Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 56

Murrey Math Lines 28.09.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has reached the oversold area. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 8/8 (0.9277) level, rebound from it, and drop to the support at 6/8 (0.9155). The scenario can be cancelled by breaking the 8/8 (0.9277) level. In this case, the quotes could reach the resistance at +1/8 (0.9334).

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, following a rebound from the 8/8 (0.9277) level on H4, the price decline could be additionally supported by a breakout of the lower line of the VoltyChannel.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold quotes and the RSI are in the oversold area. In such circumstances, the quotes are expected to surpass the 0/8 (1875.00) level, rising to the resistance at 2/8 (1890.62). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of the -1/8 (1867.19) level, which will send the quotes down to the support at -2/8 (1859.38).

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is too far from the current price so the price rise could be supported by breaking the 0/8 (1875.00) level on H4.

XAUUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

RoboMarkets Integrates with TradingView to Enhance Trading Opportunities

RoboMarkets, a European broker company, announces its integration with TradingView, a leading platform for charts and analysis. RoboMarkets clients can now implement their trading strategies on TradingView and analyse their performance with a wide range of charting and analysis tools.

Through this integration, RoboMarkets products are made available to a broader audience, including investors who rely on cutting-edge analytics tools to identify opportunities when opening new positions. The goal of this partnership is to provide a seamless and superior trading experience. RoboMarkets clients can now simply connect their accounts to TradingView and trade direclty on the platform, eliminating the need to switch between terminals. Users who do not have an active trading account can open one and instantly link it to TradingView through a user-friendly interface.

TradingView is a platform for charting and trading, enabling users to conduct technical and fundamental analysis with user-friendly tools, while also communicating with each other through the largest social network for investors. Thanks to the integration with TradingView, RoboMarkets clients can now access various advanced analysis tools, including charting tools, market data and technical indicators. Furthermore, they can explore new strategies tested by millions of active traders in TradingView’s fast-growing global community.

About RoboMarkets

RoboMarkets is a financial broker company operating under CySEC license № 191/13. RoboMarkets offers investment services in many European countries and provides traders working in financial markets with access to its proprietary platforms. Visit www.robomarkets.com to learn more about the company’s products and business.

About Tradingview

TradingView is the world’s leading charting platform and a vibrant community used by over 50 million traders around the globe. TradingView empowers its users with best-in-class charting tools, live market data, a comprehensive analytical suite, and trading integrations with selected partners.

It is a unique space where market enthusiasts can chart, chat and trade in one place. Whether you are a crypto advocate interested in btc usd, a forex trader following the dxy index, or a value investor looking for hidden gems with a stock screener — TradingView stores perks and benefits for everyone.

Beyond premier user experience, TradingView provides solutions for businesses, including advertising, news partnerships, market widgets, charting libraries, and broker integrations.

“Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69.88% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.”

Yen’s Downward Trajectory Continues as Market Anticipates BOJ’s Move

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is drawing nearer to the closely watched 150.00 level, currently experiencing most of its activity around 148.40, as of Monday. The market remains in anticipation of potential financial interventions from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ has maintained its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, leaving the yen lingering near ten-month lows.

Last Friday, the BOJ opted to sustain the negative interest rate at -0.10% per annum. The Governor of the central bank highlighted the necessity for additional time to scrutinize the economy and assess the data. For currency market participants and those observing the yen exchange rate, the key concern is not the rate decision per se, but the absence of indications regarding any alterations in the monetary policy framework.

USD/JPY currency pair technical analysis

The H4 chart illustrates that USD/JPY has reached the projected target of a growth wave at 148.44 and underwent a correction to 147.33. The market has finalized a growth structure to 148.47 and is currently forming a consolidation range beneath this level. An upward breakout is anticipated, with the price potentially advancing to 149.42. Upon reaching this level, a correction to 148.44 may occur, followed by a rise to 150.50. The MACD oscillator substantiates this scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero and pointing strictly upwards.

On the H1 chart, a consolidation range has emerged around 148.33. The market is currently on an upward trajectory, aiming for 148.70, with the potential to extend to 149.90. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, as its signal line, having rebounded from 50, is directed strictly upwards.

The yen continues its descent, with market participants keenly observing any signs of change in the BOJ’s monetary policy framework. Technical analysis suggests potential further growth for USD/JPY, but traders will closely watch for developments and adjust their positions accordingly.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Trade Of The Week: Is the USDJPY a ticking timebomb?

By ForexTime 

The USDJPY has kicked off the new trading week by touching its highest level since November 2022.

Yen bears are clearly in power, with the Japanese yen currently the worst performing G10 currency year-to-date, shedding roughly 11.8% against the dollar.

Last Friday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged and kept its dovish stance despite high inflation. While the policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ remains a key driving force behind the USDJPY’s upside, the threat of government intervention could frighten bulls down the road.

Taking a trip down memory lane, the BoJ intervened back in September 2022 when the yen weakened to 145.90. Two more interventions followed in October after the Yen fell below 150.

Given how the currency is weaker than last year when Japan acted, investors remain on high alert with much chatter around 150 acting as a key level that could trigger government intervention.

It is worth keeping in mind that a weakening Yen results in higher import prices. This is transferred to producers, boosting expectations for higher inflation with consumers feeling the pain. Such a development could be a headache for policymakers, especially when factoring in how Japan’s headline and core inflation remain above the BOJ’s 2% target.

With all the above said, the threat of government intervention has made the USDJPY a ticking timebomb that could explode at any moment…

Here are 3 factors that could impact the currency pair this week:

  1. Fed speeches + US August PCE report

A host of Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be under the spotlight this week.

Last week’s FOMC meeting concluded with Powell indicating that rates will remain “higher for longer”. Should policymakers strike a hawkish tone and reinforce last week’s messaging, the USDJPY could push higher as expectations rise around the Fed hiking rates once more hike in 2023.

Regarding the August PCE report, markets expect the August PCE report to show headline prices accelerated 0.5% month-over-month after July’s 0.2% increase while the core PCE deflator is forecast to rise 0.2%, same as July. The core personal consumption expenditures price index for projected to rise 3.9% year-over-year in August, down from the 4.2% seen in July.

Ultimately, more signs of cooling inflationary pressures may counteract the argument around the Fed “keeping rates higher for longer”, weakening the USDJPY as a result.

  1. Japan data dump

Investors will be dished out some key economic reports from Japan on Friday.

All eyes will be on the Tokyo inflation data for September, jobless rate, industrial production, and retail sales figures for August which could provide insight into the health of Japan’s economy.

  • Should the overall economic data from Japan print above market expectations, this may boost sentiment towards the Japanese economy – pulling the USDJPY lower as the yen strengthens.
  • If overall economic data disappoints, sentiment toward the Japanese economy could take a hit – pushing the USDJPY higher as the yen weakens.
  1. Technical forces

The USDJPY is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. However, prices are slowly approaching overbought conditions while bulls displaying slight hesitation due to key fundamental forces.

  • The current upside could take prices towards the 150.00 psychological level. Beyond this point, the next key level of interest is the 2022 high at 151.94.
  • Should bulls get cold amid intervention fears, prices could slip back below 147.50, 146.70, and 144.90, respectively.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Week Ahead: Will EURUSD hit new 6-month low?

By ForexTime 

  • Final week of Q3 2023 may prove relatively less hectic for markets
  • EURUSD still set to uncover trading opportunities
  • Eurozone data may point to even-darker economic outlook
  • US dollar could be boosted by PCE Deflators, hawkish Fed speak
  • Bloomberg model: 74% chance EURUSD trades within 1.0542 – 1.0770

 

Managed to catch your breath yet after such a hectic week in the markets?

At least the coming ahead may prove to be less eventful in comparison, providing a relative breather before we enter the final quarter of 2023.

 

Still, EURUSD traders are bound to discover fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

Key data releases from either side of the Atlantic should move the world’s most-traded FX pair.

 

But first, here’s a quick list of major events and data releases due in the final week of September:

Monday, September 25

  • EUR: Germany IFO business climate (Sept)
  • USD: Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Tuesday, September 26

  • EUR: Speeches by ECB’s Robert Holzmann, Philip Lane
  • USD: US consumer confidence (Sept)

Wednesday, September 27

  • JPY: Bank of Japan meeting minutes
  • CNH: China industrial profits (Aug)
  • EUR: Germany consumer confidence (Oct)

Thursday, September 28

  • AUD: Australia retail sales (Aug)
  • EUR: Germany CPI (Sept); Eurozone economic and consumer confidence (Sept)
  • USD: US weekly initial jobless claims; 3Q GDP (3rd estimate)
  • USD: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
  • Nike quarterly earnings

Friday, September 29

  • JPY: Tokyo CPI (Sept); jobless rate, industrial production, and retail sales (Aug)
  • GBP: UK 2Q GDP (final)
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI (Sept); Germany unemployment (Sept)
  • USD: US PCE deflator, consumer spending (Aug); speech by New York Fed President John Williams

 

Data to show still-gloomy Eurozone economy?

Markets have of late been growing more concerned about the Eurozone’s economic prospects.

After all, Germany, the largest economy in the bloc, is widely expected to see its economy shrink for 2023.

And that’s according to economists, the OECD, and even the Bundesbank – Germany’s own central bank.

Amid such a darkening economic outlook, comes also the fact that the Eurozone’s consumer price index (CPI) – which measures headline inflation – remains more than twice the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

The above combo (economic woes + stick inflation) is set to bind the hands of ECB hawks (policymakers who want to send interest rates higher) from triggering yet another rate hike.

At the time of writing, markets are pricing in a mere 24% chance that the ECB can trigger one final 25-basis point hike by January 2024.

To oversimplify …

Greater economic woes = ECB unable to hike, despite sticky inflation = lower EURUSD

 

 

Then, on the USD side of the equation …

Fed speak, US data to offer clues on last Fed rate hike

Several Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are due to make public speeches in the week ahead.

Such commentary comes hot on the heels after this week’s FOMC meeting (Sept 19-20th), which concluded with Chair Powell pressing home the “higher-for-longer” message.

That is to say, the US central bank is expecting to:

  • hike by another 25-basis points before end-2023 (markets are predicting a 53% chance for one more Fed rate hike by December)
  • keep US interest rates at their peak above 5% for a longer-than-previously expected length of time
  • lower their benchmark rates by “only” 50 basis points in 2024, which is half of the 100-bps in rate cuts previously forecasted by FOMC officials (via their “dot plot) back in June.

Set against such expectations, Powell and co. may be looking to further impress their hawkish messaging onto traders and investors worldwide in this final week of September.

As things stand, existing expectations for the Fed’s policy settings have already lifted the benchmark US dollar index to its highest levels since March.

NOTE: The Euro accounts for 57.6% of this US dollar index, which measures how the greenback performs against a basket of major peers, including the Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc.

 

Also look out for Friday’s release (Sept 29th) of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Deflator.

That set of data is expected to show a mixed picture, based on current forecasts by economists:

  • PCE Deflator month-on-month (Aug 2023 vs. July 2023): 0.5% estimate.
    If so, that would be higher than July’s 0.2% month-on-month number
  • PCE Deflator year-on-year (Aug 2023 vs. Aug 2022): 3.5% estimate.
    If so, that would be higher than July’s 3.3% year-on-year number
  • PCE Core Deflator month-on-month: 0.2% estimate.
    If so, that would match July’s 0.2% month-on-month number
  • PCE Core Deflator year-on-year: 3.9% estimate.
    If so, that would be lower than July’s 4.2% year-on-year number

 

 

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

  • EURUSD may be dragged to a fresh 6-month low if the coming week’s data out of Germany/Eurozone further sours the bloc’s economic outlook and narrows the ECB’s chances at one last rate hike in this cycle, while the US PCE Deflators and Fed speak strengthen the case for one final Fed rate hike in this cycle.
  • EURUSD may be offered relief and move back higher on better-than-expected economic data out of the Eurozone/Germany, while the US PCE Deflators come in below forecasts which dilute the case for one final Fed rate hike in this cycle.

 

Key levels

At the time of writing, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 74% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.0542 – 1.0770 range over the next one-week period.

Here are some notable price levels within that range for further consideration:
POTENTIAL RESISTANCE

  • 1.06800: support turned resistance level since Dec 2022
  • 1.07369: intraday high on Sept 20th, also around 21-day simple moving average (SMA)
  • 1.07700: upper bound of Bloomberg’s FX model

POTENTIAL SUPPORT

  • 1.06170: intraday low on Sept 21st
  • 1.06000: psychologically-important level
  • 1.05160 – 1.0542: price region between Q1 2023 intraday low and lower bound of Bloomberg model forecasted range

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 19.09.2023 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern on H4 near the support level. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The pullback target could be the resistance level of 1.0720. However, the price could drop to 1.0625 and continue the downtrend without testing the resistance.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The pullback target might be 147.45. However, the price could rise to 148.50 and continue the uptrend without testing the support.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

EURGBP has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target could be 0.8655. Upon testing and breaking this level, the price could continue the uptrend. However, the quotes might correct to 0.8610 before rising.

EURGBP

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Coverage Account – Bucketing and Auto Hedging Plugin for MT5 by Your Bourse

Coverage Account – Bucketing and Auto Hedging Plugin for MT5 by Your Bourse

The Coverage Plugin in MT5 is a powerful tool that enables various functions and capabilities within the trading platform. Its primary function is to accumulate opened position volumes from the trading account on the same MT5 server. However, it offers much more than that. In this article, we will explore the features and setup process of the Coverage Plugin, and delve into different scenarios where it can be utilised effectively.

Understanding the Coverage Plugin

The Coverage Plugin in MT5 serves multiple functions, including accumulating position volumes from the trading account on the same server. Additionally, the Your Bourse plugin offers several other capabilities:

  1. Volume Hedging: It enables hedging the volume of lots from the trading accounts to the coverage accounts. The function allows the accumulation of lots from one of the trading accounts to the trading account on the same or different servers.
  2. Symbol Mappings: This capability allows the translation of mapped symbols to core symbols or other mapped symbols. For example, it enables the transfer of volumes from EURUSD.m on the trading account to EURUSD in the coverage account.
  3. Exposure Auto Hedging: This functionality allows for exposure full or partial hedging from B-book to A-book with the possibility to set up a particular volume step increment.
  4. Conditional Hedging: Under certain conditions, such as when the order volume on the B-book exceeds five lots, all customised volume increments can be directed to the A-book coverage account.

Using Coverage Account Auto Hedging Functionality

The Coverage Hedging functionality can be used in various scenarios to suit different trading needs. Here are a few examples:

  1. Common Coverage Scenario: In this scenario, the trades opened or closed will be mirrored in the coverage accounts. This functionality can be enabled in MT5 Administrator.
  2. Mapping Symbols Scenario: This scenario involves transferring orders from mapped symbols in the trading account to core symbols or other mapped symbols on the coverage account. This can be easily configured from the YourBourse portal. When trades are executed on the trading account, corresponding orders will be opened on the coverage account.
  3. Unconditional Hedging Scenario: In this scenario, orders placed in the B-book trading account will be transferred to the B-book coverage account, and an increment value can be configured to be added to the A-book coverage account. The specified increment value will be automatically added to the A-book coverage account for each volume traded on the B-book account.
  4. Conditional Hedging Scenario: In this scenario, orders placed in B-book will be transferred to the B-book coverage account, and, based on specified conditions, a customised increment value will be added to the A-book coverage account. This transfer will occur only if the volume of the order exceeds a predefined unhedged threshold and therefore the position will be hedged.

Setting up Coverage Accounts

The Coverage Plugin consists of several important elements that can be configured on the Your Bourse portal.

To enable coverage hedging functionality, you need to install the coverage plugin, configure the rules on the Your Bourse portal, create trading and coverage accounts, and set up routing rules.

Conclusion

The Coverage Plugin in MT5 provides traders with a range of functionalities and features to enhance their trading experience. By understanding its setup process and various scenarios in which it can be utilised, traders can effectively hedge volumes, map symbols, and customise increments between trading and coverage accounts. The Coverage Plugin offers a versatile tool for risk management and trading strategies on the MT5 platform.

About Your Bourse

Your Bourse offers software solutions for the retail and institutional MT4/MT5 brokers. Including: MT5 gateway & MT4 bridge, multi-asset liquidity aggregation, risk management, client profiling, real-time and historical reporting, MT4/MT5 hosting in all Equinix data centers with 99.999% SLA, plugins for MT4 & MT5 and FIX API connections for the B2B clients.

Trade Of The Week: GBPUSD Braces For Fed & BoE Combo

By ForexTime 

  • Fed/BoE combo could trigger GBPUSD volatility
  • Watch out for UK CPI report mid-week
  • Fed widely expected to leave rates unchanged
  • BoE expected to hike rates by 25 basis points
  • GBPUSD could see big moves, keep eye on 1.2430 level

A super central bank combo featuring the Federal Reserve and Bank of England may trigger extreme levels of volatility in the GBPUSD this week.

The past few months have been rocky for Sterling which is down roughly 2.4% in the second half of 2023 thus far.

Pound bears seem to be drawing strength from stagflation fears amid rising unemployment, sticky inflation, and stagnant economic growth.

Buying sentiment towards the currency has also been hit by disappointing economic data, further supporting Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments about the BoE nearing the end of its hiking cycle. Taking a glance at the technicals, the GBPUSD is approaching weekly support at 1.2310 – where the 50-week SMA resides.

The GBPUSD could see big moves this week and here and 3 reasons why…

  1. BoE rate decision

The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision will be on Thursday 21st September.

24 hours before the BoE decision, the latest UK inflation figures will be published with markets forecasting CPI to rise 7.0%, up from the July print of 6.8%. Core inflation is projected to cool 6.8% year-on-year, down from 6.9% in the previous month. This report could influence expectations around what the BoE does beyond September.

Markets widely expect the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This would be the 15th straight hike, taking the key rate to 5.5% – its highest level since 2007. The key question is whether this will be the final rate hike as policymakers weigh sticky inflation against growth concerns.

Traders are currently pricing in a 79% probability of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, with the probability of another 25 basis point hike by December currently standing at 45%.

  • If the BoE raises rates and signals the possibility of another 25 basis point hike before the end of 2023, this could propel the GBPUSD higher.
  • A dovish sounding BoE that hikes interest rates but hints that this could be the final move for the remainder of 2023 may drag the GBPUSD lower.
  1. Fed rate decision

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.5% at the September 19-20 meeting.

Investors will direct their attention towards the economic projections, dot plots and press conference by Jerome Powell which could offer clues on future rate hikes.

  • The GBPUSD may find itself under renewed pressure if the Fed signals one more interest rate increase in 2023.
  • Should the central bank hint that it could be done with hikes for the rest of 2023, this may weaken the dollar – pushing the GBPUSD higher as a result.
  1. Bearish technical forces

The GBPUSD remains under pressure on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs.

Prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. Bears are certainly in a position of power with the recent daily close below the 200-day SMA opening the doors to further downside.

  • Sustained weakness below 1.2430 could encourage a decline towards 1.2310 and 1.2250, respectively.
  • Should prices push back above the 200-day SMA at 1.2430, this could spark a rebound back toward the 1.2540 level and 1.2646 where the 100-day SMA resides.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Currency Speculators drop their Euro Bets to 43-Week Low on ECB Rates

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,004 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (2,712 contracts) and Bitcoin (193 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-23,151 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (-16,920 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,013 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-1,577 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-756 contracts), Mexican Peso (-650 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-620 contracts) and the British Pound (-210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Traders drop their Euro Bets to 43-Week Low on ECB Rates

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the dropping speculator positioning for the Euro Currency. Large speculative Euro positions dropped sharply this week by over -23,000 contracts and declined for a fourth consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now decreased for the seventh time in the past eight weeks as well as in nine out of the past eleven weeks.

The Euro speculative standing still remains in a highly bullish level with the net position at a total of +113,080 contracts currently. However, the net position has now fallen by a total of -46,783 contracts in just the past four weeks and by a total of -65,752 contracts over the past eight weeks.

Overall, the Euro net speculator level has been above the +100,000 contract level for forty-six straight weeks and ascended to a 137-week high with a total net position of +187,089 contracts on May 16th – the most bullish point since a total of 188,116 contracts was reached on September 29th of 2020.

The European Central Bank has helped dampen the sentiment for the Euro currency as the bank raised its rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent on Thursday but signaled that there may be no more rate hikes on the docket. The ECB also revised their economic growth projections lower with the bank seeing just 0.7 percent growth in 2023. Following the announcement, many participants are expecting not to see further rate rises and even possible rate cuts if the economy continues to deteriorate.

The Euro currency spot price (versus the US Dollar) has been retreating mightily and this week declined for a ninth consecutive week. The EUR/USD exchange rate closed at 1.0735 on Friday with the low of the week hitting the lowest level since March. The EUR/USD had been as high as 1.1310 on July 18th before starting on its current nine-week downtrend.

 


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index40,982376,07135-7,727631,65626
EUR743,75960113,08067-149,9813336,90138
GBP227,4375446,17488-51,168174,99468
JPY270,85492-98,71311106,64488-7,93137
CHF49,94570-9,3383112,35162-3,01350
CAD217,08074-41,8831549,27590-7,3926
AUD256,219100-79,5331194,99090-15,45715
NZD67,487100-14,6201417,25787-2,63719
MXN235,7205066,87180-71,492194,62141
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL34,9691913,17753-15,160461,98353
Bitcoin15,423732,232100-2,543031120

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (80 percent), EuroFX (67 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (11 percent), the Japanese Yen (11 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (35.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (30.5 percent)
EuroFX (67.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (77.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (87.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (88.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (31.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (7.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (15.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (80.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.5 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (97.1 percent)

 

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (42 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-44 percent), Brazilian Real (-26 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.5 percent)
EuroFX (-24.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-17.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-8.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-45.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-28.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-25.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-30.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-43.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-25.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.9 percent)
Bitcoin (41.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.4 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.419.311.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.538.17.0
– Net Position:6,071-7,7271,656
– Gross Longs:25,1457,9064,510
– Gross Shorts:19,07415,6332,854
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.163.525.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.9-6.614.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.655.512.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.475.77.5
– Net Position:113,080-149,98136,901
– Gross Longs:212,376412,96792,784
– Gross Shorts:99,296562,94855,883
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.433.337.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.726.7-20.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.835.414.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.557.911.9
– Net Position:46,174-51,1684,994
– Gross Longs:97,36580,44132,133
– Gross Shorts:51,191131,60927,139
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.817.067.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.48.7-23.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -98,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.167.813.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.628.416.2
– Net Position:-98,713106,644-7,931
– Gross Longs:38,247183,58936,043
– Gross Shorts:136,96076,94543,974
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.487.737.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.611.4-7.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.052.127.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.727.433.6
– Net Position:-9,33812,351-3,013
– Gross Longs:9,00926,01713,771
– Gross Shorts:18,34713,66616,784
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.962.050.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.614.7-27.2

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.660.814.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.938.118.0
– Net Position:-41,88349,275-7,392
– Gross Longs:40,298131,97631,767
– Gross Shorts:82,18182,70139,159
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.589.76.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.049.4-54.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -79,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.564.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.527.314.7
– Net Position:-79,53394,990-15,457
– Gross Longs:47,309164,96122,273
– Gross Shorts:126,84269,97137,730
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.189.614.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.728.7-24.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.962.85.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.637.29.0
– Net Position:-14,62017,257-2,637
– Gross Longs:14,79742,3953,420
– Gross Shorts:29,41725,1386,057
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.087.218.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.945.2-35.5

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.552.43.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.182.81.1
– Net Position:66,871-71,4924,621
– Gross Longs:93,022123,5757,268
– Gross Shorts:26,151195,0672,647
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.6 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.018.740.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.212.80.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.333.19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.676.43.8
– Net Position:13,177-15,1601,983
– Gross Longs:19,69611,5683,305
– Gross Shorts:6,51926,7281,322
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.646.052.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.621.624.1

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.10.87.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.617.25.3
– Net Position:2,232-2,543311
– Gross Longs:11,8931171,134
– Gross Shorts:9,6612,660823
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.020.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.7-66.9-7.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Yen keeps posting flags through ascent

By ForexTime 

  • USDJPY busy forming second flag since August, amidst year-to-date uptrend
  • JPY surged Monday after BoJ Governor Ueda offered hawkish policy clues
  • Yen bulls unable to build on Monday’s intraday low of 145.904.
  • USDJPY may look to close Monday’s gap down
  • Tomorrow’s US CPI to decide USDJPY’s immediate fate

USDJPY gapped down on Monday, September 11th’s market open.

The Yen surged at the onset of the trading week after Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of a first rate hike in Japan since 2007!

The stronger Yen resulted in an intraday low of 145.904 for USDJPY.

This FX pair closed Monday at a zone which could serve as a demand zone-base for a possible second flag, in its ascent from the lows of 141.53 printed on August 7th, 2023.

This close is also below the significant 261.8 Fibonacci level when drawn from 134.772,  January 6th  high to the lows of 16th January 2023 at 127.224 on the weekly chart.

 

Attentions turn to the USD side of USDJPY, with the pivotal US consumer price index due to be released tomorrow (Wednesday, September 13th).

Both bears and bulls will be looking for price action around key levels for pointers to the next impulse direction for the USDJPY.

 

Bulls will be looking to close Monday’s open gap as they climb to the flag’s resistance around 147.769

They will however have to contend with the psychologically important Fibonacci level at 261.8 at 146.985.

 

A bullish flag breakout could see a test of the 148.850 region which had resisted USDJPY bulls back in late-October/early-November 2022.

Further north, lies the potential resistance zone of the upward sloping channel drawn from January 5th, 2023.

 

USDJPY bears on the other hand will be looking for a strong close below the current bullish flag’s support, and also below the psychologically-important 146.00 line.

Such price action may indicate a reversion to its 50-EMA which is below and more than  2600 points away from the current price at the time of writing.

 

Ultimately, much of USDJPY’s immediate fate should rest on tomorrow’s US inflation data release.

  • A higher-than-expected CPI (consumer price index) that ramps up bets of one further Fed rate hike by end-2023 should bolster the US dollar and potentially send USDJPY higher.
  • However, a lower-than-expected CPI that solidifies hopes that the Fed is truly done with its rate hikes should soften the US dollar and potentially drag USDJPY lower.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

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