Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 19

GBP/USD Tumbles: Investors Lose Confidence in UK Fiscal Sustainability

The GBP/USD pair declined to 1.3366 on Wednesday, reflecting intensified selling pressure on the pound. Sterling’s weakness stems from a sharp rise in UK government bond yields and broader global concerns regarding fiscal stability.

The yield on 30-year gilts climbed to 5.695%, marking its highest level in 25 years. This surge highlights mounting borrowing costs and raises the risk of a debt spiral. Higher yields increase debt-servicing expenses, potentially forcing the government to borrow additional funds and further pushing yields upward.

Amid a broader sell-off in debt markets, the pound has depreciated by over 1% within 24 hours, with losses continuing into mid-week. The situation evokes memories of the Liz Truss crisis, which severely eroded confidence in the UK’s fiscal management. Markets now question whether the government can effectively address the budget deficit and curb debt accumulation without implementing stringent reforms.

Pressure on the pound is mounting from two key directions: deteriorating investor confidence in UK fiscal sustainability and a global bond market rout driven by rising debt burdens across major economies.

In the coming weeks, the government’s response to mounting criticism and upcoming budget announcements will be critical for the sterling. These statements will indicate whether policymakers are prepared to adjust their fiscal course.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 chart:

GBP/USD completed a downward wave towards the 1.3340 USD level. A corrective wave towards the breached support level of 1.3420 USD – now likely to act as resistance – may follow. Once this correction concludes, the pair could resume its decline, with initial support expected at 1.3340 USD, followed by a further drop towards 1.3283 USD, where another corrective wave may form. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where both the histogram and signal line remain below zero and continue trending downward.

H1 chart:

The pair tested the 1.3340 USD level and is forming a corrective wave. The pullback may target resistance at 1.3420 USD, where a rejection could trigger a resumption of the downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view: having failed to reach the 50.0 level, its signal lines are declining towards 20.0, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Sterling faces intense pressure from both domestic fiscal concerns and global bond market dynamics. Technically, the pair remains in a downtrend, with any near-term corrections likely to be short-lived. The UK government’s upcoming fiscal announcements will be crucial in determining whether confidence can be restored or if further declines lie ahead.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Sep

EUR/USD Gains Ground Amid Fresh Doubts Over the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1704 on Monday. The US dollar is trading near one-month lows as the market awaits a series of US labour market reports. These figures could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.

The key event will be Friday’s August employment report, alongside data on the unemployment rate, job openings, and private sector employment.

Investors continue to assess Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. It confirmed rising prices and heightened uncertainty regarding the pace of future interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, the market is pricing in an approximately 88% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut this month.

On the trade front, a federal appeals court ruled that the majority of former President Donald Trump’s retaliatory tariffs were unlawful, giving the administration until 14 October to appeal to the US Supreme Court.

Trading activity at the start of the week is expected to be subdued due to the US market closure for the Labor Day holiday.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed an upward wave towards the upper boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1736. A breakout above this resistance level could signal the start of a new upward trend. However, a pullback within a corrective wave is possible, which would see the breached resistance level retested as new support. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose histogram and signal line are above zero and continue to rise. This momentum suggests the upward trend is likely to persist towards the 1.1780 level, with potential corrections along the way.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a correction as it tests the resistance level. A breakout above this resistance would indicate a resumption of the upward wave. The signal line of the Stochastic oscillator is crossing above the 80 level, signalling a potential short-term correction before the upward trend potentially continues.

Conclusion

The pair is benefiting from a weaker dollar as market participants reassess the Fed’s policy trajectory. All attention is now on the upcoming US labour market data, which will be crucial for determining the pair’s short-term direction. Technically, the outlook remains bullish, with a break above key resistance needed to confirm further gains.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Aug

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 1-Year High, Euro & Yen Bets advance

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Mexican Peso & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (6,903 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,473 contracts), the EuroFX (4,294 contracts), Bitcoin (828 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (300 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,936 contracts) with the British Pound (-6,168 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,703 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,035 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,494 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-117 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso Bets rise to over 1-Year High, Euro & Yen Bets advance

Highlighting this week’s currency COT data is the Mexican Peso speculator positions that have risen for 2 straight weeks and in 5 out of the past 6 weeks. Overall, the Mexican Peso’s speculative positions have been in a continuous bullish position for 31 consecutive weeks as it has only had one bearish week (January 21, 2025 at -1,544 contracts) out of the last 129 weeks, dating back to March of 2023.

The current Peso standing is now at +68,998 net contracts, which marks the highest level in over a year, dating back to July 30th of 2024. The Peso’s speculative strength score is at a modest 64% of its 3-year range with a 6-week increase in strength (trend score) by 9.6% – indicating a strong bullish sentiment but not near extreme.

In the exchange rate market, the Peso has continued to rise steadily against the U.S. Dollar with a recent break above its 200-week moving average. The Peso is now up by approximately 12% on the year versus the U.S. Dollar with the futures price closing at 0.0535 this week.

More Currency Positioning:

Japanese Yen speculator bets this week rose by almost +7,000 contracts and were higher for a second consecutive week. Prior to these latest 2 weeks, the Japanese Yen bets had fallen for 3 straight weeks and for 6 out of the previous 7 weeks. From March 4th all the way to July 22nd, the Japanese Yen speculator bets were extremely bullish and above the +100,000 net contract level for a stretch of 21 consecutive weeks including new all-time record highs in April. Currently, the Japanese Yen speculator positions are still highly bullish but have fallen out of the +100,000 contract range, with this week’s standing at +84,484 net contracts.

The Euro positions rose again this week for a second straight week after seeing declines in the previous 4 weeks. This week’s increase has pushed the net position to a 4-week high of +123,039 net contracts. The Euro positioning has been highly bullish with 11 consecutive weeks of speculator positions above +100,000 contracts. Overall, the euro positioning has been in a bullish standing for 25 consecutive weeks after seeing its last bearish level on March 4th of this year. The Euro price versus the US dollar in the forex markets has been on a strong run this year as well, with gains of approximately 14% against the USD over 2025. The euro started the year around the 1.0335 level and ended this week at the 1.1710 exchange rate.

The Canadian dollar speculator positions dropped by over -11,000 contracts this week and have fallen for 5 consecutive weeks The CAD positions have now declined in 8 out of the last 9 weeks as well, with a 9-week period decline of -51,848 contracts. The Canadian dollar speculator standing sits right now at -105,015 contracts, the lowest level since June 2021. Overall, the Canadian dollar speculator position has been in a bearish level since August of 2023, a span of 108 weeks. Despite the speculator weakness for the Canadian dollar, the CAD exchange rate has been up approximately 5% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025.

The US dollar index saw a small decline this week in speculator positions. The US dollar index overall positioning has now been negative for 11 consecutive weeks. In the currency market, the US dollar index is now down since the beginning of 2025 by just about 11%, with the dollar index trading at 97.69 to close out the week.

Finally, the Australian dollar speculative position fell for a fourth straight week this week and has been down 7 out of the last 10 weeks. This week’s decline brings the overall speculative standing to -100,590 net contracts. This is the first -100,000 contract level for the AUD since April of 2024. The speculator contract level has now been in bearish territory for 37 consecutive weeks, with a 3-year strength score showing just 4.9% – illustrating the Australian dollar’s current level is near the bottom of its 3-year range. Despite the weak speculative sentiment, the Australian dollar exchange rate has been higher by almost 6.5% this year against the US dollar, with the currency ending the week at a 0.6547 exchange.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) lead price gains this week

The currency market price performance on the week was led by the commodity currencies. First, the Australian Dollar rose by 0.87%, followed closely by the Canadian Dollar with a 0.70% rise, and the New Zealand Dollar, which advanced by 0.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index was up marginally by 0.15%, followed by the Swiss franc which had a small gain of 0.14%. The Japanese yen was virtually unchanged on the week.

The British Pound Sterling was also virtually unchanged with a -0.03% decline, followed by the Brazilian Real, which was a tad bit lower by -0.05%. The Euro fell by -0.19%, and the Mexican Peso was lower by -0.39%. The biggest loss on the week was had by Bitcoin, with a -7.22% decline for the last five days.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the Japanese Yen (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (68 percent), Mexican Peso (64 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the Australian Dollar (5 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.4 percent)
EuroFX (75.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (20.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (72.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (42.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (57.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.2 percent)
Bitcoin (44.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (27.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (45 percent) and the Mexican Peso (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-18 percent), Canadian Dollar (-14 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-2.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-28.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-27.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-5.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-10.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-10.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-10.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-18.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-14.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-11.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-10.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (9.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (3.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-15.1 percent)
Bitcoin (44.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (26.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.8	39.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.2	19.6	10.3
– Net Position:	-6,105	6,163	-58
– Gross Longs:	13,158	12,326	3,192
– Gross Shorts:	19,263	6,163	3,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	98.7	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	3.9	9.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 123,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	54.8	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	75.3	5.3
– Net Position:	123,039	-173,206	50,167
– Gross Longs:	258,386	461,163	95,096
– Gross Shorts:	135,347	634,369	44,929
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	22.2	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	3.8	-12.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	49.6	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	37.8	12.2
– Net Position:	-31,353	25,962	5,391
– Gross Longs:	76,001	108,993	32,163
– Gross Shorts:	107,354	83,031	26,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	74.6	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	26.3	-6.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 84,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.8	39.0	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	64.2	9.4
– Net Position:	84,484	-90,150	5,666
– Gross Longs:	170,765	139,358	39,284
– Gross Shorts:	86,281	229,508	33,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	28.2	57.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.2	-3.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	75.1	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	33.2	24.2
– Net Position:	-26,978	33,052	-6,074
– Gross Longs:	6,659	59,259	13,011
– Gross Shorts:	33,637	26,207	19,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	53.4	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	16.3	-24.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -105,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	74.3	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	26.5	12.8
– Net Position:	-105,015	108,560	-3,545
– Gross Longs:	20,397	168,866	25,465
– Gross Shorts:	125,412	60,306	29,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	58.1	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	15.8	-13.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -100,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	70.7	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.6	17.8	11.5
– Net Position:	-100,590	101,285	-695
– Gross Longs:	28,700	135,250	21,247
– Gross Shorts:	129,290	33,965	21,942
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	90.3	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.2	17.1	-8.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	53.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	38.5	10.6
– Net Position:	-6,105	7,911	-1,806
– Gross Longs:	17,143	28,377	3,839
– Gross Shorts:	23,248	20,466	5,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	43.0	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	13.4	-27.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 68,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	35.9	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	79.3	2.3
– Net Position:	68,998	-71,814	2,816
– Gross Longs:	97,158	59,405	6,642
– Gross Shorts:	28,160	131,219	3,826
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	37.3	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-8.0	-18.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.1	43.6	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	68.2	0.9
– Net Position:	28,916	-32,549	3,633
– Gross Longs:	64,875	57,495	4,767
– Gross Shorts:	35,959	90,044	1,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	30.5	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-3.6	-1.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.9	4.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.3	3.5	4.7
– Net Position:	-372	280	92
– Gross Longs:	22,793	1,235	1,382
– Gross Shorts:	23,165	955	1,290
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	62.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.8	-36.7	-24.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Aug

Sterling is demonstrating stability, buoyed by shifting interest rate expectations surrounding the Bank of England (BoE)

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair advanced to 1.3509 on Thursday. The primary catalyst for traders was the latest UK Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

UK producer inflation accelerated to a two-year high, reaching 1.9% year-on-year (y/y) in June. This follows a previous report showing that consumer price inflation (CPI) rose to 3.8% y/y in July, an 18-month peak. Despite these inflationary pressures, money markets are currently pricing in only a 40% probability of a BoE rate cut by the end of the year.

Despite near-term volatility, sterling remains approximately 1.5% higher against the US dollar for August. This appreciation has been driven by diminishing expectations of an imminent BoE rate cut and a series of robust macroeconomic data releases. The hawkish sentiment was underscored by comments from Catherine Mann, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, who stated that policy must remain unchanged to anchor inflation effectively.

In summary, a hawkish repricing of BoE interest rate expectations is providing short-term momentum for the pound.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair completed a downward impulse wave to the 1.3420 level, followed by a corrective bounce to 1.3515. The market continues to develop a consolidation range around the 1.3455 level. The primary scenario for today is a resumption of the downward wave towards the 1.3360 support. A decisive break below this level would open the potential for a further decline towards the next downside targets of 1.3270 and 1.3140. This bearish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing sharply lower.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market formed a downward wave structure towards 1.3417, which was followed by a corrective wave to 1.3517. The current expectation is for the initiation of a new declining wave towards 1.3455, with the potential to extend the downward structure towards the 1.3390 level. This scenario is technically corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently below the 80 level and is trending sharply downwards towards 20, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.

Conclusion

The fundamental backdrop, characterised by persistent inflation and hawkish BoE rhetoric, offers near-term support for sterling. However, from a technical perspective, both the H4 and H1 charts suggest a high probability of a short-term bearish correction. Key levels to watch on the downside are 1.3360 and 1.3390. A break below these support levels could trigger a deeper pullback, despite the positive fundamental drivers.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Aug

USD/JPY Under Pressure as Yen Pares Losses

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair declined on Tuesday, touching 147.70. The move marks a partial recovery for the yen, enabling it to recoup some of its recent losses. Selling pressure on the US Dollar intensified after US President Donald Trump announced the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud. The decision has sparked fresh concerns regarding the central bank’s independence and its ability to formulate policy without political interference.

On the domestic front, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that wage growth in Japan is expected to persist, supported by a tight labour market. He suggested that these conditions are laying the groundwork for a further interest rate hike. Although the central bank held its policy rate steady in July, it upgraded its inflation forecasts and delivered a more optimistic assessment of the economic outlook.

This week, investors are also awaiting the release of key Japanese economic data, including industrial production, retail sales, and consumer confidence.

Overall, sentiment towards the yen remains mixed, with the USD/JPY pair likely to remain range-bound in the near term.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The pair continues to trade within a consolidation range around 147.33. The current range extends between 146.55 and 148.76. A further decline towards the 146.14 support level is plausible. If reached, a new upward wave targeting 151.47 would be possible. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply lower.

H1 Chart:

The market has completed an upward wave structure to 147.92, followed by a downward leg to 147.00, effectively setting the boundaries of the current consolidation range. A breakout to the upside could see the pair extend its gains towards 148.40. Conversely, a break below support could open the way for a decline towards 146.14. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and trending lower towards 20.

Conclusion

The pair is currently caught between fundamental pressures on the dollar and a cautiously hawkish, but data-dependent Bank of Japan. The technical picture suggests a key decision point is approaching, with a breakout of the current consolidation range likely to set the direction for the next significant move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Aug

Speculators raise Euro Speculator Bets while British Pound Bets Rebound

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (13,908 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (3,347 contracts), the EuroFX (3,314 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,286 contracts), the Swiss Franc (765 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (617 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (259 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-9,172 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,982 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,002 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-458 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise Euro Speculator Bets while British Pound Bets Rebound

Highlighting the currency’s speculator data this week was a rebound in the British Pound Sterling and a push higher in the Euro speculator bets.

First off, the British Pound Sterling bets surged this week by almost +14,000 contracts. This follows five straight weeks of declines that had brought the Sterling contracts from a positive bullish position as recently as July 22nd into a bearish position that has persisted for the past four weeks. Previously, the GBP speculator position had been in a bullish standing for 22 consecutive weeks from February until July 22nd.

Helping to dent the British Pound Sterling sentiment was an interest rate cut in early August by the Bank of England. Despite the bearish sentiment in the Sterling, the exchange rate for the British Pound against the US Dollar has been higher on the year and has touched the highest levels since 2021, around the 1.3800 level.

So far throughout 2025, the Pound Sterling is up by roughly 11% against the US Dollar and could see further gains as the US Federal Reserve hinted there could be rate cuts coming for the US economy. In fact, 75% of market participants are expecting a 25-basis interest rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Next up, the Euro currency speculator position rose this week by a modest +3,304 contracts. This breaks a streak of four straight weeks of declines and pushes the current speculator standing to the highest level of the past three weeks. The Euro speculator positioning continues to be highly bullish as spec positions have been over +100,000 contracts for 10 consecutive weeks, with this week’s total being +118,745 bullish contracts. Overall, the Euro has now been in a bullish position for 24 straight weeks after turning bullish on March 11th.

In the exchange rate prices, the Euro has been higher by approximately 15% against the US Dollar this year. Currently, the Euro trades at the 1.1739 exchange rate against the US Dollar and has topped out around 1.1890 this year, which was the highest level seen since August of 2021.

Currency Exchange Rates: Mexican Peso leads price changes for last 5 days

The weekly price performance of the major currencies over the last 5 days showed that the Mexican Peso led the way with a weekly rise of 0.82%. The Swiss Franc was next with an increase of 0.66% on the week.

The Yen and the Euro were both slightly above no change on the week, with changes of 0.19% and 0.16%, respectively. The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a -0.04% change. Same with the Canadian Dollar, which had a decline of -0.10% decline for the week.

The British Pound was slightly down with a -0.27% dip. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.30%, Bitcoin fell by -0.31% and the Brazilian Real dipped by -0.45%. Finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -0.99% decline.