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Murrey Math Lines 16.11.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a possible development of a downtrend. However, the RSI is already in the oversold area. As a result, the quotes are expected to rise above 2/8 (0.8911), reaching the resistance level of 3/8 (0.8977). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of 1/8 (0.8850). In this case, the pair might drop to the support at 0/8 (0.8789).

On M15, a breakout of the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a price rise.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, revealing the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has broken the resistance line. In this case, the quotes are expected to rise above 7/8 (1968.75), followed by a rise to the resistance level of 8/8 (2000.00). The scenario might be cancelled by a downward breakout of 6/8 (1937.50), which could lead to a trend reversal and a decline to the support at 5/8 (1906.25).

On M15, a breakout of the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a further price rise.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Nov

Currency Speculators raised Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar bets last week

COT Release delayed to Monday due to CFTC Holiday Schedule

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (delayed due to holiday release).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher last week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (17,205 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (9,547 contracts), the Mexican Peso (5,443 contracts), the British Pound (4,119 contracts), the EuroFX (3,667 contracts), the US Dollar Index (486 contracts) and with Bitcoin (69 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-18,389 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,652 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,123 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (-192 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-07-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,224	38	19,471	57	-20,161	44	690	14
EUR	697,624	33	89,056	58	-117,515	45	28,459	24
GBP	212,730	45	-16,252	44	29,166	62	-12,914	33
JPY	259,698	81	-104,040	8	111,957	90	-7,917	37
CHF	56,756	84	-17,562	9	27,892	90	-10,330	24
CAD	200,364	61	-67,721	0	72,568	100	-4,847	12
AUD	192,496	52	-65,563	29	73,267	72	-7,704	34
NZD	51,001	59	-14,940	16	17,373	84	-2,433	21
MXN	216,534	43	36,740	62	-41,220	37	4,480	40
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	61,594	55	26,551	69	-28,276	31	1,725	51
Bitcoin	21,749	100	-1,677	41	794	0	883	33

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (69 percent) and the Mexican Peso (62 percent) led the currency markets. The EuroFX (58 percent), US Dollar Index (57 percent) and the British Pound (44 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (8 percent), the Swiss Franc (9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.6 percent)
EuroFX (58.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (56.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (41.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (28.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (46.6 percent)
Bitcoin (41.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.1 percent)

Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (19 percent) and the Brazilian Real (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the Japanese Yen (3 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-30 percent), Swiss Franc (-24 percent) and the British Pound (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.6 percent)
EuroFX (-4.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-22.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-37.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-1.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-23.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-30.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-1.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (19.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-14.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-19.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (14.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-52.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-50.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.6	19.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	68.3	7.8
– Net Position:	19,471	-20,161	690
– Gross Longs:	27,866	8,000	3,903
– Gross Shorts:	8,395	28,161	3,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	43.8	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-2.4	-14.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 89,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	56.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	72.8	7.7
– Net Position:	89,056	-117,515	28,459
– Gross Longs:	212,483	390,336	82,294
– Gross Shorts:	123,427	507,851	53,835
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	45.2	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	2.6	3.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	59.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	45.4	16.4
– Net Position:	-16,252	29,166	-12,914
– Gross Longs:	57,532	125,781	22,020
– Gross Shorts:	73,784	96,615	34,934
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	62.0	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	21.2	-11.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -104,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	73.1	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.6	30.0	17.9
– Net Position:	-104,040	111,957	-7,917
– Gross Longs:	27,238	189,951	38,560
– Gross Shorts:	131,278	77,994	46,477
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	90.3	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-4.0	5.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	69.1	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	20.0	34.7
– Net Position:	-17,562	27,892	-10,330
– Gross Longs:	8,054	39,228	9,391
– Gross Shorts:	25,616	11,336	19,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	90.1	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	12.7	5.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -67,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	72.5	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	36.3	18.2
– Net Position:	-67,721	72,568	-4,847
– Gross Longs:	17,171	145,272	31,585
– Gross Shorts:	84,892	72,704	36,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.1	27.6	-17.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -65,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	65.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.7	27.8	15.3
– Net Position:	-65,563	73,267	-7,704
– Gross Longs:	34,049	126,869	21,769
– Gross Shorts:	99,612	53,602	29,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	72.3	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-21.9	18.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	73.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.7	39.3	10.7
– Net Position:	-14,940	17,373	-2,433
– Gross Longs:	9,399	37,432	3,047
– Gross Shorts:	24,339	20,059	5,480
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	84.3	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-2.4	9.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	63.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	82.5	1.1
– Net Position:	36,740	-41,220	4,480
– Gross Longs:	71,644	137,436	6,939
– Gross Shorts:	34,904	178,656	2,459
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	36.7	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	13.9	3.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.8	22.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	68.4	2.6
– Net Position:	26,551	-28,276	1,725
– Gross Longs:	44,244	13,835	3,350
– Gross Shorts:	17,693	42,111	1,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.9	30.6	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.3	-12.8	-8.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.3	6.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.0	2.9	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,677	794	883
– Gross Longs:	17,253	1,431	1,580
– Gross Shorts:	18,930	637	697
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	90.8	33.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.2	76.9	14.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 Nov

Trade of the Week: GBPUSD capped below 200-day SMA?

By ForexTime

GBPUSD bulls rejected by 200-day SMA

Big week for currency pair due to key UK data

Watch out for potential dollar volatility amid high-risk events

Prices back within wide range on daily charts

Bears could mean business below 1.2320 level

GBPUSD bears could mean business after dragging prices back below a key resistance level.

Despite punching above the 1.2320 level earlier this month, bulls were halted below the 200-day SMA which saw prices slip back within a wide range on the daily charts.

The GBPUSD has been stuck within this range since late September with key support at 1.2080.

Given the barrage of economic reports from the United Kingdom and various events that could rock the dollar – a significant move could be on the horizon for the GBPUSD.

Here are 3 factors to watch out for this week:

Key UK data

The string of key UK economic data this week could offer fresh insight into the health of the economy and influence expectations around the BoE’s next policy move.

On Tuesday, all eyes will be on the latest employment report and speech by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech. The jobs data is likely to offer more clarity on the health of the labour force with wage growth in sharp focus. Wednesday sees the highly anticipated inflation data for October which is expected to see a sharp drop amid lower energy prices. This is topped off with retail sales on Friday and a speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden.

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 1 in 10 chance of a 25-basis point BoE hike in December.

Sterling is likely to weaken towards the 1.2080 support as more signs of a slowing jobs market and cooler-than-expected inflation data reinforces expectations around the BoE being finished with hikes.
The pound could receive a boost towards the 1.2320 level if higher than expected UK economic data including inflation revives bets around another BoE hike beyond 2023.

Dollar volatility

As highlighted in our week ahead report, the dollar could experience heightened volatility this week.

It is set to be influenced by not only the incoming US inflation data on Tuesday but a string of significant reports throughout the week and speeches by numerous Fed officials. On top of this, the threat of a potential US government shutdown on Friday may add to the expected volatility, placing the dollar on a rollercoaster ride.

The dollar could receive a boost if the US inflation data beats forecasts, overall economic data is encouraging, and the US government strikes a deal before the deadline. This development may drag the GBPUSD lower.
Should the US CPI report print softer than expected, economic data disappoint and the US government experiences a shutdown, the dollar could be in the firing line. A weaker dollar has the potential to push the GBPUSD higher.

Technical forces

On the weekly charts, the close back below 1.2320 has placed bears in a position of power with prices trading below the 50, 100, and 200-week SMA.

Zooming back into the daily, we see a breakout/down opportunity with prices touching the 50-day SMA as of writing.

A solid daily close above 1.2320 may encourage a move back toward the 200-day SMA at 1.2430
Should prices fail to push back above 1.2320, bears could drag the currency pair toward the next key support at 1.2080 and 1.1930 – a level not seen since February 2023.

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 73% chance that GBPUSD trades within the 1.2109 – 1.2396 range this week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

10 Nov

Week Ahead: US dollar gears up for big move

By ForexTime

Big week ahead for USD thanks to key risk events

Watch out for top US data including CPI & Fed speeches

Looming US government shutdown also on radar

USDInd back within wide range with support at 105.50 and resistance at 107.20

Another major breakout on the horizon?

The incoming US inflation data, speeches from Fed officials and threat of a potential US government shutdown could rock the dollar next week.

Monday, November 13th

JPY: Japan PPI
GBP: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speech

Tuesday, November 14th

NZD: New Zealand food prices
EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations
GBP: UK jobless claims, Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech
USD: US October CPI, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech
SPX500_m: Home Depot earnings

Wednesday, November 15th

CNH: China retail sales, industrial production
JPY: Japan GDP, industrial production
EUR: EU’s autumn economic forecast
GBP: UK CPI
USD: US retail sales, business inventories, PPI, Empire manufacturing

Thursday, November 16th

AUD: Australia unemployment
JPY: Japan tertiary index, core machine order, trade
USD: US initial jobless claims, industrial production, Fed speak
SPX500_m: Walmart earnings
APEC leaders summit – US President and Chinese President speech

Friday, November 17th

EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
GBP: Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speech
USD: Fed speak – Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Susan, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
Deadline for avoiding US government shutdown

Dollar bull returned to the scene this week thanks to hawkish remarks from Fed officials including Jerome Powell.

Looking at the charts, prices are back above the 105.50 level – testing the 50-day SMA as of writing.

A big move may be brewing for the USDIndex and here are 4 reasons why:

US October CPI Report

The October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Tuesday; November 14 is likely to influence expectations around what the Fed does beyond 2023.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (October 2023 vs. October 2022) to cool 3.3% from 3.7% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
CPI month-on-month (October 2023 vs September 2023) to cool 0.1% from 0.4% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.3%.

Headline inflation is expected to have cooled due to falling global energy prices, will the annual core inflation unchanged at 4.1% – its lowest level since September 2021. Ultimately, further evidence of cooling inflationary pressures may reinforce the argument around the Fed being done with hikes despite recent hawkish remarks from central bank officials.

A softer-than-expected US CPI report is likely to send the USDInd lower.
Should the inflation report exceed market forecasts, the USDInd could rise towards the 107.2 resistance.

US data + Fed speeches

A string of key US economic data and speeches by numerous Fed officials could inject the dollar with more volatility.

Investors will direct their attention towards the latest US retail sales report, Producer Prices Index (PPI), and initial jobless claims among other data releases to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches from various Fed officials are also likely to be closely combed through for more clues and clarity on the Fed’s next move.

Should overall US economic data paint an encouraging picture and Fed speakers strike a hawkish tone, this could keep rate hike hopes alive – boosting the USDInd as a result.
If US economic data disappoints and Fed officials adopt a dovish stance, the USDInd may weaken as bets increase on a Fed pause.

Possible US Government shutdown

Once again, the United States is facing another government shutdown deadline set to expire on November 17th. The last time this happened was back in September when a last-minute deal was secured before the October 1st deadline.

Should this become reality, sentiment towards the US economy could take a hit with an extended shutdown fuelling US recession fears – impacting Fed hike expectations as a result.

A government shutdown may weigh heavily on the dollar, pulling the USDInd lower.
Should the government strike a deal, this could offer some support to the USDInd.

Technical forces

The USDInd is back within a wide range on the daily charts with support at 105.50 and resistance at 107.20. Prices are trading above the 100 and 200-day SMA but the MACD trades below zero.

Sustained weakness below the 50-day SMA (106.0 level) may encourage a decline back towards 105.50 and 104.90.
A solid breakout above the 50-day SMA could trigger a move towards 106.60 and 107.20.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

09 Nov

Technical Analysis & Forecast 09.11.2023

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has completed a declining impulse to 1.0658, correcting to 1.0714 today. An extension of the correction to 1.0725 is not excluded. Next, the declining wave could continue to 1.0630. With a downward breakout of this level, the potential for a wave to 1.0540 might open. This is a local target.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has performed a declining impulse to 1.2245, correcting to 1.2300 today. A new link of growth to 1.2333 might develop later. Next, a new wave of decline to 1.2222 is expected to begin. If this level breaks downwards, the potential for a wave to 1.2073 could open. This is a local target.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed a wave of growth to 151.04. Today the quotes could correct to 150.05. Next, a new wave of growth to 151.44 might begin, opening the potential for 152.15 once the 151.44 level breaks upwards.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has completed a wave of growth to 0.9030, and a link of decline to 0.8970 is expected today. Practically, a consolidation range is forming at these levels. With an escape from this range downwards, a decline to 0.8918 might follow. And with an escape upwards, the potential for a rising wave to 0.9133 might open.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD continues developing a wave of decline to 0.6383. Once this level is reached, a link of correction to 0.6450 is not excluded, followed by a decline to 0.6333. This is a local target.

BRENT

Brent has completed a declining wave to 79.11. Practically, the potential of the declining wave has expired. A consolidation range could form above the 79.11 level today. With an escape upwards, the potential for a wave of growth to 85.75 could open. This is the first target.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues developing a consolidation range around 1961.55. With an escape downwards, the potential for a declining wave to 1920.00 might open. Next, a link of correction to 1960.00 is expected (with a test from below), followed by a decline to 1913.50. This is the first target.

S&P 500

The stock index has completed a declining impulse to 4362.2, correcting to 4390.0 today. Next, a wave of decline to 4330.3 is expected, from where the trend could continue to 4242.0. This is the first target.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Nov

EURUSD Sustains Strength Near Six-Week Highs

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair remains steadfast near 1.0710 on Tuesday, maintaining proximity to the six-week highs set the previous day.

The U.S. dollar has seen a tempered performance, influenced by recent U.S. labor market statistics for October and the resultant stock market adjustments. The data pointed to pockets of weakness in the employment sector, leading investors to infer that the cooling may be an effect of tighter credit and monetary policies. Consequently, there has been a recalibration of expectations regarding the trajectory of future Federal Reserve rate hikes.

In detail, the U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%, slightly higher than the previous 3.8%. Nonfarm payrolls showed an increase of 150 thousand, which was shy of the forecasted 178 thousand. Additionally, the average wage increment was a modest 0.2% month-over-month, missing the anticipated mark.

Market sentiment now appears to lean towards the belief that the current interest rates may represent the zenith of the present monetary tightening cycle.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart for EUR/USD, the currency pair has attained the correctional target at 1.0755. The trend now seems to be tilting downwards, with a trajectory set towards the 1.0655 level. A consolidation phase around this mark is probable. A break below this consolidation could signal a further decline to 1.0633, and potentially, should this support give way, a fall to 1.0515 could be on the horizon. The MACD indicator suggests a peak formation, with its signal line at the highs and anticipating a downturn.

The H1 chart reveals a continuation of the downward wave targeting 1.0655. Should the pair touch this level, a corrective move upwards to around 1.0700 might ensue. Subsequent to this correction, the market may witness a renewed descent towards 1.0633. The Stochastic oscillator provides technical affirmation for this bearish outlook, with its signal line dropping below 50 and aiming for the 20 level.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Nov

Currency Speculators push Australian Dollar bets higher as RBA possibly to raise rate

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (7,971 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (4,161 contracts), Swiss Franc (185 contracts), the Euro (136 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (34 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-6,564 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,219 contracts), the British Pound (-1,735 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,292 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-693 contracts) the US Dollar Index (-686 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Australian Dollar bets higher as RBA possibly to raise rate

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the boost in the speculator’s positioning for the Australian dollar. Large speculative Aussie currency positions gained this week by almost +8,000 net contracts, the largest weekly gain in six weeks. This improved sentiment has pushed the speculators bets higher for the fourth time out of the past six weeks.

The overall Aussie speculator positioning has been consistently bearish since dropping from a net bullish position to a net bearish position on May 25th of 2021. This week marks the 128th consecutive week of bearish speculator positions with the most bearish level being seen on September 19th at a total of -96,946 contracts.

There is a chance that the worst of the positioning for the AUD has been seen because of a possible divergence in central bank interest rate moves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to raise their benchmark rate (currently at 4.15 percent) in the next policy meeting on November 7th to combat stubborn inflation that has surpassed expectations of a faster decline.

The US Federal Reserve, meanwhile, held its own rate policy steady at the most recent meeting and the current market expectation (95 percent in CME FedWatch Tool) is for the Fed to hold again at the December 13th meeting.

The Australian dollar (versus the US Dollar) saw a strong rise this week and just got over the 0.6500 psychological level to close out the week. The AUD has been in a long downtrend since reaching a high in 2021 near 0.80 exchange rate and has a long ways to go for a turnaround but so far, the currency has seen strong support at 0.6300 and has been able to avoid dropping to the 2022 lows.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,803	42	18,985	57	-20,096	44	1,111	19
EUR	694,962	31	85,389	57	-109,031	48	23,642	17
GBP	229,991	55	-20,371	42	34,154	65	-13,783	31
JPY	277,272	94	-103,848	8	107,566	88	-3,718	46
CHF	56,353	83	-14,910	16	25,967	87	-11,057	21
CAD	198,528	60	-49,332	9	56,052	94	-6,720	8
AUD	196,866	55	-75,110	20	86,432	82	-11,322	25
NZD	57,676	75	-12,817	22	16,236	82	-3,419	9
MXN	199,078	37	31,297	58	-33,883	41	2,586	28
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	67,068	63	9,346	47	-11,022	52	1,676	50
Bitcoin	19,603	99	-1,746	40	903	0	843	32

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso, Euro & US Dollar Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (58 percent), the Euro (57 percent) and the US Dollar Index (57 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (8 percent), the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.7 percent)
EuroFX (56.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (56.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (41.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (42.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (12.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (46.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (41.2 percent)
Bitcoin (40.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (59.6 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (22 percent) and the Australian Dollar (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-50 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-38 percent), the Mexican Peso (-20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (22.7 percent)
EuroFX (-7.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-37.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-45.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-1.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-0.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-19.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-1.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-19.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-17.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-4.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-50.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-40.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.4	22.6	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	69.5	7.8
– Net Position:	18,985	-20,096	1,111
– Gross Longs:	27,571	9,671	4,441
– Gross Shorts:	8,586	29,767	3,330
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.6	43.9	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.4	-7.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 85,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	56.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	72.3	8.0
– Net Position:	85,389	-109,031	23,642
– Gross Longs:	210,834	393,348	79,333
– Gross Shorts:	125,445	502,379	55,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	48.4	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.4	-5.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	59.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	44.7	15.7
– Net Position:	-20,371	34,154	-13,783
– Gross Longs:	63,712	136,888	22,325
– Gross Shorts:	84,083	102,734	36,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	64.8	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.5	37.4	-24.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -103,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	69.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	31.0	16.4
– Net Position:	-103,848	107,566	-3,718
– Gross Longs:	37,641	193,460	41,836
– Gross Shorts:	141,489	85,894	45,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	88.1	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	-1.9	12.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	67.8	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	21.7	35.9
– Net Position:	-14,910	25,967	-11,057
– Gross Longs:	8,888	38,201	9,178
– Gross Shorts:	23,798	12,234	20,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	86.6	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	18.4	-11.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	67.2	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	39.0	20.5
– Net Position:	-49,332	56,052	-6,720
– Gross Longs:	25,418	133,433	33,889
– Gross Shorts:	74,750	77,381	40,609
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	94.3	7.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	4.9	-13.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -75,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	68.9	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.8	25.0	17.2
– Net Position:	-75,110	86,432	-11,322
– Gross Longs:	32,805	135,553	22,592
– Gross Shorts:	107,915	49,121	33,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.0	82.2	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.0	-17.8	4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	68.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	40.4	11.0
– Net Position:	-12,817	16,236	-3,419
– Gross Longs:	14,332	39,509	2,907
– Gross Shorts:	27,149	23,273	6,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	81.7	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-18.3	-4.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	68.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	85.0	1.6
– Net Position:	31,297	-33,883	2,586
– Gross Longs:	57,470	135,287	5,745
– Gross Shorts:	26,173	169,170	3,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	41.1	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	20.1	-9.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	46.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	63.3	2.4
– Net Position:	9,346	-11,022	1,676
– Gross Longs:	29,781	31,449	3,265
– Gross Shorts:	20,435	42,471	1,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	52.3	50.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	5.9	-10.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.0	8.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.0	3.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,746	903	843
– Gross Longs:	15,495	1,599	1,468
– Gross Shorts:	17,241	696	625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	93.8	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.3	78.9	10.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

02 Nov

RoboForex Unveils Commission Schemes for CopyFX Traders on MT5

RoboForex, a well-established financial brokerage company, has unveiled new commission structures designed to empower skilled traders to maximise their potential earnings through the Performance Fee and Subscription Fee models while using the MT5 platform.

RoboForex has expanded its CopyFX service on the MT5 platform with meticulously crafted commission schemes tailored to create a balanced economic framework for the benefit of both traders and investors. The new “Performance Fee” and “Subscription Fee” schemes aim to foster a conducive trading environment where commissions align harmoniously with the profitability of investors’ trades.

Under the Performance Fee scheme, traders earn a portion of the overall profit generated by their subscribed investors from all deals copied for all subscription time. Alternatively, the Subscription Fee scheme ensures traders a fixed commission.

It should be noted that investors only incur the fee if the overall result turns out to be profitable.

A Symbiotic Relationship Between Traders and Investors

This initiative promotes a mutually beneficial relationship between traders and investors. Skilled traders can explore additional income streams, as their commissions are directly linked to the profits investors earn through copied transactions. In parallel, investors have the flexibility to select traders based on their performance, creating an ecosystem where traders are motivated to enhance their trading strategies. Consequently, higher profits for investors translate into more substantial commissions for traders.

What CopyFX Can Offer Clients on MT5

CopyFX on MT5 offers a combination of cost-effectiveness with a minimal deposit requirement of 100 USD. It also provides a secure, flexible, and user-friendly investment management infrastructure. With just an MT5 hedge account, traders and investors can access one of the most celebrated trading terminals in the market. Traders can use one of the best terminals on the market with cutting-edge analytical tools and lowest ping VPS from MetaQuotes. All the essential tools for copying transactions and acquiring subscribers to MT5 accounts are readily accessible in the Members Area under the “Investments” section. Notably, fees are only charged to investors when trades result in profits.

About CopyFX

Established in 2012, CopyFX is RoboForex’s flagship copy-trading platform, ingeniously designed to bridge the gap between novice investors and experienced traders. This innovative system empowers investors to enhance their trading skills by seamlessly subscribing to and replicating the strategies of seasoned traders. Expert traders, in turn, have the opportunity to earn commissions through followers’ strategic adoption.

CopyFX is available across RoboForex’s MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, and R StocksTrader accounts. It offers an enhanced trading experience by extending its robust functionalities through seamless integration with the R StocksTrader and R MobileTrader applications, ensuring a genuinely versatile, multi-device trading journey.

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Nov

Will BOE help Sterling break out of downtrend?

By ForexTime

Bank of England unlikely to change benchmark rate today
“Hawkish hold” could keep Sterling supported, though still stuck in downtrend
GBPUSD bulls must first conquer 21-day SMA resistance
1.2130 region offering support since late-September
GBPUSD likeliest to trade within 1.2025 – 1.2304 range over one week

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates at 5.25% today.

This is in tune with current market pricing, with only a 29% chance of another hike by February.

Further hikes may be needed if the bank gets more evidence of persistent inflation.

Other data since the last BOE meeting has been broadly soft with weak GDP and PMIs in September and October stuck in contractionary territory so signalling a gloomy growth outlook.

This implies the bar is relatively high now for another rate hike, especially due to the slightly surprising unchanged decision at the September meeting.

Updated economic projections and the press conference may allow policymakers to show their hand.

Higher inflation forecasts, with the 2% target being hit halfway through 2025, might imply rates need to stay higher for longer.

However, BOE Governor Bailey may stress the lagged effects of this tightening cycle, with higher mortgage rates still to hit many households.

Market rate expectations are noticeably lower after the summer’s repricing with the first rate cut fully priced in by September 2024.

How much caution there is towards the poor outlook compared to the potential re-emergence of upside risks to inflation will be key.

A “hawkish hold” should see GBP relatively well supported as it battles to break out of its long-term downtrend.

From a technical perspective …

A bear channel, with a series of lower highs and lower lows, has been in place since the mid-July top above 1.31.

For immediate consideration, GBPUSD bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) must first secure a daily close above its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Further resistance northwards may arrive at:

1.220: upper boundary of its bear channel
1.22889: intraday high on October 24th
1.2300: psychologically-important level, close to 50 Fibonacci level from GBPUSD’s June 2021 – September 2022 peak-to-trough action

Looking the other way, the 1.2130 region should offer strong support, as has largely been the case over the past five weeks.

Ultimate immediate-term support may arrive around the recent cycle low in early October which sits at 1.20372.

The support and resistance levels listed above fits nicely with the forecasted trading range, as per Bloomberg’s FX model, which cites a …

74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2025 – 1.2304 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Nov

Fed/Treasury announcements may trigger USDInd breakout

By ForexTime

Fed/Treasury announcements today may spike FX volatility
USInd has climbed 3 months in a row
Bullish momentum stalling as traders await new catalyst for breakout
Dollar bulls will look to extend uptrend by 265 points
Dollar bears hoping for potential 120 point move south

The USDInd may see a volatility-triggering event today (Wednesday, November 1st).

Wild price swings for the USDInd would likely owe to two pivotal decisions out of the U.S:

US Treasury refunding announcement at 12:30 GMT
Fed rate decision @ 18:00 GMT

The market’s general expectation is for a pause in US interest rate hikes, owing partially to rising bond yields which most analysts see as tantamount to a rate hike.

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are hovering just below the psychological 5% level, though remains at their highest levels since 2007. And we know that the US dollar tends to have a positive correlation with Treasury yields (both are likelier to move in the same direction).

So, we look to the USDInd, which tracks how the US dollar performs against a basket of its G10 peers including EUR, GBP, JPY and others.

USDInd uptrend stalls, breakout imminent?

Note that the USDInd has closed stronger/bullish for the last 3 months.

However, October also saw the shortest trading range (the difference between the highest price and the lowest price within that month):

August: 283 points
September: 333 points
October: 189 points

Such “thinning” monthly trading ranges suggest that the bullish momentum for USDInd is waning, though still intact.

On the weekly and daily time frames, bullish flags are seen, lasting for 5 weeks and 27 days respectively.

Flag patterns are continuation patterns expected to break out in the direction of the trend (flagpole) preceding the range/sideways movement (flag).

Hence, the “flags” on both the weekly and daily timeframes imply that traders are waiting for a new catalyst that would determine the next big move for USDInd.

How might USDInd react?

If the announcement out of either the Treasury or the Fed today results in US yields resuming its uptrend, then US dollar bulls may go charging on.

From a technical perspective, more gains may arrive if we see a strong breakout above the flag’s resistance around 106.87, the flag’s resistance which is being tested currently).

A stronger bullish signal may be derived especially if USDInd posts highs above 107.37, its highest price year-to-date.

With the flagpole used as an estimate for a flag’s measured move objective …

Dollar bulls will be looking for moves to the upside around 265 points.

However, dollar-longs (those hoping that prices will move higher) may experience confrontation at key resistance levels ahead, notably:

107.89: intraday high on November 21, 2022, and a key battleground for bears and bulls in the past
110.21: the 261.8 Fibonacci level when drawn from September 30th’s intraday low to the October 3rd intraday high.

USDInd bears (those hoping prices will move lower) on the other hand will be looking for dovish comments and action from the US Federal Reserve, or a less-than-expected amount of securities to be auctioned by the Treasury (currently expected to total US $114 billion).

This may result in the US index ultimately declining back towards:

106.124: the 161.8 Fibonacci level
105.602: the flags support zone

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 56

COT Release delayed to Monday due to CFTC Holiday Schedule

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

GBPUSD bears could mean business after dragging prices back below a key resistance level.

Key UK data

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 1 in 10 chance of a 25-basis point BoE hike in December.

Dollar volatility

Technical forces

A solid daily close above 1.2320 may encourage a move back toward the 200-day SMA at 1.2430

Should prices fail to push back above 1.2320, bears could drag the currency pair toward the next key support at 1.2080 and 1.1930 – a level not seen since February 2023.

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 73% chance that GBPUSD trades within the 1.2109 – 1.2396 range this week.

The incoming US inflation data, speeches from Fed officials and threat of a potential US government shutdown could rock the dollar next week.

US October CPI Report

US data + Fed speeches

Possible US Government shutdown

Technical forces

EUR/USD technical analysis

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

Speculators push Australian Dollar bets higher as RBA possibly to raise rate

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso, Euro & US Dollar Index

New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates at 5.25% today.

Further hikes may be needed if the bank gets more evidence of persistent inflation.

Higher inflation forecasts, with the 2% target being hit halfway through 2025, might imply rates need to stay higher for longer.

A “hawkish hold” should see GBP relatively well supported as it battles to break out of its long-term downtrend.

From a technical perspective …

For immediate consideration, GBPUSD bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) must first secure a daily close above its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2025 – 1.2304 range over the next one-week period.

The USDInd may see a volatility-triggering event today (Wednesday, November 1st).

The market’s general expectation is for a pause in US interest rate hikes, owing partially to rising bond yields which most analysts see as tantamount to a rate hike.

USDInd uptrend stalls, breakout imminent?

Hence, the “flags” on both the weekly and daily timeframes imply that traders are waiting for a new catalyst that would determine the next big move for USDInd.