Archive for Opinions – Page 42

India’s new mega-dam will roil lives downstream with wild swings in water flow every day

By Parag Jyoti Saikia, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 

“Hey Rupam, open the door. Take this fish,” a woman yelled from outside. I was sitting in the kitchen at my friend Rupam’s house in rural northeast India. It was the heart of monsoon season, and rain had been falling since morning. The woman must have been shouting because the noise of the rain on the tin roof muted everything else.

The aunty who lived next door stood outside with a large bowl of Boriala fish. Her husband had gone fishing on the Subansiri River, which flows next to the village, and he had fished all evening. “My husband cannot stay indoors in this weather,” she said in Assamese, the local language. “You can catch a lot of fish during this time.”

The monsoon season has long brought a bounty of fish from May to September for people living downstream.

The Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project, under construction, will be one of India’s largest hydropower dams.
Nayan J. Nath, CC BY

However, this is likely to change once the Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project, one of the largest hydropower dams in India, is completed upstream. Expected to be fully operational in 2026, the dam will change the natural flow of the river.

For most of the day, the dam will hold back water, letting only a small amount through, roughly equivalent to the region’s dry season. But for about four hours each night, it will release water to generate power, sending a raging river downstream almost like during monsoon season.

The dam will not only block the movement of fish, but also change the way people living downstream experience the river’s flows.

A man stands in a low river with a fishing net in his hand.
A fisher collects his net on a winter evening in the Subansiri. The river is calm and shallow in many places at that time of year, and people can walk across parts of the river.
Parag Saikia

In a 2010 report on the likely impact of the Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project on downstream populations, experts from three premier institutes of Assam — the central state of northeast India — identified several concerns for downstream communities, including flood and erosion risk, earthquake risk, the loss of water flow for fishing and groundwater recharge, and the survival of species including river dolphins.

Now, a decade later, as the dam is nearing completion, the central question remains: What will happen to people like Rupam’s neighbor, whose lives and livelihoods depend on the river?

In 2023, I lived in a village next to the Subansiri River. My dissertation research brought me there to study how this hydroelectric dam, under construction since 2005, is affecting communities downstream.

‘Small displacement’ by ‘benign’ dams

Northeast India has been the focus of hydropower dam construction since the beginning of this century. In order to secure the country’s energy future, Central Electricity Authority of India in 2001 identified the Brahmaputra River basin as having the highest hydropower potential – 63,328 megawatts. It proposed constructing a whopping 168 hydropower dams in the region.

This earned the region the nickname “India’s Future Powerhouse.” The Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project was the first project.

A view of a wide river with a small hand-made boat on the shore.
The Subansiri River in 2020.
Manisha Kakati, CC BY

The government sees the mega-hydro dam initiative as a win-win. It expects the dams to increase India’s energy security while also developing large infrastructure networks in one of India’s contentious borderland regions.

About 80% of the power for “India’s Future Powerhouse” is proposed to be generated in Arunachal Pradesh, the largest state of northeast India. China has repeatedly challenged India’s sovereignty over Arunachal since the latter’s independence in 1947.

Building dams in Arunachal Pradesh has another advantage: very low population density. It has about 17 people per square kilometer, and over 80% of Arunachal’s total territory is forest. That helped the government of India to argue that “there is relatively ‘small displacement’ by submergence as compared to that in other parts of the country and therefore these projects are benign.”

However, these projects are in no way benign to the people who live downstream.

The disruption to lives downstream

The flood plains of the Subansiri are home to people belonging to indigenous communities and lower castes of Hindu caste hierarchy. Mising – the largest indigenous community in the downstream region – call the river “Awanori,” which means “mother river.”

As part of my long-term ethnographic fieldwork, I observed how a range of livelihoods in the downstream region – fishing, agriculture, livestock grazing, recovering driftwood and transporting people by boat in remote areas – are all dependent on the 79-mile Subansiri River. I interviewed people who live there and attended community events to understand how the river plays a big role in everyday life.

People walk under banners and streamers at a celebration
The Golden Jubilee celebration of Takam Mising Porin Kebang, or All Mising Student Union, in 2023. A banner in Assamese reads: ‘We are a riverine civilization. Save the River, Save the Community. No Big Dam.’ The student union led protests over the dam’s downstream impacts.
Parag Saikia

Their reliance on the river has been based on natural, uncontrolled flows. Once the dam is completed, the river flows will be controlled by the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation.

Once in operation, the dam will block most of the river’s flow for 20 hours of the day, and then release that water – about 2,560 cubic meters per second – to power turbines that can meet peak electricity demand between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. every night. During the 20 nonpeak hours, the dam would release less than a tenth as much water.

What happens when the river flow changes?

When the dam was first proposed, there was no plan to release water during the nonpeak 20 hours. Activists argued that cutting the water’s flow would have made it impossible for any aquatic animal to survive downstream.

In 2017, the nonpeak-hour flow proposal was increased to a range of 225 to 250 cubic meters per second. That year, the National Green Tribunal, which resolves civil cases related to the environment, asked the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation to ensure a minimum level of water for the survival of Gangetic dolphin, India’s national aquatic animal. This judgment helped pave the way for restarting the construction after an eight-year delay. However, the tribunal did not address how people living downstream would be affected by the changes.

A landslide that temporarily blocked the dam’s spillway in 2023 during construction gave downstream communities a preview of extreme swings in water flows.

The calculation of minimum flow only for the survival of one aquatic mammal leaves out numerous ways the flows of the Subansiri matter to people and other animals.

The dam itself threatens the downstream existence of many fish varieties, including the golden mahseer. It will also alter the flow and sediment supply in the river, and the abrupt and powerful flow for four hours each night will have greater scouring capacity and risks eroding the riverbed and banks.

Traditionally, from October to April, the dry riverbed and sandbar islands have been used to grow early-maturing ahu rice and mustard before the monsoon flood waters arrive. People also graze their livestock in the islands and in the fields after crops are harvested.

Once the dam begins flooding the river for four hours a night, however, the riverbed and sand-bar islands will be largely unusable.

Fields cover a river bank during the dry season.
Dried stems of mustard lie on the ground after they have been harvested in a riverbank field downstream of the dam.
Parag Saikia

The rainy season when the river floods is the most productive time for fishing and collecting driftwood. However the dam will obstruct the movement of fish and trap wood behind the dam. So, even though there will be flood waters every day in the river, fishermen and wood collectors may not benefit from it.

For people like Rupam’s neighbor, the Subansiri River they know will change. They will have to navigate the river more cautiously, and every evening there will be monsoon-season water levels.

Will they be able to catch enough fish to share with their neighbors? Only time will tell.The Conversation

About the Author:

Parag Jyoti Saikia, Ph.D. Candidate in Socio-Cultural Anthropology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Oil and gas communities are a blind spot in America’s climate and economic policies

By Noah Kaufman, Columbia University 

On a recent visit to Rangely, a small town in northwest Colorado, my colleagues and I met with the administrators of a highly regarded community college to discuss the town’s economy. Leaving the scenic campus, we saw families driving into the mountains in off-road vehicles, a favorite activity for this outdoors-loving community. With a median household income above US$70,000 and a low cost of living, Rangely does not have the signs of a town in economic distress.

But an existential risk looms over Rangely. The town is here because of an oil boom during World War II. Today, the oil and gas industry contributes over half of the county’s economic output.

Rangely is not unique in the United States, which is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas. There are towns across the country that depend on the oil and gas industry for well-paying jobs and public revenues that fund their schools and other critical services.

A heavy dependence on any single industry is risky, and the oil industry is prone to booms and busts. But the economies of oil- and gas-dependent towns face a unique threat from global efforts to address the risks of climate change, which is fueled by the burning of oil and natural gas. Any serious strategy to halt global warming involves policies that will, over time, sharply reduce demand for all fossil fuels.

Early signs of this transformation can be seen in last year’s international agreement to “transition away from fossil fuels” and in the spread of electric vehicles that are starting to displace gasoline- and diesel-powered cars, trucks and buses.

As an economist who worked at the White House during the Obama administration and early Biden administration, I contributed to detailed strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to support communities in economic distress. But we did not have a plan to prepare oil and gas towns like Rangely for future economic challenges.

Why oil and gas towns are overlooked

Congress has prioritized support for small towns in recent legislation. However, oil- and gas-dependent towns were largely absent from these strategies for three primary reasons.

First is a perceived lack of urgency. The attention to a “just transition” as the nation moves away from fossil fuels has been disproportionately directed to coal-dependent communities. U.S. coal production has declined for 15 years, and a continued transition away from coal appears imminent and inevitable.

In contrast, U.S. production of oil and natural gas continues to grow. To be sure, some oil and gas communities are already struggling. But the widespread economic risks of a shift away from oil and gas may feel more like a problem for future decades.

Second, politicians downplay risks to oil and gas communities.

Most Republicans are not planning for a future decline in oil and gas production at all, and that includes many local politicians in oil and gas-dependent communities. For their part, most Democratic politicians prefer to focus on how climate action can be an engine of future economic growth. President Joe Biden likes to say, “When I think about climate change, I think jobs.”

He is not wrong to highlight the economic opportunities of climate solutions. But clean energy jobs rarely offer one-for-one replacements for the high-paying jobs in the oil and gas industries and the public revenues those industries bring local communities.

Third, economists’ policy toolbox is poorly suited to the challenges facing oil and gas communities.

Proposals to support local economic development commonly suggest targeting persistently distressed local economies with measures such as wage subsidies that have the potential to rapidly put more people to work.

A different prescription is needed for oil and gas communities, which are not generally struggling today. Over the 15-year period prior to the pandemic, the U.S. counties with oil and gas production experienced average annual GDP growth of 2.4% per year, compared with 1.9% nationwide.

Most oil and gas communities do not need economic stimulus policies that provide immediate relief. What they need are holistic economic development strategies that can cultivate new industries – building on their existing strengths – that will enable them to prosper into the future.

Solutions to help oil and gas towns prepare

Harvard economist Ricardo Hausmann compares the challenge of developing new economic capabilities to the game of Scrabble, where each additional letter enables the creation of more words. He cites the Finish economy as an example: It evolved from harvesting lumber to making tools that cut wood to producing automated cutting machines. From there, it evolved to sophisticated automated machines, including those used by global corporations such as telecommunications giant Nokia.

Such economic evolutions must be tailored to the characteristics of individual places. But the initial step is to recognize the problem and invest in solutions.

The Southern Ute Indian Tribe is doing this in southwest Colorado. It devotes oil and gas revenues to a Permanent Fund, which promotes fiscal sustainability by ensuring the tribe’s assets are aligned with its long-term financial goals, and a Growth Fund that diversifies the tribe’s revenue sources by investing in a range of businesses.

At the national level, a recent National Academies panel proposed the creation of a federally chartered corporation to help communities facing acute economic threats, including a future decline in oil and gas. This corporation could provide funding for displaced workers, critical public infrastructure and programs that ensure access to economic opportunities.

Colorado’s state Office of Just Transition has started to serve this role. Currently, it focuses only on the transition away from coal, with the goals of helping communities develop new economic opportunities and helping workers transition to new jobs. But its mission could be expanded in the future. In fact, Rangely is already receiving some support due to coal closures nearby.

No one-size-fits-all solution

Small, rural towns like Rangely illustrate how oil- and gas-reliant regions will need unique strategies tailored to the strengths and limitations of individual places. No off-the-shelf playbook exists.

Our group of researchers who visited Rangely are part of the Resilient Energy Economies initiative, which was created by universities, research institutes and philanthropic organizations to ensure that policymakers have the information they need to help fossil fuel-dependent communities successfully navigate the energy transition.

The best time to build a more resilient economy is before a crisis arrives. Anyone familiar with the Bible – or Broadway – knows the story of Joseph, whose dreams foresaw seven years of abundance for Egypt followed by seven years of famine. The pharaoh acted on Joseph’s vision, using the boom to prepare for the bust.

The United States is experiencing abundant oil and gas production today. Policymakers know risks are coming. But so far, the country is failing to prepare communities for harder days to come.The Conversation

About the Author:

Noah Kaufman, Senior Research Scholar in Climate Economics, Columbia University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The leading alternative to GDP is languishing over a technical disagreement – with grave potential consequences

By Eoin McLaughlin, University College Cork; Cristián Ducoing, Lund University, and Nicholas Hanley, University of Glasgow 

Many commentators believe that the world should move away from measuring economic success in terms of GDP growth. Yes, growth has brought prosperity and untold riches, but it has had significant negative side effects for the planet, including climate change, pollution and species extinction. None of these are captured in GDP data.

A whole “beyond GDP” movement has emerged over the last several decades, arguing that we should adopt a new way of measuring the wealth of nations. There is an ongoing debate about the best alternative, and many indicators have supporters, such as gross national happiness and the genuine progress indicator.

Yet one stands out as having by far the most buy-in from major international institutions. Known as “inclusive wealth”, it expands what we mean by wealth to include things like the natural environment and the abilities of the population. But it comes with a major problem. There’s no agreement around how it should be measured, so different institutions publish very different figures. In our view, this is a major obstacle to its mass adoption.

Inclusive wealth

Inclusive wealth ascribes a value to the assets a nation has produced that generate well-being, and measures how they are changing over time. These assets are:

  • Human capital: the knowledge and skills of the population.
  • Produced capital: goods and services produced by human endeavour.
  • Natural capital: the sum of all nature-based assets from which humans derive well-being, both now and in the future.
  • Social capital: the social networks that exist within a society.

There is strong theoretical support for the idea that this approach is a good way of measuring the sustainability of economic development. The key point is that when inclusive wealth per capita is going up, the future wellbeing of the population will go up, which is a necessary condition for sustainable development.

Foundational texts in support of inclusive wealth include Cambridge economist Partha Dasgupta’s 2001 book, Human Well-Being and the Environment, and his Harvard counterpart Martin Weitzman’s 2003 book, Income, Wealth and the Maximum Principle.

Dasgupta carried out a review for the UK government in 2021 into the economics of biodiversity, which similarly advocates for measuring national inclusive wealth instead of national income. There have also been recent calls by academics in this field to use inclusive wealth to help with the global biodiversity framework, a UN-led drive to be “living in harmony with nature” by 2050.

Inclusive wealth is measured by both the World Bank and UN Environment Programme (Unep). The World Bank has been measuring it since the late 1990s, and first published global estimates in a 2006 report called Where is the wealth of nations : measuring capital for the 21st century. It has since published three major updates to this report, including a major revision to the methodology, with another on the way. As for Unep, it began measuring inclusive wealth in 2012.

But there are still some kinks that need ironing out before this indicator can be of any practical use. In a new paper in Ecological Economics, we compare the approaches of the World Bank and Unep and find a big divergence in their calculations.

This may explain why inclusive wealth has yet to be adopted in any serious way by any major economies (all we’ve seen so far is some mentions in policy documents, like this one from New Zealand, and a recent decision by the Biden-Harris administration to start tracking the value of US natural resources at federal level using natural-capital accounting).

The discrepancies relate mainly to natural capital. Both Unep and the World Bank include similar if not identical data from the same components: non-renewables such as fossil fuels and minerals, and renewable elements such as fisheries and forest resources. The problem is that the institutions’ research teams value them differently.

The World Bank approach comes up with a present value for expected future earnings by discounting from what they will eventually be worth. In contrast, Unep uses fixed accounting prices, referred to as “shadow prices”, which are based on market prices today.

This leads to different conclusions about the trajectory of our natural capital, and thus, by implication, of the sustainability of current development paths. This is then exacerbated by another discrepancy around how the institutions measure changes in human capital.

Country differences

In our paper, we highlight the case of Qatar. According to Unep, it is one of the worst performers in terms of the change in inclusive wealth per capita, and so is judged unsustainable. Yet according to World Bank estimates, Qatar’s inclusive wealth per capita is growing positively.

Which is it? If development is unsustainable, some remedial action will be necessary, but if it is sustainable, no problem. How is the Qatari government to decide how to proceed?

We find similar conflicting signals for many other countries. According to the World Bank data, 20 countries’ inclusive wealth per capita is in decline (in other words, unsustainable), while the Unep data has 45 countries in decline. There is also little crossover in terms of these two lists.

As many as 34 of the countries that the World Bank says have growing inclusive wealth per capita are in decline according to Unep.

We agree strongly with the basic proposition that measuring inclusive wealth is key to ensuring the world develops sustainably. But there needs to be a more consistent approach for this signal to achieve enough credibility to be widely adopted. In our experience, the World Bank is much more transparent than Unep about the data in its calculations. Without full Unep transparency, it’s difficult to get to the root of the discrepancy.

Having said that, both broad approaches have merits, so it’s more a question of everyone committing to a single approach than arguing that one is better than the other. Unless this measurement problem can be resolved, it’s difficult to see countries taking inclusive wealth seriously. That could have serious consequences in the battle to make economic development sustainable.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Eoin McLaughlin, Professor in Economics, University College Cork; Cristián Ducoing, Senior lecturer at Sustainability transformations over time and space, Lund University, and Nicholas Hanley, Chair in Environmental and One Health Economics, University of Glasgow

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Currency Speculators sharply boost Canadian Dollar and Euro bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were decidedly higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (54,408 contracts) with the EuroFX (36,821 contracts), the British Pound (22,420 contracts), the Australian Dollar (19,726 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (5,453 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,283 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,102 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,322 contracts) and Bitcoin (77 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only currencies seeing declines in speculator bets were the Mexican Peso (-3,926 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-2,008 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boost Canadian Dollar and Euro bets

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the sharp paring of the bearish bets in the Canadian dollar and the pushing higher of the Euro position to the best level in over seven months. Both currencies are potentially benefiting from the speculator’s views the US dollar will weaken with the US Federal Reserve starting on an interest rate cutting cycle.

Large speculative Canadian dollar positions rose this week by the highest weekly amount on record with a huge jump by +54,408 contracts. This week’s record gain surpasses the previous record weekly increase of +36,590 contracts that took place on March 25th of 2014.

This was the fourth straight weekly increase in speculator bets and brings the current speculator standing to a total of -110,002 contracts. The speculator sentiment has now been in a continuous bearish position for fifty-six straight weeks and recently hit the most bearish level on record at a total of -196,263 contracts on July 30th. Since then, the position rebound has been strong and swift – taking a total of 86,251 net contracts off that bearish record level.

The CAD exchange rate has been on the rise as well with the CAD gaining for the past four consecutive weeks against the US dollar. Currently, the CAD is testing a multi-year down-trending line that started in May/June of 2021 versus the USD and is on pace for over a 2 percent gain over the month of August.

Meanwhile, the Euro bets got a boost by +36,821 contracts this week following last week’s +29,034 contract gain. Euro bets have risen in six out of the past eight weeks for a total eight-week increase of +102,357 contracts. The current speculator positioning is now at a total of +92,838 contracts – the most bullish position since January 16th and only nine weeks after the last bearish position (July 2nd).

The Euro exchange versus the US dollar had risen for three out of the past four weeks before declining this week by over 1 percent. The currency closed at 1.1059 on Friday and is currently trading right as it’s 200-week moving average. The Euro is on pace to increase by just under 2 percent in the month of August.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) led the currency markets this week. The British Pound (77 percent), the Australian Dollar (74 percent), Bitcoin (64 percent) and the EuroFX (60 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (25 percent) and the US Dollar Index (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (44.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (41.5 percent)
EuroFX (59.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (76.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (66.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (98.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (50.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (38.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (74.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (57.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (24.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (14.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (48.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (3.7 percent)
Bitcoin (63.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (62.7 percent)


Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (84 percent) and the Swiss Franc (50 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (29 percent), the Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-26 percent), British Pound (-19 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.9 percent)
EuroFX (29.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-19.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-7.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (84.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (97.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (50.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-23.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-25.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-34.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-40.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-76.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-15.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-8.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-7.8 percent)
Bitcoin (6.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-1.9 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,591 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.219.34.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.253.77.0
– Net Position:18,913-17,555-1,358
– Gross Longs:37,3779,8462,191
– Gross Shorts:18,46427,4013,549
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.463.60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.83.6-23.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 92,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 36,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.153.412.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.372.16.3
– Net Position:92,838-135,52242,684
– Gross Longs:218,381388,22688,749
– Gross Shorts:125,543523,74846,065
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.938.567.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.0-32.240.8

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 89,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.523.715.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.762.19.6
– Net Position:89,931-105,24515,314
– Gross Longs:152,16365,04241,570
– Gross Shorts:62,232170,28726,256
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.519.594.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.317.5-1.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.559.712.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.469.610.5
– Net Position:25,868-31,4505,582
– Gross Longs:84,305190,14138,943
– Gross Shorts:58,437221,59133,361
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:84.2-84.342.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.465.718.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.125.822.2
– Net Position:-24,61227,446-2,834
– Gross Longs:9,87345,16912,417
– Gross Shorts:34,48517,72315,251
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.344.364.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:50.3-55.741.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -110,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 54,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -164,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.577.310.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.741.49.5
– Net Position:-110,002106,1443,858
– Gross Longs:19,325228,77132,042
– Gross Shorts:129,327122,62728,184
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.759.842.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-12.926.4

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.842.815.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.139.39.5
– Net Position:-19,1597,22211,937
– Gross Longs:81,48687,62931,461
– Gross Shorts:100,64580,40719,524
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.524.186.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.524.1-13.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.758.37.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.546.56.6
– Net Position:-8,3167,659657
– Gross Longs:20,64837,9324,943
– Gross Shorts:28,96430,2734,286
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.969.667.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.136.115.5

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.254.52.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.171.73.4
– Net Position:30,720-29,312-1,408
– Gross Longs:66,66992,7934,303
– Gross Shorts:35,949122,1055,711
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.554.92.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.216.6-24.8

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -52,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.876.73.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.816.83.1
– Net Position:-52,96352,841122
– Gross Longs:13,03467,6732,832
– Gross Shorts:65,99714,8322,710
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 14.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.898.735.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.07.62.9

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 77 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:84.23.64.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:84.84.13.4
– Net Position:-166-132298
– Gross Longs:25,1051,0831,308
– Gross Shorts:25,2711,2151,010
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.961.319.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.2-8.0-2.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Speculator Extremes: Yen, Gold & Brazil Real lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 27th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)



Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 84.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 25,868 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,283 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Gold


The Gold speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 3.9 this week. The speculator position registered 294,445 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 3,192 contracts in speculator bets.


Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds


The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level resides at a 98.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 78.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -269,698 net contracts this week with a boost of 55,916 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 91.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -4.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 66,907 net contracts this week with an increase by 2,749 contracts in the speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level sits at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 34.8 this week.

The speculator position was 550,764 net contracts this week with a jump of 168,911 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.



This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real


The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 1.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -52,963 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,008 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 3.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.4 this week. The speculator position was -184,266 net contracts this week with a reduction by -5,373 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 3.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend f

or the speculator strength score was -6.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -37,075 net contracts this week with a change of 5,753 contracts in the speculator bets.


5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 4.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,656,257 net contracts this week with an improvement by 80,553 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


10-Year Note


Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 10.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.7 this week. The speculator position was -914,437 net contracts this week with a change of 123,675 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

What is mental imagery? Brain researchers explain the pictures in your mind and why they’re useful

By Lynne Gauthier, UMass Lowell and Jiabin Shen, UMass Lowell 

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to [email protected].


Why are some people able to visualize scenarios in their minds, with colors and details, and some people are not? – Luiza, age 14, Goiânia, Brazil


Imagine you are in a soccer match, and it’s tied. Each team will begin taking penalty kicks. The crowd is roaring, and whether or not your team wins the game depends on your ability to hit the shot. As you imagine this scene, are you able to picture the scenario with colors and details?

Scientists are hard at work trying to understand why some people can visualize these kinds of scenarios more easily than others can. Even the same person can be better or worse at picturing things in their mind at different times.

As neuroscientists in the fields of physical therapy and psychology, we think about the ways people use mental imagery. Here is what researchers do know so far.

The brain and mental imagery

Mental imagery is the ability to visualize things and scenarios in your mind, without actual physical input.

For example, when you think about your best friends, you may automatically picture their faces in your head without actually seeing them in front of you. When you daydream about an upcoming vacation, you may see yourself on the sunny beach.

People who dream about taking a penalty kick could visualize themselves like they are watching a video of it in their mind. They may even experience the smell of the turf or hear the sounds that fans would make.

Scientists believe your primary visual cortex, located in the back of your brain, is involved in internal visualization. This is the same part of the brain that processes visual information from the eyes and that lets you see the world around you.

An image of a brain. The primary and secondary visual cortices in the back of the brain are highlighted.
The visual cortex influences both visual and mental imagery.
Coxer via Wikimedia Commons

Another brain region, located in the very front of the brain, also contributes to mental imagery. This structure, called the prefrontal cortex, is in charge of executive functions – a group of high-level mental skills that allow you to concentrate, plan, organize and reason.

A diagram of the human brain with the prefrontal cortex highlighted at the front.
The prefrontal cortex controls executive functions.
The National Institute of Mental Health via Wikimedia Commons

Scientists have found such skills to be, at least to some extent, related to one’s mental imagery ability. If someone is good at holding and manipulating large amounts of information in mind, this person can play with things like numbers or images in their mind on the go.

Experiencing and remembering

Most of the same brain areas are active both while you’re actually experiencing an event and also when you’re visualizing it from a memory in your head. For example, when you behold the beauty of the Grand Canyon, your brain creates a memory of the image. But that memory is not simply stored in a single place in the brain. It’s created when thousands of brain cells across different parts of the brain fire together. Later, when a sound, smell or image triggers the memory, this network of brain cells fires together again, and you may picture the Grand Canyon in your head as clearly as if it were in front of you.

Benefits of mental imagery

The ability to mentally visualize can be helpful.

Notice the look of concentration on a gymnast’s face before competition. The athlete is likely visualizing themselves executing a perfect rings routine in their mind. This visualization activates the same brain regions as when they physically perform on the rings, building their confidence and priming their brain for better success.

Athletes can use visualization to help them acquire skills more quickly and with less wear and tear on their bodies. Engineers and mechanics can use visualization to help them fix or design things.

Mental visualization can also help people relearn how to move their bodies after a brain injury. However, with additional practice, those who do not use visualization will eventually catch up.

Nature-nurture interactions

All is not lost if you have difficulty visualizing. It is possible that the ability to visualize in your mind is a combined effect of both how your individual brain works and your life experiences.

For example, taxi drivers in London need to navigate very complicated streets and, scientists found, experience changes to their brain structures over the course of their careers. In particular, they develop larger hippocampuses, a brain structure related to memory. Scientists believe that the training the taxi drivers went through – having to visualize a map of complex streets across London in daily driving – made them better at mental imagery via changes in their hippocampus.

And watching someone else do a physical action activates the same brain areas as creating your own internal mental imagery. If you want to be able to do something, watching a video of someone else doing it can be just as helpful as visualizing yourself doing it in your head. So even if you struggle with mental visualization, there are still ways to reap its benefits.


Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to [email protected]. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Lynne Gauthier, Associate Professor of Physical Therapy and Kinesiology, UMass Lowell and Jiabin Shen, Assistant Professor of Psychology, UMass Lowell

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

China’s Naval Expansion: Why Defense Stocks Like NOC & LMT Are Poised for Growth

By The Ino.com Team

In the first half of 2024, China’s shipbuilding industry secured nearly 75% of new global orders, demonstrating the nation’s expanding manufacturing power. Ship completions surged by 18.4% year-over-year to 25.02 million deadweight tons (dwt), which represents 55% of the global total during this period. Moreover, the industry’s order backlogs increased by 38.6% to 171.55 million dwt. China’s dominance is no fluke, the country leads in 14 out of 18 major ship types for new orders.

But what’s driving this rapid ascent? It’s a mix of cutting-edge technology, surging global demand, and the unmatched efficiency of Chinese shipyards. By adopting advanced construction techniques and digital tools, China has managed to build ships faster and better, which has translated into booming profits. In fact, the industry’s profits for the first five months of 2024 came in at 16 billion yuan ($2.24 billion), up 187.5% year-over-year.

China’s defense industry is rapidly advancing, producing increasingly larger and more capable warships at an impressive pace. For instance, the construction of the Yulan-class landing helicopter assault (LHA) ship, also known as the Type 076, at the Changxing Island Shipbuilding Base. This vessel is set to be a game-changer, poised to become the largest amphibious assault ship in the world.

Satellite images from July 4 show the vessel’s flight deck spans over 13,500 square meters, which is nearly the size of three American football fields. That’s significantly larger than the U.S. America-class LHAs and Japan’s Izumo-class carriers and much bigger than its Chinese predecessor, the Type 075.

The Type 076 isn’t just about size; it’s about capability. With room for dozens of aircraft, drones, and amphibious landing craft, plus accommodations for over 1,000 marines, this ship is set to revolutionize the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) power projection. Its expansive flight deck and roomy internal hangar will offer enhanced capacity and flexibility, making it a formidable addition to China’s naval arsenal.

Images also reveal that the drydock where the new 076 class is being constructed opened only in October as part of a new port expansion. This rapid production is giving Beijing a significant edge, with the potential to outpace its rivals like the United States.

Since 2019, China has launched four Type 075 vessels, with two now combat-ready and four more on order. Although the U.S. Navy leads in total warship tonnage, China has surpassed the U.S. in the number of warships over 1,000 tons, and in combat logistics and support vessels.

The real worry for U.S. officials is China’s shipbuilding capacity. According to U.S. Naval Intelligence, China’s shipbuilding capacity is now 632 times greater than the U.S., supported by a vast network of efficient shipyards.

In the past decade, China has launched 23 destroyers and eight guided-missile cruisers, while the U.S. has launched only 11 destroyers and none of the cruisers. This booming production capability, backed by a robust civilian shipbuilding industry, is raising serious concerns in Washington.

As nations respond to China’s expanding naval prowess, there is likely to be increased demand for advanced defense technologies and military solutions. This heightened demand could drive growth in defense stocks, reflecting the broader trends in global military strategy and procurement.

Therefore, investors and defense analysts are turning their attention to how companies like Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) are positioned to capitalize on these developments. With that in mind, let’s dig deeper into the fundamental strength of the featured stocks in detail.

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

Security and aerospace company LMT focuses on research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products, and services. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics; Missiles and Fire Control; Rotary and Mission Systems; and Space.

LMT’s net sales increased 8.6% year-over-year to $18.12 billion in the fiscal 2024 second quarter (ended June 30). Its consolidated operating profit grew marginally from the year-ago value to $2.04 billion, while its non-GAAP net earnings amounted to $1.64 billion in the same period. Also, the company’s EPS came in at $6.65, up 3.3% year-over-year.

While analysts predict a slight 4.6% drop in EPS for the year ending December 2024, its revenue is expected to grow by 5.5% year-over-year to $71.25 billion. For fiscal 2025, forecasts suggest revenue and EPS will hit $74.16 billion and $28.01, respectively.

Regarding rewarding shareholders, Lockheed Martin offers a stable dividend with a four-year average yield of 2.66% and a payout ratio of 44.3%. LMT’s current annual dividend of $12.60 translates to a 2.26% yield at the prevailing share price. Moreover, the company has increased its dividend payouts at a CAGR of 6.9% over the past three years.

In terms of price performance, the stock has gained nearly 30% over the past six months. As defense budgets rise globally, driven by geopolitical tensions, Lockheed Martin is well-positioned to benefit and deliver stable returns to your portfolio.

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)

NOC operates as a global aerospace and defense technology company through four segments: Aeronautics Systems; Defense Systems; Mission Systems; and Space Systems. The company leads in satellite manufacturing and space technology, contributing to missions like NASA’s Artemis program.

Recently, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $2.06 per share on the common stock, in consistent with its 10% increase announced on May 14. This dividend is payable to its shareholders on September 18, 2024. With a forward annual dividend of $8.24 per share and a yield of 1.62%, Northrop not only rewards shareholders but also boasts 21 years of consecutive dividend growth.

Financially, NOC is on a solid footing. In the second quarter (ended June 30, 2024), its total sales increased 6.7% year-over-year to $10.22 billion, while its total operating income rose 12.7% from the year-ago value to $1.09 billion. Net earnings for the quarter came in at $940 million and $6.36 per share, reflecting an increase of 15.8% and 19.1% from the same period last year, respectively. Also, its free cash flow improved by 79.7% from the prior-year quarter to $1.10 billion.

Street expects NOC’s revenue to increase 5.2% year-over-year in the current year (ending December 2024) to $41.34 billion, while its EPS is expected to grow by 8.2% from the prior year to $25.20 in the same period. For the fiscal year 2025, its revenue and EPS are expected to reach $42.92 billion and $27.69, registering an increase of 3.8% and 9.8%, respectively.

Moreover, NOC’s shares have gained more than 16% over the past month and nearly 9% year-to-date, making it a compelling option in a rapidly evolving defense landscape.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: China’s Naval Expansion: Why Defense Stocks Like NOC & LMT Are Poised for Growth

From thoughts to words: How AI deciphers neural signals to help a man with ALS speak

By Nicholas Card, University of California, Davis 

Brain-computer interfaces are a groundbreaking technology that can help paralyzed people regain functions they’ve lost, like moving a hand. These devices record signals from the brain and decipher the user’s intended action, bypassing damaged or degraded nerves that would normally transmit those brain signals to control muscles.

Since 2006, demonstrations of brain-computer interfaces in humans have primarily focused on restoring arm and hand movements by enabling people to control computer cursors or robotic arms. Recently, researchers have begun developing speech brain-computer interfaces to restore communication for people who cannot speak.

As the user attempts to talk, these brain-computer interfaces record the person’s unique brain signals associated with attempted muscle movements for speaking and then translate them into words. These words can then be displayed as text on a screen or spoken aloud using text-to-speech software.

I’m a reseacher in the Neuroprosthetics Lab at the University of California, Davis, which is part of the BrainGate2 clinical trial. My colleagues and I recently demonstrated a speech brain-computer interface that deciphers the attempted speech of a man with ALS, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease. The interface converts neural signals into text with over 97% accuracy. Key to our system is a set of artificial intelligence language models – artificial neural networks that help interpret natural ones.

Casey Harrell, who has ALS, works with a brain-computer interface to turn his thoughts into words.
Nicholas Card

Recording brain signals

The first step in our speech brain-computer interface is recording brain signals. There are several sources of brain signals, some of which require surgery to record. Surgically implanted recording devices can capture high-quality brain signals because they are placed closer to neurons, resulting in stronger signals with less interference. These neural recording devices include grids of electrodes placed on the brain’s surface or electrodes implanted directly into brain tissue.

In our study, we used electrode arrays surgically placed in the speech motor cortex, the part of the brain that controls muscles related to speech, of the participant, Casey Harrell. We recorded neural activity from 256 electrodes as Harrell attempted to speak.

A small square device with an array of spikes on the bottom and a bundle of wires on the top
An array of 64 electrodes that embed into brain tissue records neural signals.
UC Davis Health

Decoding brain signals

The next challenge is relating the complex brain signals to the words the user is trying to say.

One approach is to map neural activity patterns directly to spoken words. This method requires recording brain signals corresponding to each word multiple times to identify the average relationship between neural activity and specific words. While this strategy works well for small vocabularies, as demonstrated in a 2021 study with a 50-word vocabulary, it becomes impractical for larger ones. Imagine asking the brain-computer interface user to try to say every word in the dictionary multiple times – it could take months, and it still wouldn’t work for new words.

Instead, we use an alternative strategy: mapping brain signals to phonemes, the basic units of sound that make up words. In English, there are 39 phonemes, including ch, er, oo, pl and sh, that can be combined to form any word. We can measure the neural activity associated with every phoneme multiple times just by asking the participant to read a few sentences aloud. By accurately mapping neural activity to phonemes, we can assemble them into any English word, even ones the system wasn’t explicitly trained with.

To map brain signals to phonemes, we use advanced machine learning models. These models are particularly well-suited for this task due to their ability to find patterns in large amounts of complex data that would be impossible for humans to discern. Think of these models as super-smart listeners that can pick out important information from noisy brain signals, much like you might focus on a conversation in a crowded room. Using these models, we were able to decipher phoneme sequences during attempted speech with over 90% accuracy.

The brain-computer interface uses a clone of Casey Harrell’s voice to read aloud the text it deciphers from his neural activity.

From phonemes to words

Once we have the deciphered phoneme sequences, we need to convert them into words and sentences. This is challenging, especially if the deciphered phoneme sequence isn’t perfectly accurate. To solve this puzzle, we use two complementary types of machine learning language models.

The first is n-gram language models, which predict which word is most likely to follow a set of n words. We trained a 5-gram, or five-word, language model on millions of sentences to predict the likelihood of a word based on the previous four words, capturing local context and common phrases. For example, after “I am very good,” it might suggest “today” as more likely than “potato”. Using this model, we convert our phoneme sequences into the 100 most likely word sequences, each with an associated probability.

The second is large language models, which power AI chatbots and also predict which words most likely follow others. We use large language models to refine our choices. These models, trained on vast amounts of diverse text, have a broader understanding of language structure and meaning. They help us determine which of our 100 candidate sentences makes the most sense in a wider context.

By carefully balancing probabilities from the n-gram model, the large language model and our initial phoneme predictions, we can make a highly educated guess about what the brain-computer interface user is trying to say. This multistep process allows us to handle the uncertainties in phoneme decoding and produce coherent, contextually appropriate sentences.

Diagram showing a man, his brain, wires and a computer screen
How the UC Davis speech brain-computer interface deciphers neural activity and turns them into words.
UC Davis Health

Real-world benefits

In practice, this speech decoding strategy has been remarkably successful. We’ve enabled Casey Harrell, a man with ALS, to “speak” with over 97% accuracy using just his thoughts. This breakthrough allows him to easily converse with his family and friends for the first time in years, all in the comfort of his own home.

Speech brain-computer interfaces represent a significant step forward in restoring communication. As we continue to refine these devices, they hold the promise of giving a voice to those who have lost the ability to speak, reconnecting them with their loved ones and the world around them.

However, challenges remain, such as making the technology more accessible, portable and durable over years of use. Despite these hurdles, speech brain-computer interfaces are a powerful example of how science and technology can come together to solve complex problems and dramatically improve people’s lives.The Conversation

About the Author:

Nicholas Card, Postdoctoral Fellow of Neuroscience and Neuroengineering, University of California, Davis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

A third of the world’s population lacks internet connectivity − airborne communications stations could change that

By Mohamed-Slim Alouini, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and Mariette DiChristina, Boston University 

About one-third of the global population, around 3 billion people, don’t have access to the internet or have poor connections because of infrastructure limitations, economic disparities and geographic isolation.

Today’s satellites and ground-based networks leave communications gaps where, because of geography, setting up traditional ground-based communications equipment would be too expensive.

High-altitude platform stations – telecommunications equipment positioned high in the air, on uncrewed balloons, airships, gliders and airplanes – could increase social and economic equality by filling internet connectivity gaps in ground and satellite coverage. This could allow more people to participate fully in the digital age.

One of us, Mohamed-Slim Alouini, is an electrical engineer who contributed to an experiment that showed it is possible to provide high data rates and ubiquitous 5G coverage from the stratosphere. The stratosphere is the second lowest layer of the atmosphere, ranging from 4 to 30 miles above the Earth. Commercial planes usually fly in the lower part of the stratosphere. The experiment measured signals between platform stations and users on the ground in three scenarios: a person staying in one place, a person driving a car and a person operating a boat.

My colleagues measured how strong the signal is in relation to interference and background noise levels. This is one of the measures of network reliability. The results showed that the platform stations can support high-data-rate applications such as streaming 4K resolution videos and can cover 15 to 20 times the area of standard terrestrial towers.

Early attempts by Facebook and Google to commercially deploy platform stations were unsuccessful. But recent investments, technological improvements and interest from traditional aviation companies and specialized aerospace startups may change the equation.

The goal is global connectivity, a cause that brought the platform stations idea recognition in the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Top 10 Emerging Technologies report. The international industry initiative HAPS Alliance, which includes academic partners, is also pushing toward that goal.

An experimental aircraft like this solar-powered airship could someday play a role in providing internet access to rural areas or disaster zones.
Thales Alenia Space via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Fast, cost effective, flexible

Platform stations would be faster, more cost effective and more flexible than satellite-based systems.

Because they keep communications equipment closer to Earth than satellites, the stations could offer stronger, higher-capacity signals. This would enable real-time communications speedy enough to communicate with standard smartphones, high-resolution capabilities for imaging tasks and greater sensitivity for sensing applications. They transmit data via free-space optics, or light beams, and large-scale antenna array systems, which can send large amounts of data quickly.

Satellites can be vulnerable to eavesdropping or jamming when their orbits bring them over adversarial countries. But platform stations remain within the airspace of a single country, which reduces that risk.

High-altitude platform stations are also easier to put in place than satellites, which have high launch and maintenance costs. And the regulatory requirements and compliance procedures required to secure spots in the stratosphere are likely to be simpler than the complex international laws governing satellite orbits. Platform stations are also easier to upgrade, so improvements could be deployed more quickly.

Platform stations are also potentially less polluting than satellite mega-constellations because satellites burn up upon reentry and can release harmful metals into the atmosphere, while platform stations can be powered by clean energy sources such as solar and green hydrogen.

The key challenges to practical platform stations are increasing the amount of time they can stay aloft to months at a time, boosting green onboard power and improving reliability – especially during automated takeoff and landing through the lower turbulent layers of the atmosphere.

Diagram showing a rural area with a river running through it and airships providing communications lines. Circular insets show a mobile user, internet of things devices and satellite.
A network of interconnected high-altitude platform stations could connect mobile users and Internet of Things devices in rural areas.

Beyond satellites

Platform stations could play a critical role in emergency and humanitarian situations by supporting relief efforts when ground-based networks are damaged or inoperative.

The stations could also connect Internet of Things (IoT) devices and sensors in remote settings to better monitor the environment and manage resources.

In agriculture, the stations could use imaging and sensing technologies to help farmers monitor crop health, soil conditions and water resources.

Their capability for high-resolution imaging could also support navigation and mapping activities crucial for cartography, urban planning and disaster response.

The stations could also do double duty by carrying instruments for atmospheric monitoring, climate studies and remote sensing of Earth’s surface features, vegetation and oceans.

From balloons to airplanes

Platform stations could be based on different types of aircraft.

Balloons offer stable, long-duration operation at high altitudes and can be tethered or free-floating. Airships, also known as dirigibles or blimps, use lighter-than-air gases and are larger and more maneuverable than balloons. They’re especially well suited for surveillance, communications and research.

Gliders and powered aircraft can be controlled more precisely than balloons, which are sensitive to variations in wind speed. In addition, powered aircraft, which include drones and fixed-wing airplanes, can provide electricity to communication equipment, sensors and cameras.

Next-generation power

Platform stations could make use of diverse power sources, including increasingly lightweight and efficient solar cells, high-energy-density batteries, green hydrogen internal combustion engines, green hydrogen fuel cells, which are now at the testing stage, and eventually, laser beam powering from ground- or space-based solar stations.

The evolution of lightweight aircraft designs coupled with advancements in high-efficiency motors and propellers enable planes to fly longer and carry heavier payloads. These cutting-edge lightweight planes could lead to platform stations capable of maneuvering in the stratosphere for extended periods.

Meanwhile, improvements in stratospheric weather models and atmospheric models make it easier to predict and simulate the conditions under which the platform stations would operate.

Bridging the global digital divide

Commerical deployment of platform stations, at least for post-disaster or emergency situations, could be in place by the end of the decade. For instance, a consortium in Japan, a country with remote mountainous and island communities, has earmarked US$100 million for solar-powered, high-altitude platform stations.

Platform stations could bridge the digital divide by increasing access to critical services such as education and health care, providing new economic opportunities and improving emergency response and environmental monitoring. As advances in technology continue to drive their evolution, platform stations are set to play a crucial role in a more inclusive and resilient digital future.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Mohamed-Slim Alouini, Distinguished Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and Mariette DiChristina, Dean and Professor of the Practice in Journalism, College of Communication, Boston University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Gold’s Price Prospects Amid Middle East Tensions and Fed Policies

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have recently dipped to 2507 USD per troy ounce but are poised for a potential rebound due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, anticipations of monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve in September further bolster gold’s outlook.

Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a likely rate cut as US inflation approaches the target of 2%, with a particular focus on the softening employment market impacted by prolonged high interest rates. Mary Daly of the FRB San Francisco echoed Powell’s sentiment, advocating for policy adjustments which support a favourable environment for gold as lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Geopolitical Influences

The situation in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and the Gaza Strip, remains volatile. Despite initial hopes for a peace agreement facilitated by US diplomatic efforts, the conflict has reignited, driving up demand for gold. Such geopolitical uncertainties typically enhance gold’s appeal as a protective investment during times of crisis.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

In the latest XAUUSD analysis, gold exhibited a downward impulse to 2470.77 USD, followed by a correction to 2526.00 USD. It is forming another downward wave targeting 2480.20 USD, expecting to break this level and potentially move towards 2435.55 USD. The MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero but pointing downward, supports this bearish scenario.

After completing a corrective structure to 2526.00 USD, gold is expected to form a downward wave to 2500.00 USD. Upon reaching this target, a brief rise to 2513.33 USD might occur before continuing downward to 2480.20 USD. This pattern suggests only half of the anticipated downward trend. The Stochastic oscillator, near 50 and expected to rise to 80, indicates potential short-term gains before resuming the downward movement.

Summary

The interplay of easing monetary policies by the Fed and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East creates a complex but potentially favourable backdrop for gold prices. Investors might see gold as an attractive investment, a safe-haven asset and a hedge against potential currency devaluation and inflation uncertainties. These factors and technical indicators suggest a volatile but upward potential trajectory for gold prices in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.