Metals

Archive for Metals – Page 7

Precious Metals Miner Maintains Strong Gold-Silver Gains

While Andean Precious Metals Corp. (APM:TSX; ANPMF:OTCQX) has lower than expected second-quarter production results, the company is still a Buy, according to an Atrium Research note.

On July 18, 2025, Atrium Research analysts Ben Pirie and Nicholas Cortellucci maintained a Buy rating on Andean Precious Metals Corp. (APM:TSX; ANPMF:OTCQX) while raising the target price to CA$4.50 from CA$3.50, representing 29% upside from the current share price of CA$3.50.

The analysts cited rising gold and silver prices, multiple expansions across the sector, and strong operational momentum despite slightly weaker-than-expected second-quarter production results.

Andean Precious Metals Inc. reported second quarter 2025 operational results producing 24.3 thousand ounces of gold equivalent between its Golden Queen and San Bartolome assets, which was softer than analyst estimates primarily due to seasonality factors. The company sold 23.0 thousand ounces of gold equivalent during the quarter, declining year-over-year due to a shift production cadence.

Golden Queen production came in at 12.2 thousand ounces of gold equivalent, down 28% year-over-year, compared to Atrium’s estimate of 14.4 thousand ounces. This consisted of 11.2 thousand ounces of gold and 89 thousand ounces of silver, with 11.8 thousand ounces of gold equivalent sold, including 10.9 thousand ounces of gold and 87 thousand ounces of silver.

San Bartolome production totaled 12.1 thousand ounces of gold equivalent, declining 9% year-over-year compared to the analyst estimate of 12.2 thousand ounces. This comprised 0.7 thousand ounces of gold and 1.0 million ounces of silver, with 11.2 thousand ounces of gold equivalent sold, including 0.5 thousand ounces of gold and 1.0 million ounces of silver.

Seasonal Production Profile and Guidance

Management reiterated that 60% of annual production will be mined in the second half of the year and confirmed the company remains on track for the top end of guidance.

Pirie and Cortellucci noted they “have now adjusted our model to better reflect the seasonality at San Bart” following the variance between their estimates and reported results due to the 40% first half, 60% second half production split.

Updated Financial Projections and Commodity Assumptions

The analysts updated their commodity price assumptions to US$2,700 per ounce for gold and US$31 per ounce for silver, increased from previous assumptions of US$2,400 per ounce and US$30 per ounce, respectively, though remaining “conservatively below spot prices.”

The revised assumptions result in forecasted adjusted EBITDA of $98 million for 2025, with the company trading at 3.7x 2025 estimated EBITDA.

For second quarter financials scheduled for release on August 12, 2025, after market close, the analysts expect sales of US$64.7 million (down 7% year-over-year), adjusted EBITDA of US$17.0 million, representing a 26% margin, and operating cash flow of US$13.0 million or 20% of revenue.

Valuation Methodology and Target Price Increase

The analysts increased their target multiple from 6.0x to 6.5x for 2025 estimated operating cash flow due to “multiple expansion across gold and silver producers” and strong operational results. The CA$4.50 target price equates to 5x 2025 estimated EBITDA, 8x 2025 estimated earnings, and an 8% free cash flow yield.

Andean Precious Metals stock has risen 130% since the analysts’ initiation of coverage, driven by higher gold and silver prices and operational execution. The company exhibits a 1.3x beta to silver and a 2.4x beta to gold, “offering investors strong exposure to rising metal prices.”

Financial Position and Strategic Advantages

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with US$101 million in cash and US$70 million in debt, providing flexibility for growth through acquisitions and capital returns via share buybacks. Andean Precious Metals has demonstrated a track record of successful acquisitions, including Golden Queen and San Bartolome properties.

The company benefits from aligned management with CEO Alberto Morales bringing over 30 years of merger and acquisition and finance experience, while owning 53% of shares, and Eric Sprott holding 15%, creating strong alignment with shareholders.

Near-Term Catalysts and Outlook

Key catalysts include ongoing operational improvements, exploration results, new contracts, and debt paydown or refinancing expected in the fourth quarter 2025. The analysts emphasized that APM “remains set up to generate large cash flow in the quarter, growing into H2” based on the seasonal production profile and current commodity price environment.

The company’s conference call is scheduled for August 13, 2025, at 9:00 AM Eastern Time to discuss second quarter financial results and provide operational updates.

Important Disclosures:

This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Disclosures for Atrium Research, Andean Precious Metals, July 18, 2025

Analyst Certification Each authoring analyst of Atrium Research on this report certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the designated securities discussed (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the research, (iii) to the best of the authoring analyst’s knowledge, she/he is not in receipt of material non-public information about the issuer, (iv) the analyst does not own common shares, options, or warrants in the company under coverage, and (v) the analysts adhere to the CFA Institute guidelines for analyst independence. Atrium Research Ratings System BUY: The stock is expected to generate returns of over 20% over the next 24 months. HOLD: The stock is expected to generate returns of 0-20% over the next 24 months. SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative returns over the next 24 months. NOT RATED (N/R): Atrium does not provide research coverage on the respective company. RATING COVERED COMPANIES BUY 25 HOLD 0 SELL 0 About Atrium Research Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. For further information on our team, please visit https://www.atriumresearch.ca/team. General Information Atrium Research Corporation (ARC) has created and distributed this report. This report is based on information we considered reliable; we have not been provided with any material non-public information by the company (or companies) discussed in this report. We do not represent that this report is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such; further any information in this report is subject to change without any formal or type of notice provided. Investors should consider this report as only one factor in their investment decisions; this report is not intended as a replacement for investor’s independent judgment. ARC is not an IIROC registered dealer and does not offer investment-banking services to its clients. ARC (and its employees) do not own, trade or have a beneficial interest in the securities of the companies we provide research services for and does not serve as an officer or Director of the companies discussed in this report. ARC does not make a market in any securities. This report is not disseminated in connection with any distribution of securities and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. ARC does not make any warranties, expressed or implied, as to the results to be obtained from using this information and makes no express of implied warranties for particular use. Anyone using this report assumes full responsibility for whatever results they obtain. This does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account any financial or investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individuals. This report has not been prepared for any particular individual or institution. Recipients should consider whether any information in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances and should seek professional advice. Past performance is not a guide for future results, future returns are not guaranteed, and loss of original capital may occur. Neither ARC nor any person employed by ARC accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss resulting from any use of its research or the information it contains. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Such statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties such as competition, technology shifts, market demand and the company’s (and management’s) ability to correctly forecast financial estimates; please see the company’s MD&A “Risk Factors” Section for a more complete discussion of company specific risks for the company discussed in this report. ARC is receiving a cash compensation from Andean Precious Metals Corp. for 12-months of research coverage. This report was disseminated on behalf of Andean Precious Metals Corp. ARC retains full editorial control over its research content. ARC does not have investment banking relationships and does not expect to receive any investment banking driven income. 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Financial News Metals

21 Jul

Gold Starts the Week on the Upside as Investors Weigh Trump’s Tariff Threat

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of gold climbed to $3,350 per troy ounce on Monday, marking its second consecutive session of gains amid growing investor unease over Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that 1 August would serve as a strict deadline for implementing so-called ‘mirror duties’, though negotiations could extend beyond that date. He indicated that a base tariff of 10% might apply to smaller trading partners.

Earlier in July, Trump notified more than twenty trading partners of new tariff rates, with some items facing levies as high as 40%.

However, last week’s robust US economic data has tempered expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, thereby capping gold’s upside potential for now.

Investors are now focused on upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman, seeking fresh signals on the future direction of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is continuing its upward movement towards $3,384. Today, we anticipate the pair will reach this level before undergoing a corrective pullback to $3,333. The market is effectively forming a broad consolidation range around $3,344.

A breakout above this range could extend gains toward $3,494. Conversely, a downside breach may trigger a decline toward $3,235. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating around $3,333, having briefly declined to $3,310. The current structure suggests a fresh upward wave towards at least $3,390, followed by a retest of $3,333 from above. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold remains bullish in the short term, driven by tariff-related uncertainty, though expectations regarding Fed policy may limit further gains. Traders should monitor key resistance at $3,384 and support at $3,333 for directional cues.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

19 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq, Silver & Lean Hogs lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 15th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level now at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise of 31 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position registered 34,892 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 3,681 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number two in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -2 points this week. The overall speculator position was 59,448 net contracts this week with a small increase by 927 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings as the Lean Hogs speculator level resides at 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a rise of 12 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 82,803 net contracts this week with a change of -8,097 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position shows up next in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 points this week.

The speculator position was -873 net contracts this week with a drop by -3,971 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top scores in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 85 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week.

The speculator position was -228,618 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,794 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,486 net contracts this week with a dip of -50 contracts in the speculator bets. With the Bitcoin price hitting all-time highs, the weak speculator positioning indicates that speculators may be hedging contracts in the futures market to protect themselves from price declines.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the 5-Year speculator level is at just 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -5 points this week. The speculator position was -2,505,528 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,259 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -10 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -79,742 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,859 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -52,099 net contracts this week with a boost of 8,352 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -3,665 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 321 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year speculator position comes in as the next most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -379,116 net contracts this week with a jump of 29,162 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Metals Opinions

19 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (10,147 contracts), Palladium (1,153 contracts), Copper (1,120 contracts), Silver (927 contracts) and Steel (187 contracts) also showing positive weeks. The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Platinum (-1,472 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions

Gold led the market this week in terms of rising speculator positions, with the Gold price continuing to trade near its all-time high levels. This week, it closed a little below $3,360 and is still in an uptrend.

On the downside, Platinum was the only market to see a decline on the week, with a modest -1,472 contract decline. Platinum has also been a strong mover in the markets and is trading exceptionally higher since May, with a rise of almost 45% in just the past few months as the price has taken off.

Overall, the only metals market that still has a negative speculator level is Palladium at -3,581 contracts. Despite this bearish position, Palladium prices have also been on the rise, not as quite as sharp as the other metals but has started an upward move and risen to levels not seen since 2023.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (90 percent) and Palladium (78 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.3 percent)
Silver (90.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (89.2 percent)
Copper (71.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (70.1 percent)
Platinum (61.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (65.1 percent)
Palladium (77.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.9 percent)
Steel (73.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.3 percent)

Palladium & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (28 percent) and Copper (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-2 percent) joining as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.9 percent)
Silver (-1.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (6.9 percent)
Copper (15.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.9 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.8 percent)
Palladium (27.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.0 percent)
Steel (11.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 213,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	16.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	72.8	4.3
– Net Position:	213,115	-250,688	37,573
– Gross Longs:	270,227	75,989	56,976
– Gross Shorts:	57,112	326,677	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	32.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-10.8	15.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	20.7	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	67.1	7.1
– Net Position:	59,448	-79,648	20,200
– Gross Longs:	85,022	35,466	32,421
– Gross Shorts:	25,574	115,114	12,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.3	6.9	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-0.6	8.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	28.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	46.9	6.5
– Net Position:	40,724	-42,025	1,301
– Gross Longs:	75,423	63,262	15,789
– Gross Shorts:	34,699	105,287	14,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	34.2	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-12.9	-9.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	21.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	46.3	7.2
– Net Position:	19,302	-22,849	3,547
– Gross Longs:	55,186	19,611	10,187
– Gross Shorts:	35,884	42,460	6,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	41.7	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	0.9	4.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	35.0	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	22.9	9.4
– Net Position:	-3,581	2,402	1,179
– Gross Longs:	8,344	6,945	3,042
– Gross Shorts:	11,925	4,543	1,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	15.6	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.9	-31.3	17.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	68.9	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	71.4	0.7
– Net Position:	438	-670	232
– Gross Longs:	6,700	18,299	427
– Gross Shorts:	6,262	18,969	195
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	26.8	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-12.1	15.1

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COT Updates Financial News Metals

18 Jul

Gold Ends the Week in Decline

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold remained below $3,340 per ounce this week, on track to close in negative territory for the first time in three weeks. The downward pressure followed stronger-than-expected US economic data, which reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

June’s retail sales significantly outperformed forecasts, while initial jobless claims dropped to a three-month low – further evidence of the US economy’s resilience despite ongoing trade tensions.

In response, Adriana Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, suggested that maintaining the current interest rate in the near term would be prudent. Meanwhile, Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, still anticipates two rate cuts before year-end.

Gold continues to benefit from demand for defensive assets amid escalating trade and geopolitical risks. Former US President Donald Trump has announced plans to notify more than 150 trading partners of impending tariffs, heightening uncertainty in global trade.

Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions worldwide reinforce gold’s appeal as a hedge against instability, thereby ensuring its role as a key tool for wealth preservation.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating around $3,344 on the H4 chart, with the current range extending downward to $3,312. Today, prices have retested $3,344, and we anticipate further consolidation near this level.

Bullish scenario: a breakout above $3,344 could trigger an upward wave towards $3,384
Bearish scenario: a downward breakout may lead to a decline towards $3,235

The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market completed a decline wave to $3,310 before rebounding to $3,344, effectively returning to the consolidation range’s midpoint. Currently, trading lacks a clear directional bias, with equal potential for further gains or losses.

Upside potential: a breakout above $3,344 may extend gains towards $3,384
Downside risk: a drop below the range could see a downward wave towards $3,235

The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line has risen from 20 and is now trending upward towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold faces short-term bearish pressure from robust US economic data, but long-term support persists due to trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks. Traders should monitor key technical levels for breakout opportunities in either direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

15 Jul

Gold Holds Steady but Could Rise on Tariff Developments

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of gold remains stable at $3,354 per troy ounce this Tuesday, recovering some of the previous day’s losses. Market attention remains firmly fixed on US trade policy developments.

President Donald Trump has formally notified leaders from 25 countries of new tariffs, including a 30% levy on imports from the EU and Mexico, set to take effect on 1 August. Trump warned that nations responding with retaliatory measures could face even stricter US restrictions, though he left room for further negotiations before the tariffs are imposed.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which may offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps regarding interest rates.

While physical gold demand remains steady, central bank purchases continue to provide strong strategic support for prices. Meanwhile, the US dollar’s trajectory is having little immediate impact on gold’s movements.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD broke above the 3,340 level, hitting its local target of 3,373. Today, the market has seen a technical pullback to 3,340 (testing from above) before initiating a new upward wave towards 3,400. Once this wave concludes, we anticipate a corrective retracement to 3,340, followed by a potential further rise to 3,434. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the correction to 3,340 has completed, and the next growth wave towards 3,400 is underway. Today, we expect an advance to 3,370, after which a brief consolidation phase may form. A breakout above this range would reinforce bullish momentum towards 3,400. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line above 50 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on trade policy shifts and US economic data, while technical indicators suggest further upside potential after consolidation.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

10 Jul

Does Gold Have Much Farther To Run?

Source: Clive Maund (7/10/25)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares his thoughts on where he believes gold is headed.

Gold has made impressive gains so far this year, but when it spiked up to touch $3500 in the middle of April it become heavily overbought which is why it then went into a rectangular consolidation pattern that has given time for the overbought condition to fully unwind, as shown by the MACD indicator on its 6-month chart below, and has also allowed its moving averages to catch up, especially the 50-day which has now fully closed the gap with the price.

Because there is still a considerable gap with the 200-day it means that there is room for the price to break down from the Rectangle and correct back towards or to this average. In attempting to weigh the probability of this happening versus the price instead breaking out upside from the Rectangle, we need to inspect the volume pattern and volume indicators, which normally provide valuable clues in a situation like this.

However, volume and volume indicators are no longer provided by Stockcharts for the metals but we can get around this problem by using a chart for the same time period for reliable gold proxy SPDR Gold Shares, whose chart is almost identical, which does show volume and volume indicators.

So, on the 6-month chart for SPDR Gold Shares, we see that, while the volume pattern is a little hard to decipher, the Accumulation line has continued to trend higher from the April peak as the price has tracked sideways and has even made new highs in recent days.

This is bullish and implies that, rather than breaking lower into a correction, GLD and thus gold itself will instead break higher into a new upleg. If it does break lower a likely scenario is that a short, sharp drop is followed by a rapid reversal to the upside.

Zooming out now to look at gold on a longer-term 6-year log scale chart we see that it broke out early last year from a big trading range to commence a powerful uptrend — an uptrend that remains very much in force, with the price still well above the lower rail of the channel — even if it broke down from the Rectangle shown on the chart above and dropped to the $3100 level it would not violate this channel.

On this chart, we can better see just how overbought gold got last April, hence the trading range that has since formed that we looked at above.

Zooming out again via a very long-term log-scale chart going all the way back to the start of the millennium, i.e., to the year 2000, affords us an overall Big Picture perspective.

This chart makes clear that the breakout early last year from the large trading range that started to form in the middle of 2020 actually marked the breakout from the Handle of a gigantic Cup & Handle continuation pattern that started to form as far back as 2012.

This is a truly enormous consolidation pattern that certainly has the capability to support a correspondingly big bull market and as we are only about 16 months into this major new bull market, it clearly has much further to run.

In conclusion, we are looking for a breakout from the current rectangular trading range that has formed from April into another major upleg. If gold should instead break down from this range and correct back towards or to its rising 200-day moving average and the lower rail of its uptrend channel, it should then reverse back to the upside into a vigorous uptrend.

Volume indicators are suggesting that the former scenario — a breakout into another upleg from the trading range without any further corrective action first — is more likely to prevail.

Important Disclosures:

Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The quoted article represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be only be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Metals Opinions

09 Jul

Gold Drops Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Forecasts Shift

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, extending losses after a 1% decline the previous day. The downward pressure stemmed from the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, which partially offset concerns over escalating trade tensions.

US President Donald Trump dismissed any further delays to tariff hikes set for 1 August, announcing additional aggressive measures. These include a 50% duty on copper imports, potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and a 10% levy on goods from BRICS nations.

Another key factor weighing on gold was the neutral Fed outlook regarding a rate cut in July. Last week’s strong US jobs report alleviated fears of an economic slowdown, reducing expectations of imminent monetary easing.

The new tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, potentially limiting the Fed’s room for future rate reductions.

Investors are now awaiting the June FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, for further clues on the central bank’s policy direction.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is forming the fifth wave of a downward structure, targeting 3,233. Upon completion, a corrective wave towards 3,344 may follow before a potential resumption of declines to 3,121. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has established a downward wave to 3,286, followed by a tight consolidation range near 3,296. Today, we anticipate a drop to 3,282, followed by a retest of 3,296 (from below). A breakout below this range could extend losses towards 3,247 – a near-term target. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line sitting below 50 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid shifting Fed expectations and trade uncertainties. A bearish technical structure suggests further downside potential unless key support levels hold.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

09 Jul

US Copper hits records on Trump’s 50% tariff threat

By ForexTime

US copper hits fresh all-time highs
Trump announces 50% tariffs on copper imports
Prices firmly bullish on D1, but RSI overbought

Copper futures in New York surged to records on Tuesday after Trump announced a higher-than-expected 50% tariff on copper imports.

Prices jumped as high as $5.818, pushing 2025 gains to more than 36%.

Note: FXTM Copper tracks Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s COMEX division.

The prospect of steep tariffs may fuel more buying of copper before the levies officially come into effect. However, no date has been confirmed yet.

Still, this development could spark major supply-chain ripples through global metal markets. This is already being reflected in LME copper, which has dropped as much as 2% before later rebounding.

Note: LME (London Metal Exchange) copper serves as a global benchmark for copper prices.

Copper prices are firmly bullish, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is heavily overbought.

BULLISH – Should $5.4 prove to be reliable support, prices may push back toward the all-time high at $5.8183 and the next psychological level at $6.0.
BEARISH – Weakness below $5.4 could trigger a decline back toward $5.12.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions

08 Jul

Gold: From Ancient Treasures to Tomorrow’s Wealth Standard

Source: Brian Hicks (7/7/25)

Brian Hicks of Wealth Daily shares his thoughts on gold’s importance and how he believes NatGold Digital Ltd. represents a great opportunity to capitalize on gold.

Throughout human history, great societies have constructed their wealth upon golden foundations — from Roman vaults and imperial Chinese treasuries to Spanish vessels during the golden age of exploration.

In our modern era, gold transcends mere ornaments or ingots; it represents global power dynamics, international reserve banking, and a stabilizing force against currency uncertainty. Within this unfolding narrative, my bold projection — $16,402 per ounce — reflects both historical patterns and calculated foresight.

Let me explain why precious metal markets are poised for an unprecedented upward trajectory, examining the evidence. . .

Financial Titan’s Resource Stockpiling

Investment legend Ray Dalio, who established Bridgewater Associates, consistently advocates for gold as protection against monetary devaluation and institutional vulnerabilities. His Bridgewater funds recently expanded physical gold holdings substantially, directing $319 million during the year’s first quarter alone.

His reasoning stems from historical understanding: tracking gold’s evolution. Dalio’s perspective aligns perfectly with our analysis: Gold’s thousand-year journey now intersects with dollar weakness, mounting international liabilities, and transforming global hierarchies. His guiding principle resonates: Gold exists “independent of any one nation’s economy.”

Wealthy Investors Securing Mining Interests

This precious metal pursuit extends beyond major investment firms. Ultra-wealthy individuals are claiming their stakes.

John Paulson — renowned from the 2008 financial meltdown — anticipates $5,000 gold within three years. He’s invested $1 billion into Alaska’s Donlin Gold venture, targeting one of Earth’s richest undeveloped reserves. His analysis suggests that central banking institutions pivoting from traditional currencies drives this movement.
Thomas Kaplan — mining entrepreneur and Donlin participant through NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG:TSX; NG:NYSE.MKT) — supports this optimistic outlook. His Kaplan Doctrine advises investing in premium, expandable deposits within secure jurisdictions. This pattern reveals a broader shift: Financial elites transitioning from passive bullion ownership to enhanced exposure via mining operations.

I’m thoroughly convinced my $16,402 price target isn’t mere speculation — it’s a calculated strategy.

Reserve Banks: Contemporary Gold Guardians

National reserve institutions propel gold’s market ascension. A January 2025 HSBC survey spanning 72 central banks discovered over one-third planned to boost gold reserves — with none indicating reductions.

Bloomberg confirms: “Central banks will keep buying gold in a push to diversify away from paper currencies amid political and economic upheaval.”

BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) spearhead this accumulation. Russia has amassed reserves since its 2022 asset confiscation — a cautionary lesson about traditional currency risks. China and India, culturally connected to gold, have expanded both national reserves and domestic bullion demand. As one market observer noted, gold increasingly serves as the “de-dollarization tool” against Western financial influence.

BRICS Alliance and Gold-Centered Economic Systems

The BRICS coalition represents more than trade partnerships and political alignment — it signals monetary strategy evolution. India, China, Russia, and additional members explore de-dollarized trade settlements, potentially incorporating gold-backed frameworks. While a formal “gold-based currency” partnership remains aspirational, the momentum grows undeniably.

BRICS participants actively expand gold reserves for financial security. A popular phrase circulates among their strategists: “When U.S. paper whispers, BRICS gold roars.” As international power structures evolve, gold assumes a transformative role in global finance.

The Weakening Foundation: Diminishing American Currency

The inverse relationship between gold and dollar values follows predictable patterns — yet accelerates now. The dollar confronts:

Exploding federal obligations (approaching 140% of GDP)
Persistent government shortfalls
Federal Reserve independence challenges, heightening inflation worries
Recurring international commerce disputes, undermining dollar confidence

These circumstances create ideal conditions for gold’s ascendancy. Our $16,402 forecast depends on continued dollar deterioration — a narrative seemingly shared by Dalio, Paulson, and monetary authorities worldwide.

Eastern Hemisphere’s Consumer Gold Enthusiasm

Asia — the global gold epicenter — maintains impressive momentum. Singapore Bullion Market Association reporting emphasizes regional consumer appetite. Yet our pathway toward $16,402 isn’t fantasy—it’s a narrative where:

Our $16,402 projection captures gold’s multifaceted convergence, representing more than mere valuation but fundamental significance. Amid currency vulnerability and global transformation, gold transcends simple hedging — it embodies historical continuity.

Now, considering gold’s trajectory toward $16,402 per ounce (many analysts project even higher valuations), NatGold Digital Ltd. represents exceptional opportunity.

Consider this crucial point: As gold appreciates, its fundamental worth increases. However, extraction expenses remain relatively stable, meaning NatGold token values will skyrocket dramatically . . . alongside your investment returns.

Let me elaborate…

How NatGold Tokens Enable Ownership Before Wall Street’s Discovery

Imagine obtaining shares in America’s subterranean gold wealth — before extraction begins. Imagine preceding Wall Street, exchange listings, and media coverage. And imagine this investment representing not just precious metal . . . but American prosperity itself.

This embodies NatGold Tokens — pioneering blockchain-secured gold certificates directly linked to verified, untouched, domestic gold deposits within American borders. This isn’t conventional stock ownership, exchange-traded funds, or another digital currency. It represents digital gold’s evolutionary leap — and following recent American economic policy shifts, could soon become central to national financial strategy.

Presidential Initiative: Establishing $12 Trillion National Investment Fund

Earlier this year, Executive Order 14241 received presidential authorization, enabling development across 640 million federal acres containing approximately $100 trillion in untapped mineral resources.

This encompasses substantial copper, uranium, rare earth elements, and crucially: gold reserves.

The presidential vision?

Creating an American Sovereign Wealth Fund utilizing tokenized natural assets — finally monetizing underground national treasures without decades-long permitting delays.

Simply stated, America is beginning to digitize its inherent wealth, with NatGold pioneering this transformation.

Digitizing Inaccessible Resources: Major Deposits Nationwide

For generations, America has possessed some earth’s most valuable — yet unavailable — gold deposits.

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.’s (NDM:TSX; NAK:NYSE.MKT) Pebble Creek (Alaska) — Among the world’s largest undeveloped gold-copper resources, delayed through environmental regulatory challenges.
Nova Gold Resources Inc.’s (NG:NYSE) Donlin Gold (Alaska) — Contains over 39 million gold ounces, with regulatory hurdles preventing development across decades.
Ruth, Nevada — Premium gold concentration zone with billions in buried assets, largely abandoned through outdated extraction regulations.

These represent merely several “stranded resources” NatGold aims to unlock, not through physical extraction but digital tokenization. Each NatGold Token is supported by an authentic geological assessment verified through NI 43-101 protocols, providing token holders with a legal interest in these assets. This represents gold ownership without equipment, permits, or litigation, and zero environmental impact.

Gold: Returning as American Monetary Foundation

Since 1971, American currency has operated independently, without gold backing. Yet historical patterns often circle back. With global debt expansion, persistent inflation, and competing economies like BRICS planning gold-backed currencies, America quietly reintroduces gold into economic discussions.

Presidential conversations have included potential new gold standards — utilizing blockchain technology. Consequently, gold ownership becomes not merely prudent, but potentially fundamental to the American fiscal framework. Through NatGold Tokens, everyday investors participate before institutional recognition.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of NatGold Digital Ltd.
Brian Hicks: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: NatGold Digital Ltd. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Metals Opinions

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