Forex and Currency News :: Page 56

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 56

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14 Jan

Currency Speculators push British Pound bets to highest since September

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Swiss Franc & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (13,751 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (10,619 contracts), the British Pound (5,529 contracts), the Japanese Yen (1,246 contracts), the Swiss Franc (823 contracts), Bitcoin (603 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (487 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-9,193 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,221 contracts), the EuroFX (-599 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-659 contracts) also having lower bets.

Currency Speculators continue to raise their British Pound bets to highest since September

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the recent gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling. The Pound Sterling speculative positioning increased this week for a second straight week and for the seventh time over the past ten weeks.

The GBP speculator position has now been in an overall bullish position for the past six weeks following a run of nine weeks in bearish territory from the beginning of October to the end of November.

This renewed bullishness has brought the net speculator standing (currently at +20,734 contracts) to the highest level in the past sixteen weeks, dating back to September 19th.

The British Pound Sterling’s exchange rate with the US Dollar has been on the move higher as well after finding a major support level at 1.2100 for a period of weeks in October and November. Since then, the GBPUSD currency pair has trended up with gains in seven out of the past nine weeks to a close this week at the 1.2753 threshold and just below the 200-week moving average at 1.2844.

Major Currencies – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (93 percent) and the EuroFX (71 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Brazilian Real (67 percent) and the Australian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (30 percent) and the Japanese Yen (41 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Bitcoin (42 percent) and the Swiss Franc (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (29.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (28.8 percent)
EuroFX (70.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (71.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (66.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (41.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (40.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (59.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (54.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (93.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (93.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (67.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.0 percent)
Bitcoin (42.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.0 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (47 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (45 percent), the Australian Dollar (36 percent) and the Japanese Yen (30 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-27.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-30.5 percent)
EuroFX (-10.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (37.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (42.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.6 percent)
Bitcoin (1.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-20.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.2	15.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	24.3	13.2
– Net Position:	2,910	-2,210	-700
– Gross Longs:	16,041	3,598	2,450
– Gross Shorts:	13,131	5,808	3,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	74.8	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.0	26.4	1.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 118,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	57.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	79.4	6.2
– Net Position:	118,877	-156,887	38,010
– Gross Longs:	208,473	409,738	82,429
– Gross Shorts:	89,596	566,625	44,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	30.5	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	7.3	7.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	44.0	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	57.3	15.0
– Net Position:	20,734	-22,875	2,141
– Gross Longs:	60,684	75,972	27,973
– Gross Shorts:	39,950	98,847	25,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	32.9	62.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-18.4	8.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	56.9	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.6	29.8	19.6
– Net Position:	-55,949	54,191	1,758
– Gross Longs:	41,364	113,876	40,937
– Gross Shorts:	97,313	59,685	39,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	60.1	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	-25.0	-8.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	46.1	31.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	41.1	27.8
– Net Position:	-4,392	2,524	1,868
– Gross Longs:	11,044	23,140	15,792
– Gross Shorts:	15,436	20,616	13,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	42.8	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.0	-44.9	30.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	54.7	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	55.7	14.1
– Net Position:	-7,380	-1,787	9,167
– Gross Longs:	42,286	93,842	33,353
– Gross Shorts:	49,666	95,629	24,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	50.4	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.9	-43.3	29.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	49.5	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.9	36.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-32,274	21,070	11,204
– Gross Longs:	47,326	77,374	28,218
– Gross Shorts:	79,600	56,304	17,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	32.9	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.7	-39.8	33.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	41.0	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	41.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,767	-202	1,969
– Gross Longs:	16,221	15,791	5,164
– Gross Shorts:	17,988	15,993	3,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	44.3	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.5	-46.4	30.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 88,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.9	42.7	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	77.4	1.0
– Net Position:	88,439	-94,006	5,567
– Gross Longs:	143,436	115,940	8,184
– Gross Shorts:	54,997	209,946	2,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.1	5.4	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-13.4	-2.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.2	24.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	67.9	2.0
– Net Position:	25,114	-27,756	2,642
– Gross Longs:	44,100	15,478	3,888
– Gross Shorts:	18,986	43,234	1,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	31.3	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	1.9	58.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.9	6.2	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.0	3.3	2.7
– Net Position:	-1,618	779	839
– Gross Longs:	20,654	1,654	1,561
– Gross Shorts:	22,272	875	722
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	84.5	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-0.3	-2.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Jan

Week Ahead: EURUSD on brink of major breakout?

By ForexTime

EURUSD braces for heavy event week

Keep eye on top-tier EU + US data

Speeches from central bank officials also in focus

Major breakout could be on horizon

First points of interest at 1.10 and 1.09

The EURUSD could be pumped with fresh life next week due to key economic data, speeches from central bank officials and threat of a partial US government shutdown.

Monday, 15th January

CNH: China medium-term lending facility rate
CAD: Canada existing home sales
EUR: Eurozone industrial production, Germany 2023 GDP report
World Economic Forum in Davos
US markets closed – Martin Luther King Jr. holiday

Tuesday, 16th January

EUR: Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
CAD: Canada CPI, housing starts
USD: US Empire Manufacturing, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speech
WSt30_m: Goldman Sachs earnings

Wednesday, 17th January

CNH: China GDP, retail sales and industrial production
EUR: Eurozone CPI, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
GBP: UK CPI
USD: US retail sales, industrial production, Fed Beige book, New York Fed President John Williams speech

Thursday, 18th January

AUD: Australia unemployment
NZD: New Zealand food prices
EUR: ECB minutes, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
JPY: Japan core machine orders, industrial production
USD: US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Friday, 19th January

CAD: Canada retail sales
JPY: Japan CPI, tertiary index
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
Deadline for avoiding partial US government shutdown

It has felt like the same old story for the EURUSD since the start of the new year with prices swinging within a range on the daily charts.

Given the exceptional list of major risk events over the coming week, a significant move could be around the corner…

Here are 4 factors to keep an eye on:

EU data dump + ECB President speech

It’s a week packed with crucial European economic reports that may influence expectations around when the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates this year.

Data from Germany, Europe’s largest economy will be under the spotlight with much focus on the 2023 growth figures, CPI and ZEW survey expectations. This will be complemented by the ECB meeting minutes for December’s meeting which will be scrutinized for fresh clues on the ECB’s next move. But the main course will be Christine Lagarde’s remarks during the World Economic Forum.

Traders are currently pricing in a 40% probability of a 25-basis point ECB rate cut by March 2024, with a move fully priced in for April.

The euro may weaken if overall economic data disappoints and Lagarde strikes a dovish tone in Davos – sending the EURUSD lower as a result.
Should overall economic data beat forecasts and Lagarde pushes back against rate cut bets, the euro could rise – elevating the EURUSD.

Key US data + Fed speeches

A barrage of top-tier US economic data has the potential to rock the dollar, impacting the EURUSD as a result.

Investors will be paying close attention to the latest retail sales figures, manufacturing data and consumer sentiment to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches from a host of Fed officials will be added to the mix, coupled with the beige book which could impact speculation around when US rates will be cut this year.

The latest hotter than expected US inflation report has slightly dented expectations around when the Fed will cut rates, but traders still see a 76% probability of a cut in March.

Stronger-than-expected data and hawkish remarks by Fed officials may boost the dollar as rate cut bets decline. This may pull the EURUSD lower.
Should overall US economic data disappoint, and Fed officials sound dovish, the dollar may weaken – pushing the EURUSD higher.

Possible partial government shutdown

The United States is facing a partial government shutdown deadline set to expire on January 19th.

Sentiment towards the US economy could take a hit, especially if a full shutdown happens beyond the February 2nd deadline. Given how this development is likely to influence the USD, its impact will most likely be seen on the EURUSD.

Technical forces

The EURUSD is respecting a bullish channel on the daily timeframe with a “golden cross” technical pattern in play. However, prices remain trapped within a 100-pip range with minor support at 1.1000 and resistance at 1.0900.

A strong breakout and daily close above 1.1000 could trigger a move towards the monthly resistance around 1.1100 and 1.1230 – a level not seen since mid-July 2023.
Should prices slip back below 1.0900, this could open a path back toward the 200-day SMA at 1.0840 and 1.0756.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

09 Jan

USDJPY: Bulls eye potential 250-pip move

By ForexTime

USDJPY bounces off neckline of double bottom

Upside presents a potential 250-pip move

US inflation data on Thursday in focus

Support at 200-EMA & resistance at 50-EMA

USDJPY bounced off the neckline of a daily double-bottom pattern after data showed inflation in Tokyo cooled for a second month in December.

Consumer prices slowed to 2.4% in December from 2.6% in the previous month. The core which excludes fresh food and energy prices cooled to 3.5% – its fourth consecutive month of decline. This data is likely to encourage the BoJ to retain its negative rates this month.

According to Thomas Bulkowski, in his book “Encyclopaedia of Chart Patterns”, this kind of double bottom pattern, (Adam and Adam) has

· A 16% breakeven failure rate.

· A 73% chance of meeting its target.

Worthy of note is the neckline crosses across a confluence of significant support levels which include.

· 143.674: The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

· 143.170: The 61.8 golden Fibonacci ratio (with Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from December 19th’s high to December 28th’s low).

At the time of writing USDJPY is bouncing off the 200-day EMA

The next key fundamental driver that may influence the currency pair will be the US Consumer Price Inflation data (CPI) due on Thursday. Headline inflation is expected to have ticked higher in December, while the annual core inflation is seen cooling to 3.8%. More signs of cooling inflationary pressures may stimulate Fed cut bets, weakening the USD as a result. USDJPY may remain range-bound as it waits for an injection of fresh volatility.

Redirecting our attention back to the technical…

If the neckline is not broken, USDJPY may rally for about 280 pips and contend with the following key resistance levels ahead.

· 144.853: A significant level close to the 100 Fibonacci retracement

· 145.477; its 50-day EMA.

However, if the Yen’s strength continues after the latest inflation data from Japan, we may see the confluence of key support levels give way.

The following levels may provide a temporary pause as it aims for new lows below the December 28th low of 140.29.

· 142.618: the 50.0 Fibonacci level

· 142.066 the 38.2 Fibonacci level

· 141.383: the 23.6 Fibonacci level

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jan

RoboMarkets Pro Clinches Prestigious Award for Best Professional Trading Conditions in Europe

RoboMarkets Pro, a brand of RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH, has been honoured with the prestigious “Best Professional Trading Conditions (Europe)” award at the Professional Trader Awards 2023.

This accolade underscores the company’s unwavering commitment to delivering exceptional service and innovative solutions to its clients in the trading industry.

RoboMarkets Pro offers several key benefits for professional clients, including:

Diverse Trading Instruments: access to over 12,000 instruments, including stocks, indices, ETFs, and currencies.
Advanced Trading Platforms: utilisation of cutting-edge platforms such as R StocksTrader and MetaTrader 4/5.
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High Execution Speeds and Tight Spreads: achieving execution as fast as 0.1 seconds and spreads starting from 0 points.
Higher Leverage Options: offering leverage up to 1:300.

The Professional Trader Awards, now in their fifth year and organised by Holiston Media, have become the gold standard for recognising excellence in the trading industry. These awards highlight the efforts of brokers who provide an ‘exclusive’ level of service, particularly for professional traders.

The rigorous selection process involves an initial nomination by the brokers themselves, followed by a voting phase where over 11,500 votes are cast by traders through their professional accounts. With more than 200 nominee companies across 17 categories, this year’s awards were the most competitive to date.

RoboMarkets Pro stands tall among its peers, having demonstrated exceptional capabilities in tailoring trading conditions for professional traders in Europe. This award is a testament to the company’s dedication to excellence and its pivotal role in shaping the future of trading.

About RoboMarkets Pro

RoboMarkets Pro is the brand name of RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH. RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH is a German broker that’s supervised by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority under number 154068 and offers financial services to residents of EU/EEA countries.

Find more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on its website www.robomarkets.de.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Dec

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 29.12.2023 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.1040 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.1235. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price finding a foothold under 1.0845, which will mean a further decline to 1.0755.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is rising after a bearish correction. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 2060 is expected, followed by a rise to 2130. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price finding a foothold under 2015, which will mean a further decline to 1975.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is moving within a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 0.6315 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.6460. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price finding a foothold under 0.6165, which will mean a further decline to 0.6155.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Dec

USDInd breaks down ahead of US inflation data

By ForexTime

USDInd now trading at lowest since end-July
Holiday season tends to see lighter trading activity
Still, today’s US inflation data release could trigger a pre-Christmas move for the greenback
Softer-than-expected PCE deflators may send USDInd sharply lower

The dollar has made fresh cycle lows as markets head into the holiday period and a time of thin liquidity and volumes.

That means price action can be whippy with little rhyme or reason for the moves. Many big trading desks have wound up their positions, so staffing levels and activity are much lighter than normal.

The most important data release today will be the US November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).

Consensus expects the Fed’s favoured inflation measure to have remained steady at +0.2% month-on-month (November 2023 vs. October 2023).

The year-on-year (November 2023 vs. November 2022) figure is expected to ease lower to 2.8%, and 3.3% for the Core PCE Deflator; both lower by 0.2 percentage points than October’s year-on-year prints.

A softer than expected PCE Deflator report could see the dollar wave decisively goodbye to support around 102 and move sharply lower.

After all, there is currently a 14% chance of a rate cut at the first FOMC meeting of the year in late January, which rises to above 94.5% at its mid-March decision.

However, a surprise surge in inflationary pressures may force markets to push back bets for Fed rate cuts in 2024, while could offer some short-term relief for the US dollar.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Dec

Bank of Japan disappoints Yen bulls

By ForexTime

Today, Bank of Japan offered zero guidance on rate hike in 2024
USDJPY climbs well past 200-day SMA
Higher-than-expected Japan CPI this Friday may see USJPY test 200-day SMA for support
Lower-than-expected Japan CPI may see USDJPY test 21-day SMA for resistance
Bloomberg model: 74% chance USDJPY will trade between 142.23-146.36 this week

Today, the BoJ maintained its benchmark rate at minus 0.1%, and made no changes to its yield curve control programme.

More disappointingly for JPY bulls (those hoping prices would move higher) …

the Japanese central bank failed to offer any hints of a rate hike in 2024.

This keeps Japan as the last economy that’s still holding on to negative interest rates (-0.1%).

How did the Yen react?

The absence of any “hawkish” clues prompted the Japanese Yen to weaken.

USDJPY surged above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA – a widely followed technical indicator).

The BoJ’s signal today, or lack thereof, also further fuelled the technical rebound in USDJPY, with the latter’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) having broken below the 30 mark and into “oversold” territory.

NOTE: From the textbook perspective of technical analysis, an asset’s prices tends to rebound once its 14-day RSI breaks below 30.

In fact, at the time of writing, JPY is currently weaker against all of its G10 peers.

NOTE: Markets tend to boost the currency if they believe that economy’s interest rates are going to move higher, and vice versa.

How low could JPY go?

Perhaps not much, as long as markets can continue to hope for a BoJ rate hike in 2024.

And the earlier the better for Yen bulls.

To be clear, markets are still expecting the BoJ to exit its negative interest rates regime and finally jump on the rate-hike bandwagon in April.

Markets are still predicting an 86% chance of such an event, though those 86% odds are slightly lower compared to the 94% chance given prior to today’s BoJ policy decision.

As long as markets continue to hope for a BoJ rates liftoff, that should keep the Yen supported and limit its downside in the interim.

After all, Japan’s headline inflation (as measured by the consumer price index – CPI) has remained consistently above the BoJ’s target of 2% since April 2022.

Evidently, the BoJ wants to get further confirmation that inflation will remain sticky above 2%, before exiting its negative interest rates regime.

So with that in mind …

Look out for the next Japan inflation numbers due Friday (Dec 22nd)!

Economists are forecasting that Japan’s national CPI (consumer price index – which measures inflation) rose by 2.8% year-on-year (November 2023 vs. November 2022).

If so, that would be slightly lower than October’s 3.3% year-on-year CPI figure; but 2.8% is still well above the BoJ’s 2% inflation target.

How might JPY move before Christmas?

Bloomberg’s FX forecast model predicts a 74% chance that USDJPY will move between 142.23-146.36 this week.

If Japan’s national CPI this Friday comes in above the market-expected 2.8%, paving the way for a BoJ rate hike, that could see USDJPY re-testing its 200-day SMA for support.
A daily close below the 200-day SMA may restore USDJPY to revisit the recent cycle low at 140.943 going into the new year.

However, a lacklustre CPI figure this Friday that pushes back forecasts for a BoJ rate hike even further may extend USDJPY’s recovery.
JPY bulls may be enticed into testing this FX pair’s 21-day SMA for resistance before the long Christmas weekend.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

18 Dec

Trade of the Week: GBPUSD in for an early-Christmas cracker?

By ForexTime

GBPUSD has climbed about 4.9% so far in 2023
UK, US economic data to offer clues on BOE vs. Fed’s 2024 rates plan
Forecasted trading range: 1.2528 – 1.2788

Sterling is the second-best performing G10 currency against the US dollar so far in 2023.

At the time of writing, GBPUSD has about 4.9% in year-to-date gains, albeit with a couple of weeks left to go in the year.

The fact that Sterling is stronger against the US dollar so far this year is somewhat remarkable, in light of the UK’s ongoing economic woes.

Still, amid thinning market activity in this year-end period, traders are set to determine whether the year-to-date gains for “cable” (nickname for GBPUSD) will be extended, or thinned out, before 2023 officially comes to a close.

Events Watchlist

GBPUSD traders are set to react to these UK and US economic data to be released later this week:

Wednesday, Dec 20th: UK November consumer price index (CPI) – which measures inflation
Thursday, Dec 21st: US 3Q GDP (final print)
Friday, Dec 22nd: UK November retail sales and 3Q GDP (final print)
Friday, Dec 22nd: US PCE Deflator – the Federal Reserve’s preferred way of measuring inflation

For the market’s forecasts for each of the above data points, please refer to the FXTM Economic Calendar.

Why is the economic data important to GBPUSD traders?

Note that traders tend to boost the currency of the country that has higher interest rates.

Hence, markets will be using the data to anticipate what the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve might do to their respective interest rates in 2024.

Recall that, just last week, the Bank of England (BOE) threatened to keep its bank rate higher for longer, which is already at a 15-year high of 5.25%, with the UK central bank apparently still not yet done with its fight against inflation.

In contrast, also last week, the Federal Reserve a.k.a the Fed had forecasted that it will be cutting US interest rates in 2024.

Hence, no surprise that the Pound is about 0.9% stronger against the US dollar since this time last week (Dec 11th).

Potential Scenarios:

GBPUSD could be pushed higher if:

the UK inflation data comes in above market forecasts, justifying the BOE’s bias for keeping its bank rate “higher for longer”.
post-CPI gains for GBPUSD would have to be sustained by better-than-expected UK retail sales and GDP figures.
US 3Q GDP remains resilient while the PCE Deflators continue to ease lower, allowing the Fed to cut rates in 2024

However, GBPUSD could be dragged lower by:

a surprise uptick in the US PCE Deflators that threatens the Fed’s plans to lower US interest rates next year
lower-than-expected UK inflation data, retail sales, and GDP figures that once again highlight the risk of the UK economy falling into a recession.
The greater the damage to the UK economy, the less likely the BOE can afford to sustain its bank rate at this current 5.25% level.

NOTE: Higher interest rates are intended to cool down inflation by destroying demand in an economy. However, interest rates that are too high for too long risks sending an economy into a recession.

Key levels

The Bloomberg FX model forecasts a 75% chance that GBPUSD will trade between 1.2528 and 1.2788 this week.

Those levels serve as the general boundaries for GBPUSD’s expected trading range in this week leading up to Christmas.

Within that range, here are some key levels to look out for:

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE

1.27335: November 29th intraday high
1.27607: 38.2 Fibonacci level from GBPUSD’s long-term (June 2021 till September 2022) descent
1.27943: Dec 14th intraday high

POTENTIAL SUPPORT

21-day simple moving average (SMA)
200-day SMA

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 Dec

EUR/USD Finds Stability

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating stability, trading around the 1.0910 mark.

Last week was notable for the currency markets, as key financial updates were released. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank maintained their interest rates at 5.50% and 4.50% per annum, respectively. In the U.S., retail sales in November saw a modest increase of 0.3% month-on-month, following a decline in the previous month. Industrial production also showed growth, albeit slightly below expectations at 0.2%, compared to the anticipated 0.3%. This was a slight rebound from October’s decrease of 0.9%.

A significant development was the decline in the U.S. production PMI for December, which fell to 48.2 points, indicating potential concerns over high inflation levels.

With most critical data released, the currency market is now poised for a period of relative stability as it heads towards the Christmas season.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD H4 chart shows that the pair has established a consolidation range around 1.0888. Following an upward breakout, the price hit a local high of 1.1008 before correcting back to 1.0888 (testing from above). A new upward movement towards 1.1050 could initiate today. Upon reaching this level, a downward trend to 1.0727 may begin. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line positioned above zero and pointing upwards.

On the EUR/USD H1 chart, the pair has finished its correction, bouncing off 1.0888. A rising structure is forming towards 1.0970, which could extend to 1.1050. Once this level is reached, a downward movement towards the first target of 1.0725 might ensue. This technical scenario is backed by the Stochastic oscillator, which shows its signal line above 80 and indicates potential further rises to new highs.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 56

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Swiss Franc & Bitcoin

Currency Speculators continue to raise their British Pound bets to highest since September

Major Currencies – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

The EURUSD could be pumped with fresh life next week due to key economic data, speeches from central bank officials and threat of a partial US government shutdown.

EU data dump + ECB President speech

Key US data + Fed speeches

Possible partial government shutdown

Technical forces

USDJPY bounced off the neckline of a daily double-bottom pattern after data showed inflation in Tokyo cooled for a second month in December.

· A 16% breakeven failure rate.

· A 73% chance of meeting its target.

· 143.674: The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

· 143.170: The 61.8 golden Fibonacci ratio (with Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from December 19th’s high to December 28th’s low).

Redirecting our attention back to the technical…

· 144.853: A significant level close to the 100 Fibonacci retracement

· 145.477; its 50-day EMA.

· 142.618: the 50.0 Fibonacci level

· 142.066 the 38.2 Fibonacci level

· 141.383: the 23.6 Fibonacci level

The dollar has made fresh cycle lows as markets head into the holiday period and a time of thin liquidity and volumes.

The most important data release today will be the US November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).

A softer than expected PCE Deflator report could see the dollar wave decisively goodbye to support around 102 and move sharply lower.

However, a surprise surge in inflationary pressures may force markets to push back bets for Fed rate cuts in 2024, while could offer some short-term relief for the US dollar.

Today, the BoJ maintained its benchmark rate at minus 0.1%, and made no changes to its yield curve control programme.

the Japanese central bank failed to offer any hints of a rate hike in 2024.

How did the Yen react?

USDJPY surged above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA – a widely followed technical indicator).

How low could JPY go?

As long as markets continue to hope for a BoJ rates liftoff, that should keep the Yen supported and limit its downside in the interim.

Look out for the next Japan inflation numbers due Friday (Dec 22nd)!

How might JPY move before Christmas?

Sterling is the second-best performing G10 currency against the US dollar so far in 2023.

Events Watchlist

Why is the economic data important to GBPUSD traders?

Hence, markets will be using the data to anticipate what the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve might do to their respective interest rates in 2024.

Potential Scenarios:

Key levels