Archive for Financial News – Page 218

Sports Media Co. Posts Stellar Q4/22

The Canadian firm has a “blowout” quarter of significant organic growth that calls for increases to 2023 revenue and EBITDA estimates, noted an Echelon Capital Markets report.

Playmaker Capital Inc. (PMKR:TSX.V; PMKRF:OTCQX) outperformed in Q4/22 such that revenue and EBITDA were “a large step function” above forecasts, reported Echelon Capital Markets analyst Rob Goff in a March 21 research note.

“Results across 2022 support our bullish view towards Playmaker’s organic and inorganic growth as management has assembled high-growth, entrepreneur-driven partners onto its platform, where additional investment, greater platform reach, and an in-house tech stack drive growth and monetization,” Goff wrote.

Attractive Investment Opportunity

The analyst also highlighted that Playmaker’s enterprise value:EBITDA multiple is “irrationally cheap,” and Echelon rates the company Speculative Buy. Playmaker’s current share price is about CA$0.48 per share, and Echelon’s target price on the Ontario-based company is CA$1.20 per share. This price difference indicates a potential 150% return for investors.

Noteworthy Organic Growth

Goff discussed Playmaker’s Q4/22 and full-year 2022 (FY22) revenue and EBITDA, highlighting the company’s outperformance due to the strength of its acquisitions.

Revenue in Q4/22 was US$18.7 million (US$18.7M), which surpassed Echelon’s US$11.1M estimate and consensus’ US$11.9M forecast. Likewise, Q4/22 EBITDA was beat at US$6.6M versus Echelon’s US$4.2M projection and the Street’s US$4M estimate. Goff noted these figures exclude any revenue contribution from the World Cup.

Q4/22 pro forma revenue (US$19M) and EBITDA (US$6.8M) reflect 102% and 96% year-over-year (YOY) growth, respectively.

Playmaker’s impressive organic growth in Q4/22 was due to a 25% YOY increase in overall user sessions over the whole platform, Goff pointed out. Yardbarker performed the best, achieving 86% YOY growth. Also, Wedge, the newly acquired affiliate marketer, yielded US$5.7M in only two and a half months of Q4/22, “one of the key positive surprises on the quarter,” wrote Goff.

Looking at Playmaker’s FY22 results, pro forma revenue and EBITDA came in at US$47.4M and US$15.3M and also were beat, Goff pointed out. As well they reflect YOY growth of 51% for revenue and 36% for EBITDA.

The company ended Q4/22 with US$8.9M of cash and about US$10M of undrawn credit.

Model Estimates Revised

Based on Playmaker’s “significant outperformance” in Q4/22, noted Goff, Echelon raised its 2023 revenue estimates on it by US$6.6M. The updated amount is US$50.5M.

Echelon modestly increased its forecasted EBITDA to US$15.7M from US$15.2M to allow for greater expenses as Playmaker continues growing.

Disclosures:
1) Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: None. Please click here for more information.

3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Playmaker Capital Inc., a company mentioned in this article.

Disclosures for Echelon Wealth Partners, Playmaker Capital Inc., March 21, 2023

U.S. Disclosures: This research report was prepared by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities discussed herein. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States and is not be subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. Any resulting transactions should be effected through a U.S. broker-dealer.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Company: Playmaker Capital Inc. | PMKR:TSXV

I, Rob Goff, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not, and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Has the Analyst had an onsite visit with the Issuer within the last 12 months? – Meeting with management/investor at Playmaker’s head office (Nov 17, 2022) – Yes.

Financial News Stock Market News

28 Mar

There Never Is ‘Only One Cockroach’

Source: Michael Ballanger (3/27/23)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. reviews the current state of the market, where he believes the Fed is heading, and one gold stock he says is a best performer.

It seems like it was only yesterday that the Great Financial Crisis involving an even Greater Financial Bailout was raining massive stock and bond market losses on the investing public, but it was not on anyone’s radar screen until a small, obscure hedge fund run by Bear Stearns traders blew up in spectacular fashion.

That was March 2008, and only after Jamie Dimon wrangled loan guarantees from the Fed and Treasury that JP Morgan bought Bear for the ungodly sum of US$2.00 per share a mere nine months after hitting an all-time high north of US$170.

That event was the first cockroach that anyone had seen in a kitchen that would eventually be teeming with them. With the U.S. real estate market rocketing northward in a greed-fueled orgy of house-flipping, multiple units leveraging, lying, cheating, and outright fraud, then-Fed-Chairman Ben Bernanke swore black and blue that the subprime issue that brought down Bear Stearns was “contained.”

I learned decades ago at the Wharton School that when the Fed is openly hostile to stocks with restrictive monetary policy, keep your money in your pocket.

The second little critter that slithered its way into sight was the Lehman Brothers implosion six months later in September 2008, when Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, along with all of the member banks of the Federal Reserve, decided to make a martyr out of them, forcing Lehman into bankruptcy and nearly sending the entire financial system into liquidity purgatory.

With Lehman, it was as if someone flipped in the kitchen fluorescent at 3 a.m. because, as Mr. Buffett says, “they all started scurrying around” as it suddenly and shockingly became known that those cockroaches that had been feasting on the spoils of compromised rating agencies and an overly-easy monetary regime were none other than all of the major banks and brokers on Wall Street.

As history unfolded and revelations came to the surface about what really happened, every one of those cockroaches was doomed without a Fed/Treasury department lifeline — bailout — and that is exactly what they got. The problem remained that the issue of moral hazard was severely breached, and for the last fourteen years, the bugs are still feeding on the spilled flour and overturned rice bowls upon which they fed voraciously into the wee hours of the night, which abruptly ended in early 2022.

A couple of months ago, the big crypto bank servicer, FTX, was gutted by a combination of stupidity and greed but had the tight money policies of the U.S. Fed been allowed to prolong the speculative mania, the fraud might have been extended for quite awhile longer. Then two weeks ago, we read of the bank run, and subsequent failure of the eighteenth-largest bank in the U.S., Silicon Valley Bank, along with Signature bank, were taken over by the FDIC in order to protect depositors who were caught in the marked-to-market debacle inflicted upon these regional banks by a Fed that basically ensured investor that inflation (and rising interest rates) were “transitory.”

He Who Loses the Least Wins

Right on the heels of that fiasco arrives the even-greater plight of Swiss investment banking giant Credit Suisse, and after the powers that be conspire to throw them under a bus with a forced US$3.25 billion buyout by UBS, they now have to deal with another extremely delicate situation with news that Germany’s Deutsche Bank is also now having liquidity issues.

The issues affecting the global banking fraternity are not going to disappear overnight because we have experienced over 14 years of a complete and total disregard for the policies needed to provide a sound money environment for workers and savers.

Protecting U.S. dollar hegemony and suppressing the ability of the free market to accurately identify the proper price for goods and services has taken precedence over natural price discovery which was one of the most important attributes of pre-Bretton Woods where spendthrift countries lost their gold and invited regime change through the proper function of the voting booth.

In 2023, those concepts have gone foreign because in a Constitutional republic like the U.S.A., money, not integrity, controls votes, and once in power, even the most honest of politicians are corrupted by the narcotic allure of political power.

Hence, the issuance of trillions upon trillions of bonds with negative coupons were flogged largely into Europe but irreverently into pension and insurance funds with the wink and nudge from the central bank charlatans that borrowing costs would remain “lower for longer,” thus implying little need for hedging the direction of interest rates.

Now that we have an unknown number of banks that are sitting with large portfolios of high-quality bonds bought at prices that reflect a zero rate versus a 4.5% rate, the evil sorcerer called “duration” has cast an ominous spell on those banks that thought the Fed would “have their backs” rather than twisting a very sharp stiletto into them.

As an investor, I am forced to assume that since the kitchen lights are low that the crunching, munching sound from the pantry is not just the one cockroach that I boot-stomped this morning but rather a legion of insectine brothers, sisters, nieces, and nephews all awaiting the harshness of light before scurrying into the cubbies, nooks, and crannies of the kitchen.

Bottom line: this is a very tough market to trade, but those that have simply kept their feet in the stirrups since mid-October has been the real winners.

Just as subprime was never “contained” to just a couple of wild-eyed hedge fund jockeys at Bear Steans in the Spring of 2008, the current problem with depositors leaving the impaired regional banks in favor of the chosen safety of the bigger, too-big-to-fail, member banks is a problem that will be around for a long time.

It is not “different” this time because the only thing keeping your money in any specific financial institution is trust.

It is said of a certain breed of woman in Eastern Europe that “When the money’s gone, the love is sure to follow.” I would forward the same principle for depositors of savings, and that is: “When the trust is gone, the cash is soon to follow.”

The cartoon shown above is a stark reminder of what happens when “the smartest guys in the room” run out of highly profitable (and highly confusing) products to pitch to their clients with one eye on the risk and the other on their bonus poll and many times with both eyes locked in mortal combat. When markets move higher but without leadership and where tail risk (the chance of a negative market event) is high, the stock market wizards have been known to drop back ten yards and punt, meaning, of course, that they opt for the safety of simplicity.

Listening to CNBC this afternoon, there are more bond bulls these days than I can ever remember, and when asked why the emphasis on bonds, it is always because they want to wait “until things clear up” before committing to equities. The reality is that these were the same geniuses that were piling into the SPACs and FAANGS and “story stocks” back in mid-2021, just before the Fed decided to remove the punch bowl. I learned decades ago at the Wharton School that when the Fed is openly hostile to stocks with restrictive monetary policy, keep your money in your pocket.

In bear markets, as the late Richard Russell would hammer home, “he who loses least wins.”

Gold and Silver

The gold market opened above US$2,000 on Friday morning, with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) within US$0.26 of a 52-week high and the highest trade since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early March 2022. I took one look at the way markets opened at 8:30 a.m. with a gap that was immediately filled in by the Crimex pit traders but then rallied hard until the GLD:NYSE opened at 9:30 am, at which point the same selling sent prices straight south.

The market went out with a US$16 loss versus a US$11 gain. Silver eked out a modest US$0.02 gain which was great, but with the equity markets under pressure early due to the Deutsche Bank action, it came as no surprise that the German Chancellor made a calming statement concerning DB after which the boys went to work such that the big “fear bid” in gold and the gap down in stocks were completely reversed by the end of trading.

Allied Copper Corp. (CPR:TSX.V; CPRRF:OTCQB)

Nevertheless, I am looking to take a leveraged position in gold through either options or futures next week, but for now, remaining on the sidelines has kept us from getting whipsawed. Traders must discipline themselves to take positions in silver only during deep drawdown sessions because drawdowns are getting bought and spikes are being faded in daily action best described as “choppy.”

Bottom line: this is a very tough market to trade, but those that have simply kept their feet in the stirrups since mid-October has been the real winners.

Good news should be hitting the screens shortly for Allied Copper Corp. (CPR:TSX.V; CPRRF:OTCQB) where a press release on Wednesday confirmed April 20^th as the date for the name change to Volt Lithium Corp.

They also reported that a position belonging to former Volt shareholders totaling 33,984,000 shares had been filed under a voluntary lock-up agreement.

The stock closed up 10% for the day at CA$0.275 and in an environment where many of the Li names have been under pressure.

The shares are ahead 111.54% since October 31^st, when they first announced intentions to merge, and show up 145% YTD making CPR:TSXV one the best performers on the board. If everything works out as advertised, the upside potential for this company is truly striking.

The group of juniors that I own is still stuck in neutral, and despite the fact that everyone is complaining about the same lack of excitement, it does not make it any easier. I happen to believe that rising metal prices combined with declining energy costs are the perfect elixir for a bull market in the developers which will reward the opportunistic investor.

Disclosures:

1) Michael J. Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: Allied Copper Corp. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Allied Copper Corp., a company mentioned in this article.

Financial News Metals

28 Mar

Shift away from US dollar is happening in real time – why investors need to be vigilant

By George Prior

The US dollar’s dominance is in decline as Russia and Saudi Arabia eye the Chinese yuan for oil trades, and investors might need to begin to revise their long-term investment strategies, warns the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group says the shift in how global oil trading is carried out will have far-reaching consequences for economies and, therefore, investors around the world.

He says: “One of the most significant, but under-reported, outcomes of last week’s three-day summit between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping was that Putin said Russia is now in favour of using the Chinese yuan for oil settlements.

“This suggests that the world’s second-largest economy and the world’s largest energy exporter are actively intending to reduce the dominance of the US dollar as the bedrock of the international financial system.

“Separately, two deals, announced on Sunday and Monday, would see Saudi Arabia’s Aramco supplying two Chinese companies with a combined 690,000 barrels a day of crude oil, bolstering its rank as China’s top provider of the commodity. It’s been reported that Saudi Arabia is also in talks with Beijing to settle with the yuan, instead of the dollar.”

Aramco is one of the largest oil producers in the world and is fully owned and controlled by the Saudi Arabian government.

He continues: “It appears US rivals, led by China, are forming a new major economic bloc. If Saudi Arabia – home to massive oil reserves, which are estimated to be the largest in the world – does move to the yuan that would lead to an enormous shift in the global economic system.

“Oil is one of the most important and widely traded commodities in the world, and it has traditionally been priced and traded in US dollars. This has given the US dollar a dominant role in global financial markets, as countries that want to purchase oil must first acquire US dollars in order to do so.

“If oil trading were to shift away from the US dollar it would dramatically reduce the demand for US dollars, which would lead to a decrease in the value of the US currency. This could have a number of ripple effects throughout the global economy, including hugely increased inflation in the United States and potentially destabilizing effects on financial markets.”

Additionally, a shift away from the US dollar in oil trading could lead to greater economic and geopolitical competition between countries.

“If the yuan were to become more widely used in oil trading, this could significantly increase the economic power and influence of China, challenging the dominance of the United States in major global affairs.”

These shifts are not just theoretic they are “beginning to happen in real time,” says Nigel Green, meaning investors may need to begin to revise their portfolios.

“If oil were priced and traded in a different currency, investors would be exposed to currency risk as the value of the currency could impact the value of their investments. They would need to consider the potential impact of currency fluctuations on their portfolio and may need to adjust their holdings accordingly,” he notes.

There are also industry-specific risks. “Companies that generate significant revenue from oil production or related services would be impacted by changes in the currency used for trading. Investors with exposure to these types of companies would need to evaluate the potential impact of a shift away from the dollar on their investments.”

He goes on to say: “Oil is a critical input for many industries, and changes in the price of it can have enormous, far-reaching implications for the global economy. If oil were no longer traded in the US dollar, it would impact the global financial system and would have ripple effects throughout the world economy.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Investors who are serious about building their wealth for the long-term need to be alive to the impact of the dollar’s decline not in the future but now.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Mar

Silicon Valley Bank sale returned optimism to financial markets, but the situation remains tense

By JustMarkets

In the run-up to the European session yesterday, there was news about the sale of Silicon Valley Bank to another bank, First Citizens Bancshares, one of the most prominent regional banks in the United States, which could become one of the top 20 banks in the United States. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has confirmed that all of SVB’s deposits and branches will go under the new management. Shares of Citizens Bancshares jumped by 53% yesterday. The deal helped calm investor fears about the banking crisis. There are also hopes for additional support for bank financing as the US authorities are discussing expanding emergency lending facilities. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.60%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.16%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) decreased by 0.47% on Monday.

Most economists predict that the United States is likely to enter a recession this year and face high inflation in 2024. More than two-thirds of respondents to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) indicated that inflation would remain above 4% later this year.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that central bank officials are watching the situation very closely to assess whether bank stress has led to a credit crunch that has threatened to tilt the economy into recession.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) increased by 1.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.90%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) raised by 1.44%, and Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.90% on Monday.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said yesterday that inflation remains the main driver of monetary policy decisions. Bailey also made it clear that the bank would be prepared to provide tighter monetary policy if signs of persistent inflationary pressures became more evident.

In Germany, 24-hour strikes called by the Verdi union and the railway and transport union EVG have hit Europe’s largest economy. Airports, including Germany’s two largest in Munich and Frankfurt, suspended flights, while railway operator Deutsche Bahn canceled rail services. The Airports Association estimated that 380,000 airline passengers were affected. In Frankfurt alone, nearly 1,200 flights were canceled for 160,000 passengers. Employees are pushing for wage increases to reduce the impact of inflation, which reached 9.3% in February. Germany, which was heavily dependent on gas from Russia before the war in Ukraine, has been hit particularly hard by the price increase as it struggles to find new sources of energy.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow is close to reaching its goal of cutting oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (BPD) to about 9.5 million. Russia is trying to keep oil prices from falling, as oil and gas have become almost the only source of income for Russia since sanctions were imposed for its invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus further increased tensions in Europe, which contributed to the rise in oil prices yesterday.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.33% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.48%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 1.75%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) gained 0.24%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.10% by Monday’s end.

China’s industrial profits fell by 22.9% in the first two months of this year. Factories and large industrial companies struggled to recover from COVID-related disruptions. Overall, investor sentiment in Asia remains jittery due to concerns about banking stress and its impact on global growth.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,977.53 +6.54 (+0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30)32,432.08 +194.55 (+0.60%)

DAX (DE40) 15,127.68 +170.45 (+1.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,471.77 +66.32 (+0.90%)

USD Index 102.83 -0.28 (-0.27%)

Important events for today:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 11:45 (GMT+2);
– US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Mar

Market Mood Improves As Banking Fears Ease

By ForexTime

European markets flashed green on Tuesday along with Asian equities as fears over a looming banking crisis eased.

A deal backed by U.S regulators for First Citizens Bank to purchase failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has boosted global sentiment and cooled jitters over the banking sector. The renewed appetite for risk is likely to stimulate demand for global equities at the expense of safe haven assets. However, some caution still lingers from the recent market chaos and this could encourage investors to think twice before jumping on the risk train. U.S futures are pointing to a mixed open as market players await the Senate hearings on Silicon Valley Bank. Looking at commodities, gold struggled to nurse wounds from Monday’s selloff as easing bank fears dulled its allure.

This week, financial markets will focus on key inflation figures from across the globe, speeches by Fed officials, and the U.S Senate hearings on Silicon Valley Bank. Although some normality seems to be returning to markets, this could easily be disrupted by negative news or data that rekindle concerns not only over the banking sector but also inflation.

More Pain Ahead For USD?

The past few weeks have not been kind to the dollar.

It has weakened against most G10 currencies since the start of March thanks to growing expectations around the Federal Reserve slowing and eventually halting rate hikes in the face of the banking turmoil. Although fears of a full-blown crisis have cooled, markets still expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rates by 50 basis points by September.

These expectations could be intensified by the upcoming hearings on Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and U.S inflation data on Friday. If the mid-week hearings before the House and Senate reveal fresh information on the chaos witnessed in the U.S banking sector, this could rekindle contagion fears, ultimately hitting the dollar as rate cut expectations mount. Regarding the inflation data, the Core PCE Deflator for February is expected to show inflation rising 4.7%, which would match January’s annual figure. Ultimately, a report that meets or prints below forecasts could fuel speculation around the Fed’s next move being a rate cut. Although the path of least resistance for the dollar is starting to point south, hawkish commentary from Fed officials could limit downside losses.

Currency spotlight: EURUSD

It could be a wild week for the EURUSD due to high-risk events and key inflation data.

The currency pair has kicked off the week on a positive note, pushing higher thanks to a weaker dollar. Given how the looming US Senate hearings and speeches from Fed officials mid-week will influence the dollar, this could translate to more volatility in EURUSD. Things could really spice up on Friday due to inflation data from the eurozone and the United States. Headline eurozone inflation is expected to fall sharply in March to 7.1% from 8.5% seen in the previous month. But the ECB is more focused on the core readings, so if these decline, this may weaken the euro as investors ponder whether the ECB may pause rate hikes down the road.

Looking at the technical picture, the EURUSD has the potential to push higher towards 1.09 if a solid daily close above the 1.08 level is achieved. Should bulls run out of steam, prices may slip back towards 1.0750 and 1.0710, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Investor appetite for gold has been dampened by a combination of technical and fundamental forces.

After kissing the psychological $2000 level three times last week, bears have exploited this stubborn resistance to attack, with easing banking fears further dulling the metal’s safe haven allure. While prices could trade lower in the shorter term to medium term, the longer term still remains in favour of bulls due to expectations around the Fed cutting interest rates in September.

Looking at the technical picture, gold seems to be experiencing a pullback after failing to conquer the $2000 level. This could see the precious metal dip once again towards $1955 and $1935 before the bulls re-enter the scene. If prices break below $1925, gold is likely to test $1900.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Mar

Gold Shines Brighter Even in Difficult Times: What is the Reason for the Price Increase

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold continues its impressive streak of gains for the fourth week in a row. At the beginning of this week, the price of a troy ounce of the precious metal is around 1,973 USD.

This increase in the price of gold indicates that the market is looking for a “safe haven” from the effects of the banking crisis, which remains one of the main threats to the global economy. In addition, the US Federal Reserve’s ambiguous stance on the future interest rate makes gold quite attractive to investors.

At the end of last week, the European banking sector came under pressure again, which caused an increase in anxiety in stock markets around the world. The concern was caused by the decline in the shares of the largest European bank Deutsche Bank.

Against the backdrop of this uncertainty, gold is again becoming a “safe haven” for the capital market, which makes it one of the most demanding investment assets in the face of economic uncertainty. Some analysts believe that the price of gold may continue to rise in the near future, until there is stability in the financial markets.

On H4, XAU/USD has performed an impulse of decline to 1934.24 and growth to 2003.30. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming at these levels. If the price breaks out of it downwards, a link of correction to 1895.00 might follow. If the price breaks through upwards, the wave might continue to 2012.12. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD. Its signal line is above zero, directed strictly down to renew the lows.

On H1, XAU/USD has performed a structure of decline to 1977.90. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming around it. With an escape from it downwards, the wave might continue to 1952.50. Then growth to 1977.90 might follow, and then — a decline to 1927.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above 20, aiming strictly upwards.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

27 Mar

The fall of Deutsche Bank has renewed tensions in the banking sector. Oil prices are under pressure

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.40% (+1.15% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.41% (+1.37% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.31% on Friday (+1.80% for the week).

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, in line with expectations, but signaled that the hike cycle might be coming to an end in response to nervousness about US banks after the unexpected collapse of two medium-term regional small banks. According to analysts, the turmoil in the banking sector, which caused turmoil on Wall Street earlier this month, is likely to lead to a credit crunch for households and businesses in the coming months, creating a meaningful process of disinflation. This will ease the pressure on the central bank, limiting the need for overly restrictive policies. The economy does not yet reflect the real problems that will result from a significant tightening of lending standards, but the negative effects will soon become visible.

While Fed officials still view the possibility of additional rate hikes as a high probability, financial markets are now leaning toward a probability (85%) that there will be no rate hike at all at the Central Bank’s next policy meeting in May.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.66% (+1.64% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 1.74% (+1.65% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 2.10% (+1.26% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was down by 1.26% (+0.95% for the week).

On Friday, bank stocks in Europe fell sharply, with Deutsche Bank and UBS Group suffering the most due to fears that problems in the banking sector may persist. Investor attention has recently focused on the German giant Deutsche Bank. Its shares have lost more than a quarter of their value this month, including an 8.5% drop on Friday, and the cost of default protection on its bonds has risen sharply. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Friday at a news conference in Brussels that Deutsche Bank “has carefully reorganized and modernized its business model and is a very profitable bank,” adding that there was no reason to speculate about its future. But that hasn’t reassured investors. Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, said Sunday that risks to financial stability had risen and urged continued vigilance.

The shadow banking sector is a “weak point in the financial system” and could trigger the next financial crisis, European Central Bank (ECB) vice president Luis de Guindos has warned. In his opinion, the European banking sector is “reliable and stable,” but the non-banking sector “could become a source of problems for the entire financial sector.

Ukraine demands an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council over Putin’s intentions to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. NATO criticizes Putin for his “dangerous and irresponsible” nuclear rhetoric. While the US downplayed concerns about Putin’s statement, NATO said the Russian president’s pledge of nuclear non-proliferation was far from the truth.

The consequences of banks weakening their role in commodities could be far-reaching and negative. How are banks related to oil? No barrel of crude oil can move without financing or liquidity provided by banks. Banks are market makers for all commodities, not just oil, because they bring buyers and sellers together. Therefore, independent oil and gas producers may have limited ability to hedge price risks associated with investments and inventories. A possible recession in the United States, sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, the release of strategic reserves, and strikes at refineries in France are all shaking up oil markets. For the growth of oil prices now, it is necessary for the situation in the banking sector to calm down, and demand in China began to recover on the threshold of summer.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.56% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 2.18% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 2.91%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreased by 0.07%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week down by 0.56%. Most Asian stocks fell Monday amid renewed fears of new bank defaults in the US and Europe, with Chinese markets falling the most as weak results drove oil and gas stocks lower.

In the commodities market, futures on cocoa (+5.19%), orange juice (+4.7%), copper (+4.64%), silver (+4.02%), WTI oil (+3.39%), gasoline (+3.17%) and Brent (+2.78%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on lumber (-8.46%), natural gas (-6.72%), soybeans (-3.18%), and wheat (-2.89%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,970.99 +22.27 (+0.56%)

Dow Jones (US30)32,237.53 +132.28 (+0.41%)

DAX (DE40) 14,957.23 −253.16 (−1.66%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,405.45 −94.15 (−1.26%)

USD Index 103.12 +0.58 (+0.57%)

Important events for today:

– German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 20:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Mar

Overseas Buyers Scoop Up U.S. Shares (Bullish or Bearish)?

“No crowd buys stocks of other countries intelligently”

By Elliott Wave International

The fact that investors from other countries are feverishly buying U.S. stocks might seem like a bullish sign.

On the other hand, consider what Robert Prechter said in his book, Prechter’s Perspective:

No crowd buys stocks of other countries intelligently. For decades, heavy foreign buying in the U.S. stock market has served as an excellent indicator of major tops.

Some of the heaviest foreign buying — whether it’s in the U.S. or another country — tends to occur when a trend is near or at an end.

Looking at an example: In the late 1980s, after years on the sidelines, foreigners became net buyers of Japanese stocks. This coincided with the ending phase of one of the biggest bull markets in history.

Returning to the U.S. but sticking with roughly that same period of history, here’s what the Sept. 2000 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus financial markets, had to say as it showed this chart:

This chart of the Dow and foreigners’ net purchases of U.S. equities illustrates how beautifully the pattern has held through the U.S. bull market of the 1990s. The solid lines show the flood of foreign buyers within a month of each high, and the dotted lines show them rushing back out again on the months of the big lows. Early in the decade, when stocks were a bargain, foreigners were net sellers. They did not sustain net purchases until the Dow crossed 8000 in 1997.

By the way, overseas buyers also zealously bought U.S. shares right before the 2007 top.

As a quick reminder, the reason for mentioning all of this is what I said at the outset about feverish overseas buying of U.S. shares presently. Here are more details via this chart and commentary from our March Financial Forecast:

Foreigners are surging back into U.S. equities. At $42.9 billion in November, the latest reading of foreign purchases is higher than both the 2000 and 2007 buying extremes. It is shy of the December 2020 record of $78.6 billion, but if foreigners flocked to U.S. stocks the way retail investors did in January, we may find that when the latest readings are released, foreign purchases will be at a new record.

One way to utilize the foreign buying (or, selling) indicator is with the Elliott wave model.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis, or simply need a refresher on the subject, check out EWI’s FreePass for a Changed World event – thru March 31.

FreePass for a Changed World will give you an in-depth look at the analysis you can use to anticipate changes in inflation, interest rates and every other major category of investment concern.

Subscribers gladly pay $97 per month to get the market forecasts you’ll get for free in FreePass for a Changed World. But for FreePass, there’s no credit card required and zero strings attached.

Risks have changed. Opportunities have changed. The world has changed, in very real ways.

Join FreePass for a Changed World now and find out what your new strategies must include.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Overseas Buyers Scoop Up U.S. Shares (Bullish or Bearish)?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

26 Mar

COT Stock Market Speculators raised their SP500-Mini bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

* This COT data is fully up-to-date after weeks of delays due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). The hacking incident had disrupted the ability for the CFTC to report large trader positions.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (11,856 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,315 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,438 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (1,352 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-82,661 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19,234 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-2,068 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT stocks data this week is the bearish bets in the S&P500-Mini speculative positions. The large speculator position in S&P500-Mini futures dropped this week by over -80,000 contracts and fell for the second time in three weeks. The S&P500-Mini bets have now been in a bearish net position for the past 40 straight weeks, dating back to June 14th of 2022.

The current overall speculator level is currently at a highly bearish net position level of -202,480 speculator contracts with a bearish-extreme strength score level (18.7 percent) and while the 6-week strength trend actually posted a small gain of 2.8 percent (see strength scores further below).

The S&P500 stock futures price has been very resilient over the past month with a combination of rate hikes and a banking crisis not being able to knock the price from its short-term uptrend that started in October. The S&P500 stock futures price closed the week right around the psychological level of 4000.00 after making small gains in the past two weeks.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,149,005	12	-202,480	19	266,455	84	-63,975	13
Nikkei 225	10,419	0	-930	73	795	34	135	30
Nasdaq-Mini	214,876	22	-5,120	72	16,858	37	-11,738	31
DowJones-Mini	81,747	41	-22,148	17	30,063	99	-7,915	0
VIX	330,622	57	-49,649	78	52,093	20	-2,444	79
Nikkei 225 Yen	34,599	9	3,577	45	8,390	34	-11,967	63

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (78 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (73 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (17 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (19 percent) are the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (18.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (17.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (71.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (73.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (66.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (50.7 percent)

Russell-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent), the Nikkei 225 (10 percent) and the VIX (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (3.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (19.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-41.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-28.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (5.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (18.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (10.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (12.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (14.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (49.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	53.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	37.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-49,649	52,093	-2,444
– Gross Longs:	58,803	175,971	26,589
– Gross Shorts:	108,452	123,878	29,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	19.8	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-12.9	20.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -202,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -82,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,819 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	78.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	65.8	12.6
– Net Position:	-202,480	266,455	-63,975
– Gross Longs:	203,125	1,681,318	205,770
– Gross Shorts:	405,605	1,414,863	269,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	84.3	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	7.8	-14.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -22,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	67.5	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.2	30.7	22.6
– Net Position:	-22,148	30,063	-7,915
– Gross Longs:	15,604	55,161	10,581
– Gross Shorts:	37,752	25,098	18,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	98.9	0.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.8	45.9	-30.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	59.1	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	51.3	20.2
– Net Position:	-5,120	16,858	-11,738
– Gross Longs:	53,063	127,004	31,697
– Gross Shorts:	58,183	110,146	43,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	36.9	31.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-8.2	6.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -44,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	85.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	76.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-44,988	44,694	294
– Gross Longs:	40,762	411,188	22,631
– Gross Shorts:	85,750	366,494	22,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	55.6	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-11.9	-27.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	52.6	26.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	44.9	25.0
– Net Position:	-930	795	135
– Gross Longs:	2,200	5,476	2,743
– Gross Shorts:	3,130	4,681	2,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	34.0	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-13.7	6.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	87.6	0.5
– Net Position:	-14,077	7,542	6,535
– Gross Longs:	30,891	348,705	8,454
– Gross Shorts:	44,968	341,163	1,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	68.1	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-14.8	2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

24 Mar

Global markets turbulent on bank fears, investors eye buying opportunities

By George Prior

Heightening volatility in major stock markets around the world, triggered by concerns of the global banking system, will be used by investors as a buying opportunity, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The observation from deVere Group’s Nigel Green come as US stock futures fell on Friday, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 1.5% by mid-morning, following a mixed session in Asia-Pacific markets.

He says: “Deutsche Bank shares have dropped for a third consecutive day – they’re now down 13% – and have now lost more than a fifth of their value so far this month.

“The emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS, in the wake of the collapse of the US based Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Banks, has triggered a wave of contagion fears among investors, which was further exacerbated by more monetary policy tightening from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday.”

The deVere CEO continues: “The growing sense of unease about the global banking system is heightening volatility in stock markets around the world.

“Savvy investors will be using this turbulence as a buying opportunity because the current creeping fearful sentiment doesn’t just hit the banking sector, it becomes more generalised.

“This brings down the prices of other high-quality stocks and investors seize on this to top-up their portfolios at lower entry points.

“Clearly, they won’t want to miss out on some key opportunities, but they must also avoid the ‘buy everything’ mindset.”

Whilst inflation remains a major headwind, Nigel Green explains, investors should “remain alive to other metrics” in investment decision-making.

When costs are going up, investors should increasingly be looking at a company’s ability to maintain margin.

“Investors should be paying close attention to margin because it can indicate how well a company is managing costs and competing in its industry.

“It can also impact a corporation’s ability to invest in growth opportunities or pay dividends” to shareholders.

“A good fund manager will help investors seek out the opportunities and mitigate potential risks as and when they are presented to generate and build their wealth.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “As concerns about the stability of banks persist, we expect further and intensifying market volatility. This will be used, as it always is, by investors to bolster their investment portfolios.

“This can prove to be an extremely effective strategy, but advice should be sought from a quality fund manager.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.