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EUR/USD significantly rises as risks diminish

EUR/USD climbed to 1.0453 on Friday, reaching a two-week high and maintaining stability.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD movement

The euro’s gains accelerated after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to review retaliatory duties without immediately imposing new tariffs. This decision eased investor concerns, reducing fears of an aggressive US response that could have added to inflationary pressures. With no immediate trade retaliations, markets view inflation risks as stabilising, reducing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions appear to be easing, lowering the risk premium in the currency market and further supporting EUR/USD.

However, doubts remain regarding the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). While the Fed continues to be cautious, showing little urgency to cut interest rates, the ECB is actively considering rate cuts. This policy mismatch is expected to weigh on the euro in the long term.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD extended its growth wave towards 1.0466 before forming a consolidation range below this level. The pair has now broken downward from this range, opening the potential for a decline towards 1.0372. Once this target is reached, a corrective move towards 1.0416 is likely. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line at high levels, suggesting an imminent pullback to lower lows.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD completed its growth wave to 1.0466 and is now consolidating in a narrow range. A downward breakout is expected, initially targeting 1.0420, followed by a potential correction towards 1.0444. In the longer term, another downward wave will likely develop, targeting 1.0394 and extending towards 1.0372. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below 50 and trending towards 20, indicating growing downside pressure.

Conclusion

While EUR/USD has gained on reduced trade war risks and stabilising inflation fears, the pair is now facing a short-term correction. The monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB remains a key factor that could limit further upside for the euro. Technically, a pullback towards 1.0372 is likely in the short term, with potential corrective bounces towards 1.0416 and 1.0444 before the next downward wave. Market participants will continue monitoring US trade policy updates and Fed rate expectations for further direction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Feb

The pound’s rally stalls as investors await fresh economic data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD is consolidating around 1.2447 on Wednesday as traders hold back, awaiting key UK economic data releases later this week.

Key factors influencing GBP/USD

Earlier this week, the British pound faced pressure after Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann shifted to a more dovish stance. She stated that weak domestic demand reduces inflation risks, marking a notable change from her previously hawkish position.

Mann now believes consumer spending is slowing, limiting businesses’ ability to raise prices, and contributing to a faster-than-expected decline in inflationary pressures.

The BoE expects inflation to rise to 3.7% by the end of 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024. Meanwhile, UK GDP growth forecasts have been lowered to 0.75% for 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 1.5%.

Investors are now awaiting key UK macroeconomic data, including:

December GDP estimate

Preliminary Q4 2024 economic growth data

End-of-year industrial production figures

Externally, the pound is also under pressure from a stronger US dollar. However, compared to other major currencies, GBP remains relatively stable.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD declined to 1.2332, followed by a correction to 1.2458. After reaching this level, a new downside wave is expected towards 1.2279. A narrow consolidation range is likely to form around this level. If the price breaks below this range, the next targets will be 1.2100 and 1.2020, signalling a continued bearish trend. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing downward, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD completed a correction to 1.2458. The market is now expected to resume its downward movement towards 1.2279. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and trending sharply downwards towards 20, suggesting increasing bearish momentum.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is in a consolidation phase, with market participants awaiting key UK economic data. Weakening domestic demand and shifting expectations regarding the Bank of England’s (BOE) policy are weighing on the pound, while external pressure from a stronger USD adds to its downside risks. Technically, further declines are expected towards 1.2279, with the potential for deeper losses to 1.2100 and 1.2020 if the economic data disappoints. Market focus remains on upcoming UK macroeconomic releases, which will determine the next significant move for GBP/USD.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Feb

Yen’s rally stalls but may resume soon

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY is consolidating near 151.96 after a temporary pause in the yen’s recent strength.

Key market factors

At the beginning of the week, the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar as the greenback reacted to fresh US trade tariffs.

US President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports, with no exemptions for partner countries. This decision has triggered fears of a global trade war, which could, in turn, limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates further.

Despite this, the yen appreciated by 2% against the USD last week, driven by increasing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue its monetary tightening cycle.

BoJ policymaker Naoki Tamura reinforced this view last Thursday by suggesting that the central bank should move towards an interest rate of at least 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025. Recent Japanese economic data supports this hawkish stance, with rising wages and household spending providing a solid foundation for further rate hikes.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a consolidation range around 151.90 after a downward move. A break below this range is expected, targeting 148.80, with a potential continuation to 148.38. This level serves as a local target. Once the wave completes, a corrective move towards 151.90 is possible before the broader downtrend resumes, aiming for 145.50. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below zero and sharply downwards, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market is developing a downward wave towards 148.40, with consolidation around 151.90. A downside breakout would confirm the continuation of the second phase of the decline. After reaching 148.40, a corrective move back to 151.90 could materialise. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 80 and sharply downward, indicating bearish pressure.

Conclusion

The Japanese yen’s rally has paused, but further gains remain likely, supported by expectations of continued BoJ tightening. Technical indicators suggest that USD/JPY may break lower towards 148.40, with further downside potential towards 145.50. The yen’s trajectory will depend on BoJ policy signals and further developments in US trade policy, particularly how global markets respond to Trump’s tariffs.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Feb

Japanese Yen Speculators push yen bets into new bullish position

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (38,736 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (19,727 contracts), the British Pound (10,349 contracts), the EuroFX (7,990 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,038 contracts), the Swiss Franc (742 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (339 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-12,843 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-3,478 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,059 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-379 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators push yen bets into new bullish position

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the renewal in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions gained for a third consecutive week this week and has risen by a total of +48,179 contracts over these past three weeks.

This renewed sentiment for the yen has pushed the net position (currently at +18,768 contracts) to the most positive level in the past eight weeks. The yen speculator bets had recently spent four weeks in bullish territory in December before dropping back into negative territory in January.

The yen has had extremely bearish speculator positioning over the past four years (basically since March of 2021) and very often had over -100,000 net speculator weekly contracts as policy divergences between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan caused the yen exchange rate to drop to multi-decade lows versus the American currency.

The BOJ recently raised their interest rate by 25 basis points in January from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent as inflation is poised to pickup, according to the BOJ. This increase moved the rate to the highest level since 2008, underscoring the rare move.

The yen exchange rate, overall, has continued to trend near the bottom of its range from the past few years but has managed to gain versus the US Dollar for the past four weeks in a row. The USDJPY currency pair trades at 151.42 to end the week after hitting support right below 159.00 in late-January. Since then, the USDJPY has seen yen strength with a break below support at 155.00 and currently trades around a major support/resistance level around 152.00 that could determine the short-term direction of the pair.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (81 percent) and the Bitcoin (68 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (52 percent), US Dollar Index (37 percent) and the Mexican Peso (35 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent), the Swiss Franc (15 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (36.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.1 percent)
EuroFX (6.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (31.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (81.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (25.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (35.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (31.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.6 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (76.7 percent)

Brazilian Real & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (20 percent) and the Bitcoin (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Japanese Yen (7 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-14 percent), Australian Dollar (-5 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (16.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (17.7 percent)
EuroFX (3.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-19.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (6.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-28.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-5.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-5.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.7 percent)
Bitcoin (20.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (21.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.5	24.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	64.3	6.3
– Net Position:	14,539	-15,914	1,375
– Gross Longs:	25,203	9,630	3,885
– Gross Shorts:	10,664	25,544	2,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	62.7	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-15.0	-5.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -58,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,990 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	56.5	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	50.6	8.5
– Net Position:	-58,614	36,471	22,143
– Gross Longs:	162,554	348,354	74,337
– Gross Shorts:	221,168	311,883	52,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	93.6	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-6.4	19.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,672 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	54.5	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	42.3	17.9
– Net Position:	-11,323	25,029	-13,706
– Gross Longs:	65,442	111,619	22,951
– Gross Shorts:	76,765	86,590	36,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	71.3	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.1	-15.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	30.4	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	43.6	16.1
– Net Position:	18,768	-30,683	11,915
– Gross Longs:	104,684	70,418	49,277
– Gross Shorts:	85,916	101,101	37,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.1	17.2	92.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-12.6	43.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	85.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.5	29.2	21.9
– Net Position:	-42,258	55,303	-13,045
– Gross Longs:	5,242	83,873	8,424
– Gross Shorts:	47,500	28,570	21,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	89.6	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	14.5	21.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -160,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	84.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.1	35.3	10.4
– Net Position:	-160,444	170,842	-10,398
– Gross Longs:	20,421	293,323	25,707
– Gross Shorts:	180,865	122,481	36,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	86.4	12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-7.2	3.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -75,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	68.1	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	27.3	15.0
– Net Position:	-75,309	83,501	-8,192
– Gross Longs:	35,330	139,494	22,568
– Gross Shorts:	110,639	55,993	30,760
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	79.7	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	3.2	4.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -49,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	85.7	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.4	24.2	7.2
– Net Position:	-49,090	51,675	-2,585
– Gross Longs:	8,327	71,989	3,459
– Gross Shorts:	57,417	20,314	6,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	93.8	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	2.8	8.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,224 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	54.0	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	60.6	4.0
– Net Position:	12,262	-9,518	-2,744
– Gross Longs:	61,459	78,564	3,020
– Gross Shorts:	49,197	88,082	5,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	69.3	7.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	3.2	1.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	36.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.4	38.1	4.3
– Net Position:	242	-723	481
– Gross Longs:	33,402	21,671	3,007
– Gross Shorts:	33,160	22,394	2,526
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	48.5	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-21.3	10.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.8	4.7	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.4	7.5	3.6
– Net Position:	786	-918	132
– Gross Longs:	27,570	1,544	1,329
– Gross Shorts:	26,784	2,462	1,197
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	40.5	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.0	-19.3	-10.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Feb

Australian Dollar Recovers, But Risks Remain High

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair rebounded to 0.6199 on Tuesday, recovering some losses. Earlier in the week, the Australian dollar tested multi-year lows as investors distanced themselves from riskier assets amid concerns over US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

A reprieve came as US President Donald Trump delayed the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico for one month while negotiating with both countries. This pause improved sentiment for risk currencies, including the Australian dollar.

Key factors influencing AUD/USD

Despite this temporary relief, uncertainty remains, particularly regarding China, Australia’s largest trading partner. The newly announced US tariffs on Chinese goods take effect today, which could have significant economic consequences. Any updates related to China directly impact Australia’s economy and currency movements.

Adding to the uncertainty, Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. While China is keen to avoid escalating trade tensions, the US administration will likely use the situation strategically to its advantage. The outcome of these discussions could shape risk sentiment in global markets.

On the domestic front, Australia’s trade balance data for December is scheduled for release on Thursday. This report will provide insights into the health of Australia’s export-driven economy and could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy stance.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart, AUD/USD previously formed a downside wave to 0.6088, followed by a correction to 0.6233. Today, the market is expected to initiate another downward wave towards 0.6077. A potential corrective move back to 0.6230 may follow, forming a consolidation range. If the pair breaks upwards from this range, another correction towards 0.6290 is possible. However, if it breaks downwards, the downward wave to 0.6077 will likely continue. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line positioned above the zero mark but pointing sharply downwards, indicating strong bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, AUD/USD established a consolidation range near 0.6160 before breaking upwards to complete a correction at 0.6230. The next move is expected to be a new downward wave targeting 0.6150. If this level is breached, the pair could extend losses towards 0.6077. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish outlook, with its signal line below 80 and trending downwards towards 20, indicating growing downside pressure.

Conclusion

The Australian dollar has staged a modest recovery, but risks remain elevated due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding Australia’s economic outlook. While short-term technical indicators suggest the potential for further downside, the key levels to watch are 0.6150 and 0.6077. Market participants will closely monitor Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping and Australia’s trade balance data for further directional cues.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Feb

Canadian dollar under pressure as US tariffs drive USD/CAD to a 22-year high

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/CAD pair surged above 1.4760 on Monday, reaching its highest level since April 2003. This sharp rise came in response to the US government’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, significantly impacting the Loonie.

Key factors driving USD/CAD

The White House framed the tariffs as part of a broader policy to combat illegal immigration and illicit trade. However, the economic repercussions are immediate, particularly for Canada’s commodity-driven economy.

A separate 10% tariff has been applied to Canadian energy exports, a somewhat lower rate than initially expected. Similar tariffs were also introduced for Mexico, while Chinese goods now face a 10% import duty. In response, all affected countries have signalled plans for retaliatory measures.

For Canada, the new trade barriers pose a significant threat. With the economy heavily reliant on exports, reduced foreign demand could lower foreign currency inflows and further weaken the CAD.

Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming Canadian GDP data. December’s figures are expected to show 0.2% growth, translating to an annual expansion of 1.4%, aligning with the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) projections.

The BoC recently cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% per annum and announced an end to its quantitative easing programme. Additionally, the central bank has indicated plans to resume asset purchases in March, further weighing on the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/CAD broke through 1.4591 and continues its upward wave. With this breakout, the path towards 1.4808 is now open, making it the next local target. After reaching this level, a correction towards 1.4591 is possible before a renewed growth wave targets 1.4919. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero and pointing sharply upwards, confirming bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair has extended its upward structure to 1.4742 and is now consolidating around this level. A breakout from the consolidation range to the upside would signal a move towards 1.4808. However, if the pair breaks downwards, a correction to 1.4591 is possible before another attempt at the 1.4808 level. The Stochastic oscillator indicates a potential short-term pullback, with its signal line above 80 and preparing to decline towards 20.

Conclusion

The Canadian dollar remains under significant pressure as US trade tariffs drive uncertainty over future export demand. While technical indicators suggest further upside for USD/CAD towards 1.4808, a corrective move towards 1.4591 is also possible before another wave of growth. The market’s next key focus will be Canadian GDP data and any further developments on trade retaliation from affected countries, both of which could impact the pair’s trajectory.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Feb

US Dollar Speculator bets continue to shine vs major currencies

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Japanese Yen & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (13,714 contracts), the Mexican Peso (6,768 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (4,192 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (3,186 contracts) and with Bitcoin (426 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-13,415 contracts), the EuroFX (-4,118 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-4,363 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,163 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-672 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-535 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Speculator bets continue to shine vs major currencies

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is current positioning for the US Dollar against the major currencies. Despite a small dip in the US Dollar Index positioning this week, the other major currencies are overwhelmingly in negative or bearish net positions versus the US Dollar. All major currency positions in the COT markets are in direct relation to the US Dollar and, currently, eight out of the nine foreign currency levels are in bearish territory.

The most bearish position at the moment is the Canadian dollar at a total of -147,601 contracts. The CAD position has been over the -100,000 contract threshold for sixteen straight weeks and in twenty-eight out of the past thirty-four weeks. Overall, the CAD positioning has been in a continuous bearish level for seventy-eight straight weeks. The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the Dollar has been falling sharply is currently at the lowest level since March of 2020 at the 0.6905 price.

The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, Brazilian real and the Euro positions are all between -38,000 and -71,000 net speculator contracts this week. All of these currencies are in extreme bearish readings in the speculator strength scores which compares their current level to the past three years. The exchange rates for these currencies have all been in multi-year low-points as well over the past month except for the Swiss franc which has been trading around its 200-week moving average and the lowest level since May 2024.

The British pound sterling is not quite in an extreme bearish level but does remain in an overall bearish net standing at -21,672 contracts. The GBP exchange rate versus the Dollar is right under the 1.2400 threshold currently and recently touched the lowest level since 2023 near the 1.2100 exchange.

The Japanese yen which has seen its exchange rate at multi-decade lows for the past couple of years but is faring better than most of the other major currencies in speculator positioning. The JPY speculator bets are just at -959 contracts this week. The exchange rate does remain near the bottom of the range of the multi-decade lows but the speculator sentiment has come off the extremely negative levels from the past couple of years and has been helped out by the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary move of an interest rate increase.

The only major currency with a bullish speculator position this week versus the Dollar is the Mexican peso. The peso has been the one currency with strong speculator positions over the past few years with positive or bullish levels dating back to March of 2023. Last week, on January 21st, the position dipped into a small bearish level but bounced back this week into a small bullish standing. The exchange rate for the peso has been on the decline from last summer and has fallen to the lowest levels since 2022 at the 0.4801 exchange rate price.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Japanese Yen

On the downside, the EuroFX (3 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (9 percent), the Swiss Franc (14 percent) and the Brazilian Real (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (36.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (37.5 percent)
EuroFX (3.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (26.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (32.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (67.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (25.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (25.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (31.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (28.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (19.7 percent)
Bitcoin (76.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (67.4 percent)

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (22 percent) and the US Dollar Index (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (15 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-20 percent), Brazilian Real (-17 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (17.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (37.5 percent)
EuroFX (-0.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-19.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-15.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-16.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-43.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-13.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-56.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-5.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-27.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.8 percent)
Bitcoin (21.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.9	25.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	62.4	7.3
– Net Position:	14,200	-15,106	906
– Gross Longs:	25,372	10,484	3,888
– Gross Shorts:	11,172	25,590	2,982
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	64.3	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-15.3	-8.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	57.3	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	50.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-66,604	41,595	25,009
– Gross Longs:	153,660	354,830	75,982
– Gross Shorts:	220,264	313,235	50,973
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.4	95.4	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-2.2	16.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	58.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	39.7	18.7
– Net Position:	-21,672	39,354	-17,682
– Gross Longs:	59,331	121,421	21,081
– Gross Shorts:	81,003	82,067	38,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	77.0	25.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	22.1	-25.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	31.7	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	34.8	16.8
– Net Position:	-959	-6,737	7,696
– Gross Longs:	96,809	68,683	44,173
– Gross Shorts:	97,768	75,420	36,477
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.2	26.0	82.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-1.3	25.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -43,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	85.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.3	28.8	21.5
– Net Position:	-43,000	55,450	-12,450
– Gross Longs:	4,996	83,473	8,491
– Gross Shorts:	47,996	28,023	20,941
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	89.9	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.0	24.5	26.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -147,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	83.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	34.2	12.6
– Net Position:	-147,601	162,970	-15,369
– Gross Longs:	21,219	276,259	26,467
– Gross Shorts:	168,820	113,289	41,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	83.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-13.4	-5.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -71,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	67.5	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.2	26.3	16.2
– Net Position:	-71,831	79,001	-7,170
– Gross Longs:	32,196	129,574	23,866
– Gross Shorts:	104,027	50,573	31,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.3	77.0	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	4.7	6.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	86.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.4	27.2	6.9
– Net Position:	-47,031	49,651	-2,620
– Gross Longs:	7,898	72,468	3,201
– Gross Shorts:	54,929	22,817	5,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.9	91.5	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	3.8	15.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 5,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	61.0	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	63.2	4.4
– Net Position:	5,224	-3,023	-2,201
– Gross Longs:	46,601	84,388	3,854
– Gross Shorts:	41,377	87,411	6,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	72.6	10.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.8	0.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	71.3	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.4	23.2	3.1
– Net Position:	-38,494	38,407	87
– Gross Longs:	19,372	56,952	2,529
– Gross Shorts:	57,866	18,545	2,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	85.2	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	15.1	8.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.3	4.3	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.9	8.6	3.9
– Net Position:	1,165	-1,473	308
– Gross Longs:	28,593	1,482	1,661
– Gross Shorts:	27,428	2,955	1,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	26.7	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.7	-24.7	-0.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Jan

EUR/USD Stable as the Market Absorbs Fed Decision and Awaits ECB Meeting

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating around 1.0426 on Thursday as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and shift their focus to the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.

Key market influences

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate steady at 4.5% per annum. In its commentary, the central bank reaffirmed its commitment to reducing its balance sheet at a pace of 25 billion USD per month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation does not necessarily need to fall to 2% before considering rate cuts. He also supported banks’ provision of crypto services, a move that signals openness to financial innovation.

Notably, Powell indicated that the Fed is in no rush to lower interest rates. The central bank monitors stock market valuations closely, expressing concerns that some assets may be significantly overvalued. Interestingly, Powell avoided commenting on US President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for immediate rate cuts.

Earlier reports suggested that Trump may push for a policy allowing US presidents to have a say in setting interest rates. While the Fed remains independent for now, the issue could resurface in political discussions.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD moved downward to 1.0382, forming a corrective wave towards 1.0437. After completing this correction, the pair is likely to resume its decline, with an initial target at 1.0345. A brief correction to 1.0437 may follow before the downtrend extends towards 1.0050. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned above zero but trending downwards, indicating bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair consolidated around 1.0437 before breaking lower to reach a local target at 1.0382. A corrective move towards 1.0437 is now likely before the pair resumes its decline towards 1.0345, with a potential continuation to 1.0160. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 but pointing downward towards 20, signalling the likelihood of further losses.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains stable following the Fed’s policy announcement, with attention shifting to the ECB’s upcoming meeting. The Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts supports the USD, while uncertainty surrounding Trump’s potential influence over monetary policy adds another layer of complexity. Technical indicators point to further downside potential for EUR/USD, with key targets at 1.0345 and 1.0160. The next major moves depend on the ECB’s policy outlook and broader market sentiment.

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28 Jan

Australian Dollar Declines as External Pressures and Rising Risks Weigh

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair fell to 0.6257 on Tuesday, marking its second consecutive session of losses. The Australian dollar remains under pressure due to external factors, including a strengthening US dollar and growing global risks.

Key drivers behind the AUD decline

The US dollar has gained strength following renewed threats from US President Donald Trump to impose trade duties. Trump announced plans to levy tariffs on imported chips, pharmaceutical products, and raw materials such as aluminium, copper, and steel, aiming to stimulate domestic production. These developments have heightened market uncertainty and weighed on risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar.

In addition, global markets are jittery due to a sharp sell-off in the US stock market. The sell-off was driven by concerns over the open-source AI model DeepSeek which poses a potential challenge to the dominance of US companies in the artificial intelligence sector. This risk-off sentiment has further pressured the aussie.

On the domestic front, Australia reported an improvement in business activity metrics for December. However, the focus is now on the upcoming inflation data, which will provide critical insights ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) February meeting to review interest rate policy.

AUD/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, AUD/USD has executed a downward wave to 0.6245. A correction towards 0.6290 is expected today. Subsequently, another downward wave targeting 0.6250 may develop, with the potential for a consolidation range forming around this level. If the pair breaks upwards from the consolidation, a further correction towards 0.6290 is possible. Conversely, a downward breakout would open the potential for a deeper decline to 0.6190, which serves as a local target. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above the zero mark but pointing decisively downwards, indicating continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, AUD/USD formed a consolidation range around 0.6290 before breaking downwards to 0.6245. The market is now consolidating at the current lows. An upward breakout could lead to a correction back to 0.6290 (as a test from below). However, a downward breakout would signal a continuation of the decline towards 0.6204, with the trend potentially extending to 0.6190. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below the 20 mark but pointing upwards towards 80, suggesting a possible short-term correction before further declines.

Conclusion

The Australian dollar remains under pressure due to external uncertainties, including US trade policy developments and global risk aversion. While technical analysis suggests potential for a short-term correction, the broader trend remains bearish, with targets at 0.6204 and 0.6190. Upcoming Australian inflation data will play a key role in determining the currency’s near-term trajectory, particularly as the RBA’s February policy meeting approaches.

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27 Jan

The Mexican peso hit a one-month-high. Silver price under pressure from weak data from China and Trump’s tariff policy

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.32% on Friday (+2.57% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.29% (week-to-date +1.77%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.58% (week-to-date +1.45%). The stock market traded quietly on Friday, helped by relative stability in the bond market, which has driven much of the activity on Wall Street of late. When worries about inflation and rising US government debt intensified, Treasury yields rose and helped push stock prices lower. When fears subside, such as after last week’s encouraging inflation data, yields fall and help stocks rise.

Earnings season is in full swing, with companies reporting Q4 results. Texas Instruments closed down more than 7% on Friday, topping the chipmaker’s list after estimating weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings per share. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, analysts estimate S&P 500 earnings growth of 7.5% y/y in Q4, the second-highest preseason projection in three years.

Canadian dollar growth continues to be held back by ongoing tariff threats from the US, including a proposed 25% tariff hike on Canadian imports effective February 1, which could put further pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week. Additionally, crude oil prices, a key driver for commodity-linked longs, extended their decline as Trump threatened tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico, raising concerns about global economic growth and oil demand.

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) rose to 20.2 per US dollar, hitting a 1-month-high, driven by easing tariff fears amid a lack of immediate tariff action from US President Trump that had previously driven the currency to three-year lows. The country’s economic activity grew at an annualized rate of 0.5% in November, down from an upwardly revised 0.8% in October and below estimates of 0.6%, though it marked the fifth straight month of growth.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.08% (week-to-date +2.36%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.44% (week-to-date +2.66%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.07% (week-to-date +0.46%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.73% (week-to-date -0.03%). The French Index marked its ninth consecutive session of gains and remains at its highest level in more than seven months. Companies such as Ryanair, ASML, LVMH, Shell and Roche are all due to report last quarter’s results this week.

WTI crude prices fell to $74 a barrel on Monday, recording the first weekly drop this year, as President Donald Trump stoked trade concerns and demanded OPEC+ cut oil prices. He also warned of sanctions on Russia if it doesn’t strike a deal to end the war in Ukraine. However, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have yet to respond in any way to Trump’s call, with OPEC+ delegates instead pointing to a plan to increase production from April.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell by 1% on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session as the dollar recovered after US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia renewed fears of a broader trade conflict. Trump’s warning came after Colombia blocked two US military planes carrying deported migrants as part of a crackdown on illegal immigration. Market sentiment was also worsened by data showing that manufacturing activity in China, the world’s biggest silver consumer, unexpectedly contracted and growth in the services sector slowed sharply.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 3.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.59%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.32%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.19%.

The New Zealand dollar slid to $0.568 on Monday, retreating from a five-week high, as traders reacted to weak PMI data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. China’s manufacturing output contracted for the first time since last September, the sharpest decline in five months, while services growth slowed sharply from a nine-month high. Domestically, softer Q4 2024 inflation data in New Zealand reinforced expectations of further rate cuts. Swap markets now estimate a 90% probability of a 50bp rate cut next month, with the RBNZ expected to cut rates by 100bp in 2025.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,101.24 −17.47 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,424.25 −140.82 (−0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 21,394.93 −16.60 (−0.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,502.35 −62.85 (−0.73%)

USD Index 107.47 +0.02 (+0.02%)

News feed for: 2025.01.27

China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 10:10 (GMT+2);
German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 23:25 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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