Metals

Archive for Metals – Page 6

Gold Undergoes Correction Amid Divergent Forces

Gold prices face continued pressure from a resilient US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive monetary policy stance. These headwinds have triggered a technical correction in the precious metal.

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and instability in the Middle East continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets, providing a buffer against more substantial price declines.

In the coming sessions, investor attention will focus on key inflation data and scheduled speeches from Fed officials, which are likely to provide fresh direction for the precious metal.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD broke below the 4,175 USD support level, reaching the initial corrective target at 4,004 USD. The market is currently forming a retracement towards 4,175 USD, testing this former support level from below. Following the completion of this pullback, another leg down is anticipated within the broader correction, with a subsequent target at 3,970 USD. The MACD indicator confirms this bearish near-term outlook: its signal line is pointing downward while the histogram remains entrenched in negative territory, indicating continued selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the instrument completed a downward wave to 4,004 USD before establishing a growth structure. The price is currently consolidating around 4,107 USD. An upward breakout from this range would likely propel prices toward 4,175 USD, retesting the previously breached support level. The Stochastic oscillator supports this short-term bullish scenario, with its signal line positioned above 50 and advancing toward 80, reflecting building upward momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains caught between monetary headwinds and geopolitical support. While the broader correction appears intact, the current bounce from 4,004 USD suggests potential for further near-term recovery toward 4,175 USD. However, this upward move is likely to present selling opportunities for a resumption of the downtrend towards 3,970 USD. Traders should monitor incoming US data and Fed commentary for catalysts that could determine whether this correction deepens or concludes.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Metals Opinions

16 Oct

Gold Extends Its Rally as Safe-Haven Demand Builds

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The gold market continues to attract strong inflows, underscoring its appeal as a premier defensive asset. Growing anxieties over a potential US government shutdown are fuelling investor nervousness, with Congress once again at a budget impasse. This political deadlock is prompting a flight to safety, benefiting traditional havens like gold and the Swiss franc.

Further pressure on the US dollar stems from the escalation of the trade war, as Donald Trump’s rhetoric grows increasingly assertive. Proposals for higher tariffs, a overhaul of import flows, and fresh threats against China are being factored into market expectations for future inflation and Federal Reserve policy.

Amid this backdrop, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has dipped below 4.2%, while the DXY dollar index struggles for direction. Markets are progressively pricing in a more dovish Fed stance by year-end, creating a solid fundamental base for gold.

Investors are increasingly turning to XAU/USD as a hedge against mounting political and economic uncertainty, viewing the metal as a reliable insurance policy.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, gold found strong support at 4,190 USD and is advancing towards an initial target of 4,266 USD. Upon reaching this level, a corrective pullback towards 4,100 USD is anticipated. Provided the broader bullish structure holds, this could establish a foundation for a subsequent upward wave, with potential targets at 4,300 – 4,400 USD. The MACD indicator corroborates this constructive outlook. Its signal line is firmly above zero and trending higher, confirming the current dominance of buyers.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the instrument decisively broke above the 4,190 USD resistance, consolidating around this level before extending its gains towards 4,266 USD. A period of profit-taking is expected here, likely triggering a retracement to retest 4,190 USD as support. A successful hold above this level could signal a resumption of the uptrend, targeting 4,300 – 4,400 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line positioned above 50 and advancing towards 80, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.

Conclusion

Gold’s rally is being driven by a powerful confluence of political uncertainty, trade war escalation, and shifting monetary policy expectations. While a short-term technical correction is likely as profits are taken, the fundamental and technical backdrop remains decidedly bullish.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Metals

09 Oct

Silver nears $50 per ounce mark. Oil prices rise amid inventory drawdowns

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) Index fell by 0.01% at the close of Wednesday. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.58%. The technological Nasdaq (US100) Index closed higher by 1.12%. The latest FOMC minutes showed that the majority of Federal Reserve officials noted the advisability of transitioning the federal funds rate to a more neutral level, as, in their view, the risks to employment had increased. However, according to the latest FOMC meeting minutes, the majority still emphasized that the risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside. Furthermore, a majority of participants deemed further policy easing likely for the remainder of the year, with about half of the officials expecting two more interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. Officials continued to state that they would weigh risks to both inflation and employment when considering their future actions.

AMD surged by 11.3% during the session and is up more than 40% since the start of the week as markets continued to price in the chipmaker’s deal with OpenAI, which marked over $1 trillion for the ChatGPT maker in a series of circular deals. Micron shares jumped 5.9%, while Nvidia, Oracle, and Amazon each rose by more than 2%. Cisco stock climbed 2% on the back of the release of a new artificial intelligence chip for data centers. Conversely, shares of defensive consumer companies and banks declined.

Stock markets in Europe rose yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.87%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 1.07%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.97%, and the UK FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.69% higher. The Frankfurt DAX Index reached an all-time high on Wednesday. Market sentiment was lifted by new EU trade measures and plans to limit steel imports, although weak data from Germany and political uncertainty in France capped gains. Industrial production in Germany fell by 4.3% in August, the sharpest decline since March 2022, far exceeding the expected drop of 1%.

WTI oil prices rose by 1.5% to $62.65 per barrel after EIA data showed a sharp inventory drawdown at the key Cushing, Oklahoma hub. Inventories there shrank by 763,000 barrels last week, the largest drop since June, while nationwide crude inventories grew more than expected but remained close to seasonal lows. The report also showed a decline in refined product inventories, suggesting strengthening demand. Nevertheless, price gains were limited by expectations of abundant global supply. OPEC+ continues to ramp up production, and US oil output is expected to hit a record high this year.

Silver gained over 3% on Wednesday, nearing the $50 per ounce mark, an all-time high, as the protracted US government shutdown amid heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Markets are also anticipating the US Federal Reserve to cut its rate by a quarter point this month and likely one more in December. Concurrently, strong physical demand from the solar energy and electronics sectors continued to support prices, with the Silver Institute projecting a global supply deficit in 2025 for the fifth consecutive year.

Asian markets mostly fell yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 0.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade yesterday, the Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.10%.

On Thursday, Chinese indices rose as mainland Chinese markets resumed trading after the long “Golden Week” holidays, during which a record 2.43 billion inter-regional passenger trips were recorded. Mining stocks led the gains after Beijing imposed export controls on rare-earth processing technology in a bid to solidify its dominance in the sector amid growing competition with the US.

The Australian dollar (AUD) climbed to around $0.660 on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, as higher inflation expectations strengthened the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance. Consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.8% in October 2025 from 4.7% in September, the highest since June, on fears that third-quarter inflation could top prognoses. This reinforces the Central Bank’s cautious position, which is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged after setting it at 3.6% in September.

On Thursday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) rose to $0.58, recovering from losses during the previous session when the Reserve Bank surprised markets with a larger-than-expected rate cut. On Wednesday, the Central Bank slashed the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022, citing concerns over the unsustainable state of the economy and leaving the door open for further easing. Markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the RBNZ’s next meeting in November, and see roughly even odds that rates could fall to 2.0% by next year.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,753.72 +39.13 (+0.58%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,601.78 −1.20 (−0.01%)

DAX (DE40) 24,597.13 +211.35 (+0.87%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,548.87 +65.29 (+0.69%)

USD Index 98.85 +0.28 (+0.28%)

News feed for: 2025.10.09

German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB Monetary Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) (Tentative);
US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Metals

06 Oct

Gold Surges 50% Year-to-Date with Further Gains Expected

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold soared to a fresh record high on Monday, breaching 3,923 USD per ounce as demand for safe-haven assets intensified. The protracted US government shutdown continues to be a primary catalyst for the rally.

The budget crisis has extended into the new week following a failed Senate vote on Friday, leading to prolonged delays in key macroeconomic data publications—including the critical September non-farm payrolls report. In the absence of official statistics, investors are relying on indirect indicators that suggest a gradual softening of the US labour market.

With a vacuum in fresh economic data, market attention has turned to commentary from Federal Reserve officials for any clarity on the future path of monetary policy.

Since the start of the year, gold has appreciated by nearly 50%. This remarkable rally has been driven by a confluence of factors: persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of a protracted Fed easing cycle, and consistent investment inflows into gold-backed ETFs.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD found strong support at the 3,820 USD level and is now advancing within a growth wave targeting 4,000 USD. This is considered a local target. Upon reaching it, a corrective pullback towards 3,820 USD is anticipated. Following this correction, the formation of another upward wave targeting 4,170 USD is expected. This bullish outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero and pointing sharply upward.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair breaking above the 3,896 USD resistance, subsequently forming a consolidation range around this level. Today’s upside breakout has confirmed the continuation of the bullish impulse towards 3,972 USD. A correction back to 3,896 USD is likely upon reaching this target, after which a resumption of the uptrend towards 4,000 USD is expected. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, with its signal line currently above 80 and poised to decline towards 50, indicating potential for a short-term pullback before further gains.

Conclusion

Gold’s record-breaking rally shows no signs of abating, underpinned by a supportive macroeconomic backdrop and strong technical momentum. While a short-term correction is increasingly likely as the market becomes overbought, the broader bullish trend remains firmly intact, with clear technical targets projecting further gains ahead.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Metals

24 Sep

Gold Holds Near Record Highs as Demand Sustains Rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold traded around 3,760 USD per ounce on Wednesday, hovering near the record high established the previous day. The market continued to digest commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell.

Powell acknowledged the Fed’s challenging position, citing a combination of accelerating inflation and sluggish employment growth, which together heighten risks for the labour market. While he expressed satisfaction with the current policy trajectory, he left the door open for further interest rate cuts if warranted by economic conditions.

Market pricing in futures contracts indicates expectations for two additional 25-basis-point cuts this year, potentially in October and December. Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the August PCE index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – as well as scheduled speeches from other Fed officials.

Geopolitical tensions are providing additional support for the precious metal. NATO’s recent warning that it is prepared to deploy all necessary measures, both military and non-military, in its defence has bolstered gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 3,734 USD before breaking upwards to complete an upward move towards 3,790 USD. Following a correction to 3,750 USD, a new upward impulse has begun. The immediate focus is now on a break above the 3,790 USD level, which could open the path for a continuation towards 3,840 USD, with a longer-term prospect of reaching 3,878 USD. This bullish scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is well above the zero line and trending higher.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair consolidating around 3,717 USD before initiating an upward move targeting 3,808 USD. Upon reaching this level, a corrective pullback towards 3,730 USD is possible. Following this, a resumption of the uptrend towards at least 3,820 USD is anticipated. This outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold remains well-supported fundamentally by a dovish-leaning Fed and geopolitical risks, while the technical picture suggests the bullish momentum is intact. A sustained break above the immediate resistance could trigger the next leg higher towards fresh record levels.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Metals

21 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (4,670 contracts) with Copper (3,107 contracts) and Platinum (847 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-2,399 contracts), Palladium (-270 contracts) and with Steel (-28 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Silver leads Metals Price Changes this week

Silver was the leader in this week’s metals market’s price performance changes. Silver was up by 1.8% over the last 5 days and has been higher by 12.28% over the past 30 days, while also surging by 31.72% over the past 90 days.

Gold comes in next with a gain of 1.09% on the week. Gold has risen by 8.31% in the past 30 days and is up by 13.74% over the past 90 days. Platinum also rose modestly this week with a 0.45% gain. Platinum has seen its price shoot up by 5.44% in the past 30 days and by a whopping 42.27% in the past 90 days.

Copper dipped by -0.28% this week. Copper has been up by approximately 4% in the past 30 days, but over the past 90 days copper has fallen by -1.24%. Steel dropped this week by -3.59%. However, Steel has been higher by over 3% in the past 30 days and is up by approximately 19% in the past 90 days.

Palladium came in as the biggest loser this week with a -5.39% decline. Palladium, however, has been higher by over 2% in the past 30 days and has increased by approximately 20% over the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (81 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Platinum (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (81.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (79.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (82.3 percent)
Copper (61.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (58.6 percent)
Platinum (49.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (46.9 percent)
Palladium (74.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.4 percent)
Steel (59.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (60.0 percent)

Gold & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) and Copper (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-13 percent) and Platinum (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.5 percent)
Silver (1.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.3 percent)
Copper (9.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.4 percent)
Platinum (-3.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-15.6 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.2 percent)
Steel (0.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 266,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.3	15.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	73.7	4.8
– Net Position:	266,410	-302,371	35,961
– Gross Longs:	326,778	77,867	60,872
– Gross Shorts:	60,368	380,238	24,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.4	13.5	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-11.6	9.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 51,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	26.5	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	70.3	7.7
– Net Position:	51,538	-71,389	19,851
– Gross Longs:	71,623	43,118	32,407
– Gross Shorts:	20,085	114,507	12,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	18.1	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.0	-8.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	31.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	49.1	4.3
– Net Position:	30,348	-38,424	8,076
– Gross Longs:	69,370	69,990	17,621
– Gross Shorts:	39,022	108,414	9,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.5	37.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-4.9	-24.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	21.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	42.3	4.9
– Net Position:	15,203	-21,087	5,884
– Gross Longs:	54,061	21,326	10,757
– Gross Shorts:	38,858	42,413	4,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	52.1	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	4.9	-5.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	38.6	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.6	27.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-4,012	2,140	1,872
– Gross Longs:	8,024	7,660	3,113
– Gross Shorts:	12,036	5,520	1,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	13.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	11.0	8.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -84 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -28 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	73.1	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	73.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-84	-74	158
– Gross Longs:	4,491	15,641	442
– Gross Shorts:	4,575	15,715	284
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	40.4	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	0.2	-4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

15 Sep

Gold in Turmoil: All Eyes on the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold retreated below 3,630 USD per ounce on Monday, pulling back from last week’s record highs as investors locked in profits ahead of a pivotal US Federal Reserve policy decision.

Markets are widely anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut this week, driven by mounting evidence of labour market softness. Expectations of further easing in 2025 are also being priced in.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, investor attention will focus on key US data releases, including retail sales and industrial production, which may offer additional clues about the health of the economy.

In a move that has raised eyebrows, the Trump administration on Sunday appealed to a federal court to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, heightening concerns over the central bank’s independence.

Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring US-China trade negotiations, which resume in Madrid on Tuesday for a second day of talks.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 3,486 USD before breaking upward to complete an impulsive move towards 3,674 USD. The market is now showing signs of exhaustion, and a decline towards 3,591 USD appears likely. Currently, price action suggests the formation of a new consolidation range around 3,636 USD. A break below this range could extend the correction toward 3,486 USD, while an upward breakout might see a retest of 3,700 USD before any significant reversal. The MACD indicator supports this corrective outlook: the signal line remains above zero but has diverged from the histogram, indicating weakening momentum and potential downside.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair formed a consolidation range around 3,654 USD before breaking downward to complete the first leg of a correction at 3,611 USD. Following a retracement to 3,647 USD, the market appears set to resume its decline towards 3,593 USD. A break below this level could open the door to a deeper drop toward 3,486 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this bearish near-term view, with its signal line hovering above 80 and poised to turn lower towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold is consolidating near all-time highs as traders await clarity from the Fed. While the broader bullish trend remains supported by expectations of monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainty, a short-term correction is underway. The Fed’s tone – along with developments in US-China talks and political pressure on the Fed – will be crucial in determining whether this pullback deepens or becomes a buying opportunity.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Metals

13 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets rise to 29-Week High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (12,210 contracts) with Copper (1,583 contracts) and Palladium (306 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-2,642 contracts), Silver (-1,986 contracts) and Steel (-383 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets rise to 29-Week High

Gold speculator bets were up for the third straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the last 11 weeks. Gold speculator bets have now risen by almost +50,000 contracts just in the last two weeks alone.

This boost in speculator bets has pushed the current speculator net position to a total of +261,740 net contracts. This marks the highest level in 29 weeks, dating back to February 18th of 2025. The gold speculator position has now been above the +200,000 contract level for 11 consecutive weeks.

Palladium Leads the Metals Price Performance

The metals market’s performance this week was led by Palladium, which jumped by over 9%. Palladium has now been up by roughly 25% over the past 90 days.

Silver was up by 3% this week, and has now been up by 15% over the past 30 days, while racing higher by almost 30% in the past 90 days.

Copper came in third with a 2.51% gain on the week. Copper is the only metal that has been down over the last 90 days, with a -2.05% decrease.

Platinum rose this week by 1.59%, and has been up by a significant 40.25% over the past 90 days. Gold rose by 1.34% this week, and has been up by roughly 9% in the past 90 days.

Steel was the only metal to see a weekly decline. Steel dropped by -4.65%, although Steel has been up by roughly 7% in the past 30 days, and has been higher by 19.53% over the last 90 days.