 Jun

COT Week 22 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Corn & Sugar

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soft Commodities speculator bets were mostly lower again this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Coffee (5,943 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,859 contracts) with Cocoa (1,570 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-23,648 contracts) and Sugar (-7,807 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-4,455 contracts), Wheat (-4,035 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,207 contracts), Soybeans (-2,290 contracts), Cotton (-1,836 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,153 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the softs markets are above their midpoints (50 percent) for the past 3 years as the soft commodities have been highly bid and have had strong speculator sentiment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that despite most of the softs markets having high speculator strength scores, there has been a cool-off for these markets over the past six weeks. Live cattle and lean hogs have seen the most weakness over the past six weeks followed by Cocoa and Soybean Meal.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-31-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,787,9289332,97610-373,7619140,78572
Gold513,72218172,5895-200,0569527,46732
Silver147,3011413,99715-23,861999,8646
Copper189,92319-18,0252915,425702,60040
Palladium6,5381-3,13343,22195-8839
Platinum67,964352,3637-6,501964,13820
Natural Gas1,115,8157-110,3684559,6795050,689100
Brent181,69925-40,8724338,941581,93135
Heating Oil349,618316,45552-32,4343725,97988
Soybeans753,37334186,07871-158,75734-27,32125
Corn1,564,21732404,20082-353,34822-50,85214
Coffee214,170843,01576-45,757282,74217
Sugar848,46311201,68078-240,7522339,07256
Wheat331,1361122,30948-18,64733-3,66291

 

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 404,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 427,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.342.19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.464.612.2
– Net Position:404,200-353,348-50,852
– Gross Longs:551,849657,849140,307
– Gross Shorts:147,6491,011,197191,159
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.721.613.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.314.6-3.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 201,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 209,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.645.110.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.873.55.9
– Net Position:201,680-240,75239,072
– Gross Longs:259,634382,46189,391
– Gross Shorts:57,954623,21350,319
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.122.556.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.810.4-20.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.551.54.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.472.93.1
– Net Position:43,015-45,7572,742
– Gross Longs:50,242110,3229,389
– Gross Shorts:7,227156,0796,647
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.027.717.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.0-0.3-9.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 186,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 188,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.647.36.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.968.310.2
– Net Position:186,078-158,757-27,321
– Gross Longs:237,836356,11549,891
– Gross Shorts:51,758514,87277,212
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.934.424.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.34.6-3.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 75,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.447.59.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.871.64.8
– Net Position:75,041-92,28717,246
– Gross Longs:105,091181,85735,597
– Gross Shorts:30,050274,14418,351
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.740.277.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.321.0-18.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.744.213.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.973.75.5
– Net Position:80,754-109,38428,630
– Gross Longs:106,453163,96648,928
– Gross Shorts:25,699273,35020,298
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.6 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.426.181.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.423.7-17.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.240.611.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.746.811.9
– Net Position:19,540-18,566-974
– Gross Longs:102,315121,35034,613
– Gross Shorts:82,775139,91635,587
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.987.978.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.937.426.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.642.09.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.843.213.3
– Net Position:9,217-2,209-7,008
– Gross Longs:57,32381,46518,708
– Gross Shorts:48,10683,67425,716
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.890.960.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.842.6-11.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,520 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.537.98.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.276.03.3
– Net Position:70,684-80,86410,180
– Gross Longs:85,97480,44617,230
– Gross Shorts:15,290161,3107,050
– Long to Short Ratio:5.6 to 10.5 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.730.776.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.210.1-17.8

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,583 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.443.05.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.147.74.2
– Net Position:10,153-14,3224,169
– Gross Longs:92,946131,53916,931
– Gross Shorts:82,793145,86112,762
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.672.038.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.728.0-25.8

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,344 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.435.59.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.741.111.0
– Net Position:22,309-18,647-3,662
– Gross Longs:113,964117,56532,778
– Gross Shorts:91,655136,21236,440
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.133.191.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.22.5-4.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities
28 May

COT Week 21 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mostly lower led by Corn & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soft Commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while eight markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Sugar (12,857 contracts) and Soybean Meal (8,607 contracts) with Soybeans (4,721 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-45,895 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-16,805 contracts) with Coffee (-1,415 contracts), Live Cattle (-12,283 contracts), Lean Hogs (-407 contracts), Cotton (-6,796 contracts), Cocoa (-10,000 contracts), and Wheat (-2,462 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.

 

Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme

  • OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range
  • Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range
  • Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength
Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-24-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,711,8630334,76111-374,6279139,86671
Gold530,09822183,81314-211,9478228,13437
Silver146,4561314,10326-23,297889,1943
Copper186,43317-19,6332819,2887334527
Palladium7,9197-3,47223,80098-32825
Platinum65,824321,4855-6,683965,19834
Natural Gas1,107,4966-111,5704563,8475147,72393
Brent183,62927-39,2894537,488561,80134
Heating Oil349,618316,45552-32,4343725,97988
Soybeans729,90028188,36872-159,04734-29,32121
Corn1,544,88529427,84885-372,52219-55,32611
Coffee211,266537,07271-38,484341,4124
Sugar847,42011209,48780-255,4502045,96365
Wheat326,607826,34453-24,33925-2,005100

 

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 427,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -45,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 473,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.542.59.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.866.712.7
– Net Position:427,848-372,522-55,326
– Gross Longs:563,850657,258140,433
– Gross Shorts:136,0021,029,780195,759
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.718.911.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.710.1-2.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 209,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.044.910.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.375.05.3
– Net Position:209,487-255,45045,963
– Gross Longs:262,661380,52390,969
– Gross Shorts:53,174635,97345,006
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.719.764.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.28.8-19.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 37,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.054.13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.572.33.2
– Net Position:37,072-38,4841,412
– Gross Longs:46,580114,2088,167
– Gross Shorts:9,508152,6926,755
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.934.34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.412.9-33.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 188,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.447.36.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.569.110.8
– Net Position:188,368-159,047-29,321
– Gross Longs:236,164345,07649,551
– Gross Shorts:47,796504,12378,872
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.634.321.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.03.3-2.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 79,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.647.59.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.374.04.5
– Net Position:79,496-98,69119,195
– Gross Longs:106,705177,21335,857
– Gross Shorts:27,209275,90416,662
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.636.285.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.012.2-6.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.546.513.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.776.66.2
– Net Position:81,907-108,38826,481
– Gross Longs:102,564167,41448,827
– Gross Shorts:20,657275,80222,346
– Long to Short Ratio:5.0 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.126.670.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.120.7-27.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,747 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.741.311.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.148.811.7
– Net Position:22,747-22,153-594
– Gross Longs:99,928122,35734,015
– Gross Shorts:77,181144,51034,609
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.983.079.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.529.027.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.341.710.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.642.313.3
– Net Position:7,358-1,239-6,119
– Gross Longs:55,55581,80519,958
– Gross Shorts:48,19783,04426,077
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.892.064.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.440.7-5.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 72,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.536.78.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.077.53.2
– Net Position:72,520-83,53711,017
– Gross Longs:86,94775,10617,532
– Gross Shorts:14,427158,6436,515
– Long to Short Ratio:6.0 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.929.282.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.87.7-15.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,583 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.944.55.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.049.04.0
– Net Position:8,583-13,5404,957
– Gross Longs:89,159132,42416,784
– Gross Shorts:80,576145,96411,827
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.072.746.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.032.2-25.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.235.410.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.142.910.9
– Net Position:26,344-24,339-2,005
– Gross Longs:118,170115,72233,634
– Gross Shorts:91,826140,06135,639
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.325.1100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-4.43.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities
24 May

The impact of Indonesia’s ban on palm oil exports reverberated across the globe

By Steffi Hamann, University of Guelph 

– Amid an ongoing global food price crisis, vegetable oils are registering record-breaking highs. According to data compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the price for edible oils rose to almost 250 per cent of standard price levels.

Over the past two years, labour restrictions, climate change and violent conflict have contributed to this latest oil crisis. As the COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly across six continents, lockdowns resulted in work restrictions, affecting production sites and processing facilities in strategic locations such as Indonesia and Malaysia. These two countries are the top producers of palm oil, accounting for approximately 40 per cent of the vegetable oil market.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index depicts monthly fluctuations in the trading prices of common edible oils compared to the 2014-16 standard reference period.
(FAO, adapted by the author)

The other major commodities in this sector — soybean oil, canola oil and sunflower oil — fared even worse. A combination of heatwaves and droughts wiped out millions of tonnes in South America’s soybean harvest and decimated the canola harvest in Canada, which fell to a nine-year low.

In a catastrophic turn of events in Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused the price of sunflower oil to soar. When shipments of the important export crop came to a halt due to conflict-induced logistical bottlenecks in the supply chain, the market reacted instantly: futures contracts for sunflower oil suddenly swelled to US$2,361 from the previous year’s US$1,404 per tonne.

Given the market disruptions, commodity traders turned their attention back to palm oil, the cheapest and most abundant vegetable oil. Oil palm plantations yield an average of approximately three tonnes of oil per hectare each year, while other oil-producing crops generate less than one tonne of crude oil per hectare.

As the leading producer, Indonesia accounts for almost two-thirds of global palm oil exports. So, when Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced an unprecedented ban on palm oil exports in late April, he sent a shock wave across agri-food markets. What moved him to take such a radical step?

Soaring domestic demand, rising political pressure

When the price of vegetable oils began to rise steeply, the Indonesian government scrambled to find effective domestic measures that would protect consumers. Policy-makers initially decreed a price cap on palm oil and imposed a limit of two litres per customer as a rationing measure.

They later increased the levy on palm oil exports and offered direct cash transfers to low-income citizens to subsidize purchases of the staple food. None of their strategies solved the problem.

For palm oil producers, it is much more lucrative to sell their stock abroad instead of to the Indonesian market. The small group of businesses that control the country’s palm oil sector benefited financially from the high international prices for edible oils. By allocating more and more of their oil to the export market, they created a bottleneck in the domestic supply chain.

Public discontent grew in light of the administration’s inability to stabilize prices, unleashing a wave of protests in mid-April. The pressure escalated towards the end of the month. Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim celebration that marks the end of the month-long fasting during Ramadan, took place in the beginning of May this year.

Preparations for the festivities caused an upsurge in the demand of cooking oil in Indonesia. For the first time in two years of COVID-19 restrictions, people were hosting extravagant feasts. It was within this context that the Indonesian government ultimately decided to ban the export of crude and refined palm oil.

Implications around the world

Although the export ban temporarily quieted domestic critics, the rest of the world was bewildered by the new trade policy. Immediate repercussions were felt most strongly in populous nations that rely on the import of vegetable oils for their cooking needs, like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt.

While North American and European consumers rarely use palm oil in their frying pans, they encounter refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil on a daily basis. It is a versatile ingredient used in processed foods and consumer goods including shower gel, dish soap, lipstick, cookies, instant noodles and packaged bread.

These, and other household goods, will likely be affected by the global vegetable oil crunch, but the impacts tend to be most dire for the world’s poorest regions.

From previous market disruptions, we know that rising food prices fuel harmful behaviours, ranging from panic purchases and commodity speculation, to an increased appetite for land acquisitions in the agri-food sector. This greatly affects low-income countries whose economies rely chiefly on agriculture and the export of primary goods. The majority of these nations are located in sub-Saharan Africa and South America.

Avoiding a spiral of adverse effects will require policy measures designed to keep excessive speculation in check. Enhancing transparency in the global food market requires prioritizing the needs of farmers and consumers rather than those who seek to profit financially from the vegetable oil price hikes.

The end of the Indonesian palm oil ban is an important first step to return the situation to normal. Three weeks after stopping exports, President Widodo has just reversed his decision in response to mounting pressures from palm oil producers. While this move may lead to new protests on the streets of Jakarta, it is good news for international markets in a tumultuous time.The Conversation

About the Author:

Steffi Hamann, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Development Studies, University of Guelph

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities
22 May

COT Futures Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mixed

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soft Commodities market speculator bets were mixed this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while six markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Sugar (9,445 contracts) and Soybeans (9,039 contracts) with Wheat (7,120 contracts), Coffee (5,932 contracts) and Corn (2,835 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-10,832 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-8,595 contracts) with Live Cattle (-4,773 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,295 contracts), Cotton (-2,443 contracts) and Cocoa (-2,463 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,730,6650325,6377-363,8699538,23269
Gold555,75630175,36033-206,8796531,51948
Silver144,5341116,11438-24,841758,7270
Copper189,48319-24,4082523,059751,34933
Palladium9,11413-3,21533,62197-40620
Platinum65,926322,2037-6,697964,49425
Natural Gas1,118,4178-115,0124464,3405150,672100
Brent176,86121-34,8675332,127472,74046
Heating Oil349,618316,45552-32,4343725,97988
Soybeans709,14424183,64773-156,93733-26,71026
Corn1,548,43829473,74391-424,75611-48,98715
Coffee206,106038,48772-40,949322,46213
Sugar825,2816196,63077-245,3742248,74468
Wheat326,651828,80657-26,02023-2,78698

 

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 473,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 470,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.142.29.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.569.612.4
– Net Position:473,743-424,756-48,987
– Gross Longs:589,352653,039143,508
– Gross Shorts:115,6091,077,795192,495
– Long to Short Ratio:5.1 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.611.414.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.7-0.18.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 196,630 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.645.911.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.875.65.5
– Net Position:196,630-245,37448,744
– Gross Longs:252,752378,42294,457
– Gross Shorts:56,122623,79645,713
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.021.668.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.7-1.0-3.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 38,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.054.04.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.373.92.9
– Net Position:38,487-40,9492,462
– Gross Longs:49,501111,3978,495
– Gross Shorts:11,014152,3466,033
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.132.112.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.67.1-21.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 183,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 174,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.747.87.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.869.910.8
– Net Position:183,647-156,937-26,710
– Gross Longs:231,911338,71849,750
– Gross Shorts:48,264495,65576,460
– Long to Short Ratio:4.8 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.633.025.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.33.72.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 96,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.146.110.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.277.74.9
– Net Position:96,301-117,72421,423
– Gross Longs:115,709171,88039,590
– Gross Shorts:19,408289,60418,167
– Long to Short Ratio:6.0 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.523.893.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-7.121.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,832 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.647.313.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.475.26.3
– Net Position:73,300-100,72927,429
– Gross Longs:103,499171,14450,082
– Gross Shorts:30,199271,87322,653
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.330.675.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.127.7-14.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.639.210.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.049.712.0
– Net Position:35,030-31,417-3,613
– Gross Longs:107,168117,90332,549
– Gross Shorts:72,138149,32036,162
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.770.869.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.212.416.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.939.910.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.141.213.0
– Net Position:7,765-2,647-5,118
– Gross Longs:58,84781,20321,361
– Gross Shorts:51,08283,85026,479
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.290.370.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-41.142.78.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 79,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.134.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.079.43.5
– Net Position:79,316-90,87211,556
– Gross Longs:91,52570,06518,559
– Gross Shorts:12,209160,9377,003
– Long to Short Ratio:7.5 to 10.4 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.224.985.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.24.0-12.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.944.55.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.552.64.0
– Net Position:18,583-23,6685,085
– Gross Longs:87,225129,74016,687
– Gross Shorts:68,642153,40811,602
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.862.947.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.719.0-14.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 28,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.236.810.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.444.811.3
– Net Position:28,806-26,020-2,786
– Gross Longs:121,593120,34133,993
– Gross Shorts:92,787146,36136,779
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.522.798.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.5-15.29.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities
15 May
coffee_beans

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soft commodities speculator bets cooled off this week with nine out of the eleven markets we cover showing a decrease in their positioning. Soft commodities markets have been red hot this year with the war in Ukraine causing food disruptions, general production problems, food protectionism and, of course, with inflation rising throughout the world.

Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were just Soybean Oil (3,305 contracts) and Wheat (1,674 contracts).

Meanwhile, the soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets on the week were Corn (-30,957 contracts), Sugar (-14,407 contracts), Coffee (-8,142 contracts), Soybeans (-15,794 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,429 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,233 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,671 contracts), Cotton (-1,674 contracts) and Cocoa (-15,513 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,736,5940310,8032-354,4799843,67677
Gold571,44734193,31540-227,7565734,44157
Silver142,752919,08241-30,5196911,4379
Copper184,50215-22,6262619,249733,37745
Palladium8,83211-3,24533,43496-18933
Platinum66,064321,3635-5,373984,01018
Natural Gas1,108,4516-112,5294564,0065148,523100
Brent173,91119-31,2155930,5624465318
Heating Oil349,618316,45552-32,4343725,97988
Soybeans694,45420174,60872-147,69833-26,91026
Corn1,510,78323470,90890-415,34513-55,56311
Coffee212,659532,55569-33,559371,0040
Sugar797,4530187,18575-220,6112633,42649
Wheat308,326021,68648-17,77934-3,90792

 

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 470,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 501,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.942.78.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.870.212.6
– Net Position:470,908-415,345-55,563
– Gross Longs:573,327644,830134,903
– Gross Shorts:102,4191,060,175190,466
– Long to Short Ratio:5.6 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.212.811.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.41.31.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 187,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.545.810.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.073.56.6
– Net Position:187,185-220,61133,426
– Gross Longs:251,330365,26386,129
– Gross Shorts:64,145585,87452,703
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.126.349.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-3.4-9.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.856.13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.571.93.1
– Net Position:32,555-33,5591,004
– Gross Longs:50,564119,3997,690
– Gross Shorts:18,009152,9586,686
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.236.50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.97.3-20.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 174,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.448.27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.369.511.0
– Net Position:174,608-147,698-26,910
– Gross Longs:225,260334,79249,376
– Gross Shorts:50,652482,49076,286
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.933.125.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.37.81.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.045.89.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.877.95.0
– Net Position:100,596-118,83118,235
– Gross Longs:118,463169,76136,820
– Gross Shorts:17,867288,59218,585
– Long to Short Ratio:6.6 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.621.881.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-8.610.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.747.112.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.477.15.9
– Net Position:84,132-108,05923,927
– Gross Longs:110,648169,58345,065
– Gross Shorts:26,516277,64221,138
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.326.857.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.022.2-25.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.038.110.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.149.712.1
– Net Position:39,803-35,783-4,020
– Gross Longs:111,188117,50933,291
– Gross Shorts:71,385153,29237,311
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.566.767.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.78.422.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.738.010.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.143.012.8
– Net Position:16,360-10,817-5,543
– Gross Longs:66,48382,35322,102
– Gross Shorts:50,12393,17027,645
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.680.767.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.140.413.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.833.88.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.379.63.1
– Net Position:81,759-92,60310,844
– Gross Longs:94,57968,25117,191
– Gross Shorts:12,820160,8546,347
– Long to Short Ratio:7.4 to 10.4 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.823.981.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.52.7-14.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.044.16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.553.64.0
– Net Position:21,046-26,7705,724
– Gross Longs:87,140124,21617,042
– Gross Shorts:66,094150,98611,318
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.359.953.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.321.1-30.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.239.19.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.144.910.9
– Net Position:21,686-17,779-3,907
– Gross Longs:111,546120,63129,835
– Gross Shorts:89,860138,41033,742
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.334.492.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.4-11.91.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities
07 May

COT Futures: This Week’s Soft Commodities Markets Charts

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

COT_Commodities_OI

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (4,240 contracts), Cotton (1,688 contracts) and Cocoa (11,905 contracts) while lower bets were seen in Sugar (-20,957 contracts), Coffee (-1,140 contracts), Soybeans (-13,404 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,667 contracts), Soybean Meal (-16,734 contracts), Live Cattle (-14,313 contracts), Lean Hogs (-10,305 contracts) and Wheat (-1,638 contracts).

 

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-03-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,751,5642321,7016-366,2139444,51278
Gold560,44131199,16842-231,8525532,68457
Silver137,692528,06850-39,3176011,2498
Copper185,25516-15,6233110,080665,54357
Palladium7,6386-2,75262,4559029761
Platinum66,54533-1,5411-3,6671005,20835
Natural Gas1,138,31912-117,7064372,8615444,84592
Brent168,12814-27,3186526,014371,30427
Heating Oil349,618316,45552-32,4343725,97988
Soybeans700,85622190,40277-165,35327-25,04929
Corn1,513,88023501,86594-451,2108-50,65514
Coffee206,337140,69777-43,007282,3105
Sugar818,6271201,59278-236,3942334,80251
Wheat319,233020,01260-14,22530-5,78782

 

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 501,865 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 497,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.042.59.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.872.312.6
– Net Position:501,865-451,210-50,655
– Gross Longs:589,856642,906140,438
– Gross Shorts:87,9911,094,116191,093
– Long to Short Ratio:6.7 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.17.713.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.22.8-1.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 201,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 222,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.444.810.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.773.76.1
– Net Position:201,592-236,39434,802
– Gross Longs:264,899366,58485,022
– Gross Shorts:63,307602,97850,220
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.023.350.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.4-8.0-4.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.654.14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.974.93.3
– Net Position:40,697-43,0072,310
– Gross Longs:52,804111,6139,017
– Gross Shorts:12,107154,6206,707
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.727.65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.92.3-13.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 190,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 203,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.246.57.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.070.110.9
– Net Position:190,402-165,353-25,049
– Gross Longs:239,355325,74651,469
– Gross Shorts:48,953491,09976,518
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.427.128.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.06.7-0.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 97,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.146.69.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.277.45.9
– Net Position:97,291-111,26713,976
– Gross Longs:116,132168,59035,309
– Gross Shorts:18,841279,85721,333
– Long to Short Ratio:6.2 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.324.365.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.50.1-18.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 99,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.746.112.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.678.76.5
– Net Position:99,561-119,71420,153
– Gross Longs:119,912168,90144,077
– Gross Shorts:20,351288,61523,924
– Long to Short Ratio:5.9 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.920.738.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.319.4-41.3

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 47,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.838.59.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.751.911.5
– Net Position:47,036-41,382-5,654
– Gross Longs:114,213119,48429,911
– Gross Shorts:67,177160,86635,565
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.264.262.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.3-4.512.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.137.210.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.245.112.1
– Net Position:22,031-17,357-4,674
– Gross Longs:71,11082,38822,152
– Gross Shorts:49,07999,74526,826
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.773.072.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.124.218.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.234.09.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.880.43.3
– Net Position:83,433-95,90812,475
– Gross Longs:95,32070,08219,238
– Gross Shorts:11,887165,9906,763
– Long to Short Ratio:8.0 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.821.991.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.53.0-7.4

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.542.26.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.259.23.5
– Net Position:36,559-43,2776,718
– Gross Longs:85,562107,81515,602
– Gross Shorts:49,003151,0928,884
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.543.863.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.2-2.7-26.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 20,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.938.88.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.643.310.4
– Net Position:20,012-14,225-5,787
– Gross Longs:111,438124,00627,445
– Gross Shorts:91,426138,23133,232
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.030.382.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.0-7.9-17.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities
05 May

Allowing E15 fuel year-round won’t increase sales very much, but it’s a symbolic victory for corn ethanol advocates

By Aaron Smith, University of California, Davis 

As part of efforts to dampen high gasoline prices, the Biden administration is temporarily allowing gas stations to sell a special fuel blend called E15, containing 15% ethanol, year-round. Under the Clean Air Act, E15 cannot be sold in summer because it evaporates more readily in warm weather and can worsen air pollution. Aaron Smith, professor of agricultural economics at the University of California, Davis, explains how E15 differs from the E10 that is blended into most gasoline sold nationwide, and the general environmental impacts of corn-based ethanol.

What is E15 and where is it used?

Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol or grain alcohol, has long been a potential alternative to gasoline. Henry Ford advocated for it in the 1920s, but it wasn’t used much until the early 2000s because it was too expensive. More than 93% of the ethanol currently made in the U.S. comes from corn.

In 2007, amid concerns about high gas prices, energy security and climate change, Congress passed a law creating a Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires transportation fuels sold in the U.S. each year to contain certain quantities of biofuels, like ethanol and biodiesel. Under this policy, more than 95% of all gasoline sold in the United States is E10 – a blend of 90% gasoline and 10% ethanol.

E15 contains 15% ethanol and 85% gasoline. It is currently available in about 2,300 of the 145,000 gas stations in the United States, mainly in Midwestern states where most corn is grown and processed into ethanol.

E15 is more corrosive than E10, so some drivers worry that it will damage their engines. The Environmental Protection Agency has approved E15 for use in any light-duty vehicle of model year 2001 or newer, and many carmakers have approved it for use in their cars in the past decade.

Nonetheless, some automakers recommend against using E15. It is not approved for use in motorcycles, heavy-duty vehicles such as buses and delivery trucks, boats, or equipment such as chainsaws or lawnmowers.

Advocates call biofuels an important asset for curbing climate change, but a 2022 study found that corn-based ethanol is significantly more carbon-intensive than regular gasoline.

Why were E15 sales barred in summer?

The prohibition on selling E15 in summer stemmed from the EPA’s efforts to reduce smog, which can cause respiratory problems in people who breathe it. Ironically, E15 has very similar smog-causing potential to the E10 it would replace, but a set of arcane rules from the 1970s has banned E15 while allowing E10.

One source of smog is evaporating gasoline, and evaporation rates are highest in the heat of summer. To reduce summer evaporative emissions, the EPA sets seasonal limits for gasoline’s Reid vapor pressure, a measure of its evaporation potential. This is why most of the country uses different gasoline in the summer than the rest of the year.

The EPA requires summer gasoline to have an RVP less than 9 pounds per square inch. Regular summer gasoline without ethanol has an RVP of 9, but summer E10 and E15 both have RVPs around 10. This would seem to preclude both E10 and E15. However, in 1978, during a previous energy crisis, Congress issued an allowance specifically for E10 to have an RVP of 10. That’s why E10 gasoline can be sold year-round, even though its smog-forming potential is no better than E15.

Some regions require even lower Reid vapor pressure, including areas with severe ozone pollution that are required to use reformulated gasoline – fuel that is specially formulated to burn more cleanly than conventional gasoline, with fewer smog-forming and toxic pollutants. The state of California has its own tight standards. Research shows that requiring clean gasoline dramatically improves air quality and health.

Will allowing more use of E15 measurably affect gas prices?

No, it won’t. The Biden administration stated in mid-April that E15 could save drivers 10 cents per gallon on average. That’s hardly enough to compensate for the fact that ethanol contains less energy than gasoline, so cars running on E15 get 1% to 2% fewer miles per gallon than those burning E10. However, very little of it is likely to be sold.

Less than 2% of gas stations across the U.S. offer E15, and demand isn’t high for it even in the non-summer months when it’s permitted. That reflects the challenges of using more ethanol in gasoline, including a lack of infrastructure and low consumer acceptance.

This is not the first time we’ve had summer E15. The Trump administration allowed it to be sold during the summer in 2019-2021, but gas stations sold very little of it. In 2021, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that in lifting the seasonal restriction, Trump’s EPA had overstepped its legal authority. The Biden administration believes it is on firmer legal footing because it is authorizing E15 under an emergency waiver due to a “fuel supply emergency” caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Will using more ethanol help to slow climate change?

In addition to promoting homegrown fuel, a major impetus for blending ethanol into gasoline was to mitigate climate change. Burning fossil fuels such as gasoline and diesel sends carbon into the atmosphere, where it remains for hundreds of years and traps heat, gradually increasing the Earth’s average temperature. Ethanol burns more completely than gasoline, so it offered the promise of reduced carbon emissions.

But the promise of climate benefits has not been realized. Producing ethanol requires growing crops, which disrupts carbon stored in the soil. U.S. farmers planted an average of 91 million acres of corn in the years 2007-2021, up from 78 million in 1990-2006. Forty percent of the corn they produce now goes into ethanol.

In a recently published study, my co-authors and I explored changes in cropland area due to the Renewable Fuel Standard. We found that producing additional corn for ethanol does not reduce carbon emissions once you account for changes in land use.

It also has serious effects on nutrient pollution in lakes and rivers, which comes from nitrogen fertilizer washing off of crop fields. Using more nitrogen fertilizer and converting more land to grow crops increases greenhouse gas emissions and water pollution. Based on the performance of corn ethanol in the U.S., we concluded that it will require profound advances in technology and policy for biofuels to deliver the environmental benefits that they were intended to produce.

As I see it, merely allowing summer E15 sales will have little effect because few will buy it voluntarily. However, ethanol advocates are pushing to expand the market.

Iowa lawmakers have already passed legislation requiring most gas stations in the state to sell E15, and Midwest governors are asking the Biden administration to allow its permanent sale year-round. Mandating more E15 use would benefit farmers by increasing demand for their crops, but it would be a net loss for the environment.The Conversation

About the Author:

Aaron Smith, Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

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