Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 54

RoboForex Unveils Commission Schemes for CopyFX Traders on MT5

RoboForex, a well-established financial brokerage company, has unveiled new commission structures designed to empower skilled traders to maximise their potential earnings through the Performance Fee and Subscription Fee models while using the MT5 platform.

RoboForex has expanded its CopyFX service on the MT5 platform with meticulously crafted commission schemes tailored to create a balanced economic framework for the benefit of both traders and investors. The new “Performance Fee” and “Subscription Fee” schemes aim to foster a conducive trading environment where commissions align harmoniously with the profitability of investors’ trades.

Under the Performance Fee scheme, traders earn a portion of the overall profit generated by their subscribed investors from all deals copied for all subscription time. Alternatively, the Subscription Fee scheme ensures traders a fixed commission.

It should be noted that investors only incur the fee if the overall result turns out to be profitable.

A Symbiotic Relationship Between Traders and Investors

This initiative promotes a mutually beneficial relationship between traders and investors. Skilled traders can explore additional income streams, as their commissions are directly linked to the profits investors earn through copied transactions. In parallel, investors have the flexibility to select traders based on their performance, creating an ecosystem where traders are motivated to enhance their trading strategies. Consequently, higher profits for investors translate into more substantial commissions for traders.

What CopyFX Can Offer Clients on MT5

CopyFX on MT5 offers a combination of cost-effectiveness with a minimal deposit requirement of 100 USD. It also provides a secure, flexible, and user-friendly investment management infrastructure. With just an MT5 hedge account, traders and investors can access one of the most celebrated trading terminals in the market. Traders can use one of the best terminals on the market with cutting-edge analytical tools and lowest ping VPS from MetaQuotes. All the essential tools for copying transactions and acquiring subscribers to MT5 accounts are readily accessible in the Members Area under the “Investments” section. Notably, fees are only charged to investors when trades result in profits.

 

About CopyFX

Established in 2012, CopyFX is RoboForex’s flagship copy-trading platform, ingeniously designed to bridge the gap between novice investors and experienced traders. This innovative system empowers investors to enhance their trading skills by seamlessly subscribing to and replicating the strategies of seasoned traders. Expert traders, in turn, have the opportunity to earn commissions through followers’ strategic adoption.

CopyFX is available across RoboForex’s MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, and R StocksTrader accounts. It offers an enhanced trading experience by extending its robust functionalities through seamless integration with the R StocksTrader and R MobileTrader applications, ensuring a genuinely versatile, multi-device trading journey.

 

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

 

Will BOE help Sterling break out of downtrend?

By ForexTime 

  • Bank of England unlikely to change benchmark rate today
  • “Hawkish hold” could keep Sterling supported, though still stuck in downtrend
  • GBPUSD bulls must first conquer 21-day SMA resistance
  • 1.2130 region offering support since late-September
  • GBPUSD likeliest to trade within 1.2025 – 1.2304 range over one week

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates at 5.25% today.

This is in tune with current market pricing, with only a 29% chance of another hike by February.

Further hikes may be needed if the bank gets more evidence of persistent inflation.

Other data since the last BOE meeting has been broadly soft with weak GDP and PMIs in September and October stuck in contractionary territory so signalling a gloomy growth outlook.

This implies the bar is relatively high now for another rate hike, especially due to the slightly surprising unchanged decision at the September meeting.

Updated economic projections and the press conference may allow policymakers to show their hand.

Higher inflation forecasts, with the 2% target being hit halfway through 2025, might imply rates need to stay higher for longer.

However, BOE Governor Bailey may stress the lagged effects of this tightening cycle, with higher mortgage rates still to hit many households.

Market rate expectations are noticeably lower after the summer’s repricing with the first rate cut fully priced in by September 2024.

How much caution there is towards the poor outlook compared to the potential re-emergence of upside risks to inflation will be key.

A “hawkish hold” should see GBP relatively well supported as it battles to break out of its long-term downtrend.

 

From a technical perspective …

A bear channel, with a series of lower highs and lower lows, has been in place since the mid-July top above 1.31.

For immediate consideration, GBPUSD bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) must first secure a daily close above its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

 

Further resistance northwards may arrive at:

  • 1.220: upper boundary of its bear channel
  • 1.22889: intraday high on October 24th
  • 1.2300: psychologically-important level, close to 50 Fibonacci level from GBPUSD’s June 2021 – September 2022 peak-to-trough action

 

Looking the other way, the 1.2130 region should offer strong support, as has largely been the case over the past five weeks.

Ultimate immediate-term support may arrive around the recent cycle low in early October which sits at 1.20372.

 

The support and resistance levels listed above fits nicely with the forecasted trading range, as per Bloomberg’s FX model, which cites a …

74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2025 – 1.2304 range over the next one-week period.

 

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Fed/Treasury announcements may trigger USDInd breakout

By ForexTime 

  • Fed/Treasury announcements today may spike FX volatility
  • USInd has climbed 3 months in a row
  • Bullish momentum stalling as traders await new catalyst for breakout
  • Dollar bulls will look to extend uptrend by 265 points
  • Dollar bears hoping for potential 120 point move south

 

The USDInd may see a volatility-triggering event today (Wednesday, November 1st).

Wild price swings for the USDInd would likely owe to two pivotal decisions out of the U.S:

  • US Treasury refunding announcement at 12:30 GMT
  • Fed rate decision @ 18:00 GMT

The market’s general expectation is for a pause in US interest rate hikes, owing partially to rising bond yields which most analysts see as tantamount to a rate hike.

READ MORE: Trade of the Week – Can SPX500_m recover from technical correction?

 

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are hovering just below the psychological 5% level, though remains at their highest levels since 2007. And we know that the US dollar tends to have a positive correlation with Treasury yields (both are likelier to move in the same direction).

So, we look to the USDInd, which tracks how the US dollar performs against a basket of its G10 peers including EUR, GBP, JPY and others.

 

USDInd uptrend stalls, breakout imminent?

Note that the USDInd has closed stronger/bullish for the last 3 months.

However, October also saw the shortest trading range (the difference between the highest price and the lowest price within that month):

  • August: 283 points
  • September: 333 points
  • October: 189 points

Such “thinning” monthly trading ranges suggest that the bullish momentum for USDInd is waning, though still intact.

On the weekly and daily time frames, bullish flags are seen, lasting for 5 weeks and 27 days respectively.

Flag patterns are continuation patterns expected to break out in the direction of the trend (flagpole) preceding the range/sideways movement (flag).

Hence, the “flags” on both the weekly and daily timeframes imply that traders are waiting for a new catalyst that would determine the next big move for USDInd.

 

How might USDInd react?

If the announcement out of either the Treasury or the Fed today results in US yields resuming its uptrend, then US dollar bulls may go charging on.

From a technical perspective, more gains may arrive if we see a strong breakout above the flag’s resistance around 106.87, the flag’s resistance which is being tested currently).

A stronger bullish signal may be derived especially if USDInd posts highs above 107.37, its highest price year-to-date.

 

With the flagpole used as an estimate for a flag’s measured move objective …

Dollar bulls will be looking for moves to the upside around 265  points. 

However, dollar-longs (those hoping that prices will move higher) may experience confrontation at key resistance levels ahead, notably:

  • 107.89: intraday high on November 21, 2022, and a key battleground for bears and bulls in the past
  •  110.21: the 261.8 Fibonacci level when drawn from September 30th’s intraday low to the  October 3rd intraday high.

 

USDInd bears (those hoping prices will move lower) on the other hand will be looking for dovish comments and action from the US Federal Reserve, or a less-than-expected amount of securities to be auctioned by the Treasury (currently expected to total US $114 billion).

This may result in the US index ultimately declining back towards:

  • 106.124: the 161.8 Fibonacci level
  • 105.602: the flags support zone

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Currency Speculators drop their British Pound bets for 9th week to 30-week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (3,029 contracts) with the EuroFX (2,843 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,983 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,689 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (504 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-7,427 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,952 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,444 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,342 contracts), Bitcoin (-781 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-100 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop their British Pound bets for 9th week to 30-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the sliding trend in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Sterling positions fell this week by over -7,400 contracts and have now declined for nine consecutive weeks. The Sterling speculative level has dropped by a total of -77,743 contracts over these past nine weeks to the lowest level of the past 30-weeks, dating back to March 28th.

Relatively recently, the bullish bets for the Sterling (+63,729 contracts on July 18th) had risen to the highest level since July 31st of 2007, a span of almost exactly sixteen years. This marked the highest level for this year’s bullish bets but the speculator positions did a u-turn and have now fallen in twelve out of the fourteen weeks since then.

Hurting the pound’s outlook has been a weak economic landscape and the expectation that the Bank of England could be done with raising interest rates. The BOE, this year, has boosted the bank’s interest rate to the highest level since 2008 at 5.25 percent to fight high inflation (which has eased to 6.7 percent).

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been in a downtrend since hitting a high over the 1.3000 level in the middle of July. Since that 2023 summer ascension, the Sterling has been dropping sharply, falling through the 1.2500 exchange rate and is currently testing support in the 1.2050-1.2100 range.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-24-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index42,6704219,67158-20,5314386016
EUR702,6683985,25357-107,9964922,74315
GBP233,25957-18,6364327,33761-8,70141
JPY260,90982-99,62911104,80987-5,18043
CHF59,26692-15,0951527,13689-12,04118
CAD184,74749-48,639953,60093-4,96112
AUD194,66654-83,0811398,85392-15,77214
NZD57,24374-12,8512216,05181-3,20012
MXN194,5303537,86162-40,188372,32726
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL51,454415,18542-6,903561,71850
Bitcoin19,678100-45460-438089233

 


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the Bitcoin (60 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The US Dollar Index (58 percent), EuroFX (57 percent) and the British Pound (43 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent), the Japanese Yen (11 percent), the Australian Dollar (13 percent) and the Swiss Franc (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.9 percent)
EuroFX (56.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (55.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (42.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (9.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (12.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (42.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (40.2 percent)
Bitcoin (59.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (71.3 percent)

 

US Dollar Index & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (23 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (-1 percent), the Australian Dollar (-3 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The British Pound (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Bitcoin (-40 percent), Mexican Peso (-18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.4 percent)
EuroFX (-11.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-22.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-45.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-40.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-0.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-32.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-22.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-3.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (2.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-17.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-40.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-25.8 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.921.79.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.869.87.9
– Net Position:19,671-20,531860
– Gross Longs:28,1309,2554,240
– Gross Shorts:8,45929,7863,380
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.743.215.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.7-20.3-9.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 85,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.756.411.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.571.88.2
– Net Position:85,253-107,99622,743
– Gross Longs:215,569396,43580,233
– Gross Shorts:130,316504,43157,490
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.648.815.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.915.7-22.6

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.856.911.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.845.215.1
– Net Position:-18,63627,337-8,701
– Gross Longs:67,119132,74426,540
– Gross Shorts:85,755105,40735,241
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.861.041.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.043.9-26.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -99,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,029 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.971.414.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.131.316.3
– Net Position:-99,629104,809-5,180
– Gross Longs:30,964186,38137,435
– Gross Shorts:130,59381,57242,615
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.986.842.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.5-0.95.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.567.016.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.021.236.7
– Net Position:-15,09527,136-12,041
– Gross Longs:9,80739,7249,692
– Gross Shorts:24,90212,58821,733
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.288.717.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.826.8-32.5

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.168.817.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.439.819.9
– Net Position:-48,63953,600-4,961
– Gross Longs:22,326127,10131,815
– Gross Shorts:70,96573,50136,776
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.292.611.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.32.95.4

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -83,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.473.39.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.122.617.7
– Net Position:-83,08198,853-15,772
– Gross Longs:28,018142,75318,606
– Gross Shorts:111,09943,90034,378
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.3 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.791.614.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.22.9-0.8

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.569.45.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.941.310.7
– Net Position:-12,85116,051-3,200
– Gross Longs:13,44839,7182,942
– Gross Shorts:26,29923,6676,142
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.981.311.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.6-2.7-6.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.068.43.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.589.11.8
– Net Position:37,861-40,1882,327
– Gross Longs:54,446133,1055,771
– Gross Shorts:16,585173,2933,444
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.237.426.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.718.6-14.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.352.46.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.265.83.5
– Net Position:5,185-6,9031,718
– Gross Longs:20,20326,9733,505
– Gross Shorts:15,01833,8761,787
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.456.250.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.210.2-2.5

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.33.38.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.65.53.7
– Net Position:-454-438892
– Gross Longs:14,8146411,617
– Gross Shorts:15,2681,079725
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.657.333.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.457.313.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Speculator Extremes: VIX, Cocoa, DowJones & 2-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is currently at a 95.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -21,594 net contracts this week with a change of 1,351 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was -10.8 this week. The speculator position registered 77,020 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 5,528 contracts in speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 87.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -2.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 283,813 net contracts this week with a change of 62,572 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 85.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -5,353 net contracts this week with a change of 55 contracts in the speculator bets.


Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level sits at a 80.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.7 this week.

The speculator position was 31,988 net contracts this week with a change of -3,195 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -51.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -35,960 net contracts this week with a change of -749 contracts in the speculator bets.


2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.2 this week. The speculator position was -1,424,312 net contracts this week with a change of -69,613 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 0.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -249,869 net contracts this week with a change of -8,704 contracts in the speculator bets.


Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.5 this week. The speculator position was -11,240 net contracts this week with a change of 255 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Soybeans

Finally, the Soybeans speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 5.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.8 this week. The speculator position was 36,454 net contracts this week with a change of 9,349 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Murrey Math Lines 26.10.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on H4, revealing the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is approaching the resistance line. In this case, a downward breakout of the 3/8 (0.8977) level is expected, followed by a decline to the support at 1/8 (0.8850). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above 4/8 (0.9033), which could lead to a trend reversal and growth to the resistance at 5/8 (0.9094).

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline could be a breakout of the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold quotes and the RSI are nearing their overbought areas on H4. In this situation, a test of 8/8 (2000.00) is expected, followed by a rebound from it and a decline to the support at 6/8 (1937.50). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above 8/8 (2000.00). In this case, the price might reach the resistance at +1/8 (2031.25).

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakout of the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a price decline.

XAUUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Murrey Math Lines 24.10.2023 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on H4, revealing the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is nearing the resistance line. In this situation, a test of 5/8 (0.6378) is expected, followed by a rebound from this level and a decline to the support at 2/8 (0.6286). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above the 5/8 (0.6378) level. In this case, the pair could reach the resistance at 6/8 (0.6408).

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, after a rebound from 5/8 (0.6378), a further price decline could be additionally supported by a breakout of the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD quotes are in the oversold area on H4. The RSI has broken the resistance line. In this situation, the quotes could rise above the 0/8 (0.5859) level, subsequently reaching the resistance level of 2/8 (0.5920). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of -1/8 (0.5828). In this case, the pair might drop to the support at -2/8 (0.5798).

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel is broken. This increases the probability of a further price rise.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Technical Analysis & Forecast 13.10.2023

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has completed a wave of growth to 1.0638. The market has formed a consolidation range under this level and, escaping it downwards, continues developing the declining wave to 1.0470. After the price hits this level, a link of growth to 1.0550 is not excluded (with a test from below), followed by a decline to 1.0424.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has completed a wave of growth to 1.2337. By now, the market has formed a consolidation range under this level. Breaking the range downwards, the market completed a declining wave to 1.2171. A link of correction to 1.2222 is not excluded (with a test from below), followed by a decline to 1.2121. This is a local target.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed a wave of growth to 149.81. A link of decline to 149.00 is expected (with a test from above). Next, a link of growth to 150.75 might follow.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has completed a wave of decline to 0.8989. By now, the market has formed a consolidation range above this level and is forming a growing impulse to 0.9122, escaping the range upwards. This is the first target.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed a rising link to 0.6444. Practically, the market demonstrates the wave of growth as complete. By now, a consolidation range has formed under 0.6444 and, escaping it downwards, the market develops an impulse of decline to 0.6262. This is a local target.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent continues forming a consolidation range around 86.00. A link of decline to 84.00 is not excluded, followed by a rising link to 89.00. This is the first target.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed a wave of growth to 1884.80. Today the market has performed a declining impulse to 1867.00 and a rising link to 1876.55. Practically, a consolidation range has formed which the price might later break downwards to 1847.77. This is the first target.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The stock index is forming a declining impulse to 4310.0. Next, the quotes might rise to 4355.0 (with a test from below). Next, a new wave of decline to 4200.0 might begin. This is a local target.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Week Ahead: Looming “death cross” teases GBPUSD bears

By ForexTime 

  • GBPUSD set to be driven by technical and fundamental forces
  • Keep eye on UK CPI report, US data dump and Fed speeches
  • Looming “death cross” formation points to further declines
  • GBPUSD remains bearish despite recent bounce
  • Key levels of interest found at 1.2310 and 1.2050

The combination of geopolitical risk and Fed rate expectations injected markets with explosive levels of volatility this week. We could see more action later today due to earnings announcements by Wall Street banks.

And even before things settle down, volatility is likely to intensify in the week ahead thanks to top-tier economic reports and speeches from policymakers among other key risk events:

Monday, October 16

  • CNH: China medium-term lending facility rate
  • JPY: Japan industrial production
  • GBP: BOE chief economist Huw Pill speech
  • USD: US Empire Manufacturing index, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech

Tuesday, October 17

  • CAD: Canada housing starts, CPI
  • EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations
  • GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
  • USD: US retail sales, industrial production, New York Fed President John Williams, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech
  • SPX500_m: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America earnings

Wednesday, October 18

  • CNH: China GDP, retail sales, industrial production
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI
  • GBP: UK September CPI
  • USD: US housing starts, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, New York Fed President John Williams speech
  • NQ100_m: Netflix, Tesla earnings

Thursday, October 19

  • CNH: China property prices
  • AUD: Australia unemployment
  • JPY: Japan trade
  • USD: US initial jobless claims, existing home sales,
  • USD: Fed speak – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlantia Fed President Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Friday, October 20

  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • NZD: New Zealand trade
  • JPY: Japan CPI
  • USD: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech

Our focus falls on the GBPUSD which is forming a “death cross” pattern on the daily timeframe.

A death cross happens when an asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) moves below its 200-day SMA. This technical pattern is widely viewed as a signal that prices may continue to fall further in the medium to longer term.

After initially kicking off the week on a positive note amid a weaker dollar, the GBPUSD tumbled aggressively on Thursday thanks to the stronger-than-expected US inflation figures. With the dollar drawing strength from renewed Fed hike bets, the GBPUSD could resume its downtrend.

Here are 3 reasons why GBPUSD could be gearing up for a major move:

  1. UK September Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The latest UK inflation data published on Wednesday, 18th October is likely to influence expectations around the BoE’s next move. Before this key report, the UK will release its latest batch of labour market data on Tuesday, October 17th. Any further signs of the UK jobs market’s cooling may support the argument around the BoE keeping rates on hold for the rest of 2023.

Markets are forecasting:

  • CPI year-on-year (September 2023 vs. September 2022) to cool 6.5% from 6.7% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to cool 6.5% from 6.7% seen in August.
  • CPI month-on-month (September 2023 vs August 2023) to rise 0.5% from 0.3% in the prior month.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 45% probability of a 25 basis point BoE hike by the end of 2023.

  • Signs of still stubborn inflation may boost bets around the BoE hiking rates one more time before the end of 2023, pushing the GBPUSD towards 1.2310.
  • Should September’s CPI report show signs of cooling inflationary pressures, this could fuel hopes around the BoE keeping rates on hold – dragging the GBPUSD lower as a result.
  1. US data dump + Fed speeches

Dollar volatility could be the name of the game next week due to key US economic data and speeches by a host of Fed officials. After receiving a boost from stronger-than-expected US inflation data, dollar bulls could switch into higher gear if the incoming economic releases support the case for another Fed hike in 2023.

The US Empire manufacturing will be in focus on Monday, with key US retail sales and industrial production figures published on Tuesday and US initial jobless claims on Thursday. These reports will be complemented by speeches from various Fed officials including Fed chair Jerome Powell.

  • If US economic data misses expectations and Fed officials reiterate their dovish remarks, this could hit the dollar as bets rise over the Fed pausing hikes for the rest of 2023.
  • A strong set of economic releases may fuel speculation around the Fed raising rates one more time this year. This may boost the dollar, pulling the GBPUSD lower as a result.
  1. Bearish technical force: Death cross pending

The GBPUSD remains under pressure on the daily charts with the looming “death cross” formation signalling a steeper decline down the road. Although the currency pair experienced a technical bounce from seven-month lows, prices are still trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades to the downside.

  • Sustained weakness below 1.2310 may keep bears control with the downside momentum opening a path towards 1.2050. A breakdown below this point could trigger a selloff towards 1.1920.
  • Should prices push back above 1.2310, could see prices test 1.2430 – where the 200-day SMA resides.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: G10 currencies

By ForexTime 

  • Dollar steady ahead of FOMC minutes
  • EURUSD approaches key resistance
  • GBPUSD bulls back in town?
  • USDJPY trapped within wide range
  • USDCAD set to challenge 50-day SMA?

A tense atmosphere gripped financial markets on Wednesday amid mounting geopolitical tensions and incoming US economic data.

Although global equities rose in the previous session on dovish remarks from Fed officials, the overall uncertainty and growing caution may limit upside gains. In the commodity space, oil prices slipped after an early-week surge while gold widened the gap – rising over 0.7% as Treasury yields retreated.

Looking at currencies, the dollar remains relatively stable despite dovish Fed remarks – gaining against most G10 currencies ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes this evening.

The USD Index is wobbling above 105.80 as of writing but could see some more action in the second half of the week, especially with the U.S. inflation data scheduled for release on Thursday.

Given the chaotic cocktail of themes influencing markets, this may present some opportunities across the FX space. Here are a couple of trading setups we are keeping an eye on:

EURUSD approaches key resistance

Euro bulls could make a comeback after prices secured a daily close above the 1.0600 level. Although prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA, the bearish trend may be threatened if a solid breakout above 1.0650 is achieved. This may open a path higher toward the 50-day SMA at 1.0750 and 1.0820 – where the 200-day SMA resides. Should prices keep below 1.0600, this could trigger a decline back towards 1.0500.

GBPUSD bulls back in town?

The GBPUSD may be in the process of a trend reversal after closing above the 1.2275 level. Bulls seem to be gaining momentum on the daily timeframe observed by the six consecutive positive daily candlesticks. Should prices push beyond the 1.2275 level, this could open the doors towards 1.2340 and 1.2540, respectively. A decline back below 1.2275 could see prices slip towards 1.2160.

USDJPY trapped within range

After the aggressive reaction to the 150.00 level earlier this month, the USDJPY remains trapped within a wide range with support at 147.50 and resistance at 150.00. The currency pair remains pulled and tugged by various fundamental forces while the technicals suggest that a breakout could be on the horizon. Should prices slip below 148.40, this may trigger a selloff towards 147.50 and 146.70 – where the 50-day SMA resides. Alternatively, a strong break above 149.30 could see prices re-challenge 150.00.

USDCAD set to challenge 50-day SMA?

The USDCAD has found some support at 1.3570 after falling for four consecutive days. Bears seem to be back in the picture and could switch into a higher gear if a solid breakdown below 1.3570 is achieved. This could result in a decline towards the 50-day SMA at 1.3540 and 1.3450 – a level just below the 200-day SMA can be found. If bulls can push prices back above 1.3640, the first checkpoint can be found at 1.3690 before a possible move back towards 1.3750.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com