Forex and Currency News

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GBP/USD Under Pressure Amid Growing Domestic Concerns

GBP/USD retreated slightly on Tuesday after a positive Monday, moving down to 1.3486. The market continues to assess the economic data released late last week. The US dollar has so far drawn support from lingering uncertainty in the Middle East, which has encouraged investor caution and supported demand for safe-haven assets.

April data showed UK retail sales fell 1.3% month-on-month, the sharpest decline in nearly a year and noticeably worse than market forecasts. Consumers are cutting back on spending amid high fuel prices, rising energy bills, and concerns around the Middle East conflict.

Earlier labour market data also signalled a weakening outlook. Unemployment continues to rise, while real wage growth remains weak amid accelerating inflation.

Additional pressure on British assets comes from deteriorating public finances. The UK budget deficit in April was the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, with borrowing rising to £24.3 billion, the second-highest April figure on record.

Despite this, the pound has partially recovered from the political pressures of recent weeks. The market continues to monitor the situation surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the Labour Party’s weak results in local elections.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair has reached the 1.3500 level and is trading within a broad consolidation range above 1.3434. A move lower towards 1.3393 is likely in the near term. After this, the pair may consolidate, with potential for a move towards 1.3455 on the upside or a decline towards 1.3290 on the downside. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly downwards, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3494, currently extending up to 1.3500. A move lower towards 1.3393 is likely. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains under pressure amid weak domestic data, deteriorating public finances, and political uncertainty, which continue to weigh on sterling. UK retail sales posted their sharpest decline in nearly a year, while the budget deficit rose to its highest post-pandemic level. Labour market conditions are also softening, with rising unemployment and weak wage growth despite accelerating inflation. Although the Middle East conflict continues to support safe-haven demand for the dollar, sterling has shown some resilience by recovering from recent political pressures. However, technical indicators point to further near-term downside towards 1.3393 and potentially 1.3290. The pound’s trajectory will likely depend on whether domestic economic concerns intensify or geopolitical developments shift the broader risk environment.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 May

EUR/USD Starts the Week Quietly

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD began the week around 1.1600. The main currency pair closed last week virtually unchanged. Markets continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Despite ongoing uncertainty, a series of conflicting signals from the US and Iran has bolstered investor hopes for a possible diplomatic agreement.

At the same time, oil prices remain approximately 50% higher than pre-conflict levels. This dynamic continues to sustain inflationary pressure, forcing major central banks to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy.

Minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed that most Fed officials still allow for the possibility of additional rate hikes, particularly if inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target.

Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike by the end of the year.

US markets will be closed on Monday, so volatility in EUR/USD is expected to be minimal.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1616, currently extending up to 1.1640. A move lower to 1.1600 (testing from above) is likely, followed by a rise towards 1.1660. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of the next growth wave to the 1.1640 level. A decline to 1.1600 is likely, followed by a rise to 1.1660, and another decline to 1.1555. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and pointing firmly downwards to 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is trading quietly at the start of the week, with markets caught between geopolitical hopes and persistent inflationary pressures. While conflicting signals from the US and Iran have raised expectations of a potential diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices remain sharply elevated, around 50% above pre-conflict levels, keeping central banks on alert. FOMC minutes revealed that most Fed officials still see the possibility of additional rate hikes if inflation stays above target, and markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point hike by year-end. With US markets closed for a holiday, volatility is expected to remain subdued. Technically, near-term downside towards 1.1600 and potentially 1.1555 appears likely before any potential bounce.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 May

Australian Dollar Speculators continue to raise Bullish Bets for 4th straight week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (2,459 contracts) with Bitcoin (853 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (654 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,248 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-18,803 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-14,989 contracts), the EuroFX (-6,687 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,666 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,463 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,841 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-740 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Australian Dollar speculators continue to raise bullish bets for 4th straight week

Highlighting this week’s Currency market speculator positioning is the Australian Dollar’s continued speculator strength. The currency speculators raised their Australian Dollar bets very modestly by just 654 contracts, but have now pushed AUD bets higher for a fourth consecutive week—and for the 20th time out of the past 24 weeks—illustrating the recent strength for speculators in the Australian Dollar. In these past 24 weeks, the Australian Dollar has surged by almost +170,000 net contracts, going from a total position of -83,393 contracts on December 2nd to this week’s position of +85,644 net contracts. This week’s position is now the highest level for the Australian Dollar standing since 2013 and not far off from the all-time record, which was a total of 103,376 contracts on December 11th of 2012. In the Forex markets, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar has recently traded at four-year highs but has now dipped for two consecutive weeks. Currently, the AUD is trading at 0.7135, with major support at 0.7100 sitting below while recent highs were capped by resistance above around 0.7270.

The British Pound Sterling fell sharply this week by over -21,000 contracts, and has now has fallen for three out of the past four weeks. This weakness has pushed the overall net speculator position to the most bearish level of the past nine weeks. In the Foreign Exchange market, the GBPUSD currency pair has been consolidating in sideways trading action for over a year against the USD, with support at the 1.3030 level and overhead resistance at the 1.3700 level. Currently, the price is right in the middle of that sideways channel at about 1.3447.

The Japanese Yen also saw lower levels in speculator bets this week by over -18,000 contracts. The speculator position for the Yen has been deteriorating since having a couple of weeks in bullish territory in February and has now seen speculator positions fall in 10 out of the past 13 weeks, with this week’s net speculator standing totaling -93,905 contracts. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Yen has fallen for three consecutive weeks following the Bank of Japan’s intervention to prop up the Yen in late April. The price is approaching those same levels where the BOJ intervened, and it will be interesting looking forward as the market tests the BOJ resolve once again.

The Canadian Dollar speculator bets fell this week by over -14,000 contracts and have fallen for two straight weeks. The CAD speculator position has now fallen in seven out of the past 10 weeks and right now, the Canadian Dollar’s overall speculator standing sits at -31,231 net contracts. In the Forex markets, the Canadian Dollar has declined for three consecutive weeks against the US Dollar and has fallen below its 200-weekly moving average. The CAD, however, continues to trade in an ascending triangle pattern, which has not broken to the downside or the upside yet and will likely resolve itself in the coming weeks.

The US Dollar Index speculator positions dropped this week by -3,666 contracts. This has flipped the US Dollar speculative position into an overall bearish position. This small bearish level represents the first bearish position since March 10th, a span of 10 weeks and signals an overall neutral position in the big scheme of things. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the US Dollar Index has remained in its trading range for basically one full year with a price of 100.00 on the upside and a lower support level of 96.50 representing the bottom of the trading range. At the moment, the US Dollar Index positioning is closer the top of the trading range at a closing price on the week of 99.01.

The British Pound Sterling topped Currency Market price performance.

Price performances for the Currency Markets on the week were led by the British Pound, which rose by almost 1% with a 0.94% 5-Day increase. The Brazilian Real came in second with a 0.72% rise and was followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which saw an uptick by 0.33%.

Next up, the Swiss Franc was modestly higher by 0.30% and was followed by the Mexican Peso, which rounded out the gainers with a 0.18% rise.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar Index were virtually unchanged with a -0.01% decline for each of those markets. The Japanese Yen was lower by -0.08%, followed by the Euro, which dipped by -0.16%, and the Canadian Dollar fell by -0.52%. The biggest decliner on the week was Bitcoin, which fell by -1.99%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (92 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (91 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Swiss Franc (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (52.7 percent)
EuroFX (42.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (45.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (30.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (26.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (71.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (77.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (99.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (18.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (20.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (45.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (91.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (89.8 percent)
Bitcoin (91.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (74.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (22 percent) and the EuroFX (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (11 percent), the Australian Dollar (8 percent) and the Mexican Peso (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-13 percent), Bitcoin (-9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-16.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.3 percent)
EuroFX (16.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (4.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-0.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-12.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (7.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-5.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-12.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (22.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (11.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-8.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-19.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,187 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	34.3	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	38.1	4.3
– Net Position:	-479	-1,551	2,030
– Gross Longs:	21,403	13,920	3,791
– Gross Shorts:	21,882	15,471	1,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	52.4	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	14.0	15.1

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -6,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,200 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	57.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	65.1	6.4
– Net Position:	33,513	-66,535	33,022
– Gross Longs:	233,251	471,453	86,082
– Gross Shorts:	199,738	537,988	53,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	58.2	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-11.5	-16.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -21,248 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,059 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	66.6	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	42.6	10.3
– Net Position:	-64,307	68,698	-4,391
– Gross Longs:	68,075	190,244	25,040
– Gross Shorts:	132,382	121,546	29,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	87.0	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	2.3	5.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -93,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -18,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,102 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	57.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.6	34.3	9.2
– Net Position:	-93,905	90,766	3,139
– Gross Longs:	106,603	226,613	39,648
– Gross Shorts:	200,508	135,847	36,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	73.8	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.0	0.1	-0.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,197 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	83.0	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	38.1	20.2
– Net Position:	-36,937	46,775	-9,838
– Gross Longs:	6,284	86,464	11,198
– Gross Shorts:	43,221	39,689	21,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.0	75.7	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	13.2	-7.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -31,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -14,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,242 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	59.8	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	47.6	11.2
– Net Position:	-31,231	35,724	-4,493
– Gross Longs:	72,674	175,009	28,192
– Gross Shorts:	103,905	139,285	32,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	32.3	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-9.0	-5.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 85,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,990 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	33.3	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	69.7	5.7
– Net Position:	85,644	-109,572	23,928
– Gross Longs:	151,583	100,426	41,158
– Gross Shorts:	65,939	209,998	17,230
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	1.0	90.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-5.3	-5.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,150 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	83.1	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.2	36.1	6.2
– Net Position:	-40,613	43,497	-2,884
– Gross Longs:	12,319	76,920	2,879
– Gross Shorts:	52,932	33,423	5,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	83.0	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	7.2	-24.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,249 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -1,841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,090 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	48.1	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	81.1	1.6
– Net Position:	62,249	-67,299	5,050
– Gross Longs:	95,246	98,026	8,400
– Gross Shorts:	32,997	165,325	3,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	52.5	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-3.8	4.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,459 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,553 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.8	21.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	79.6	0.8
– Net Position:	71,012	-74,999	3,987
– Gross Longs:	95,462	27,975	5,037
– Gross Shorts:	24,450	102,974	1,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.6	7.7	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-21.8	-2.3

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,112 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,259 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.4	0.9	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.2	10.8	4.8
– Net Position:	2,112	-2,272	160
– Gross Longs:	17,791	212	1,262
– Gross Shorts:	15,679	2,484	1,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.5	6.0	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	-0.9	24.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

22 May

USD/JPY: Second Consecutive Week Closes Higher

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.04 at the end of the week, marking the yen’s second consecutive weekly decline. The Japanese currency came under pressure after weaker inflation data reduced expectations of imminent Bank of Japan policy tightening.

Core inflation in Japan slowed to 1.4% in April, down from 1.8% the previous month – the lowest level in four years. Moreover, the indicator has remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the third consecutive month.

At its April meeting, the BOJ sharply raised its core inflation forecast for the current year to 2.8%, up from 1.9%. The regulator attributed this revision to high oil prices amid the Middle East conflict and the continued pass-through of business costs to consumers.

Additional market attention has been drawn to reports that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering an additional budget to compensate for rising energy prices.

At the same time, markets continue to monitor the risk of fresh foreign exchange interventions. The yen remains near the 160-per-dollar level — the level that triggered Japanese authorities’ interventions in late April and early May.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 158.68 and is moving higher towards 160.09. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible pullback to 158.66, with scope for a further decline towards 157.00. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

USD/JPY is set to close its second consecutive week higher as the yen remains under pressure from softer-than-expected Japanese inflation data. Core inflation slowed to a four-year low of 1.4%, falling further below the BOJ’s 2% target and dampening expectations for near-term policy tightening. This contrasts with the BOJ’s upgraded inflation forecast of 2.8%, driven by energy costs related to the Middle East conflict. With the pair hovering near the critical 160 level, where Japanese authorities intervened in late April and early May, markets remain on high alert for potential intervention. Prime Minister Takaichi’s consideration of an additional budget to address energy prices adds another layer of complexity. Technically, further upside towards 160.09 appears likely in the near term.

Conclusion

GBP/USD stabilised following weaker-than-expected UK inflation data, easing concerns about aggressive Bank of England rate hikes. However, the pound faces headwinds from a soft labour market and rising oil prices, suggesting that any recovery may be short-lived. Technical indicators point to a near-term correction before a potential continuation of the broader trend.

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22 May

Week Ahead: EURUSD inches toward make-or-break support

By ForexTime

EURUSD ↓ 1.1% YTD
Germany CPI + US PCE combo = fresh volatility?
EU Flash CPI forecast to trigger moves of ↑ 0.3% & ↓ 0.2%
US April PCE forecast to trigger moves of ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 0.6%
Bloomberg FX model – 71.1% EURUSD – (1.1510 – 1.1730)

The world’s most-traded FX pair is at a crossroads…and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

After a brief pause, EURUSD is heading straight for critical support at 1.1580.

This is the level that could define the pair’s direction for weeks to come. A clean break lower opens the door to steeper losses, while a firm bounce invites bulls back into the scene.

Bloomberg’s FX model puts a 71.1% probability of EURUSD trading within the 1.1510 – 1.1730 range this week – that’s a potential swing of over 100 pips.

Volatility is coming. The only question is which side it favours.

Why is the EURUSD under pressure

1) A broadly stronger dollar amid ongoing geopolitical risk, a limbo in peace talks and growing bets around higher US rates.

2) Technical forces may also be at play with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

Key inflation data from Germany and the United States could spell fresh opportunities for the EURUSD in the week ahead:

Monday, 25th May

• US Memorial Day holiday, with markets closed

Tuesday, 26th May

• GBP: UK CBI distributive trades

• USDInd: US Chicago Fed national activity index, CB consumer confidence, Dallas Fed manufacturing index, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

Wednesday, 27th May

• AUD: Australia CPI, RBA trimmed mean CPI, construction work done

• EUR: Eurozone new car registrations

• USDInd: US MBA mortgage rates, ADP employment change, API crude oil inventories

• JPY: BoJ Governor Ueda speech

Thursday, 28th May

• KRW: South Korea interest rate decision

• EUR: Eurozone economic sentiment, Italy business and consumer confidence, Spain business confidence

• CAD: Canada current account, BoC financial stability report

• USDInd: US Core PCE, PCE inflation, GDP second estimate, durable goods orders, personal income, personal spending, initial jobless claims, new home sales, EIA crude oil inventories

Friday, 29th May

• JPY: Japan unemployment, industrial production, consumer confidence, retail sales

• GBP: UK Nationwide house prices

• EUR: France, Spain, Italy and Germany preliminary CPI, German unemployment

• CAD: Canada GDP

• USDInd: US goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI

Here are 4 key themes that could rock EURUSD:

1. Ongoing Iran war

As the Iran war enters its 13th week, the global economy is absorbing the pressure from high energy prices and prolonged uncertainty.

While there seems to be some progress in talks, Tehran has publicly made it clear that it will not be handing over its enriched uranium stockpiles. Should tensions escalate, this could boost the dollar – enforcing downside pressure on the EURUSD.

2. US April PCE report – Thursday 28th May

It’s a big week for the United States due to a volley of economic reports including the latest PCE report.

The February US personal income and spending report including the PCE index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — will offer key insight into the direction of price pressures.

Markets are forecasting PCE deflator YoY to jump3.9% in April with the core figure rising to 3.3% from 3.2%.

Ultimately, any signs of rising price pressure may reinforce bets around higher US interest rates.

Traders are currently pricing in a 77% probability of a 25-basis point cut by December.

The EURUSD may tumble on signs of rising price pressures in the United States.
A cooler-than-expected PCE report could boost the EURUSD.

3. Germany CPI report

A string of high impact data releases from Europe including the key CPI from Germany may provide critical insight into the economic outlook.

On Friday 29th May, the latest inflation figures from the largest country in Europe will be published with markets forecasting CPI to cool 2.8% YoY compared to 2.9% in the previous month.

Signs of rising inflationary pressures may reinforce bets around the ECB hiking as soon as June.

4. Technical forces

The EURUSD is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

Should 1.1580 prove reliable support, this may trigger a rebound toward the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.

Weakness below 1.1580 could see a decline toward 1.1510 – the lower bound of Bloomberg’s FX model.

(Source BBG)

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 71.1% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.1510 – 1.1730 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 May

GBP/USD Recovers Amid UK Inflation Data: Positive Signals Emerge

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD was trading at 1.3428 on Thursday, following a period of volatility after the release of UK inflation data, which came in weaker than expected despite geopolitical tensions over Iran and rising oil prices.

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.8% in April, down from 3.3% in March, while the market had anticipated a reading of 3%.

The market interpreted these figures as a signal that the Bank of England may not need to raise interest rates aggressively in the near term. This has reduced expectations of further tightening and weighed on the pound.

Weak labour market data in the UK added to the negative sentiment. Recent statistics indicated a slowdown in hiring and a decline in new vacancies, reflecting the impact of the broader economic environment.

It is important to note that the effect of slower inflation may be temporary. Since the onset of the Iran conflict, global oil prices have increased by approximately 50%, and this rise is likely to feed into the UK economy and consumer prices over time.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the pair is trading within a broad consolidation range above 1.3388, currently extending up to 1.3490. A move lower towards 1.3380 is likely. After this, the pair may consolidate, with potential to move to 1.3515 on the upside or decline towards 1.3200 on the downside. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with the signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3434, currently extending up to 1.3464. A move lower towards 1.3333 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

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20 May

EUR/USD Near Six-Week Low as Market Tensions Rise

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD slipped to 1.1598 on Wednesday, keeping the pair at its lowest level in six weeks. The US dollar is supported by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, which is increasing inflationary risks and raising expectations of potential Federal Reserve tightening.

US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could resume attacks on Iran within “two to three days” if Tehran does not accept the terms of a peace agreement. The ongoing conflict continues to restrict navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher and increasing global inflationary pressures.

Amid this backdrop, market expectations of a Fed rate cut this year have largely evaporated. Investors are increasingly anticipating another rate hike before the end of 2026.

Attention was also drawn to comments from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Anna Paulson. She expressed support for maintaining current interest rates and noted that any reduction in borrowing costs would likely only be feasible with a sustained slowdown in inflation.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 EUR/USD chart, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1600, with potential downside towards 1.1550. A corrective rebound to 1.1600 (testing from below) is possible, followed by a further decline towards 1.1460. The MACD indicator confirms this bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued downside momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1614 and is now moving lower towards 1.1550. A rebound to 1.1615 may follow before a further decline towards 1.1460. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, supporting the US dollar. Technical indicators suggest further downside is likely, although short-term corrective moves are possible. Market focus will remain on US-Iran developments and upcoming US economic data for guidance.

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18 May

USD/JPY Rises for Sixth Straight Day: Yen Back on the Cusp of Intervention

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY climbed to 158.93 on Monday, marking the yen’s sixth consecutive session of decline. The Japanese currency is under pressure from a stronger dollar amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this year to curb inflation.

US inflation is accelerating due to the energy shock caused by the ongoing Middle East conflict. At the same time, the US and Iran have yet to reach a peace agreement or make progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The USD/JPY exchange rate is once again approaching the key level of 160, where Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the yen in late April.

Markets are closely monitoring the risk of fresh intervention by Tokyo. Additional attention has been drawn to statements from Japanese officials that authorities are ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market as many times as necessary.

Support for such expectations has also come from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who previously praised Japan’s actions to stabilise the yen.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 158.33 and is moving higher towards 159.30. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible pullback to 158.30, with scope for a further decline towards 157.00. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has reached 159.00 and is pulling back towards 158.80. A subsequent rise towards 159.30 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 50, indicating that short-term downside pressure may develop.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues its six-day rally as the yen returns to intervention-warning territory. The dollar is being bolstered by expectations that the Fed may need to raise rates to combat inflation fuelled by the Middle East energy shock, while US-Iran negotiations remain stalled. With the pair approaching the psychologically critical 160 level, where Japanese authorities intervened in late April, markets are on high alert for potential official action. Tokyo has repeatedly signalled its readiness to intervene, and US Treasury Secretary Bessent has offered support for Japan’s approach. Technically, further upside towards 159.30 appears likely before any pullback, but intervention risks may cap gains near current levels.

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14 May

GBP/USD Under Policy Pressure: What Lies Ahead for the Prime Minister?

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD held at 1.3528 on Thursday following an overnight decline. The pound remains under pressure, close to its lowest levels since late April, amid media reports of a potential leadership contest within the ruling party. According to The Times, British Health Minister Wes Streeting is preparing to launch a campaign against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Despite pressure from parts of the government and more than 80 Labour Party MPs, Starmer has reiterated that he does not intend to resign following the party’s weak performance in the local elections. The cabinet composition remains largely stable, despite a few resignations from junior ministers.

External factors continue to weigh on the pound. Talks between the US and Iran remain inconclusive, while restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz keep oil prices elevated. Against this backdrop, the market continues to price in nearly three Bank of England rate hikes by the end of the year.

Investors are also awaiting the release of new UK macroeconomic data, including first-quarter GDP figures.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a broad consolidation range above 1.3515, currently extending up to 1.3530. A move lower towards 1.3480 is possible. After this, the pair may consolidate before attempting a move higher towards 1.3650 or a further decline towards 1.3340. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3515, currently extending down to 1.3483. A rebound towards 1.3530 (testing from below) is possible, followed by a potential move lower towards 1.3480. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains under dual pressure from domestic political uncertainty and global economic risks. Further weakness in the pound is possible if leadership concerns and geopolitical tensions persist, while UK GDP data may act as a short-term catalyst for volatility.

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13 May

USD/JPY Continues to Climb Amid External and Domestic Pressures

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 157.65 on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive day of gains. The yen came under pressure following stronger-than-expected US inflation data, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance.

Market focus remains on the Bank of Japan. Following its April meeting, some policymakers signalled the possibility of a further rate hike. Rising global oil prices are adding to inflationary pressures in Japan. The OECD forecasts that the BoJ’s key rate could reach 2% by the end of 2027.

Currency markets are also watching for potential interventions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that Washington and Tokyo view excessive currency volatility as undesirable, which was seen as indirect support for Japan’s efforts to stabilise the yen.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading around 157.33, with a breakout suggesting further upside towards 157.97. A short-term correction to 156.50 is possible before a potential move higher resumes. The MACD indicator, above zero and pointing firmly upwards, supports further gains.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has reached 157.77 and is moving lower towards 157.30. A subsequent rise towards 157.97 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms short-term bullish momentum, although a pullback may develop, indicating some near-term downside risk.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is advancing under both external and domestic influences, supported by technical indicators. While short-term corrections are possible, the broader trend remains upward.

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Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.