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Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (18,203 contracts) with the EuroFX (13,511 contracts) also rising by more than 10,000 contracts followed by the Australian Dollar (6,751 contracts), Mexican Peso (6,554 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (2,198 contracts).

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-3,783 contracts), US Dollar Index (-1,610 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,001 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-2,755 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,295 contracts) and Bitcoin (-869 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is this week’s boost in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling and the Euro. Both of these currencies saw speculator positions rise by over +10,000 weekly contracts. Helping out both the Sterling and the Euro positioning has been a dent in the outlook for the US Dollar.

The US inflation numbers continue to moderate and market watchers are expecting the US Federal Reserve to hold their interest rates steady. According to the Fed Watch tool, expectations are currently 98 percent for a rate hold at the December meeting and when looking out over the next year, investors are starting to expect rate decreases in 2024.

The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by over +18,000 contracts and has gained in three out of the past four weeks. The GBP speculative level has now improved to the least bearish level of the past eight weeks at a total of -7,895 contracts. The GBPUSD exchange rate has been following suit with a price close this week at the highest level since August. The GBPUSD has bounced off the 1.2100 major support in recent months and has accelerated higher (+5% in November) with a close over the 1.2700 to end the week.

The Euro speculator position, meanwhile, jumped by over +13,000 contracts this week as well and has now risen for seven consecutive weeks. The Euro position has gained by a total of +67,633 contracts over this past 7-week period to reach a 13-week high point at +143,165 contracts. The Euro (EURUSD) exchange rate to the US Dollar has also had a strong couple of months with the EURUSD currency pair bouncing off the 1.5500 major support to challenge the 1.1000 level. This week the EURUSD was rejected at the 1.1000 level and closed at 1.0879.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	39,359	33	19,087	57	-18,292	47	-795	0
EUR	727,138	48	143,165	81	-176,315	23	33,150	32
GBP	217,372	47	-7,895	50	10,064	51	-2,169	54
JPY	260,781	82	-109,237	12	103,692	86	5,545	65
CHF	60,479	96	-20,289	1	26,691	88	-6,402	38
CAD	200,864	61	-63,242	6	67,537	94	-4,295	13
AUD	197,053	55	-71,219	24	73,789	73	-2,570	46
NZD	51,460	60	-19,609	4	20,208	91	-599	43
MXN	247,503	54	65,485	79	-71,441	19	5,956	49
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	108,749	100	32,881	77	-29,230	29	-3,651	0
Bitcoin	23,027	100	-1,745	40	792	0	953	35

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (81 percent) and the Mexican Peso (79 percent) were leading the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (77 percent), US Dollar Index (57 percent) and the British Pound (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (1 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent), the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (59.5 percent)
EuroFX (81.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (50.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (79.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (75.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (77.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.4 percent)
Bitcoin (40.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (53.2 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (38 percent) and the EuroFX (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (13 percent), the Australian Dollar (9 percent) and the British Pound (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-31 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-3.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (8.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-35.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (12.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (38.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-31.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-30.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	17.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	63.6	9.0
– Net Position:	19,087	-18,292	-795
– Gross Longs:	28,798	6,746	2,735
– Gross Shorts:	9,711	25,038	3,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	46.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	3.9	-28.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 143,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	53.5	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	77.7	6.8
– Net Position:	143,165	-176,315	33,150
– Gross Longs:	233,454	388,784	82,613
– Gross Shorts:	90,289	565,099	49,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	23.2	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-28.0	22.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	54.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	49.8	13.0
– Net Position:	-7,895	10,064	-2,169
– Gross Longs:	61,296	118,253	26,067
– Gross Shorts:	69,191	108,189	28,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	51.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.5	12.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -109,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	69.1	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.6	29.3	14.9
– Net Position:	-109,237	103,692	5,545
– Gross Longs:	30,461	180,134	44,382
– Gross Shorts:	139,698	76,442	38,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	85.7	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	-4.2	31.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	73.0	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	28.9	30.0
– Net Position:	-20,289	26,691	-6,402
– Gross Longs:	4,300	44,145	11,754
– Gross Shorts:	24,589	17,454	18,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	87.9	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	-6.6	24.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	71.4	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	37.8	17.3
– Net Position:	-63,242	67,537	-4,295
– Gross Longs:	18,991	143,464	30,505
– Gross Shorts:	82,233	75,927	34,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.0	93.7	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	10.9	-6.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -71,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	66.6	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	29.1	13.7
– Net Position:	-71,219	73,789	-2,570
– Gross Longs:	29,203	131,213	24,361
– Gross Shorts:	100,422	57,424	26,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.6	72.7	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-17.6	33.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -19,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	71.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.7	32.4	8.4
– Net Position:	-19,609	20,208	-599
– Gross Longs:	10,104	36,898	3,703
– Gross Shorts:	29,713	16,690	4,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	90.7	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.7	28.5	13.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	53.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	82.0	0.8
– Net Position:	65,485	-71,441	5,956
– Gross Longs:	105,838	131,543	7,840
– Gross Shorts:	40,353	202,984	1,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	18.8	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.5	20.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	45.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	72.5	7.0
– Net Position:	32,881	-29,230	-3,651
– Gross Longs:	52,260	49,664	3,934
– Gross Shorts:	19,379	78,894	7,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.1	29.4	0.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.1	-30.4	-48.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.4	5.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	90.0	2.4	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,745	792	953
– Gross Longs:	18,979	1,344	1,688
– Gross Shorts:	20,724	552	735
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	90.7	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	48.6	6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

02 Dec

Speculator Extremes: SOFR-3M, Steel, Corn & Wheat lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 28th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 18.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 527,237 net contracts this week with a rise of 27,337 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is now at a 98.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 21.8 this week. The speculator position registered -233 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 682 contracts in speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 90.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 37,349 net contracts this week with a boost of 7,447 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is at a 83.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 0.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 71,646 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,193 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 81.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.9 this week.

The speculator position was -6,452 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -94 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -157,148 net contracts this week with a drop of -33,142 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.4 this week. The speculator position was -97,204 net contracts this week with a decline of -19,673 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -48.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,486 net contracts this week with a slide of -616 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.1 this week. The speculator position was -20,289 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,295 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The speculator position was -257,895 net contracts this week with a decrease of -23,489 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

28 Nov

USDInd slips below weekly support

By ForexTime

USD Index busy with a D1 downtrend

Broken weekly support may turn to resistance level

H4 bearish scenario triggered if 103.060 price level breached

Three potential targets identified on the H4 chart.

Bearish scenario invalidated if prices push back above 103.510

Dollar bears could be enticed to drag prices lower after the USD Index slipped below a weekly support level.

This development may signal the resumption of the downtrend, especially if the new weekly resistance level strengthens the bearish resolve – causing the negative momentum to build as a result.

The H4 chart confirms the overall bearish dominance with the Momentum Oscillator below the 100 baseline in negative terrain and the price being lower than the 50 Exponential Moving Average.

If the weekly resistance level holds and the price reaches the 103.060 level, a short opportunity will be triggered.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to a trigger level just below the last lower bottom at 103.060 and dragging it to just above the last lower top, three possible targets can be established:

The first potential target is at 102.611 (Target 1). This target will help with risk management.

The second price target is likely at 102.027 (Target 2).

The third and last price target is possible at 101.487 (Target 3), just before the next weekly support level.

If the price at 103.510 is broken, this scenario is no longer appropriate.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Nov

The USD Experiences a Downturn as EUR/USD Rises

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair saw an uptick, reaching 1.0944 at the onset of the final week of November. This movement indicates a weakening of the US dollar against the Euro.

Key to this shift is the upcoming release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a crucial measure watched closely by the US Federal Reserve. The Core PCE index, reflecting the primary personal spending of US citizens, is a significant indicator for the Federal Reserve in shaping its credit and monetary policies. The index had previously shown a 0.3% month-over-month increase, but expectations for October point to a potential slowdown to a 0.2% rise.

A slowdown in inflation, as indicated by the Core PCE index, could lead to a softer stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate hikes. This prospect could further contribute to the weakening of the US dollar. From a broader perspective, a decrease in inflation is generally viewed positively for the economy, as it eases financial pressures on consumers and businesses.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair

In the H4 chart of the EUR/USD pair, a consolidation pattern around 1.0940 has emerged, suggesting a potential breakout. The analysis predicts an upward move to 1.0990, followed by a possible pullback to 1.0940, and then another rise to 1.1030. This bullish outlook is supported by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which shows its signal line above zero and oriented upwards.

Similarly, the H1 chart for the EUR/USD pair displays a narrow consolidation around 1.0940. The market is anticipated to break upwards from this range, possibly reaching a local target of 1.0990. Upon hitting this level, a correction back to 1.0940 is expected. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80, suggests the potential for a downward adjustment towards 50, supporting this forecast.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Nov

Trade Of The Week: EURUSD bulls back in town?

By ForexTime

EURUSD climbs roughly 500 pips from October low

Data from both sides of the Atlantic could rock currency pair

Euro bulls in position of power but RSI signals overbought

Prices are testing resistance level at 1.0950

Another big move around the corner for EURUSD?

The world’s most traded FX pair has climbed roughly 500 pips from its October low!

Over the past few weeks, EURUSD bulls have been putting in the work with prices back above the 200-day Simple Moving Average.

Fundamentally, a weaker dollar has powered the EURUSD’s upside. Dollar weakness was a major theme this month, especially after the softer-than-expected US inflation data solidified bets over the Fed being done with rate hikes.

Given how the currency pair is testing a significant resistance level ahead of a data-packed week from both sides of the Atlantic, another big move could be around the corner.

Here are three main factors to look out for this week:

Key EU data

It’s a data-heavy week for the euro with the latest inflation figures and PMI’s among other reports in focus.

Wednesday sees the Eurozone economic and consumer confidence report coupled with CPI figures from Germany which could offer fresh clues about what actions the ECB may take beyond 2023. Germany’s month-on-month inflation figures are expected to post a negative 0.1% print in November while the year-on-year is forecast to hit 3.5% – lower than the 3.8% in the previous month. On Thursday, attention will be on the Eurozone CPI and Germany unemployment figures which will be topped off with the Eurozone/Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI’s on Friday.

Traders are currently pricing in a 61% probability of an ECB 25 basis point rate cut by April 2024.

The EURUSD could weaken on further evidence of cooling price pressures and disappointing economic data from the eurozone/Germany.
A surprise uptick in inflation and better-than-expected economic data could support the euro, pushing the EURUSD higher as a result.

Dollar volatility

The cocktail of US economic data coupled with speeches from a host of Fed officials including Jerome Powell could trigger dollar volatility this week.

Data such as third-quarter US GDP (second estimate), consumer confidence, the latest PCE report and PMI’s among others may offer fresh clues about the Fed’s 2024 policy outlook. On Friday, Powell will be under the spotlight with his comments heavily scrutinized by investors for more clarity on the Fed’s thinking beyond 2023.

The dollar is likely to strengthen if economic data beats forecasts and Powell downplays expectations around US rate cuts next year. A stronger dollar may drag the EURUSD’s lower.
Should US economic data disappoint and Powell along with other Fed officials strike a dovish tone, the EURUSD may venture higher amid a weaker dollar.

Technical forces

The EURUSD remains in a healthy uptrend on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Although euro bulls are in a position of power above the 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has touched 70 – indicating that prices may be overbought. A strong breakout or technical rebound could be on the horizon, with 1.0950 acting as a key level of interest.

Should prices secure a strong breakout and daily close above 1.0950, this could open the doors towards 1.1030 and 1.1080 – a level not seen since late July.
Should the EURUSD remain capped below 1.0950, this could trigger a decline back towards 1.0850 and the 200-day SMA at 1.0813.

According to Bloomberg’s FX model, there is a 76% chance that the EURUSD trades within the 1.0854 – 1.1062 range this week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Nov

Dollar to dive in 2024 as investors bet on Fed cuts

By George Prior

The US dollar is likely to “consistently weaken” throughout 2024 as the US Federal Reserve winds up its aggressive interest rate hiking agenda, predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The bearish forecast from deVere Group chief executive Nigel Green comes as it is reported that asset managers are selling the currency at the fastest pace in a year.

He comments: “The Big Dollar Sell-Off is on.

“We expect this trend to increase in momentum throughout 2024 as investors increasingly believe that the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hiking campaign in a generation is winding down.

“The dollar traditionally performs well at the start of the year, but it is likely that it will consistently weaken during the course of next year as the Fed moves to ease its grip on rates.

“With the battle against inflation being won, it can be expected that the central bank will roll out multiple rate cuts in 2024, prompting investors to think that holding so many dollars is not as necessary.”

The expectation is that lower interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. As interest rates in the US decline, the interest rate differential between the dollar and other currencies narrows, diminishing the yield advantage that has historically drawn investors to the greenback.

Furthermore, the possibility of multiple rate cuts by the Fed is prompting investors to seek higher-yielding assets elsewhere, contributing to the accelerated exit from the dollar.

“Alternative investments in currencies from regions with more favourable interest rate outlooks become increasingly appealing as the interest rate differentials shift in their favor.”

The reverberations of this dollar sell-off extend beyond the borders of the United States.

“A weakened dollar has implications for global trade, as a depreciating currency can boost US exports but may also lead to tensions with trading partners,” says the deVere Group CEO.

“In addition, emerging market economies, which often carry significant levels of dollar-denominated debt, will experience relief as the burden of servicing this debt is alleviated with a weaker dollar.”

He concludes: “As investors bet big on the Fed cutting rates, 2024 could be dubbed ‘the year of the dollar dive’.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Nov

Burgeoning Downtrend in Us Dollar Could Ease Difficulties Facing Emerging Market Economies

Source: McAlinden Research (11/17/23)

McAlinden Research shares thoughts on the current state of the U.S. dollar and how this may impact the market.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a 2-month low earlier this week on consumer price inflation data that was softer than expected. A gradual pace of disinflation has taken hold and appears to indicate the Federal Reserve has wrangled inflation for the moment. The slowing pace of growth in the CPI was compounded by outright deflation in producer prices, as well as import and export price data.

These data points have increased the likelihood that the Fed has concluded its spate of rate hikes, reaching a terminal Fed Funds rate of 5.5%. If so, that would fall one hike short of what Fed policymakers projected for 2023 in September’s dot plot. Fed Funds futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicate that traders see no further hikes going forward into 2024.

When interest rates rise in the U.S., the higher yields can attract investment capital from investors abroad who exchange assets in non-USD currencies for Dollar-denominated investments. This demand, in turn, raises the value of the Dollar compared to other currencies. In a similar way, if rates are to hold steady or even begin to fall, that can cut the appeal of the Dollar. CME’s FedWatch tool suggests a cut is actually more likely than any further hikes going forward — particularly from May 2024 and beyond.

It was all the way back in our August 2022 Viewpoint, The FX Timebomb , that MRP noted the Dollar was likely on the verge of a downturn, as the Fed was rapidly approaching what we termed “peak hawkishness;” the point at which rate hikes reached their maximum size and frequency. We wagered that, from that point on, the central bank’s rate hike regime would gradually reduce the size of rate hikes from 75bps at their largest to 50bps and then, eventually, just 25bps. Further, these hikes would become less frequent until they ceased altogether — likely the state of affairs we have now reached with just one hike in the past four FOMC meetings. The DXY hit a more than 20-year high north of 114.0 that September, prior to retreating. Though we did witness a rebound in the Dollar from lows under 100.00 earlier this year, it has not gotten anywhere near its 2022 high.

If Dollar strength is indeed set to subside further, that could provide a boon to emerging market (EM) economies. Per a 2023 IMF analysis, a 10.0% USD appreciation, linked to global financial market forces, decreases economic output in emerging economies by -1.9% after one year’s time, and this drag lingers for two and a half years. The international impact of material USD appreciation is felt disproportionately in EM economies, as growth in developed economies only experiences an immediate decline of -0.6% in the wake of 10.0% USD appreciation, and that dent dissipates in a year’s time.

The strong USD battered nearly all international currencies — particularly those in emerging markets — but subsiding rate pressure from the Fed is bolstering expectations for non-USD currencies in the year ahead. A majority of analysts in a November Reuters poll indicated that they expect the Dollar to trade lower by year-end. The rebound in EM currencies is expected to be gradual, but several EM currencies, like the Indian Rupee, Thai Baht, and South Korean Won, were projected to recoup recent losses sustained against the US Dollar by late 2024.

Shares of many publicly traded EM firms could be bolstered by a favorable currency translation effect if the Dollar continues to soften relative to local currencies. An October 2023 outlook report from Lazard Asset Management notes that current earnings growth forecasts show EM earnings growth of 19% in 2024, nearly doubling expectations for developed markets earnings growth at just 10%. Earnings in the U.S. are only expected to expand by 12%, signifying a 7% positive earnings growth spread in favor of EM over U.S. equities.

The most significant impact of a weakening Dollar on emerging markets may be the impact on their debt loads. As of 2019, about two-thirds of external debt in EM economies was denominated in USD. By October 2022, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data showed that non-financial dollar-denominated debt in emerging economies stood at $4.2 trillion. When the Dollar appreciates in value compared to local currencies in emerging markets, the servicing of USD-denominated debt becomes more costly on a relative basis. However, the opposite case could now take place, with EM debt loads becoming more manageable.

Investors can gain exposure to emerging markets via the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), as well as EM currencies via the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW). Additionally, exposure to the U.S. Dollar can be gained with either the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) or Invesco’s DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN).

Charts

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

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McAlinden Research Partners Disclosures
This report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy/sell/endorse or a solicitation of an offer to buy/sell/endorse Interests or any other security or instrument or to participate in any trading or investment strategy. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the sequence, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information in this Report. Unless otherwise noted, all information is sourced from public data.
McAlinden Research Partners is a division of Catalpa Capital Advisors, LLC (CCA), a Registered Investment Advisor. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets discussed herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. CCA, MRP, employees and direct affiliates of the firm may or may not own any of the securities mentioned in the report at the time of publication.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Nov

USDInd hits 3-month low. More room to fall?

By ForexTime

Dollar weakened as markets raise bet on Fed rate cuts in 2024
USDInd approaches key support levels around 103 region
Daily close below 103 region could spark another 1,300-point drop
Other technical indicators suggest 350-point rebound ahead
FOMC meeting minutes later today may spark more volatility

The USD index has fallen by some 4000 points since its November 1st intraday high.

There may be little ahead to cheer for the index, given current market expectations that the US Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates as early as May 2024.

Recall that greater expectations for lower interest rate cuts tend to translate into a weaker currency.

At the time of writing the US Index is approaching a convergence of support levels:

103.000: an important round number level
102.910: the 261.8 Fibonacci level

The Fibonacci levels are taken from the 29th September low to the 3rd October high.

A daily close below these levels could see the index fall further to 101.900 to trade around its lowest since August.

USDInd may see 350-point technical rebound soon

From an Elliot wave perspective, the USDInd D1 is in its 5th impulse wave of the decline from 107.914 posted on November 1st.

Based on the Elliot wave theory, wave 5 is usually followed by a correction with sequence A-B-C coming in different forms.

If the key support levels around 103.00 hold, we may see the index bulls come in for a counter trend move back up to its 200-day moving average.

Note also that the Relative Strength Index (an indicator that shows us extreme buy and sell zones) is teetering at the 30-point level.

If the RSI falls below 30, it becomes technically oversold.

Such a technical event would increase the probabilities of a rebound.

However, the Average Directional Movement Index (an indicator that shows us the strength of the trend) is pointing upwards.

This means that the downward bias for the USDInd remains strong.

This could spell an extended decline in the USDIndex, until we see a peak in the ADX signaling weakness in the current bearish strength.

What could move USDInd today?

With FOMC meeting minutes due at 7:00 pm GMT tonight, traders and investors around the world are looking for confirmation that peak US interest rates is truly here.

In other words, markets want to know whether the Fed is truly done with its rate hikes for this cycle.

If so, that could send the USDInd to a fresh 3-month low.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Nov

Currency Speculators raised Japanese Yen bearish bets to 6-year high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (19,851 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (6,642 contracts), the Brazilian Real (5,100 contracts), Bitcoin (333 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (263 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-26,209 contracts), the British Pound (-11,478 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,393 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,094 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-2,682 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-2,589 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculator bets decline to 6-year high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was the renewed boost in the weakness of the Japanese yen speculator positioning. Large speculative yen positions fell sharply this week by -26,209 net contracts and dropped for the third straight week. Over the past sixteen weeks, the yen speculator bets have decreased in twelve of those weeks and a total of -52,497 contracts have been added to the current bearish standing.

This week’s yen net position of -130,249 contracts marks the most bearish level of the past 313 weeks, dating all the way back to November 14th of 2017 (exactly six years to the date) when the net position had fallen to -135,999 contracts.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has continued with an ultra-loose monetary policy regime in contrast to most major economies that have been aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflationary pressures over the past year. The BOJ recently kept its interest rate unchanged (currently at -0.1 percent) but changed the upper level for the 10-year interest rate to 1 percent and cited an expectation of higher inflation going forward. Market watchers are speculating that the BOJ could end its negative interest rates as early as January. Depending on the path and the many variables going forward, a normalization of policy could be a benefit for the Japanese yen which has been at weakest levels in three decades.

This week, the yen exchange rate against the US Dollar was stronger and managed to close the week at the 149.50 level. This was a turnaround at the end of the week after the USDJPY currency pair touched the 151.90 exchange level on Monday (a higher USDJPY exchange rate means dollar strength & yen weakness) which was the highest point for the currency pair since October of 2022 when the pair reached a high of 151.94.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-14-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	38,842	32	19,734	58	-20,378	43	644	13
EUR	702,463	35	108,907	67	-140,987	36	32,080	30
GBP	216,411	47	-27,730	37	35,439	66	-7,709	43
JPY	273,763	91	-130,249	0	133,272	100	-3,023	47
CHF	59,464	93	-20,151	1	27,543	89	-7,392	35
CAD	206,046	65	-70,403	0	77,698	100	-7,295	7
AUD	197,469	56	-70,956	24	79,057	77	-8,101	33
NZD	49,906	56	-17,034	11	19,170	88	-2,136	25
MXN	228,809	48	43,382	66	-47,568	33	4,186	38
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	68,030	64	31,651	76	-33,408	24	1,757	51
Bitcoin	21,203	96	-1,344	46	481	0	863	33

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the EuroFX (67 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (1 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.4 percent)
EuroFX (66.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (58.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (36.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (28.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (65.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (68.9 percent)
Bitcoin (46.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.2 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (19 percent) and the EuroFX (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (10 percent) and the US Dollar Index (2 percent) represent the next highest positive movers in the trends data.

The Bitcoin (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-25 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-24 percent) and the British Pound (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.5 percent)
EuroFX (12.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-14.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-22.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (3.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-23.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-25.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-29.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-24.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-12.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (14.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-36.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-52.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.2	17.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	70.3	7.6
– Net Position:	19,734	-20,378	644
– Gross Longs:	27,271	6,917	3,615
– Gross Shorts:	7,537	27,295	2,971
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	43.4	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-0.3	-8.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 108,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	54.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	74.4	7.4
– Net Position:	108,907	-140,987	32,080
– Gross Longs:	221,190	381,765	83,714
– Gross Shorts:	112,283	522,752	51,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.7	36.4	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-13.6	10.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	60.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	43.7	15.8
– Net Position:	-27,730	35,439	-7,709
– Gross Longs:	52,797	130,004	26,403
– Gross Shorts:	80,527	94,565	34,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	65.5	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	10.0	6.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -130,249 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -26,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	73.0	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.7	24.3	16.5
– Net Position:	-130,249	133,272	-3,023
– Gross Longs:	27,772	199,890	42,074
– Gross Shorts:	158,021	66,618	45,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	7.5	1.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	71.0	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	24.7	32.0
– Net Position:	-20,151	27,543	-7,392
– Gross Longs:	5,515	42,240	11,612
– Gross Shorts:	25,666	14,697	19,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	89.5	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	0.3	11.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	73.8	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	36.1	17.7
– Net Position:	-70,403	77,698	-7,295
– Gross Longs:	18,678	152,043	29,204
– Gross Shorts:	89,081	74,345	36,499
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	6.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.4	24.4	-19.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	67.2	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	27.1	15.2
– Net Position:	-70,956	79,057	-8,101
– Gross Longs:	32,728	132,639	21,818
– Gross Shorts:	103,684	53,582	29,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	76.7	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-13.7	17.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	73.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	35.4	10.5
– Net Position:	-17,034	19,170	-2,136
– Gross Longs:	8,818	36,817	3,107
– Gross Shorts:	25,852	17,647	5,243
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.0	88.3	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	19.2	11.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	60.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	81.4	1.2
– Net Position:	43,382	-47,568	4,186
– Gross Longs:	79,162	138,716	6,874
– Gross Shorts:	35,780	186,284	2,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.6	33.0	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	11.7	9.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.8	21.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	70.8	2.5
– Net Position:	31,651	-33,408	1,757
– Gross Longs:	49,537	14,767	3,478
– Gross Shorts:	17,886	48,175	1,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	24.1	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-19.9	7.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.2	5.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.5	2.9	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,344	481	863
– Gross Longs:	15,939	1,105	1,609
– Gross Shorts:	17,283	624	746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	82.3	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.1	53.2	10.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

18 Nov

Speculator Extremes: 3M SOFR, Steel, Yen & Ultra 10-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 14th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 416,726 net contracts this week with a net gain of 30,097 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is now at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 14.7 this week. The speculator position registered -1,768 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -465 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 87.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 6.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 75,784 net contracts this week with a small gain of 757 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 81.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -11.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 32,569 net contracts this week with a boost of 3,571 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 81.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.5 this week.

The speculator position was -6,334 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -172 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -265,436 net contracts this week with a small decline of -1,256 contracts in the speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.0 this week. The speculator position was -130,249 net contracts this week with a drop of -26,209 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -25.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -70,403 net contracts this week with a decrease of -2,682 contracts in the speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -41.3 this week. The speculator position was -64,174 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,972 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,416,240 net contracts this week with an increase of 7,144 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 55

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Steel

Heating Oil

Cocoa Futures

Bloomberg Commodity Index

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

Wheat

E-mini SP MidCap400

Swiss Franc

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Dollar bears could be enticed to drag prices lower after the USD Index slipped below a weekly support level.

The first potential target is at 102.611 (Target 1). This target will help with risk management.

The second price target is likely at 102.027 (Target 2).

The third and last price target is possible at 101.487 (Target 3), just before the next weekly support level.

The world’s most traded FX pair has climbed roughly 500 pips from its October low!

Key EU data

Dollar volatility

Technical forces

According to Bloomberg’s FX model, there is a 76% chance that the EURUSD trades within the 1.0854 – 1.1062 range this week.

Charts

The USD index has fallen by some 4000 points since its November 1st intraday high.

A daily close below these levels could see the index fall further to 101.900 to trade around its lowest since August.

USDInd may see 350-point technical rebound soon

If the key support levels around 103.00 hold, we may see the index bulls come in for a counter trend move back up to its 200-day moving average.

Such a technical event would increase the probabilities of a rebound.

This means that the downward bias for the USDInd remains strong.

What could move USDInd today?

If so, that could send the USDInd to a fresh 3-month low.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

Japanese Yen Speculator bets decline to 6-year high

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend