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Pound Stays at Six-Month Low as Risks Weigh Ever Harder

GBP/USD is consolidating at 1.3232 on Tuesday. The pound remains near its lowest levels globally since late November, with growing pressure stemming from uncertainty over the Iran conflict and rising oil prices.

At the same time, the US dollar continues to draw support from strong US labour market data, which has reduced expectations of Federal Reserve easing.

US President Donald Trump has warned Iran of severe consequences if it refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, according to US intelligence estimates, the likelihood of Tehran meeting these demands remains low.

Meanwhile, the possibility of a 45-day truce involving the US, Iran, and regional mediators is being discussed, which could partially reduce tensions.

Amid high oil prices, investors have effectively ruled out a Fed rate cut this year. In the UK, by contrast, the market is now pricing in two Bank of England rate hikes for 2026. However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that such expectations may be excessive.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.3262 level, currently extending down to 1.3180. A move towards 1.3262 is expected in the near term. Following the completion of this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. An upside breakout would open the way for a continuation move to 1.3411, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3120. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3222 level. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3120. Should this level be breached, further downside potential towards 1.3050 would emerge. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range could trigger a rebound to 1.3286. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains pinned near six-month lows as a perfect storm of geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil prices, and diverging central bank expectations weighs heavily on sterling. While strong US labour data has bolstered the dollar by pushing Fed rate cut expectations further out, the UK market’s pricing of two BoE rate hikes for 2026 appears increasingly optimistic, especially given Governor Bailey’s own caution. The possibility of a 45-day truce offers a glimmer of hope for de-escalation, but US intelligence suggests Iranian compliance remains unlikely. Technical indicators point firmly lower, and unless geopolitical tensions ease substantially, the pound faces continued headwinds.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Apr

Large Currency Speculators sharply add to Canadian Dollar Bearish Bets

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (10,634 contracts) with the British Pound (5,757 contracts), the Brazilian Real (3,463 contracts), Bitcoin (147 contracts), and the US Dollar Index (64 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-31,082 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-16,392 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-10,066 contracts), the EuroFX (-8,772 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,774 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-1,582 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators sharply add to Canadian Dollar Bearish Bets

The Canadian Dollar weakness highlights the currencies markets speculator positions for the week. The large speculative Canadian Dollar position fell by over 31,000 contracts this week, marking its third consecutive week in decline and the fourth time out of the past five weeks. In just the past three weeks alone, the Canadian Dollar has shed -68,843 contracts from its overall standing, going from a net position of +36,159 contracts on March 10 to this week’s new total of -32,684 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar had been in bullish territory for a seven-week span from the end of January until the middle of March before speculators started adding bearish positions. In the Foreign Exchange markets this week, the Canadian Dollar fell modestly but has now fallen for four consecutive weeks. Previously, the Canadian Dollar had reached six-month highs in January and February, just above the 0.7415 levels. However, since the beginning of March, the Canadian Dollar has been in a downtrend which has seen its exchange rate fall to 0.7207 at the close of this week. Where the currency goes from here could be determined at its current level around 0.7200, which has been a source of major support numerous times over the past three years.

The Japanese Yen position continues to also go more bearish and fell this week for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The cumulative total of the past six weeks has now fallen by -85,827 contracts, bringing the Japanese Yen position from a bullish level of +12,955 contracts on February 17 to this week’s new total of -72,872 contracts. This week’s net position is now the most bearish since July 2024. The Japanese Yen against the US Dollar closed this week right near the 160.00 major significant level. The Yen is seeing weakness around the lowest levels of the past 30 years. Further upside will run into the 161.00 resistance area, followed by the 161.75 – 162.00 resistance that was challenged in July 2024.

Mexican Peso positions dropped sharply this week by over -16,000 contracts. Peso positioning has been sliding since late January when it was at the end of a seven-week streak where positions were over 100,000 contracts. Since then, Peso speculative positions have cooled off by a total of -45,430 contracts. That has brought the overall position down to this week’s total of 57,684 net positions. The Peso, meanwhile, has been in a nice uptrend over the past year, with prices gaining by approximately 19% since the beginning of February 2025. The Peso has run into weakness over the past six weeks. However, the currency rebounded this week strongly by approximately +1.50%, breaking a previous five-week losing streak.

The Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real lead the Currency market price performances this week

In the Currency markets, the price performance leaders were the Mexican Peso with a 1.46% rise on the week and the Brazilian Real, which increased by 1.30%. Bitcoin was modestly higher by 0.69%, while the Australian Dollar increased by 0.43%. The Japanese Yen ticked up by 0.32%, followed by the Euro, which was higher by 0.26%. Rounding out the gainers was the US Dollar Index, which edged higher by 0.03% on the week. The Swiss Franc was slightly lower by -0.02% and followed by the Canadian Dollar, which was lower by -0.34%. The British Pound was modestly lower by -0.40%, while the New Zealand Dollar rounds out the decliners on the week with a -0.84% decrease in the Currency markets.

Over the past 30 days, the only Currency that has a positive return is the US Dollar Index, which has risen by 2.48% in the past 30 days. While on the downside, Bitcoin has fallen by -5.77%, the New Zealand Dollar has dropped by -5.34%, and the Swiss Franc is down by approximately -4%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (78 percent), Canadian Dollar (70 percent) and the US Dollar Index (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (17 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (29 percent), the Japanese Yen (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (32 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (53.9 percent)
EuroFX (29.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (32.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (30.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (40.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (70.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (83.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (94.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (32.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (53.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.8 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (96.9 percent)

Swiss Franc & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (22 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (13 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the US Dollar Index (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-66 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-25 percent), Japanese Yen (-24 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (9.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (11.7 percent)
EuroFX (-66.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-65.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-4.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-13.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-25.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (7.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (13.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (12.8 percent)
Bitcoin (13.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 3,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 64 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	29.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	41.9	5.5
– Net Position:	3,681	-4,930	1,249
– Gross Longs:	21,708	11,319	3,389
– Gross Shorts:	18,027	16,249	2,140
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	43.2	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-15.3	39.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	59.7	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	64.5	6.0
– Net Position:	507	-36,991	36,484
– Gross Longs:	200,168	462,337	83,289
– Gross Shorts:	199,661	499,328	46,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	68.6	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-66.2	65.0	-35.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -52,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	68.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	43.6	12.3
– Net Position:	-52,665	61,408	-8,743
– Gross Longs:	51,304	167,652	21,248
– Gross Shorts:	103,969	106,244	29,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	84.2	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	9.3	-35.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -72,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	53.9	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	33.4	11.2
– Net Position:	-72,872	70,707	2,165
– Gross Longs:	95,356	185,944	40,898
– Gross Shorts:	168,228	115,237	38,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	68.8	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	21.9	-2.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.0	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	28.2	22.3
– Net Position:	-29,871	35,735	-5,864
– Gross Longs:	9,315	58,243	11,957
– Gross Shorts:	39,186	22,508	17,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	57.8	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-4.7	-34.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -32,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -31,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	55.8	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	40.2	15.2
– Net Position:	-32,684	33,986	-1,302
– Gross Longs:	56,421	121,227	31,625
– Gross Shorts:	89,105	87,241	32,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	31.6	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	25.9	-16.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 81,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.7	30.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	71.3	5.5
– Net Position:	81,506	-109,041	27,535
– Gross Longs:	141,775	79,251	42,040
– Gross Shorts:	60,269	188,292	14,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	98.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-15.5	-1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	79.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.4	37.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-28,588	29,446	-858
– Gross Longs:	10,663	55,919	3,735
– Gross Shorts:	39,251	26,473	4,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	67.2	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-4.8	-28.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	45.2	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	78.2	1.4
– Net Position:	57,684	-60,576	2,892
– Gross Longs:	94,183	83,284	5,529
– Gross Shorts:	36,499	143,860	2,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	57.1	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	19.1	-9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.8	28.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	69.6	0.7
– Net Position:	52,711	-56,481	3,770
– Gross Longs:	82,787	39,920	4,727
– Gross Shorts:	30,076	96,401	957
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.9	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-12.3	-4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	0.8	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.4	9.6	6.1
– Net Position:	2,253	-1,809	-444
– Gross Longs:	14,914	168	805
– Gross Shorts:	12,661	1,977	1,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	16.3	14.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-2.3	-26.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

03 Apr

GBP/USD: Geopolitical Tensions Drive Pound Selling

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD stabilised around 1.3227 on Friday following a sharp decline the previous day. Rising geopolitical tensions have weighed on the pound following fresh statements from US President Donald Trump. Increased military rhetoric towards Iran and the lack of clarity regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a jump in oil prices and heightened demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Additional pressure on the pound stems from the UK’s heavy reliance on energy imports and concerns about public finances. Yields on British government bonds have risen in tandem with energy prices, adding further strain on the currency.

Overall, market dynamics are unfolding in accordance with a classic risk-off scenario. Rising oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks are weighing on most assets, while the US dollar remains the key safe-haven currency.

Sterling had already fallen approximately 1.9% against the dollar in March amid fears of an energy shock.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.3250 level, currently extending down to 1.3180. A short-term move towards 1.3250 is expected. Following the completion of this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. An upside breakout would open the way for a continuation move to 1.3300, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3100. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3254. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3100. Should this level be breached, further downside potential towards 1.3050 would emerge. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range may trigger a rebound to 1.3300. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains under sustained pressure as President Trump’s escalated military rhetoric towards Iran and the unresolved status of the Strait of Hormuz drive oil prices higher, bolstering safe-haven demand for the US dollar. The UK’s energy import dependence and fragile public finances leave sterling particularly vulnerable in this risk-off environment. Having already lost nearly 2% in March, the pound faces continued headwinds, with technical indicators pointing to further downside potential. Near-term stabilisation is possible, but any sustained recovery would likely require a tangible de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a shift in broader risk sentiment.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Apr

USD/JPY – Yen Weakens Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.39 on Thursday, as the yen weakened amid conflicting signals from Donald Trump on a possible de-escalation of the Middle East conflict. The situation continues to support the US dollar while weighing on the yen.

The US currency strengthened following reports that the operation in Iran is “close to completion” and could achieve its goals in the coming weeks. However, these statements were accompanied by warnings of a potential escalation in hostilities. At the same time, Trump emphasised that diplomatic contacts are ongoing, keeping investors cautious and maintaining heightened attention to geopolitical risks.

For Japan, the situation remains sensitive: the country relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, and fuel prices reached record levels in March, although they have since eased slightly supported by government subsidies.

New Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada has signalled a preference for a cautious, data-driven approach. He joins the council ahead of the 27–28 April meeting, where markets currently price in a probability of a rate hike at approximately 70%.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around 159.10. The range is expected to expand to 159.50 today, followed by a decline to 157.70. An upside breakout could lead to a correction to 160.40, after which a new downward impulse to 157.70 is anticipated, with the prospect of a continued move towards 156.00. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, supporting the potential for the downtrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming an advance towards 159.50 and is likely to reach the target today. Following this, a downward wave to 157.70 (testing from below) is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this structure, with its signal line above 80 and pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued short-term downside potential.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains in positive territory, with conflicting signals from the US over Middle East de-escalation creating an uncertain backdrop that favours the dollar over the yen. While reports of progress in the Iran operation have supported the greenback, ongoing diplomatic contacts and warnings of escalation keep markets on edge. Japan’s sensitivity to oil price fluctuations adds to yen pressure, although government subsidies provide partial relief. With a new BoJ board member advocating a cautious approach and markets pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike at the April meeting, the yen’s near-term trajectory will likely depend on both geopolitical developments and upcoming policy signals from Tokyo. Technical indicators point to a possible short-term correction lower.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Apr

A Major Currency Event is Unfolding

Source: Barry Dawes (3/31/26)

With Operation Epic Fury still on everyone’s minds, Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities shares his thoughts on the market and where currencies are headed.

Epic Fury is still the focus and the implications are that a long war with boots on the ground will be endless and energy prices will strangle the world economy.

But it probably won’t run that way.

There is another government working in Iran that let 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, the UAE is moving to reclaim three islands after the November 1971 Seizure (or Occupation) of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs.

Change in control here could also change the control of the flow of tankers in the Strait.

The IRGC is now severely weakened and as an invading Terrorist government it is soon likely to be overthrown by the 55m Persians (60% of a 90million population).

Rear guard actions from an ever-dwindling IRGC are likely to just fizzle out.

No boots on the ground for this one.

Treasury Secretary Bessent says >400m bbls of oil are available in floating and other storage to ease pressures.

Oil was looking toppy in Friday’s US markets, and although it is higher today in Asian trading, let’s see where it settles overnight.

Gold

Still doesn’t look like time for a reversal.

Oversold, but the technicals for a reversal are not quite there.

Did gold complete a `C’ Wave as the end of the correction to mark the end of Wave 4?

The gold bulls think so.

So now off to wave 5 and a new high.

This is now the most widely accepted view in the market.

But if it does, it WILL then mark the end of this bull market.

So that is probably not the most likely outcome.

Do keep in mind it is just possible every rally will be sold into because so many late entrants in gold are underwater.

So just let the markets tell us what the next move is.

But also watch the currencies as well as noted below.

Silver

The silver squeeze doesn’t seem to have eventuated.

Silver and silver stocks are just having spike highs.

Gold Stocks

Spike highs here, too, in the long-term charts.

It’s hard to imagine new surges with the long-term so strongly overbought.

These indices need to turn up quickly, or they will become continuation patterns and not reversal patterns.

Individual stocks aren’t showing constructive reversal patterns.

No high volume in the right places.

ASX Gold Index

The ASX Gold Index has 55 stocks again.

Last time it had this many was in 2011.

Was down to sub 20 in 2014.

There was a big volume and value on March 20, but less in the low of March 23, and steadily lower each day since.

Peak volume was on March 20, but the low was on March 23.

Even more concerning is that transactions from October 1, 2025, to February 28, 2026, totalling AU$91.6bn and 33.3bn shares are all in losing positions at today’s price level.

This is a major overhang.

Volume needs to pick up soon.

Except TOK, of course.

Currencies

European currencies and the Yen are heading much lower.

These falling currencies won’t help the gold bull case.

Energy importers are going to suffer.

The Yen is very close to the mid-2024 low, and after that, it is just a 25% fall in a short time.

The Euro failed to break above its 50 year uptrend and has turned down to fall below parity and probably thereafter to its demise.

NATO is indeed a paper tiger, and Western Europe will be left defenceless.

High taxes, big debts, no oil or gas, mass immigration, and tyrannical bureaucrats in charge.

The EU can’t possibly hold together for much longer.

The GB Pound failed to break long-term resistance and is now heading down.

The SF also failed to break higher and regain strength above its 50-year uptrend.

Upsloping wedge says heading back to parity.

Stupidity and arrogance are leaving Western Europe increasingly irrelevant to the world economy of the decades ahead.

And there are some other currencies to watch.

This one does not look good either. It could break US$0.70.

The Chinese Yuan looks vulnerable to a downdraft as well.

US Dollar

The Australian Dollar

The AU$ has made important breakouts many other currencies.

These are very positive factors in the outlook for the next decade.

Head the markets.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Pan American Silver Corp., Barrick Mining Corp., and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
Barry Dawes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: TOK. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Forex and Currency News Opinions

31 Mar

GBP/USD – pause for recovery needed after five-day sell-off

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD is attempting to recover on Tuesday following earlier declines, bouncing from 1.3198 after five consecutive sessions of selling. Sterling remains under pressure as investors assess the impact of the Iran conflict on the British economy.

Despite this, since the beginning of March, the pound has remained one of the most stable currencies against the dollar.

However, sterling remains vulnerable. Britain’s high reliance on gas imports, persistently high inflation, and pressure on public finances are heightening risks. The yield on 10-year government bonds is holding around 4.98%, near highs not seen since 2008, following recent increases.

Additional attention is focused on the debt market: after the government bond sale, some pension funds were required to increase collateral to hedge positions, although the scale remains far from the 2022 crisis levels.

Macroeconomic data also point to a slowing economy. Business activity is growing at its slowest pace in six months, producer costs are accelerating, and retail sales are declining.

The Bank of England is likely to remain cautious about changing rates – this remains the prevailing expectation.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around 1.3297, currently extending up to 1.3434. A decline to 1.3156 is likely in the near term, followed by the formation of a new consolidation range. An upside breakout would open the way for a continuation move to 1.3300, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3100. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3322. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3100. Should this level be breached, further downside potential towards 1.3050 would emerge. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range could trigger a rebound towards 1.3300. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is attempting to stabilise after five consecutive days of selling, though the broader outlook remains fragile. While sterling has shown relative resilience compared to other currencies since March, mounting headwinds – including the UK’s energy import dependence, stubborn inflation, debt market pressures, and slowing economic activity – continue to weigh on the pound. The Bank of England’s cautious stance offers little immediate support, and technical indicators point to further downside potential. A recovery pause may materialise, but sustained upside appears unlikely without a tangible shift in either geopolitical tensions or domestic economic data.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Mar

EUR/USD: Middle East Conflict Still Determines Sentiment

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD edged higher on Monday after earlier declines, reaching 1.1516. The US dollar continues to draw support from safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has now entered its fifth week with no signs of resolution.

Tensions escalated following Donald Trump’s remarks regarding the possible confiscation of Iranian oil and control of the export hub on Kharg Island. At the same time, the US is increasing its military presence in the region and preparing for potentially prolonged operations. Iran-aligned forces, including the Houthis in Yemen, have also joined the conflict.

Rising oil prices in this environment are amplifying inflation risks and reinforcing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike this year, marking a notable shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts.

Investor focus now turns to US macroeconomic data. This week will see the release of labour market indicators, including JOLTS and ADP figures, as well as the key March employment report due on Friday.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1528. A downside breakout is expected, with a continuation wave to 1.1404 as a near-term target, followed by a subsequent rebound to 1.1528. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator – its signal line is below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting sustained bearish momentum and the potential for the downtrend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave towards 1.1440. After reaching this level, a rebound to 1.1535 is expected, potentially extending the move to 1.1647. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator – its signal line is below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains firmly driven by geopolitical forces, with the Middle East conflict entering its fifth week and showing no signs of de-escalation. The US dollar’s safe-haven appeal continues to dominate, while escalating tensions and rising oil prices have shifted market expectations from rate cuts to the possibility of a Fed hike later this year. Technical indicators point to further near-term downside, although this week’s US labour market data could introduce volatility. Until there is a tangible shift in the geopolitical landscape, the euro is likely to remain under pressure.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Mar

Euro Large Speculator Bets dropped to 55-Week Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (7,093 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (5,616 contracts), the Japanese Yen (4,974 contracts), the Australian Dollar (1,811 contracts) and Bitcoin (333 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-11,853 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,488 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,949 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,884 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-76 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-69 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculator Bets dropped to 55-Week Low

Highlighting the Currencies speculator positions this week was the continued drop in the Euro speculator bullish position. It has been quite a turnaround for the Euro speculator positions in recent weeks as speculators pushed the Euro net positions to an all-time top ten high bullish position on February 10th at a total of 180,305 net contracts. Since that recent high, Euro positions have fallen for six consecutive weeks and by -171,026 net contracts over that time period. This has brought the overall speculator position down from 180,305 bullish positions to this week’s net contract level of just 9,279 contracts. Overall, the Euro position has continuously been in a bullish standing since March 11th of 2025. The Euro price has now fallen below the 1.1600 exchange rate in the Currency markets and has now declined in six out of the last nine weeks and currently trades at the 1.1556 area. The Euro traded as high as 1.2110 late in January before the Iran war broke out and has now come back towards the 1.1500 major support level.

The Canadian Dollar speculative position this week fell by approximately -2,500 contracts and has now fallen three out of the past four weeks. This negative sentiment has brought the Canadian Dollar speculator position back into a small bearish position of -1,602 net positions this week. The Canadian Dollar contracts had been in a strong bearish position for the past few years before seeing a turnaround and rising into bullish bets in early February. That had pushed the bullish position up to as high as +36,159 contracts on March 10th. However, since then, the speculative position has fallen off and culminated in a bearish level this week. The Canadian Dollar in the Currency markets has been on the decline as well and has fallen for three consecutive weeks against the US Dollar. The Canadian Dollar recently bounced to lower levels off the 200-week moving average (CAD traded as high as 0.7431 in late January) and has now trended lower to this week’s close at 0.7225.

The Mexican Peso position rebounded this week with a gain of over 5,500 net contracts. This breaks an eight-week losing streak that had seen the overall net position fall from 103,114 net contracts on January 27th to a total of 68,460 net contracts on March 17th. This week’s gain brings the overall net position back above +70,000 contracts to +74,076 net contracts. Overall, the Mexican Peso has pretty much seen strong bullish speculator positions dating back to March of 2023 through the current period (save for a small bullish positioning streak in late 2024). The Mexican Peso in the Currency markets this week, although, has continued on a decline for five consecutive weeks against the US Dollar. However, overall, the Mexican Peso has been higher against the US Dollar since the beginning of 2025 by approximately 15%.

The US Dollar Index contracts were virtually unchanged this week with a small decline of just 76 contracts. Overall, the US Dollar net positioning has now been in a consecutive bullish position for two weeks straight after seeing a large +9,575 net contract change on March 17th. The US Dollar Index in the Currency markets has now been higher in four out of the past six weeks and trades right around the major 100.00 level, which may determine the currency’s direction in the near and medium term. The US Dollar Index has now rallied by approximately 5% since hitting a low near 95.36 in January.

Brazilian Real and US Dollar Index lead weekly Currency Market Price Performance

The Currency Market Price Performance this week was heavily skewed towards the downside as only two currencies had positive returns over the past five days, while nine currencies had lower prices on the week. The Brazilian Real led the way with a 0.95% increase on the week and was followed by the US Dollar Index, which improved by 0.58%.

On the downside, the biggest loser on the week was Bitcoin, which fell by -5.78%, with the next largest decliner on the week being the Australian Dollar, which fell by -2.14%. The Peso, the Mexican Peso, declined by -1.57%, followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by -1.45%. The Swiss Franc was lower by -1.3%. The Canadian Dollar dipped by -1.22%, while the Japanese Yen decreased by -0.66%. The British Pound Sterling was lower by -0.59%, and the Euro rounds out the decliners on the week with a -0.53% dip.

Over the past 30 days, all of the Currency markets were lower except for the US Dollar Index, which is up by 3.80% over that time period.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (84 percent), Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the US Dollar Index (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (32 percent), the Japanese Yen (33 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (53.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.1 percent)
EuroFX (32.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (36.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (14.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (83.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (84.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (99.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (34.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (38.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (53.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.8 percent)
Bitcoin (97.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.3 percent)

Swiss Franc & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and Bitcoin (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (21 percent), the Brazilian Real (13 percent) and the US Dollar Index (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-14 percent), Japanese Yen (-12 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (11.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (12.3 percent)
EuroFX (-65.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-54.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-13.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-21.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-0.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (24.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-15.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (12.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.4 percent)
Bitcoin (23.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -76 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	29.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	42.3	5.3
– Net Position:	3,617	-4,615	998
– Gross Longs:	20,457	10,652	2,903
– Gross Shorts:	16,840	15,267	1,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.9	44.0	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-18.3	41.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	58.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	64.2	6.2
– Net Position:	9,279	-46,758	37,479
– Gross Longs:	200,025	444,118	84,972
– Gross Shorts:	190,746	490,876	47,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.3	65.3	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-65.1	64.4	-38.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	67.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	42.3	11.9
– Net Position:	-58,422	61,187	-2,765
– Gross Longs:	46,459	162,128	25,772
– Gross Shorts:	104,881	100,941	28,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	84.1	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	18.0	-35.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	51.0	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	33.4	11.1
– Net Position:	-62,806	57,901	4,905
– Gross Longs:	98,271	167,443	41,460
– Gross Shorts:	161,077	109,542	36,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	65.5	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.4	-3.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	72.6	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	31.6	22.1
– Net Position:	-27,097	31,364	-4,267
– Gross Longs:	7,831	55,554	12,634
– Gross Shorts:	34,928	24,190	16,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	50.6	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-10.3	-37.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	44.2	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.0	44.9	15.7
– Net Position:	-1,602	-1,371	2,973
– Gross Longs:	62,382	80,788	31,593
– Gross Shorts:	63,984	82,159	28,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.8	17.3	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	7.6	-11.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 70,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,061 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	31.1	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	67.7	6.4
– Net Position:	70,872	-94,367	23,495
– Gross Longs:	132,629	80,063	39,940
– Gross Shorts:	61,757	174,430	16,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-16.6	-5.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	77.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.2	34.9	6.3
– Net Position:	-27,006	27,694	-688
– Gross Longs:	10,847	50,393	3,403
– Gross Shorts:	37,853	22,699	4,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	65.3	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-6.7	-25.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.3	40.7	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	87.0	1.6
– Net Position:	74,076	-77,232	3,156
– Gross Longs:	92,246	67,758	5,899
– Gross Shorts:	18,170	144,990	2,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	45.8	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	8.1	-5.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 49,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.6	21.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	69.8	0.9
– Net Position:	49,248	-53,067	3,819
– Gross Longs:	75,354	23,593	4,777
– Gross Shorts:	26,106	76,660	958
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	5.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	23.4	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.9	-5.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.2	1.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.1	9.3	5.4
– Net Position:	2,106	-1,949	-157
– Gross Longs:	15,861	224	1,097
– Gross Shorts:	13,755	2,173	1,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	13.2	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-18.5	-13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

26 Mar

GBP/USD Eyes Middle East: Details Matter to the Market

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD traded at 1.3364 on Thursday. The pair declined over the previous two sessions and is now showing signs of a tentative recovery amid expectations of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

The US has reportedly presented Iran with a 15-point settlement plan following discussions about a potential month-long truce. However, Iran has rejected participation in negotiations, stating that US diplomacy cannot be trusted.

In the UK, February inflation figures matched expectations. Headline CPI held steady at 3%, while core inflation edged up slightly to 3.2% against a forecast of 3.1%. However, the data had limited impact on the market, as it reflected conditions prior to the latest escalation in the Middle East.

Against the backdrop of lower oil prices, investors are revising their expectations for Bank of England policy. The market is now pricing in fewer than two rate hikes before year-end, with total expected tightening estimated at approximately 68 basis points, down from nearly 75 basis points previously.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around 1.3354, currently extending up to 1.3434. A decline to 1.3255 is expected in the near term, followed by the formation of a new consolidation range. An upside breakout would pave the way for a continuation wave to 1.3494, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3119. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3355. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3255. Should this level be breached, further downside towards 1.3125 is likely. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range could trigger a growth wave to 1.3494. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is navigating competing forces amid short-term volatility driven by geopolitical headlines. While tentative signs of a potential US–Iran truce have offered some relief to markets, Iran’s rejection of negotiations underscores the fragility of hopes for de-escalation. Meanwhile, UK inflation data – though in line with forecasts – has been largely overlooked given its pre-escalation timeframe. Lower oil prices have prompted markets to scale back expectations for Bank of England tightening, offering modest support for sterling. With technical indicators pointing to continued consolidation and the Middle East situation remaining fluid, the pair’s near-term direction will likely hinge on further geopolitical developments.

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25 Mar

USD/JPY Maintains Growth Mood: Market Sympathies on the US Dollar Side

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY continues its upward trajectory on Wednesday, rising to 158.78 following a volatile start to the week. Pressure on the yen has eased amid a pullback in oil prices and expectations of a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict-a development of particular significance for Japan’s energy-importing economy.

The move comes amid reports of US diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the conflict with Iran. However, scepticism persists in the market, as Tehran had previously denied the existence of any negotiations with Washington.

Additional support for the yen stems from expectations of possible government intervention. Japanese officials have signalled their readiness to take necessary measures to stabilise the currency.

It has also been reported that Japan’s Ministry of Finance is in contact with market participants regarding potential intervention in the oil futures market, given its impact on the yen.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around the 158.60 level. A decline to 157.40 is expected today, followed by an increase to 158.50. Should the market break upwards from this range, a correction towards 160.10 would be relevant to consider. Subsequently, a new downward impulse to 157.40 is anticipated, with the potential for the correction to extend to 156.00.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is below zero and pointing strictly downwards, reflecting the potential for continued correction.

On the H1 chart, the market is shaping a downward wave pattern towards 157.40. Reaching this target level will be considered today. Following the completion of this wave, the development of the next growth wave to 160.10 (test from below) is expected.

The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is below the 50 level and pointing strictly downwards towards 20, indicating that short-term downside potential remains.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains in a growth-oriented mood as easing oil prices and tentative hopes for diplomatic progress in the Middle East offer some relief to the yen. While reports of US-led negotiations with Iran have contributed to a pullback in energy markets, market scepticism persists given Tehran’s earlier denial of talks. Japanese authorities stand ready to intervene should volatility spike, adding an element of caution for traders. Technical indicators point to a short-term correction lower before the broader upward trend potentially resumes towards 160.10. The yen’s trajectory remains closely tied to developments in both energy markets and geopolitical tensions, which continue to shape the Bank of Japan’s policy landscape.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

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