InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.3602 on Thursday, marking a two-week low amid a strengthening US dollar and growing concerns over the UK’s public finances.

The sell-off intensified after US President Donald Trump confirmed the imposition of 25% tariffs on goods from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, effective 1 August. So far, only the UK and Vietnam have secured exemptions from these new tariffs, which are in addition to existing duties on cars, steel, and aluminium.

London is now scrambling to negotiate a US deal to exclude British steel from the tariffs. Failure to do so could see the rate rise to 50%, posing a severe threat to the UK’s already struggling steel industry.

Further pressure on the pound came from a bleak forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), warning that public debt could exceed 270% of GDP by the early 2070s. Key drivers include an ageing population, rising healthcare and pension costs, and heightened geopolitical tensions, which may necessitate increased defence spending – adding further uncertainty to the UK’s long-term fiscal stability.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

• The pair completed a downward wave to 1.3525, followed by a recovery to 1.3590
• Today, we anticipate a narrow consolidation range near this level
• A breakout upwards could extend the correction to 1.3657, after which a fresh decline towards 1.3520 is expected, with a longer-term target at 1.3465
• MACD confirmation: The signal line remains below zero, indicating a firm downward trend

H1 Chart:

• The market has finished a correction to 1.3590, with consolidation now forming
• An upward breakout may push the pair towards 1.3656, but a subsequent drop to at least 1.3520 is likely
• Stochastic confirmation: the signal line is below 80, trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The GBP/USD remains under downward pressure, with fundamental and technical factors aligning for further weakness. A short-term correction is possible, but the broader trend suggests additional declines ahead.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1746 on Tuesday, with the US dollar holding a slight edge before correcting. The greenback faced pressure after Donald Trump announced new tariffs on 14 countries that have yet to secure trade agreements with the US.

Among the affected nations were major exporters such as Japan and South Korea, which will face a 25% duty on their goods starting 1 August.

Trump also signed an executive order delaying the deadline for reciprocal tariffs from 9 July to 1 August, granting more time for negotiations.

Additionally, he warned of a further 10% tariff on countries aligned with the anti-American BRICS policy, coinciding with the bloc’s summit in Brazil.

Earlier in the week, the US dollar had strengthened as trade tensions eased, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut diminished. A robust June labour market report weakened the case for imminent monetary easing, with markets now all but dismissing the likelihood of a July rate reduction.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD saw an upward wave to 1.1747, with a consolidation range now forming around this level. A potential expansion to 1.1760 is possible, followed by a likely decline to 1.1650, which would set the boundaries of this range. If the pair breaks above the range, gains could extend towards 1.1885. Conversely, a downside break may trigger a fall to 1.1611, with further downside potential towards 1.1570. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero, indicating a sharp downward trend.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair continues consolidating around 1.1717, with an expected upward expansion to 1.1777. However, the bullish momentum appears exhausted, and a downward wave to 1.1700 could materialise at any moment, potentially extending to 1.1611. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this view, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under pressure amid uncertainties over tariffs and shifting expectations for the Fed’s rate outlook. Technically, the pair shows limited upside potential, with key support levels at 1.1650 (H4) and 1.1611 (H1). A break lower could accelerate declines, while an upward breakout may signal a short-term recovery.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The USD/JPY pair edged higher on Monday, reaching 144.81, as the yen relinquished its earlier gains. The currency faced downward pressure following the release of disappointing wage figures, which dampened expectations for further monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan.

Japan’s nominal wages rose by just 1.0% year-on-year in May, falling well short of the 2.4% forecast and marking a third consecutive monthly slowdown. Meanwhile, real wages, which reflect actual purchasing power, declined by 2.9% – the sharpest drop in nearly two years and the fifth straight month of contraction.

Notably, the official data does not yet fully account for the impact of this spring’s record wage agreements, negotiated with trade unions. Several smaller and non-unionised firms have been slower to implement these changes, delaying their effect on broader wage trends.

Further weighing on the yen were remarks from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who stated on Sunday that Japan would not make “easy concessions” in trade talks with the US, despite the threat of 35% tariffs on Japanese exports. Negotiations are expected to resume this week.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 144.33 before pushing upward. The immediate target is 145.33, after which we anticipate a downward correction towards 142.45, with potential for further declines to 141.70. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and points firmly upward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair corrected to 144.11 before resuming its upward trajectory, targeting 146.26. Upon reaching this level, we expect a new decline towards 143.90. A break below this level could extend losses to 141.70. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line currently at 80 and turning downward.

Conclusion

The yen’s weakness reflects subdued wage growth and lingering trade uncertainties, while technical indicators suggest potential volatility ahead.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair soared to 1.1801 on Wednesday, marking its ninth consecutive day of gains. The US dollar remains under heavy pressure due to expectations of a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy and growing concerns over President Donald Trump’s fiscal strategy.

Fed maintains cautious stance while fiscal worries mount

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank will maintain a wait-and-see approach, but he did not rule out a potential rate cut at the next meeting. Powell emphasised that future decisions would depend on economic data, adding that the Fed could have already cut rates were it not for inflationary pressures from Trump’s tariffs.

Meanwhile, the US Senate narrowly approved a massive tax and budget package expected to increase the national debt by 3.3 trillion USD. The bill now returns to the House of Representatives for final approval, fuelling further concerns over the US fiscal outlook.

Key data ahead to guide the market

Investors are now awaiting crucial US employment data:

• Wednesday: ADP report on private sector employment
• Thursday: June labour market statistics

These releases could provide further clarity on the Fed’s next policy steps.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed a growth wave to 1.1777, with a consolidation range forming around this level. Today, an upward expansion is expected to 1.1848, followed by a decline to 1.1750, marking the range boundaries. An upward breakout could extend the range to 1.1885, while a downward breakout would open the potential for a decline to 1.1430. The MACD indicator confirms this outlook, with its signal line above zero and exiting the histogram zone, suggesting an approaching correction as it nears the zero line.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD continues forming a consolidation range around 1.1777. Today, an expansion upwards to 1.1848 is likely. However, it is essential to note that the growth potential is nearly exhausted, and the market may soon begin a downward trend towards 1.1660, with the potential to extend to 1.1616. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing sharply downward towards 20, indicating the building of bearish momentum.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD maintains its strong rally amid dovish Fed expectations and US fiscal concerns, with resistance levels at 1.1848 and 1.1885. Support lies at 1.1750, 1.1660, and 1.1616. Upcoming employment data will be crucial in determining whether the pair sustains its upward trend or reverses into a corrective phase.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.3704, reaching its highest level since January 2022.

This rally was driven by a weakening US dollar, growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and easing geopolitical tensions.

Market expectations for an imminent Fed rate reduction strengthened after Chair Jerome Powell suggested that weaker inflation or employment data could prompt faster action from the central bank.

In the UK, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden signalled that interest rate cuts are on the horizon. They highlighted signs of a cooling labour market, including slowing wage growth and rising economic inactivity. However, Bailey cautioned about reliability issues in recent employment data.

Ramsden, who voted for a rate cut, cited the labour market slowdown as a key factor. He also warned of the risk of inflation falling below the BoE’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, markets are closely watching the truce between Israel and Iran, which has reduced fears of further escalation and potential inflationary shocks.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 1.3622 before breaking higher. The pair has now breached the upper boundary of a broader consolidation range, suggesting potential for further gains. The next upside target is 1.3880, supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed an upward wave to 1.3723. A short-term pullback towards 1.3630 is possible before another potential rally towards 1.3810. This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line is below 80 and descending towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound’s rally reflects dollar weakness and BoE rate cut expectations, while technical indicators suggest further upside potential after a possible brief correction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

On Wednesday, EUR/USD climbed to 1.1621, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains with little interruption. The upward momentum reflects easing geopolitical tensions, which in turn have reduced the demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

The US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains largely intact despite isolated incidents, while oil prices have retreated significantly from recent peaks. However, lingering uncertainties persist – reports suggest recent US missile strikes only partially damaged Iran’s critical nuclear facilities, merely delaying rather than halting its nuclear program.

Market attention remains fixed on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks. Reaffirming his commitment to curbing inflation, Powell signalled that interest rates are likely to stay on hold until the impact of trade tariffs on prices becomes clearer. Nevertheless, markets still price in a 20% probability of a rate cut as early as July.

Traders now await Powell’s upcoming Senate testimony and the latest US new home sales data for further direction.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD breakout above 1.1540 propelled the pair towards 1.1640. Today, we anticipate consolidation below this level. A downside exit could trigger a retracement towards 1.1540, while an upward breakout may extend gains to 1.1670. Beyond this, we expect a potential downward wave targeting 1.1414, supported by the MACD indicator. The signal line, currently above zero and exiting the histogram zone, suggests a likely decline towards the baseline.

H1 Chart:

After finding support at 1.1518, the pair rallied to 1.1640, where a tight consolidation range is forming. A downward breakout appears probable – should 1.1580 give way, a decline towards 1.1518 may follow. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD uptrend persists amid improving risk sentiment, though technical indicators suggest a potential pullback. Traders should monitor Powell’s testimony and US housing data for near-term catalysts.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The USD/JPY pair is falling sharply, dropping to 145.49 on Tuesday as the yen recovers some of its losses after weeks of decline.

The reversal follows a broad weakening of the US dollar, triggered by former President Donald Trump’s remarks on the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which he referred to as a “12-day war.”

Markets largely dismissed Iran’s retaliatory strike on a US base in Qatar – which caused no casualties – while Tehran’s decision not to close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz helped ease concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Domestically, investors continue to assess the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy stance. At its June meeting, the central bank held the key rate at 0.5% but signalled readiness for further tightening, citing persistent core inflation driven by companies passing on higher wage costs to consumers.

Given the yen’s prolonged depreciation, a period of consolidation – if not a full recovery – now appears likely.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY broke above the 145.00 consolidation range, rallying to 148.00 before pulling back. We now see a corrective decline, with a potential retest of 145.00 (a technical pullback to the breakout level). Once this correction concludes, another upward wave toward 148.40 could develop, with a longer-term target at 149.00. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero, having exited the histogram zone, suggesting a decline, at a minimum, back to the zero line.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY completed an uptrend to 148.00 before forming a consolidation range near 146.50. A downside breakout could extend the decline toward 145.00, after which a new upward wave targeting 149.00 may emerge. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downward.

Conclusion

The yen’s rebound reflects both external dollar weakness and domestic policy shifts, with technicals suggesting near-term consolidation before potential renewed upside.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair continues its decline, touching 1.3403 on Thursday, as the pound hovers near a four-week low.

Political uncertainty in the UK and heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid the Israel-Iran conflict have weighed heavily on the sterling.

Today, the Bank of England (BoE) holds its monetary policy meeting, and markets widely expect rates to be kept on hold. Focus will be on the BoE’s forward guidance, particularly amid rising oil prices.

Meanwhile, markets are still pricing in two rate cuts in 2025. Combined with soft UK macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, this has weighed on the pound’s yield and diminished its relative appeal to investors.

Over the past 24 hours, the broad-based strengthening of the US dollar has further pressured the GBP exchange rate.

Earlier, the pound reacted to inflation figures, which came in line with forecasts. Annual inflation eased to 3.4% in May (from 3.5% in April), while core inflation dipped to 3.5% (from 3.8%). However, the reading remains well above the BoE’s 2% target, indicating that progress is still too limited to prompt a change in the Bank’s cautious stance on rate cuts.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

• GBP/USD continues its downward trajectory, targeting 1.3360
• Once this level is reached, a correction towards 1.3496 may follow
• After the correction, another decline towards 1.3240 could materialise
• This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward

H1 Chart:

• The pair is forming the third wave of decline, targeting 1.3373
• A pullback towards 1.3494 is expected before a potential fifth wave lower to 1.3360
• The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending down towards 20

Conclusion

The GBP/USD remains under downward pressure, with key levels to watch at 1.3360 and 1.3240. A short-term correction may precede further declines, supported by technical indicators.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.