InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair declined to 1.1642 on Wednesday, with investor attention firmly fixed on the Federal Reserve’s impending policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

Market participants will scrutinise the subsequent commentary from Chair Jerome Powell for any signals regarding the path for further policy easing. A further rate cut in December is already partially priced into the market.

Additional attention is being drawn to the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, at which the parties may approve a framework trade agreement. The document provides for the suspension of new US tariffs and Chinese restrictions on exports of rare earth metals.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to weaken against the Japanese yen. This follows discussions between Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in which they addressed recent volatility in the currency markets. Bessent’s call for a “prudent monetary policy” was interpreted by investors as a veiled criticism of the slow pace of interest rate normalisation in Japan.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair formed a tight consolidation range around the 1.1600 level. After an upward breakout, the pair completed a correction to 1.1680. With that correction now over, a new decline has begun. The next target for this bearish wave is 1.1540, which is considered only the first leg of the downtrend. Following a minor correction back towards 1.1600, the decline is expected to extend to at least 1.1488. This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero but has diverged from the histogram and is pointing decisively downward, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a downward wave structure targeting 1.1616. The pair is effectively establishing the boundaries of a new consolidation range around this level. An upward breakout could trigger another correction towards 1.1640. However, the primary expectation is for a resumption of the downtrend to 1.1576, with the potential to extend the wave to 1.1540. This would represent only the first half of the third wave within the broader downward trend. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook. Its signal line is below 50 and is falling confidently towards 20, suggesting that short-term downward potential remains.

Conclusion

The fundamental focus is squarely on the Fed, with technicals pointing to a bearish resolution for the EUR/USD. The overall structure suggests any rallies are likely corrective within a broader downtrend, with key targets situated near 1.1540 and potentially 1.1488.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair rallied sharply on Monday, reaching the 153.00 level and testing levels not seen since February 2025. This bullish momentum is being driven by expectations of significant fiscal stimulus from Japan’s new government and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy path.

The yen has been under sustained pressure since the election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whose administration is expected to pursue expansive fiscal spending while endorsing an accommodative monetary stance. Reports suggest a substantial stimulus package, valued at over ¥13.9 trillion, could be unveiled as early as November. The plan aims to support households and mitigate inflationary pressures.

While the BoJ is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, market participants will be watching closely for any communication regarding the conditions for a future rate hike should inflationary pressures ease. Additionally, an upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Takaichi and US President Donald Trump is being monitored for further signals on the direction of Japan’s economic policy.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY broke out upwards from a consolidation range around 151.80, confirming a renewed uptrend with an initial target at 153.43. The pair has since completed a leg higher to 153.24 and is now undergoing a technical retracement, currently testing the 152.43 level from above. We expect this pullback to be followed by another impulse higher towards the 153.43 target. Following that, a more pronounced correction towards 151.80 is anticipated before the broader uptrend resumes, with the next major objective at 154.33. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line firmly above zero and pointing upwards, confirming sustained bullish momentum.

H1 chart:

The H1 chart shows the completion of an initial growth wave to 153.25. The immediate focus is on a further push to 153.33. Upon reaching this local target, a corrective decline to at least 152.43 is likely. Once this correction is complete, the next leg of the uptrend is projected to drive the pair towards 154.33. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 50 and trending strongly towards 80, indicating that near-term bullish momentum remains intact.

Conclusion

Fundamentally, the combination of anticipated Japanese fiscal stimulus and a steady BoJ continues to weigh on the yen, while technically, USD/JPY retains a constructive bullish bias. While a short-term correction is expected, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with key targets at 153.43 and ultimately 154.33.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Market sentiment remains dominated by escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, which are dampening the euro’s outlook and fuelling demand for traditional safe-haven assets, notably the US dollar.

The dollar’s strength is further underpinned by the persistently hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. Officials continue to signal that interest rates will need to remain at their current levels for longer than previously anticipated. This stance is reinforced by resilient US inflation data, solidifying market expectations that the Fed will maintain its current policy course.

In stark contrast, the eurozone is grappling with a marked slowdown in business activity. The latest PMI data confirms a contraction across both manufacturing and services sectors. Against this deteriorating economic backdrop, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a notably cautious tone, hinting at significant downside risks to growth. This growing monetary policy divergence with the US creates a fundamental imbalance, exacerbating the downward pressure on the single currency.

Consequently, the overall fundamental picture continues to favour the US dollar, suggesting further downside potential for the EUR/USD pair.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a tight consolidation range around the 1.1600 level, following a clear impulsive decline. This price action suggests the development of a third wave down. A decisive break below this consolidation range would signal the resumption of the bearish impulse, with an initial target at 1.1488. This bearish technical outlook is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing downward, indicating sustained selling momentum.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the completion of a downward wave to 1.1576, followed by a corrective move to 1.1620, effectively outlining the current consolidation zone. A break above this range could trigger a short-lived correction towards 1.1655 before the broader downtrend resumes, targeting 1.1500. Conversely, a break below the range would directly activate the bearish wave towards 1.1488, which is projected to complete the first leg of the larger third wave down. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line turning down from the 80 level and heading towards 20, reflecting building bearish momentum in the short term.

Conclusion

The combination of a supportive fundamental backdrop for the dollar and a deteriorating outlook for the eurozone maintains a bearish bias for EUR/USD. Technically, the pair appears to be pausing within a broader downtrend, with a breakdown below 1.1600 likely to trigger the next leg lower towards 1.1488.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The pound remains on the back foot against the US dollar, pressured by growing market conviction that the Bank of England (BoE) will sustain its accommodative monetary policy stance for longer than the US Federal Reserve. The latest UK inflation figures showed a noticeable cooling in price pressures, effectively extinguishing expectations of further interest rate hikes from the British central bank.

Conversely, Federal Reserve officials continue to strike a hawkish tone in their public remarks, signalling that US interest rates are likely to remain at elevated levels for an extended period. This policy divergence is bolstering the US dollar’s appeal, strengthening its position as a high-yielding, safe-haven asset.

Domestic headwinds are also weighing heavily on sterling. A recent contraction in business activity across both the services and manufacturing sectors (with PMI readings falling below the 50.0 threshold) points to a potential recession in the fourth quarter. Faced with a slowing economy, weakening domestic demand, and persistent cost pressures, the BoE is expected to pause its tightening cycle, leaving the currency vulnerable to further selling.

Compounding these factors, a strong intermarket backdrop for the dollar – characterised by rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening DXY index – is providing both technical and fundamental support for the GBP/USD downtrend.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has been consolidating around 1.3340. The primary scenario suggests a downward breakout from this range, initiating a third wave of decline towards 1.3213. It is important to note that this is only an intermediate target; the broader bearish wave structure carries a primary objective near the 1.2963 area. This outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing firmly downward, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the market forming the first leg of a broader third wave downward. The immediate downside target is 1.3276. Upon reaching this level, a short-term corrective rebound to at least 1.3330 is possible. Following such a correction, a resumption of the decline towards 1.3240 and 1.3213 is expected, which would likely complete the current wave structure. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view; its signal line is below 50 and is trending towards the oversold territory (20), reinforcing the probability of continued downward movement.

Conclusion

The confluence of a dovish BoE policy shift, resilient US hawkishness, and deteriorating UK economic data creates a powerfully bearish environment for Sterling. Technically, the path of least resistance is firmly to the downside, with key targets established at 1.3213 and ultimately 1.2963.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The yen is continuing its corrective phase, with the US dollar facing conflicting pressures. Political uncertainty in the US—stemming from the threat of a federal government shutdown—coupled with the escalation of Trump’s trade wars, is creating a mixed environment for the greenback.

On one hand, the dollar continues to find support from high US bond yields and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on inflation risks, which is limiting the scale of its decline.

On the other hand, a trifecta of factors is bolstering the yen’s appeal as a safe-haven asset: signs of weakening business activity, growing US budget deficits, and heightened geopolitical tensions in Asia, particularly concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea.

An additional layer of complexity comes from the energy market. Instability and rising oil prices threaten to reignite inflationary pressures, which could force investors to reassess their interest rate expectations.

Collectively, these elements create a volatile fundamental backdrop. Short-term movements in USD/JPY are likely to be dictated by the delicate balance between the dollar’s yield appeal and rising demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair formed a consolidation range around 151.10. Following a downward breakout, the pair successfully reached its initial target at 149.38. The market has since completed a technical retest of the 151.10 level from below. The immediate scenario favours a further correction towards 149.00. Following this decline, we anticipate the start of a new growth wave, with initial targets at 151.50 and a longer-term prospect of resuming the broader uptrend towards 154.10. This outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line remains below zero and is pointing downward, reflecting sustained bearish momentum with potential for a subsequent reversal.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed an upward leg to 151.10, forming a structure that suggests the correction phase has concluded. We now expect the development of a fifth decline wave towards 149.00. After this move lower, we will assess the potential for a new upward movement targeting 151.10. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view. Its signal line is currently below 50 and trending downwards towards the 20 zone, indicating that short-term downward potential remains intact.

Conclusion

The yen’s correction is set to continue in the near term, driven by a complex mix of fundamental headwinds for the dollar and safe-haven demand. Technically, the path of least resistance appears to be a further dip towards 149.00, after which the broader bullish trend is expected to reassert itself, targeting levels above 151.50.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The British pound remains under sustained pressure, driven by a weakening domestic economy and receding inflation concerns. Recent UK macroeconomic data indicate stagnation in the service sector and a continued decline in consumer spending.

At the same time, slowing wage growth is giving the Bank of England greater flexibility to adopt a more dovish stance. Market expectations now point to a high likelihood of a rate cut at one of the bank’s forthcoming meetings.

Political uncertainty is also weighing on the currency. The government’s fragile parliamentary position and deepening internal divisions over tax and fiscal policy are adding to sterling’s vulnerability. This is compounded by falling business confidence and subdued investment activity, raising concerns about the UK’s economic trajectory into the fourth quarter.

Externally, the US dollar continues to gain support. Recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials suggest a commitment to maintaining current interest rate levels through year-end, bolstering the greenback’s appeal. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing volatility in commodity markets are fuelling demand for safe-haven assets, including the dollar.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains tilted towards further GBP/USD depreciation in the near to medium term.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

A consolidation range has formed around 1.3310. A downward breakout appears likely, signalling a continuation of the third declining wave towards a local target of 1.3125. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line lies below zero and is pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has also formed a consolidation range around 1.3310, with the third wave of the broader downtrend now largely confirmed. The first leg of this wave reached 1.3252, followed by a correction to 1.3372. A further decline toward at least 1.3244 is anticipated, with an extension of the downward structure to 1.3125 also possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Sterling continues to face significant headwinds from both domestic and external factors. With monetary and political dynamics aligned against it and technical structure favouring the downside, GBP/USD appears set for further declines in the sessions ahead.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair tumbled to 1.1569 on Friday, propelling the US dollar to a two-month high. The rally comes as investors retreat from both the euro and the yen, which have lost their appeal.

The yen has depreciated roughly 4.0% against the dollar since Sanae Takaichi won the race to become Japan’s next prime minister. Markets are anticipating an expansion of fiscal stimulus and a continuation of accommodative monetary policy under the new leadership.

Meanwhile, the euro has weakened by approximately 1.5%, pressured by political instability in France. President Emmanuel Macron is now seeking his sixth prime minister in just two years, creating significant uncertainty.

In the United States, the government shutdown has entered its ninth day. This has delayed the release of key macroeconomic data, leaving markets without crucial information to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Market pricing currently indicates a 95% probability of a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut in October. However, the likelihood of a subsequent easing in December has fallen to 80%, down from 90% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The pair completed a downward wave to 1.1622 and subsequently formed a consolidation range around this level. Today’s downward breakout from this range has completed a further decline to 1.1542. A corrective pullback to 1.1584 is now possible. Following this, a decline towards 1.1520 is expected, with the potential to extend the downtrend to 1.1500. This bearish scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

A decline to 1.1640 was followed by the formation of a consolidation range below this level. The subsequent downward movement culminated in a wave reaching 1.1542. A short-term correction to 1.1580 is possible today. Upon its completion, a further decline to 1.1520 is anticipated, with the local target for the downward wave structure seen at 1.1500. Technically, this outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD is firmly on the back foot, driven by a stronger US dollar and distinct weaknesses in both the euro and yen. The technical structure is overwhelmingly bearish, pointing towards a continued decline with key targets at 1.1520 and 1.1500.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair attempted to stabilise on Thursday, trading around 1.3413 USD. However, investor sentiment remains cautious amid a weak outlook for the UK economy and uncertainty surrounding the government’s November budget.

UK GDP growth is projected to remain moderate through year-end, while inflation is forecast to rise to 4% – double the Bank of England’s target. Recent data confirm the economy is losing momentum after a strong start to 2025.

The pound showed a muted reaction to this data. Nonetheless, markets are concerned that potential tax increases in the upcoming budget – aimed at ensuring compliance with fiscal rules – could exert further pressure on the currency.

This week, speeches from Bank of England officials Huw Pill and Catherine Mann are in focus. Both previously supported holding rates steady in September. Monetary policymakers have previously warned that global markets could face a shock if investors begin to doubt the prospects for the artificial intelligence sector or the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

A narrow consolidation range has formed around 1.3420. Following a downward breakout, the pair is developing a decline towards 1.3300. This move represents only the first half of the third declining wave within the broader downtrend, with the primary target seen at 1.3130. This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line lies below zero and is pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.3415. The subsequent downward movement continues the bearish wave towards a local target of 1.3337. Upon reaching this level, a corrective pullback towards 1.3415 is anticipated. Following this, another decline towards at least 1.3300 is expected, with an extension of the downward structure to 1.3200 also possible. Technically, this outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 80 and is turning sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

While the GBP/USD has paused its descent, significant downside risks remain due to domestic economic concerns and looming fiscal policy decisions. The technical structure continues to point to further declines, with key support levels at 1.3337 and 1.3300 in focus.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has rallied to its highest level since February, trading around 152.45. The Japanese yen has depreciated by over 3% this week, with selling pressure intensifying following the release of soft wage data. This has significantly dampened market expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

The underlying driver is a persistent squeeze on household budgets: real incomes in Japan fell by 1.4% year-on-year in August, the eighth consecutive monthly decline. This confirms that price growth continues to outpace wage earnings.

While BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has previously signalled the regulator’s readiness to resume hiking rates should the economy and inflation align with forecasts, he has also highlighted risks from potential US trade tariffs.

On the political front, investors are assessing the implications of Sanae Takaichi’s victory in the leadership race. As a known supporter of the Abenomics stimulus programme, her election has bolstered expectations of large-scale budget injections and the continuation of an accommodative monetary policy stance.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is advancing towards the 153.00 resistance level. Upon testing this level, a corrective pullback towards 151.28 is a plausible scenario. Following such a correction, the potential for a further upward move to 155.69 would be in view, with a longer-term trend objective at 156.90. This bullish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero and pointing sharply higher.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has fulfilled its short-term growth target at 152.62. For the current session, we anticipate a minor decline to the 151.61 support level, which may be followed by another attempt to rise towards 153.00. This intraday view is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently below the 80 mark and is turning downwards towards 20, suggesting a brief consolidation before the next potential leg higher.

Conclusion

Fundamentally, the yen remains under pressure from weak domestic data and political signals that favour continued stimulus, reducing the likelihood of a near-term policy shift from the BoJ. Technically, the path of least resistance remains upwards, with key resistance at 153.00. A successful break above this level could open the door for a further significant advance, though short-term corrections should be expected within the broader bullish trend.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.