Opinions

Archive for Opinions – Page 60

Does hosting the Olympics, the World Cup or other major sports events really pay off?

After a long battle, Paris’s beloved bouquinistes will be staying put this summer. The decision, announced on 13 February by the French government, came after considerable public backlash to the police prefecture’s original plan to move part of the iconic Seine booksellers elsewhere for the inauguration of the Olympics Games on 26 July.

Meanwhile, less than six months away from the event, Parisians continue to grumble over a lack of consultations with locals, warnings of gridlocked traffic, closed metro stations, extensive video surveillance and other grievances. So for host countries, what was the point of the Olympics, again?

In academia, the debate about the potential positive and negative effects of large-scale sporting events is ongoing. Although these events are often associated with substantial economic losses, the long-term benefits are the main argument in favour of hosting them. These include the development of material and soft infrastructure such as hotels, restaurants or parks. Big games can also help put the host region on the map as an attractive place for sports and cultural events, and inspire a better entrepreneurial climate.

The pros and the cons of big sporting events?

The cost of these benefits, as the Parisians have realised, is steep. Host countries appear to suffer from increased tax burdens, low returns on public investments, high construction costs, and onerous running cost of facilities after the event. Communities can also be blighted by noise, pollution, and damage to the environment, while increased criminal activity and potential conflicts between locals and visitors can take a toll on their quality of life. As a result, in the recent past several major cities, including Rome and Hamburg, withdrew their bids to host the games.

A common feature of the economics of large-scale sporting events is that our expectations of them are more optimistic than what we make of them once they have taken place. Typically, expenditure tends to tip over the original budget, while the revenue-side indicators (such as the number of visitors) are rarely achieved.

Host regions typically have to jump through many hoops before they can begin to enjoy the benefits from large-scale sporting events such as the Olympics.
Peter Skitterians/Pixabay, CC BY

When analysing the effect of hosting large-scale sporting events on tourist visits, it is important to take into consideration both the positive and negative components of the overall effect. While positive effects may be associated with visitors, negative effects may arise when “regular” tourists refuse to visit the location due to the event. This might be because of overloaded infrastructure, sharp increases in accommodation costs, and inconveniences associated with overcrowding or raucous or/and violent visitors. On top of that, reports of poverty or crime in the global media can actually undermine the location’s attractiveness.

When big sporting events crowd out regular tourists

In an article published in the Journal of Sports Economics with Igor Drapkin and Ilya Zverev, I assess the effects of hosting large-scale sporting events, such as Winter and Summer Olympics plus FIFA World Cups, on international tourist visits. We utilise a comprehensive dataset on flow of tourists covering the world’s largest destination and origin countries between 1995 and 2019. As a first step, we built an econometric model that effectively predicts the flow of tourists between any pair of countries in our data. Subsequently we compared the predicted tourist inflow in a hypothetical scenario where no large-scale sporting event would have taken place with the actual figures. If the actual figures exceed the predicted ones, we consider the event to have a net positive impact. Otherwise, we consider that it had a “crowding out” effect on “regular” tourists. While conducting this analysis, we distinguished between short-term (i.e., focusing just on the year of the event) and mid-term (year of the event plus three subsequent years).

Our results show that the effects of large-scale sporting events vary a lot across host countries: The World Cup in Japan and South Korea 2002 and South Africa 2010 were associated with a distinct increase in tourist arrivals, whereas all other World Cups were either neutral or negative. Among the Summer Olympics, China in 2008 is the only case with a significant positive effect on tourist inflows. The effects of the other four events (Australia 2000, Greece 2004, Great Britain 2012, and Brazil 2016) were found to be negative in the short- and medium-term. As for the Winter Olympics, the only positive case is Russia in 2014. The remaining five events had a negative impact except the one-year neutral effect for Japan 1998.

Following large-scale sporting events, host countries are therefore typically less visited by tourists. Out of the 18 hosting countries studied, 11 saw tourist numbers decline over four years, and three did not experience a significant change.

The case for cautious optimism

Our research indicates that the positive effect of hosting large-scale sporting events on tourist inflows is, at best, moderate. While many tourists are attracted by FIFA World Cups and Olympic games, the crowding-out effect of “regular” tourists is strong and often underestimated. This implies that tourists visiting for an event like the Olympics typically dissuade those who would have come for other reasons. Thus, efforts to attract new visitors should be accompanied by efforts to retain the already existing ones.

Large-scale sporting events should be considered as part of a long-term policy for promoting a territory to tourists rather than a standalone solution. Revealingly, our results indicate that it is easier to get a net increase in tourist inflows in countries that are less frequent destinations for tourists – for example, those in Asia or Africa. By contrast, the United States and Europe, both of which are traditionally popular with tourists, have no single case of a net positive effect. Put differently, the large-scale sporting events in Asia and Africa helped promote their host countries as tourist destinations, making the case for the initial investment. In the US and Europe, however, those in the last few decades brought little return, at least in terms of tourist inflow.

About the Author:

Ivan Savin, Associate professor of quantitative analytics, research fellow at ICTA-UAB, ESCP Business School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

24 Feb

Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to 51-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro, Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (15,178 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (4,619 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (3,219 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-9,242 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-4,449 contracts), the British Pound (-4,160 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,909 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,899 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-2,826 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-456 contracts) and Bitcoin (-177 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to highest in just about a year

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent increase in the speculator’s positioning for the New Zealand Dollar. The large speculative New Zealand Dollar (NZD) currency positions gained this week by over +3,000 net contracts and have now climbed for six consecutive weeks. The NZD bets have also risen in nine out of the past twelve weeks, going from a total net position of -16,450 contracts on December 5th to a total of +6,626 contracts this week.

This improvement has taken the NZD to it’s most bullish level in the past fifty-one weeks, dating back to February 28th of 2023.

Helping the NZD speculator sentiment is the possibility that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may increase the bank’s interest rate at the next policy meeting. The RBNZ is on schedule to hold its next meeting on February 27th with the official cash rate residing at 5.5 percent. Investment services such as ANZ Bank and TD Bank are anticipating the RBNZ to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points because of high inflation. The New Zealand consumer price index (most recently at 4.7 percent for December) continues to be higher than the bank’s target range of between 1-3 percent annually. However, weak economic growth that unexpectedly contracted by -0.60 percent (annual) in the third quarter of 2023 may help to persuade the RBNZ to hold the rate steady.

The NZD exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the rise recently with a weekly close just below 0.6200 level. The NZDUSD hit a multi-year low of 0.5558 in October of 2022 and more recently hit a low of 0.5809 in October of 2023. Since then, the currency pair has been able to rise and break through the 0.6000 major resistance and bounce off the 200-day moving average. The currency has ridden an eight-day win-streak to rise into this week’s close near 0.6200.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (97 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (73 percent), Canadian Dollar (58 percent) and the Brazilian Real (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (6 percent) and the Australian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (21 percent) and the Swiss Franc (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (21.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (22.0 percent)
EuroFX (49.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (42.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (87.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (90.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (6.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (72.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (64.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (97.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (100.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (55.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (59.6 percent)
Bitcoin (34.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.5 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (22 percent) and the British Pound (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (5 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-43 percent), the EuroFX (-22 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.8 percent)
EuroFX (-21.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-28.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-43.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-36.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-45.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-33.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-19.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-7.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (4.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.5	18.8	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.4	29.2	7.8
– Net Position:	1,546	-3,126	1,580
– Gross Longs:	18,732	5,625	3,916
– Gross Shorts:	17,186	8,751	2,336
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	78.6	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-1.6	26.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 68,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	57.6	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	70.0	7.8
– Net Position:	68,016	-89,451	21,435
– Gross Longs:	213,194	416,183	77,957
– Gross Shorts:	145,178	505,634	56,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	55.7	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.7	25.2	-26.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	36.6	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	61.2	13.7
– Net Position:	46,312	-49,006	2,694
– Gross Longs:	87,602	72,901	30,014
– Gross Shorts:	41,290	121,907	27,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.9	18.2	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-14.6	1.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -120,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	65.2	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.2	24.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-120,778	125,854	-5,076
– Gross Longs:	53,862	199,061	41,618
– Gross Shorts:	174,640	73,207	46,694
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	94.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.4	49.6	-21.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	62.4	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	29.9	31.6
– Net Position:	-9,923	19,476	-9,553
– Gross Longs:	13,036	37,455	9,413
– Gross Shorts:	22,959	17,979	18,966
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	66.8	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	40.6	-51.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,482 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	55.9	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	55.1	18.8
– Net Position:	-863	1,345	-482
– Gross Longs:	37,108	88,205	29,192
– Gross Shorts:	37,971	86,860	29,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	52.3	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	2.0	-21.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -81,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	64.0	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.7	19.0	14.6
– Net Position:	-81,875	92,611	-10,736
– Gross Longs:	49,100	131,694	19,375
– Gross Shorts:	130,975	39,083	30,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	86.9	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.4	53.9	-55.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	35.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	54.1	8.3
– Net Position:	6,626	-7,799	1,173
– Gross Longs:	19,758	14,341	4,580
– Gross Shorts:	13,132	22,140	3,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	26.9	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-17.3	-10.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 95,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.6	40.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	79.9	1.1
– Net Position:	95,995	-101,330	5,335
– Gross Longs:	141,528	102,096	8,061
– Gross Shorts:	45,533	203,426	2,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	2.2	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-4.3	-1.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	38.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	70.5	1.9
– Net Position:	16,522	-18,453	1,931
– Gross Longs:	32,457	22,619	3,031
– Gross Shorts:	15,935	41,072	1,100
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	43.0	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	11.7	-6.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.9	7.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.1	2.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-2,098	1,202	896
– Gross Longs:	19,624	1,862	1,724
– Gross Shorts:	21,722	660	828
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	95.3	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	10.8	1.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

24 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Mexican Peso, GBP, Corn & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 4.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 95,995 contracts this week with a decline of -4,449 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

British Pound Sterling

The British Pound speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The British Pound speculator level is now at a 87.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 17.8 this week. The speculator position registered 46,312 net contracts this week with a weekly fall of -4,160 contracts in speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level resides at a 87.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -12.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 16,728 net contracts this week with a decrease of -3,641 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is at a 86.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -4.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,701 net contracts this week with a dip of -518 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brent Oil speculator level sits at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 10.9 this week.

The speculator position was -13,856 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,589 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -266,067 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,128 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.3 this week. The speculator position was -45,453 net contracts this week with a edge higher by 14 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybeans speculator level resides at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -160,288 net contracts this week with a small increase of 1,463 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.9 this week. The speculator position was -33,941 net contracts this week with a drop of -9,325 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

Finally, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 6.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -43.4 this week. The speculator position was -120,778 net contracts this week with a decrease of -9,242 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

23 Feb

Week Ahead: USDJPY timebomb triggered above 150?

By ForexTime

JPY worst performing G10 YTD

Japan CPI & US PCE in focus

Yen back on intervention watch

USDJPY bullish but RSI overbought

Key level of interest at 150.90

Our focus lands on the Japanese Yen which has been the worst-performing G10 currency against the US Dollar year-to-date.

The final trading week of February promises to be eventful due to key economic data, speeches by numerous Fed officials, and threat of a partial US government shutdown:

Tuesday, 27th February

JPY: Japan CPI

Wednesday, 28th February

EUR: Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
NZD: New Zealand rate decision
USD: Q4 GDP (2nd estimate), Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, New York Fed President John Williams speech

Thursday, 29th February

AUD: Australia retail sales
CAD: Canada GDP
EUR: Germany CPI, unemployment
JPY: Japan industrial production, retail sales
USD: US January PCE report, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speech

Friday, 1st March

CNH: China official PMI, Caixin manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone CPI, unemployment, PMI, Germany Manufacturing PMI
GBP: UK S&P Global/CPIS Manufacturing PMI
USD: US ISM manufacturing, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speeches
Deadline for avoiding partial US government shutdown

Yen weakness has been a major theme this quarter thanks to a dovish BoJ, with the recession in Japan fuelling uncertainty about likely timings for a policy pivot.

Note: Yen down more than 6% versus the USD year-to-date.

The Yen’s recent depreciation below 150 per dollar has sparked warnings from Japanese officials, ultimately fuelling market fears of possible intervention.

With the USDJPY venturing closer to multi-year highs just below 152, a major move could be brewing.

With all the above said, here are 3 factors that could influence the USDJPY:

Japan inflation data

Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to slow to 1.9% year on year in January from the 2.6% in January. The core measure which excludes fresh food is expected to cool 1.9% year on year, down from 2.3% in December.

Should expectations match reality, this will be the first time the core CPI has dipped below the BoJ’s 2% target since March 2022.

Traders are currently pricing in only a 29% probability that the BoJ will scrap negative rates by March, with the odds jumping to 78% by April.

A softer than expected inflation report may support the argument around the economy being too weak for rate hikes, weakening the Yen as a result.

Should the inflation report print above expectations, this could boost the Yen as expectations mount over the BoJ ending negative rates.

US January PCE report

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure is likely to influence rate cut expectations.

Traders are currently pricing in 79% probability of Fed rate cut by June, according to Fed fund futures.

The PCE core deflator is forecast to rise 0.4% month-over-month, from 0.2% in December while cooling 2.8% in January, down from 2.9% in the previous month.

Ultimately, more signs of cooling price pressures may boost bets around the Fed cutting interest rates down the road – hitting the dollar as a result.

If the PCE report prints above market forecasts, this could further dampen hopes for early rate cuts – pushing the USDJPY higher as a result.

Note: Looking beyond the PCE report and other key US data, it may be wise to keep an eye on the looming partial government shutdown.

The United States is facing another partial government shutdown deadline set to expire on 1st March. Should this become reality, it could impact the dollar and risk sentiment – reflecting on the USDJPY.

Technical forces

The USDJPY is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 70 – signalling that prices are overbought.

A solid weekly close above 150.90 may encourage an incline towards the 151.90 level.

Should bulls get cold feet below 150.90, this may trigger a selloff towards 149.70 and potentially lower.

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 78% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 149.18 – 151.95 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

22 Feb

Target Thursdays: NAS100 and CN50 reach targets, Nvidia to hit new record high!

By ForexTime

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

NAS100 bears snagged 638 index points
Nvidia investors to reap 14% reward
CN50 surges by 430 index points

1) NAS100 bears took advantage before Nvidia-fuelled rebound

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

As written in our Week Ahead article on Friday, February 16th:

“Should 18000 prove to be a tough nut to crack, this could encourage a decline back towards the 17500 higher low …”

What happened since TP was published?

That 18,000 psychological level was indeed a “tough nut to crack” this past Friday.

The tech-heavy NAS100 then fell from 17965.7, briefly broke below 17,500 to hit as low as 17,327.2, before rebounding.

How much in potential profits?

638 index points for traders who shorted (bet prices will move lower) this tech-heavy index from peak to trough since Friday.

The downward move ended as the NAS100 rebounded after Nvidia posted better-than-expected financial results.

2) Nvidia set to reward investors with 14% post-earnings boost

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

As written in our article titled “Nvidia earnings preview: Moment of truth…” on Wednesday, February 21st.

“Given how Nvidia shares ended Wednesday’s session around $675, this is equivalent to a rally towards fresh all-time highs …”

What happened since TP was published?

Nvidia, the US chipmaker whose GPUs are essential to the AI industry, reported better-than-expected earnings after US markets closed on Wednesday.

This sent the stock soaring by more than 14% in Thursday’s early trading session (before US markets officially open).

How much in potential profits?

Investors stand to gain 14% overnight

That’s if they had bought this stock yesterday (Wednesday) and hold on today, assuming the gains from the pre-market session carries over into today’s (Thursday) US market open.

Nvidia is then set to register a new all-time high today (Thursday)!

3) CN50 reaches 12,000 psychological level

When/where was Target Price (TP) published?

“CN50: Needs more spark post-rate cut” on Tuesday, February 20th.

The article cited the “psychologically-important round number level” of 12,000 as a potential resistance.

What happened since TP was published?

The CN50 index surged on Wednesday (day after this article was published) likely due to some market intervention in China.

After briefly breaking above that 12k mark, the psychologically-important level duly acted as a resistance level, as mentioned in the article.

How much in potential profits?

Traders who opened long positions (bet that prices will go up) on the CN50 index on Tuesday, would have watched this index climb by as much as 430 index points the next day.

At the time of writing on Thursday (Feb 22nd), the CN50 index is still holding on to most of Wednesday’s gains, and is just hovering below that 12k TP.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

21 Feb

This AI Co.’s Upside Potential Is Substantial, Analyst Says

Technical Analyst Clive Maund reviews Treatment.com AI Inc.’s charts to explain why he believes it is currently a Strong Buy.

Source: Clive Maund (2/16/24)

Treatment.com AI Inc. (TRUE:CSE; TREIF:OTCMKTS) is a company that should have a very bright future as it has been pioneering the development of an AI healthcare platform using AI and advanced machine learning technologies that has the potential to revolutionize healthcare due to the streamlining of healthcare provision and the massive cost savings across the industry that should result.

The growth potential of this industry is enormous, as is made clear when you consider that the AI healthcare market, which was valued at US$11 billion in 2021, is projected to grow to US$187 billion in 2030, and with Treatment.com AI having already developed its own platform it is centrally placed to be a part of this.

The fields in which AI is set to make a big contribution are Virtual Assistance and Chatbots, Diagnosis and Treatment Planning, Streamlining Administrative Tasks, and Predictive Analytics.

Treatment.com AI’s platform is powered by its proprietary Global Library of Medicine, which incorporates AI machine learning and has been trained by hundreds of physician experts across the globe.

The company is already in partnership with the Mayo Clinic and the University of Minnesota Medical School and is in discussion with another 52 organizations.

More details on all these developments are available in the company presentation.

We will now examine a range of charts to determine exactly what is happening with Treatment.com AI stock. These charts reveal clear technical patterns that enable us to see with almost pinpoint accuracy where the stock is in its lifecycle and, therefore, what we can expect to see unfold going forward.

The upside potential from the current historically low level is very substantial, especially in percentage terms.

We will start with the 2-year arithmetic chart, which makes brutally clear the severity of the bear market that followed from the peak at almost CA$63 towards the middle of 2021.

This savage bear market resulted in the stock losing well over 99% of its value from that peak. The value of this chart is not just that it clearly shows this bear market in its entirety, but it also shows how the rate of decline decelerated during the second half of 2022 before it settled into a long and very low base pattern that has continued from late 2022 all through 2023 and into this year.

Beyond observing these points, this chart is of little use technically because it squashes the base pattern so flat that we can’t see what is going on within it, but we can solve that problem by means of a log chart for the same timeframe, which we will now proceed to look at, but before leaving this chart to observe how upside volume has expanded quite dramatically since mid-October which has resulted in the Accumulation line shown at the bottom of it trending steeply higher — this is a clear indication of persistent accumulation of the stock presumably by those investors who believe that the company is set to do well and that its stock will, in consequence, enter a bullmarket. These are, therefore, very bullish indications.

Now, we will look at the 2-year log chart, which looks dramatically different from the arithmetic chart above for the same timeframe, which is due to the fact that the base pattern still in progress has formed at a very low level. This most useful chart makes it possible for us to see exactly what has been going on.

A Head-and-Shoulders pattern has built out whose Left Shoulder formed as far back as late 2022, so 14 months ago. The Right Shoulder of the pattern has been forming for several months now and is not yet complete, but with the price and its moving averages having converged in a most potent manner, we are believed to be fast approaching an upside breakout from this base pattern, especially as the Accumulation line is so strong.

We will now move on to review recent action in much more detail on a 10-month chart where we see that, embedded within the latter part of the Head-and-Shoulders bottom, is a fine, albeit lopsided, Cup & Handle base whose most distinguishing characteristic is high volume on the rally to complete the right side of the Cup part of it, which is exactly what we saw back in October.

These kinds of hybrid patterns, where the price chart has the characteristics of different base patterns simultaneously, are not uncommon, and happily, both the patterns we see on the Treatment.com AI chart are decidedly bullish. The Handle part of this Cup & Handle base, which started to form in mid-October, has been a remarkably narrow trading range, and the good news is that we can be reasonably confident of an upside breakout before much longer, thanks to the Accumulation line trending higher throughout, due to a preponderance of upside volume.

The conclusion is, with a breakout from the base pattern looking increasingly likely soon, the stock is rated a Strong Buy for all timeframes, and the upside potential from the current historically low level is very substantial, especially in percentage terms. The number of shares in issue is a reasonable 38.5 million.

Treatment.com AI closed at CA$0.52 on February 15, 2024.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Treatment.com AI Inc..
Author Certification and Compensation: [Clive Maund of clivemaund.com] is being compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, for writing this article. Maund received his UK Technical Analysts’ Diploma in 1989. The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content accurately reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the designated securities discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Opinions Stock Market News

21 Feb

Nvidia earnings preview: Moment of truth…

By ForexTime

Nvidia’s Q4 earnings in focus

US chipmaking giant up 40% YTD

High-stakes event could rock markets

Stock firmly bullish on D1/W1 timeframe

Key levels of interest at 663.17 & 752.04

Everybody is talking about Nvidia, and why not?

The poster child of the AI boom is set to announce its earnings after surpassing Alphabet last week as the third most valuable US company!

Given how the US chipmaking giant has been at the heart of the AI mania, the stakes are high with investors looking for extraordinary results that would justify the eye-popping stock gains.

Fun fact: Nvidia shares are up 40% year-to-date, adding to its 239% gain in 2023.

When will earnings be released:

Nvidia will report its 2023 fourth-quarter earnings after US markets close on Wednesday.

What are markets expecting?

The AI chip giant is expected to post earnings of $4.60 a share, and a rise in quarterly revenue to $20.4 from $6.1 billion a year ago – marking an increase of 234%!

Why is Nvidia’s earnings so important?

Much of the stock market rally last year was fuelled by expectations around AI and the potential impacts it could have on productivity amid its continual adoption. To put things into context, Nvidia’s AI chips are in hot demand, used for large language models including OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

The company’s earnings and forward guidance could serve as a major gauge for the AI mania while also confirming whether its valuations are justified.

How will Nvidia react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting a whooping 11% move, either Up or Down, for Nvidia stocks on Thursday post earnings.

Given how Nvidia shares are trading around $694.34 as of writing, this is equivalent a rally towards $770.74 or selloff to $617.94.

What does this mean for traders?

With a 1.7 trillion valuation, an 11% move in the price of its stock is almost $190 billion.

This is equivalent to the entire market cap of many large companies in the S&P 500, such as Intel Corp, Pfizer, and Nike. Essentially, extreme levels of volatility could be on the horizon.

Should Nvidia’s earnings satisfy investors’ lofty expectations along with the forward guidance, this could push the stock higher.

If Nvidia’s earnings disappoint in the slightest, this could trigger a heavy selloff.

How about the technicals?

Nvidia is in a weekly uptrend that started early November 2023 and has seen the stock price reach colossal heights.

It pushed through 3 weekly resistance levels that became support levels before stalling near a potential weekly resistance level at 752.04. The market structure clearly shows that a correction wave is currently in progress.

On the D1 chart, the W1 chart correction wave can be seen as a down trend. The price is approaching a weekly support level.

Although the D1 chart is in a confirmed down trend with a lower top and a lower bottom with the short cycle Stochastics Oscillator adding validation, both the 21 Simple Moving Average as well as the longer cycle Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Oscillator are still to the upside. This means caution should be exercised with tight risk management for any short opportunities at this time.

If the price, however, breaks through the weekly support level at 663.17, the downside might gather more momentum as buyers will tend to cover their positions, thus adding to the selling positions in the process.

If the weekly support level at 663.17 holds, the buyers might be encouraged to add to their longer-term positions and this might boost the potential upside momentum.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

18 Feb

FX Speculators push British Pound bullish bets to 25-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound Sterling & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (15,997 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (13,615 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (2,577 contracts), Canadian Dollar (2,254 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (463 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-27,306 contracts), the EuroFX (-9,315 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-7,163 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-447 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-314 contracts) and Bitcoin (-398 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

FX Speculators push British Pound bullish bets to 25-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the continued rise in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling.

Large speculative Sterling positions rose this week by almost +16,000 contracts and have gained in seven consecutive weeks. The Sterling speculative level has added a total of +36,380 contracts to the net position over these last seven weeks and has brought the net level from a total of +14,092 contracts on December 26th to this week’s currently standing of +50,472 contracts. This marks the most bullish position for the GBP speculators since August 22nd, a span of twenty-five weeks.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate (GBPUSD currency pair) against the US Dollar has been oscillating around the 1.2500 exchange level over the past week despite recent downbeat economic news. The UK economy has recently dipped into a technical recession with declining GDP in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2023. However, with inflation still high, traders and market watchers still see the Bank of England holding their interest rates at high levels which could provide support for the UK currency.

The Pound exchange continues to be in a weekly uptrend since a recent dive in October when prices were falling and dipped as low as 1.2050. The currency has also come down from the most recent high levels of the current uptrend (topping out around 1.2800) and has now settled in right above the 200-day moving average with this week’s close trading at 1.2609.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (64 percent), Brazilian Real (60 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (12 percent) and the Australian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (27 percent) and Bitcoin (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (26.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.1 percent)
EuroFX (42.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (46.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (90.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (29.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (16.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (64.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (91.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (59.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (60.0 percent)
Bitcoin (37.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.5 percent)

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (24 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The New Zealand Dollar (10 percent), the Mexican Peso (7 percent) and the Bitcoin (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-33 percent), the EuroFX (-28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.7 percent)
EuroFX (-28.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-34.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-18.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-6.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-33.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-19.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-31.9 percent)
Bitcoin (4.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.5	15.3	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.2	25.1	7.8
– Net Position:	2,002	-3,179	1,177
– Gross Longs:	21,096	4,916	3,675
– Gross Shorts:	19,094	8,095	2,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	73.2	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	-2.6	23.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 52,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	59.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	68.8	7.8
– Net Position:	52,838	-72,264	19,426
– Gross Longs:	210,848	437,266	76,997
– Gross Shorts:	158,010	509,530	57,571
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	62.2	10.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.4	31.9	-29.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.5	36.3	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	59.9	14.4
– Net Position:	50,472	-46,883	-3,589
– Gross Longs:	90,545	72,289	25,127
– Gross Shorts:	40,073	119,172	28,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.8	19.4	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.5	-16.6	-11.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -111,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	63.7	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	25.9	15.4
– Net Position:	-111,536	115,172	-3,636
– Gross Longs:	58,554	194,067	43,189
– Gross Shorts:	170,090	78,895	46,825
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	88.8	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.2	37.0	-16.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	58.4	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	31.0	34.8
– Net Position:	-6,014	15,080	-9,066
– Gross Longs:	12,689	32,148	10,071
– Gross Shorts:	18,703	17,068	19,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	60.2	36.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	23.8	-46.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	57.1	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	52.8	19.6
– Net Position:	-5,482	6,958	-1,476
– Gross Longs:	35,698	92,188	30,243
– Gross Shorts:	41,180	85,230	31,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	55.8	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-0.9	-31.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	64.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.4	18.8	15.2
– Net Position:	-78,976	90,985	-12,009
– Gross Longs:	47,405	128,465	18,320
– Gross Shorts:	126,381	37,480	30,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	85.7	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.0	45.8	-60.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	37.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	48.2	8.9
– Net Position:	3,407	-4,505	1,098
– Gross Longs:	19,632	15,668	4,819
– Gross Shorts:	16,225	20,173	3,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.3	34.4	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-4.7	-23.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	38.7	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	78.3	1.1
– Net Position:	100,444	-105,042	4,598
– Gross Longs:	147,176	102,632	7,407
– Gross Shorts:	46,732	207,674	2,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-7.5	8.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.6	35.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	73.7	2.2
– Net Position:	19,348	-21,321	1,973
– Gross Longs:	32,621	19,693	3,211
– Gross Shorts:	13,273	41,014	1,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	39.4	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	19.4	-3.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.3	6.1	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.1	1.5	3.9
– Net Position:	-1,921	1,152	769
– Gross Longs:	19,147	1,514	1,725
– Gross Shorts:	21,068	362	956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	94.0	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-2.1	-5.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

17 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Mexican Peso, Dow, Corn & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 13th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 6.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 100,444 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,615 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is now at a 93.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 1.3 this week. The speculator position registered 20,369 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -616 contracts in speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 90.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 24.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 50,472 net contracts this week with a jump of 15,997 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 586,542 net contracts this week with an increase by 30,099 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 89.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 17.1 this week.

The speculator position was 60,084 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,101 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -245,939 net contracts this week with a decline of -16,517 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.3 this week. The speculator position was -13,511 net contracts this week with a reduction of -2,509 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -45,467 net contracts this week with a drop of -11,545 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.9 this week. The speculator position was -161,751 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -934 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Copper

Finally, the Copper speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Copper speculator level is at a 2.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.2 this week. The speculator position was -32,697 net contracts this week with a drop of -18,987 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

13 Feb

Zero-Emission Hydrogen Vehicle Starts Trials in Wales

Source: Streetwise Reports (2/8/24)

First Hydrogen Corp. announced it has started month-long trials of its hydrogen fuel-cell-powered light commercial vehicle (FCEV) with a utility company in Wales.

First Hydrogen Corp. (FHYD:TSX; FHYDF:OTC; FIT:FSE) announced it has started month-long trials of its hydrogen fuel-cell-powered light commercial vehicle (FCEV) with a utility company in Wales.

Wales & West Utilities (WWU) operates 24 hours a day year-round to deliver gas network services serving more than 7.5 million customers across Wales and Southwest England. The company is particularly interested in hydrogen power and has put forward a proposal for a hydrogen pipeline.

The trials are taking place during winter, WWU’s busiest period for callouts, First Hydrogen noted.

“Typically, cold temperatures can reduce the range for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), affecting fleet operators’ reliability,” First Hydrogen said in a release. “The trials could also generate data to indicate the FCEV’s advantage over BEVs in lower temperatures depending on the weather over the next month.”

First Hydrogen plans to demonstrate that its FCEVs have a greater range, towing power, and refueling capability than those conventional electric vehicles.

“Our FCEV has clear benefits for utility businesses such as WWU, and we’re keen to generate performance data during the trial that will further demonstrate how our vehicles can help decarbonize similar fleets while meeting everyday operational demands,” said First Hydrogen Executive Director Steve Gill. “This trial also pilots a hydrogen-as-a-service model to show operators how practically we can support the transition to FCEV fleets.”

Fuel Cell Emits Water Vapor, Warm Air

The most abundant molecule in the universe, hydrogen has the “potential for near-zero greenhouse gas emissions,” the U.S. Department of Energy has said.

“Hydrogen generates electrical power in a fuel cell, emitting only water vapor and warm air,” the agency wrote. “It holds promise for growth in both the stationary and transportation energy sectors.”

The world will need more hydrogen technology and projects to meet a net-zero emission scenario by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund has rated First Hydrogen as a “Buy.”

“Faster action is required on creating demand for low-emission hydrogen and unlocking investment that can accelerate production scale-up and deployment of infrastructure,” the agency wrote.

It’s also a “uniquely versatile energy carrier,” according to a report by the Hydrogen Council. “It can be produced using different energy inputs and different production technologies. It can also be converted to different forms and distributed through different routes — from compressed gas hydrogen in pipelines through liquid hydrogen on ships, trains or trucks, to synthesized fuel routes.”

Global Market Insights estimates that the market size for hydrogen vehicles will grow by 28% annually from approximately US$2.8 billion in 2022 to US$33.2 billion in 2032. The report identified government initiatives to transition away from fossil fuels, as well as the general public’s desire for green transportation, as major drivers of the market.

Solution ‘Will Meet Our Fleet’s Future Needs’

WWU’s trials of the FCEV started with training for the drivers on the operation of the vehicle. Drivers performed maneuvers and even completed a callout to a customer’s residence.

“The drivers also practiced refueling the vehicle with green hydrogen, supplied by Protium Green Solutions, at Hyppo Hydrogen Solutions’ refueling unit,” First Hydrogen noted. “Both organizations have helped to develop a hydrogen ecosystem to support First Hydrogen’s trial with WWU.”

Newsletter writer Ron Struthers said there was support for hydrogen technology from governments across North America and Europe, which can be a major catalyst for the company.

Current light commercial electric vehicles on the market don’t offer full solutions for WWU and smaller businesses, WWU noted.

“Current battery electric vehicles do not provide the range, fast recharging time, payload capacity, and towing ability we require,” said WWU transport manager Stephen Offley. “They are also unsuitable for the installation of on-board power to power tools and equipment on site, which is critical for the operation of our network. Lack of suitable recharging infrastructure also poses a challenge. We see hydrogen-powered vehicles, such as First Hydrogen’s FCEV, as the potential zero-emission solution that will meet our fleet’s future needs.”

Hyppo Hydrogen Solutions Chief Executive Officer Chris Foxall said the trial is “demonstrating the readiness level of the hydrogen technology available today, but also how we’re leveraging so many companies to deliver a bespoke solution which can be scaled and repeated.”

Support From Governments Could Be Major Catalyst

Technical Analyst Clive Maund has rated First Hydrogen as a “Buy.”

“There has been some determined heavy buying in recent days, and with the 50-day moving average turning higher, it looks like it is starting to break out of the latest bull Flag shown into another upleg,” Maund wrote last July. He also commented that a short drop has made the company’s stock more accessible to new investors on the American market.

Newsletter writer Ron Struthers said there was support for hydrogen technology from governments across North America and Europe, which can be a major catalyst for the company.

“First Hydrogen is at the very beginning of its growth cycle,” Struthers said. “It will have revenues from selling FCEVs that have now reached acceptance, and I expect it will soon see major purchase orders.”

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

First Hydrogen Corp. (FHYD:TSX; FHYDF:OTC; FIT:FSE)

	Retail: 92.52%
	Management and Insiders: 7.47%
	Institutions: 0.01%

92.5%

7.5%

^*Share Structure as of 2/8/2024

Source: Refinitiv

The company’s investor presentation reports a number of catalysts, including the rollout of its first generation of vehicles expected in 2026 and its next generation of large vehicles expected in 2028.

Ownership and Share Structure

Refinitiv provided a breakdown of the company’s ownership and share structure, where management and insiders own approximately 7.47% of the company. According to Refinitiv, Head of Strategy Nicholas Wrigley owns 6.04% of the company with 3 million shares and Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Balraj S. Mann owns 1.43% of the company with 0.71 million shares.

Refinitiv reports one institutional investor, Fuchs & Associés Finance, with 0.01% with 0.01 million shares.

There are 70.92 million shares outstanding with 67.11 million free float traded shares. The company has a market cap of CA$113.5million and trades in a 52-week range of CA$1.40 and CA$4.20.

Important Disclosures:

First Hydrogen Corp. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of First Hydrogen Corp.
Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Energy Opinions

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Opinions – Page 60

The pros and the cons of big sporting events?

When big sporting events crowd out regular tourists

The case for cautious optimism

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro, Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to highest in just about a year

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

New Zealand Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

British Pound Sterling

DowJones Mini

Steel

Brent Oil

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

Soybean Meal

Soybeans

Soybean Oil

Japanese Yen

Our focus lands on the Japanese Yen which has been the worst-performing G10 currency against the US Dollar year-to-date.

Japan inflation data

US January PCE report

Note: Looking beyond the PCE report and other key US data, it may be wise to keep an eye on the looming partial government shutdown.

Technical forces

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 78% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 149.18 – 151.95 range over the next one-week period.

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

1) NAS100 bears took advantage before Nvidia-fuelled rebound

2) Nvidia set to reward investors with 14% post-earnings boost

Nvidia is then set to register a new all-time high today (Thursday)!

3) CN50 reaches 12,000 psychological level

Everybody is talking about Nvidia, and why not?

The poster child of the AI boom is set to announce its earnings after surpassing Alphabet last week as the third most valuable US company!

What does this mean for traders?

How about the technicals?

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound Sterling & Mexican Peso

FX Speculators push British Pound bullish bets to 25-week high

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend