Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 19

The Yen Halts Its Decline, but Domestic Signals Remain Negative

The USD/JPY pair stabilised at 145.11 following three consecutive days of gains.

The Japanese yen had previously faced downward pressure due to a combination of factors, including weak macroeconomic data. Japan’s exports declined for the first time in eight months, indicating that the impact of US tariffs is now being felt. Meanwhile, imports fell more sharply than anticipated, heightening concerns over weakening external demand.

Other indicators painted a similarly bleak picture. Machinery orders dropped significantly in April, while industrial sentiment deteriorated in June. These developments suggest that signs of softening domestic demand are increasingly apparent.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held a meeting the previous day, leaving interest rates unchanged and reaffirming its cautious approach to reducing balance sheet assets. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasised that the central bank is closely monitoring economic conditions and global trade dynamics, leaving open the possibility of future rate hikes.

Additional pressure on the yen came from the lack of progress at the G7 summit in Canada, where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump failed to reach an agreement on tariff cooperation.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The market has completed an upward wave to the upper boundary of the consolidation range at 145.43. Having reached this target, a decline towards 144.00 is now anticipated. A break below this level could open the door for a further drop towards 142.20, with the potential to extend the downtrend to 140.50. Conversely, an upward move would raise the likelihood of a rally towards 146.98. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and has exited the histogram area. A downward correction with new lows on the indicator is likely to follow.

H1 Chart:

The market is forming a bearish wave structure targeting 144.00, which is likely to be reached today. Following this, a corrective rebound towards 144.80 may occur. Overall, price action continues to develop within a broad consolidation range at these levels. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line positioned below 20 and pointing sharply downward.

Conclusion

While the yen’s decline has paused, domestic economic signals remain unfavourable. With weak trade data, cautious BoJ policy, and stalled international negotiations, the currency faces ongoing headwinds. Technically, the USD/JPY pair shows potential for further downside, though a corrective rebound cannot be ruled out.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Jun

EUR/USD rises as the US dollar struggles to hold ground

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair continues its gradual climb, reaching 1.1562 on Tuesday despite local support for the US dollar stemming from renewed geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitics and Fed expectations in focus

The greenback experienced a temporary surge in demand as tensions escalated in the Middle East, prompting a rise in safe-haven assets. This followed US President Donald Trump’s call for the complete evacuation of Tehran and renewed pressure on Iran to accept his nuclear deal proposal.

Meanwhile, market attention has now shifted to the Federal Reserve meeting, which begins today and concludes on Wednesday evening. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors are seeking fresh forward guidance, especially given the recent softening of expectations for future rate cuts.

Persistent inflation concerns, driven by elevated oil prices and lingering uncertainty in the trade sector, are further shaping sentiment.

Today’s key macroeconomic releases include US retail sales and industrial production figures for May, while in the eurozone, the focus is on the ZEW economic expectations index for June.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range at the top of the upward trend. A possible expansion towards 1.1645 cannot be excluded. Subsequently, a decline towards the lower boundary of the range at 1.1490 is anticipated. A break below 1.1490 would open the path for a new downward wave towards 1.1275, which is the first main target. The MACD indicator supports this outlook – its signal line remains above zero but has exited the histogram zone and is expected to descend back to the zero line, confirming a weakening upward impulse.

On the H1 chart, the market is consolidating around the 1.1570 level. The local growth target at 1.1614 has already been fulfilled, followed by a technical retest of 1.1542 from above. The next expected move is a growth link to 1.1645. A broad consolidation range around 1.1570 continues to take shape. The main scenario anticipates a decline towards 1.1456 once the growth structure is complete. This view is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and heading sharply towards 80, indicating room for further short-term upside before a reversal.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains supported in the short term amid geopolitical uncertainty and softening Fed rate expectations, with key resistance at 1.1645 and support at 1.1490 and 1.1456. A sustained break below these levels could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.1275. For now, technical signals indicate a continuation of the consolidation phase, with one more upward impulse likely before a reversal sets in.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Jun

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Levels show where open contracts are in the markets.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (16,419 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (15,303 contracts), the EuroFX (10,261 contracts), the Brazilian Real (8,508 contracts), the Swiss Franc (4,798 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,439 contracts), the US Dollar Index (785 contracts) and also Bitcoin (303 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,789 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-6,554 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-1,723 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

Currency Data Highlights this week include the Euro and the British pound sterling seeing stronger speculator positioning that has pushed the overall net positions to multi-month highs.

Euro FX Positions rise to 40-week high
– Euro positions rose by over 10,000 contracts this week, marking the fourth increase in the last six weeks.
– Speculators’ Euro positions have risen for 13 out of the last 17 weeks, totaling a change of +157,450 contracts over that time-frame.
– The Euro positions have increased from negative contracts in mid-February to over 93,000 contracts this week, the highest level for Euro speculators since September 3, 2024, when the net position was over 100,000 contracts.

British Pound Sterling
– British Pound Sterling contracts jumped by over 16,000 positions this week.
– Speculator bets on the Pound Sterling have risen in 5 out of the last 8 weeks, totaling over +45,000 contracts in that period.
– The Pound Sterling speculator position is currently at its highest level since November with the current standing above the 50,000 contract level.

Canadian Dollar
– Canadian Dollar speculator bets increased by over 15,000 contracts this week.
– The overall standing for the Canadian Dollar, however, remains bearish at -93,140 contracts level.

Japanese Yen
– The Japanese Yen contracts fell by over 6,000 contracts this week as yen speculator bets have been cooling off.
– The Yen position has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks after reaching an all-time high in April above +179,000 contracts.

Swiss Franc
– Swiss Franc contracts rose by almost 5,000 contracts this week.
– Over the last 10 weeks, Swiss Franc positions have improved in 7 out of the last 10 weeks, reducing the overall bearish level by almost half (from approximately -42,000 to -21,000 contracts).

U.S. Dollar Index
– The U.S. Dollar index positions slightly improved this week and have now risen for five straight weeks (following declines in 8 out of previous 11 weeks)
– The current standing is currently still a small, bullish position of just +1,402 net contracts.

Market Price Changes this week:

Currency markets saw the euro and Swiss franc both rise by over 1%. The Mexican peso, Bitcoin, and the Canadian dollar each gained nearly 1%. The Brazilian real, Japanese yen, and British pound all increased by around 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar index, however, was the week’s biggest loser, dropping nearly 1%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (90 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (64 percent), Mexican Peso (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Bitcoin (7 percent) and the US Dollar Index (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (9.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.0 percent)
EuroFX (64.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (60.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (90.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (92.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (57.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (26.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.5 percent)
Bitcoin (7.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.9 percent)

British Pound & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (13 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (6 percent), the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and the Mexican Peso (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-17 percent), the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-7.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-23.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-15.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-32.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	24.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	24.1	12.1
– Net Position:	1,402	-35	-1,367
– Gross Longs:	17,027	7,344	2,345
– Gross Shorts:	15,625	7,379	3,712
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	93.9	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-3.2	-3.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 93,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	55.4	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	74.1	5.5
– Net Position:	93,025	-151,256	58,231
– Gross Longs:	208,754	449,157	102,489
– Gross Shorts:	115,729	600,413	44,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	29.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.7	5.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	28.4	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	56.7	12.7
– Net Position:	51,634	-60,562	8,928
– Gross Longs:	111,076	60,665	36,199
– Gross Shorts:	59,442	121,227	27,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	38.8	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-12.8	6.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 144,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	34.0	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	77.6	7.6
– Net Position:	144,595	-169,077	24,482
– Gross Longs:	184,195	132,044	54,124
– Gross Shorts:	39,600	301,121	29,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	8.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	8.3	4.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	62.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	39.7	17.7
– Net Position:	-21,268	19,842	1,426
– Gross Longs:	9,240	54,331	16,806
– Gross Shorts:	30,508	34,489	15,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	31.9	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-8.8	10.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	77.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	45.8	8.9
– Net Position:	-93,143	91,207	1,936
– Gross Longs:	19,651	223,285	27,489
– Gross Shorts:	112,794	132,078	25,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	52.3	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	6.7	28.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	68.5	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	40.0	9.2
– Net Position:	-69,944	63,770	6,174
– Gross Longs:	23,997	153,541	26,785
– Gross Shorts:	93,941	89,771	20,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	68.0	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	8.9	13.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	73.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	47.6	5.2
– Net Position:	-21,235	20,783	452
– Gross Longs:	9,312	58,294	4,562
– Gross Shorts:	30,547	37,511	4,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	57.5	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.6	2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.8	31.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	68.3	1.8
– Net Position:	62,726	-65,910	3,184
– Gross Longs:	99,017	57,439	6,351
– Gross Shorts:	36,291	123,349	3,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	40.3	40.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.3	6.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.5	29.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	75.0	1.0
– Net Position:	39,301	-42,872	3,571
– Gross Longs:	61,321	28,434	4,511
– Gross Shorts:	22,020	71,306	940
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	22.2	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	22.2	7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.9	7.3	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.5	1.5	4.2
– Net Position:	-2,009	1,741	268
– Gross Longs:	24,781	2,198	1,529
– Gross Shorts:	26,790	457	1,261
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	95.4	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	18.4	-2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 Jun

USD/JPY continues to climb: the yen loses its safe-haven appeal

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair remains in an uptrend, trading around 145.00 on Wednesday and nearing a two-week low for the yen. The Japanese currency is under continued pressure as demand for safe-haven assets fades, fuelled by growing optimism over US-China trade negotiations.

Trade optimism undermines yen demand

Positive signals from the US-China trade talks have eased market tensions. After two days of meetings, both delegations described the dialogue as productive, with discussions expected to continue today. Reports suggest that diplomats have reached a preliminary agreement on implementing the Geneva Consensus. Under the agreement, China could ease export restrictions on rare earth metals, while the US might loosen controls on advanced technology sales to China.

This improving external backdrop has diminished the appeal of the yen as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the continued strength of the dollar against it.

Domestically, Japan’s producer price inflation rose 3.2% y/y in May, marking the slowest growth in eight months. This suggests easing cost pressures in production, which could reduce the urgency for aggressive monetary tightening.

Still, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed in parliament on Tuesday that the central bank remains prepared to implement a new rate hike, provided there is confidence in the sustainability of core inflation around the 2% target.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is moving upwards from support at 144.00, targeting 145.50, which is expected to be reached today. After hitting this level, a pullback to 144.00 is anticipated. Should the pair break below 144.00, the next move may extend to 142.20, with the possibility of continuing further to 140.50. A breakout above 145.50 would open the door to 146.25. The MACD indicator supports the bullish view, with its signal line above zero and pointing sharply upwards within the histogram zone.

On the H1 chart, the pair is building an upward wave structure towards 145.50, which is likely to be fulfilled today. A corrective move to 144.00 is expected to follow. The pair remains in a broad consolidation range around these levels. The Stochastic oscillator also confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and heading towards 80, indicating continued upward momentum in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to rise as risk appetite grows, and trade-related optimism diminishes the appeal of the yen. While positive domestic data and a willing BoJ support the yen longer term, the near-term technical setup remains bullish. Key resistance lies at 145.50 and 146.25, while a potential pullback could find support at 144.00, with deeper levels at 142.20 and 140.50 if the trend reverses.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jun

US Dollar faces pivotal week: politics and economic data in focus

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD opened the week steady, trading near 1.1418, as markets brace for a series of key economic reports and political developments.

Markets eye trade talks and macro indicators

Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of the US-China trade meeting, set to take place in London today, following President Donald Trump’s announcement last week. Hopes for progress in trade negotiations are helping stabilise the market mood.

On the economic front, a heavy data calendar lies ahead. Markets are closely watching the release of several US macroeconomic indicators:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday
Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday

These reports are expected to provide clearer insights into the effects of tariffs on inflation and the overall direction of the US economy.

Last Friday, the US dollar gained strength following an upbeat employment report for May, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth. However, the broader picture remains mixed, with recent readings on private employment, unemployment claims, and the services PMI pointing to ongoing economic fragility.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has reached the growth wave target at 1.1494. A correction phase is currently unfolding, with the first target at 1.1365. After touching this level, a rebound to 1.1438 is possible. This could be followed by a new downward wave towards 1.1275, with a longer-term prospect of a decline to 1.1210. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing sharply downwards, indicating a shift towards bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed the first downward wave, reaching a local target at 1.1372. A corrective bounce to 1.1438 (a test from below) is now on the radar. This move will determine whether EUR/USD resumes its upward correction or extends its decline.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is entering a critical week, with US economic data and trade talks in the spotlight. A corrective move to 1.1438 appears likely in the short term, but further downside towards 1.1365, 1.1275, and 1.1210 remains on the table depending on data outcomes and broader risk sentiment. Technical indicators suggest a shift in momentum, with consolidation and correction likely before the next directional move.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jun

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (3,290 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,047 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (712 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (703 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-16,046 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,863 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,548 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-1,975 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-583 contracts), the British Pound (-164 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-38 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

Highlighting the Currency Speculator data this week, was a bounce back into bullish territory for the U.S. Dollar Index. This week’s data marks the first bullish level in the past seven weeks as speculators have now advanced their weekly bullish bets modestly for a fourth straight week.

The U.S. Dollar has been on the defensive against most of the other major currencies this year and the Dollar Index price has fallen under the significant psychological level of 100.00 for the first time since July of 2023. The U.S. Dollar is currently down approximately 10% since the beginning of the new year coinciding with a dip in speculator sentiment as well.

Roundup: Currency Speculator Positioning

Japanese Yen: – Speculators pulled back somewhat sharply in the latest data (-12,863 contracts). The yen continues to have an extreme bullish strength score with the speculator position near the top of its range of over +151,000 net contracts.
Brazilian Real: – Speculators dropped their bullish bets also relatively sharply in the latest data. The BRL is coming off of a record high speculator position in the past couple of months.
Euro: – The 2nd most bullish currency (after the yen) with a net position of over 80,000 contracts. The Euro has advanced by over 11% this year and the price trend has been mostly consolidating between the 1.12 – 1.15 area in recent weeks.
Mexican Peso: – The Peso continues to be in a bullish position, near +65,000 contracts after a gain of 3,000 contracts this week.
British Pound Sterling: Rounds out the bullish currencies with a +35,000 net speculator contract position. The GBP has gained by over 10% this year and is now trading at the highest level since 2022 above 1.3500.
Swiss Franc: The CHF remains in a bearish net position despite the strength of its currency which has risen over 10% this year. The CHF trades near the highest levels since 2015.
New Zealand and Australian Dollars: – These currencies continue to have negative net speculator positions, although both currencies have seen their prices on the uptrend since the beginning of the new year.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance:

– The Brazilian Real rose by over 2.35% in the past 5 days.
– The Mexican Peso was up by 1.5%.
– The Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Euro, the British Pound, the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar all were higher by less than 1%.
– The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a small decline on the week.
– Bitcoin was also virtually unchanged, while the Japanese Yen fell by -0.5%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (92 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the EuroFX (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Bitcoin (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.5 percent)
EuroFX (60.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (59.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (92.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (95.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.6 percent)
Bitcoin (0.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.7 percent)

Mexican Peso, GBP & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (12 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) and the US Dollar Index (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (6.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (7.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-7.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-9.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-6.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-32.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-62.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.2	28.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	25.2	13.2
– Net Position:	617	968	-1,585
– Gross Longs:	15,748	8,021	2,123
– Gross Shorts:	15,131	7,053	3,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	96.0	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-2.0	-7.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 82,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	56.0	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	73.7	5.8
– Net Position:	82,764	-138,285	55,521
– Gross Longs:	202,786	437,677	100,625
– Gross Shorts:	120,022	575,962	45,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	34.1	96.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-6.9	5.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	31.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	52.9	9.9
– Net Position:	35,215	-48,965	13,750
– Gross Longs:	103,672	74,588	36,963
– Gross Shorts:	68,457	123,553	23,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	43.6	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-9.7	18.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 151,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	27.4	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	75.3	5.5
– Net Position:	151,149	-175,508	24,359
– Gross Longs:	189,514	100,151	44,497
– Gross Shorts:	38,365	275,659	20,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	6.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.4	2.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	63.8	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	32.0	18.7
– Net Position:	-26,066	25,884	182
– Gross Longs:	7,145	51,879	15,409
– Gross Shorts:	33,211	25,995	15,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	41.7	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-1.4	6.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -108,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	79.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	38.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-108,446	110,625	-2,179
– Gross Longs:	18,667	214,704	23,967
– Gross Shorts:	127,113	104,079	26,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	60.5	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	15.9	10.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	64.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	34.3	10.5
– Net Position:	-63,155	61,195	1,960
– Gross Longs:	23,969	130,735	23,307
– Gross Shorts:	87,124	69,540	21,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.4	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.4	-5.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,386 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	41.1	6.4
– Net Position:	-23,674	23,601	73
– Gross Longs:	9,531	51,514	4,419
– Gross Shorts:	33,205	27,913	4,346
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	60.7	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-4.3	8.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	32.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	72.4	2.1
– Net Position:	64,449	-66,946	2,497
– Gross Longs:	93,401	55,198	6,108
– Gross Shorts:	28,952	122,144	3,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	39.8	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-12.6	7.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.3	30.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	70.6	1.0
– Net Position:	30,793	-33,919	3,126
– Gross Longs:	54,954	26,403	4,014
– Gross Shorts:	24,161	60,322	888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	29.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	14.2	7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.9	8.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.7	1.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,312	1,949	363
– Gross Longs:	24,084	2,407	1,341
– Gross Shorts:	26,396	458	978
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	5.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	29.8	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 Jun

Week Ahead: USDJPY set for volatile price swings?

By ForexTime

Yen expected to be the most volatile in G10 space vs USD
Ongoing US-Japan talks, geopolitics & data could rock JPY
Over the past year US CPI triggered moves of ↑ 0.7% & ↓ 1.7%
Bloomberg FX model: USDJPY has 72% of trading within 141.26 – 146.52 over 1-week period
Technical level: 142.30 & 145.00

Even as we await the US jobs report later today (Friday, 6 June), investors are keenly aware of the string of key data points over the coming week.

The Japanese Yen is expected to be the most volatile G10 currency versus the USD over the next one-week.

This could be based on ongoing US-Japan trade talks, geopolitical risk and high-impact economic data.

And these key data releases from major economies could present fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead:

Sunday, 7th June

CNH: China forex reserves
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
JPY: BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida speech
Fed’s pre-decision communications blackout

Monday, 9th June

CN50: China trade, CPI, PPI
JPY: Japan GDP (final), current account
TWN: Taiwan trade
RUS2000: US wholesale inventories

Tuesday, 10th June

AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business confidence
JPY: Japan money stock
ZAR: South Africa manufacturing
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment

Wednesday, 11th June

JPY: Japan PPI
USDInd: US May CPI, federal budget balance
GBP: UK government spending review 2025

Thursday, 12th June

UK100: Monthly GDP, UK industrial production, trade
US500: US PPI, jobless claims

Friday, 13th June

EU50: Eurozone industrial production
GER40: Germany CPI
JPY: Japan tertiary industry, industrial production (final)
NZD: New Zealand Business manufacturing PMI
USDInd: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

At the time of writing, the Yen is the worst-performing G10 currency versus the USD month-to-date, barely moving against the greenback.

Indeed, prices have been trapped within a range on the daily timeframe with support at 142.30 and resistance at 145.00.

A breakout could be on the horizon, but this may require a fresh fundamental catalyst.

Here is what you need to know:

1) Ongoing US-Japan trade talks

Japan and the United States have been engaged in trade talks since mid-April following Trump’s liberation day tariffs.

The country has been hit with a 25% tariff on autos and parts, a 10% universal tariff that will rise to 24% in early July, in addition to Trump’s 50% tariff on steel and aluminum.

This week, Japan’s top trade negotiator met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Any positive news or signs that a deal could be reached may boost sentiment toward the Japanese economy, supporting the Yen.
Should talks drag on with no sign of a deal being reached, this fuel concerns over Japan’s economic outlook – hitting the Yen as a result.

2) BoJ deputy governor speech + Japan economic data

Over the weekend, a speech by the BoJ deputy governor may provide some clues about future policy moves.

To be clear, the incoming data from Japan will be the most finalized estimates, so this market reaction may be muted. However, any major upside or downside surprises could spark some action and influence BoJ rate expectations.

Traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a 25-basis point BoJ hike by the end of 2025.

3) US May CPI report

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) that will be published on Wednesday, 11th June, could influence Fed cut bets.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (May 2024 vs. May 2025) is expected to rise 2.5% from 2.3%.
Core CPI year-on-year to rise 2.9% from 2.8%.
CPI month-on-month (May 2025 vs April 2025) to remain unchanged at 0.2%
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.2% in the prior month

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.7% or declines of 1.7% in a 6-hour window post-release.

A hotter-than-expected US CPI print could push the USDJPY higher as Fed cut bets cool.
Should the inflation report print below forecasts, this may drag the USDJPY lower.

Traders are currently pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the odds of a third one at 20%.

4) Technical forces

The USDJPY remains in a range on the daily charts with key support at 142.30 and resistance at 145.00. Prices are trading below the 200, 100 and 50-day SMA.

A breakout and daily close above the 50-day SMA at 144.60, may open a path toward 145.00 and 146.52– the upper limit of the Bloomberg FX model.
Sustained weakness below 143.00 could trigger a selloff back toward support at 142.30 and 141.26 – the lower limit of the Bloomberg FX model.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 72% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 141.26 – 146.52 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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06 Jun

Japanese yen weakens as markets await US employment data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair rose to 143.80 on Friday, marking a second consecutive day of yen depreciation. The decline comes as traders adopt a wait-and-see stance ahead of a key report on US employment figures.

Market cautious ahead of NFP; political factors also in play

Investors are focused on the imminent US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which may influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. In the meantime, the market has turned cautious, favouring the US dollar.

Political developments have also contributed. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a telephone conversation and agreed to continue trade negotiations. However, no concrete outcomes or details were disclosed, offering only limited clarity to the geopolitical picture.

Weak domestic data adds pressure on the yen

On the domestic front, Japan posted an unexpected decline in consumer spending for April. Household spending fell by 0.1% y/y, reversing the 1.4% growth in March and missing the 1.0% increase forecast. The drop highlights the impact of rising prices on domestic demand, adding to uncertainty over the pace of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary tightening.

Nonetheless, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank remains prepared to raise interest rates if the economic and inflation outlook warrants it. The BoJ continues to pursue a measured yet steady approach to policy normalisation.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to consolidate around 143.33. The current move is heading towards 144.23. A downward breakout from this range would pave the way for a decline to 142.20, with a possible extension to 140.50. Conversely, an upward breakout could trigger a bullish move towards 146.25. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply upwards, indicating growing bullish potential.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around 143.33. The structure features a completed growth wave to 143.96, followed by a correction (test from above) to 143.33. The next likely move is an upward push to 144.23, expected to occur today. This may then be followed by a decline to 142.20 and potentially further to 140.50. The Stochastic oscillator supports this setup, with its signal line above 50 and trending towards 80, indicating strong short-term buying pressure.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure amid cautious market positioning ahead of US labour data and lingering trade-related uncertainty. Meanwhile, weak Japanese spending data raises questions over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike. Technically, 144.23 is the next key resistance, while 142.20 and 140.50 serve as potential support levels in the event of a reversal. The market’s direction will likely hinge on the outcome of the US NFP report.

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04 Jun

GBP/USD holds near three-year high as pound shows resilience

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair remains steady around 1.3515, maintaining its strength after reaching a three-year high on 26 May. The British pound has shown greater stability than other major currencies amid rising geopolitical and economic pressures.

Pound supported by global tensions and domestic optimism

Ongoing trade tensions between the US and China continue to weigh on market sentiment, indirectly supporting the pound. President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminium triggered an intense backlash from China, which accused the US of breaching the recent trade deal and threatened to retaliate.

At the same time, optimism about the British economy is helping to sustain demand for the pound. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded the UK’s 2025 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.1%. However, it also warned Chancellor Rachel Reeves of the need to exercise strict fiscal discipline ahead of her budget presentation on 11 June.

Inflation remains elevated, particularly in the food sector, where prices rose by 4.1% in May – the highest increase since February 2024. According to Kantar, this has prompted UK consumers to seek more discounts and shift towards cheaper brands.

Due to persistent inflation, the market is currently pricing in only a 40-basis-point rate cut from the Bank of England this year.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD continues to develop the fifth wave of growth towards 1.3648. The market is consolidating near 1.3515 and is expected to break upwards towards 1.3616, with the wave potentially extending to 1.3648. If the market breaks downwards, a further correction to 1.3400 is possible before resuming growth. The MACD indicator confirms the bullish scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD formed a consolidation range around 1.3515 and broke upwards, nearly hitting the local target of 1.3559. The market is now undergoing a correction, targeting 1.3489. Once this pullback is complete, the next growth wave may reach 1.3583. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line below 50 and heading sharply downwards towards 20, suggesting room for a short-term dip before renewed upward momentum.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains firm near multi-year highs, supported by a mix of global trade tensions, domestic economic optimism, and elevated inflation. Technically, the outlook remains bullish, with key targets at 1.3583, 1.3616 and 1.3648. Support levels are at 1.3489 and 1.3400 in the event of a pullback. The pound’s relative stability continues to position it as one of the more resilient major currencies in the current environment.

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03 Jun

EUR/USD set to rise as sentiment turns against the US dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1418 before pausing, as bearish sentiment towards the US dollar intensified following the release of disappointing US macroeconomic data and escalating trade tensions.

The dollar is under pressure from weak data and trade uncertainty

The dollar came under renewed pressure after the release of weaker-than-expected US manufacturing activity data for May, which pointed to a deeper-than-anticipated slowdown. These figures indicate that economic risks remain elevated, particularly amid continued trade policy uncertainty under President Donald Trump.

Trump’s recent decision to raise steel import tariffs to 50% sparked fresh concerns and drew sharp criticism from major trading partners, further heightening investor unease.

Tensions with China have also escalated, with Beijing rejecting Trump’s accusations of violating the interim trade deal and vowing retaliatory measures to defend its interests.

Looking ahead, markets will closely monitor a series of US macroeconomic releases due on Tuesday, including job openings, durable goods orders, and factory orders – all of which will help assess the health of the US economy.

The eurozone is also set to publish preliminary inflation data for May, which may influence euro sentiment. However, for now, investors remain optimistic about EUR/USD. Barring any surprises, the pair appears well-supported.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is extending the fifth wave of growth towards 1.1485. The market has already met the local target at 1.1450, and a short-term correction to 1.1380 is expected next. Once this pullback concludes, a final push towards 1.1485 is likely, marking the end of the current growth wave. From there, a new downward phase may begin, with a target at 1.1210. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing sharply upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range around 1.1350, broke to the upside, and completed the growth structure, reaching a local target of 1.1450 within the fifth wave. A correction to 1.1380 is anticipated, followed by another growth wave towards 1.1485. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below 20 and preparing to rise towards 80, signalling a potential bullish continuation after the correction.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains well-positioned for further gains amid mounting US economic concerns and renewed trade tensions. The pair has short-term support at 1.1380 and faces resistance at 1.1485. A reversal could occur once the current growth wave is exhausted, with 1.1210 as a longer-term downside target. For now, technical indicators and market sentiment continue to point to further upside, particularly if upcoming US data confirms a weakening economic outlook.

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