Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 116

25 Jul

Europe On Sale: Get It While U Can

By Elliott Wave International

On July 13 and 14, the euro and the U.S. dollar briefly traded at parity — for the first time in 20 years.

Just 19 months ago, EURUSD was at $1.2350. It’s quietly dropped 20%+ since.

Quietly? Yeah, because of all the other fireworks in the market drowned out the news.

What would you have done with this knowledge a year and a half ago?

For one thing, you’d have put off that European vacation until now!

Who could have known? EWI subscribers. Check out this forecast from EWI back on January 8, 2021:

It appears that currencies are delivering the early New Year trend reversal that often occurs. The [Euro]’s high at 1.2350 on Wednesday, January 6, completes the five-wave rally from at least November 4, 2020 (1.1604) and likely from March 23, 2020 (1.0635)…Greater bearish potential exists…

Every student of Elliott knows that when five waves finish, you should anticipate a reversal of equal degree.

Here’s what happened since:

Mmmm, I love a good chart.

And a great tweet. Tip of the hat to Mr_Cuddlez!

So, are you ready to catch the next big euro move?

EWI’s Chief Market Analyst Steven Hochberg guides our Financial Forecast Service subscribers 3X/week through the twist and turns in the euro (and dollar) — plus, U.S. stock indexes, bonds, gold and silver — inside his Short Term Update.

Right now, read our forecasts for all of the markets listed above (and more) inside our Financial Forecast Service Test Drive — just $17 for a full week’s access.

Join the Financial Forecast Service Test Drive now.

Hurry: Your one-time Test Drive opportunity ends Thursday, July 28th.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Europe On Sale: Get It While U Can. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Jul

Euro Currency bets continue to decline while US Dollar Index Speculator positions bounced back

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian dollar (3,162 contracts) and the British pound sterling (1,839 contracts) while the New Zealand dollar (1,612 contracts), the Japanese yen (773 contracts), the US Dollar Index (715 contracts) and the Brazilian real (270 contracts) also had higher speculator bets for the week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Euro (-17,501 contracts) and Mexican peso (-7,522 contracts) with the Swiss franc (-2,188 contracts), the Australian dollar (-1,548 contracts) and Bitcoin (-335 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the currencies data is the Euro’s continued decline in speculator bets. The Euro’s speculator positioning declined for the third straight week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks which has taken off a total of -95,017 contracts from the speculator standing in that seven-week period. This decline has quickly taken the Euro speculator contracts from +52,272 contracts on May 31st to a total of -42,745 contracts this week. The EURUSD’s spot price this week had a modest bounce-back following a three-week decline and a dip below parity with the US Dollar last week. The EURUSD currency pair closed the week near the 1.0215 spot exchange rate after gaining by approximately 1.25 percent for the week.

The US Dollar Index speculator bets, meanwhile, rose this week for the first time in the past four weeks and remain near the top of their speculative range. Dollar speculators had taken a total of -6,656 contracts off the bullish position in the previous three weeks and pulled the net bullish position below +40,000 contracts for the first time since June 28th before this week’s small rebound. Speculators have been uber-bullish recently on the dollar and the past four months has seen a strong surge to the upside. Since April, the US Dollar Index price has been higher in twelve out of fifteen weeks and culminated with the highest DXY price in approximately twenty years above 109.00. The dollar strength has been punishing the other major currencies as the Euro and Yen have hit multi-decade lows (versus the USD) with the US Federal Reserve sharply raising interest rates to combat inflation. The Dollar Index spot price cooled off this week by approximately 1.30 percent and closed around the 106.50 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	59,214	87	39,069	90	-41,500	10	2,431	43
EUR	694,106	80	-42,745	22	17,430	81	25,315	16
GBP	228,051	56	-57,250	33	70,299	71	-13,049	29
JPY	229,449	75	-59,225	32	73,082	71	-13,857	25
CHF	41,855	25	-10,912	29	19,205	74	-8,293	29
CAD	142,216	25	6,667	47	-8,746	61	2,079	34
AUD	155,246	49	-43,148	45	49,276	56	-6,128	37
NZD	45,467	35	-3,671	65	7,227	42	-3,556	11
MXN	196,123	47	-30,760	14	27,890	84	2,870	55
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	42,452	30	10,475	61	-11,580	40	1,105	78
Bitcoin	14,512	84	-506	71	-66	0	572	26

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (90.1 percent) leads the currency markets once again and remains in a bullish extreme position. Bitcoin (71.1 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (65.1 percent) and the Brazilian Real (60.7 percent) come in as the next highest in strength scores – also for a second straight week. On the downside, the Mexican Peso (14.2 percent) remains the currency with the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the EuroFX (21.9 percent) which is quickly getting more bearish by the week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (90.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (88.9 percent)
EuroFX (21.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (32.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (31.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (46.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (65.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (17.4 percent)
Brazil Real (60.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (60.4 percent)
Russian Ruble (31.2 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (31.9 percent)
Bitcoin (71.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the New Zealand Dollar (27.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (20.0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13.2 percent) fill out the top movers in the trends data. The Brazilian Real (-35.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the EuroFX (-28.6 percent) followed by the Mexican Peso (-27.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.4 percent)
EuroFX (-28.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (9.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (21.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (29.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (27.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-27.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-25.0 percent)
Brazil Real (-35.6 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-34.5 percent)
Russian Ruble (-15.6 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (9.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-18.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-10.4 percent)

Individual Market Charts:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week rose to a net position of 39,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance by 715 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.8	4.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	74.9	4.5
– Net Position:	39,069	-41,500	2,431
– Gross Longs:	50,234	2,873	5,069
– Gross Shorts:	11,165	44,373	2,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	9.9	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	0.6	-16.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a sharp weekly drop of -17,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,244 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	57.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	54.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-42,745	17,430	25,315
– Gross Longs:	195,875	397,991	82,676
– Gross Shorts:	238,620	380,561	57,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	81.0	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	30.0	-20.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,839 contracts from last week’s total of -59,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	74.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	43.7	14.4
– Net Position:	-57,250	70,299	-13,049
– Gross Longs:	31,943	170,053	19,882
– Gross Shorts:	89,193	99,754	32,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	71.3	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-6.0	-7.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,998 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	69.0	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	37.2	16.7
– Net Position:	-59,225	73,082	-13,857
– Gross Longs:	42,880	158,427	24,496
– Gross Shorts:	102,105	85,345	38,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.4	71.3	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.0	-17.6	7.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	59.7	23.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	13.9	43.3
– Net Position:	-10,912	19,205	-8,293
– Gross Longs:	6,948	25,008	9,819
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	5,803	18,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	74.1	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-12.8	9.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	47.1	22.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	53.3	20.6
– Net Position:	6,667	-8,746	2,079
– Gross Longs:	42,040	67,038	31,391
– Gross Shorts:	35,373	75,784	29,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	61.4	34.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	3.9	-24.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -43,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,600 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	66.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.5	34.3	15.2
– Net Position:	-43,148	49,276	-6,128
– Gross Longs:	30,578	102,518	17,420
– Gross Shorts:	73,726	53,242	23,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	55.6	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	1.4	-16.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	59.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	43.3	13.2
– Net Position:	-3,671	7,227	-3,556
– Gross Longs:	15,791	26,905	2,444
– Gross Shorts:	19,462	19,678	6,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	41.5	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-23.8	-7.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,238 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.0	46.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.6	32.4	1.6
– Net Position:	-30,760	27,890	2,870
– Gross Longs:	97,965	91,458	5,972
– Gross Shorts:	128,725	63,568	3,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	84.4	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.1	27.5	-10.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,205 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	43.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	71.0	4.7
– Net Position:	10,475	-11,580	1,105
– Gross Longs:	20,600	18,569	3,092
– Gross Shorts:	10,125	30,149	1,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	40.0	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.6	36.5	-13.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -171 net contracts.

The current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.2	3.5	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.7	4.0	5.4
– Net Position:	-506	-66	572
– Gross Longs:	10,909	514	1,360
– Gross Shorts:	11,415	580	788
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	53.9	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	26.9	12.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

22 Jul

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 22.07.2022 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern not far from the resistance area. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of a new correctional impulse. In this case, the downside correctional target may be the support level at 1650.00. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may continue growing to reach 1740.00 without any pullbacks.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern close to the support area. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of another ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.6290. After that, the asset may break the resistance level and continue moving upwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 0.6190 before resuming its growth towards the resistance level.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the resistance level. At the moment, the pair may reverse in the form of a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside target may be the support area at 1.1845. Later, the market may break this level and continue falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may correct to reach the resistance level at 1.2055 first and then resume the descending tendency.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Jul

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 22.07.2022 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Jul

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.22

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0176
Prev Close: 1.0228
% chg. over the last day: +0.51%

The European Central Bank unexpectedly raised the interest rate by 0.5%, although Christine Lagarde had indicated that the first increase would be 0.25%. The ECB report indicates that the decision is based on an updated assessment of inflation risks, as rising prices are a growing concern for households and companies. The future trajectory of interest rates will depend on new inflation data. ECB policymakers also agreed to provide additional assistance to the currency bloc’s 19 heavily indebted countries, including Italy, with a new bond-buying scheme designed to limit their rising borrowing costs and thus limit financial fragmentation. Against this news, the euro strengthened significantly.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0188, 1.0154, 1.0106, 1.0035, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is forming a wide balance, and the MACD indicator has become inactive, but the buyer’s pressure remains. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0188 or 1.0106, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0284, but only after additional confirmation and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0000 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.22:

– Eurozone France Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone France Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1974
Prev Close: 1.1999
% chg. over the last day: -0.21%

In the UK, investors are watching the race for Prime Minister’s seat. Former Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss made it to the last round of the contest to become party leaders. A number of reports will also be released today. Traders expect a slowdown in the UK Manufacturing PMI for June and a decline in retail sales. If the data is worse than forecast, the British pound may react with a decline.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1955, 1.1907, 1.1803
Resistance levels: 1.2065, 1.2137

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hour time is bullish. The price has slightly corrected and is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1955 or 1.1907, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered intraday from the resistance level of 1.2065, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1803 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.22:

– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 138.13
Prev Close: 137.34
% chg. over the last day: -0.57%

Japan’s key inflation indicator has further exceeded the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%. According to data released Friday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, core consumer prices (excluding food and fuel prices) reached an annualized rate of 2.2%. The result was in line with economists’ estimates. Despite the continued rise in prices, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to budge anytime soon, as the Bank of Japan remains unconvinced that inflation in the country is sustainable. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda has repeatedly said that current cost inflation is unsustainable and that the central bank needs constant easing until it is demand-driven and accompanied by sustained wage growth. But wage growth has not kept pace with inflation, with May data showing that real wages are down 1.8% from a year ago.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 137.11, 136.48, 135.92, 135.40, 134.64, 134.11
Resistance levels: 138.25, 138.56, 140.29

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But the price has corrected to the priority change level and traded below the moving averages, indicating temporary sellers pressure. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought intraday from the support level of 137.11, but with confirmation. For sell deals, traders can consider the resistance level of 138.25, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 137.11, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.22:

– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2879
Prev Close: 1.2864
% chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent on instruments such as the dollar index and oil. Both the US Dollar Index and oil quotes decreased yesterday. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair traded in a volatile corridor. Volatility in the market increased due to a sharp increase in the ECB rate, which led to a sharp rise in the euro and a decline in the dollar index. Today the retail sales report will be published in Canada. Analysts are predicting an increase in value. If the actual value is better than the forecast, the Canadian dollar may strengthen even more (USD/CAD decline).

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2853, 1.2781
Resistance levels: 1.2934, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is forming a balance and trades at the levels of the moving average lines. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2934, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be viewed on the lower time frames from the support level 1.2853, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3085 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.22:

– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Jul

Week Ahead: Lower dollar if Fed surprises with “smaller” 50bps hike

By ForexTime

Are you ready for yet another jumbo-sized Fed rate hike?

Markets have been preparing for such an outcome at the upcoming FOMC policy decision, which will star in next week’s economic calendar

Monday, July 25

EUR: Germany July IFO business climate
GBP: UK PM candidates’ debate – Rishi Sunak vs. Liz Truss

Tuesday, July 26

JPY: Bank of Japan June meeting minutes
USD: US July consumer confidence
IMF releases updated world economic outlook
Alphabet 2Q earnings

Wednesday, July 27

AUD: Australia Q2 CPI
CNH: China June industrial profits
USD: Fed rate decision
US crude: EIA weekly oil inventory report
Meta Platforms 2Q earnings

Thursday, July 28

AUD: Australia June retail sales
EUR: Germany July CPI, Eurozone July economic and consumer confidence
USD: US Q2 GDP, weekly jobless claims
Amazon 2Q earnings
Apple 2Q earnings

Friday, July 29

JPY: Japan June unemployment, retail sales, industrial production; July Tokyo CPI
EUR: Eurozone July CPI, Q2 GDP
USD: US June personal income and spending, PCE core deflator, July consumer sentiment
Exxon 2Q earnings
Chevron 2Q earnings

Markets have fully priced in a second consecutive 75-basis point hike at next week’s FOMC policy meeting, as the US central bank continues its battle against the hottest inflation in 40 years.

However, that 75bps hike is a relative step down from the 100-basis point hike that some segments of the markets were expecting. Hence the recent unwinding of gains in the equally-weighted USD index. Still, this instrument is well within its uptrend since Q1 2022.

Note that this index compares the US dollar’s performance against six of its major peers, all in equal weights:

Euro
British Pound
Swiss Franc
Australian Dollar
New Zealand Dollar
Canadian Dollar

Any other outcome that deviates from the 75bps script would be a surprise.

DOVISH: A “mere” 50bps hike, though still twice the size of the traditional 25bps rate adjustments per meeting deployed by central bankers worldwide, should prompt more declines in the USD index, potentially moving it closer to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around the 1.175 region.
HAWKISH: Although the bar has been set high for a hawkish outcome at next week’s meeting, a 100bps shocker would reinvigorate dollar bulls into sending this USD index back above the 1.20 line. More dollar gains may also ensue if Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his press conference, refuses to rule out a 100bps hike at upcoming meetings.

Ultimately, policymakers at the US central bank, as well as market participants, will continue to be guided by the inflation data.

And on that point, after the FOMC meeting concludes, next Friday’s release of the June PCE deflator will be closely watched, considering that it’s the Fed’s preferred way of measuring inflation.

The PCE deflator is forecasted to come in at 6.6% in June, which would mean that it has posted a reading of 6% or higher for every month so far this year. 6.6% is also more than three times the Fed’s 2% target, underscoring the tremendous task that the Fed is up against.

Further evidence of stubbornly elevated price pressures is set to force the Fed into triggering even more jumbo-sized rate hikes over the coming months. Such hawkish expectations could then see the USD index being restored to the last cycle high at 1.21859, or perhaps even higher.

Overall, as long as the Fed keeps the “pedal to the metal” while leaving other major central banks struggling to catch up with their own rate hikes, that should leave the buck with an easier path to climb even higher.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Jul

Murrey Math Lines 21.07.2022 (USDCHF, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, having rebounded from the support at 3/8, USDCHF is consolidating. In this case, the pair is expected to grow towards the resistance at 5/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks 3/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may move downwards to reach the support at 2/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its growth.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading inside the “oversold area”. In this case, the price is expected to test -2/8, rebound from it, and then resume moving upwards to reach the resistance at -1/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the support at -2/8 to the downside. After that, the lines in the chart will be redrawn, thus helping us to define new downside targets.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading upwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Jul

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 21.07.2022 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its growth.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading upwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Jul

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.21

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0222
Prev Close: 1.0181
% chg. over the last day: -0.40%

The long-awaited ECB meeting will be held today, and the ECB is expected to raise the interest rate. Analysts are leaning towards a 0.25% hike, even though there is talk of a 0.5% hike as well. Christine Lagarde will not risk her reputation, so it is easier for the ECB to hold the first rate hike of 0.25% and the next by 0.5% or even 0.75%. The attention of investors will also be directed towards the so-called “anti-fragmentation” package, which is expected to be announced together with the interest rate decision.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0154, 1.0106, 1.0035, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But yesterday, the price corrected a little, and the MACD indicator became inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0106, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0284, but only after additional confirmation and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0000 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.21:

– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1988
Prev Close: 1.1978
% chg. over the last day: -0.08%

In the UK, the Consumer Price Index reached 9.4% on an annual basis compared to 9.1% in May. Monthly inflation rose by 0.8%. The biggest upward contributions to the annual inflation rate were made by household services (mainly electricity, gas, and other fuels) and transportation (mainly due to higher gasoline and diesel prices). The last time this level of inflation was seen in the country was in March 1991. The Bank of England is likely to raise the interest rate immediately by 0.5% at its next meeting.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1955, 1.1907, 1.1803
Resistance levels: 1.2065, 1.2137

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price has slightly corrected and is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1955 or 1.1907, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered intraday from the resistance level of 1.2065, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1803 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 138.65
Prev Close: 138.27
% chg. over the last day: -0.27%

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates and monetary policy unchanged. The monetary policy report highlights concerns about the economy above any potential effects on the yen. The BoJ lowered its economic growth forecast for this year, so a falling economy needs continued support. The inflation forecast is 2.3% for the end of the year. Thus, the BoJ is still targeting stimulus despite a wave of interest rate hikes by other central banks. The medium-term uptrend on the USD/JPY currency pair continues.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 137.67, 137.43, 137.13, 136.48, 135.92, 135.40, 134.64, 134.11
Resistance levels: 138.71, 140.29

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive, but the price is still forming a balance. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought intraday from the support level of 137.67, but with confirmation. For sell deals, traders can consider the resistance level of 138.71, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 137.13, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.21:

– BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– BoJ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2868
Prev Close: 1.2880
% chg. over the last day: +0.09%

Canada’s consumer price level increased by 0.7% last month, twice below expectations. But the country’s annual inflation reached 8.1% after 7.7% in May. This is the highest rate since January 1983. Excluding gasoline and food prices, the Consumer Price Index reached 6.5% on an annual basis in June after 6.3% in May. The acceleration in June was mainly due to higher gasoline prices, but price increases remained broad-based, with seven of the eight major components up 3% or more. Thus, there is no evidence of a slowdown in inflation, which means Canada’s Central Bank will keep pace with the US Federal Reserve and raise interest rates.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2853, 1.2781
Resistance levels: 1.2934, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is trading below the moving average lines. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and sellers’ pressure remains, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is best to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2934, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be viewed on the lower time frames from the support level 1.2853, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3085 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Jul

RM Investment Bank Held an Open Day for Its Clients

On 18 June 2022, RM Investment Bank held an Open Day. The event was attended by clients and partners who had the opportunity to communicate with the company’s management in a relaxed, friendly atmosphere.

During the event, the RM Investment Bank team introduced the company and talked about the opportunities, prospects, and cooperation conditions it has to offer. The guests enjoyed drinks, a food buffet, and an entertainment programme. In addition, there was a giveaway of prizes and promotional merchandise.

Dr. Rostyslav Prus, RM Investment Bank Managing Director, commented: “This event helped us to strengthen our relationship with clients and partners so that they choose to continue investing with us. Many of them wanted to meet with the RM IB team before introducing large investors to the company”.

The RoboMarkets group had earlier announced the opening of an investment bank headquartered in Financial Park in Labuan. RM Investment Bank operates under Labuan FSA № 210138BI and its goal is to offer investment services to clients from Asian countries.

RM Investment Bank offers its clients and partners:
7 asset classes and over 12,000 investment instruments
5 account types with competitive investment conditions
Cutting-edge investment platforms
A multilevel affiliate programme

About RM Investment Bank

RM Investment Bank Ltd is an investment bank operating under Labuan FSA licence No. 210138BI. Find out more detailed information on www.rmib.com.

About RoboMarkets Group

The RoboMarkets Group consists of:

RoboMarkets Ltd, a multi-asset broker operating under CySEC (Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission) licence No. 191/13, that provides investment services to European clients. Find out more detailed information on www.robomarkets.com
RM Investment Bank Ltd, an investment bank operating under Labuan FSA licence No. 210138BI
RoboMarkets Deutschland GMBH, located in Frankfurt am Main, with licence No. 10154068
RFund – RFund AIFLNP V.C.I.C. Ltd, an alternative investment fund located in Limassol, Cyprus, and regulated by CySEC under licence No. N. LPAIF118/2014

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.