Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 3

GBP Strength Holds Despite Dovish Bank of England Signals

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD shrugged off the impact of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at the ECB forum in Sintra and rose to 1.3287 on Thursday.

Earlier, Bailey confirmed that he had opposed the interest rate increase at the last meeting, citing signs of a slowdown in the British economy.

He also noted that the regulator should exercise greater caution in projecting the future rate path, as overly rigid guidance could limit the flexibility of monetary policy.

Bailey’s comments reinforced expectations of a more cautious approach to future rate decisions, which briefly weighed on the pound. However, the market absorbed the impact quickly.

Technical Analysis


On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the pair is moving towards 1.3300 (a test from below). A broad consolidation range is forming around this level. An upside breakout from the range would open the way for a move towards 1.3350. A downside breakout would suggest a move towards 1.3200, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.2980. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3255, currently extending down to 1.3220. A move higher towards 1.3300 is expected, followed by a decline towards 1.3200. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards towards 80.

Conclusion

Sterling has shown resilience, pushing higher despite Bank of England Governor Bailey’s dovish remarks at the ECB forum. His confirmation that he opposed the last rate hike and his call for more cautious forward guidance initially weighed on the pound. However, the market quickly absorbed these comments, with GBP/USD recovering to trade around 1.3287. The central bank’s cautious tone may limit the pound’s longer-term upside potential, but for now, technical indicators point to further gains towards 1.3300 and potentially 1.3350. The broader direction will depend on upcoming UK economic data and any shifts in Bank of England policy.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD/JPY at 40-Year High: Multiple Factors Weigh on the Yen

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY soared to 162.78 in the middle of the week, reaching its highest level in nearly 40 years.

This sharp move has intensified expectations of possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities to support the national currency.

Particular attention is focused on Friday, when US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day. Low liquidity during such periods traditionally increases the effectiveness of potential interventions, and it was during similar windows that the Bank of Japan previously acted.

Additional pressure on the yen comes from robust US macroeconomic data, which supports expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. At the same time, investors remain doubtful that the Bank of Japan is prepared to accelerate monetary tightening, as the regulator favours a gradual normalisation approach.

The continued appeal of carry trade operations and strong demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset are also weighing on the Japanese currency.

An additional risk factor is Japan’s reliance on oil imports from the Middle East, leaving the economy sensitive to potential disruptions in energy supplies from the region.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 162.55 level and, following an upside breakout, is developing an upward move towards 163.15. This target is expected to be reached today, followed by a decline towards 161.40. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming an upward structure towards 163.15. A correction towards 162.60 may follow, before a further rise to 163.30, with scope for the trend to extend to 163.50. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating that short-term upside potential remains.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has surged to a 40-year high as multiple factors align against the yen. Strong US data continues to support expectations of further Fed rate hikes, while the Bank of Japan remains cautious in its approach to policy normalisation, widening the interest rate differential. The persistent appeal of carry trades and safe-haven demand for the dollar add further pressure, while Japan’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports heightens vulnerability to supply disruptions. Markets are now on high alert for potential intervention, particularly with US markets closed on Friday – a period of low liquidity that has historically increased the likelihood of such actions. Technically, further upside towards 163.15–163.50 appears likely in the near term, although intervention risks remain elevated at these levels.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD: The Advantage Remains with the Dollar

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD began the week trading around 1.1381. The US dollar has maintained its strong position following the hawkish outcome of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting. The updated projections from FOMC members confirmed the central bank’s willingness to continue tightening monetary policy, prompting markets to reassess the interest rate outlook. The probability of a rate hike in July is currently estimated at around 29%, while the likelihood of tightening in September has risen to approximately 60%.

In recent days, however, expectations have become slightly less aggressive. One reason has been the sharp decline in oil prices, which have returned to pre-conflict levels seen before the escalation in the Middle East. Lower oil prices have helped reduce inflationary concerns. Additionally, markets have largely priced in the Fed’s hawkish stance. Further appreciation of the US dollar is therefore likely to require fresh support from robust macroeconomic data, particularly employment and inflation data.

Until the release of these key reports, the dollar is expected to remain well supported. However, in the absence of new catalysts, a period of consolidation or a moderate correction cannot be ruled out. Market attention in the coming days will focus on labour market and inflation data, which will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

The outlook for the euro remains less favourable. Although the European Central Bank continues to pursue a tightening bias, much of the expected policy adjustment has already been priced into the market. Investors currently anticipate around 28 basis points of additional tightening by the end of the year, with the next ECB rate increase not expected before September.

The latest preliminary PMI data confirmed a further easing of inflationary pressures in the euro area, with price growth slowing to its lowest level since February. While business activity remains subdued, the pace of economic deterioration appears to have stabilised. An additional positive signal came from a recent ECB survey, which showed that consumers expect inflation to decline over the next 12 months and anticipate an improvement in economic conditions. While this supports the euro’s longer-term outlook, the near-term advantage remains firmly with the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1405. The range currently extends between 1.1378 and 1.1414. A breakout to the upside could trigger a corrective move towards 1.1470, followed by a potential decline to 1.1385. Conversely, a downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.1315.

The MACD indicator supports the bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting persistent negative momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1414 and is now consolidating below this level. In the short term, the range may extend between 1.1369 and 1.1317, with further downside potential towards 1.1260.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line is currently near 80 and turning sharply lower towards 20, indicating weakening bullish momentum and increasing downside pressure.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance continues to support the US dollar. While falling oil prices and stabilising eurozone data have eased some concerns, investors remain focused on upcoming US employment and inflation reports. Unless these data disappoint significantly, the dollar is likely to retain its advantage in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 23rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (4,028 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (2,685 contracts), the Mexican Peso (2,436 contracts) and Bitcoin (49 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-34,134 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-13,891 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-9,683 contracts), Australian Dollar (-8,887 contracts), the EuroFX (-4,195 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,036 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-269 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators continue to sharply raise British Pound Sterling bearish bets

Highlighting this week’s currencies speculative data is the British Pound Sterling‘s sharp weakness that has pushed the current speculative position to the fourth most bearish level on record. Speculators dropped their British Pound Sterling bets this week by -34,134 contracts, marking the third consecutive week of speculator decreases — and the speculative position has now fallen by over -53,500 contracts in just these past three weeks. This weakness has brought the overall speculator standing to a total of -105,719 standing net contracts. This marks the fourth most bearish level on record and is only less bearish than the levels that were reached for the speculators’ standing in March and April of 2017. The British Pound Sterling speculator bets have now been in bearish territory for 48 consecutive weeks, dating back to July 29th of 2025. In the Forex trading market, the British Pound Sterling dipped for a second consecutive week and is now trading at the bottom of its sideways trading channel near the 1.3200 threshold. The Pound Sterling has been in this sideways trading channel for approximately a year, with the high levels being capped around 1.3800, while the bottom has seen support at 1.3150.

The Canadian Dollar speculator position continues to deteriorate and has now fallen for seven consecutive weeks. This seven-week period has added a total of -132,133 net contracts to the bearish level. This has brought the overall net position to a total of -146,792 contracts in the third consecutive week that has seen the net position with contracts higher than -100,000. The Canadian net speculative position has been in bearish territory for 14 consecutive weeks, following a reprieve from negative bets that spanned from February 3rd to March 17th. That saw positive positions for the Canadian Dollar. This coincided with higher Oil prices, which is a major factor in Canadian exports. Currently, in the Currency markets, the Canadian Dollar has been falling rapidly and has fallen in five out of the previous seven weeks. The Canadian Dollar has broken through its previously ascending triangle pattern that had seen an upward trend line coinciding with the 200-week moving average. This week, the Canadian Dollar fell to its most bearish level since April of 2025 and tested support at 0.7050.

Next up, a currency on the rise has been the US Dollar Index (DX). The Dollar Index saw a dip this week but has risen to multi-month highs in its weekly net speculator standing over the past few weeks. This week, the US Dollar Index saw a dip by a small -269 net contract bets following last week’s strong jump by +11,813 contracts. The standing US Dollar Index net position has now been over +12,000 contracts for a second consecutive week and is at the highest levels since March of 2025. Overall, the US Dollar Index net position standing has now been in bullish or positive territory for 14 out of the past 15 weeks, including the past five weeks in a row. The Dollar Index in the currency trading markets has just recently broken out of its sideways trading band that had sustained for approximately a year. The 100.00 level had provided strong resistance to the currency, but in the last two weeks, the Dollar Index has broken out above and closed this week at 101.12. This marks the highest close since April of 2025. The next level of resistance above for further bullish action is around the 102.50 level, while we could see support for the Dollar Index at the 100.00–100.50 area.

US Dollar Index leads Currency price performances

The Currencies’ price performance this week was led by the US Dollar Index, which rose by 0.43% over the past five days. The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged on the week, followed by the Japanese Yen, which edged down slightly by -0.11%.

Next up, the Swiss Franc also slid by a minuscule amount with a -0.13% decline, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which dipped by -0.16%, and the Brazilian Real, which also was lower by -0.16%. The Euro declined by -0.60% on the week, while the Mexican Peso was down by -0.94%.

The Currencies that fell by over 1% this week were the Australian Dollar, with a dip of -1.51%, followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by -1.55% over the past five days.

The biggest decliner on the week was Bitcoin, which dropped by -5.71%.


Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that  Bitcoin (100 percent) and the US Dollar Index (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent) and the Mexican Peso (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (2 percent), the Japanese Yen (10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.8 percent)
EuroFX (41.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (43.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (21.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (27.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (13.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (53.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (51.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.8 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (99.2 percent)


Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (7 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-56 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-51 percent), British Pound (-25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (26.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.8 percent)
EuroFX (-3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-25.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-19.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-11.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-56.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-50.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-42.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-17.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-18.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (37.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.8 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,197 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.425.69.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.955.23.1
– Net Position:12,928-16,2463,318
– Gross Longs:34,27814,0695,010
– Gross Shorts:21,35030,3151,692
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.012.3100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.3-31.633.3

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,353 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.555.010.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.662.36.9
– Net Position:30,158-57,18327,025
– Gross Longs:247,332431,83781,337
– Gross Shorts:217,174489,02054,312
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.361.431.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.97.5-25.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -105,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -34,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,585 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.778.26.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.336.712.4
– Net Position:-105,719123,431-17,712
– Gross Longs:40,772232,43019,092
– Gross Shorts:146,491108,99936,804
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.07.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.328.4-41.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,132 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.458.511.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.325.510.1
– Net Position:-146,104142,3813,723
– Gross Longs:113,698252,27847,306
– Gross Shorts:259,802109,89743,583
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.586.843.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.517.27.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -1,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,058 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.383.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.231.623.2
– Net Position:-41,09456,495-15,401
– Gross Longs:7,97590,8289,792
– Gross Shorts:49,06934,33325,193
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.6 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.891.613.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.619.9-31.0

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -146,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -13,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,901 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.578.08.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.332.611.5
– Net Position:-146,792155,789-8,997
– Gross Longs:39,429267,56630,351
– Gross Shorts:186,221111,77739,348
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.380.721.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-56.257.3-34.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -8,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,125 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.345.316.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.445.79.6
– Net Position:-13,012-86313,875
– Gross Longs:82,20097,08634,390
– Gross Shorts:95,21297,94920,515
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.948.469.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-50.748.4-27.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -9,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,161 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.784.03.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.828.46.0
– Net Position:-54,84457,522-2,678
– Gross Longs:12,11486,8133,469
– Gross Shorts:66,95829,2916,147
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.298.815.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.918.0-4.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,789 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.639.73.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.278.81.7
– Net Position:74,225-77,6673,442
– Gross Longs:112,38978,7756,786
– Gross Shorts:38,164156,4423,344
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.645.552.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-6.1-8.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,994 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:71.822.24.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.967.21.3
– Net Position:43,679-47,0253,346
– Gross Longs:74,88823,1054,718
– Gross Shorts:31,20970,1301,372
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.3 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.727.739.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.118.7-7.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 49 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,475 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.50.34.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.416.25.9
– Net Position:3,524-3,253-271
– Gross Longs:16,34870935
– Gross Shorts:12,8243,3231,206
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.05.323.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.7-19.9-60.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

GBP/USD Ends the Month with Its Worst Performance in a Year

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair continued to decline against the US dollar on Friday and is set to close June with its worst monthly performance since July last year, trading near 1.3182. Since the start of the month, sterling has lost around 2.2%. Current levels are the lowest since November last year.

Several factors are weighing on the British currency. First, lower oil prices following the easing of tensions between the US and Iran have reduced inflation risks and lowered the likelihood of more aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England. The market now expects only one rate increase before the end of the year, compared with two that were priced in just a few weeks ago.

Domestic UK politics has become an additional source of uncertainty. Following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, investors are awaiting the appointment of a new head of government and, most importantly, a new finance minister. Andy Burnham is seen as the most likely successor, although the composition of the future government’s economic team remains unclear.

The market is closely watching the new cabinet’s staffing decisions. These appointments will shape the country’s future fiscal policy and influence investor sentiment towards British assets.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the market completed a downward wave to 1.3140 and a growth wave towards 1.3217. In practice, a wide consolidation range is forming around 1.3200.

If the pair breaks out of this range to the upside, the potential will open for the wave to continue towards 1.3240. If the pair breaks out to the downside, the potential will open for a continuation of the decline towards 1.3033.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero mark and is pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3180. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.3140. Further growth towards 1.3220 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3060.

The Stochastic oscillator also supports this scenario. Its signal line is below 50 and is pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The Pound Is Pressured Not by Politics, but by a Strong US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair fell to 1.3193 on Wednesday. The British pound came under pressure amid a stronger US dollar and political uncertainty in the UK following the announcement of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation.

Andy Burnham is considered the main contender for the post of head of government and has already received support from several influential figures within the ruling party. Markets are generally taking the prospect of his appointment positively, as investors expect a smooth transfer of power without serious shocks to the economy or financial markets.

The appointment of a new finance minister also remains in focus. Wes Streeting is seen as the favourite for the role. Market participants view him as a more predictable and business-friendly candidate.

Weak macroeconomic data added further pressure on the pound. According to S&P Global, business activity in the UK contracted in June at the fastest pace since April 2025. The composite PMI fell below the 50-point mark, signalling a decline in economic activity. The services sector posted its weakest performance since early 2023.

Against this backdrop, the pound declined against the US dollar, while showing little change against the euro. Investors are assessing the prospects of the new political team and its ability to support the economy. Meanwhile, the UK economy remains close to stagnation.

Technical Analysis


On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the market completed a downward wave to 1.3185. We expect a growth phase towards 1.3200. In practice, a wide consolidation range is forming below this level.

If the pair breaks out of the range to the upside, the potential will open for the wave to continue towards 1.3240. If the pair breaks out to the downside, the potential will open for a continuation of the decline towards 1.3140.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero mark and is pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3222. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.3185. Further growth towards 1.3200 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3140.

The Stochastic oscillator also supports this scenario. Its signal line is below 50 and is pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Remains Under Sellers’ Control as the Dollar Stays Strong

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair traded near 1.1430 on Tuesday. The US dollar is refreshing its highs from March 2026, supported by expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, as well as cautious optimism surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran.

An additional factor for the markets was Washington’s decision to grant Tehran a temporary 60-day licence to export oil to global markets. This move strengthened expectations of a gradual recovery in global crude supply and was seen as a sign of progress in talks between the two sides.

The Federal Reserve remains the key focus for investors. After the hawkish signals delivered at the June meeting, markets continue to price in the probability of a rate hike as early as September. Major banks, including Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, have also revised their forecasts in favour of additional monetary policy tightening.

This week’s key event will be the release of the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The report may provide fresh signals about the persistence of price pressure in the US economy and influence expectations for the future path of interest rates.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around 1.1444 today. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.1418 and upwards to 1.1440. If the pair breaks out of this range to the upside, a corrective wave towards 1.1470 may develop. After that, a decline towards 1.1385 is expected.

If the pair breaks directly to the downside, the potential will open for a downward wave towards 1.1315.

Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below the zero level and is pointing firmly downwards, reflecting a persistent bearish impulse with potential for the downtrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of another growth wave towards 1.1449. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming below this level. Today, the range may expand downwards to 1.1409 and upwards to 1.1444. After that, a decline towards 1.1385 is expected.

The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario: its signal line is below 50 and is pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Loses Ground as Market Sentiment Favours the US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD fell on Friday to its lowest level since 31 March 2026 and is holding near 1.1457. The US dollar is being supported by rapidly growing expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening following more hawkish-than-expected signals from the regulator.

This week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged. However, the updated forecasts showed that half of FOMC members still see at least one rate hike as possible in the future. At the same time, the regulator raised its inflation projections, taking into account the impact of the recent conflict in the Middle East.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not provide the market with clear guidance on the next interest rate decision. However, he confirmed that bringing inflation back to the target level remains the US central bank’s priority.

Meanwhile, the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran has officially come into force. This helped reduce geopolitical tensions and pushed oil prices lower.

However, the market continues to focus more on the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy than on the improved foreign policy backdrop. This is providing strong support for demand for the US dollar.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market formed a consolidation range around 1.1467 today. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.1417 and upwards to 1.1450. If the price breaks out of this range to the upside, a corrective wave towards 1.1590 is expected. After that, a decline to 1.1385 may follow. If the price breaks out directly to the downside, the potential will open for a downward wave towards 1.1313. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero and directed firmly downwards, reflecting the persisting bearish momentum and the potential for the downtrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of another growth wave towards 1.1480. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming below this level. Today, the relevant scenario suggests a possible expansion of the range downwards to 1.1414 and upwards to 1.1444, followed by a decline to 1.1385. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is below 20. A rise towards 50 is expected, followed by a firm downward move back towards 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

GBPUSD Awaits Bank of England Meeting Near April Lows

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBPUSD is attempting to stabilise near 1.3317 on Thursday morning.

The pound sterling barely reacted on Wednesday to weaker-than-expected UK inflation data. Investors preferred to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of today’s labour market statistics and the Bank of England meeting. However, GBP still had to respond to movements in the US dollar following the Federal Reserve meeting.

Inflation in May remained at 2.8% y/y, while the market had expected it to accelerate to 3.0%. The weaker-than-forecast data revived the debate over whether the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates at all this year.

Market participants are still pricing in one rate hike before the end of the year. However, if the regulator signals that it is ready to maintain the current policy stance without taking additional steps, this could increase pressure on the British currency.

The Bank of England meeting itself is expected to end with no change in the interest rate. Nevertheless, some members of the Monetary Policy Committee, including Chief Economist Huw Pill, may once again vote in favour of tighter policy. This will be closely watched by the market.

Investors will also pay close attention to employment data, which will serve as an important reference point for the Bank of England’s future decisions. At the same time, the market is monitoring political developments in the UK, as possible changes within the ruling Labour Party could add a political risk premium to the pound.

For now, GBP remains relatively stable. However, the next 24 hours may prove decisive for expectations regarding the Bank of England’s interest rate path and the further dynamics of the British currency.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the market has completed a downward wave to 1.3262. A growth link towards 1.3340 is expected. In practice, a broad consolidation range is forming below this level. If the price breaks out of the range upwards, the potential will open for the wave to continue towards 1.3500. If the price breaks out downwards, the potential will open for a further decline towards 1.3194. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero and directed firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart of GBPUSD, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3300. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.3297. Further growth towards 1.3340 is expected. Technically, this scenario is also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is above 50 and directed firmly upwards towards 80.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USDJPY Driven by Emotions: Bank of Japan Raises Rate to Highest Level Since 1995

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USDJPY pair declined to 160.13 on Tuesday after two highly volatile trading sessions. Investors remain focused on the Bank of Japan’s latest policy meeting.

The regulator raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.0%, the highest level since 1995. This move is intended to help contain inflation and support the national currency, which has remained under pressure for most of the year.

In recent weeks, the yen has been actively used in carry trade operations: investors borrowed funds in the low-yielding Japanese currency and invested them in higher-yielding assets. This increased pressure on the JPY despite the Bank of Japan’s gradual policy tightening and repeated currency interventions by Tokyo.

The main reason behind the yen’s weakness remains the significant interest rate gap between Japan and the US. As long as US rates remain substantially higher than Japanese rates, the dollar retains a structural advantage.

The market is also closely watching developments in the Middle East.

Investors expect the US and Iran to sign an agreement in Switzerland at the end of the week. If the deal is reached and leads to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it could ease tensions in global markets and reduce demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar.

USDJPY Technical Analysis


On the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed a consolidation range around 160.20. After breaking upwards, the pair is developing a growth wave structure towards 161.50. Today, we expect this target to be reached, followed by a decline towards 160.30. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting potential for the continuation of the growth wave.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a growth structure towards 160.51. After that, a correction towards 160.20 may be considered. The pair is then expected to rise towards 160.70, with the potential to continue the trend towards 161.50.

This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is above 50 and moving firmly upwards towards 80, indicating that short-term upside potential remains intact.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.