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EURUSD Ahead of the New Week: Expecting High Volatility

The EURUSD pair is starting Monday’s trading session near 1.1468.

This week, global financial markets will closely monitor two pivotal drivers: the prospects of a US-Iran nuclear deal and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Any signs of progress in the negotiations could strip the geopolitical premium out of oil prices, subsequently weakening safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Concurrently, the market is bracing for the first Fed meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, which is expected to set the tone for interest rate expectations heading into the second half of the year.

This meeting is critical for EURUSD. Just last week, robust US inflation and labor market data bolstered the Greenback, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance. Meanwhile, investors will continue to digest the impact of the ECB’s recent rate hike, looking for further guidance from European policymakers.

Additional direction will come from US macroeconomic releases, including retail sales and industrial production, which will provide further clarity on the health of the US economy and the trajectory of its monetary policy.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1575, briefly testing the downside toward 1.1550.

Upside Scenario: A breakout above this range could trigger a corrective wave toward 1.1612, followed by a subsequent decline back to 1.1500.

Downside Scenario: A clean break below the consolidation range will open the door for a downward wave targeting 1.1444.

Technical Confirmation: The MACD indicator supports the bearish outlook. Its signal line remains above the zero mark but is pointing sharply downward, reflecting persistent bearish momentum and potential for trend continuation.

On the 1-hour chart, the market has completed an upward wave toward 1.1612 and is currently consolidating just below this level.

The immediate outlook suggests an expansion of this consolidation range—downward to 1.1500 and upward to 1.1550—before a broader decline resumes toward 1.1444.

Technical Confirmation: This scenario is backed by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line has crossed below the 80 level and is heading straight down toward 20, signaling oversold conditions ahead.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Jun

Large Currency Speculator Roundup: Mexican Peso Bets rise as Euro, CAD Bets drop

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (9,144 contracts) and with the Bitcoin (560 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-34,934 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-25,888 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-23,652 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-16,251 contracts), the British Pound (-11,995 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,756 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,325 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,134 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-2,374 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Roundup: Mexican Peso Bets rise as Euro, CAD Bets drop

Highlighting the major Currencies market futures positioning this week was the Mexican peso, which was the highest weekly gainer. The Mexican peso position rose by over 9,000 weekly contracts this week and is currently the most bullish of the Currencies right now according to net speculator position. The overall position is now at a standing of 63,801 net contracts and the peso position has been overall in a bullish level for 72 consecutive weeks. Recently, the Bank of Mexico cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to a new level of 6.50% with analysts speculating that this could end the easing cycle which began over a year ago and the next path for interest rates is uncertain. In the Forex markets, the Mexican peso has been on a strong uptrend since February 2025 with the MXN is up by over 22% since the lowest levels of 2025 against the US dollar.

Next up, the Euro speculator position dropped by over -34,000 contracts this week, marking the most bearish weekly change in the past 12 weeks. Overall, the euro speculator position has now fallen for three out of the past four weeks and has fallen to the lowest standing since April. The current level of net speculator positions is at 13,932 contracts and is essentially a neutral-to-small bullish level in the big scheme of things. The European Central Bank, this week (on Thursday June 11th), increased their interest rate by 25 basis points to a total level of 2.25% and marked the first rate increase in almost three years. Despite the weakness in speculative bets for the week, the euro price in the Forex markets continues to trade in a sideways range between 1.1500 and 1.1950, with this week’s close for the euro against the US dollar at 1.1617.

The Canadian dollar speculator position dropped sharply and has now fallen for five consecutive weeks. The Canadian dollar positioning has now fallen by -105,340 net contracts in just the past five weeks and is now at a net position standing of -119,999 contracts. This marks the lowest or most bearish level for the Canadian dollar contracts since December 9th, a span of 26 weeks. The Bank of Canada this week held its interest rate steady at 2.25%, with uncertainty which way policy could go in the near future as inflation due to the Iran war is an issue. In the Forex markets, the Canadian dollar against the US dollar saw a slight uptick this week after falling in four out of the previous five weeks that saw prices drop to the downside out of its previous ascending triangle pattern. The Canadian dollar was helped out and bounced off of resistance at the 0.7150 level, which is where support lies currently and could mark a level of down-trending action if this level is broken.

The US Dollar Index saw weekly speculator bets decline by over -2,000 contracts this week following two weeks of gains. The current US Dollar Index positioning is very much in a neutral-to-small-bullish level with an overall net speculator standing of just 1,384 contracts. The DX speculator positioning has been in this small bullish situation now for 13 consecutive weeks with only 1 small dip into a small bearish position in that time-frame. Before that, the DX positioning had been in an overall bearish level for 38 out of the previous 39 weeks through March 10th. The US Dollar Index price this week tested the upper range of its sideways channel that the currency has been in for quite some time. This channel has a low level of 96.50 with an upper resistance level of 100.00. This week, the US Dollar Index price tested the 100.00 level and was rejected lower with a close at 99.49. A breakout above 100 could see a play towards 102.50 in the near future.

Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso lead Currency market price performances

The leading gains for the major Currency markets this week saw the Brazilian Real up by 2.38% over the past five days. The Mexican Peso was next with a gain over 1% with a 1.25% rise.

The New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.64%, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which rose by 0.50%. Next up, the Euro was higher by 0.41%, while Bitcoin was marginally higher by 0.32%. The Australian Dollar was virtually unchanged with an uptick of 0.09%, followed by the Japanese Yen, which edged higher by 0.05%, and the Swiss Franc, which saw an uptick by 0.03%.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar was lower by -0.32%. The US Dollar Index was the biggest decliner on the week with a -0.49% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (11 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (28 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.3 percent)
EuroFX (35.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (15.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (32.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (65.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (77.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (32.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (39.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (74.1 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.8 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (17 percent) and Bitcoin (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-28 percent), Japanese Yen (-12 percent) and the EuroFX (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-8.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.3 percent)
EuroFX (-8.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-0.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (0.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-35.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-27.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-9.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-1.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (2.5 percent)
Bitcoin (11.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (7.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,758 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	32.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.7	39.2	3.7
– Net Position:	1,384	-3,599	2,215
– Gross Longs:	27,908	16,092	4,059
– Gross Shorts:	26,524	19,691	1,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	46.8	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	4.9	28.6

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,866 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	58.7	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	63.0	7.6
– Net Position:	13,932	-38,085	24,153
– Gross Longs:	219,564	511,359	90,399
– Gross Shorts:	205,632	549,444	66,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	68.0	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	12.7	-32.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -64,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,218 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	74.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	48.8	12.3
– Net Position:	-64,213	75,870	-11,657
– Gross Longs:	45,743	218,025	24,172
– Gross Shorts:	109,956	142,155	35,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	89.8	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	4.6	-21.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -145,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,567 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	62.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	33.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-145,818	142,369	3,449
– Gross Longs:	121,520	313,351	46,489
– Gross Shorts:	267,338	170,982	43,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.6	86.8	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	10.9	1.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,909 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	82.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	38.9	21.2
– Net Position:	-36,665	49,741	-13,076
– Gross Longs:	7,335	94,612	11,370
– Gross Shorts:	44,000	44,871	24,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	80.6	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	11.4	-23.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -119,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -25,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,111 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	44.8	10.5
– Net Position:	-119,999	128,812	-8,813
– Gross Longs:	37,944	300,856	31,377
– Gross Shorts:	157,943	172,044	40,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	69.8	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.1	36.9	-28.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -23,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,812 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	54.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	66.6	6.4
– Net Position:	18,160	-36,669	18,509
– Gross Longs:	92,995	172,451	38,751
– Gross Shorts:	74,835	209,120	20,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	32.8	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	26.5	-14.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -31,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,246 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	83.4	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	60.2	4.0
– Net Position:	-31,571	34,705	-3,134
– Gross Longs:	11,764	124,482	2,830
– Gross Shorts:	43,335	89,777	5,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	73.1	9.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.9	-14.4	-25.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,801 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 9,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,657 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	45.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	77.3	1.7
– Net Position:	63,801	-68,351	4,550
– Gross Longs:	100,199	96,959	8,190
– Gross Shorts:	36,398	165,310	3,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	51.8	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.0	-2.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,980 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.0	22.2	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	64.0	1.2
– Net Position:	43,846	-46,946	3,100
– Gross Longs:	81,814	24,845	4,463
– Gross Shorts:	37,968	71,791	1,363
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.8	27.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	2.7	-7.1

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,458 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.9	0.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.6	15.2	5.7
– Net Position:	3,018	-2,906	-112
– Gross Longs:	17,178	106	1,009
– Gross Shorts:	14,160	3,012	1,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-11.8	-2.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

11 Jun

USD/JPY Continues Its Climb: Is There a Limit?

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 160.52 on Thursday, marking its highest level since July 2024. The Japanese yen remains under significant pressure despite a notable acceleration in Japan’s producer price inflation.

According to the latest data, Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 6.1% year-on-year in May, up from a revised 5.3% in April. The figure exceeded market expectations of 5.5% and reached its highest level in three years. Rising energy costs and the yen’s weakness remain the primary drivers of producer price growth.

The stronger-than-expected inflation data has reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates as early as its next policy meeting. Market participants increasingly believe the central bank will need to respond to mounting inflationary pressures, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East and the continued depreciation of the Japanese currency.

Investor attention is also focused on comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, with markets seeking clearer signals on the future direction of monetary policy. Investors are already pricing in the possibility of another rate increase in September and are not ruling out an additional move in December.

Despite these expectations, the yen remains under pressure. The strength of the US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance continue to outweigh support from potential Bank of Japan rate hikes.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 160.30 level and is developing an upward move towards 160.85. This target is expected to be reached today, followed by a corrective pullback towards 160.30. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is building an upward structure towards 160.85. A correction towards 160.30 may follow before another advance towards 160.90, with scope for the broader trend to extend to 162.00.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line remains above the 50 level and is moving towards 80, suggesting that upside momentum is likely to persist in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to benefit from a strong US dollar and expectations of prolonged Federal Reserve policy tightness, despite growing speculation of further Bank of Japan rate increases. While the pair remains firmly bullish, its approach to new multi-year highs may increase market sensitivity to any signs of intervention or policy shifts from Japanese authorities.

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09 Jun

GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure Despite Attempts to Recover

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD attempted to move closer to 1.3350 on Tuesday but remained under pressure. The US dollar continues to benefit from strong US labour market data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance and could even consider further interest rate increases before the end of the year.

Developments in the Middle East provided additional support to the dollar. Following fresh Israeli strikes on targets in Iran, oil prices rose sharply, boosting demand for the US currency as a safe-haven asset. As a result, GBP/USD continues to trade near its lowest levels in almost two months.

Sentiment towards sterling has also been affected by changing interest rate expectations. While markets had previously anticipated a more aggressive tightening cycle from the Bank of England due to inflation risks, investors are now focusing increasingly on the prospect of higher rates in the US.

In addition, the latest Bank of England survey revealed a slowdown in inflation expectations among British businesses. This has reduced the likelihood of a near-term rate increase and added further pressure on the pound.

For now, the combination of a strong US dollar, elevated oil prices, and the Bank of England’s cautious stance continues to favour the US currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a broad consolidation range above the 1.3306 level. The range currently extends up to 1.3369 and down to 1.3329. A breakout above the range could open the way for further gains towards 1.3380, while a move below the range would increase the likelihood of a decline towards 1.3280.

The MACD indicator broadly supports this scenario. Although the signal line remains below zero, it is pointing upwards, suggesting that short-term recovery attempts remain possible.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a narrower consolidation range around 1.3333, recently extending down to 1.3306. A move higher towards 1.3380 is expected in the near term.

The Stochastic oscillator supports the likelihood of short-term volatility. Its signal line is above 80 and turning sharply lower towards 20, indicating that a corrective pullback may develop before the next directional move.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains vulnerable as strong US economic data, elevated energy prices, and shifting interest rate expectations continue to support the dollar. While technical indicators suggest that a short-term rebound is possible, the broader outlook remains challenging for sterling unless market sentiment towards the UK economy improves.

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08 Jun

EUR/USD at April Lows: What’s Next for the Pair?

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD began the new week at 1.1520. The US dollar ended last week with gains of more than 1% following a strong US labour market report. In May 2026, the US economy added 172,000 jobs, significantly above the market forecast of 85,000. The data exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy.

The strong employment figures bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance and could even raise interest rates before the end of the year.

Markets have little doubt that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting. However, expectations of further policy tightening by the end of 2026 continue to rise.

The situation in the Middle East continues to support the US dollar. Negotiations between the US and Iran have effectively stalled, while renewed tensions have kept oil prices above USD 90 per barrel. Elevated energy prices are increasing inflation risks and boosting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Against this backdrop, the euro has come under significant pressure. Energy-related risks facing European economies remain a key factor weighing on the single currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around the 1.1525 level, currently extending between 1.1510 and 1.1538. A breakout to the upside could trigger a corrective move towards 1.1570, while a downside breakout would open the way for a decline towards 1.1444.

The MACD indicator supports the bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, indicating sustained downside momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1525 and is now consolidating around this level. Further consolidation within the range is expected, with potential extensions towards 1.1500 on the downside and 1.1570 on the upside. After that, a move lower towards 1.1444 remains the preferred scenario.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line at 80 and turning lower towards 20, signalling growing bearish momentum in the short term.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as strong US economic data, expectations of prolonged restrictive Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical tensions continue to support the dollar. While a short-term corrective rebound cannot be ruled out, technical indicators suggest that the broader bearish trend remains intact.

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05 Jun

EUR/USD: All Eyes on Non-Farm Payrolls

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD was trading at 1.1613 on Friday. As the week draws to a close, the US dollar remains on track to post gains, supported by ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and continued demand for safe-haven assets.

US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict are approaching their final stage and that Washington has no interest in returning to a full-scale confrontation with Iran. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that no significant progress has been achieved in the talks yet. Adding to market concerns, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement rejected a US-backed ceasefire proposal between Israel and Lebanon.

Investor attention is firmly focused on today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. The labour market data is expected to provide fresh insight into the health of the US economy and the likely direction of future Federal Reserve policy.

Recent employment figures have highlighted the resilience of the US economy, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance. Against a backdrop of elevated energy prices and inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict, markets continue to price in the possibility of another interest rate increase before the end of the year.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around the 1.1620 level. The current structure suggests a move lower towards 1.1525, with scope for an extension to 1.1500.

The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1644 before declining to 1.1607. In effect, the pair has formed the boundaries of a consolidation range around 1.1620.

A breakout above the range could trigger another upward move towards 1.1660, with scope for an extension to 1.1675 before the broader downtrend resumes towards 1.1500.

A downside breakout would strengthen the case for a direct move towards 1.1500, potentially marking the completion of the third wave within the current bearish trend.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line turning lower from 80 and pointing towards 20, indicating the beginning of a short-term decline.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of prolonged restrictive US monetary policy continue to support the dollar. The Non-Farm Payrolls report will be the key catalyst for the market, while technical indicators suggest that downside risks remain dominant in the near term.

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04 Jun

Gold Remains Under Pressure, but a Rebound Is Still Possible

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold prices rose to 4,472 USD per troy ounce on Thursday. Despite the modest rebound, the precious metal is still attempting to recover from a weekly decline of nearly 2%.

Pressure on gold continues to build as expectations grow that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may need to maintain tighter monetary policy to combat inflation. Much of this concern stems from the recent surge in energy prices.

An additional negative factor has been the renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Prospects for a near-term agreement between the US and Iran have deteriorated significantly following a fresh exchange of strikes between the two sides. Bahrain and Kuwait have also become involved in the conflict, marking the most serious escalation since the ceasefire was introduced in early April.

Ongoing tensions and de facto restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated, increasing inflation risks and reinforcing expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer.

Further support for this view came from comments made by Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack. According to Hammack, the Fed may be forced to raise interest rates again if inflationary pressures continue to intensify.

Investor attention is now firmly focused on Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. US labour market data could significantly influence expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy and, consequently, the outlook for gold.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,478 USD level after a retest from below. A move lower towards 4,360 USD is expected, followed by a corrective rebound towards 4,420 USD. After that, the market may resume its decline towards 4,238 USD, with scope for a further move to 4,180 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum, with the signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,478 USD level and moved lower towards 4,422 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,478 USD as a retest from below remains possible before another decline towards 4,250 USD. A subsequent recovery towards 4,390 USD may follow. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line below the 80 level and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating persistent downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold remains vulnerable to further losses as elevated energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to weigh on sentiment. However, short-term corrective rebounds remain possible, particularly as investors await key US labour market data that could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve.

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03 Jun

EUR/USD on Edge as Markets Await Key Employment Data

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD remained under pressure on Wednesday, holding at 1.1629. The US dollar continues to draw support from difficulties in negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as a renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has increased demand for safe-haven assets.

According to the US Central Command, Iran launched ballistic missiles towards neighbouring states. In response, US forces carried out strikes on targets on Qeshm Island following alleged attacks linked to Tehran.

The ongoing conflict has kept energy prices elevated, fuelling concerns about inflation and reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer than previously anticipated.

Additional support for the dollar came from US labour market data. Figures released on Tuesday showed that job openings rose to their highest level in nearly two years in April, while layoffs declined. The data highlighted the resilience of the US economy despite ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Investor attention is now turning to the ADP report, which may provide further insight into labour market conditions.

However, the key event of the week remains Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could offer important clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 EUR/USD chart, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1635, currently extending between 1.1605 and 1.1654. A move lower towards 1.1585 is likely. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1655 and is now moving lower towards 1.1585. A corrective rebound to 1.1636 may follow, before a further decline towards 1.1555. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line around the 50 level and pointing downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as geopolitical tensions and strong US labour market data continue to support the dollar. With the ADP report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release approaching, traders are likely to remain cautious. At the same time, technical indicators suggest a bias towards further short-term weakness in the pair.

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02 Jun

GBP/USD in a State of Uncertainty: Risks Remain, but Market Reactions Are Muted

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD showed little movement on Tuesday, holding steady at 1.3453. The pound remains within its established trading range as investors continue to assess the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran and their potential impact on the global economy.

Talks between Washington and Tehran are ongoing, but fresh incidents in the Persian Gulf have renewed doubts about the swift restoration of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains one of the most important routes for global oil and gas supplies.

Oil prices rose on Monday, although Brent crude recorded its largest monthly decline since March 2020 in May, falling nearly 20%. Despite this correction, oil prices remain approximately 30% higher than pre-conflict levels, keeping inflation risks elevated.

This dynamic is particularly significant for the UK. The British economy is considerably more dependent on energy imports than the US, meaning higher oil and gas prices are transmitted more quickly into business costs and consumer spending.

The pound continues to benefit from relatively high interest rates. Earlier in the year, markets had expected two rate cuts from the Bank of England. However, following the surge in energy prices, investors have begun pricing in the possibility of further policy tightening to contain inflation.

The market is now factoring in roughly one Bank of England rate increase before the end of the year and is partially pricing in the possibility of a second move.

However, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey struck a more dovish tone last week. He suggested that a temporary overshoot of the Bank’s 2% inflation target does not necessarily warrant an immediate increase in interest rates. This shift in tone has reduced expectations of aggressive policy action in the coming months.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the pair is trading within a broad consolidation range above 1.3417, currently extending up to 1.3508 and down to 1.3406. A breakout above the range could open the way for further gains towards 1.3533, while a downside breakout could pave the way for a move towards 1.3290. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a narrower consolidation range around 1.3470, recently extending down to 1.3406. The next expected move is a rise towards 1.3533. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards towards 80.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains range-bound as investors weigh geopolitical risks, energy-driven inflation concerns, and the outlook for Bank of England policy. While the pound continues to draw support from expectations of relatively high interest rates, the market remains cautious, awaiting clearer signals from both policymakers and global developments.

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01 Jun

USD/JPY Approaches 160.00: Is Another Intervention Coming?

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY continued its advance on Monday, reaching 159.46. The Japanese yen therefore remains under pressure near the key 160.00 level against the US dollar. This was the threshold that previously triggered currency market interventions by the Japanese authorities.

Data released on Friday confirmed that Japan spent JPY 11.7 trillion supporting its national currency at the end of April. As a result, the market received official confirmation of the large-scale intervention that traders had previously only suspected.

With the exchange rate approaching 160.00 once again, investors continue to assess the likelihood of further action from the Bank of Japan. The market remains divided over whether the central bank will opt for another interest rate increase this month. Uncertainty is being amplified by risks associated with the situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on the global economy.

Investor attention is now focused on upcoming speeches by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. His comments could provide fresh clues regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Additional pressure on the yen came from disappointing corporate investment data. Capital expenditure by Japanese companies in the first quarter showed no growth compared with the previous year. This points to slowing business investment activity and raises concerns about the sustainability of domestic economic growth.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around the 159.00 level. A breakout to the upside is developing a growth wave towards 159.77. We expect this target to be reached today, followed by a pullback towards 159.00. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero and is pointing firmly upwards, indicating potential for further gains.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming an upward structure towards 159.60. A corrective move to 159.20 may follow before another advance towards 159.60 and potentially 159.77. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line above the 50 level and rising towards 80, suggesting that bullish momentum remains intact in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains firmly supported as the yen struggles against weak domestic fundamentals and ongoing global uncertainty. With the pair approaching the critical 160.00 level, traders are increasingly focused on the risk of renewed intervention by Japanese authorities and any policy signals from the Bank of Japan.

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