InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The USD/JPY pair fell to 143.58, marking its third consecutive day of losses. The Japanese yen continues to gain ground as demand for safe-haven assets rises amid escalating global trade tensions.

Trade risks boost yen demand

Demand for safe-haven currencies surged after US President Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50% from 4 June. This announcement weighed on Japanese steelmakers, with JFE Holdings and Kobe Steel potentially facing headwinds. Nippon Steel may fare better, thanks to Trump’s favourable comments regarding its planned merger with US Steel.

Meanwhile, tensions between the US and China escalated further as Beijing rejected Trump’s accusations of breaching the recently negotiated trade agreement in Geneva.

Domestic data supports the yen

Japan’s latest data revealed stronger-than-expected capital expenditure growth in Q1. Investment activity increased across both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, reinforcing domestic fundamentals amid global headwinds.

With uncertainty lingering and market preference shifting towards defensive assets, the yen continues to show resilience and may remain firm if current conditions persist.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a narrow consolidation range around 144.22, which the market broke below earlier today. This breakout opens the way for a continued move down towards 142.20. After reaching this level, a corrective rebound to 144.22 is possible. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing steeply downwards, indicating strong bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming the fifth wave of the current downtrend, targeting 142.20. A temporary rebound to 143.88 is expected today, followed by a continuation of the decline to 142.70, with the potential for further movement down to 142.20. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line rising above 20 towards 50, suggesting a brief corrective move before further downside.

Conclusion

The USD/JPY pair remains under pressure due to heightened trade-related risk and growing demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen. Technically, the pair is poised for further decline, with 142.20 as the next key target. While a short-lived rebound may occur, broader sentiment continues to favour yen strength as long as global trade concerns persist.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By ForexTime 

• EURUSD set to end May unchanged; mostly kept to 1.11 – 1.14 range this month
• June 3: Eurozone inflation (CPI) expected to slow in May
• June 5: European Central Bank set to cut rates again, signal future cuts
• June 6: US jobs report may add to US risks – fiscal deficit, tariff rollout, etc.
• Bloomberg model: 74% chance EURUSD trades between 1.118 – 1.149 next week

The euro is flat against the US dollar this month.

At the time of writing, EURUSD is right back where it began May 2025, with just hours remaining in the last trading day of the month (though the US PCE data is still due prior to the weekend).

The euro has clearly lagged behind its G10 peers’ performance against the USD:

(IMPORTANT: The data below was generated before the US PCE data is released)

Imagen

FX markets still gripped by Trump policies

As we enter the first week of June, of course markets remain watchful over:

• US fiscal deficit

The Senate is set to have their take on the tax and spending legislation, which had already been passed by the House, and stoked fears of a widening fiscal deficit (US government spending more than it earns from taxes)

• US tariff policies
  President Trump’s on-then-off tariff rollout, along with the shifting percentage numbers, have rocked markets. 

  Although the shock-and-awe from these tariff-related developments have waned of late, they still warrant constant vigilance.

The above-listed factors will be a common theme during a week that features all these economic events:

Monday, June 2

• SGD: Singapore May PMI
• US30 index: US May ISM manufacturing
• USDInd: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
• NAS100 index: US Senate to hash out Trump’s tax and spending bill this week?

Tuesday, June 3

• AUD: RBA meeting minutes; Australia 1Q current account balance
• CN50 index: China May manufacturing PMI
• EU50 index: Eurozone May CPI; April unemployment rate
• US400 index: US April JOLTS job openings, factory orders
• USDInd: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speech

Wednesday, June 4

• AU200 index: Australia 1Q GDP
• SG20 index: Singapore May PMI
• CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
• USDInd: Speeches by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Thursday, June 5

• AUD: Australia April trade balance
• CHINAH index: China May services, composite PMI
• TWN index: Taiwan May CPI, PPI
• EU50 index: Eurozone April PPI; Germany April factory orders
• EUR: ECB rate decision
• US30 index: US weekly initial jobless claims
• USDInd: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech

Friday, June 6

• EU50 index: Eurozone April retail sales; 1Q GDP and employment (final)
• EUR: Germany April industrial production, trade balance
• CAD: Canada May unemployment
• US500 index: US May nonfarm payrolls

3 scheduled events that could rock EURUSD

For EURUSD in particular, these scheduled events could have a major say on whether the world’s most-traded FX pair could get a catch-up boost:

1) Tuesday, June 3: Eurozone May consumer price index (CPI)

Economists predict that Eurozone inflation eased lower in May:

• CPI year-on-year (May 2025 vs. May 2024): 2%
  If so, that would lower than April’s 2.2% y/y print
• CPI month-on-month (May 2025 vs. April 2025): 0%
  Unchanged from April
• Core CPI year-on-year (excluding energy, food, alcohol, tobacco prices): 2.4%
  If so, that would lower than April’s core 2.7% y/y print

Slower-than-expected inflation, closer to the ECB’s 2% target, should pave the way for more rate cuts. Such prospects could keep the euro on the backfoot.

However, a surprise uptick in the CPI figures may boost EURUSD.

EURUSD is expected to react with a 0.44% climb or a 0.25% drop in the 6 hours after this CPI release.

2) Thursday, June 5^th: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision

The ECB is widely expected to again lower its rates by a further 25-basis points – anything else would be a shocker.

More importantly, forward-looking traders and investors are eager to get more clues about the timing of the next ECB rate cut.

Markets currently predict that, after the June policy meeting, there’s a 78% chance that the ECB will cut rates again in September – the final cut for 2025.

EURUSD could get a lift if the ECB pushes back against such forecasts, setting the bar higher for future rate cuts.

However, if the ECB next week opens the door wide open and hints at more-than-one cut (after next week) by end-2025, that could soften the euro.

EURUSD could move 0.36% up or 0.23% down in the 6 hours after ECB’s rate decision.

3) Friday, June 6^th: US May nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Here are what economists predict for this always-pivotal monthly jobs report out of the world’s largest economy:

• May headline NFP number: 130,000
  If so, that would be lower than the 177k new jobs added in April
• May unemployment rate: 4.2%
  Unchanged from April

The US dollar could weaken/EURUSD could rise on a weaker-than-expected US jobs report (fewer-jobs added/higher unemployment) that makes for a more challenging economic outlook.

However, a still-robust US labour market could strengthen the buck and drag EURUSD lower.

EURUSD could move 0.27% up or 0.8% down in the 6 hours after this US NFP release.

Imagen

Potential Scenarios

According to the Bloomberg FX forecast model …

EURUSD is likely (74% chance) to trade between 1.118 – 1.149 next week.

• BULLISH: If EURUSD can break above the stubborn resistance around 1.1420, then bulls can set their sights on the 1.1490 region – the upper bound of Bloomberg’s FX forecasted range.

A major bout of US dollar weakness may encourage EURUSD bulls (those hoping prices will go higher) to revisit the 1.157 peak in April – also the highest levels since November 2021.

• BEARISH: A daily close below its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) – a critical support in recent days – may see EURUSD re-testing support around the 1.1200/50-day SMA.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The euro/dollar pair continues to decline on Thursday, edging closer to 1.1256 as the US dollar strengthens for a third straight session. This development follows a US federal court ruling that former President Donald Trump overstepped his authority by imposing retaliatory tariffs.

Key factors driving EUR/USD movement

The US Court of International Trade ruled that the tariffs were unlawful not only for the five companies that brought the lawsuit but also for all parties. The court ordered the immediate and permanent revocation of these tariffs, although the Trump administration is expected to appeal the decision.

Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring debates in the US Senate over Trump’s expansive tax and budget bill, which is likely to face substantial amendments in the upper chamber.

Yesterday’s release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed a cautious, wait-and-see stance among officials. Policymakers are evaluating the economic repercussions of recent government measures and the ongoing tariff dispute, with noted concerns over rising inflation and unemployment risks.

Thursday’s market focus will shift to key economic data, including the second estimate of US Q1 GDP and the weekly US jobless claims report.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

• The pair formed a consolidation range around 1.1313 before breaking downward to 1.1210
• A technical retracement to 1.1313 (testing from below) is anticipated today
• If the price breaks downward from this range, the downtrend could extend towards 1.1080
• Conversely, an upward breakout may signal a corrective move towards 1.1485
• The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

• The market completed a downward wave to 1.1313, followed by consolidation and a further drop to 1.1210 in a double-wave extension structure
• Today, a potential upside wave to 1.1260 is in play, with a possible continuation towards 1.1313
• The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under pressure amid dollar strength and political uncertainty, with technical indicators suggesting further downside potential unless a corrective rebound materialises.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The USD/JPY pair extended its gains on Wednesday, climbing to 144.46 as the Japanese yen depreciated for the third consecutive session.

Key factors driving USD/JPY movement

Markets are closely scrutinising remarks from major central bankers and developments in the bond sector.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that ongoing trade discussions with the US are contributing to heightened uncertainty in Japan’s economic outlook. He reiterated the central bank’s readiness to adjust monetary policy if necessary to achieve its inflation targets.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that authorities are closely monitoring the bond market. This comes after both the yen and Japanese government bond (JGB) yields fell sharply following reports that the Ministry of Finance might reduce the issuance of ultra-long-dated bonds.

The potential reduction in bond supply appears to be an effort to curb rising yields, particularly after last week’s disappointing 20-year bond auction, which saw the weakest demand in a decade. Investors are now turning their attention to an upcoming 40-year bond sale.

Additionally, subdued market volatility and a stable external backdrop have diminished demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset, further contributing to its decline.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a downward wave to 142.15 before initiating an upward move towards 145.50, which remains the primary target. Today, we anticipate the completion of this upward wave, followed by a potential pullback to 143.81. A broader consolidation phase around this level is also plausible. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero and continues to trend upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair formed a consolidation range around 143.85 after an initial upward wave. A breakout above this range could see a push towards 145.50, with a possible retracement to 143.85 before resuming the uptrend. A sustained break above 145.50 may extend gains towards 147.20. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80, indicating bullish momentum.

Conclusion

The USD/JPY uptrend remains intact, supported by both fundamental and technical factors. Traders will be watching bond market developments and central bank signals for further directional cues.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.3569 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since February 2022, as the pound capitalised on positive trade developments and strong economic indicators.

Key factors driving GBP/USD movement

The pound’s rally stems from improved market sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone the imposition of 50% tariffs on EU imports until 9 July. Initially set to take effect on 1 June, the delay has granted diplomats additional time to pursue constructive dialogue and negotiate potential compromises.

This reprieve has boosted global risk appetite, providing further support for the pound, which also drew strength from robust domestic economic data.

UK retail sales rose by 1.2% in April, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. These figures underscore the resilience of consumers despite ongoing tax hikes and trade tensions.

Meanwhile, inflation remains elevated at 3.5%, exceeding forecasts and raising some concerns.

The base-case scenario suggests the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by August, with a further reduction possible before the end of the year.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has formed a consolidation range below the 1.3590 level. Today, the pair broke downward out of this range, signalling the likely start of a bearish wave towards 1.3360. A breach of this level could extend the downtrend towards 1.3140, with 1.3360 as the initial target. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line has exited the histogram area and is trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD previously consolidated around 1.3490 before breaking upward and nearly exhausting its bullish potential at 1.3590. Today, the pair formed a new consolidation range below 1.3590 before breaking downward again. We now anticipate a continuation of the bearish movement towards 1.3360. This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line remains below 50 and is descending sharply towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound’s recent gains reflect a combination of improved risk sentiment and strong UK economic data. However, persistent inflation and expectations of BoE rate cuts introduce downside risks. Technically, GBP/USD shows bearish momentum, with key support levels at 1.3360 and 1.3140 in focus.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The euro has regained strength against the dollar, with EUR/USD holding steady at 1.1312 on Friday.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD’s movement

The US dollar remains vulnerable as investor concerns over the US fiscal outlook persist. President Donald Trump’s proposed budget bill – featuring tax cuts and heightened defence spending – has stoked fears of surging national debt.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill could inflate the US national debt by nearly $4 trillion, raising alarms over long-term fiscal stability.

Further pressuring the dollar, Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing widening budget deficits and rising debt-servicing costs.

Meanwhile, investor appetite for US assets has waned amid sluggish progress in trade negotiations.

Although this week saw limited high-impact US data releases, the market has welcomed the brief lull. Today, traders will focus on April’s new home sales report for fresh directional cues.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1255 before correcting to 1.1311, with a consolidation range nearing completion. We anticipate a downward expansion towards 1.1120, supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line has exited the histogram zone and points decisively downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair is forming a downward impulse structure, followed by a correction to 1.1311. Today, a renewed decline towards 1.1240 appears likely. A break below this level could extend the downtrend to 1.1170. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line hovering above 80, poised to drop towards 20.

Conclusion

With the dollar weighed down by fiscal concerns and a credit rating downgrade, EUR/USD may extend its gains. Traders should monitor today’s US housing data for further momentum.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair continues its upward trajectory, reaching 1.3429 by Thursday. It is now trading just below yesterday’s peak, its highest level since February 2022.

Key drivers behind GBP/USD’s rise

The rally follows the release of stronger-than-expected UK inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.5% in April, the highest reading since January 2024, exceeding both market forecasts (3.3%) and the Bank of England’s projection (3.4%). Contributing factors included:

• An increase in Ofgem’s energy price cap
• Higher vehicle tax rates

Notably, services sector inflation surged from 4.7% to 5.4%, signalling persistent underlying price pressures.

Market expectations for monetary policy easing have adjusted significantly. Investors now anticipate just one 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of 2025. The likelihood of a rate cut in August has fallen from 60% to 40%.

The Bank of England reduced interest rates by 25 basis points in May, although policymakers were divided on the decision.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

• The GBP/USD pair completed an upward wave, peaking at 1.3466
• Today, we expect consolidation below this level
• A downward breakout could initiate a decline towards 1.3131, with 1.3300 acting as the first target
• The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line exiting the histogram zone and trending lower

H1 Chart:

• The pair reached 1.3466 before correcting to 1.3388, establishing a consolidation range
• A downward breakout today could see a move towards 1.3300
• The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing decisively downward towards 20

Conclusion

Sterling’s strength persists amid weaker US dollar dynamics and persistent UK inflation. While technical indicators suggest a potential pullback, the broader trend remains influenced by monetary policy expectations and economic data.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair climbed to 1.1243 on Tuesday, marking another attempt to break free from the narrow trading range it has occupied for over a week. This latest upward movement could prove more decisive than previous efforts.

Key drivers affecting EUR/USD

The US dollar came under sustained pressure in the previous session, driven by growing concerns over the widening US debt and budget deficit. These fears were exacerbated by a warning from Moody’s of a potential downgrade to the US credit rating.

Fiscal risks intensified following the House Budget Committee’s approval of President Donald Trump’s fiscal bill, which could add trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade. Despite criticism, the administration maintains that tax cuts will spur economic growth, boost revenues, and ultimately reduce the deficit.

Meanwhile, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, reiterated expectations of a single rate cut this year, citing ongoing uncertainty arising from trade tariffs.

Today, market attention turns to the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence index for May. No major US economic releases are scheduled.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate around 1.1212, with the potential for an upward move towards 1.1300 (testing from below). The current uptrend is a corrective phase following the most recent decline. Once this correction concludes, a new downward wave may emerge, targeting 1.1029 as the initial objective. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line remaining above zero and trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

The pair is forming a fifth-wave structure within the correction towards 1.1300. Traders should monitor whether this level is reached today. A resumption of the downtrend may follow, with 1.1166 as the next key level. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and ascending towards 80.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair’s latest rally reflects dollar weakness prompted by fiscal concerns, while technical indicators suggest a potential reversal once the current correction has played out. With no major US releases, traders will look to Eurozone sentiment for further direction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair declined for a fifth consecutive day, touching 145.25, as the US dollar faced sustained pressure following Moody’s decision to downgrade the US credit rating.

Key drivers affecting USD/JPY

On Friday, Moody’s cut the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing a deteriorating fiscal outlook and a lack of “effective measures” to curb the widening budget deficit.

Meanwhile, domestic data revealed that Japan’s economy contracted in Q1 2025, shrinking by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, falling short of expectations in both cases. This marks the first economic contraction of the year, driven primarily by a decline in exports.

Investors are now closely monitoring Japan’s trade figures, particularly as the potential impact of new US tariffs looms.

In a recent statement, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stressed that Japan would not accept an unconditional preliminary trade deal, especially concerning automobiles. The country remains wary of a potential 25% US tariff on Japanese car imports. While Japanese diplomats are keen to finalise a trade agreement with the US swiftly, they acknowledge that the outcome is not entirely within their control.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has corrected to 146.04, with the fifth wave of decline now in motion. The immediate downside target is 143.50, with further downward momentum expected today. Once this target is achieved, a potential rebound towards 146.04 may follow. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points firmly downward.

On the H1 chart, the pair consolidated around 146.04 before breaking downward. The current focus is on completing the fifth decline wave towards 143.50. So far, the pair has reached 144.80, followed by a minor correction to 145.30. The next expected move is a further drop to 144.15, with an eventual extension towards 143.50. This outlook is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line has dipped below 80 and is trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The US dollar’s weakness, exacerbated by Moody’s downgrade, continues to drive USD/JPY lower, while Japan’s economic contraction adds further complexity. Traders should monitor trade developments and technical levels for near-term direction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.