Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 18

US Dollar Roars Back in a Blaze of Glory as Market Shrugs Off Recession Fears

EUR/USD dropped to 1.1110 on Tuesday, with the US dollar surging by over 1% in the previous trading session. The rally was driven by market reactions to news of a provisional agreement between China and the US to reduce tariffs, which helped alleviate global recession fears.

Key factors driving EUR/USD movement

Washington and Beijing have agreed to cut tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, for 90 days.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed plans to meet with Chinese representatives again in the coming weeks to begin negotiations on a broader trade deal.

The tariff reductions boosted market sentiment towards the dollar, which had previously faced pressure over concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade policies were diminishing the appeal of US assets. However, market nervousness is likely to persist until the White House establishes stable trade terms with all key partners.

Attention now turns to the latest US inflation report, which may show how the new tariff policy affects prices.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD broke below 1.1190, completing the third wave of decline towards 1.1065. Today, we anticipate a corrective wave retesting 1.1190 (from below). Once this correction concludes, a new downward wave towards 1.1040 is expected. This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing decisively downward.

On the H1 chart, the market has achieved the local downside target at 1.1065. Today, a potential rebound to 1.1126 is in focus. If this level is breached upwards, a further correction towards 1.1190 may follow. Subsequently, the downward trend could resume, targeting 1.1040. This outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 but poised to decline towards 20.

Conclusion

The US dollar’s resurgence reflects improved risk sentiment following the US-China tariff truce, though uncertainty lingers over long-term trade relations. Technically, EUR/USD remains under pressure, with further downside likely after a brief correction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 May

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index bets for 8th time in 11 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (9,043 contracts) with the British Pound (5,276 contracts), the Australian Dollar (1,571 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (740 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-43,377 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,440 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-2,353 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,612 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-659 contracts), Bitcoin (-550 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-78 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index bets for 8th time in 11 weeks

Highlighting the data in the currency speculator positions is a weakening US Dollar trend while the other major currencies are seeing stronger weekly speculator positions and trends.

The US Dollar index has been in an overall bearish position for three consecutive weeks as the USD Index positions have fallen in 8 out of the last 11 weeks for a total decline of over -17,000 contracts in that time period. This has dropped the speculator positioning to the most bearish level since December 2024. The USD Index speculator strength score, a measure of the current spec level compared to its past 3-year range, is currently at just a 4.4% score and underscores how weak the currency has become in speculator sentiment.

Weak Start to 2025 for the U.S. Dollar

The USD Index exchange rate has had a very weak start to 2025 as it has fallen approximately 9% since the beginning of the year. The American currency Index currently sits at the important psychological level of 100.00 and how the currency navigates this level can determine where things go as the 100 level has acted as strong support or resistance many times in the past, including in 2023 and 2024. The USD Index has recently fallen below its 200-week moving average and has now been under this level for multiple weeks for the first time since 2021.

Euro, GBP, Yen and Peso bullish bets

The Euro, the British Pound Sterling, the Mexican Peso and the Japanese Yen currently all have bullish speculator contract standings against the US Dollar. The Japanese Yen bets have been on a tear in the past few months with speculator bets rising in 13 out of the past 16 weeks for a total gain of +206,270 contracts in that period. The Yen speculator positions, however, did dip a little bit this week and came down from the all-time record high of last week at just under +180,000 bullish contracts.

The Euro and the British pound sterling contracts have also been steadily building higher bullish positions over the past few months with current levels at +75,719 contracts and +29,235 contracts, respectively. The Mexican Peso positions have been trending up as well as it has risen for three consecutive weeks and now the Mexican Peso speculator position is at its highest level since July of 2024 at +68,555 contracts.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar contracts have all been in bearish positions but have been improving week to week from their lowest bearish levels in the first quarter of 2025.

Biggest Change of the Week: BRL

The outlier change this week was the Brazilian Real which saw speculator bets fall by over -43,000 contracts this week. This sharp decline was following four straight weeks of gains that had boosted the overall bullish position to the highest level on record last week. This week’s reduction basically cut the Brazilian real speculator position in third and it now sits currently around +25,000 net contracts. The Brazilian Real’s exchange rate against the Dollar this week rose slightly and gained for a fourth consecutive week. Overall, the Real is about ten percent higher vs the USD since the start of the year.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (99 percent) and the Brazilian Real (65 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (64 percent), EuroFX (58 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and Bitcoin (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.8 percent)
EuroFX (57.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (99.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (100.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (53.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (39.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (59.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (100.0 percent)
Bitcoin (12.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (24.4 percent)

Swiss Franc & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (28 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (21 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Bitcoin (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-12 percent) and the British Pound (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-17.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.8 percent)
EuroFX (3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (15.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (31.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-64.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-67.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.0	27.3	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.1	20.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-1,108	2,486	-1,378
– Gross Longs:	21,251	9,682	2,559
– Gross Shorts:	22,359	7,196	3,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	99.0	11.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	20.6	-25.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	55.0	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	72.8	5.6
– Net Position:	75,719	-131,339	55,620
– Gross Longs:	194,192	405,535	97,040
– Gross Shorts:	118,473	536,874	41,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	36.5	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-10.6	46.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.1	28.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	46.2	13.1
– Net Position:	29,235	-34,736	5,501
– Gross Longs:	94,384	57,797	31,693
– Gross Shorts:	65,149	92,533	26,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	47.6	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	6.3	-1.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 176,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	28.2	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	81.6	5.5
– Net Position:	176,859	-200,612	23,753
– Gross Longs:	204,008	105,878	44,435
– Gross Shorts:	27,149	306,490	20,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	0.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-16.4	30.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	74.1	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	39.4	19.1
– Net Position:	-23,574	24,432	-858
– Gross Longs:	5,558	52,272	12,634
– Gross Shorts:	29,132	27,840	13,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	39.3	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.4	-35.3	32.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	52.2	11.7
– Net Position:	-70,645	76,469	-5,824
– Gross Longs:	16,677	209,571	24,048
– Gross Shorts:	87,322	133,102	29,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	46.0	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.4	-27.0	13.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -48,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	66.4	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	39.2	13.2
– Net Position:	-48,372	49,713	-1,341
– Gross Longs:	26,243	121,539	22,896
– Gross Shorts:	74,615	71,826	24,237
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	59.6	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-19.4	9.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	74.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	36.8	7.0
– Net Position:	-23,135	22,830	305
– Gross Longs:	10,188	45,115	4,533
– Gross Shorts:	33,323	22,285	4,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	59.8	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-22.5	20.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.9	27.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	81.8	2.9
– Net Position:	68,555	-69,687	1,132
– Gross Longs:	86,615	34,566	4,872
– Gross Shorts:	18,060	104,253	3,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	38.4	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-5.6	8.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -43,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.5	26.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	58.1	1.1
– Net Position:	24,961	-27,927	2,966
– Gross Longs:	61,099	23,965	3,952
– Gross Shorts:	36,138	51,892	986
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	34.2	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	11.7	4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.0	7.1	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.4	1.6	4.0
– Net Position:	-1,781	1,541	240
– Gross Longs:	22,936	1,982	1,360
– Gross Shorts:	24,717	441	1,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	100.0	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.6	65.9	16.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 May

Week Ahead: Dollar ready to flex its muscles?

By ForexTime

FXTM’s USDInd ↑ 2.5% from 2025 low
US-China trade talks over weekend could rock USD
US CPI + data dump + Powell Speech = more USD volatility?
US CPI sparked moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 1.0% over past year
Technical levels: 102.20, 100.00 & 99.20

The United States has struck a “breakthrough” deal with the United Kingdom, marking the first trade agreement since Trump announced sweeping tariffs last month.

And this has left markets buzzing with anticipation ahead of US-China trade talks in Geneva this weekend.

Beyond global trade developments, high-impact data, including the latest US CPI, corporate earnings and speeches by policymakers will be in focus:

Saturday, 10th May

CN50: China PPI, CPI
USDInd: US-China trade talks in Switzerland

Monday, 12th May

JP225: Japan current account
MXN: Mexico industrial production
EUR: EU finance ministers meet in Brussels

Tuesday, 13th May

CHINAH: JD.com earnings
AUD: Australia consumer, business confidence
GER40: Germany ZEW survey
ZAR: South Africa unemployment
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
USDInd: US April CPI, Trump visits Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates

Wednesday, 14th May

CHINAH: Tencent earnings
GER40: Germany CPI
JPY: Japan PPI
US500: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech

Thursday, 15th May

CHINAH: Alibaba earnings
AUD: Australia unemployment
CAD: Canada existing home sales, housing starts
EU50: Eurozone GDP, industrial production
NZD: New Zealand food prices
UK100: UK GDP, industrial production
US30: Walmart earnings.
USDInd: US retail sales, PPI, Empire manufacturing, industrial production, jobless claims, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Friday, 16th May

JP225: Japan GDP, industrial production
NZD: New Zealand Business, NZ manufacturing PMI
US500: US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, import prices

FXTM’s USDInd is under the spotlight after securing a solid daily close above the psychological 100.00 level.

The USDInd tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

The dollar has appreciated against most currencies this week thanks to Powell’s hawkish tone and easing trade tensions.

Another major move could be brewing for the USDInd and here are 4 reasons why:

1) US-China trade talks in Switzerland

Over the weekend, US and Chinese officials will engage in talks to de-escalate trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

According to reports, the Trump administration is considering a significant tariff reduction to temper economic pain and soothe tensions. However, China has adopted a more defensive approach toward trade talks, reiterating its call for the US to cancel unilateral tariffs.

Should the talks end on a positive note and open doors to further negotiations, the dollar could rally as US recession fears cool.
If the talks end on a sour note and result in fresh trade uncertainty, the dollar may weaken as US recession fears mount.

2) US April CPI report

The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Tuesday 13th May could influence Fed cut bets.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (April 2024 vs. April 2025) to remain unchanged at 2.4%
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 2.8%
CPI month-on-month (April 2025 vs March 2025) to rise 0.3% from -0.1% in the prior month
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in the prior month

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.4% or declines of 1.0% in a 6-hour window post-release.

A hotter-than-expected US CPI print could push the USDInd higher as Fed cut bets cool.
Should the inflation report print below forecast, this may drag the USDInd lower.

3) US data dump + Powell speech

A string of key US economic data and speeches by numerous Fed officials could inject the dollar with more volatility.

Investors will direct their attention towards the latest US retail sales report, Producer Prices Index (PPI), and industrial production among other data releases, to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches by various Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell may provide fresh clues on the Fed’s next move.

Should overall US economic data print above forecasts and Fed speakers strike a hawkish note, this could boost the USDInd.
Soft US economic data and dovish-sounding Fed officials may weigh on the USDInd.

4) Technical forces

The USDInd could be gearing up for further upside but this will depend on whether the 100.00 level proves to be reliable support. Prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA and respecting a bullish channel.

Should 100.00 prove reliable support, prices may venture toward the 50-day SMA at 102.20 and 103.60.
Weakness below 100.00 may encourage a decline back towards 99.20 and 98.00.

Article by ForexTime

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Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 May

Japanese yen halts gains as US trade negotiations return to the spotlight

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY had an opportunity to correct after two consecutive days of decline, with Tuesday’s trading centred around 143.78.

Dollar strengthens on trade optimism and Fed anticipation

The US dollar regained ground as markets reacted to renewed expectations surrounding US-China trade negotiations. Investor caution also grew ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting, which begins today.

President Donald Trump cautiously suggested that the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports might be reduced. However, true to form, he offered only a vague hint, further adding to the already uncertain outlook for US-China relations.

Markets are also paying attention to the US-Japan bilateral talks regarding trade engagement. Tokyo aims to finalise an agreement before the June deadline, and any delays could complicate the process further.

Meanwhile, last week’s Bank of Japan meeting saw no change in the key interest rate, which remains at 0.5% per annum. However, the BoJ lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts, reinforcing the view that it does not intend to raise rates soon.

Japan observes a bank holiday on Tuesday, so no major domestic news is expected.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a growth wave towards 145.86, followed by the start of a corrective phase. The first downward impulse reached 143.72, followed by a correction to 145.05. The market is now forming a consolidation range around 144.30. A downward breakout from this range could send the pair to 142.75. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, as its signal line has exited the histogram area and points firmly downwards, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

On the H1 chart, the pair is building a corrective structure targeting 142.75. The local correction target of 143.53 has already been achieved. Today, there is a strong likelihood of a fifth downward wave in this correction, with 142.75 as the next target. Once this level is reached, a new upward wave towards 145.86 may begin. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line below 50 and heading sharply towards 20, indicating strong short-term downside momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is currently in a corrective phase as markets digest renewed trade hopes and prepare for the Fed’s decision. Technical indicators support further downside towards 142.75, with a possible reversal to 145.86 thereafter. Trade talks with both China and Japan, along with the Fed’s stance, will remain the key drivers of short-term volatility for the pair.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 May

Speculators boost Brazilian Real and Japanese Yen Bets to New Record Highs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 29th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (18,451 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (18,347 contracts), the EuroFX (10,769 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (5,372 contracts), the Australian Dollar (4,639 contracts), the British Pound (3,469 contracts), the Japanese Yen (1,398 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,160 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (525 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets were Bitcoin (-425 contracts) and with the Canadian Dollar (-38 contracts) also seeing a tiny decline on the week.

Speculators boost Brazilian Real and Japanese Yen Bets to New Record Highs

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is new record high speculator levels for the both the Brazilian real and Japanese yen.

First up, the Brazilian real rose by over +18,000 contracts this week and have now risen for four straight weeks (by a total of over 31,000 contracts) to land at a total of 68,338 contracts. This is now the highest on record and surpasses the previous high of +50,496 contracts that was established on March 8th of 2022.

This has been sharp and swift turnaround for the BRL as net positions were negative as recent as January 28th. The overall net position had been in bearish territory from May 7th of 2024 continuously through January 28th of 2025 before turning bullish. February 4th saw a huge jump by over +38,000 contracts in just that week and set in motion the current bullish sentiment trend.

The Brazilian real exchange rate has been on the move higher since hitting a record low in December of 2024. Since that record low position, the currency has improved by over 10% versus the US dollar. The Brazilian real exchange rate has now risen in 13 out of the last 18 weeks but despite the all-time record high in speculative bets, the currency still resides at a relatively low level compared to the last 3 years, 5 years and 10 years time-frames.

The Japanese yen speculator bets also continued higher with new all-time high record levels. The yen speculator positions have made new all-time record highs for the fourth consecutive week and landed this week at +179,212 net contracts. The yen positions have risen higher in 13 out of the last 15 weeks for a cumulative gain of +208,623 net contracts over that 15 week period.

The yen exchange rate, however, has dipped in the last couple weeks following 3 consecutive weeks of gains versus the US dollar. The yen exchange rate, like the Brazilian real, remains historically low despite the all-time record high in speculator bets.