Forex and Currency News

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Currency Speculators boosted Euro bets, cut GBP & Yen bets on Election Day

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Swiss Franc

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (28,651 contracts) with the Swiss Franc (4,017 contracts), Australian Dollar (3,460 contracts) and Bitcoin (412 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,272 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-19,350 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-8,256 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-7,730 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,032 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,950 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-1,589 contracts) also seeing decreased bets on the week.

Currency Speculators boosted Euro bets, cut GBP & Yen bets on Election Day

Highlighting the COT currency’s data for the week was the sharp changes in positioning on the US Presidential election.

The Euro currency positions jumped by over +28,000 net contracts on the election day of Tuesday November 5th. The Euro positions had been falling sharply recently as speculators cut their bets for five straight weeks and for seven out of the previous eight weeks prior to Tuesday. This was an 8-week drop by -150,322 contracts for the Euro and had dropped the overall standing to -50,304 contracts on October 29th before this week’s turnaround.

Despite this week’s boost in bets, the Euro exchange rate had a tough week and fell by over 1 percent against the US Dollar. The Euro has declined in five out of the past six weeks and has now slid from trading at 1.12 in late September to a 1.0729 close this week.

The British pound speculator bets this week dropped by over -21,000 contracts and decreased for the fifth consecutive week. The GBP speculator positions have fallen by a total of -48,681 contracts over these last five weeks and this weakness has brought the overall speculator standing down to a 19-week low, dating back to June 25th. The overall speculator position does remain bullish at a total of 45,084 contracts and has been in a continuous bullish level since May 21st, 2024.

The GBP exchange also has been on the weaker side lately and has now fallen from near 1.3400 in late September to this week’s closing price of approximately 1.2912.

The Japanese yen bets saw a big slide this week and the yen bets have been lower in each of the past six weeks. The total decline of spec bets in the past six weeks has reached -110,178 contracts and has taken the overall speculator standing down from a total of +66,011 contracts on September 17th to this week’s level of -44,167 contracts.

The yen exchange versus the USD has declined for six out of the past eight weeks with the US Dollar (USDJPY currency pair) going from around the 140.75 exchange rate in late September to this week’s close at approximately 152.60.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (98 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The British Pound (56 percent) and the Japanese Yen (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent), the Canadian Dollar (9 percent), the EuroFX (12 percent) and Bitcoin (19.5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.0 percent)
EuroFX (12.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (65.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (56.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (63.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (40.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (32.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (12.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (95.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (48.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (40.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (48.0 percent)
Bitcoin (19.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (10.5 percent)

Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (30 percent) and the Brazilian Real (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (9 percent) and Bitcoin (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-49 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-44 percent), EuroFX (-39 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-1.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.2 percent)
EuroFX (-39.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-50.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-18.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-44.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-32.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-21.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-34.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-49.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-42.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (30.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (48.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-0.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (9.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (13.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (23.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (26.6 percent)
Bitcoin (1.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-19.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 95 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.0	19.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.7	19.6	10.1
– Net Position:	95	-46	-49
– Gross Longs:	20,332	6,004	3,049
– Gross Shorts:	20,237	6,050	3,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	94.0	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-1.9	19.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	59.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	59.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-21,653	617	21,036
– Gross Longs:	159,900	381,704	75,889
– Gross Shorts:	181,553	381,087	54,853
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	88.6	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.3	42.1	-45.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	25.7	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	51.0	11.4
– Net Position:	45,084	-55,560	10,476
– Gross Longs:	120,737	56,459	35,517
– Gross Shorts:	75,653	112,019	25,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	39.3	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	19.4	-14.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	57.7	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	37.6	16.6
– Net Position:	-44,167	47,295	-3,128
– Gross Longs:	60,334	135,946	35,953
– Gross Shorts:	104,501	88,651	39,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.9	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.0	45.9	-35.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	76.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	24.4	25.3
– Net Position:	-29,981	39,519	-9,538
– Gross Longs:	8,107	58,057	9,674
– Gross Shorts:	38,088	18,538	19,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	63.9	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.7	29.5	-34.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -175,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	81.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	27.3	10.1
– Net Position:	-175,229	180,918	-5,689
– Gross Longs:	26,816	272,938	28,368
– Gross Shorts:	202,045	92,020	34,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	90.6	14.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.1	49.8	-34.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.6	33.3	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	51.2	13.9
– Net Position:	30,976	-31,759	783
– Gross Longs:	91,488	59,108	25,478
– Gross Shorts:	60,512	90,867	24,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	11.0	52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.0	-16.2	-38.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	57.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.3	41.4	8.2
– Net Position:	-8,199	9,620	-1,421
– Gross Longs:	21,855	34,368	3,501
– Gross Shorts:	30,054	24,748	4,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	73.2	35.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	19.3	-48.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 31,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	48.6	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	67.4	5.3
– Net Position:	31,095	-27,000	-4,095
– Gross Longs:	65,501	69,905	3,587
– Gross Shorts:	34,406	96,905	7,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.7	56.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-7.7	-14.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	43.0	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	22.4	4.7
– Net Position:	-12,525	13,371	-846
– Gross Longs:	30,318	27,929	2,214
– Gross Shorts:	42,843	14,558	3,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.2	61.7	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-21.9	-7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.2	6.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.7	3.1	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,457	927	530
– Gross Longs:	26,303	1,907	1,443
– Gross Shorts:	27,760	980	913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	86.6	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-4.1	4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

08 Nov

EUR/USD Stabilises, Considers Trump’s Impact

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD is settling around 1.0785, assessing the market impact of this week’s events. With Donald Trump’s return as US President, the market is recalibrating expectations around inflation and economic policies that his administration may reintroduce.

Trump’s protectionist stance could stir inflationary pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates than anticipated. This potential for elevated rates is boosting the dollar’s appeal.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% in line with market predictions. The Fed’s commentary suggested no deviations from its planned rate trajectory, hinting at continued easing.

Looking ahead, another rate reduction of 25 basis points is expected at the Fed’s December meeting, continuing its cautious but steady approach to monetary easing.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair has completed a bullish move towards 1.0820, as part of an ongoing upward impulse. Current market behaviour suggests a retracement to 1.0758 before resuming its ascent towards 1.0833. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which, although below zero, is trending upwards, signalling a potential bullish continuation.

The hourly frame shows EUR/USD undergoing a corrective phase to 1.0758. Upon reaching this level, a rebound to 1.0833 is expected, followed by another potential pullback to 1.0758. The stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line poised to rise towards 80, suggesting increasing bullish momentum.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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07 Nov

Gold Retreats as Trump Victory Bolsters USD

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices tumbled over 3% to 2650 USD per troy ounce amid a surging US dollar, influenced by Donald Trump’s definitive win in the US presidential election. As of Thursday, gold prices are holding steady near three-week lows, reflecting ongoing pressure from a robust dollar.

Market anticipation has shifted, with investors expecting a more conservative approach from the Federal Reserve to interest rate cuts. Trump’s victory, perceived as pro-inflation due to his protectionist policies, could prompt the Fed to maintain higher lending rates to counter potential inflation spikes, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like Gold.

Today’s focus is squarely on the Fed’s interest rate decision, which is anticipated to bring a 25-basis-point cut. This has been priced into the market, influencing the current Gold prices.

Gold’s future movements will hinge heavily on the Fed’s commentary and subsequent rate decisions. While rates are projected to decrease, the pace and extent of these cuts will be critical for Gold’s appeal.

Technical analysis of XAUUSD

Gold’s market dynamics recently peaked at 2790.00, after which a consolidation range formed below this level. Exiting this range downward opened the pathway for a significant correction, with Gold forming its initial corrective wave. The immediate downside target is 2617.40, potentially extending to 2575.75 if the downward trajectory persists. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line trending sharply downward below zero, suggesting further declines.

The hourly chart outlines a developing downward wave aiming for 2635.65. Should this target be met, a corrective rally to 2683.11 could occur before further declines resume towards 2617.17, marking the primary target in this bearish phase. The Stochastic oscillator indicates potential for short-term upside, with its signal line approaching the 80 level, suggesting a brief corrective uptick before continuing its descent.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Nov

USDJPY Hits 14-Week High Amid US Election Dynamics

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USDJPY pair has surged to a 14-week peak, touching 153.83 as demand for the US dollar strengthens with the unfolding US presidential election. This rally aligns with increasing support for Donald Trump, whose lead in critical states has fuelled investor optimism.

This week, US political developments are poised to dominate market attention, with the outcome still pending in several swing states.

In Japan, the recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting minutes indicate a consensus among board members to persist with interest rate hikes, aligning with their inflation and economic objectives. Despite this, there is no immediate expectation for a rate increase until at least January 2025, reflecting the prevailing global economic uncertainties and market volatility.

Currently, the Japanese yen is not favoured as a safe-haven asset, with the market focus sharply pivoting towards the US dollar.

Technical analysis of USDJPY

The USDJPY pair has completed a corrective phase to 151.28 and initiated the fifth wave of growth towards 155.38. A consolidation phase around 153.33 suggests the potential for an upward breakout, continuing the ascent towards 155.38. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows a solid upward momentum from below the zero level.

Following a full correction to 151.28, the pair found strong support and advanced to 153.33. The market is now consolidating at this level, and a continuation of the upward trend to 155.38 is anticipated. This view is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, positioned near 80, indicating sustained upward pressure.

Disclaimer

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05 Nov

EURUSD Stabilises as US Presidential Election Unfolds

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EURUSD remains poised around 1.0878 as markets brace for the outcome of the highly anticipated US presidential election. With the world watching, the direction of the major currency pair will hinge significantly on the election results, where a victory for Donald Trump is likely to bolster the USD, potentially leading to a notable increase. Conversely, a win for Kamala Harris could see the USD decline by an average of 1-2%.

The impending volatility is not solely due to the election but amplified by the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The Fed is anticipated to cut interest rates slightly by 25 basis points. Market participants are keenly awaiting any forward guidance from the Fed, particularly with expectations leaning towards another rate reduction in December.

While significant economic data releases are also expected, these pivotal events may overshadow their impact.

Technical analysis of EURUSD

The EURUSD market has completed a growth structure reaching 1.0913, considered part of a third growth wave targeting 1.0950. After this target is achieved, a retraction to 1.0860 is anticipated, potentially forming a broad consolidation range around this level. Technical indicators, such as the MACD, suggest an upward trajectory, reinforcing the possibility of reaching 1.0960 before a corrective pullback to 1.0860.

Support at 1.0872 has spurred the development of a growth impulse towards 1.0900, which is expected to be tested soon. Breaching this level could extend the growth wave towards 1.0950. The Stochastic oscillator supports this short-term forecast, indicating upward momentum with its signal line targeting the upper echelons around 80.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Nov

Currency Speculators continue to shed Euro bets for 5th week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (11,148 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (773 contracts) also coming through with a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-37,588 contracts), the EuroFX (-21,780 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-26,868 contracts), the British Pound (-8,220 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,844 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,464 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,344 contracts), Bitcoin (-224 contracts) and with the Australian Dollar (-163 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators continue to shed Euro bets for 5th week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is sharp decrease in bets for the Euro currency speculators. Large speculators have dropped their Euro positions for a fifth consecutive week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks through Tuesday.

The Euro spec positions have fallen by -122,002 net contracts in just these last five weeks. This weakness has brought the overall positioning from +71,698 contracts on September 24th to this week’s standing of -50,304 contracts and the lowest level for Euro bets since March 3rd of 2020, a span of 243 weeks.

Helping to dampen the Euro’s appeal is the recent rate reduction by the European Central Bank (ECB). Citing a decline in inflation, the ECB trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.50 percent to 3.26 percent on October 17th and believes the “disinflationary process is well on track“.

The Euro exchange rate versus the US Dollar had touched a yearly high in September at the 1.1249 exchange level. Since then, however, the Euro declined for four straight weeks and fell through the major support/resistance level of 1.10 and then through the 1.09 threshold as well. Currently, the Euro currency is trading right around the 1.0857 level with historical support sitting below at 1.08.

More Speculator positions:

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index speculator positions perked up a bit this week by +773 contracts and rose for a second straight week. The USD standing is in a small bullish position after falling into a bearish level on October 8th and 15th.

The Japanese yen speculator bets dropped sharply for a second straight week and have now fallen for five straight weeks overall. This has brought the yen positioning back into a bearish level after bets had been in a bullish standing for eleven consecutive weeks.

Canadian dollar speculator positions also continued to drop and fell for the fifth consecutive week. The CAD speculator bets have decreased by a total of -101,910 contracts in just these last five weeks and brings the current position (at a total of -167,499 contracts) to the fourth most bearish standing on record.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (96 percent) and the leads the currency markets this week. The British Pound (66 percent) and the Japanese Yen (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (8 percent), Bitcoin (11 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are .

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (65.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (69.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (63.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (78.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (32.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (12.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (24.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (95.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (95.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (48.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (43.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (49.4 percent)
Bitcoin (10.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (15.4 percent)

Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (48 percent) and the Brazilian Real (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (13 percent) and the British Pound (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-42 percent), Swiss Franc (-34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-33 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-0.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-41.0 percent)
EuroFX (-50.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-46.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-7.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-32.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-17.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-34.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-23.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-32.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (29.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-0.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (5.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (13.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-1.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (26.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (26.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-19.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-28.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.1	18.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.9	22.9	10.6
– Net Position:	1,684	-1,329	-355
– Gross Longs:	21,825	6,126	3,093
– Gross Shorts:	20,141	7,455	3,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	91.4	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-2.8	16.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -50,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	60.7	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	56.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-50,304	31,448	18,856
– Gross Longs:	159,313	401,671	73,780
– Gross Shorts:	209,617	370,223	54,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.5	54.1	-59.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 66,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,220 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.9	21.9	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	55.5	11.1
– Net Position:	66,356	-74,301	7,945
– Gross Longs:	132,636	48,596	32,508
– Gross Shorts:	66,280	122,897	24,563
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	31.8	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	2.2	-18.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -37,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	53.6	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	41.2	17.5
– Net Position:	-24,817	28,082	-3,265
– Gross Longs:	64,925	121,136	36,292
– Gross Shorts:	89,742	93,054	39,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	38.8	55.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.6	36.7	-44.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	77.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	24.4	23.5
– Net Position:	-33,998	41,676	-7,678
– Gross Longs:	7,092	60,942	10,855
– Gross Shorts:	41,090	19,266	18,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	67.4	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.2	39.0	-32.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -167,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -26,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -140,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	80.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.1	27.9	10.6
– Net Position:	-167,499	174,266	-6,767
– Gross Longs:	27,399	266,311	28,068
– Gross Shorts:	194,898	92,045	34,835
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.9	87.9	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.3	43.7	-34.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	31.4	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	52.0	11.0
– Net Position:	27,516	-37,858	10,342
– Gross Longs:	93,677	57,807	30,644
– Gross Shorts:	66,161	95,665	20,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.8	7.4	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.0	-41.6	5.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	48.0	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	41.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-2,167	3,607	-1,440
– Gross Longs:	26,077	27,850	3,672
– Gross Shorts:	28,244	24,243	5,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.7	62.2	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	7.1	-45.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	46.3	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	67.7	4.7
– Net Position:	35,045	-31,575	-3,470
– Gross Longs:	71,127	68,246	3,511
– Gross Shorts:	36,082	99,821	6,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	53.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-12.0	-12.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.2	48.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.5	40.8	5.7
– Net Position:	-4,269	4,392	-123
– Gross Longs:	24,784	28,361	3,205
– Gross Shorts:	29,053	23,969	3,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	53.3	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-26.2	-0.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.3	6.0	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.9	2.3	2.4
– Net Position:	-1,869	1,242	627
– Gross Longs:	28,156	2,019	1,441
– Gross Shorts:	30,025	777	814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	94.4	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	16.1	13.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Nov

AUDUSD holds near August lows: US dollar pressure remains strong

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair fell to 0.6566 on Friday, marking its lowest since early August. The US dollar continued to strengthen last night, bolstered by signs of resilience in the US economy. Additionally, investors hold significant expectations for Donald Trump’s success in the upcoming presidential election next week.

Meanwhile, an unexpected improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity provided noticeable support for the Aussie. Given that China is Australia’s key trade and economic partner, the Australian dollar is highly responsive to developments in China.

Annual inflation in Australia eased to 3.5% in Q3 but remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range of 2.0-3.0%. Producer prices rose more than expected in the third quarter, while retail sales declined in September. These mixed signals are keeping the Aussie under pressure.

Baseline expectations suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% at its meeting next week.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD market completed a wave of decline to 0.6536. Today, the market is forming a consolidation range above this level. An upward breakout would signal the development of a growth wave towards 0.6656, viewed as a correction to the previous downtrend. Once this correction is completed, we may see a new decline towards 0.6492. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero near the lows and preparing to turn upwards.

On the H1 chart, the AUD/USD market has formed a consolidation range around 0.6561, with a potential extension towards 0.6530. After this, we may see the beginning of an upward wave targeting 0.6655 as the first objective. This growth structure is expected to be part of a broader correction. Technically, this scenario is also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 20 mark and preparing to rise towards 80.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Oct

AUD/USD Continues Downward Spiral Amid Economic Concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar remains under significant pressure, with AUD/USD extending its downtrend mid-week to reach 0.6539, the lowest since August. The decline, which began on 1 October, has been relentless, with the pair experiencing little to no respite from its downward trajectory.

Recent data indicating that Australia’s annual inflation cooled to 2.8% in Q3 from 3.8% in Q2, falling just below the expected 2.9%, has contributed to the accelerated sell-off. Although this brings inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3%, the core inflation gauge closely monitored by the RBA remains elevated at 3.5% year-on-year in Q3. Given the persistent core inflation, the RBA has no immediate impetus to lower interest rates.

The central bank maintains that inflation needs to stabilise before considering monetary easing. With the RBA’s next meeting scheduled for next week, market consensus does not anticipate a change in the current interest rate of 4.35% per annum. Rate cuts are not expected until at least May 2025.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD is persisting in its downward wave, targeting 0.6533. If this level is reached, a corrective phase towards 0.6613 may follow, and the downward trend is expected to resume towards 0.6491. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, as its signal line is well below zero, indicating a continuation of the downward momentum.

On the hourly chart, AUD/USD has established a consolidation range around 0.6570, breaking downwards to continue towards 0.6533. Once this level is achieved, a corrective move to 0.6613 may begin, with an intermediate target at 0.6570. This potential upward correction is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 20 but poised to rise towards 80, suggesting a brief respite from the selling pressure.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Oct

GBPUSD could be in for mid-week “sneaky surprise”

By ForexTime

GBPUSD’s forecasted volatility jumps 24% over past week

UK government set to issue most debt since 2020

US Treasury refunding announcement in focus

Friday’s US NFP triggered GBPUSD moves of ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 0.6% over past year

Bloomberg FX model: GBPUSD has 73% of trading within1.2836 – 1.3126 this week

Here’s something GBPUSD traders may not be aware of this week.

The UK and US governments are due to make twin announcements on Wednesday, October 30th that could translate into big moves for this FX pair.

Leading up to these announcements, the forecasted volatility for GBPUSD a.k.a “cable” has already risen by 24%, even though the period also covers the upcoming US presidential elections (but that’s a story for a not-too-distant article).

gbpusd w1

1) UK Autumn Budget 2024

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the new Labour government’s first annual budget on Wednesday at 12:30pm UK time.

Reeves is expected to announce a package of tax hikes and increased borrowing plans that will push UK debt sales to £293 billion – the highest since the response to Covid-19.

Investors will also keep an eye on any major updates on the country’s finances and the government’s plan for public spending.

This event will likely influence sentiment towards, not just the UK economy in the medium to longer term, but also GBPUSD in the immediate aftermath

The bigger picture…

Well, much attention will be on the debt sales worth the forecasted £293 billion.

This figure sets the market’s expectations for this pivotal announcement.

What does this mean?

Large debt sales may fuel concerns about inflation if they are seen as a sign of increased government spending.

High inflation expectations could even prevent the Bank of England from cutting rates as the expected pace.

Slower-than-expected BOE rate cuts could then lead to Sterling strength.

At the time of writing, traders have priced in a 25-basis point BoE cut in November with the probability of another 25 basis point cut by December at 60%.

How might this impact the GBPUSD?

The GBPUSD could jump if total debt sales surpass the £293 billion estimate as investors push back bets around faster BoE rate cuts.

Should total UK government debt sales announced below the $293 billion figure, this may weaken the GBPUSD as BoE rate cut expectations remain intact.

2) US Treasury quarterly refunding

On the other side of the Atlantic, the dollar could be rocked by heavy hitting reports on Wednesday including the Q3 GDP and ADP employment data.

The US economy is expected to remain resilient, with a forecasted 3% growth in Q3 along with 110,000 jobs added in October, according to the Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP).

But there’s another event you may not spot on most economic calendars that could serve a “sneaky surprise” for broader markets as well.

The US Treasury quarterly refunding, which is perhaps the focus of most bond traders, could have a major impact on the USD-side of GBPUSD on Wednesday.

The bigger picture…

This is where the US government announces how much new debt needs to be sold to markets to keep financing its budget for the quarter.

This event has sparked some action in the bond markets in the past, influencing the US dollar as result.

According to Bloomberg, bond dealers widely expect that the refunding auctions will total $125 billion for the third straight quarter.

How might this impact the GBPUSD?

As an oversimplification:

Falling Bond Prices –> Rising Yields –> Stronger Dollar (and vice versa)

With the above logic in mind …

A higher-than-$125 billion figure suggests that the US Treasury plans to sell more bonds to markets.
If this weakens Treasury prices, yields could push higher, boosting the USD. A stronger USD is seen dragging the GBPUSD lower.

A lower-than- $125 billion figure may boost bond prices, pulling yields lower and weakening the USD. Dollar weakness could see the GBPUSD jump.

But wait, there’s more!

3) US October nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report

Friday’s US jobs report, due at 12:30PM GMT on November 1st, will then come at the tail end of a busy and potentially volatile trading week for the GBPUSD.

This will be the final jobs report before the US election and something that could shape expectations around what action the Fed takes for the rest of 2024.

The US economy is expected to have created 110,000 jobs in October, a major drop from the 254,000 jobs seen in the previous month.

The also crucial unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Ultimately, a disappointing report may fuel speculation around Fed rate cuts, despite potential distortions in the NFP data from the effects of recent Hurricanes and industrial strikes.

Traders are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut by November with the odds of another 25 basis point rate cut by December at 70%.

Over the past year, the US NFP report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.5% or declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release for GBPUSD.

4) Technical forces

This currency pair nicknamed “cable” has shed almost 3% month-to-date, pressured by a dovish Bank of England (BoE) and recent dollar rebound.

Although prices are bearish on the daily charts, the upcoming events could determine whether GBPUSD enters the new month above or below the psychological 1.30 level.

A solid daily close below the 100-day SMA may open the doors toward the 200-day SMA at 1.2800.

Should the 100-day SMA prove to be reliable support, this may send prices toward 1.3070 and the 50-day SMA at 1.3140.

GBPUSD--

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2836 – 1.3126 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Oct

EUR/USD Weakens Amid Global Economic Uncertainty and Strong US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair began the week around 1.0789, reflecting heightened global economic uncertainties and a strong inclination towards safe-haven assets. The appeal of the US dollar is bolstered by rising US government bond yields and positive consumer confidence indicators from the University of Michigan, which reported a rise to 70.5 points in October, surpassing expectations.

The preference for the US dollar as a safe haven was notably evident over the weekend during Japan’s general election, underscoring the currency’s reliability in times of political and economic uncertainty.

Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair faces a critical week with upcoming releases of October’s labor market data from the US. These figures are crucial as they could influence the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate adjustments. Current market expectations lean towards two rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points. However, upcoming employment data could potentially recalibrate these expectations, impacting the EUR/USD trajectory.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD

H4 Chart Analysis: The EUR/USD has recently completed an upward wave reaching towards 1.0838 and is now undergoing a correction towards 1.0780. Should this correction complete, anticipation for a new growth wave towards 1.0850 will increase, potentially leading to the formation of a consolidation range around this level. A break above this range could extend the upward momentum towards 1.0944. The MACD indicator supports this potential, with its signal line positioned below zero but pointing upwards, suggesting an impending positive shift in momentum.

H1 Chart Analysis: On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD has stretched a growth structure to 1.0838 and is currently correcting towards 1.0780. Once this correction target is met, a new upward movement is expected to commence towards 1.0815, with potential to continue towards 1.0850. This forecast is backed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is rising from above 20 towards 80, indicating the likelihood of continued upward price action.

Disclaimer

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