Archive for Metals – Page 8

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets up higher for 5th time in 6 weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a rise of 13,454 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-16,661 contracts), Silver (-8,749 contracts), Platinum (-3,906 contracts), Steel (-1,265 contracts) and with Palladium (-482 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Gold Speculator Bets rose for 5th time in 6 weeks

Gold speculator bets rose this week for the fifth time out of the last six weeks, and for the ninth time out of the last 12 weeks. The gold speculator bets have now been over +200,000 contracts in these last six weeks after a cool off in bets from April to June that saw just one week over +200,000 speculator positions.

The gold price was up 1.25% this week, while being up only two percent over the last 30 days and higher by just under nine percent over the last 90 days.

Elsewhere, silver was the highest mover on the week with a gain of almost 4%. Platinum followed with a gain over 2%. Platinum has been up by over 40% in the last 90 days. Copper came in at just below 1% for gains this week, while Steel fell 0.70% and Palladium took a big hit by almost 7% on the week, even though Palladium is up 20% in the last 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (87 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (70 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (70.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (65.1 percent)
Silver (79.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (90.3 percent)
Copper (52.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (68.0 percent)
Platinum (55.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.6 percent)
Palladium (86.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.6 percent)
Steel (64.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.8 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (16 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-20 percent) and Silver (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (16.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.7 percent)
Silver (-15.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.7 percent)
Copper (-8.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.6 percent)
Platinum (-20.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-6.3 percent)
Palladium (16.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.5 percent)
Steel (6.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 237,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 223,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.0	16.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	76.6	4.3
– Net Position:	237,050	-270,146	33,096
– Gross Longs:	292,194	74,075	52,597
– Gross Shorts:	55,144	344,221	19,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	25.1	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-14.3	-8.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.2	23.2	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	67.9	5.9
– Net Position:	50,658	-72,228	21,570
– Gross Longs:	71,234	37,347	31,007
– Gross Shorts:	20,576	109,575	9,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	15.1	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	11.3	9.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 20,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,347 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	33.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	49.8	4.1
– Net Position:	20,686	-32,762	12,076
– Gross Longs:	54,929	65,903	20,148
– Gross Shorts:	34,243	98,665	8,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	42.2	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	-0.9	59.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	19.1	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	47.7	4.9
– Net Position:	16,662	-22,999	6,337
– Gross Longs:	46,067	15,414	10,274
– Gross Shorts:	29,405	38,413	3,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	41.4	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	15.9	16.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,335 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	34.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.5	30.5	6.4
– Net Position:	-2,335	701	1,634
– Gross Longs:	8,048	6,502	2,850
– Gross Shorts:	10,383	5,801	1,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	2.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-20.3	21.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -92 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	73.8	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	74.3	0.9
– Net Position:	-92	-101	193
– Gross Longs:	4,039	15,607	387
– Gross Shorts:	4,131	15,708	194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.0	36.2	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-7.1	6.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

06 Aug

Gold Holds Near Two-Week High

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Wednesday, the price of gold dipped to 3,375 USD per troy ounce but remained close to a two-week high, retaining most of its recent gains.

The market remains buoyed by demand for defensive assets amid expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy.

The previous day saw the release of US ISM data, which showed the services sector business activity index for July falling to 50.1 points – below forecasts. The figures indicated sluggish growth, slowing employment, and mounting price pressures. Earlier data also pointed to a weakening labour market and declining consumer spending.

These developments have bolstered expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as September, with markets now pricing in a 90% probability of such a move.

Further support for gold comes from new trade tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, alongside investor concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence following the resignation of Board of Governors member Lisa Kugler. Her departure paves the way for Trump to appoint a more accommodative successor.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is forming a broad consolidation range around 3,346 USD on the H4 chart. The market has corrected to 3,390 USD. Today, we assess the likelihood of a new downward wave developing towards 3,333 USD. A break below this level could extend the decline to a minimum of 3,255 USD. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero near recent highs but shows signs of an impending downturn.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a corrective structure to 3,390 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level, with a downward breakout likely to extend the decline towards 3,320 USD. A breach of this support could signal further downside momentum, potentially targeting 3,200 USD. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold remains resilient near recent highs, supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. However, technical indicators suggest potential near-term downside, with key support levels at 3,333 USD (H4) and 3,320 USD (H1) in focus.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

31 Jul

What’s Next For Gold?

Source: Adrian Day (7/29/25)

Global Analyst Adrian Day reviews initial results from Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS:TSX) and takes a look at gold and gold stocks.

Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS:TSX) reported royalty revenue lower than both the previous and the year-ago quarter, as well as below estimates. Attributable revenue fell CA$2.3 million from CA$15 million in the first quarter, largely due to weak iron ore royalties, which accounted for CA$1.7 million of the decline.

Base metals revenue also fell due mostly to the timing of deliveries; potash was also down due to maintenance downtime. Given the temporary nature of these issues and higher prices, we expect both segments to recovery this quarter. These three areas were also down relative to the year-ago quarter, with iron ore revenue falling from a particularly strong $4.1 million to $1.1million.

Overall, revenue fell from over $20 million in the year-ago quarter to $12.7 million last quarter. Renewable energy saw high revenue as projects ramp up. The near-term focus continues to be the disposition of Altius’ 1.5% royalty on Anglo’s Arthur Deposit, with a pro forma value, based on the sale of Orogen’s similar 1% royalty, of CA$515 million, or just over 40% of Altius’ market cap.

Altius remains a Buy based on its NAV and potential gains from the sale of its Arthur royalty (or more).

TOP PICKS this week, in addition to above, include Nestle SA (NESN:VX; NSRGY:OTC), Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE), Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ), and Fox River Resources Corp. (FOX:CSE).

THE U.S. DOLLAR After falling 11% in the first half, the worst first-half since 1973, the dollar is oversold; we should not expect another imminent sharp decline; markets don’t move in straight lines. However, a recovery may be slow and modest rather than any V-shaped rebound. Tariffs and other policies are making foreign investors reduce exposure to U.S. assets. When a foreigner buys, for example, U.S. stocks, bonds, or real estate, he must first convert his currency into dollars, boosting the dollar. A reduced appetite for U.S. assets, therefore, reduces demand for dollars. We are not forecasting a dollar collapse any time soon — other major currencies hardly represent fiscal rectitude — but at the margin, appetite for the Euro, British pound, yen, and commodity currencies (including the Canadian dollar, already up this year from 0.69 cents to 73) will increase, along with an increased demand for gold.

Gold Buying Trends and Stock Valuations

Central bank buying picked up in May, as gross sales declined meaningfully, the latest month for which data is available; though above multi-year levels, buying remains below the levels of 2023 and 2024. The People’s Bank of China added for the seventh straight month, after a pause last fall. Meanwhile, Chinese non-official buying, including inflows to China gold ETFs, has dwindled to almost nothingness, after surging earlier in the year. Global ETF inflows have picked up, however, the remain soft in the U.S. There were some inflows in the first three weeks of June, but then buying fell off again, with the largest ETF, GLD, seeing over $900 million in net outflows since June 24th. Commodity traders continue to be positive, but have reduced their positions all year (to little more than half of the February peak).

A record 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, while none expects a decrease, this according to a survey from the World Gold Council. Over 40% of respondents expected their own reserves to increase, and none a decrease. After another strong quarter of central bank buying, gold is now the second-largest reserve asset, surpassing the Euro.

Main Drivers of Gold Remain Intact

For now, the major driver of gold buying revolves around possible changes in the global monetary regime, most notably central bank diversification in the face of dollar weaponization. Nothing that has happened this year diminishes that drive. Given this, it makes sense that U.S. demand has been weak, since concerns about monetary regime changes are more muted. But a major and long-lasting change in that regime, with the U.S. dollar losing its status as the sole reserve currency, along with less willingness to hold dollars internationally, most assuredly will have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and investor sentiment (cf. Britain in the 1950s to 1970s, when the pound fell from being worth five dollars to par, before Margaret Thatcher rescued the country).

There have been other factors supporting gold, of course, as diverse as the Trump-Powell tiff and the Middle East. But we have yet to see the macroeconomic environment, the things that traditionally drive gold, turn in gold’s favor. The U.S. has been characterized by a strong economy, low and falling inflation, high interest rates (and positive real rates), and, until this year, a relatively strong dollar. This is precisely the opposite of the environment conducive to gold. All of this is changing, if slowly, and as the narrative shifts, U.S. interest in gold will increase.

Gold Stock Sentiment Remains Weak

Add to the economic environment the fact that the S&P continues to go up month after month (as does the so-called Magnificent 7, despite some individual names stumbling), means that investors do not see the need to buy gold stocks. After a minor flurry into gold miner ETFs in late May early June, the flows reversed, with the GDX seeing $570 million of outflows in the past month, over $3.4 billion for the year to date. The dichotomy between prices and flows has never been greater.

Generalist interest is even weaker. Almost 80% of investment advisors have been zero and 1% exposure to gold in accounts they manage (and I bet for most of them, it’s close to zero than to 1%). Non-gold mutual funds have virtually no exposure. A total of 322 of the largest funds holds just 35 gold stocks. Only three funds own GLD among their top 20 positions, four own Newmont, and one owns Barrick.

Crowded Trade? Anything But

Staggeringly and unbelievably, global fund managers think that gold is the “most crowded” trade, according to a survey from Bank of America, with 58% of managers choosing gold against 22% saying the Magnificent 7, and only 1% saying the U.S. two-year Treasury. The number selecting gold (in May, the latest month) was up on April, despite the flat gold price since then. This is a reflection of managers who missed the bull move, in my view.

S&P investors, of course, are already lagging, with not only gold stocks but gold itself beating the S&P over the past four-, three-, two- and one-year periods, as well as year to Source: Bloomberg Date, and increasingly handsomely so (with the XAU up over 50% this year against less than 8% for the S&P, including dividends). In the graph are gold (white), the XAU (blue) and the S&P (red) year to date.

Gold Stocks Remain Undervalued, as Value Increases

Oscar Wilde berated those who know the price of everything but the value of nothing. Certainly, the 50% plus increase in the XAU indices this year has led many to instinctively think that the gold stocks are expensive. But the stocks are still extremely undervalued.

As the price of gold moves up, from the low $1,600s less than three years ago, to today $3,350, the value of the gold in the ground moves up; the price-to-NAV has therefore not increased over that period. As the price of gold has moved up far more rapidly than the cost of mining, the margins have expanded and with it corporate cash flows increased; thus the price-to-cash flow multiples have declined.

So we see the gold-standard of mining companies, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE), trading in its lowest quartile of price-to-cash flow metric in 40 years; while Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX:TSX; B:NYSE), the #2 gold producer, is trading in the lowest decile of price-to-NAV in its history. Normally, when the price of the commodity goes up, we expect to see multiple expansion not contraction. Commodity prices are trading at 100-year lows relative to U.S. stocks. The same is true of mining stocks generally,

Sources: S&P Market Intelligence; Statista not only gold stocks; they are trading at significant 100-year lows, and less than 10% of their late-1960 relative valuation peaks.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Altius Minerals Corp., Franco-Nevada Corp., Fox Riv Res Corp., Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Barrick Mng Corp.
Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Adrian Day Disclosures

Adrian Day’s Global Analyst is distributed for $990 per year by Investment Consultants International, Ltd., P.O. Box 6644, Annapolis, MD 21401. (410) 224-8885. www.AdrianDayGlobalAnalyst.com. Publisher: Adrian Day. Owner: Investment Consultants International, Ltd. Staff may have positions in securities discussed herein. Adrian Day is also President of Global Strategic Management (GSM), a registered investment advisor, and a separate company from this service. In his capacity as GSM president, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein, and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. This is not a solicitation for GSM. Views herein are the editor’s opinion and not fact. All information is believed to be correct, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The owner and editor are not responsible for errors and omissions. © 2023. Adrian Day’s Global Analyst. Information and advice herein are intended purely for the subscriber’s own account. Under no circumstances may any part of a Global Analyst e-mail be copied or distributed without prior written permission of the editor. Given the nature of this service, we will pursue any violations aggressively.

Metals Opinions

28 Jul

Gold Declines as EU Strikes Trade Deal

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold held steady at $3,330 per troy ounce on Monday following three consecutive days of declines. The metal faced downward pressure after news emerged of a trade agreement between the US and the EU, dampening investor interest in safe-haven assets.

On Sunday, the US and EU reached a broad trade deal, which includes a 15% tariff on most European goods, alongside commitments to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in American industry. This agreement mirrors last week’s US–Japan trade pact in structure.

Traders are now bracing for a busy week of economic events, with the Federal Reserve meeting at the centre of attention. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, markets will scrutinise any signals about a potential rate cut in September.

Key US labour market data will also be in focus, including JOLTS reports, ADP employment figures, and the crucial nonfarm payrolls release. Equally significant will be the PCE price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – which will indicate whether price pressures are intensifying amid new tariffs.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The H4 chart shows XAU/USD forming a broad consolidation range around 3,375. After breaking downward today, the market reached its local downside target at 3,318. Following this, we anticipate a possible upward correction towards 3,375 (testing from below), before a renewed decline towards 3,312. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has achieved its local decline target at 3,318. Currently, an upward impulse is forming towards 3,349. A consolidation range near 3,346 may develop, with an upside breakout potentially extending gains to 3,375. Thereafter, a new downward wave towards 3,312 could emerge. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, as its signal line is above 50 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid shifting global trade dynamics, with technical indicators suggesting further volatility ahead. Traders should monitor key US data releases and signals from the Fed for directional cues.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

27 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets rise to highest since March

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (39,923 contracts) with Platinum (1,373 contracts), Palladium (1,281 contracts), Silver (1,172 contracts) and Steel (112 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Copper with a dip by -902 contracts.

Gold Speculator Bets rise to highest since March

The gold speculator position rose this week for a fourth consecutive week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks. This week’s boost by +39,923 contracts marked the highest one-week gain in over a year and brings the 10-week advance by speculator bets to over +91,000 contracts.

This boost in speculator bets for gold puts the current speculator net position, currently at +253,038 contracts, at the highest level in the past 18 weeks, dating back to March 18th.

Major metals prices this week were mixed

– Copper rose by over 3% for the week.
– Steel went higher by over 1.3%.
– Silver also saw just a small gain.
– Gold was down by -0.32%.
– Palladium and Platinum fell by almost -2% over the past week.