Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 4

EUR/USD Updates Four-Year High: Everything Works Against the US Dollar

EUR/USD reached 1.2000 on Wednesday after rising to 1.2082 the previous evening, marking a strong four-day rally. The pressure on the US dollar has intensified following comments from US President Donald Trump. He stated that he was not concerned about the weakening of the dollar, viewing its fall as moderate. The market interpreted this as a signal that the administration might be willing to tolerate a weaker dollar to enhance export competitiveness.

An additional blow to the dollar came from rising political uncertainty in Washington, with Trump making fresh statements about Greenland and continuing to criticise the US Federal Reserve’s independence.

Further compounding the dollar’s decline is growing speculation about a potential joint US-Japan currency intervention to support the yen, which has boosted demand for JPY.

Investors’ focus is on the Federal Reserve’s decision, due later tonight. The Fed is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate, but much attention is on potential signals regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Current expectations suggest two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed an upward wave towards 1.2080. A breakout above this resistance level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend. For now, the pair is in a corrective phase, with support around 1.1935. The correction is confirmed by the MACD indicator, which shows the histogram and signal line above zero and forming a downward wave. After the correction, the upward trend may resume towards 1.2100 and potentially 1.2200, though corrections could occur during the rise.

On the H1 chart, after testing resistance, EUR/USD is forming a correction. A rebound from support at 1.1935 would signal a continuation of the bullish wave. The Stochastic indicator’s signal lines are approaching the 20 level, suggesting that the correction may continue before resuming the upward trend. The next target for growth could be 1.2100.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair continues to show bullish momentum, supported by a weaker US dollar and rising geopolitical tensions. The ongoing correction might offer buying opportunities, with further growth likely towards 1.2100 and 1.2200, depending on the Fed’s upcoming decision and global market dynamics.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Jan

USD/JPY on Pause: Yen Slows After Sharp Rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY settled at 154.29 on Tuesday, with the yen pausing its rally after a notable surge of nearly 3.2% in the previous two sessions. This move was driven by growing concerns about a possible coordinated currency intervention between Japan and the US.

The market was boosted by news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had requested USD/JPY levels from dealers on Friday. At the same time, Japanese officials confirmed that they were in close communication with the US on currency policy and potential market actions.

However, Bank of Japan (BoJ) data suggested that the sharp yen appreciation on Friday was unlikely to be due to direct intervention. This speculation intensified the market’s reaction and speculative positioning.

The yen continued to receive support from the broader weakness of the US dollar, driven by rising geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, as well as expectations that US President Donald Trump might replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell with a softer candidate, further pressuring the US currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a correction wave following the previous decline. A continuation of the growth wave to the 155.00 level is possible today. After this rise, a rebound from the resistance level is expected, with the first target for a further decline at 153.00, followed by 152.00. This scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as the histogram is below zero and rising, with the signal line likely to cross the histogram and turn upwards soon.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is testing the 153.80 mark and forming a growth wave. If the price tests the 155.00 level and rebounds, further declines could be expected, with the first support at 153.00 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this, as its signal lines continue to decline towards the 50.0 level. A break of this level would signal a continuation of the downward trend.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has paused its rapid ascent amid speculation of potential currency intervention. Despite a weaker US dollar and geopolitical risks, the yen’s recent strength is being tested. Technically, while the immediate outlook points to a possible short-term rise to 155.00, a rebound and subsequent decline towards 153.00 could be on the horizon, depending on how market sentiment evolves.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Jan

Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to 58-Week High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,835 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (3,595 contracts), the British Pound (3,290 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (465 contracts), the Japanese Yen (335 contracts), Bitcoin (229 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (185 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-20,961 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,688 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-759 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-233 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the Currency Market Speculator Positions this week were the AUD, MXN, Euro & Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar speculative bets lead off the highlights this week as the AUD bets rose for an eighth consecutive week. Over this eight-week span, the Aussie Dollar speculative net position has improved by over 70,000 contracts. Despite that improvement, the Australian Dollar net position remains in bearish territory at -14,011 net positions at this time. This is actually the best standing for the Australian dollar speculative bets since all the way back to December of 2024, a span of 58 consecutive weeks that this currency has been in a bearish net position. The Australian Dollar, in the currency markets, has been on the rise and jumped this week by over 3%. It is now up by over 12% since January of 2025. Currently trading around 0.6887, the AUD is at its highest level since September of 2024 and with further upside momentum, we could see a challenge of the 0.70 significant psychological level soon.

Coming up next is the Mexican Peso, which saw speculator bets rise this week for the fourth time in the past five weeks, and for the tenth time over the past 14 weeks. The Peso has been in an overall bullish position for approximately one year now, dating back to January 21st of 2025. Peso positions have been gaining steadily over the past 52 weeks and have now been above the +100,000 net contract level for five consecutive weeks and for six out of the last seven weeks, indicating the strong sentiment for the MXN at this time. The Peso exchange rate is on a strong uptrend at the moment versus the US Dollar, and has seen a strong monthly gain to start the new year with gains in eight out of the last nine weeks. The MXN is now at the highest price level since June of 2024 and is up by over 20% in the last 52 weeks.

The Euro common currency’s speculative bets fell sharply for a second consecutive week, and have now declined by over -50,000 contracts in just the past two weeks. However, the Euro has been in a super strong position and indicates a likely profit-taking dip as the net speculative contracts have been above the +100,000 net contract level for 28 out of the last 32 weeks, including for the last eight consecutive weeks. The Euro currency closed out this week above the 1.18 level in the forex market after hitting support last week and rebounding off of the 1.1620 area. What a difference a year makes as last January, the Euro currency was trading around just 1.0250. And since then, the currency has risen by about 15%. Time will tell if the Euro can break above the 1.1865 resistance area that has stopped its ascent multiple times since June.

The US Dollar Index position dropped this week by over -2,500 contracts after seeing seven straight weeks of gains previously. The US Dollar Index net positions have now been in an overall bearish level for the past 32 consecutive weeks, dating back to June of 2025. The Dollar Index price has been on a strong downtrend for the past year and this week closed under the 97.50 level with an almost 2% drop on the week. Compared to last January, when this currency was trading around the 1.09 to 1.10 levels, USD Index is now currently lower by approximately 11%.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance led by NZD & AUD

The best returning currency this week was the New Zealand Dollar which showed a 3.36% gain, while the Australian Dollar came in at a similar 3.13% rise over these past five days. The Swiss Franc was higher by 2.74%, followed by the British Pound with a 1.92% gain and the Euro with a 1.91% gain. The Brazilian Real was higher by 1.60%, while the Canadian Dollar was up by 1.59%. The Mexican Peso rose by 1.4%, and the Japanese Yen showed an increase by 1.45%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index dropped by -1.90% over these past five days while Bitcoin saw the biggest decline with a -6.23% drop.

The leaders over the past 30 days are the Mexican Peso, with a gain of approximately 4% over that time, with a 3.8% rise, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 3.45%. The Peso and the Australian Dollar also lead the past 90 days percent changes, with the Peso up by 5.7% over that time and the Australian Dollar higher by 4.26%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (82 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (71 percent), Australian Dollar (66 percent) and Bitcoin (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (27 percent) and the British Pound (30 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (26.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (34.1 percent)
EuroFX (71.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (30.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (38.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (38.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (76.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (66.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (62.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (82.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (80.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.9 percent)
Bitcoin (59.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (54.2 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (44 percent) and the Australian Dollar (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (23 percent), the US Dollar Index (20 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-17 percent), EuroFX (-10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (20.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.7 percent)
EuroFX (-10.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (22.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-17.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (34.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (2.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-29.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-31.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-10.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	30.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.8	9.2	9.0
– Net Position:	-6,418	6,305	113
– Gross Longs:	16,003	9,023	2,762
– Gross Shorts:	22,421	2,718	2,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	3.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.8	73.8	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-19.9	-2.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 111,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 132,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	55.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	73.1	5.6
– Net Position:	111,695	-155,596	43,901
– Gross Longs:	275,235	488,166	92,941
– Gross Shorts:	163,540	643,762	49,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.3	28.2	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	11.6	-14.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.2	43.8	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.8	35.6	13.7
– Net Position:	-21,980	17,082	4,898
– Gross Longs:	81,332	91,023	33,243
– Gross Shorts:	103,312	73,941	28,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.3	66.9	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-26.2	35.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,164 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	39.5	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	25.4	13.5
– Net Position:	-44,829	41,140	3,689
– Gross Longs:	107,139	115,583	43,047
– Gross Shorts:	151,968	74,443	39,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.3	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	14.9	7.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -43,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	73.3	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.5	24.4	19.0
– Net Position:	-43,207	47,972	-4,765
– Gross Longs:	12,257	71,873	13,860
– Gross Shorts:	55,464	23,901	18,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.3	77.7	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	8.8	-3.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	56.2	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	34.7	15.0
– Net Position:	-41,785	45,990	-4,205
– Gross Longs:	59,456	120,142	27,744
– Gross Shorts:	101,241	74,152	31,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	30.5	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-40.8	10.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	43.6	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	48.7	7.3
– Net Position:	-14,011	-11,787	25,798
– Gross Longs:	85,759	100,608	42,698
– Gross Shorts:	99,770	112,395	16,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	22.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.7	-33.9	17.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	79.4	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.3	24.6	5.3
– Net Position:	-49,610	50,811	-1,201
– Gross Longs:	13,670	73,619	3,742
– Gross Shorts:	63,280	22,808	4,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	91.2	36.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-8.7	6.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 107,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	32.4	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	79.1	1.2
– Net Position:	107,153	-111,938	4,785
– Gross Longs:	153,398	77,773	7,650
– Gross Shorts:	46,245	189,711	2,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.4	17.6	49.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-0.6	5.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.0	26.9	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	53.0	1.2
– Net Position:	17,641	-21,265	3,624
– Gross Longs:	53,730	21,911	4,628
– Gross Shorts:	36,089	43,176	1,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	46.1	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.0	27.6	6.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.8	3.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.6	5.6	4.6
– Net Position:	298	-445	147
– Gross Longs:	19,841	940	1,285
– Gross Shorts:	19,543	1,385	1,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	46.7	45.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-2.2	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Jan

USD/JPY Continues Its Uptrend as Yen Weakens Further

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY rose to 158.61 on Friday, continuing its upward movement as the yen remains under pressure. Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy decision.

The BOJ recently kept rates unchanged after a hike to 0.75% in December – ** the highest level in nearly 30 years. Market participants are now focusing on comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda for clues on the timing of the next rate hike, especially amid the yen’s persistent weakness.

Recent data showed a slowdown in core inflation in December, but it remains above the BOJ’s 2% target. Additionally, fiscal risks have added pressure on the yen, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi prepares to dissolve parliament and call early elections, a move aimed at consolidating power and promoting fiscal expansion.

As USD/JPY approaches the psychologically significant 160 level, market expectations of possible currency intervention are growing, leading to increased caution among traders.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 158.50. The breakout to the upside has opened the potential for a rise to 160.00. After reaching this level, a potential decline to 158.00 may occur. The MACD indicator supports this bullish scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing upward.

On the H1 chart, a growth wave structure is forming towards 159.30, with a possible correction to 158.70 before continuing the ascent to 160.00. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 50 and pointing towards 80.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to rise, driven by the yen’s weakness and market expectations of further BOJ rate hikes. As the pair approaches the 160 level, the potential for currency intervention increases, keeping market participants cautious. Technically, the upward trend remains intact, with key levels to watch at 160.00 and 158.00.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 Jan

Currency Speculators bets improving for GBP, MXN and going bearish for JPY

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning and the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (5,268 contracts) with Bitcoin (803 contracts), the Brazilian Real (257 contracts), the Australian Dollar (114 contracts), the US Dollar Index (101 contracts) and also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-53,979 contracts), the EuroFX (-30,156 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-5,488 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-5,743 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,126 contracts) and with the Canadian Dollar (-1,665 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Speculators bets improving for GBP, MXN and going bearish for JPY

Highlighting the latest currency data is the British pound sterling seeing improved sentiment, the Mexican peso with net contracts above +100,000 positions and the Japanese yen which is shedding speculator contracts.

The British pound sterling which saw its speculator bets rise for a seventh straight week in the latest updated data. Over the last seven weeks, there have been +67,951 contracts added to the GBP speculator standing. This has taken the GBP positioning from a highly bearish -93,221 contracts to this week’s -25,270 contracts, which is the least bearish level of the last 11 weeks. The British pound sterling positioning has been consistently on the bearish side, dating back to July of 2025—a span of 25 weeks. The British pound exchange rate against the US Dollar has fluctuated since that time and is actually down by about 300 pips from the July 2025 high.

The Mexican peso futures speculator bets dipped this week for the first time in four weeks. However, the peso position is strongly bullish at the current moment, with the overall net position above the 100,000 contract level for a fourth straight week and for the fifth time out of the last six weeks. These are currently the highest and most bullish levels for the peso since June of 2024. In the currency market trading, the peso has been on a steady uptrend since bottoming in February 2025. Since hitting that bottom, the peso is up by roughly 20% against the US dollar and is up by over 2% to start 2026.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Japanese yen has seen its net speculator position fall into a bearish net standing this week at -45,164 contracts. This was because of a huge decline on the week of over -53,000 contracts. The sentiment for the Japanese yen has shifted sharply, as the yen bullish position was above +100,000 contracts consistently for 21 weeks last year from March all the way to July. Since then, there has been a steady decline week to week and month to month that has culminated in a negative bearish position for the yen. The yen futures price has also been on a stark downtrend and is touching the lowest levels since 2024. Despite recent interest rates in Japan rising (which is usually a boost for the home currency), the yen has been going the opposite way. Giving caution to the yen bulls is the outlook for the new prime minister possibly being implementing a dovish policy and hindering the Bank of Japan plans to hike the interest rate further.

The Euro speculative position saw a large reduction in bullish bets this week. The change in this week’s speculative position looks like a cool off from a very high position, as the euro speculative contracts have now been over +100,000 for seven straight weeks and above the +100,000 net contract level in 27 out of the last 31 weeks. Last week marked the highest level (+162,812 net contracts) for Euro speculative positions since August of 2023. The Euro currency price seems to be in consolidation mode between the 1.1900 level on the top side and the 1.1500 level on the lower support. Currently in the month of January, the Euro is down by -1.3% but recently hit its highest level since 2021 in November at the high of 1.1979.

Bitcoin leads 5-Day Price Performance Changes

Currency market price changes this week were led by Bitcoin, which rose by almost 6%. The Mexican Peso was next with a 1.95% change over the past five days. The US Dollar Index was higher by 0.37%, and the New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.35%.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged with a 0.02% decline, followed by the Australian Dollar with a 0.07% decrease. Next up, the Japanese Yen was lower by 0.12%, and the British Pound, as well as the Brazilian Real, were both down by 0.20%. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.29%, followed by the Euro, which fell a similar 0.30% over the past five days.

The biggest movers over the past 90 days have been the Mexican Peso, which is up by approximately 5%. The Brazilian Real is up by almost 2% over that same period, while on the downside, the Japanese Yen has fallen sharply by -6.90% in the past 90 days. The New Zealand Dollar is down by -3.69% in the past 90 days.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (81 percent) and the EuroFX (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (76 percent), the Australian Dollar (63 percent) and Bitcoin (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (9 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (29 percent) and the US Dollar Index (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (34.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.8 percent)
EuroFX (79.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (90.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (28.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (38.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (53.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (19.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (76.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (62.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (62.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (15.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (83.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.7 percent)
Bitcoin (54.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.1 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (53 percent) and the Australian Dollar (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (34 percent), the British Pound (23 percent) and the EuroFX (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-22 percent), the Swiss Franc (-15 percent) and Bitcoin (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (33.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.8 percent)
EuroFX (9.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (53.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (45.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (46.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (2.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-31.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-28.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-10.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-13.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.0	24.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.5	11.4	9.9
– Net Position:	-3,730	3,739	-9
– Gross Longs:	17,929	7,158	2,952
– Gross Shorts:	21,659	3,419	2,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.1	66.8	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-31.8	-12.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 132,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -30,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	55.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	75.5	5.0
– Net Position:	132,656	-179,767	47,111
– Gross Longs:	283,592	487,595	91,580
– Gross Shorts:	150,936	667,362	44,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	20.0	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-8.2	-0.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	46.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	34.5	14.0
– Net Position:	-25,270	25,504	-234
– Gross Longs:	79,003	97,243	28,832
– Gross Shorts:	104,273	71,739	29,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	70.2	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.3	-24.9	22.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -53,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,815 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	38.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.3	23.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-45,164	45,819	-655
– Gross Longs:	111,743	114,303	44,360
– Gross Shorts:	156,907	68,484	45,015
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	62.5	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	21.2	-6.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -43,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,266 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	71.5	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.0	22.5	18.4
– Net Position:	-43,392	47,163	-3,771
– Gross Longs:	13,395	68,778	13,977
– Gross Shorts:	56,787	21,615	17,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	76.4	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	16.8	-11.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	55.7	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.9	34.8	14.4
– Net Position:	-42,250	45,815	-3,565
– Gross Longs:	62,705	122,096	28,109
– Gross Shorts:	104,955	76,281	31,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	30.4	35.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	53.2	-49.9	15.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,960 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	45.0	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	46.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-18,846	-3,610	22,456
– Gross Longs:	83,955	103,295	39,790
– Gross Shorts:	102,801	106,905	17,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.9	27.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.8	-44.0	22.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	81.8	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.6	23.8	5.3
– Net Position:	-48,851	49,362	-511
– Gross Longs:	9,613	69,662	4,002
– Gross Shorts:	58,464	20,300	4,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	89.6	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-7.4	29.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.7	33.1	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	77.9	1.1
– Net Position:	103,558	-108,180	4,622
– Gross Longs:	153,670	79,940	7,287
– Gross Shorts:	50,112	188,120	2,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	19.4	48.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-2.6	1.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.3	27.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	54.1	1.1
– Net Position:	17,874	-21,003	3,129
– Gross Longs:	52,400	21,753	4,017
– Gross Shorts:	34,526	42,756	888
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	46.3	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.3	30.7	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 69 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	5.3	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.9	5.8	4.8
– Net Position:	69	-134	65
– Gross Longs:	19,118	1,257	1,204
– Gross Shorts:	19,049	1,391	1,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	53.6	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	10.2	2.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

16 Jan

USD/JPY Slips as the Yen Reacts to a Wave of Market News

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell to 158.16 on Friday as the Japanese yen continued its recovery from earlier this week. Market participants are increasingly focused on the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, hoping for clearer signals regarding the future pace of interest rate hikes.

The regulator is widely expected to keep its policy parameters unchanged at the next meeting. However, investors are already pricing in the next rate hike as early as June. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated that the central bank remains ready to tighten policy if economic momentum and inflation dynamics continue to align with official forecasts.

Additional support for the yen came from renewed concerns over possible currency intervention as USD/JPY approached the psychologically important 160 level. Japanese authorities have repeatedly warned against sharp, unilateral exchange rate movements, increasing market sensitivity in this zone.

At the same time, political uncertainty continues to weigh on the yen. Markets are factoring in the possibility of early parliamentary elections. According to media reports, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may announce the dissolution of the lower house in an effort to push forward a more active fiscal policy. Further details are expected to be presented to representatives of the ruling coalition on 19 January.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has corrected to the 157.90 area. For today, it is relevant to consider the potential formation of the initial phase of a renewed upward structure, targeting 159.59, with the prospect of a further move towards 160.00.

This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above the zero level and is directed sharply upward, indicating that bullish momentum remains despite the recent correction.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around 158.77. The range has currently expanded downward to 157.97.

A breakout below this level would likely trigger a decline towards 156.60
A breakout to the upside would open the way for a bullish wave towards 159.59

This outlook is supported by the Stochastic Oscillator, whose signal line is positioned above the 50 level and is moving steadily upward towards 80, indicating growing bullish pressure.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains at a critical juncture, balancing yen support from intervention risks and expectations of BoJ tightening against ongoing pressure from political uncertainty. In the short term, consolidation is likely to persist, but a breakout from the current range will define the next directional move. As long as the pair holds above key support levels, the broader bullish trend towards the 160 area remains technically valid, while a downside breakout would shift focus towards deeper corrective targets.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Jan

Week Ahead: USDJPY timebomb flirts near “danger zone”

By ForexTime

JPY ↓ over 1% versus USD year-to-date
Japan last intervened in July 2024, spending $36.8 billion
US PCE + Japan CPI + BoJ = fresh volatility?
Over past year BoJ triggered moves of ↑ 0.8% & ↓ 0.2%
Technical levels: 162, 160 and 158

Global FX markets could roar back to life if the yen descends deeper into intervention “danger zones”.

USDJPY is trading near an 18-month high around 158.50, a region that forced Japan to intervene back in July 2024.

To be clear, the government jumped into action after USDJPY almost hit 162.00, which is less than 2% away from current prices.

With chatter around intervention getting louder by the day, this could translate to heightened levels of volatility.

Beyond this key theme, the coming week also features scheduled events that could influence USDJPY:

Monday, 19th January

US markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Annual World Economic Forum in Davos
CNY: China GDP Growth Rate (Q4); Industrial Production (Dec); Retail Sales (Dec)
CAD: Canada Inflation Rate (Dec)

Tuesday, 20th January

EUR: Germany PPI (Dec); Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jan); Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index Jan)
GBP: UK Unemployment Rate (Nov); Average Earnings
USD: US ADP Employment Weekly Change
WTI: API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Jan 16)
US500: Netflix earnings

Wednesday, 21st January

Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum
GBP: UK Inflation Rate (Dec)
USD: Pending Home Sales (Dec)
JPY: Japan Balance of Trade (Dec); Exports (Dec)

Thursday, 22nd January

AUD: Australia Employment Data (Dec); S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Jan)
NZD: New Zealand Inflation Rate (Q4 2025)
EUR: ECB Monetary Policy Accounts; Eurozone Consumer confidence (Jan)
USD: US PCE Index (Oct, Nov); Personal Income and Spending (Oct, Nov)
JPY: Japan Inflation Rate (Dec)
WTI: US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Jan 16)

Friday, 23rd January

GBP: UK Retail Sales (Dec); S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Jan); Gfk Consumer Confidence (Jan)
JPY: BoJ Interest Rate Decision
EUR: Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI (Jan); Eurozone HCOB Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Jan)
CAD: Retail Sales (Dec)
USD: US S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs (Jan)

The lowdown:

The Japanese Yen is weakening due to election-related fiscal fears and political risk, while a stronger dollar is exacerbating the situation.

A weak Yen is bad news for Japan because it boosts import costs, erodes purchasing power, and increases the cost of living.

The country’s finance minister has warned speculators that Japan will act to defend its currency, while BoJ officials are paying more attention to its impact on inflation.

Zooming out, expectations around a potential intervention may rattle FX markets and impact risk-sensitive currencies in addition to equities.

USDJPY set for a pivotal week?

Key events out of either side of the Pacific may rock the USDJPY:

1) US October/November PCE report

The incoming PCE figures are likely to shape interest rate expectations, especially the core PCE which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

On Thursday 22nd of January, both the October and November releases of the PCE reports will be published.

Traders are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a Fed cut by April with the odds jumping to 85% by June 2026.

Signs of still sticky inflation may have Fed cut expectations, pushing the USDJPY higher as the dollar strengthens.
A weaker-than-expected PCE report may pull the USDJPY lower as the USD weakens on rising Fed cut bets.

2) Japan CPI + BoJ rate decision

Japan’s December CPI report published on Thursday may influence BoJ monetary policy expectations beyond January.

Inflation is forecast to have risen 2.2% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in November due to the base effects from the jump in fresh food prices and new fuel subsidies last year.

Regarding the BoJ, it is expected to hold rates steady at 0.75% but any clues offered on future rates may rock the yen.

Traders are currently pricing in a 25% chance of a BoJ hike by March with the odds jumping to 57% by April 2026.

The Yen may rally if the BoJ strikes a hawkish note and signals a rate hike over the coming months. This may drag the USDJPY away from intervention danger zones.
A cautious-sounding BoJ may weaken the yen, pushing the USDJPY deeper into intervention zones.

3) Technical forces

The USDJPY is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

A solid move above 159.00 may encourage an incline toward 159.50 and 160.20.
Weakness below 158.20 could see prices slip toward 157.50 and 156.90.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 78.2% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 156.93 – 160.19 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Jan

GBP/USD Stable: Sentiment Shifts in Favour of Sterling

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair held around 1.3430 USD on Thursday, with the pound strengthening yesterday following better-than-expected UK economic growth data. These figures may shape market expectations for Bank of England policy in the coming months.

Since the start of January, sterling has made limited headway against the US dollar but has strengthened notably against the euro. Dollar sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Greenland, as well as renewed comments from President Donald Trump questioning the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Investor sentiment toward the pound has turned more constructive at the start of 2026. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), traders reduced bearish bets on the pound at the fastest pace in five months during the first week of January. The net long dollar position against sterling fell sharply to 2.577 billion USD, down from 6.586 billion USD at the end of December—marking the steepest weekly decline since September 2019.

Inflation in the UK eased faster than expected toward the end of 2025, and markets are currently pricing in two BoE rate cuts this year. However, analysts view this as overly optimistic: persistently weak growth and subdued inflation could ultimately weigh on the currency. Upcoming soft employment and inflation data for December will be key to reassessing the likelihood of a rate cut as early as February, though markets currently assign low odds to such a move.

Next week brings key releases, including consumer prices and labour market data, followed by GDP figures on Thursday. A Reuters poll suggests the UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the three months to November, with annual growth estimated at around 1.1%.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is forming a broad consolidation range around 1.3455 USD. The range is expected to extend toward 1.3395 USD, followed by a corrective bounce to 1.3415 USD. Once complete, the downtrend may resume toward 1.3290 USD, with further potential to 1.3220 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bearish near-term outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has established a tight consolidation range around 1.3440 USD. A downward move toward 1.3395 USD is in progress, and a break below this level would open the door to further declines toward 1.3290 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is below 20 and trending lower, indicating sustained selling momentum.

Conclusion

Despite improving sentiment and a sharp reduction in speculative short positions, the pound remains vulnerable to downside risks from domestic data and shifting BoE expectations. Technically, the pair retains a near-term bearish bias, with key support levels at 1.3395 USD and 1.3290 USD. A break below these levels could accelerate declines, while any sustained recovery would likely require stronger-than-expected UK data in the coming week.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Jan

EUR/USD Awaiting US Inflation Data for Direction

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair stabilised around 1.1658 on Tuesday, following a period of volatility over the preceding two sessions.

Market focus remains firmly on the forthcoming US inflation data, which is expected to provide crucial clarity on the future path of Federal Reserve policy. Currently, the market is pricing in two rate cuts this year, with the first anticipated in June. However, any upside surprise in inflation could significantly temper expectations for policy easing.

Supporting a more dovish outlook was last week’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for December, which revealed weaker-than-expected job growth.

Investors are also monitoring developments in the US Supreme Court, which is expected to rule on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy as early as Wednesday.

Earlier this week, the US dollar faced additional headwinds following reports that Fed Chair Jerome Powell could face scrutiny over his congressional testimony related to a building renovation project. This has raised concerns, albeit limited, regarding the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the pair is forming a corrective retracement within the context of the second downward impulse. The immediate corrective target stands at 1.1700. Once this correction concludes, we anticipate the resumption of the downtrend, with the next bearish target at 1.1555. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing decisively downward, reinforcing the ongoing bearish momentum and potential for further downside.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a decline to 1.1655 and is now forming an upward corrective impulse towards 1.1700. Upon reaching this level, we expect a renewed wave of selling pressure to emerge. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is currently below 20 but is turning upward towards 80, indicating room for a short-term rebound before the next potential decline.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair is in a holding pattern ahead of key US inflation data, which will likely dictate the near-term direction of the pair. While the technical structure remains bearish, a corrective bounce towards 1.1700 appears likely before sellers potentially regain control. A stronger-than-expected inflation print could reinforce the dollar’s strength and accelerate the move towards 1.1555.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Jan

USD/JPY Stalls Near One-Year High

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair paused on Monday after a sharp rally to around 157.95, with the yen holding near its lowest levels of the year. Trading activity was subdued as Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.

Political uncertainty increased after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a key coalition partner, raised the possibility of early elections on 8 or 15 February, adding another layer of caution to the market.

The yen also faced pressure from recent mixed macroeconomic data, which have clouded the outlook for the Bank of Japan’s future rate-hike trajectory.

Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if economic momentum and inflation align with forecasts, while also emphasising a flexible approach to policy adjustments.

Over the coming week, traders will focus on a series of key Japanese economic indicators, including current account figures, machine tool orders, manufacturing PMI, and business sentiment data. Any surprises could prompt a shift in the yen’s direction.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the pair has completed a local advance to 157.77 and is likely to enter a period of consolidation around this level. A break below this range could trigger a corrective move towards 156.60. Conversely, an upward break would open the potential for the rally to extend towards 159.33. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero and pointing firmly upward, indicating ongoing bullish momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a consolidation range centred around 157.77, with interim boundaries at 158.18 to the upside and 157.50 to the downside. A downward exit from this range could see a decline towards 156.60, while an upward resolution would signal potential for a further move towards 159.33. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is above 50 and rising towards 80, suggesting continued near-term upward momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has entered a period of consolidation near annual highs, with direction likely to be determined by upcoming Japanese data and political developments. While the broader technical bias remains bullish, a break below 157.50 could signal the start of a short-term correction.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.