Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 3

03 May

Canadian Dollar Speculator Bets up strongly for 2nd week as CAD price gains for 4th week

By InvestMacro


Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was a jump by the Canadian Dollar (20,358 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (7,052 contracts), Brazilian Real (2,910 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,132 contracts), Bitcoin (321 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (122 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,600 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,599 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,612 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,948 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-475 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Canadian Dollar bets gained strongly for 2nd week as CAD price rises for 4th week

Highlighting the Currency markets this week were the Canadian dollar speculator bets, which rose by over 20,000 contracts this week following last week’s approximate gain of 20,000 contracts as well. Canadian dollar speculators have boosted their positions in the past two weeks following the previous five weeks where speculator bets had declined sharply and brought the overall standing to its lowest level since December. The current standing for speculator bets is still in bearish territory at -38,476 contracts but is at a 67% strength score compared to the past 3-years range illustrating how bearish the CAD has been recently.

The Canadian dollar, as one of the commodity currencies, is typically helped out by higher commodity prices and could see an outlook for a higher upside with higher energy and commodity prices likely to persist going forward. There is also speculation the Bank of Canada (BOC) may be inclined to have a bias of raising interest rates with the economic outlook. The Canadian dollar’s price in the Foreign Exchange market has risen for four consecutive weeks. This week the CAD closed out trading at a 0.7374 exchange rate and above its 200-week moving average. Currently, the CAD is in an ascending triangle pattern with overhead resistance around 0.7400. A break above this could test the highest levels for the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar since September of 2024.

The Australian dollar speculator positions got a boost this week by over 7,000 contracts and halts a three-week streak of declining bullish bets. The overall positioning for the Australian dollar speculators comes in at 71,869 contracts this week, which is an extreme bullish score for the Australian dollar compared to the last three years. The Australian dollar’s strength score is currently at a 94.9% reading compared to these last three years which had seen net positions mainly in bearish territory until January 27th. The Australian dollar currency price in the Foreign Exchange markets has been on a strong bullish run and has risen for five consecutive weeks and in 13 out of the past 15 weeks. The Aussie closed out the week at 0.7204, and this marks the highest weekly price close since May of 2022. The AUD is currently sitting right at resistance in the 0.7200 area and a further break above this could bring 0.7350 into play.

Next up, the Brazilian real rose by roughly 3,000 speculator contracts this week, and has risen for two consecutive weeks, as well as three out of the past four weeks. The real has seen a consistently bullish net contract position dating back to February of 2025. The real currently has a total net standing of 46,443 contracts and the current positioning is at a strength score of 73.7% of its three-year range — bullish, but not extremely bullish as of yet. The BRL price has been in a strong uptrend in the Currency markets and has risen for six out of the past seven weeks. Currently the BRL, which closed at 0.2006 this week, is at the highest weekly close since March of 2024, a span of over two years.

Finally, the US Dollar Index saw a slight decline in its speculative bets this week for the third consecutive week. Right now, the US Dollar Index has a total net position of 4,508. Compared to the past three years, this positioning is almost right down the middle with a 56.3% strength score signalling an almost a neutral position for speculators at this time compared to the past three years. In the FX markets, the US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in a range between 96.50 on the downside and with prices being capped around the 100.00 level on the upside. The current pricing is very close to the middle of that range, and we will have to wait to see if the US Dollar Index decisively breaks either of those barriers before evaluating the next levels to be.

Japanese Yen (BOJ Intervention) and Australian Dollar lead Currency markets price performance.

Over the past week, the Japanese Yen was the highest mover in the Foreign Exchange market, with a 1.62% gain over the past five days. The Yen’s sharp gain this week was reportedly helped out by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Currency intervention. This was the first time the BOJ had intervened in the Currency markets in the past couple of years, and this was to stem a slide in the Yen’s performance. The intervention helped cut the US Dollar strength against the Yen as the USD/JPY Currency pair dropped from an exchange rate mid-week over 160.70 to approximately around the 156.00 area. The USD/JPY pair closed the week out at the 157.08 exchange.

Coming in second for the week was the Australian Dollar, which rose by 0.83% and has now risen by 4.79% over the past 30 days. Over the past 90 days, the Australian Dollar has been up by 7.75% against the US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar came in next with a 0.59% gain and was followed by the Swiss Franc, which rose by 0.53%. The New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.45%, while the Brazilian Real was close behind at 0.44%, and the British Pound Sterling was also not too far behind with a 0.38% rise. Rounding out the week for the gainers was the Euro, which edged up by a small 0.13%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was lower by -0.18%, followed by the Mexican Peso, which fell by -0.27%, and Bitcoin came in as the biggest decliner with a -0.57% shortfall.

Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has seen the biggest rise with a roughly 15% gain, followed by the Brazilian Real, which is up by 5.86% over the past 30 days. The only market lower over the past 30 days is the US Dollar Index with a -1.91% decline.

Over the past 90 days, the Brazilian Real is the performance leader with an 8.42% increase, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 7.75%. On the downside, the US Dollar Index is lower by -1.14% and is followed by Bitcoin, which is lower over the past 90 days by a modest -0.54%.

Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Australian Dollar


COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (97 percent) and the Australian Dollar (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (74 percent), Canadian Dollar (68 percent) and the US Dollar Index (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (12 percent) and the British Pound (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (23 percent) and the Swiss Franc (30 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.6 percent)
EuroFX (42.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (24.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (67.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (73.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.6 percent)
Bitcoin (97.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.7 percent)

Bitcoin & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the EuroFX (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (2 percent), the British Pound (2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-27 percent) was the leader in the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-20 percent), Canadian Dollar (-17 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.3 percent)
EuroFX (5.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-24.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-20.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-16.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-40.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (1.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-26.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-13.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.5 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (15.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,983 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.126.58.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.444.25.9
– Net Position:4,508-5,404896
– Gross Longs:17,1808,1192,687
– Gross Shorts:12,67213,5231,791
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.341.954.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.2-1.2-6.4

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -5,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,324 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.158.610.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.668.05.9
– Net Position:35,712-75,13739,425
– Gross Longs:217,091469,71586,558
– Gross Shorts:181,379544,85247,133
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.455.657.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-5.74.5

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -60,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,039 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.666.79.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.642.410.9
– Net Position:-60,63964,120-3,481
– Gross Longs:59,577175,79025,368
– Gross Shorts:120,216111,67028,849
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.885.244.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-2.43.5

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -102,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,460 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.654.111.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.027.410.9
– Net Position:-102,05999,2702,789
– Gross Longs:106,530201,52743,285
– Gross Shorts:208,589102,25740,496
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.676.043.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.47.413.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -1,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,273 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.879.213.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.233.821.7
– Net Position:-35,22142,729-7,508
– Gross Longs:6,35974,56212,960
– Gross Shorts:41,58031,83320,468
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.569.146.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.321.4-13.2

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:
Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 20,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,834 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.360.211.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.645.511.0
– Net Position:-38,47637,1431,333
– Gross Longs:66,517152,03529,088
– Gross Shorts:104,993114,89227,755
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.932.849.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.917.5-11.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 7,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,817 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.434.715.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.469.86.4
– Net Position:71,869-97,38525,516
– Gross Longs:136,90996,35643,136
– Gross Shorts:65,040193,74117,620
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.95.193.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.5-1.61.7

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 2,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,454 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.884.44.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.327.55.9
– Net Position:-46,32247,550-1,228
– Gross Longs:9,04470,5243,716
– Gross Shorts:55,36622,9744,944
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.987.636.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.626.6-5.5

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,701 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.344.63.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.780.61.0
– Net Position:67,823-72,7044,881
– Gross Longs:103,69790,2616,932
– Gross Shorts:35,874162,9652,051
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.148.949.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.50.5-0.5

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,533 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.534.93.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.868.50.6
– Net Position:46,443-50,7944,351
– Gross Longs:88,49252,7565,272
– Gross Shorts:42,049103,550921
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 15.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.725.045.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.11.90.9

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,071 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.40.84.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:69.311.65.1
– Net Position:2,392-2,332-60
– Gross Longs:17,4311751,046
– Gross Shorts:15,0392,5071,106
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.14.734.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.3-10.5-7.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
29 Apr

EUR/USD Holds Steady Ahead of Fed Meeting, Focus on Middle East Outlook

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD is slightly lower on Wednesday, trading with minimal movement around 1.1708. The market is preparing for a Federal Reserve meeting, which could be Jerome Powell’s last before his term ends in May.

The regulator is expected to keep rates unchanged. However, investors will closely monitor its assessment of how the Middle East conflict is affecting the economy.

Other major central banks, including the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, will also announce policy decisions this week. The Bank of Japan has already delivered a more hawkish signal by keeping rates unchanged.

Geopolitics continues to support the US dollar. US-Iran talks have stalled, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and inflation risks are rising.

According to media reports, Donald Trump was dissatisfied with Iran’s latest proposal and insisted that the nuclear issue must be included in negotiations from the outset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1688, currently extending down to 1.1675. A move lower below this level is likely, with potential downside towards 1.1656 and possibly 1.1616. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is developing a move lower towards 1.1685. A corrective rebound to 1.1705 may follow, before a further decline towards 1.1650 and potentially 1.1616. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is trading sideways ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with markets focused on how policymakers assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, this meeting is particularly significant as it may be Jerome Powell’s last before his term ends in May. Geopolitical pressures remain firmly in place: US-Iran talks have stalled, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and inflation risks are rising, all of which continue to support the US dollar. Additional central bank decisions from the ECB, BoE, and BoC this week add to the cautious market tone. Technically, the euro appears vulnerable, with indicators pointing to further downside towards 1.1650–1.1616 in the near term. The direction will likely hinge on the Fed’s tone regarding both rates and geopolitical risks.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
28 Apr

Yen Gains Support Following Bank of Japan Decision

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY edged lower on Tuesday, touching 159.26.

The Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% per annum, as widely expected. At the same time, it raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.8%, up from 1.9% previously, while downgrading its GDP growth outlook to 0.5% from 1.0%. These revisions reflect the likely economic consequences of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Investors are also monitoring developments surrounding Iran. Tehran has sent a new proposal to the US, but disagreements over the nuclear programme remain a key obstacle.

An additional factor is the stance of Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated her readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary and emphasised increased coordination with the US on foreign exchange policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 159.36 level and is moving lower towards 158.90. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible rebound towards 159.88 and potentially 160.77. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but pointing firmly downwards, indicating the potential for further short-term downside before a recovery.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is developing a move lower towards 158.90. A rebound towards 159.88 may follow, with a possible extension to 160.77. The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20, indicating that short-term downside pressure remains.

Conclusion

The yen has found some support following the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, despite the BoJ leaving rates unchanged. The key takeaway for markets was the upward revision to inflation forecasts – from 1.9% to 2.8% –driven by the Middle East conflict, alongside a downgrade to GDP growth expectations. This suggests the BoJ is acknowledging persistent price pressures while balancing weaker economic activity. Additionally, Finance Minister Katayama’s renewed commitment to currency intervention and US-Japan policy coordination has helped support the yen. Technically, USD/JPY may see further short-term downside towards 158.90 before a potential rebound. The overall direction will depend on geopolitical developments and any further signals from Japanese authorities regarding intervention.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
26 Apr

Large Currency Speculators raised their Canadian Dollar & Euro Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US Dollar where, for example, a bet for the Euro is a bet that the Euro will rise versus the Dollar while a bet against the Euro will be a bet that the Euro will decline versus the Dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (19,438 contracts) with the EuroFX (15,306 contracts), Mexican Peso (8,747 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,558 contracts), British Pound (2,685 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (824 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,252 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-6,178 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-258 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-187 contracts) and Bitcoin (-122 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Canadian Dollar and Euro Bets Rebound This Week

Leading the Currency market speculator positioning this week were strong bets for the Euro and the Canadian Dollar.

First up, the Canadian Dollar positions jumped by 19,438 contracts this week following five consecutive weeks of strong declines. The recent weakness had brought the Canadian Dollar position from a bullish level on March 10 to the most bearish position of the past 18 weeks last week. This week’s rebound halts the slide in net positioning, but the Canadian Dollar position remains in an overall bearish standing at -58,834 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar exchange rate in the Currency markets has risen for three consecutive weeks and closed out this week around the 0.7332 exchange level. The CAD is trading right up against the 200-week moving average currently, and further movement above could see the Canadian Dollar test the 0.7400 major resistance that has capped prices many times dating back to June 2025.

The Euro speculator positioning this week jumped by over 15,000 contracts and follows up last week’s strong gain of over 33,000 contracts. These two weeks of strong gains have brought the overall net standing for the Euro back into bullish territory after spending one week (on April 7) in bearish territory. Previously, the Euro was consistently sitting in strong bullish territory for a time-frame from March 2025 until March 2026, with most weeks above +100,000 contracts. Since March 10th, the Euro positioning took a deep dive and culminated in a negative position on April 7 at -7,541 contracts. With a couple of strong weeks, the position is back above +41,324 contracts this week. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Euro continues to trade within its band of recent action between 1.1500 on the downside for support and 1.1900 on the upside, providing resistance. This week, the Euro fell modestly after three straight weeks of gains and closed out the week at 1.1745 against the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index speculator position continues to be in a small bullish level. The Dollar Index speculator bets have fallen by very small amounts over the past two weeks with declines of -341 contracts and this week’s -187 contracts shortfall. The net position is currently at 4,983 net contracts, and the US Dollar overall positioning has now been in bullish territory for six consecutive weeks. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the US Dollar Index has remained within a band of support and resistance levels recently with support below at 96.75 and resistance above at 100.00. Currently, US Dollar Index price is trading around 98.36.

The Australian Dollar remains the most bullish of the speculator positioning of the Currencies currently. The AUD strength score (which is a score of today’s position compared to the past 3-years range) sits at an Extreme-Bullish reading at 91.2%. However, the Australian Dollar speculator position has been weakening a bit recently and this week fell for a third consecutive week. The overall net position is at its lowest level of the past six weeks at a total net position of 64,817 contracts but remains above the 2026 (so far) weekly average of 41,083 contracts. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the Australian Dollar has continued to show its strength as it trades currently at 0.7146. The Aussie has gained for four consecutive weeks and remains near the top of its range and best trading levels since June 2022 (vs the USD).

Bitcoin leads the price gains in Currency performances this week

Bitcoin was the biggest winner on the week for currency price performance returns with a 5.13% increase. The Brazilian Real came in second with a 0.53% rise while the New Zealand Dollar came in next with a 0.33% gain. The British Pound was higher by 0.28%. The Canadian Dollar was up by 0.25%, and the US Dollar Index was higher by 0.23%. The Australian Dollar capped off the gainers this week with a 0.22% rise.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc edged lower by -0.15% followed by the Japanese Yen which fell by -0.16%. The Mexican Peso saw lower levels by -0.17%, and the Euro saw a modest shortfall by -0.19% on the week.

Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (91 percent) and Bitcoin (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent), Canadian Dollar (59 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Swiss Franc (33 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (58.1 percent)
EuroFX (44.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (38.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (50.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (91.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (42.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.0 percent)
Bitcoin (90.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (93.1 percent)

US Dollar Index & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (29 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Bitcoin (15 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-24 percent), Japanese Yen (-15 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (29.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (27.4 percent)
EuroFX (-24.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-42.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-18.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-40.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-42.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.6 percent)
Bitcoin (15.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,170 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.526.49.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.245.46.3
– Net Position:4,983-5,814831
– Gross Longs:17,6178,0932,750
– Gross Shorts:12,63413,9071,919
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.640.753.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.3-30.13.5

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 15,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,018 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.558.211.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.368.75.6
– Net Position:41,324-83,66342,339
– Gross Longs:217,407459,84486,804
– Gross Shorts:176,083543,50744,465
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.552.763.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.321.04.4

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,724 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.965.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.744.011.1
– Net Position:-52,03956,839-4,800
– Gross Longs:63,086172,75224,374
– Gross Shorts:115,125115,91329,174
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.582.440.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.7-11.7-5.4

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -94,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -11,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,208 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.853.611.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.726.511.6
– Net Position:-94,46095,467-1,007
– Gross Longs:101,386188,72339,688
– Gross Shorts:195,84693,25640,695
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.775.034.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.612.59.2

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,097 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.178.412.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.532.222.0
– Net Position:-33,27342,255-8,982
– Gross Longs:8,37271,76211,159
– Gross Shorts:41,64529,50720,141
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.568.440.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.8-4.4-21.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 19,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,272 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.962.211.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.939.011.5
– Net Position:-58,83459,221-387
– Gross Longs:60,889158,81428,975
– Gross Shorts:119,72399,59329,362
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.141.744.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.941.7-24.0

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,075 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.836.416.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.270.26.2
– Net Position:64,817-93,19828,381
– Gross Longs:128,811100,16845,525
– Gross Shorts:63,994193,36617,144
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.27.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-4.90.8

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -6,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,276 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.684.94.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.325.55.4
– Net Position:-48,45448,983-529
– Gross Longs:7,91770,0563,915
– Gross Shorts:56,37121,0734,444
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.589.245.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.013.5-8.2

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 8,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,954 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.843.93.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.280.91.0
– Net Position:67,701-72,4154,714
– Gross Longs:101,30685,8026,695
– Gross Shorts:33,605158,2171,981
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.5 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.049.048.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.33.64.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,975 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.924.44.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.559.01.0
– Net Position:43,533-47,9794,446
– Gross Longs:89,92233,7985,849
– Gross Shorts:46,38981,7771,403
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.4 to 14.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.627.045.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.55.02.4

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,193 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.40.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.19.84.2
– Net Position:2,071-2,250179
– Gross Longs:17,0971941,233
– Gross Shorts:15,0262,4441,054
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.76.546.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.3-20.78.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
23 Apr

EUR/USD Falls for Third Day as Geopolitics and Strong Dollar Dictate Terms

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD has declined steadily, falling to 1.1688 on Thursday. The US dollar has returned to ten-day highs amid a lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks, boosting demand for the currency as a safe-haven asset.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Tehran continues to control this strategically vital waterway, with reports indicating it has previously seized two vessels in the area. At the same time, the US blockade of Iranian ports persists, contributing to higher energy prices and increasing risk for inflation.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that the current truce will remain in force indefinitely, as Washington awaits a new peace proposal from Iran.

Investors remain concerned about US inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year. Earlier, Fed nominee Kevin Warsh emphasised the importance of maintaining the central bank’s independence from the White House.

Market focus now shifts to weekly jobless claims and PMI data, which should provide further insight into the outlook for the US economy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1736, currently extending down to 1.1693. The pair is likely to move lower towards 1.1680. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is developing a move lower towards 1.1680. A corrective rebound to 1.1711 may follow, before a further decline towards 1.1620. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards, suggesting continued short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

 

EUR/USD has declined for a third consecutive session amid geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar. The lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks, combined with Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports, has kept energy prices elevated and inflation risks in focus. Trump’s indication that the truce will remain in place indefinitely, pending a new proposal from Iran, offers little immediate relief. With markets now pricing in no Fed rate cuts this year and key US data approaching, the euro remains under pressure. Technical signals suggest further downside towards 1.1680, and potentially to 1.1620 in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
22 Apr

USD/JPY Pulls Higher: Yen Doubts Bank of Japan

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY climbed to 159.36 mid-week, with the Japanese yen losing ground for a second consecutive day. The market is pricing in the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook ahead of next week’s meeting.

The regulator is likely to keep rates unchanged while continuing to analyse the impact of the Middle East conflict on the economy. At the same time, a signal to return to policy normalisation may emerge in June.

A revision to forecasts is also expected. Inflation data may be revised upward amid rising energy prices, while economic growth forecasts may be revised downward due to external risks.

On the positive side, Japan’s exports grew for the seventh consecutive month, supported by demand from China and ASEAN countries.

Additional pressure on the yen is coming from a strengthening US dollar following the breakdown of the second round of US-Iran negotiations, although the ceasefire has been formally extended.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a consolidation range around the 159.02 level and broke higher to 159.62. A correction to 159.02 is likely, followed by a possible rise to 160.44. Subsequently, a move lower towards 157.70 may develop, with a potential extension to 156.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above the zero level and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting the potential for the upward move to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of a downward wave to 159.00. A move higher towards 160.44 is possible thereafter. The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 50 level and pointing firmly downwards towards 20, indicating that short-term downside potential remains.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to push higher as market doubts over the Bank of Japan’s policy direction weigh on the yen. With the BoJ expected to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting while assessing the impact of the Middle East conflict, a potential signal for policy normalisation may not come until June. Upward revisions to inflation forecasts and downward revisions to growth expectations add to the complex outlook. While stronger exports provide some positive news, pressure on the yen persists from a firmer dollar following the breakdown of US-Iran talks. Technically, further upside towards 160.44 appears likely before any sustained pullback, with the pair’s direction hinging on next week’s BoJ signals.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
21 Apr

NZD and CAD strengthen amid rising inflationary pressure

By JustMarkets 

The US stock market ended Monday’s trading session with moderate declines. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.01%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.24%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.31%. The main pressure factor was the sharp return of the geopolitical risk premium into asset prices. Donald Trump’s ultimatum regarding the ceasefire expiring this week and his decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked until a final agreement is signed destroyed hopes for a quick de‑escalation. This triggered an immediate rise in oil prices, which in turn reshaped sector dynamics. A clear rotation of capital was observed in the market. Investors exited overheated tech stocks and “defensive” utilities, reallocating funds into energy, financials, and materials.

On Monday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to 1.37 against the US dollar, marking its best level in a month. The key factor was the reversal in the energy sector: consumer energy inflation surged to 3.9%, fully offsetting the 9.3% lower deflation seen a month earlier. This sharp shift was driven by an unprecedented jump in gasoline prices – up 21.2% in just one month. Such macroeconomic data virtually eliminate the possibility of near‑term rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, further supporting the currency.

European stock indices began the trading week with a noticeable decline. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 1.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.55%. The main trigger for the sell‑off was an incident in the Gulf of Oman, where US Marines seized control of an Iranian container ship after an armed confrontation. This episode, following Iran’s attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz the day before, led to the cancellation of the scheduled Monday negotiations in Islamabad. The Iranian side refused to participate, citing the ongoing naval blockade of its ports, effectively pushing the region to the brink of a full‑scale energy crisis. The tourism and entertainment sector suffered the most due to expectations of rising jet‑fuel prices. Shares of low‑cost carrier Ryanair plunged down by 3.5%, dragging the entire segment down.

Platinum prices (XPT) fell more than 2% to below 2,100 dollars per ounce, retreating from a four‑week high due to broad pressure on the precious‑metals sector. The main negative factor was the sharp spike in oil prices following the renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian vessel by the US Navy. Despite the current decline, the platinum market continues to show signs of structural deficit due to the extreme vulnerability of supply in South Africa and Russia. While South African mines suffer from aging infrastructure and exorbitant electricity costs, Russian production continues to shrink under international sanctions. Current levels of secondary recycling remain insufficient to offset the shortage of primary supply, providing fundamental support to prices and limiting the potential for further declines even amid a stronger dollar and geopolitical instability.

The WTI oil market saw a sharp reversal: prices jumped more than 5%, reaching 88.8 dollars per barrel. This rise followed an 11.5% collapse last Friday and was triggered by a sharp cooling of diplomatic expectations over the weekend. The main driver of volatility was Donald Trump’s hardline rhetoric. The US President stated that extending the current ten‑day ceasefire with Tehran is highly unlikely unless a final agreement is signed by the end of the week. Moreover, Trump made it clear that the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until the deal is legally finalized. With the world’s key artery for oil and gas shipments still closed, the market once again began pricing in a scenario of prolonged supply shortages. The current standoff threatens to evolve into a chronic global energy crisis, as importers’ reserves continue to deplete amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.60% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up 0.77%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.07%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened to 0.591 US dollars, reaching a six‑week high amid unexpectedly strong inflation data. Consumer prices in the first quarter of 2026 rose by 3.1% year‑on‑year, not only exceeding analysts’ expectations (2.9%) but also confirming that inflationary pressure remains above the RBNZ target range (1-3%). Traders now fully price in a rate hike in July, expecting that in the second quarter, the energy shock from the Middle East conflict will lead to an even sharper rise in prices.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,109.14 −16.92 (−0.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,442.56 −4.87 (−0.01%)

DAX (DE40) 24,417.80 −284.44 (−1.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,609.08 −58.55 (−0.55%)

USD Index 98.06 −0.04 (−0.04%)

News feed for: 2026.04.21

  • New Zealand Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
  • UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
  • UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
  • UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • US Fed Chair-Designate Warsh Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
  • US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
21 Apr

Pound Declines Amid Geopolitics and Political Risks

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD traded at 1.3515 on Tuesday as the US dollar strengthened. Pressure on the pound intensified at the start of the week following a sharp escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with markets fearing the breakdown of the truce and rotating into safe-haven assets.

The trigger was heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The US reported the detention of an Iranian vessel, while Tehran refused to participate in further negotiations. This development supported higher oil prices and boosted demand for the dollar.

An additional factor weighing on sterling is domestic UK politics. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has come under pressure following the scandal surrounding the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US. The market is watching his parliamentary address and assessing the risks of political instability.

Despite the current decline, the pound remains close to two-month highs and is up approximately 2% for the month. It had previously been supported by expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East. If political pressure on the government intensifies further, the pound could give back some of its recent gains.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a wide consolidation range above 1.3494, currently extending up to 1.3545. A move lower towards 1.3333 is likely in the near term. Following this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. An upside breakout would open potential for a continuation wave to 1.3611, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3120. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above the zero level and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3515 level. A downside breakout could lead to a move towards 1.3444, followed by a possible rise to 1.3495. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 20 level and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

 

The pound has come under pressure as renewed US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz drive safe-haven demand for the dollar. At the same time, domestic political uncertainty adds an extra layer of risk. The detention of an Iranian vessel and Tehran’s refusal to negotiate have revived energy supply concerns and pushed oil prices higher. Meanwhile, the scandal surrounding the UK ambassador appointment has put Prime Minister Starmer in a difficult position, with markets assessing the potential for political instability. Despite the current pullback, sterling remains near two-month highs, having gained 2% this month. However, technical indicators suggest further near-term downside, and the pound could give back more of its recent gains if geopolitical or political pressures intensify.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
20 Apr

EUR/USD Starts the Week Higher, but the Outlook Remains Unstable

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD moved higher on Monday after a correction, trending towards 1.1759. Earlier, the US dollar had partially regained ground following last week’s decline, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid an escalation of the US-Iran conflict.

Donald Trump reported that the US Navy opened fire and detained an Iranian ship in the Gulf of Oman after it failed to comply with orders when leaving the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran, in turn, abandoned plans to open the strait after Washington failed to lift the blockade of Iranian ports. Iran also signalled it would not participate in the second round of talks.

The protracted conflict is increasing risks to energy supplies, intensifying inflationary pressure, and reducing the likelihood of policy easing. Markets are revising their expectations, with the probability of a Fed rate cut diminishing this year.

The baseline scenario now assumes rates will remain unchanged in the coming months, likely through the end of 2026.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 1.1800 level, currently extending down to 1.1737. An upward wave to 1.1790 is likely. Subsequently, a downward wave to 1.1700 could develop. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above the zero level but pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the downward trend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next upward wave to the 1.1790 level. After reaching this level, a correction to 1.1700 is likely, followed by a possible rise to 1.1745. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly upwards towards 80.

Conclusion

EUR/USD has opened the week on a positive note, but the outlook remains fragile following renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Trump’s announcement of a naval incident in the Gulf of Oman and Tehran’s withdrawal from planned talks and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have revived geopolitical risks. Energy supply concerns are intensifying inflationary pressures, pushing Fed rate cut expectations further out, with rates now expected to remain on hold through 2026. While technical indicators suggest a short-term bounce towards 1.1790, the broader bearish momentum appears intact, and any sustained euro strength would likely require a genuine de-escalation of the conflict.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
17 Apr

USD/JPY in Positive Territory: Yen Erases All Weekly Gains

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.40 on Friday, with the Japanese yen surrendering all the gains accumulated since the beginning of this week. Pressure intensified following comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who failed to provide clear guidance on rates ahead of the next meeting.

Ueda noted that the regulator must balance rising inflation against the risks of an economic slowdown. Ahead of previous rate decisions, he had provided more explicit signals, and the market had expected a similar tone.

At the same time, investors acknowledge that the BoJ may raise its inflation forecasts amid rising energy prices.

Earlier in the week, the yen had strengthened following statements from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama regarding coordination with the US Treasury on foreign exchange policy and a readiness to intervene in the market if necessary.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 159.00 level, currently extending up to 159.25. A move higher towards 159.90 (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline back to the 159.00 level. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below the zero level and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next upward wave towards the 159.60 level. A wave extension to 159.90 is possible. Subsequently, a decline to at least 159.00 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above the 80 level and pointing firmly upwards.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has returned to positive territory, with the yen erasing all its weekly gains after BOJ Governor Ueda’s ambiguous rate guidance. Markets had anticipated clearer signals ahead of the upcoming meeting, but instead received a balanced assessment of competing inflation and growth risks. While the BoJ may yet raise its inflation forecasts due to higher energy prices, the lack of explicit hawkish communication has weighed on the currency. Earlier intervention warnings from the Finance Minister provided only temporary support. Technically, further upside towards 159.90 appears likely before any potential pullback, with the pair’s direction hinging on whether Ueda delivers clearer signals at the April meeting.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
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