Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 4

Yen Under Sustained Pressure, Igniting Intervention Fears

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is trading firmly around 156.56 on Monday, keeping the Japanese yen in a deeply weak position. Markets remain on high alert as they assess a chorus of verbal interventions from Japanese officials aimed at stemming the decline of the national currency.

The warnings intensified on Sunday when Takuji Aida, an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, stated that Tokyo is prepared to intervene directly in the currency market if the yen’s weakness begins to inflict significant harm on the economy.

This follows similar expressions of concern from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama last week. Their comments have significantly heightened expectations of potential market intervention, with many analysts identifying the 160.00 level as a critical line in the sand, recalling that this zone prompted official action during previous episodes of yen weakness.

The yen’s sell-off, which drove it to a ten-month low last week, was initially triggered by the new cabinet’s substantial stimulus package. The plan raised alarms over Japan’s fiscal health, while the administration’s continued insistence on ultra-loose monetary policy has provided a fundamental backdrop for further currency depreciation.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed its first downward impulse to 156.19 and is now forming a consolidation range around 156.55. An upward breakout from this range is expected to trigger a corrective rally towards 157.15. Following this correction, we anticipate the resumption of the bearish move, initiating a new downward impulse with an initial target at 154.00. A break below this level would open the path for a deeper correction towards 153.30. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero but is pointing decisively downward, suggesting that while the pair is correcting from overbought conditions, the underlying momentum is shifting bearish.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed a downward wave to 156.20. We are now observing a corrective phase for this move, with an initial target set at 157.13. Upon completion of this upward correction, we expect the next leg of the downtrend to develop, targeting 154.44. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this near-term view. Its signal line is above 50 and rising towards 80, indicating that short-term buying pressure is driving the correction before the larger bearish trend reasserts itself.

Conclusion

The yen remains caught between fundamental pressures from domestic policy and escalating verbal intervention from authorities. Technically, the USD/JPY pair is completing a corrective bounce within a newly established short-term downtrend. While a rise towards 157.15 is likely in the near term, this should be viewed as a corrective move within a broader bearish structure that targets a decline towards 154.00 and potentially 153.30. All eyes remain on the 160.00 level, widely viewed as the threshold for potential official intervention.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

GBP/USD Weakens Rapidly Amid Dovish Data and External Pressures

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair fell sharply to 1.3048 on Thursday, pressured by a combination of soft domestic inflation data and a broadly stronger US dollar.

The pound’s decline was triggered by the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed inflation slowed to 3.6% year-on-year in October, matching forecasts. This bolstered market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could initiate interest rate cuts as early as December. The data fits a broader narrative of weakening domestic demand: the labour market is cooling, GDP growth is undershooting the central bank’s projections, and core inflation is tracking slightly below the BoE’s anticipated path. In light of this, institutions, including Deutsche Bank, suggest the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will gain the confidence needed to lower the Bank Rate from its current 4.00% level.

Additional headwinds for sterling stemmed from a resurgent US dollar, which found support ahead of key US macroeconomic data and the highly anticipated earnings report from the AI-chip giant, Nvidia.

Globally, investor attention is also captivated by the Japanese yen, which slumped to a 10-month low after the Ministry of Finance issued a statement expressing a “high degree of caution” over the currency’s movements. This phrase stopped short of threatening direct intervention.

Overall, market uncertainty is elevated. US statistical agencies are only just beginning to release the backlog of data delayed by the recent government shutdown, leaving traders to piece together the true state of the world’s largest economy.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has completed a downward wave to 1.3037. We now anticipate a technical correction towards at least 1.3080. Following this pullback, the primary downtrend is expected to resume, driving the pair towards 1.2990, with a longer-term prospect of extending losses to 1.2915. This bearish scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is located below zero and pointing decisively downward, indicating that selling momentum remains firmly intact.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair broke downwards from a consolidation range around 1.3090, confirming the continuation of the bearish impulse. The immediate target for this leg is 1.3030. A corrective bounce to retest the 1.3090 level from below is likely before the next wave of selling takes the pair down to 1.2990 and potentially towards 1.2950. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view. Its signal line is above 50, indicating that a short-lived corrective bounce is underway before the dominant downtrend reasserts itself.

Conclusion

The GBP/USD is facing a perfect storm of domestic dovish shifts and external dollar strength. The softer inflation print has significantly increased the odds of a December BoE rate cut, eroding sterling’s yield appeal. Technically, the path of least resistance remains firmly to the downside. While a short-term correction towards 1.3080 is likely, this should be viewed as a potential selling opportunity within the broader bearish trend, which has clear targets at 1.2990 and 1.2915.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Declines as Market Awaits Key US Employment Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair extended its losses for a third consecutive session, falling to 1.1591 on Tuesday. The downward pressure persists as investors await a backlog of delayed US economic data, expected to provide crucial signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. The market’s primary focus is the delayed September employment report, which traders will scrutinise for signs of a softening labour market.

The rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials remains mixed, contributing to the market’s indecision. Several officials have recently expressed scepticism about the need for a December rate cut, citing persistent inflationary pressures. However, this was counterbalanced by Governor Chris Waller, who confirmed his support for a cut, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, who advocated for a gradual approach due to rising labour market risks.

This conflicting guidance has led to a repricing of rate expectations. Futures markets now imply only a 43% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, a significant decline from the odds priced at the start of the month. The US dollar has found broad support, strengthening against commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has breached its growth wave channel at 1.1605, opening the path for a downward move. We anticipate an initial decline to 1.1564, followed by a technical pullback to retest the 1.1605 level from below. This retest is likely to present a fresh selling opportunity before the downtrend resumes towards the primary target of 1.1560. The MACD indicator confirms this bearish outlook. Its signal line, while above zero, is pointing decisively downward, indicating that selling momentum is overpowering any residual strength.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has broken downwards from a consolidation range around 1.1600, confirming the second leg of a bearish impulse. The immediate target for this move is 1.1560. Upon reaching this level, a corrective bounce back towards 1.1600 is a distinct possibility. The Stochastic oscillator supports this corrective view. Its signal line is rising from the 20 level towards the 50 level, suggesting that short-term downward pressure may be exhausted, paving the way for a temporary rebound.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under pressure amid a strengthening US dollar and uncertain Fed policy. While conflicting comments from officials have created volatility, the overall technical structure is bearish. The breach below 1.1605 suggests further losses are likely, with an initial target at 1.1560. Any near-term rebounds towards the 1.1600/05 resistance zone are expected to be temporary, offering potential opportunities to re-enter the prevailing downtrend.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD/JPY Extends Gains as Japanese Government Advocates for Dovish Policy

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair advanced to 154.72 on Monday, trading near its highest levels since February, despite the release of Japanese economic data that surpassed forecasts.

Japan’s GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, a reversal from the 0.6% growth recorded in Q2. However, this outcome was better than the 0.6% decline anticipated by economists.

The yen’s weakness persists primarily due to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s public call for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its ultra-low interest rate policy. The government believes this accommodative stance is essential to underpin economic growth and support a gradual rise in inflation.

This puts the government at odds with the central bank. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a more balanced tone, noting that consumption remains stable amid rising household incomes and a tight labour market. He observed that core inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, a development that would justify an early policy tightening.

This creates a visible and rare public imbalance between the dovish government’s fiscal priorities and the central bank’s potential inclination towards monetary normalisation.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a growth wave to 155.00 and a subsequent correction to 153.63. The pair is now forming a tight consolidation range around this support level. An upward breakout from this range is expected to initiate the next leg of the rally, targeting 155.15 as an initial objective. This bullish scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating sustained positive momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair reached a local high at 155.00 and completed a corrective structure to 153.63. A fresh growth impulse to 154.66 has since been completed, forming a new compact consolidation range. An upward breakout from this range is anticipated, opening the path for a move towards a minimum target of 155.75. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook. Its signal line is above 50 and rising sharply towards 80, reflecting strong short-term bullish momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to climb, driven by a fundamental divergence between a dovish Japanese government and the BoJ, which is cautiously laying the groundwork for a future rate hike. Technically, the structure remains firmly bullish. The completion of the recent correction suggests the pair is poised for further gains, with immediate targets at 155.15 and 155.75.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

GBP/USD Mired at Seven-Month Lows Amid Political and Fiscal Concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair declined to 1.3149 on Friday, hovering near a seven-month low. The sell-off was triggered by the government’s abrupt abandonment of plans to raise income tax rates ahead of the Autumn Statement on 26 November.

According to the Financial Times, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have scrapped the previously debated increases to basic and higher tax rates. Instead, they will seek more indirect measures to address a budget deficit estimated at £30 billion.

This policy reversal has sparked significant market anxiety over the new cabinet’s fiscal discipline and long-term strategy, leading to a broad sell-off in sterling-denominated assets and exerting upward pressure on government bond yields.

Moreover, recent macroeconomic data have been weak, further compounding the political unease. Third-quarter economic growth was muted, with monthly GDP contracting in September. This follows earlier reports showing unemployment rising to a four-year high and wage growth slowing to its weakest pace since early 2022. Consequently, market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in December have intensified.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has completed a corrective wave at 1.3215. A decline towards 1.3062 is anticipated, likely to be followed by a minor rebound to 1.3131. This level is expected to form resistance within a new consolidation range. A subsequent downward breakout from this range would signal a resumption of the primary downtrend, opening the path towards 1.2985, with a further potential decline to at least 1.2915. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line, while above zero, has diverged bearishly from its histogram, suggesting the recent corrective bounce has ended and a new downward impulse is forming.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.3153. We expect an initial decline to 1.3090, followed by a technical retracement to retest the 1.3153 level from below. This retest is likely to present a selling opportunity before the downtrend extends towards 1.3013. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view. Its signal line is deep in oversold territory at the 20 level, which, rather than suggesting a rebound, typically indicates sustained downward momentum in a strong trend.

Conclusion

The pound remains under heavy pressure, caught between political missteps that undermine fiscal credibility and a deteriorating economic backdrop that points to monetary easing. Technically, the pair maintains a clear bearish structure. Any near-term stability is likely to prove temporary, with the path of least resistance pointing towards a test of support at 1.2985 and potentially 1.2915.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Holds Steady as US Government Shutdown Ends

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is trading flat on Thursday, hovering around 1.1587, following the House of Representatives’ approval of a short-term budget bill that ends the longest US government shutdown in history.

The bill now awaits President Donald Trump’s signature – a formality that will allow shuttered government agencies to resume operations within days.

While the resolution clears the way for the publication of a backlog of delayed macroeconomic data, the White House has cautioned that key October reports on employment and inflation may still be withheld from the public.

Market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have moderated but persist. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut has eased to 60%, down from 67% the day before.

This cautious sentiment was fuelled earlier in the week by ADP data, which showed that the US private sector shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week throughout October, amplifying concerns over a cooling labour market.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed a corrective wave to 1.1605 and has formed a tight consolidation range below this resistance level. We anticipate a downward breakout from this range, triggering a decline towards an initial target of 1.1505. A breach of this level would open the path for a further extension of the downtrend to 1.1405. This bearish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero but has diverged from its histogram and is pointing decisively downward, suggesting the recent upward correction has run its course and bearish momentum is reasserting itself.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed a downward impulse to 1.1563, followed by a corrective bounce to 1.1597. These two levels define the upper and lower boundaries of a new consolidation range. A downward breakout is expected, leading to a resumption of the sell-off towards initial targets at 1.1538 and 1.1530. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view. Its signal line has turned down from below the 80 level and is falling steadily towards 20, indicating that short-term downward momentum is building.

Conclusion

While the end of the US government shutdown removes a key market overhang, the EUR/USD pair remains capped by underlying concerns about the US economy and a still-dovish Fed outlook. Technically, the structure points to a bearish resolution. The completion of the correction near 1.1605 suggests the pair is poised for a fresh leg lower, with key downside targets at 1.1505 and 1.1405.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Pound Succumbs to Pressure from Weak Labour Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair snapped a four-day winning streak, declining for a second day to trade around 1.3135. The sell-off was triggered by UK labour market data revealing a rise in unemployment and a deceleration in annual wage growth. These figures have bolstered market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could initiate interest rate cuts as early as December.

The shifting sentiment was reflected in government bonds, with the two-year gilt yield falling 6 basis points to 3.74%, its lowest level since August 2024.

Appetite for risk was mixed across asset classes. European stock indices managed gains, while S&P 500 futures edged down approximately 0.2%.

In currency markets, traders are increasingly pricing in a more dovish path for BoE policy. Current pricing implies roughly 21 basis points of cuts by December, with a total of up to 65 basis points of easing projected by the end of 2026. Economists suggest that, given the softening labour market and anticipated fiscal tightening, the BoE’s base rate could fall to 3.00% from the current 4.00%.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD broke upwards from a consolidation range around 1.3100, completing a corrective wave to 1.3185. We now anticipate a decline back towards the 1.3100 support level. A brief rebound to 1.3150 may follow, establishing a new consolidation range. A subsequent downward breakout from this range would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend, opening the path towards 1.3000, with a further potential decline to at least 1.2915. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero but has diverged from its histogram, suggesting the initial upward correction is exhausted and a new decline is beginning.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed an upward correction to 1.3188 after breaking from a range at 1.3100. A new downward wave is now developing, initially targeting 1.3108. Following this, a technical retracement to test 1.3150 from below is expected. Once this correction is complete, the downtrend is projected to extend towards 1.3050. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line is at the 20 level, indicating oversold conditions but also supporting the view that downward momentum is currently dominant.

Conclusion

The pound is weakening as soft labour market data fuels expectations of imminent BoE monetary easing. Technically, the pair appears to have completed a corrective bounce and is now poised to resume its primary downtrend. The immediate focus is on the 1.3100 support; a sustained break below this level would confirm a move towards 1.3000 and potentially lower.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD/JPY Climbs to Fresh Nine-Month High

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair advanced to 154.36 on Tuesday, edging closer to a new ten-month peak. The rally was driven by growing market optimism that the protracted US government shutdown may soon conclude, dampening demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen.

In Japan, Economic Recovery Minister Minoru Kiuchi highlighted the domestic challenges posed by the currency’s weakness, warning that a soft yen risks amplifying inflationary pressures by increasing the cost of imports. He called for vigilant monitoring of the situation.

Concurrently, a draft of the government’s new economic stimulus plan—scheduled for approval on 21st November—reveals that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet will urge the Bank of Japan to prioritise economic growth alongside price stability. The programme is also set to feature tax breaks and investment incentives targeting 17 key industries.

This comes as the Bank of Japan’s October report reaffirmed its close watch on wage growth to determine the timing of its next potential rate hike. In a positive economic sign, the country registered a record current account surplus of ¥4.5 trillion in September, bolstered by robust export growth.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 153.80. We anticipate an upward expansion of this range towards 154.80. Following this, a pullback to retest the 153.80 level from above is expected. This would likely set the stage for the next leg of the uptrend, targeting 155.70. This bullish scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is firmly above zero and pointing upwards, indicating sustained positive momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed an initial growth impulse to 154.48. A near-term correction towards 153.65 is now expected. Once this corrective phase concludes, we anticipate the resumption of the broader upward trend, with the next primary target at 155.70. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view. Its signal line is below 50 and trending downwards towards 20, suggesting that short-term downward pressure (the expected correction) is building before the next potential upward wave.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues its ascent, propelled by renewed risk appetite and domestic Japanese policy that implicitly favours a weaker yen. While minor corrective dips are anticipated in the short term, the overall technical and fundamental backdrop remains bullish. The path of least resistance points towards a test of 155.70, provided the pair maintains its footing above key support near 153.80.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD/JPY Declines as Safe-Haven Demand Bolsters the Yen

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair retreated to 153.10 on Friday, with the yen retaining a portion of its recent gains amid a flight to safety. A sharp uptick in stock market volatility, driven by concerns over a potential overvaluation of artificial intelligence stocks, prompted investors to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets, thereby supporting the Japanese currency.

The pair faced additional pressure from a broadly weaker US dollar. Signs of a cooling US labour market have reinforced market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Domestic data from Japan presented a mixed picture. Consumer spending in September rose by a modest 1.8%, following a 2.3% increase in August and falling short of the 2.5% forecast. While nominal wage growth accelerated to 1.9%, real household incomes continued their decline, falling 1.4% year-on-year. This marks the ninth consecutive month of decline in real incomes, highlighting the persistent squeeze on purchasing power.

In light of this, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank’s wage growth forecast for 2026 will be a critical determinant for resuming rate hikes. For now, the BoJ maintains its accommodative stance, leaving monetary policy unchanged.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around 153.33. We anticipate a near-term expansion of this range to the downside, targeting 152.20. Following this, the primary scenario involves an upward breakout, initiating a new bullish wave towards 155.70. An alternative downward breakout would signal a deeper correction towards 149.90 before any sustained recovery can begin. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line below zero and pointing downward, confirming the current corrective momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is completing a corrective rise to test 153.50 from below. A tight consolidation range is forming around this level. We expect this range to break downwards initially, with a first target at 152.52. A rebound to 153.50 may follow. The broader trajectory hinges on the subsequent breakout. An upward breakout opens the path to 155.70, while a downward breakout would likely extend the correction towards 149.90. The Stochastic oscillator on the H1 offers a conflicting short-term signal. Its signal line is above 50 and rising towards 80, suggesting the potential for limited near-term upside before the next directional move.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is caught between a weaker US dollar and mixed domestic signals from Japan. The immediate driver is risk sentiment, which has provided the yen with temporary support. Technically, the pair is in a consolidation phase, with a near-term bias for a dip towards 152.20. The medium-term outlook, however, remains tentatively bullish, targeting 155.70, contingent on a successful upside breakout from the current range.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

GBP/USD Hovers Near Lows as Bank of England Decision Looms

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair is attempting to find support around 1.3062 on Thursday, with investors cautiously positioning themselves ahead of today’s pivotal Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting. The British currency remains under pressure, trading near a seven-month low against the US dollar and at its weakest level in over two years against the euro.

Market pricing currently implies roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the BoE. This uncertainty creates significant asymmetric risk, meaning the pound is poised for a sharp move in either direction once the decision and accompanying statement are released.

The pound’s weakness was compounded by the recent release of softer-than-expected UK inflation data, which bolstered expectations for an imminent shift towards policy easing. A simultaneous global sell-off in equity markets, particularly in the tech sector, has further dampened sentiment by reducing appetite for risk-sensitive assets such as sterling.

Adding to the headwinds, investor focus is shifting to the UK budget, due for approval later this month. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has signalled the potential for tax rises, a measure that could stifle economic growth and potentially prompt the BoE to adopt a more dovish stance – another factor weighing on the currency.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD broke downwards from a consolidation range around 1.3140, completing a bearish wave to 1.3010. We now anticipate a technical correction towards 1.3090. Following this pullback, the primary downtrend is expected to resume, with the next key targets at 1.2910 and, ultimately, 1.2811. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook. While its signal line is at deeply oversold levels and has diverged from its histogram, suggesting the potential for a short-term corrective rise, the overall structure remains negative.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair similarly broke down from a range around 1.3157, reaching the 1.3010 target. A corrective retracement to test 1.3100 from below is now expected. Once this correction is complete, the downtrend is likely to extend towards at least 1.2950. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view. Its signal line is in overbought territory above 80 and appears poised to turn down towards 20, indicating that any near-term strength is likely corrective before selling pressure reasserts itself.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is stabilising at multi-month lows ahead of a high-stakes BoE meeting. The combination of dovish inflation data, a risk-off market mood, and looming fiscal uncertainty has created a profoundly negative backdrop for sterling. Technically, the path of least resistance remains downward. While a short-covering bounce back towards 1.3100 is possible post-decision, the broader trend suggests further losses, with key targets at 1.2910 and 1.2811.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.