Archive for Opinions – Page 23

What’s Next For Gold?

Global Analyst Adrian Day reviews initial results from Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS:TSX) and takes a look at gold and gold stocks.

Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS:TSX) reported royalty revenue lower than both the previous and the year-ago quarter, as well as below estimates. Attributable revenue fell CA$2.3 million from CA$15 million in the first quarter, largely due to weak iron ore royalties, which accounted for CA$1.7 million of the decline.

Base metals revenue also fell due mostly to the timing of deliveries; potash was also down due to maintenance downtime. Given the temporary nature of these issues and higher prices, we expect both segments to recovery this quarter. These three areas were also down relative to the year-ago quarter, with iron ore revenue falling from a particularly strong $4.1 million to $1.1million.

Overall, revenue fell from over $20 million in the year-ago quarter to $12.7 million last quarter. Renewable energy saw high revenue as projects ramp up. The near-term focus continues to be the disposition of Altius’ 1.5% royalty on Anglo’s Arthur Deposit, with a pro forma value, based on the sale of Orogen’s similar 1% royalty, of CA$515 million, or just over 40% of Altius’ market cap.

Altius remains a Buy based on its NAV and potential gains from the sale of its Arthur royalty (or more).

TOP PICKS this week, in addition to above, include Nestle SA (NESN:VX; NSRGY:OTC), Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE), Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ), and Fox River Resources Corp. (FOX:CSE).

THE U.S. DOLLAR After falling 11% in the first half, the worst first-half since 1973, the dollar is oversold; we should not expect another imminent sharp decline; markets don’t move in straight lines. However, a recovery may be slow and modest rather than any V-shaped rebound. Tariffs and other policies are making foreign investors reduce exposure to U.S. assets. When a foreigner buys, for example, U.S. stocks, bonds, or real estate, he must first convert his currency into dollars, boosting the dollar. A reduced appetite for U.S. assets, therefore, reduces demand for dollars. We are not forecasting a dollar collapse any time soon — other major currencies hardly represent fiscal rectitude — but at the margin, appetite for the Euro, British pound, yen, and commodity currencies (including the Canadian dollar, already up this year from 0.69 cents to 73) will increase, along with an increased demand for gold.

Gold Buying Trends and Stock Valuations

Central bank buying picked up in May, as gross sales declined meaningfully, the latest month for which data is available; though above multi-year levels, buying remains below the levels of 2023 and 2024. The People’s Bank of China added for the seventh straight month, after a pause last fall. Meanwhile, Chinese non-official buying, including inflows to China gold ETFs, has dwindled to almost nothingness, after surging earlier in the year. Global ETF inflows have picked up, however, the remain soft in the U.S. There were some inflows in the first three weeks of June, but then buying fell off again, with the largest ETF, GLD, seeing over $900 million in net outflows since June 24th. Commodity traders continue to be positive, but have reduced their positions all year (to little more than half of the February peak).

A record 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, while none expects a decrease, this according to a survey from the World Gold Council. Over 40% of respondents expected their own reserves to increase, and none a decrease. After another strong quarter of central bank buying, gold is now the second-largest reserve asset, surpassing the Euro.

Main Drivers of Gold Remain Intact

For now, the major driver of gold buying revolves around possible changes in the global monetary regime, most notably central bank diversification in the face of dollar weaponization. Nothing that has happened this year diminishes that drive. Given this, it makes sense that U.S. demand has been weak, since concerns about monetary regime changes are more muted. But a major and long-lasting change in that regime, with the U.S. dollar losing its status as the sole reserve currency, along with less willingness to hold dollars internationally, most assuredly will have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and investor sentiment (cf. Britain in the 1950s to 1970s, when the pound fell from being worth five dollars to par, before Margaret Thatcher rescued the country).

There have been other factors supporting gold, of course, as diverse as the Trump-Powell tiff and the Middle East. But we have yet to see the macroeconomic environment, the things that traditionally drive gold, turn in gold’s favor. The U.S. has been characterized by a strong economy, low and falling inflation, high interest rates (and positive real rates), and, until this year, a relatively strong dollar. This is precisely the opposite of the environment conducive to gold. All of this is changing, if slowly, and as the narrative shifts, U.S. interest in gold will increase.

Gold Stock Sentiment Remains Weak

Add to the economic environment the fact that the S&P continues to go up month after month (as does the so-called Magnificent 7, despite some individual names stumbling), means that investors do not see the need to buy gold stocks. After a minor flurry into gold miner ETFs in late May early June, the flows reversed, with the GDX seeing $570 million of outflows in the past month, over $3.4 billion for the year to date. The dichotomy between prices and flows has never been greater.

Generalist interest is even weaker. Almost 80% of investment advisors have been zero and 1% exposure to gold in accounts they manage (and I bet for most of them, it’s close to zero than to 1%). Non-gold mutual funds have virtually no exposure. A total of 322 of the largest funds holds just 35 gold stocks. Only three funds own GLD among their top 20 positions, four own Newmont, and one owns Barrick.

Crowded Trade? Anything But

Staggeringly and unbelievably, global fund managers think that gold is the “most crowded” trade, according to a survey from Bank of America, with 58% of managers choosing gold against 22% saying the Magnificent 7, and only 1% saying the U.S. two-year Treasury. The number selecting gold (in May, the latest month) was up on April, despite the flat gold price since then. This is a reflection of managers who missed the bull move, in my view.

S&P investors, of course, are already lagging, with not only gold stocks but gold itself beating the S&P over the past four-, three-, two- and one-year periods, as well as year to Source: Bloomberg Date, and increasingly handsomely so (with the XAU up over 50% this year against less than 8% for the S&P, including dividends). In the graph are gold (white), the XAU (blue) and the S&P (red) year to date.

Gold Stocks Remain Undervalued, as Value Increases

Oscar Wilde berated those who know the price of everything but the value of nothing. Certainly, the 50% plus increase in the XAU indices this year has led many to instinctively think that the gold stocks are expensive. But the stocks are still extremely undervalued.

As the price of gold moves up, from the low $1,600s less than three years ago, to today $3,350, the value of the gold in the ground moves up; the price-to-NAV has therefore not increased over that period. As the price of gold has moved up far more rapidly than the cost of mining, the margins have expanded and with it corporate cash flows increased; thus the price-to-cash flow multiples have declined.

So we see the gold-standard of mining companies, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE), trading in its lowest quartile of price-to-cash flow metric in 40 years; while Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX:TSX; B:NYSE), the #2 gold producer, is trading in the lowest decile of price-to-NAV in its history. Normally, when the price of the commodity goes up, we expect to see multiple expansion not contraction. Commodity prices are trading at 100-year lows relative to U.S. stocks. The same is true of mining stocks generally,

Sources: S&P Market Intelligence; Statista not only gold stocks; they are trading at significant 100-year lows, and less than 10% of their late-1960 relative valuation peaks.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Altius Minerals Corp., Franco-Nevada Corp., Fox Riv Res Corp., Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Barrick Mng Corp.
Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Adrian Day Disclosures

Adrian Day’s Global Analyst is distributed for $990 per year by Investment Consultants International, Ltd., P.O. Box 6644, Annapolis, MD 21401. (410) 224-8885. www.AdrianDayGlobalAnalyst.com. Publisher: Adrian Day. Owner: Investment Consultants International, Ltd. Staff may have positions in securities discussed herein. Adrian Day is also President of Global Strategic Management (GSM), a registered investment advisor, and a separate company from this service. In his capacity as GSM president, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein, and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. This is not a solicitation for GSM. Views herein are the editor’s opinion and not fact. All information is believed to be correct, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The owner and editor are not responsible for errors and omissions. © 2023. Adrian Day’s Global Analyst. Information and advice herein are intended purely for the subscriber’s own account. Under no circumstances may any part of a Global Analyst e-mail be copied or distributed without prior written permission of the editor. Given the nature of this service, we will pursue any violations aggressively.

Metals Opinions

31 Jul

How wind and solar power helps keep America’s farms alive

By Paul Mwebaze, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Drive through the plains of Iowa or Kansas and you’ll see more than rows of corn, wheat and soybeans. You’ll also see towering wind turbines spinning above fields and solar panels shining in the sun on barns and machine sheds.

For many farmers, these are lifelines. Renewable energy provides steady income and affordable power, helping farms stay viable when crop prices fall or drought strikes.

But some of that opportunity is now at risk as the Trump administration cuts federal support for renewable energy.

Wind power brings steady income for farms

Wind energy is a significant economic driver in rural America. In Iowa, for example, over 60% of the state’s electricity came from wind energy in 2024, and the state is a hub for wind turbine manufacturing and maintenance jobs.

For landowners, wind turbines often mean stable lease payments. Those historically were around US$3,000 to $5,000 per turbine per year, with some modern agreements $5,000 to $10,000 annually, secured through 20- to 30-year contracts.

Nationwide, wind and solar projects contribute about $3.5 billion annually in combined lease payments and state and local taxes, more than a third of it going directly to rural landowners.

A U.S. map shows the strongest wind power potential in the central U.S., particularly the Great Plains and Midwestern states. — States throughout the Great Plains and Midwest, from Texas to Montana to Ohio, have the strongest onshore winds and onshore wind power potential. These are also in the heart of U.S. farm country. The map shows wind speeds at 100 meters (nearly 330 feet), about the height of a typical land-based wind turbine.
NREL

These figures are backed by long-term contracts and multibillion‑dollar annual contributions, reinforcing the economic value that turbines bring to rural landowners and communities.

Wind farms also contribute to local tax revenues that help fund rural schools, roads and emergency services. In counties across Texas, wind energy has become one of the most significant contributors to local property tax bases, stabilizing community budgets and helping pay for public services as agricultural commodity revenues fluctuate.

In Oldham County in northwest Texas, for example, clean energy projects provided 22% of total county revenues in 2021. In several other rural counties, wind farms rank among the top 10 property taxpayers, contributing between 38% and 69% of tax revenue.

The construction and operation of these projects also bring local jobs in trucking, concrete work and electrical services, boosting small-town businesses.

The U.S. wind industry supports over 300,000 U.S. jobs across construction, manufacturing, operations and other roles connected to the industry, according to the American Clean Power Association.

Renewable energy has been widely expected to continue to grow along with rising energy demand. In 2024, 93% of all new electricity generating capacity was wind, solar or energy storage, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected a similar percentage in 2025 as of June.

Solar can cut power costs on the farm

Solar energy is also boosting farm finances. Farmers use rooftop panels on barns and ground-mounted systems to power irrigation pumps, grain dryers and cold storage facilities, cutting their power costs.

Some farmers have adopted agrivoltaics – dual-use systems that grow crops beneath solar panels. The panels provide shade, helping conserve water, while creating a second income path. These projects often cultivate pollinator-friendly plants, vegetables such as lettuce and spinach, or even grasses for grazing sheep, making the land productive for both food and energy.

Federal grants and tax credits that were significantly expanded under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act helped make the upfront costs of solar installations affordable.

However, the federal spending bill signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, 2025, rolled back many clean energy incentives. It phases down tax credits for distributed solar projects, particularly those under 1 megawatt, which include many farm‑scale installations, and sunsets them entirely by 2028. It also eliminates bonus credits that previously supported rural and low‑income areas.

Without these credits, the upfront cost of solar power could be out of reach for some farmers, leaving them paying higher energy costs. At a 2024 conference organized by the Institute of Sustainability, Energy and Environment at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, where I work as a research economist, farmers emphasized the importance of tax credits and other economic incentives to offset the upfront cost of solar power systems.

What’s being lost

The cuts to federal incentives include terminating the Production Tax Credit for new projects placed in service after Dec. 31, 2027, unless construction begins by July 4, 2026, and is completed within a tight time frame. The tax credit pays eligible wind and solar facilities approximately 2.75 cents per kilowatt-hour over 10 years, effectively lowering the cost of renewable energy generation. Ending that tax credit will likely increase the cost of production, potentially leading to higher electricity prices for consumers and fewer new projects coming online.

The changes also accelerate the phase‑out of wind power tax credits. Projects must now begin construction by July 4, 2026, or be in service before the end of 2027 to qualify for any credit.

Meanwhile, the Investment Tax Credit, which covers 30% of installed cost for solar and other renewables, faces similar limits: Projects must begin by July 4, 2026, and be completed by the end of 2027 to claim the credits. The bill also cuts bonuses for domestic components and installations in rural or low‑income locations. These adjustments could slow new renewable energy development, particularly smaller projects that directly benefit rural communities.

While many existing clean energy agreements will remain in place for now, the rollback of federal incentives threatens future projects and could limit new income streams. It also affects manufacturing and jobs in those industries, which some rural communities rely on.

Renewable energy also powers rural economies

Renewable energy benefits entire communities, not just individual farmers.

Wind and solar projects contribute millions of dollars in tax revenue. For example, in Howard County, Iowa, wind turbines generated $2.7 million in property tax revenue in 2024, accounting for 14.5% of the county’s total budget and helping fund rural schools, public safety and road improvements.

In some rural counties, clean energy is the largest new source of economic activity, helping stabilize local economies otherwise reliant on agriculture’s unpredictable income streams. These projects also support rural manufacturing – such as Iowa turbine blade factories like TPI Composites, which just reopened its plant in Newton, and Siemens Gamesa in Fort Madison, which supply blades for GE and Siemens turbines. The tax benefits in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act helped boost those industries – and the jobs and local tax revenue they bring in.

On the solar side, rural companies like APA Solar Racking, based in Ohio, manufacture steel racking systems for utility-scale solar farms across the Midwest.

An example of how renewable energy has helped boost farm incomes and keep farmers on their land.

As rural America faces economic uncertainty and climate pressures, I believe homegrown renewable energy offers a practical path forward. Wind and solar aren’t just fueling the grid; they’re helping keep farms and rural towns alive.

About the Author:

Paul Mwebaze, Research Economist at the Institute for Sustainability, Energy and Environment, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

30 Jul

How the world’s nuclear watchdog monitors facilities around the world – and what it means that Iran kicked it out

By Anna Erickson, Georgia Institute of Technology

What happens when a country seeks to develop a peaceful nuclear energy program? Every peaceful program starts with a promise not to build a nuclear weapon. Then, the global community verifies that stated intent via the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Once a country signs the treaty, the world’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, provides continuous and technical proof that the country’s nuclear program is peaceful.

The IAEA ensures that countries operate their programs within the limits of nonproliferation agreements: low enrichment and no reactor misuse. Part of the agreement allows the IAEA to inspect nuclear-related sites, including unannounced surprise visits.

These are not just log reviews. Inspectors know what should and should not be there. When the IAEA is not on site, cameras, tamper-revealing seals on equipment and real-time radiation monitors are working full-time to gather or verify inside information about the program’s activities.

This travel case holds a toolkit containing equipment for inspecting nuclear facilities.
Dean Calma/IAEA, CC BY

Safeguards toolkit

The IAEA safeguards toolkit is designed to detect proliferation activities early. Much of the work is fairly technical. The safeguards toolkit combines physical surveillance, material tracking, data analytics and scientific sampling. Inspectors are chemists, physicists and nuclear engineers. They count spent fuel rods in a cooling pond. They check tamper seals on centrifuges. Often, the inspectors walk miles through hallways and corridors carrying heavy equipment.

That’s how the world learned in April 2021 about Iran pushing uranium enrichment from reactor-fuel-grade to near-weapons-grade levels. IAEA inspectors were able to verify that Iran was feeding uranium into a series of centrifuges designed to enrich the uranium from 5%, used for energy programs, to 60%, which is a step toward the 90% level used in nuclear weapons.

Around the facilities, whether for uranium enrichment or plutonium processing, closed-circuit surveillance cameras monitor for undeclared materials or post-work activities. Seals around the facilities provide evidence that uranium gas cylinders have not been tampered with or that centrifuges operate at the declared levels. Beyond seals, online enrichment monitors allow inspectors to look inside of centrifuges for any changes in the declared enrichment process.

Seals verify whether nuclear equipment or materials have been used between onsite inspections.

When the inspectors are on-site, they collect environmental swipes: samples of nuclear materials on surfaces, in dust or in the air. These can reveal if uranium has been enriched to levels beyond those allowed by the agreement. Or if plutonium, which is not used in nuclear power plants, is being produced in a reactor. Swipes are precise. They can identify enrichment levels from a particle smaller than a speck of dust. But they take time, days or weeks. Inspectors analyze the samples at the IAEA’s laboratories using sophisticated equipment called mass spectrometers.

In addition to physical samples, IAEA inspectors look at the logs of material inventories. They look for diversion of uranium or plutonium from normal process lines, just like accountants trace the flow of finances, except that their verification is supported by the ever-watching online monitors and radiation sensors. They also count items of interest and weigh them for additional verification of the logs.

Beyond accounting for materials, IAEA inspectors verify that the facility matches the declared design. For example, if a country is expanding centrifuge halls to increase its enrichment capabilities, that’s a red flag. Changes to the layout of material processing laboratories near nuclear reactors could be a sign that the program is preparing to produce unauthorized plutonium.

Losing access

Iran announced on June 28, 2025, that it has ended its cooperation with the IAEA. It removed the monitoring devices, including surveillance cameras, from centrifuge halls. This move followed the news by the IAEA that Iran’s enrichment activities are well outside of allowed levels. Iran now operates sophisticated uranium centrifuges, like models IR-6 and IR-9.

Removing IAEA access means that the international community loses insight into how quickly Iran’s program can accumulate weapon-grade uranium, or how much it has produced. Also lost is information about whether the facility is undergoing changes for proliferation purposes. These processes are difficult to detect with external surveillance, like satellites, alone.

An alternative to the uranium enrichment path for producing nuclear weapons material is plutonium. Plutonium can’t be mined, it has to be produced in a nuclear reactor. Iran built a reactor capable of producing plutonium, the IR-40 Heavy Water Research Reactor at the Arak Nuclear Complex.

Iran modified the Arak reactor under the now-defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to make plutonium production less likely. During the June 2025 missile attacks, Israel targeted Arak’s facilities with the aim of eliminating the possibility of plutonium production.

With IAEA access suspended, it won’t be possible to see what happens inside the facility. Can the reactor be used for plutonium production? Although a lengthier process than the uranium enrichment path, plutonium provides a parallel path to uranium enrichment for developing nuclear weapons.

Continuity of knowledge

North Korea expelled IAEA inspectors in 2009. Within a few years, they restarted activities related to uranium enrichment and plutonium production in the Yongbyon reactor. The international community’s information about North Korea’s weapons program now relies solely on external methods: satellite images, radioactive particles like xenon – airborne fingerprints of nuclear activities – and seismic data.

What is lost is the continuity of the knowledge, a chain of verification over time. Once the seals are broken or cameras are removed, that chain is lost, and so is confidence about what is happening at the facilities.

When it comes to IAEA inspections, there is no single tool that paints the whole picture. Surveillance plus sampling plus accounting provide validation and confidence. Losing even one weakens the system in the long term.

The existing safeguards regime is meant to detect violations. The countries that sign the nonproliferation treaty know that they are always watched, and that plays a deterrence role. The inspectors can’t just resume the verification activities after some time if access is lost. Future access won’t necessarily enable inspectors to clarify what happened during the gap.

About the Author:

Anna Erickson, Professor of Nuclear and Radiological Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

30 Jul

Mag 7 Earnings Preview: Wall Street Faces $11 Trillion Test

By ForexTime

4 of “Magnificent 7” set to publish earnings
Combined market cap of 4 tech titans over $11 trillion
Beyond earnings, key focus on tariff impact & AI spending
Meta could move almost 6% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
Apple shares ↓ over 15% year-to-date

Four of the “Magnificent 7” tech giants with a combined market capitalization of over $11 trillion are set to publish their results this week.

And this could be pivotal for markets given the ongoing uncertainty around Trump’s tariff drama. Investors will be eager to learn from these titans how global trade developments have affected their businesses.

Note: A volley of country-specific tariffs will take effect on August 1st, with the United States only securing six trade deals as of writing. There could be a potential extension of a tariff pause between the US and China.

Fresh updates from Mag 7 companies Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple will be in focus.

Here is what you need to know:

1) Microsoft

Microsoft reports on its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday 30th July after US markets close.

Shares of the tech giant have gained over 20% year-to-date, with Wall Street analysts expecting Microsoft to post revenue and income growth amid growing AI demand. Quarterly revenues are projected to jump by 14% to $73.9 billion, while earnings per share are forecast to increase to $3.37 from $2.95 the same time a year ago.

Beyond revenue growth, updates on the Azure cloud service and AI initiatives will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 3.9% move, either up or down, for Microsoft shares post earnings.

2) Meta

Meta is set to report second-quarter earnings after US markets close on Wednesday 30th July.

Shares of this tech titan are up almost 20% since the start of 2025, powered by the hunger for AI. Quarterly revenues are forecast to rise $44.8 billion – marking a 15% jump from a year earlier while EPS are seen jumping to $5.89 from $5.16.

Markets are forecasting a 5.8% move, either up or down, for Meta shares post earnings.

3) Amazon

Amazon is scheduled to report second quarter earnings after US markets close on Thursday 31st July.

The tech giant is expected to report a nearly 10% jump in revenues to $162.1 billion while earnings per share are projected to increase to $1.32 from $1.26 the same time a year ago. Amazon Web Services has shown dominance in the cloud computing space, so the AWS and advertising business will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 5% move, either up or down, for Amazon stocks post earnings.

4) Apple

Apple reports its quarterly results after the closing bell on Thursday 31st July.

It has been a rough year for Apple thus far with its share down over 15% year-to-date.

The iPhone maker is expected to report 4% revenue growth amid improving services revenue and iPhone sales. Still, investors will be looking for updates on investment in Apple Intelligence and sales in China.

Markets are forecasting a 3.5% move, either up or down, for Apple shares post earnings.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

27 Jul

Currency Speculators cut their British Pound Bets to 22-Week Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Mexican Peso, Canadian Dollar & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (5,942 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,751 contracts), the Japanese Yen (3,063 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,685 contracts), Bitcoin (634 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (214 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-28,621 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,797 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,336 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,428 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-2,706 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculator Bets fall to 22-Week Low

Highlighting this week’s currency speculators data is the sharp drop in the British Pound Sterling speculator bets.

The GBP speculator positions fell this week by -28,621 contracts and dropped for the second straight week. This was also the fifth time over the last six weeks that speculators have reduced their positioning for a 6-week drop by -51,064 contracts. This week’s decline marked the largest one-week drop in just about a year and takes the current speculator standing (+570 contracts) to the lowest level since February 18th, a span of 22 weeks.

Helping dent the speculator position for the British Pound Sterling is the outlook that the Bank of England could be reducing their benchmark interest rates. According to Reuters, traders see around an 80% chance of an interest rate reduction as early as August.

Despite the negative sentiment this week for the British Pound Sterling, the currency’s exchange rate continues to be near the highest levels since 2022 against the US dollar. This week, the GBP currency closed just below the 1.3500 level and saw a modest gain for the week.

Elsewhere in currency market prices:
– The Euro led the major market prices with an increase of over 1% against the US Dollar this week.
– The Mexican Peso, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen all saw higher exchange rates against the USD, varying from 0.75% to 1% gains.
– The US Dollar Index was the leading loser on the week with a decline of -0.84%.
– Bitcoin also saw a very modest small decline after recent all-time highs.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (80 percent) and the EuroFX (77 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent), New Zealand Dollar (61 percent) and the Mexican Peso (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (77.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (80.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (79.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (57.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.2 percent)
Bitcoin (13.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.0 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the EuroFX (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-11 percent), the US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.4 percent)
EuroFX (12.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.4 percent)
Bitcoin (3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	37.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	25.9	9.7
– Net Position:	-3,451	3,988	-537
– Gross Longs:	16,925	13,234	2,946
– Gross Shorts:	20,376	9,246	3,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	94.4	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	8.2	11.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	55.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	76.7	5.2
– Net Position:	125,515	-177,713	52,198
– Gross Longs:	248,380	469,100	96,216
– Gross Shorts:	122,865	646,813	44,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	20.7	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-9.0	-12.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	34.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.7	37.7	13.8
– Net Position:	570	-5,739	5,169
– Gross Longs:	93,760	67,928	32,179
– Gross Shorts:	93,190	73,667	27,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	61.5	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	22.7	-7.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 106,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	32.4	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	69.9	10.5
– Net Position:	106,645	-117,360	10,715
– Gross Longs:	164,411	101,532	43,676
– Gross Shorts:	57,766	218,892	32,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	21.3	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	13.0	-31.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	69.0	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	34.0	20.7
– Net Position:	-26,065	26,431	-366
– Gross Longs:	8,087	52,184	15,305
– Gross Shorts:	34,152	25,753	15,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	42.6	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	10.7	-7.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -70,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	70.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	34.5	12.4
– Net Position:	-70,343	71,510	-1,167
– Gross Longs:	23,086	140,760	23,647
– Gross Shorts:	93,429	69,250	24,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	43.9	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-8.3	-8.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	65.1	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	17.2	12.0
– Net Position:	-81,255	77,341	3,914
– Gross Longs:	25,066	105,142	23,352
– Gross Shorts:	106,321	27,801	19,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	76.0	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.1	-6.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	51.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	43.9	10.0
– Net Position:	-3,162	3,291	-129
– Gross Longs:	11,955	22,656	4,276
– Gross Shorts:	15,117	19,365	4,405
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.8	37.8	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-19.7	-7.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	37.6	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	72.6	1.7
– Net Position:	56,064	-60,340	4,276
– Gross Longs:	99,081	64,766	7,251
– Gross Shorts:	43,017	125,106	2,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	43.2	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	2.9	6.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	31.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	63.0	1.1
– Net Position:	25,857	-29,388	3,531
– Gross Longs:	58,202	29,484	4,575
– Gross Shorts:	32,345	58,872	1,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	33.0	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.8	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.4	5.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.4	1.3	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,852	1,247	605
– Gross Longs:	24,447	1,659	1,710
– Gross Shorts:	26,299	412	1,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	84.4	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-11.0	17.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 Jul

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Silver, Sugar & 5-Year top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 22nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain by 13 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 8,032 net contracts this week with a boost of 8,905 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a dip by -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 60,620 net contracts this week with a slight uptick by 1,172 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise by 20 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 30,728 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,164 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position is next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Palladium speculator level sits at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost by 26 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -2,300 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,281 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 85 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -6 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 108,858 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,413 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the 5-Year speculator level at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week. The overall speculator position was -2,469,924 net contracts this week with an increase by 35,604 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -12 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -59,729 net contracts this week with a change of -7,630 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

The Ultra 10-Year speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Ultra 10-Year speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -393,327 net contracts this week with a decrease of -14,211 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -10 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -73,578 net contracts this week with a gain of 6,164 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the USD Index speculator level sits at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -11 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -3,451 net contracts this week with a edge higher by 214 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

25 Jul

Week Ahead: Heavy hitter line up to rock US500?

By ForexTime

US500 ↑ over 8% YTD, recently touching ATH
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple = nearly 20% of US500 weight
US GDP, PCE & NFP could influence Fed cut bets
Trump’s tariff deadline = Liberation Day 2.0?
Technical levels: 6400, 6350 and 6300

If you thought the last few days were eventful, just wait until you see the calendar for the week ahead…

Rate decisions by major central banks, top-tier economic reports, corporate earnings from tech titans, and Trump’s tariff deadline will be in focus:

Sunday, 27th July

CN50: China industrial profits

Monday, 28th July

US-China trade talks in Stockholm

Tuesday, 29th July

AUD: Austria UniCredit Bank Austria manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations
SPN35: Spain GDP, retail sales
UK100: Barclays earnings.
US500: Conference Board, consumer confidence, job openings

Wednesday, 30th July

AUD: Australia CPI
CAD: Canada rate decision
EU50: Eurozone GDP, consumer confidence
GER40: Germany GDP
US500: US Fed rate decision, GDP, ADP employment, US Treasury quarterly refunding, Microsoft, Meta earnings

Thursday, 31st July

AUD: Australia retail sales
CAD: Canada GDP
CN50: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
GER40: Germany CPI, unemployment
JP225: Japan rate decision, industrial production, retail sales
ZAR: South Africa rate decision, trade
US500: US consumer income/spending, PCE price index, jobless claims, Apple, Amazon earnings

Friday, 1st August

AU200: Austria CPI
CN50: China S&P Global manufacturing PMI
EU50: Eurozone CPI, Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI
JPY: Japan unemployment, S&P Global manufacturing PMI
GBP: UK trade, S&P Global manufacturing PMI
US500: US NFP, S&P Global manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
Trump-imposed deadline for the US tariff pause ends

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s US500, which has gained over 8% year-to-date.

Note: FXTM’s US500 tracks the underlying S&P 500 index

US equities have been pushing higher with the US500 recently touching fresh all-time highs amid optimism about trade deals.

Here are 4 factors that could trigger significant moves:

1) Fed rate decision

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged in July, but any clues about future moves may shape the US500’s outlook.

Note: The latest US CPI report increased to 2.7% in June.

The US500 could rise if the Fed strikes a dovish tone and signals lower rates down the road.
Should Powell strike a hawkish note and suggest that rates may remain steady, it could drag the US500.

US500 is forecasted to move 1.5% up or down 1.4% in a 6-hour window after the Fed rate decision.

2) US data dump: Q2 GDP, PCE, ISM & NFP

A string of high-impact US data releases may influence Fed cut bets for the second half of 2025, impacting the US500 as a result.

Wednesday 30th July – Q2 GDP, ADP employment

Note: US500 is forecasted to move 0.5% up or down 0.8% in a 6-hour window after the US GDP report.

Thursday 31st July – US PCE price index, jobless claims

Note: US500 is forecasted to move 1.3% up or down 1.0% in a 6-hour window after the US PCE report.

Friday 1st August– US June NFP, ISM manufacturing

Note: US500 is forecasted to move 0.7% up or down 1.6% in a 6-hour window after the US NFP report.

Traders are currently pricing in one Fed rate cut in 2025 with the odds of a second cut by December at 70%.

Any significant shifts in these bets may impact the US500.

A set of figures that support the argument around lower rates may boost the US500.
Should data cool bets around lower rates, this may weigh on the US500.

3) Big tech set for big moves?

Four of the “Magnificent” 7 tech titans with a combined market cap of over $11 trillion are set to publish their latest results.

Quarterly results from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple could offer key insight into how the tech industry fared last quarter.

It is worth noting that the combined weight of Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple makes up just under 20% of the US500!

A solid set of results and optimistic forward guidance from tech titans may push the US500 higher.
Should results disappoint and concerns be expressed about the business outlook, the US500 could fall.

4) Trump’s tariff deadline

A barrage of country-specific tariffs will take effect on Friday, August 1st, unless targeted partners reach a deal with the United States.

So far, a deal has been struck with the UK, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines, and Indonesia, while there is optimism around a US-EU trade deal. Talks are still ongoing with China, with the third round of negotiations kicking off on Monday 28th.

The US government has only secured 5 trade deals, well below what was pledged on “Liberation Day” back in April. So, the question is whether markets could be headed for “Liberation Day 2.0” as time runs out.

If risk aversion returns with a vengeance, this may drag the US500 lower.

5) Technical forces

The US500 remains firmly bullish with prices closing above the 6350 psychological level. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling that prices are heavily overbought.

Should 6350 prove reliable support, this may push prices toward 6400 and 6450.
Weakness below 6350 may drag prices back toward 6300 and 6220.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

25 Jul

EUR/USD Under Pressure Despite Weaker US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair dipped to 1.1738 on Friday as the US dollar staged a modest recovery, though it remains on track for a weekly decline. Investors continue to weigh developments in trade negotiations while awaiting next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Recent reports suggest the US and EU are nearing a trade agreement, which would impose tariffs of 15% on most European goods, mirroring the recent deal struck with Japan.

Amid this backdrop, monetary policy is coming into sharper focus. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates on hold at its upcoming meeting, as policymakers monitor the potential inflationary impact of new tariffs.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has softened his tone towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell following a historic visit to the central bank’s headquarters. Trump reiterated that he has no intention of removing Powell, despite earlier speculation.

Interest rate futures currently reflect expectations of a rate cut totalling 43 basis points by the end of 2025, with the consensus forecast anticipating one cut in September and another in December.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD has completed an upward wave towards 1.1788 on the H4 chart. Today, we expect a downward impulse to 1.1723, followed by a potential rebound to 1.1755. The pair is likely to enter a consolidation range near the peak of this upward wave, with a possible breakout to the downside towards 1.1670 as the primary target. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero but is trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 timeframe, the pair is forming the initial structure of a downward wave targeting 1.1723. The first local target at 1.1733 has already been met. A corrective rise to 1.1755 may follow before another decline towards 1.1723. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD faces near-term pressure, but broader dollar weakness persists. Traders should monitor developments in trade policy and forthcoming Fed communications for directional cues, while technicals suggest further consolidation with a bearish bias.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

24 Jul

Zimbabwe’s lithium is in demand for making batteries: how to make sure benefits flow to the local economy

By Jabulani Shaba, University of Groningen

Zimbabwe has the largest lithium reserves on the African continent. Lithium has been mined since the colonial period in the 1950s. It’s a critical part of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries that are essential for the electric vehicle industry. Globally, the lithium-ion battery market is worth US$78.9 billion and is likely to amount to US$349.6 billion by 2034.

In 2021, there was a new lithium rush in Zimbabwe because of increased global demand for the mineral. Today, most of Zimbabwe’s lithium mines are owned by Chinese mining companies like Sinomine, Zhejiang Huayo Cobalt, Chengxin Lithium, Yahua and Canmax.

Lithium-ion batteries aren’t made in Zimbabwe. Instead, the country exports the mineral as a raw resource. Much of the value of Zimbabwe’s lithium – 480,000 metric tonnes mined since 2015 – is reaped by companies in China which make the raw lithium into batteries and other goods.

During the lithium rush, artisanal miners were involved in the lithium industry. They mined and sold raw ore. But their participation has recently slowed down because artisanal lithium mining is largely illegal. For this reason, official data reports haven’t been able to record how much lithium has been mined this way.

In 2022, the Zimbabwean government banned the export of raw lithium ore in an attempt to regulate the industry and curb artisanal lithium mining and illicit exports.

However, it was still permitted to export lithium concentrate (a powdered version of the raw mineral). But the government recently decided to ban the export of lithium concentrate from January 2027. It says the ban will improve the country’s efforts towards building facilities that add value to lithium, such as lithium refineries and battery production plants.

I research resource extraction and environmental change caused by mining in southern Africa.

If properly implemented and regulated, the new ban on exporting lithium concentrate could increase Zimbabwe’s self-sufficiency in lithium processing. It could even help the country achieve the middle-income economy it has set out in its Vision 2030, in which it aims to have a mining industry that generates US$12 billion a year in revenue. Zimbabwe has the world’s second largest reserves of platinum and huge supplies of chrome. Making goods locally from lithium would expand the mineral export revenue in addition to platinum and chrome.

However, becoming a middle-income nation is currently hampered by mining revenue leaking away – through losses from smuggling, tax evasion and others.

Also, environmental justice groups estimate that about 3,000 tonnes of raw lithium leaves the country daily. Between now and the time the 2027 ban on exporting lithium concentrate comes into effect, about 1.6 million additional tonnes of raw lithium could have been extracted and sent overseas. This means the government should not wait for 2027, but should implement the ban on lithium concentrate exports now.

The ban also doesn’t seem to be aimed at uplifting the livelihoods of communities who live near lithium mines. I describe these communities as living in sacrifice zones: they bear the brunt of lithium mining pollution and land grabs for mines. These vulnerable groups include women, children and artisanal lithium miners who have been disempowered by the just transition.

To use its lithium reserves to uplift the country, the government of Zimbabwe needs to establish local plans that place community development and improved livelihood of mining communities at the centre of mining. This could be done through pro-poor development policies that will create employment opportunities for local people in lithium mining frontiers. It could also include compelling mines to purchase locally made goods and fresh produce. Bringing artisanal miners into local value chains in gold, diamond and chrome mining would also help these informal miners become part of the formal mining economy.

The politics of lithium mining in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is one of the 10 biggest global lithium exporters (Chile, Argentina and Australia are others). In the first nine months of 2023 alone, it is estimated that about US$209 million worth of Zimbabwean lithium was sold.

The potential of lithium to stimulate economic development and attract international investments is unquestionable. The problem, however, over the last few years seems to be that the market isn’t regulated enough. Lithium mining has not created many jobs, and for the few that are employed, there’ve been gross human rights abuses, wage cuts, and a lack of investment in road infrastructure.

The politics of lithium mining are also shaped by networks of political elites. They are known as the lithium barons: people who engage in corrupt deals and smuggling.

Another problem has been the misplaced focus on artisanal miners. For example, the 2022 lithium ban mainly targeted artisanal lithium miners who were on the margins of the industry. It did not affect large-scale mining companies to the same extent. When the lithium ban was introduced, the market for processed lithium expanded and the demand for unprocessed lithium drastically shrank. This left artisanal miners with raw lithium and a shrinking market price.

What needs to happen next

Between now and 2027, lithium mining companies in Zimbabwe will try to extract as much lithium as possible before the ban comes into effect. This could deplete the lithium reserves in the country. Mining investors might look elsewhere.

The Zimbabwean government should take these steps to solve the problem:

1) The Zimbabwe government must ensure total monopoly of its lithium reserves. The over-reliance on Chinese investments in the lithium industry has set a bad precedent for what might happen with other minerals in future. It will take time for the government to undo this and set up its own monopoly. This resource sovereignty will be vital.

2) The government must consider how to govern minerals in a people-centred way. So far, lithium has not benefited ordinary Zimbabweans.

3) The resource communities where extraction deals are taking place must be consulted and brought into the conversation about how Zimbabwe can benefit from its lithium reserves. Communities in Zimbabwe like Buhera, Bikita, Mberengwa and Goromonzi have endured years of lithium mining pollution.

This includes their freshwater sources being contaminated by mines, toxic dust from blasting, mineworkers being exposed to hazardous and unsafe working conditions, displacement, and above all gross human rights abuses from multinational lithium mining companies.

4) The ban on the exports of lithium concentrates is crucial for stimulating local beneficiation and value addition. The government should implement this ban immediately rather than waiting for the 2027 timeline.

About the Author:

Jabulani Shaba, Postdoctoral researcher, University of Groningen

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

24 Jul

Taiwan Looks to Drones to Fight China

Source: Streetwise Reports (7/22/25)

Like with this island in East Asia, militaries around the world are increasingly using drones, a staple in their arsenal, in conflict or training. This trend could benefit companies in the sector, including New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR:NASDAQ), AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO:NASDAQ), AML3D Ltd. (AL3:ASX), and Firestorm Labs Inc.

The constant threat that China will invade Taiwan at any moment has the island continuing to prepare for war against the powerful country.

“Beijing’s Chinese Communist Party government claims Taiwan as its territory, though it has never ruled the island, and China’s rapid military buildup and coercive actions in the Taiwan Strait have led its neighbor to boost defense spending and order a series of high-profile weapons systems from the U.S.,” wrote Newsweek on July 15.

Last month Taiwan tested a first person-view kamikaze sea drone called Overkill, according to Firstpost. The government aims to build up to 25,000 of these units, equipped with artificial intelligence-enabled targeting and a precision camera.

Also, Taiwan just completed the largest version ever of its annual Han Kuan military exercise, reported Business Insider on July 14. The dual focus was on countering a Chinese invasion and, for the possibility such an event is successful, carrying out contingency plans.

“This comes as Taipei’s current government, known for resisting Beijing, grows increasingly concerned about emerging hostilities with mainland China,” the article explained. “Chinese leader Xi Jinping has pledged to reunify the island under Beijing’s control, and said his country would never renounce its right to use force to reach that goal.”

Other countries in the Asia-Pacific are preparing for an eventual China-Taiwan conflict, too. The Philippines, for example, is advancing a US$35 billion military modernization program, noted Newsweek. One of its several goals is to integrate into ground operations command and control systems, drones, and intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) tools, noted Inquirer.net.

As with the China-Taiwan tensions and other recent geopolitical conflicts around the globe, drones are increasingly taking center stage. For example, in the ongoing Myanmar conflict, both sides are now using drones, and so much so, the country ranks third, after Ukraine and Russia, for the number of drone events, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data in a July 1 article.

“This isn’t a tactical shift — but rather the start of a military revolution, tearing apart the old rules of war,” wrote Antonio Salinas and Jason P. LeVay, U.S. military analysts, in a May article. “What was once ‘no man’s land’ between trenches is now a drone kill zone, patrolled by flying munitions that loiter, observe, and strike with terrifying accuracy.”

All armed forces must adapt to this new reality, the authors asserted, or suffer total defeat in war.

Companies that could stand to benefit from drones dominating the battlefield, as well as increasing conflicts around the globe, include:

New Horizon Aircraft

Based in Ontario, Canada, New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR:NASDAQ) is an advanced aerospace engineering company doing business as Horizon Aircraft and developing hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing, or eVTOL, aircraft, according to its website.

Its prototype, the Cavorite X7, can take off vertically, but once in flight, its wing system reverts to that of a conventional airplane, providing the same speed, range, and operational utility. This hybrid eVTOL prototype is designed to fly in bad weather, including icy conditions, and it emits 30% less hydrocarbons than a traditional plane. Currently, the prototype is in a flight-testing phase. After completing this, Horizon intends to obtain certification of the Cavorite X7 and then scale production to meet demand from customers, including the military.

Recently, Horizon and ZeroAvia, a global hydrogen-electric powertrain company, announced their plan to collaboratively develop regional hydrogen-electric VTOL air travel, noted a news release.

Richard Ryan, analyst at Oak Ridge Financial Research, noted in his June 16 research report that in mid-May, Horizon achieved a full wing transition flight of Cavorite X7. A U.S. Executive Order signed subsequently intends to accelerate the safe commercialization of drone and other emerging technologies, such as eVTOL aircraft.

In light of these internal and external developments, Oak Ridge increased its target price on New Horizon by 45%. The new target implies a 44% return from HOVR’s share price at the close on July 18. Oak Ridge rates the company Buy.

D. Boral Capital Analyst Jesse Sobelson has a Buy rating on New Horizon and a target price suggesting 16.3% uplift, as noted in his June 9 research report. The consensus target price, according to Refinitiv, reflects 11.6% upside.

Refinitiv also reports that 14 strategic entities own 46.59% of New Horizon. The Top 3 are Canso Group with 16.23%, Robinson Family Ventures Inc. with 7.63% and William Brumder with 7.29%. Six institutional investors hold 0.34%. The rest is in retail.

New Horizon has 31.39 million (31.39M) outstanding shares and 16.76M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$53.98 million (US$53.98M). Its 52-week range is US$0.24–2.52 per share.

AIRO Group

AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO:NASDAQ) is an aerospace and defense company headquartered in Albuquerque, N.M., whose four divisions are drones, avionics, electric air mobility and training, notes the website. The drones segment develops, manufactures and sells drones. Military drones are sold through the Sky-Watch brand.

In recent news, AIRO concluded a highly specialized 90-day training support mission for Naval Special Warfare, “building on strong revenue growth in 2024 and H1/25 in its military training division,” as announced in a news release. The company provides elite training solutions to the U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps’ Joint Terminal Attack Controller program.

According to Refinitiv, the consensus target price on AIRO suggests 8% return from the company’s share price at the end of trading on July 18. TipRanks reports that three analysts cover AIRO, and all of them rate it Buy.

As for ownership, Refinitiv reports that nine strategic investors own 64.71% of AIRO. The Top 3 are AIRO Executive Chairman Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria with 19.46%, New Generation Aerospace LLC with 15.37% and Carter Aviation Technologies LLC with 11.1%. The rest is in retail.

AIRO has 26.17M outstanding shares and 9.24M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$688.13M. its 52-week range is US$12.90–38.07 per share.

AML3D Ltd.

AML3D Ltd. (AL3:ASX; AMLDF:OTCPK), based in Australia, specializes in large-scale metal three-dimensional (3D) printing using its patented wire additive manufacturing process that combines welding science, robotics automation, materials engineering, and proprietary software, the company’s website explains. The company manufactures and sells industrial metal 3D printers under the ARCEMY brand as well as large, high-performance metal components and structures, to defense, aerospace, maritime, manufacturing, mining, and oil and gas customers.

Earlier this month, AML3D received a letter of intent (LOI) from the U.S. Navy to collaborate on several key additive manufacturing initiatives. “The LOI focuses on AML3D’s ability to support materials characterization, parts manufacturing and supply of large scale ARCEMY metal 3D printing systems,” the news release noted.

Daniel Laing, Bell Potter analyst, and Abraham Akra, Shaw and Partners analyst, both cover AML3D. In a July 20 flash note, Bell Potter analyst Daniel Laing gave the company a Buy rating an US$0.35 valuation.

According to Refinitiv, 17 strategic entities own 16.58% of AML3D. The insider with the largest share is Andrew Sales, AML3D’s executive director and chief technology officer, with 4.84%.

Two institutions hold 10.76%. They are Netwealth Investments Ltd. with 5.78% and Regal Funds Management Pty. Ltd. with 4.97%. The rest is in retail.

AML3D has 542.14M outstanding shares and 451.77M free float traded shares. Its market cap is AU$112.54M. Its 52-week range is AU$0.105–0.325 per share.

Firestorm Labs Inc.

Firestorm Labs, a private company headquartered in San Diego, Calif., develops modular, open-architecture drones for rapid deployment in combat and expeditionary environments, according to its website. Its products integrate ISR, electronic warfare/signals intelligence and kinetic payload capabilities. Firestorm’s drones are mission adaptable and can be built any time, anywhere.

“Our unique ability to 3D print modular airframes on site dramatically reduces production timelines, costs and logistical constraints, giving the U.S. and allied forces the adaptive technology they urgently need in complex and contested operational environments,” Dan Magy, Firestorm chief executive officer, said in a July 16 news release.

This release announced that Firestorm secured US$47M in Series A funding. Lockheed Martin Ventures, Decisive Point, Washington Harbour Partners, Booz Allen Ventures, and other defense-focused investors participated in the round led by New Enterprise Associates.

Firestorm will use the capital to advance its additive-manufacturing platform, accelerate in-theater drone production, and scale xCell. xCell produces UAS systems and any 3d printed assets as required, but it’s primary purpose is not to house the above. It serves as a modular micro factory.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Firestorm.
Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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