By RoboForex Analytical Department
The GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.3252, its lowest level since 11 May 2025, as a resurgent US dollar and disappointing UK economic data weighed on the pound.
Market sentiment has shifted from concerns about inflation to fears of an economic slowdown, while optimism surrounding new trade agreements has bolstered the dollar.
Although warmer weather boosted food sales, the broader economic outlook remains fragile after worse-than-expected PMI figures. This has reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could cut interest rates by 25 basis points as early as August, with another potential reduction before year-end to stimulate growth.
Meanwhile, the dollar gained strength following the announcement of a US-EU trade deal, which imposes 15% tariffs on most European exports, including cars. The agreement has averted a further escalation in trade tensions, providing additional support for the greenback.
However, not all European leaders view the deal as favourable. Many argue that the terms disproportionately disadvantage the EU. While the UK maintains its separate agreements, the broader economic ripple effects are still being felt, given the interconnected nature of global markets.
Free Reports:
Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.
Download Our Metatrader 4 Indicators – Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD
H4 Chart:
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD continues its downward trajectory towards 1.3152, with a consolidation range currently forming around 1.3268. A downside breakout from this range could see the pair extend losses towards 1.3152, followed by a potential corrective rebound to 1.3370. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points sharply downward.
H1 Chart:
On the hourly chart, the pair declined to 1.3225 before correcting to 1.3270. Further downside movement towards 1.3152 is anticipated today, with the Stochastic oscillator confirming this outlook: its signal line has crossed below 80 and is trending downward towards 20.
Conclusion
The pound remains under pressure amid a stronger dollar and a lacklustre UK economic performance. With rate cut expectations mounting and global trade dynamics shifting, further volatility in GBP/USD is likely. Traders will be watching key technical levels for confirmation of the next directional move.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
- EUR/USD: The Advantage Remains with the Dollar Jun 29, 2026
- Escalation of the US–Iran conflict is once again supporting the rise in oil prices Jun 29, 2026
- Oil prices fall back to pre‑war levels. Silver drops to a 7‑month low Jun 25, 2026
- Gold Falls to an Eight-Month Low: This May Not Be the Bottom Jun 25, 2026
- Stock indices came under heavy selling pressure amid growing skepticism about AI investments Jun 24, 2026
- The Pound Is Pressured Not by Politics, but by a Strong US Dollar Jun 24, 2026
- Global crude oil prices continued to decline. The AUD/USD exchange rate hit an 11‑week low Jun 23, 2026
- EUR/USD Remains Under Sellers’ Control as the Dollar Stays Strong Jun 23, 2026
- Gold Falls for the Third Consecutive Week: Is There Still Upside Potential? Jun 22, 2026
- Bank Indonesia raised its interest rate. Norges Bank and the SNB left rates unchanged Jun 19, 2026
